Daily Technical Analysis for Majors by Dukascopy

[KristinaDC]

XAU/USD reveals its pattern

A third attempt of the yellow metal to break through the resistance levels, which are located just above the 1,250 mark. However, the metals price is also not retreating, as the combined support of the various simple moving averages is providing the needed strength for the metal. Meanwhile, while looking back a the few previous trading sessions, one can notice that in the recent days the commodity price has formed an ascending triangle pattern. In accordance with the pattern the bullion’s price is setting itself up for a breakout to the upside, as pressure has been building up against the resistance of the 1,250 mark while the metal has gradually shown higher bounce off low levels.

 

[KristinaDC]

EUR/USD reveals short term pattern

Due to the fact that the EUR/USD pair was not jumping in the free range up to the combined resistance of the monthly R2 at 1.1546 and the upper trend line of the massive scale descending channel pattern at 1.1550, a review of the short term situation was done. As a result of the review a rather weak short term ascending channel was discovered. In accordance with the pattern it is likely that that the 1.15 mark will be reached by the end of the day’s trading session. In addition, the rate could be at the 1.1550 mark during the first half of next week. However, it could be observed during the late hours of Thursday’s trading and early hours of Friday that the 1.1450 level was providing resistance in itself.

 

[KristinaDC]

GBP/USD: decrease in sight

Thursday’s trading session was characterized by strong upside momentum that was stopped by the monthly R1 near the 1.3036 mark. The given direction reveals the formation of a minor ascending channel that would suggest a fall down to the 55-hour SMA or the monthly PP at 1.2938 and 1.2903, accordingly. Even though technical indicators remain bullish, trend indicators demonstrate that the given up-trend is decreasing in strength, thus confirming a possible move south in this session. On Monday morning, however, the rate may return near the 1.3000 if the channel-up boundaries are respected. By and large, the rate is expected to trade in the 1.3036/1.2903 area. Being so close to the upper channel boundary means that positive UK Current Account data may breach the upper limit for a while.

 

[KristinaDC]

USD/JPY enters consolidation

Following the massive plunge mid-Thursday, USD/JPY entered in a minor consolidation phase, thus being stranded between the 55– and 200-hour SMAs at 111.69 and 112.21, respectively. The pair found support at the monthly PP at 111.80 prior to moving north. An immediate resistance is provided by the aforementioned 55-hour SMA, while the next resistance located at the 113.36 mark is a distant target. Technical indicators demonstrate mixed results; thus the possible direction of the US Dollar is unclear. In case bullish sentiment prevails in this session, the rate may approach the 55-hour SMA and may even breach it. Nevertheless, the base scenario favours the rate continuing to move sideways, remaining in the 111.70/112.20 territory.

 

[KristinaDC]

XAU/USD breaks out of triangle

Although it was possible that the metal’s price will break out of the ascending triangle pattern to the upside, as it should have been in accordance with this pattern’s theoretical framework that did not occur. Instead the bullion sharply dropped and reached the 1,240 mark, which acted as a support. Most likely the 1,240 level was set as a stop loss by short sellers, as the metal managed to quickly reach above the 1,245 mark in the next few hours. In regards to the future outlook of the commodity price, it has to be noted that the metal faces the resistance of all of the simple moving averages, which are used by Dukascopy, at the 1,249 mark. Most likely the combined resistance will force gold into a retreat.

 

[KristinaDC]

EUR/USD remains above 1.14 mark



As the 1.1450 mark held its ground against the surge of the Euro against the US Dollar on Friday, the pair traded lower on Monday morning. The currency pair had declined and even passed the support of the 55-hour SMA, which held up the EUR/USD pair throughout Friday’s trading, As a result of the mentioned move, the closest support to the currency exchange rate on Monday morning was the 23.60% Fibonacci retracement level at the 1.1388 mark. Meanwhile, the 100-hour SMA was approaching from the downside, as it was located near the 1.1375 level during the morning hours of today’s trading. It is most likely that the simple moving average will force the pair into a surge, as the combined support of the retracement level and SMA should provide a strong enough support for a rebound to occur.

 

[KristinaDC]

GBP/USD has lost upside momentum

GBP/USD was not able to maintain its upside momentum, resulting in a fall down to the 55-hour SMA. Subsequently, the pair returned near Friday’s upside limit circa 1.3030 and depreciated once more down to the 55-hour SMA. Technical indicators suggest that the Pound may still respect the boundaries of the ascending channel in this trading session, but the 1.3050/60 area may limit its gains. The upside trend is non-existent at this point; thus a possible move sideways should breach the bottom channel line on Tuesday. The Pound may find support at the 55-hour SMA once again; however, bearish sentiment may prevail and push the British currency below the given level. In case of strong downside risks, the rate is likely to be supported by the 100-hour SMA near 1.2950.

 

[KristinaDC]

USD/JPY tests down-trend

USD/JPY demonstrated slight momentum sideways until mid-Friday when the pair surged up to the 112.60 mark. The given appreciation was not hindered by the 100– and 55-hour SMAs; however, the given lines provided enough support to make a U-turn early today. The US Dollar has approached an intermediate down-trend near the 112.90 mark, suggesting that its direction may turn south. Meanwhile, technical indicators still predict some minor upside potential. Its scope, however, is yet to be seen. From downside, the pair may find support by the 55-, 100– or 200-hour SMAs. In case strong bearish momentum takes over, the main bottom limit for the following 24 hour should be the monthly PP at 111.39, reinforced by all three SMAs on the daily chart.

 

[KristinaDC]

XAU/USD passes long term support

On Monday morning, the yellow metal’s price fell below the 1,240 mark. However, the most notable detail to the decline of the bullion is the fact that the commodity price had fallen below the support line of the long term ascending channel. This move was expected, as it is consistent with the situation on the charts from a pattern drawing perspective. The bullion is still in a massive scale descending channel. The upper trend line of that channel was reached and the fall of the metal began. Due to the fact that the long term support has been passed, an extension of the decline of the yellow metal’s price can be expected. However, for the purpose of finding where short term pauses will occur, market participants should look at the weekly and monthly pivot points.

 

[KristinaDC]

EUR/USD retreats below 1.14 mark

On Tuesday morning, the common European currency had retreated below the 1.1350 mark against the US Dollar. However, the combined support of the weekly and monthly pivot points at 1.1348 and 1.1331, respectively, proved strong enough to force the currency exchange rate for a rebound. It can be expected that the pair regains some of the lost ground before it faces a notable resistance level. Most likely the resistance will be provided by the 23.60% Fibonacci retracement level at the 1.1388 mark. The retracement level is set to be reinforced by the resistance of the 55- and 100-hour SMAs, which were located at 1.1396 on Tuesday morning. It could be clearly observed that the simple moving averages will approach the pair from the upside.

 

[KristinaDC]

GBP/USD limited by 100-hour SMA

The Pound responded negatively to weak UK Manufacturing PMI mid-Monday, thus pushing the rate through the bottom channel boundary. The subsequent action did not form any distinctive direction and resulted in slight volatility sideways. The 100-hour SMA was breached to the downside with little hindrance; however, it did continue to function effectively as a resistance level. It seems that the bearish sentiment may prevail in the upcoming hours prior to edging higher late Tuesday. Immediate support is formed by the 100– and 55-hour SMAs at 1.2958 and 1.2983, respectively. Nevertheless, the main upside limit is considered to be circa 1.3029, as the Sterling had already failed to overcome this level for two consecutive sessions, thus forming a double top.

 

[KristinaDC]

USD/JPY breaks intermediate down-trend

USD/JPY was driven by strong upside momentum that resulted in the rate breaking the down-trend on Monday. The rate halted near the 113.40 mark and retraced back to the given line. Near-term technical indicators are bearish, suggesting that the US Dollar may trade lower. A possible stopping point may be the 100-hour SMA at 112.45. In case of a U-turn at this level, this move may confirm the formation of a minor ascending channel. The next support of importance is the 200-hour SMA circa 112.00. The monthly R1 at 113.94 should be the upside limit for today. On the contrary, the given move above the down-trend may likewise be a false breakout, thus requiring to re-adjust the given line. In this scenario, the rate is expected to test the aforementioned 200-hour SMA.

 

[KristinaDC]

XAU/USD reaches 1,220 level

As it was expected, the bullion’s price continued to plummet during Monday’s trading ssession. However, the situation changed on Tuesday morning. The commodity price found support at the first monthly support level, which is located at the 1,220.50 mark. For this reason, the metal seems to have a rather larger range for the consolidation period, which seems to be beginning. Meanwhile, the 55- and 100-hour SMAs are moving in from the upside at 1,235.38 and 1,241.65, respectively. The SMAs are too distant to be considered a notable resistance on Tuesday. However, additional clues in regards to closer resistance levels could be observed on the daily chart.

 

[KristinaDC]

EUR/USD reveals short term pattern

After a more thorough analysis, a short term descending channel was discovered on the hourly chart for the EUR/USD currency pair. In accordance with the pattern, the rate should pass the support of the weekly and monthly PP at 1.1348 and 1.1331. However, the currency exchange rate is set to have additional support from the 200-hour SMA, which on Wednesday morning was located at the 1.1320 mark. Meanwhile, as it was expected on Tuesday, the 55-hour SMA has begun to provide resistance to the currency pair near the 1.1370 mark. It is highly likely that the pair finds support at the pivot point at 1.1348 while making attempts to break the resistance of the 55-hour SMA. As a result, a small scale descending triangle might form, the breakout of which should reveal the short-term direction of the pair.

 

[KristinaDC]

GBP/USD shows lack of momentum

On Tuesday, the Sterling was restrained by a combination of the 55– and 100-hour SMAs that limited its gains until the 1.2950 mark. Thus, GBP/USD was characterised by a consolidation period, failing to form a distinctive move either direction. However, the pair did trade in a slight movement downwards that may result in a formation of a channel down if sustained. Technical indicators are generally neutral for the upcoming hours, but slightly bullish on the daily time-frame. However, it is more likely that the rate trades lower and tests the monthly PP at 1.2883 early on Thursday. This scenario depends on the rate’s inability to cross the 55-hour SMA. On the contrary, the Sterling may also continue to move sideways, thus surpassing the 55-hour SMA at some point.

 

[KristinaDC]

USD/JPY set for appreciation

USD/JPY was trading in the 112.85/113.30 area on Tuesday’s trading session. The Greenback was appreciating slightly against the Yen prior to being pushed lower late in the evening. The pair subsequently regained its upward momentum, bouncing off the lower Bollinger band and crossing the 55-hour SMA at 113.20. Today’s bullish indicators suggest that a rise in price is likely to occur, especially in the upcoming 24 hours. The scope of the upward momentum is yet to be seen, as no resistance up to the monthly R1 at 113.94 exist. In case of strong upside risks, this level may be reached. The nearest support is formed by the 55– and 100-hour SMAs at 113.07 and 112.70, respectively. The latter may likewise be regarded as a possible bottom limit.

 

[KristinaDC]

XAU/USD faces resistance

The yellow metal finally encountered the resistance of the 55-hour SMA just below the 1,230 mark. This resistance level managed to force the bullion into a short term retreat. However, the retreat was unlikely to last. After a review of the metal’s chart, it was discovered that the bullion is in a medium term descending channel pattern. The rebound, which occurred on Monday, was not only caused by the monthly S1 at 1,220.50, but also by the lower trend-line of the channel down pattern. Thus, it can be assumed that the bullion’s price will head for the upper trend line of the channel. In accordance with this hypothesis, not only the 55-hour SMA should be broken. The 100-hour SMA near the 1,235 mark would also be passed.

 

[KristinaDC]

EUR/USD remains below 1.1350 mark

The common European currency is trading against the US Dollar as expected. The pair surged on Wednesday and hit the resistance put up by the 55-hour SMA just above the 1.1350 mark. As a result of that, a retreat began, which has been stalled by the support of the monthly PP at the 1.1331 level. However, the pair is still set to decline due to various reasons. First of all the 55-hour SMA continues to move lower, as it is strengthening the resistance of the weekly PP. Secondly, the currency exchange rate has passed the support of the 200-hour SMA, which on Thursday morning was providing resistance. Moreover, the 200-hour SMA near the 1.1340 level managed to hold off any attempted rebounds by the Euro against the Greenback. Due to that a fall down to the 1.1250 mark can be expected.

 

[KristinaDC]

GBP/USD finds support at weekly PP

After bouncing off the lower channel boundary, the Pound appreciated gradually against the US Dollar on Wednesday. Bulls pushed the rate through the upper channel boundary, the weekly PP and the 55 and 20-hour SMAs, adding to the overall bullish sentiment. Other technical indicators have likewise turned bullish, thus favouring further upward potential. Upside risks should prevail in this session; however, the scope of the given outcome is yet unclear. By and large, the Pound is likely to be supported by the 55-hour SMA. An immediate support to the upside is the 100-hour SMA near the 1.2960 mark. In case this level is surpassed, the upside target for today may be the June high at 1.3030, as no other resistance is located in between these levels.

 

[KristinaDC]

USD/JPY unchanged from Wednesday

The US Dollar appreciated strongly against the Yen on Wednesday morning, reaching intraday high circa 113.60. Nevertheless, it had lost most of its gains by late evening and, thus, started this session at a relatively similar level as yesterday. Subsequently, the rate was supported by the 100-hour SMA near the 112.94 mark prior to testing a resistance cluster formed by the 20– and 55-hour SMAs. It is possible that the rate approaches the monthly R1 at 113.94 in the upcoming hours. However, the rate’s general movement sideways during the past three sessions suggests that some changes may occur in the nearest time. In general, the rate is likely to remain within the boundaries of the current channel if today’s fundamentals from the US do not change this technical information substantially.