Daily Technical Analysis for Majors by Dukascopy

[KristinaDC]

GBP/USD set for another quiet day

"If you get a poorer retail sales number and worry about what unemployment will do, you might see some of these gains reversed and take us back down toward $1.28, maybe even toward $1.27 in the shorter-term."
– Chris Beauchamp, IG (based on MarketWatch)

Pair's Outlook
Another day ended with the GBP/USD pair remaining relatively flat, with the bullish momentum prevailing only slightly, despite an upbeat UK inflation reading. The Cable is now likely to edge further up, due to the immediate support being stronger than before. The pair is also expected to encounter resistance at 1.30, where the weekly R1, the upper Bollinger band and the consolidation trend's upper border form a tough supply zone. Overall, the British Pound is to remain unchanged again, with a possible close near 1.2950. Meanwhile, technical indicators support the possibility of a rally.

Traders' Sentiment
Traders retain a neutral outlook towards the Sterling, being that 51% of all open positions are long and the remaining 49% are short. The share of purchase orders inched up from 49 to 53%.

 

[KristinaDC]

USD/JPY slumps on safe-haven demand

"At the very least the view is that Trump's economic policies will be delayed over this [latest US political turmoil], and the dollar is being sold."
– Matsui Securities (based on The Business Times)

Pair's Outlook
As was anticipated, the USD/JPY currency pair found support near 112.90 yesterday, where the monthly R1 and the 100-day SMA rest. The Buck remains under pressure today as well, which suggests a close is likely to occur below this demand area, paving the way towards a drop to the 112.00 major level. Support around that area is expected to be sufficient to limit the intraday losses, even though technical studies are unable to confirm this scenario. Furthermore, there are no solid market movers present today and with demand for the safe-haven currency higher, no other factor should cause a sudden recovery.

Traders' Sentiment
Bears keep pushing further, with 66% of all open positions being short now. Meanwhile, the portion of orders to acquire the US Dollar lost three percentage points over the day, having fallen to a total of 49%.

 

[KristinaDC]

Euro encounters resistance

"The dollar fell a sixth day."
– Bloomberg

Pair's outlook
The EUR/USD currency pair seems to have encountered the resistance of a medium term ascending channel pattern, which broke through the previously active long term channel up. It is most likely that the pair will retreat down to the support of the weekly R2, which is located at the 1.1115 mark. However, it is yet to be seen whether that support is passed. Although, if that occurs the currency pair could retreat back to the support cluster near the 1.1050 mark. On the other hand the pair might make an attempt to break the resistance cluster near the 1.1190 level.

Traders' sentiment
SWFX traders continue to short the pair, as 61% of open positions are bearish. However, 53% of trader set up orders are to buy the Euro.

 

[KristinaDC]

GBP/USD: U-turn in sight

"If you get a poorer retail sales number and worry about what unemployment will do, you might see some of these gains reversed and take us back down toward $1.28, maybe even toward $1.27 in the shorter-term."
– Chris Beauchamp, IG (based on MarketWatch)

Pair's outlook
For the third consecutive day this week the British Pound was able to outperform the US Dollar yesterday, approaching dangerously close to the 1.30 mark. The goal remains unchanged, as the Sterling is required to pierce the consolidation trend's upper border in order to continue posting gains. As a result, risks of the pair shifting polarity persist, which would trigger another spark of bearish momentum and would eventually lead to a drop under 1.29, with the consolidation trend's lower border then in focus. Technical indicators keep giving mixed signals, unable to confirm this outlook.

Traders' sentiment
Once again market sentiment reached a perfect equilibrium, but the portion of orders to buy the Pound inched slightly higher in the last 24 hours, namely from 53 to 55%.

 

[KristinaDC]

USD/JPY attempts to undergo a correction

"At the very least the view is that Trump's economic policies will be delayed over this [latest US political turmoil], and the dollar is being sold."
– Matsui Securities (based on The Business Times)

Pair's outlook
The USD/JPY pair experienced a rather devastating blow on Wednesday, losing more than 200 pips amid continued political turmoil in the US. After such a large slump the Buck is likely to undergo a bullish correction, unless political pressure keeps weakening the Greenback. Moreover, the monthly PP and the weekly S3 around 110.45 are providing rather strong support, which could be sufficient for a recovery to prevail. The nearest resistance rests at 111.40, namely the weekly S2, most likely marking the intraday high. The base case scenario is a close somewhere between 110.50 and 111.50.

Traders' sentiment
There are 61% of traders holding short positions today (previously 66%), while the share of buy orders added 10% points, having risen to a total of 59%.

 

[KristinaDC]

EUR/USD remains above 1.11 level

"Price action suggested stop-loss sell orders were tripped."
– Alexandria Arnold and Dennis Pettit, Bloomberg

Pair's outlook
During Thursday's trading session the currency exchange rate had retreated down to the 1.1075 mark, where it found support. After the change in the direction of the pair the currency pair had broken pass the weekly R2 at 1.1115 on Friday morning. Due to that it can be expected that the rate will surge up to the resistance of the monthly R2 at 1.1187, which is strengthened by the 61.80% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1190.

Traders' sentiment
Traders have turned bearish on the pair, as 52% of open positions are short. However, 55% of pending orders are to buy the Pound.

 

[KristinaDC]

GBP/USD recovers yesterday's losses

"The reversal appears to be purely a function of a recovering US Dollar which has been under pressure all week as the US Trump administration bats allegation after allegation of wrongdoings and incompetence."
– Joaquin Monfort (based on PoundSterlingLive)

Pair's outlook
The morning session started rather calmly for GBP/USD with no strong market movers pushing the pair to either side. The Pound closed Thursday's session in the red area, thus leaving upside potential for the pair to reach the upper channel boundary today. Up to now, the rate has been appreciating gradually, suggesting that bulls may prevail to lead the currency towards the weekly R1 or even the channel boundary at 1.2970 and 1.3000, respectively. GBP/USD changing to the downside is not very likely today, taking into account bullish indicators that favour the above scenario over the Pound pushing back down to the 20-day SMA.

Traders' sentiment
Traders have turned bearish on the pair, as 52% of open positions are short. However, 55% of pending orders are to buy the Pound.

 

[KristinaDC]

USD/JPY steady in this trading session

"While the dailies still point lower, the 4 hour charts are recovering after having become oversold and further short term gains would not surprise. On the downside, minor support will be seen at 111.00 and 110.70 ahead of the session low of 110.23."
– Jim Langlands, FX Charts (based on FX Street)

Pair's outlook
Yesterday, the US Dollar managed to regain some losses after the massive plummet on Wednesday. However, it seems that traders are once again looking in the direction of the save-haven currency. The nearest support formed by the weekly S2 at 111.41 may hinder the rate from trading lower; however, it may not be strong enough to halt it, thus leading the pair to the 111.30 territory. In case the Greenback manages to push north, a penetration of the 100-day at 111.77 might indicate that the currency has finally recovered from the latest political turmoil. This scenario is confirmed by bullish short-term technical indicators.

Traders' sentiment
Market sentiment remains bearish, as 56% of open positions are short. Meanwhile, 51% of pending orders are to buy the US Dollar.

 

[KristinaDC]

Gold finds support below 1,250

"The gold rally was overdone and there was a correction on Thursday."
– Brian Lan, GoldSilver Central (based on Reuters)

Pair's outlook
On Friday morning, the yellow metal's price was regaining some of the losses, which were suffered during Thursday's trading session. During that day the bullion retreated down to the levels below the 1,250 mark, where the 20, 55 and 200-day SMAs are located at. The combined support of these levels of significance managed to stop the fall of the commodiy price. Afterwards a rebound began, which has passed the resistance of the 50.00% Fibonacci retracement level at 1,249.16 level. Due to these factors combined it can be assumed that the bullion will attempt to reach the weekly R3 at 1,261.72 once more.

Traders' sentiment
Traders are neutral in regard to the metal. However, 70% of pending commands are to buy the bullion.

 

[KristinaDC]

EUR/USD reaches above 1.12 mark

"With the pair rallying to close higher the past week, more strength is expected in the new week."
– FXTechstrategy (based on investing.com)

Pair's outlook
On Monday morning, the common European currency had slightly retreated against the US Dollar, as the currency exchange rate retreated down to the combined support of the 61.80% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1190 and the monthly R2 at 1.1187. It is most likely that the currency pair remains near the support cluster, as it has surged majorly during the previous week, and a period of consolidation is to be expected. However, afterwards the pair is most likely to continue the surge.

Traders' sentiment
SWFX traders remain bearish in regard to the Euro, as 60% of open positions are short. Meanwhile, 53% of trader set up orders are to buy.

 

[KristinaDC]

GBP/USD trades below weekly PP

"Bulls would be eyeing for a follow through momentum beyond 1.3040-50 immediate hurdle, above which the pair is likely to aim towards reclaiming the 1.3100 handle and head towards testing 1.3125-30 resistance area, marking 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of post-Brexit downslide."
– Haresh Menghani (based on FX Street)

Pair's outlook
On Friday, GBP/USD breached the upper Bollinger band and closed as high as the 1.3042 mark. The Pound opened lower today and has since demonstrated strong downside momentum, dashing through the weekly PP at 1.2985. The next support that the pair is gradually approaching to is formed by the 20-day SMA and the weekly S1 circa 1.2925. This level, however, might be considered unreachable in this trading session, setting 1.294 as the ultimate low. In case the Pound manages to reverse to the upside, the upper Bollinger band should limit the currency from trading higher. May's speech at 18:00 GMT, however, may introduce some corrections in the pair's movement.

Traders' sentiment
Market sentiment remains bearish, as 51% of open positions are short. Meanwhile, 60% of pending orders are to buy the Pound.

 

[KristinaDC]

USD/JPY tests 55-day SMA at 111.72

"USD/JPY—slightly bearish. We expect the pair may move towards 110.80."
– Fullerton Markets (based on Investing.com)

Pair's outlook
This trading week has started with the US Dollar appreciating slightly against the Yen. The closest upper limit is set by the 55-day SMA at 111.72. The given resistance was strong enough not to pass the pair through in the previous two sessions; thus, a breakout might be regarded as a bullish sign, leading the Greenback towards the 20-day SMA at 112.37. Today, it might be expected that the pair remains confined within the bounds of the 55-day SMA and the monthly PP. However, it is yet to be seen if the close occurs in the red or green area.

Traders' sentiment
Traders have not changed their bearish outlook in this trading session, as 57% of open positions are short. However, 59% of set up orders are to buy the US Dollar.

 

[KristinaDC]

Gold trades above 1,250 level

"Fundamentally, we remain bearish on the yellow metal, underpinned by two more rate hikes by the U.S. central bank in 2017."
– Barnabas Gan, OCBC (based on Reuters)

Pair's outlook
The yellow metal remains above the 1,250 level, and it is still positioned for additional gains in the near future. The reason for that is the fact that the bullion is above a strong support cluster, which is located from the 1,243 to the 1,249 levels. Meanwhile, the commodity price faces no resistance up to the 1,269 level, where the monthly PP and a medium term trend line are located at. Most likely the bullion will reach for the resistance and bounce off of it during the next upcoming trading sessions.

Traders' sentiment
SWFX market sentiment remains almost neutral, as 51% of open positions are short. However, 65% of trader set up orders are to buy.

 

[KristinaDC]

EUR/USD near 1.1250 mark on Tuesday

"German Chancellor Angela Merkel described the shared currency as "too weak."
– Alexandria Arnold and Dennis Pettit, Bloomberg

Pair's Outlook
After the fundamental move of the Euro against the US Dollar, which broke the medium term ascending channel pattern, the currency exchange rate continued to trade near the 1.1250 mark on Tuesday morning. The pair is most likely going to reach the 1.13 mark soon, as it faces no resistance up to that level. Meanwhile, from a fundamental perspective markets are grasping the comments of the German Chancellor in regards to the ECB and the weakening of the Euro. However, the bottom line is that Merkel does not like how the ECB has weakened the common currency.

Traders' Sentiment
SWFX traders remain with an unchanged opinion, as 60% of open positions remain short. Meanwhile, 58% of trader set up orders are to buy the Euro.

 

[KristinaDC]

GBP/USD attempts to prolong consolidation

"Bulls would be eyeing for a follow through momentum beyond 1.3040-50 immediate hurdle, above which the pair is likely to aim towards reclaiming the 1.3100 handle and head towards testing 1.3125-30 resistance area, marking 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of post-Brexit downslide."
– Haresh Menghani (based on FX Street)

Pair's Outlook
Monday ended with the Sterling remaining completely unchanged against the US Dollar, with the pair attempting to return into its consolidation trend's borders. In order for this to be confirmed the British Pound is required to close in the red zone today, below the weekly pivot point as well. The second closest support lies only around 1.2930, formed by the 20-day SMA and the weekly S1. However, technical indicators suggest the bullish momentum is likely to prevail; in case it does, the Cable is likely to reach the 1.31 mark within the next two weeks.

Traders' Sentiment
Traders are still neutral towards the Pound, holding 51% of short and 49% of long positions. At the same time, the share of purchase orders inched down from 60 to 56%.

 

[KristinaDC]

USD/JPY stuck between 110.50 and 111.75

"USD/JPY—slightly bearish. We expect the pair may move towards 110.80."
– Fullerton Markets (based on Investing.com)

Pair's Outlook
The USD/JPY pair has been trading rather calmly since last week's sharp decline, managing to retain its positions above the 111.00 major level. The given pair now appears to be contained within a specific trading range, with the 55-day SMA and the weekly PP representing the upper border, and the monthly PP with the lower Bollinger band—the lower one. Additionally, strong demand rests around the 110.00 mark, which should limit any deeper losses should the immediate support fail. Meanwhile, technical indicators imply the Greenback is to outperform the Yen again, but due to lack of impetus the nearest resistance is likely to remain intact today.

Traders' Sentiment
There are 60% of traders holding short positions, while 55% of all pending orders are to acquire the US Dollar.

 

[KristinaDC]

Gold near 1,260 level

"We suspect that gold will respond more forcefully going into Tuesday's session as geopolitical tensions start to rise again."
– Edward Meir, INTL FCStone (based on Reuters)

Pair's Outlook
During the early hours of Tuesday's trading session the yellow metal's price fluctuated near the 1,260 mark without a clear direction. However, on a larger scale it can be understood that the bullion is still in the surge, which began after reaching the support cluster near the 1,250 level. Due to that fact it can be assumed that the commodity price eventually will reach the nearest technical resistance, which is near the 1,270 mark, as at that level there is a resistance cluster made up of three various levels of significance.

Traders' Sentiment
Traders sentiment remains firm, as 51% of open positions are short, and 67% of trader set up orders are long.

 

[KristinaDC]

EUR/USD retreats below significant resistance

"The euro's 7 percent gain this year means it's the best-performing currency against the dollar among the Group of 10 industrialized nations. History suggests its advance may carry on."
– Mark Gilbert, Bloomberg

Pair's Outlook
After a retreat back below the 1.12 mark during the second half of Tuesday's trading session the EUR/USD currency exchange rate has retreated below a significant resistance. On Wednesday early morning the pair was flat below the combined resistance of the monthly R2 at 1.1187 and the 61.80% Fibonacci retracement level at the 1.1190 mark. As the pair remains flat, it can be clear that clues are being expected to reveal the future short term direction. Two possibilities exist. In the case of a breaking of the resistance, the 1.13 mark will be in reach. On the other hand a decline to the weekly PP at 1.1114 might occur.

Traders' Sentiment
SWFX traders are clearly bearish in regard to the pair, as 59% of open positions are short, and 53% of trader set up orders are to sell.

 

[KristinaDC]

GBP/USD: another drop expected

"There is still scope for further upside in the near term. The long-term downtrend currently stands at approximately 1.35 and it is still possible that we could see that tested before the dollar begins to reassert itself."
– Charles Stanley (based on PoundSterlingLive)

Pair's Outlook
The GBP/USD currency pair weakened on Tuesday, resulting in the consolidation trend's preservation. Consequently, the British Pound should edge lower for another day, with the 1.29 major level likely to be the bottom, despite the 20-day SMA and the weekly S1 forming support around 1.2930. On a slightly larger scale the given pair should be unable to drop under 1.2830, where the consolidation trend's lower border, the lower Bollinger band, the weekly S2 and the wedge's support line all form a strong demand cluster. This point is also likely to be able to shift polarity and spark sufficient GBP-buying for a solid surge above 1.30, eventually.

Traders' Sentiment
Traders retain a neutral outlook towards the Sterling, with 52% of all open positions being short. Still 56% of all orders are to buy the Pound.

 

[KristinaDC]

USD/JPY keeps edging higher






"The rise in Treasury yields is supporting the dollar. It appears that speculative buying of Treasuries has run its course, with Trump concerns and geopolitical risks no longer fresh news."
– Daiwa Securities (based on Reuters)

Pair's Outlook
The USD/JPY pair edged higher yesterday, but managed to overperform, as it breached the immediate resistance area. As a result, the US Dollar is now likely to keep appreciating against the Yen, even though technical indicators are unable to confirm that. The nearest area to limit the gains now rests around 112.60, represented by the monthly R1, the 20 and the 100-day SMAs, but the Buck could experience trouble reaching that far up. Technical indicators in the daily timeframe, however, are unable to confirm the possibility of the positive outcome, but in the longer timeframes they do suggest the Greenback is to keep climbing higher.

Traders' Sentiment
There are 55% of traders holding short positions (previously 60%), while the share of buy orders remains unchanged at 55%.