Daily Technical Analysis for Majors by Dukascopy

KristinaDC

Master Trader
Apr 11, 2014
1,678
0
72
Gold reaches significant support
XAUUSD ASK 1H since 1210 2017-06-01 to 0030 2017-06-10.png
During the early hours of Friday’s trading session the yellow metal was located near the lower trend line of the medium term ascending channel pattern near the 1,274 level. The metal was facing the resistance of the 200-hour SMA, which was pushing the commodity price into the support level. Due to that reason it is yet to be seen whether the pattern holds its ground. However, it is more likely that it will hold, as no significant fundamental changed have occurred in the world. Moreover, the recent political turmoil in the US has increased. Although, if the trend line is broken a fall down to the monthly PP at the 1,260.13 level will be a high probability. Meanwhile, in the case of breaking free from the 200-hour SMA the bullion might jump to the 1,285 mark.

xau.PNG
 

KristinaDC

Master Trader
Apr 11, 2014
1,678
0
72
EUR/USD near 1.12 mark on Monday

EURUSD ASK 1H since 1450 2017-06-02 to 2220 2017-06-12.png

The common European currency rebounded in the second half of Friday's trading against the US Dollar, and the pair extended the gains into Monday's trading. However, various signs are indicating that a reversal of the direction of the currency pair might soon occur. First of all the hourly chart reveals that the Euro has encountered the resistance of the 55-hour SMA at 1.1212 and the newly calculated weekly PP at 1.1216. In addition, a descending short term channel has been identified. In accordance with the pattern even if the rate passes the mentioned resistance levels, it will still face the combined resistance of the channel's upper trend line and the 100 and 200-hour SMAs. All of these resistance levels are slowly moving lower.

a.PNG
 

KristinaDC

Master Trader
Apr 11, 2014
1,678
0
72
GBP/USD takes a breath

GBPUSD ASK 1H since 0824 2017-06-01 to 2212 2017-06-12.png


After Thursday's fall the Cable has entered a period of stagnation, which could just be a calm before the storm, with this week's Fed and BoE meetings due. Consequently, no significant changes are likely to occur ahead of those meetings, meaning the GBP/USD pair is likely to remain relatively unchanged and hold around the monthly S1 of 1.2758. Risks remain skewed to the downside, as that door got open by the election results in the UK, with the Pound now being exposed to the 1.25 area. Technical indicators suggest the Sterling is to weaken against the Buck today, but the 1.27 major level is expected to hold for the time being. In case this psychological support is breached, the next target will be the monthly S2 at 1.2624.

b.PNG


 

KristinaDC

Master Trader
Apr 11, 2014
1,678
0
72
USD/JPY to keep sliding down

USDJPY ASK 1H since 1912 2017-06-01 to 0900 2017-06-13.png

The Greenback's attempts to recovery against the Yen are likely to be short-lived, as the recent breach from the triangle pattern on the daily chart suggests so. Furthermore, technical indicators are giving distinctly bearish signals, implying a slide back towards 109.22, namely the monthly S1, is possible. Ahead of this area the USD/JPY currency pair has no other solid demand areas, while a resistance line is in fact present. The US Dollar could easily weaken within the next two days and retest the mentioned demand level, but is expected to receive a strong boost from that point, with the Fed rate hike announcement on Wednesday acting as a catalyst.

c.PNG
 

KristinaDC

Master Trader
Apr 11, 2014
1,678
0
72
Gold falls below medium term support

XAUUSD ASK 1H since 0624 2017-06-01 to 0148 2017-06-13.png

The medium term channel did not manage to hold its ground, as the short term descending channel managed to pass through the support of the medium scale pattern. Due to that reason it can be expected that the decline of the yellow metal will continue in accordance with the short term channel on Monday. That would occur in the case if there are no fundamental events, which cause a run to safety or a depreciation of the US Dollar. In the case of a decline the next target for the bullion is the weekly S1, which is located at the 1,255.79 level. However, on the daily chart there are some additional support levels, which should be taken into account. On the other hand, if the metal rebounds, it might reach for the closest resistance level at the 1,276.85 level.

d.PNG
 

KristinaDC

Master Trader
Apr 11, 2014
1,678
0
72
EUR/USD continues in set pattern

EURUSD ASK 1H since 1148 2017-06-02 to 0136 2017-06-14.png


The common European currency continued to trade against the US Dollar in the descending channel pattern, which formed as a result of the pair bouncing off the resistance of the long term pattern's upper trend line at the start of May. During the middle of Monday's trading session the currency exchange rate encountered the resistance of the upper trend line of the descending channel and the 100-hour SMA. As a result a decline began, which on Tuesday morning had reached the support of the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement level at the 1.1188 level. Due to the fact that the retracement level has been already pierced twice, it can be assumed that the support of the Fibo will be passed by the end of the day.

a.PNG
 

KristinaDC

Master Trader
Apr 11, 2014
1,678
0
72
GBP/USD exposed to more weakness

GBPUSD ASK 1H since 1224 2017-06-02 to 0212 2017-06-14.png

The GBP/USD currency pair experienced more weakness on Monday, causing the exchange rate to drop below the 1.27 handle. As a result, the monthly S2 at 1.2624 has become the main support now, which should limit any bearish reactions today. Another leg down is the most likely outcome, as technical indicators are giving distinctly bearish signals now. A breach of the monthly S2 is to open the door for the 1.25 mark to be reached by week's end, which would be a two-month low for the Cable. Despite the recent bearish developments, the Pound is still expected to eventually reach the 1.32 zone, where the three-year down-trend is located. Once this situation occurs, that is to be the key point on the Cable's future.

b.PNG
 

KristinaDC

Master Trader
Apr 11, 2014
1,678
0
72
USD/JPY in tight range between 109.22 and 110.50

USDJPY ASK 1H since 1640 2017-06-05 to 0010 2017-06-14.png

As was anticipated, the US Dollar edged lower against the Japanese Yen yesterday, but managed to remain relatively high above the key support—the monthly S1 at 109.22. Despite the USD/JPY pair showing signs of strength early today, technical studies keep giving strong bearish signals, suggesting the key support could be reached today. In case the Greenback strengthens versus the Yen too much, the six-week down-trend is likely to reverse polarity and reimburse USD-selling. Furthermore, yesterday's breach from the broadening rising wedge pattern is also likely to lead to the pair sliding down towards the pattern's origin point—the same 109.22 mark. The upcoming FOMC meeting on Wednesday still remains the key market mover this week.

c.PNG
 

KristinaDC

Master Trader
Apr 11, 2014
1,678
0
72
Gold breaks another pattern

XAUUSD ASK 1H since 0600 2017-06-02 to 0124 2017-06-14.png

The yellow metal no longer trades in the borders of any short or medium term pattern, as the commodity price has broken out of the short term descending channel in the previous 24 hours. The metal's future price movements are likely to be influenced by the fundamental data release at 12:30 GMT on Tuesday, which will affect the strength of the US Dollar. However, from a technical perspective it can still be expected that the price will decline, as the 55-hour SMA was moving in on the metal's price from the upside near the 1,270 mark. Due to that factor it can be expected that the commodity price will face pressure from the upside, which might eventually force it lower.

d.PNG
 

KristinaDC

Master Trader
Apr 11, 2014
1,678
0
72
EUR/USD breaks out of channel

EURUSD ASK 1H since 1042 2017-06-07 to 2034 2017-06-14.png

The common European currency gained enough strength from the support of the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement level to break the descending pattern, in which it traded against the US Dollar. However, the surge was stopped on Wednesday morning by the weekly PP, which is located at the 1.1216 mark. If the resistance is broken during the day's trading session, it is most likely that the currency exchange rate will ascend to the 200-hour SMA at the 1.1233 level. On the other hand the pair might begin a decline. However, it is highly unlikely as the 55 and 100-hour SMAs are providing support to the currency exchange rate near the 1.1210 level. Meanwhile, as it can be observed on the right, the daily technical indicators are forecasting a surge on a daily timeframe.

a.PNG
 

KristinaDC

Master Trader
Apr 11, 2014
1,678
0
72
GBP/USD: downside risks persist

GBPUSD ASK 1H since 2315 2017-06-01 to 1030 2017-06-15.png

In spite of bearish signs, the Sterling managed to appreciate against the US Dollar on Tuesday, successfully retaking the 1.27 level. Gains were limited by the monthly S1, but this area risks getting overcome today, with focus being on the Fed meeting. A rate hike is priced in, but a dovish outlook is still somewhat expected, which is to strengthen the Cable further and allow it to approach the 1.29 handle. However, technical indicators keep giving strong bearish signals, refusing to confirm the possibility of the positive outcome. A hawkish surprise from the Fed could be the result, in which case the GBP/USD pair is likely to retreat towards the monthly S2 at 1.2624 again and possibly even pierce it. Meanwhile, traders remain undecided, as their sentiment is relatively neutral—54% of all open positions are long.

b.PNG
 

KristinaDC

Master Trader
Apr 11, 2014
1,678
0
72
USD/JPY's rate depends on Fed's tone

USDJPY ASK 1H since 1012 2017-06-05 to 0000 2017-06-15.png

The 200-hour SMA prevented the USD/JPY currency pair from appreciating yesterday, causing the Buck to remain relatively unchanged over the day. Today all eyes are on the Fed, as the tone of its meeting is likely to be the main market driver. From a technical perspective, the Greenback is likely to weaken against the Yen again, as the pair recently broke out from the broadening rising wedge pattern, the 200-hour SMA and the six-week down-trend keep providing rather strong resistance above the 110.00 mark, and technical indicators in all timeframes continue to emit bearish signals. With all signs suggesting a downside development, a positive surprise is likely to have a strong impact on the exchange rate should it occur, with the 111.50 area expected to be the intraday ceiling.

c.PNG
 

KristinaDC

Master Trader
Apr 11, 2014
1,678
0
72
Gold finds support

XAUUSD ASK 1H since 0224 2017-06-05 to 2148 2017-06-14.png

It can not be seen on the hourly chart. However, the yellow metal has found support at the 1,260 mark. The successful rebound has evolved into a surge up to the 1,270 level on Wednesday morning. The surge might be at its end, as the 100-hour SMA is closing in on the commodity price from the upside at the 1,271.90 level. However, the 55-hour simple moving average did not manage to hold the ascent of the bullion's price. Instead it quickly began to provide support. This fact strengthens the hypothesis that by the end of the day gold price might reach the next notable level of resistance. The next notable resistance is located at the 1,276 level, where the weekly pivot point and the 200-hour simple moving average are located at.

d.PNG
 

KristinaDC

Master Trader
Apr 11, 2014
1,678
0
72
EUR/USD highly volatile on fundamentals

EURUSD ASK 1H since 0836 2017-06-06 to 2224 2017-06-15.png

The common European currency remains near previous session opening levels against the US Dollar. However, there is a huge arch observable on the hourly chart. The jump of the currency exchange rate was caused by the US CPI and Retails Sales data set release, which turned out to be a lot less than the average market forecast. That caused the EUR/USD pair to jump and almost reach the 1.13 mark. However, at 18:00 GMT the Federal Reserve made their announcements, which strengthened the US Dollar all across the markets. As a result the pair trades in limbo around the cluster of levels of significance at just above the 1.12 mark. The rate can either retreat to the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement level at the 1.1188 level or begin a surge up to the 200-hour SMA at 1.1231 by the end of the day.

a.PNG
 

KristinaDC

Master Trader
Apr 11, 2014
1,678
0
72
GBP/USD orbits monthly S1

GBPUSD ASK 1H since 0812 2017-06-05 to 2200 2017-06-14.png

Even though the GBP/USD currency pair experienced some volatility on Wednesday, trade still closed with the Cable remaining relatively unchanged. The pair was also unable to stabilise above the monthly S1, which suggests that more downside movement is possible. However, technical studies are unable to fully confirm this scenario. The 1.2624 level, namely the monthly S2, is still likely to be the bottom floor, where demand is expected to be sufficient to either limit the losses or even trigger a rebound. In case the Sterling manages to outperform the Buck, thus, climb above the monthly S1, a potential resistance area would be just above the 1.28 handle, represented by the 200-hour SMA and the upper Bollinger band.

b.PNG
 

KristinaDC

Master Trader
Apr 11, 2014
1,678
0
72
USD/JPY subject to more weakness

USDJPY ASK 1H since 1212 2017-06-05 to 0200 2017-06-15.png

As was anticipated, the retest of the six-week down-trend caused the Buck to decline against the Yen yesterday, as poor US fundamentals and political ‘issues' overshadowed the Fed's hawkish tone. As a result, the key support, namely the monthly S1 at 109.22, was briefly pierced, but the exchange rate quickly recovered back towards 109.50. The USD/JPY pair still has a number of strong resistances in close proximity, which are all likely to contribute to another leg down. Moreover, technical indicators keep suggesting the bearish momentum is to prevail today, bolstering the possibility of the negative outcome. Furthermore, with the breach of the key support, the given pair is now exposed to falling under the 109.00 mark, with the next solid support being only the 108.00 psychological level

c.PNG
 

KristinaDC

Master Trader
Apr 11, 2014
1,678
0
72
Gold reaches above 1,280 before falling

XAUUSD ASK 1H since 0348 2017-06-06 to 2312 2017-06-15.png

The yellow metal is continuing its decline, as the metal traded near the 1,260 mark on Thursday morning. However, there are bad news for the bears, as during the data releases of Wednesday the commodity price managed to surge and reach above the 1,280 mark, which most likely triggered a lot of stop losses. The bullion retreated once more to trade near the 1,260 after the Federal Reserve made their announcements at 18:00 GMT during yesterday's trading session. It can still be expected that the gold price will decline down to the 1,255.79 mark where the first weekly support was located at on Thursday. The support is also strengthened by the close by located monthly pivot point at the 1,253 mark.

d.PNG
 

KristinaDC

Master Trader
Apr 11, 2014
1,678
0
72
EUR/USD leaves 1.12 mark

EURUSD ASK 1H since 2245 2017-06-05 to 1000 2017-06-17.png

It seems that the third bounce off from the long term resistance did the trick. The common European currency has declined against the US Dollar to the weekly S1, which is located at the 1.1148 level. This fall was long expected on larger timeframe charts. It is most likely now that the currency exchange rate will continue on its path lower. In the process a new medium term pattern is expected to form, which should provide guidelines about the probable direction of the Euro against the Buck in the upcoming few months. However, for now the target zone is unclear. Meanwhile, from a technical perspective it can be observed that a depreciation of the Euro against the US Dollar is to be expected.

a.PNG
 

KristinaDC

Master Trader
Apr 11, 2014
1,678
0
72
GBP/USD continues to consolidate

GBPUSD ASK 1H since 1136 2017-06-07 to 0124 2017-06-17.png

The British currency managed to erase all intraday losses yesterday and, thus, remain relatively unchanged against the Greenback. The rebound occurred from what appears to be the support line of a newly-forming ascending channel pattern, but additional confirmations are required to confirm if the channel is reliable. So far the exchange rate keeps gravitating towards the monthly S1, with risks skewed to the downside. Consequently, if the Cable experiences another decline today, the potential support would be the earlier-mentioned channel's support line around 1.2720. On the other hand, gains should be capped circa 1.2850, but a surge that far up today is doubtful, as there are no solid market movers expected to drive the given pair today.

b.PNG
 

KristinaDC

Master Trader
Apr 11, 2014
1,678
0
72
USD/JPY attempts to stretch gains

USDJPY ASK 1H since 1624 2017-06-07 to 0612 2017-06-17.png

On Thursday, the US Dollar surprised to the upside, having successfully outperformed the Japanese Yen. As a result, the given pair was able to reach the 111.00 handle, but even then refused to stop appreciating. The current target is the monthly pivot point, located at 111.79; this area could provide strong resistance and limit the further gains. This pivot point is also the only solid obstacle on the USD/JPY pair's path, which is preventing the Buck from reaching its main target—the seven-month down-trend. On the other hand, the Greenback could struggle to post further gains, as some indicators suggest the rally ran out of steam, such as the RSI, which reached its 70 reading today.

c.PNG