XAU/USD reveals short term trend
On Thursday morning the yellow metal still traded near the 1,225 mark. However, the main difference, compared to the Wednesday’s trading session was that the commodity price was being supported by the 55-hour SMA, which was located just below the 1,225 level. Meanwhile, the 100-hour SMA was moving in on the commodity price from the just above the 1,231 level. Although, a new discovery was made on Thursday morning. The possible borders of a short term ascending channel have been drawn. If the yellow metal continues to trade in the drawn borders, the commodity price will not reach above the 1,230 mark. The hypothesis might become stronger, as the 100 and 200-hour SMAs move downwards and the 55-hour moving average would decline down to the 1,220 level.
EUR/USD pushed higher by fundamentals
On Friday morning the common European currency traded above the 1.14 mark against the US Dollar. The reason for that was the fact that instead of bouncing off the upper trend line of the short term pattern the currency exchange rate broke through the trend line. From a technical perspective it was done by the support of the 55 and 200-hour SMAs together with the weekly PP near the 1.1350 mark. However, the pair continued to surge until midnight. Due to that reason the fundamentals need to be examined. At 11:30 GMT on Thursday the ECB meeting accounts were published. It is most likely that in the minds of the market participants the rhetoric of the ECB officials has caused the strengthening of the Euro. Due to that reason once can expect the pair to reach for the 1.15 mark soon.
GBP/USD moves in up-trend
The Pound appreciated against the US Dollar on Thursday, reaching the 1.2974 mark late in the evening. The pair found support at the weekly PP and the 55-hour SMA, while minor resistance was met at the 100-hour SMA. Friday’s morning session started with weak volatility prior to the pair gaining momentum to the downside. In the short term, the pair may be pushed south, testing a resistance cluster formed by the 100– and 55-hour SMAs. However, technical indicators favour further appreciation that may consequently confirm an up-trend. Thus, a possible trading range in this session may be 1.2940/1.3030, regarding as very likely an attempt to approach the upper limit. Meanwhile, a breakout of the aforementioned support cluster could lead to a test of the 1.2920 area.
USD/JPY approaches monthly R1
On Thursday, USD/JPY failed to form a distinctive trend either direction, thus remaining in the 112.90/113.44 range the whole trading session and being supported by the 100-hour SMA. Nevertheless, the stillness of the market was disrupted by a sudden 49-pip surge early on Friday. The given move shifted tremendously indicator readings that became strongly bullish. It is expected that the given upward momentum might maintain for several hours; however, the monthly R1 at 113.90 could resist any attempts to move the rate north. The base scenario favours the US Dollar appreciating against the Yen in short term, but reversing somewhere near the two-month high at 114.34.
XAU/USD: short term pattern is adjusted
Due to a rebound that occurred on Friday morning, the borders of the previously discovered ascending channel pattern on the hourly chart of the yellow metal can be adjusted. It can be observed that the metal’s price might after all reach above the 1,230 mark. However, on its way the bullion is set to face the resistance put up by the 55 and 100-hour SMAs, which are located just below and above the 1,225 mark. By examining the course of the SMAs, it can be seen that both of them will meet with the commodity price at the 1,225 mark. If their combined resistance is passed, then the 1,230 level becomes a target. Meanwhile, if the SMAs force the rate lower, a far down to the 1,220 level would be most likely, as until next week the lower trend line of the ascending channel is not reaching above that level.
EUR/USD trades near 1.14 mark
The common European currency bounced off a long term descending channel’s resistance line against the US Dollar. As a result of the following decline the pair has recently passed the support of a medium term ascending channel. However, the decline might not continue. The reason for that is the fact that the area from 1.1395 to 1.1374 is full of support levels. All of the hourly SMAs, which are used by Dukascopy Bank analysts are located in that region. In addition, the weekly PP is stationed at 1.1388 mark together with the 23.60% Fibonacci retracement level. Due to that reason it can be expected that the currency pair will find support and not continue the decline right away. However, in accordance with the larger scale pattern the Euro should depreciate against the US Dollar.
GBP/USD recovers losses on Monday
Despite technical indicators being bullish on Friday morning, GBP/USD plunged 98 pips within couple of hours mid-session. The most significant downfall resulted from weak UK data released at 0830GMT. This move pushed technical indicators in the strongly bullish and oversold territory. The rate, however, was halted at the 55-day SMA near the 1.2875 mark prior to making a U-turn. The Pound has started to recover some losses and is expected to continue doing so in this trading session, as the pair has formed a minor falling wedge that should lead it to the upper boundary of this pattern circa 1.2930. The Sterling may likewise trade sideways, given the lack of strong market movers scheduled for today. By and large, a possible trading range is likely to be 1.2883/1.2930.
USD/JPY trades near two-month high
Following the hourly surge on Friday morning, the US Dollar lost its strong upside momentum against the Yen and continued to trade with moderate gains. Contrary to expectations, the monthly R1 did not provide enough resistance to hinder or halt the pair. Thus, the rate has approached a two-month high at 114.34, suggesting that this level could finally reverse the Greenback to the downside. Technical oscillators may likewise reach the overbought area in this session, adding some ground to the aforementioned scenario. Nevertheless, there is still some upside potential until the upper channel boundary circa 114.60. In case bears are to prevail, the 55– or 100-hour SMAs located at 113.60 and 113.42 on Monday morning may be considered the bottom limit today.
XAU/USD trades near trend line
The yellow metal has declined once more to the lower trend line of the long term descending channel pattern. The commodity price tested the strength of the support line already on Friday. On Monday morning the bullion continued to test the support. If it gets passed, and the pattern is broken, the bullion would retreat down to the 1,198.51 level, where the second monthly support is located at. Meanwhile, if the support line proves its strength, the commodity price might jump back up to the 1,220 mark, where the monthly S1 together with the 55 and 100-hour simple moving averages are located. In either of the cases Monday’s trading session is most likely set to reveal the direction of the metal for the rest of the week.
EUR/USD reveals triangle pattern
As it was expected, the EUR/USD currency pair has continued to trade near the 1.14 mark. However, recent fluctuations have revealed additional information, which is enforcing the previous forecasts. In general, the hypothesis of a decline of the Euro against the US Dollar is being strengthened by the fact that a new pattern was spotted. The new pattern is a short term descending triangle. The triangle shows that the currency exchange rate is building up downwards pressure, as the support levels from 1.1390 to 1.1380 are holding ground. Most likely the currency pair will fall by the end of the day and reach for the combined support of the weekly S1 and the monthly pivot point at the 1.1331 level.
GBP/USD tests monthly PP
Bears prevailed on Monday’s session, pushing the Sterling below the monthly PP at 1.2883. Subsequently, the pair fluctuated around the 20-hour SMA, but nevertheless failed to surpass the aforementioned PP. Apart from some bigger leaps in both directions, the pair demonstrated low volatility that resulted from a lack of market shakers. The same situation is likely to occur in this session, forming a consolidation phase. In this case, it should be apparent that the channel down will not hold any longer and some alteration may be due. Given the bearish sentiment, the pair may trade lower in the upcoming hours; however, upside risks should guide the Pound north in the evening. Gains may be capped at 1.2926, while the bottom limit should be circa 1.2828.
USD/JPY edges higher on Tuesday
The US Dollar was trading in a small range against the Yen on Monday. The pair entered a consolidation period, thus demonstrating the almost equal force of bulls and bears. The American currency edged higher in the morning session and surpassed the two-month high at 114.34. Technical indicators suggest that the upside momentum has not yet allayed, signalling to further increase in price. The nearest level of resistance is the upper channel boundary circa 114.80. However, the pair is more likely to trade sideways due to lack of major fundamental events, thus being located in the 114.70/80 area on Wednesday morning. In case of stronger downside risks, the 55-hour SMA should support the Greenback from falling lower.
XAU/USD meets resistance
The yellow metal continues to trade in accordance with the descending channel pattern, as the commodity price bounced off the support of the channel on Monday. That means that a short term ascending pattern is highly set to reveal itself. The reason or that is the fact that in accordance with the theory the bullion’s price should surge up to the resistance of the channel down. However, the surge has already been hindered by the 55-hour SMA, which on Tuesday morning was located just below the 1,215 mark. Although, it could be observed already during the early hours of the trading session that the metal will make another attempt at breaking through the SMA. If the metal succeeds at that, it will face additional resistance from the 100-hour SMA, which was fluctuating below 1,220 level.
EUR/USD breaks out of triangle
The breakout out of the descending triangle pattern did not occur to the downside. Instead the EUR/USD currency exchange rate has jumped. The currency pair signalled that it will move to the upside, as it slowly moved out of the triangle and fluctuated below the 55-hour SMA. Afterwards, the Euro appreciated sharply against the US Dollar until the pair reached the 1.1490 mark. Due to the fact that during the just described move the pair broke the first weekly resistance, which is located at the 1.1458 mark, the rate is set for additional gains. The next resistance, which is going to be targeted, will be the second weekly resistance level at the 1.1513 level. However, the 1.15 mark might prove itself as a psychological level.
GBP/USD trades in oversold area
The low volatility apparent on Tuesday morning shifted tremendously when the GBP/USD currency pair surged and tested the weekly PP at 1.2926. Subsequently, it fell down to the bottom channel boundary circa 1.2840. The sudden plunge that started at 0600GMT today pushed the rate in the strongly oversold territory and even past the weekly S1 at 1.2828. This level is unlikely to hold; thus, the Sterling should be forced to make a U-turn. Upside risks may guide the pair towards a resistance area formed by the 55-hour SMA and the weekly PP near 1.2880 or even higher if bulls remain active thorough this session. By and large, significant fundamentals scheduled for today are very likely to disrupt technical predictions and push the pair either direction.
USD/JPY breaches channel up
Contrary to expectations, the US Dollar failed to overcome the 114.50 level on Tuesday. As a result, the American currency was driven by strong downside risks until Wednesday morning when the weekly PP and the 200-hour SMA circa 113.40 were reached. In case the US Dollar breaches the latter and reverses near the 113.10 mark, it will confirm the existence of a broadening wedge pattern. From technical point of view, the rate should try to form retracement from the bottom channel boundary in the 113.80/114.00 area. Thus, it is more likely that the rate tests the monthly R1 at 113.94 and remains slightly below the given level until Wednesday morning. Nevertheless, traders should be very attentive in this session due to important fundamentals that are likely to pressure the rate.
XAU/USD reaches 1,220 mark
The forecasted scenario of a surge of the yellow metal has become reality. As it was expected, an ascending short term pattern has revealed itself. In accordance with the pattern the commodity price is set to continue the surge. Meanwhile, in the near future, the bullion’s price is set to be supported by the 55 and 100-hour SMAs, respectively, at 1,213.26 and 1,217.12 marks. However, during the reveal of the pattern the metal bounced off the resistance of the monthly S1, which is located at the 1,220.50 mark. During Wednesday’s trading session the course of the metal is quite unclear, as it is set to decline down to the lower trend line of the ascending channel. Although, the course of the upcoming short lived bullion’s fall is quite hard to pinpoint due to the existence of the various moving support levels.
GBP/USD tests channel
On Wednesday morning, GBP/USD plunged and subsequently surged in response to fundamentals. It was pushed through the 55-hour SMA and the monthly PP circa 1.2880. The 100-hour SMA managed to halt the pair for some hours; however, this level was likewise conquered in the evening. The Sterling surged once again on Thursday morning, pushing through the 200-hour SMA and the weekly PP and thus breaching the channel. Technical indicators remain bullish; however, oscillators signal that the pair may soon be overbought, thus pressuring traders to sell the Pound. Thus, it is expected that the rate fails to sustain the current upward momentum and returns in the 1.2900/20 area by Friday morning.
USD/JPY pressured by bears
The US Dollar was trading slightly above a support cluster formed by the weekly PP and the 200-hour SMA at 113.40 on Wednesday morning. Nevertheless, fundamentals put strong downward pressure on the pair mid-session that resulted in the Greenback plunging as low as 113.00. The rate has not since recovered, despite various attempts to edge above the 113.30 mark. Thus, the Greenback has remained below the weekly PP since the massive fall and may fail to overcome it once again. It is therefore likely that the rate persists within the bounds of this level and the weekly S1 at 112.64 in case no solid upside risks manage to prevail in this session.
EUR/USD falls back below 1.14
The forecast of a surge of the Euro against the US Dollar has not fulfilled itself, as the currency exchange rate traded even below the 1.14 mark on Thursday morning. The main reason for the initial decline and passing of the support levels during the second half of Wednesday’s trading session was the testimony given by the chairwoman of the Federal Reserve Janet Yellen. The testimony signalled that there are more than one changes in US monetary policy upcoming, which will strengthen the US Dollar. Due to that reason the currency pair traded below the 1.14 mark. It was facing a strong support cluster, as the levels just below the 1.14 are full of various supports. These support levels are highly likely going to force the pair into a continuation of the surge.
