"While traders see little chance of a Fed interest rate hike this week, an increase is seen as much more likely in June."
– Alexandria Arnold and Dennis Pettit, Bloomberg
Pair's Outlook
On Wednesday morning the common European currency had slightly retreated against the US Dollar, as the currency exchange rate continued to trade above the 1.09 mark. The reason for the almost flat trading was the fact that the markets are expecting fundamental data in the form of the EU GDP and the US Federal Funds Rate later in the day. Meanwhile, from a technical perspective the currency pair remains below a strong resistance cluster, which surrounds the upper trend line of a long term ascending channel.
Traders' Sentiment
SWFX traders continue to short the Euro, as 61% of open positions are bearish. Meanwhile, 52% of trader set up orders are to sell.
"We expect GBPUSD to drop to 1.23 in 3M on a combination of 1) general USD strength and 2) a rocky start to the UK/EU negotiations for an exit agreement."
– BMO Capital Markets (based on PoundSterlingLive)
Pair's Outlook
The British Pound surprised with its performance on Tuesday, being that it outperformed the US Dollar and reclaimed the 1.29 level. Technical indicators today keep giving positive signals, suggesting the Sterling is to edge higher against the Buck for another day. Such an outcome is possible, but in this case gains are likely to be capped around 1.3020, with the broadening rising wedge's upper border and the weekly R1 representing resistance there. On the other hand, upbeat US fundamentals could boost the Greenback, which would cause the Cable to fall even under the second support, namely the weekly S1.
Traders' Sentiment
There are 52% of traders holding short positions today (previously 51%), whereas 67% of all pending orders are to acquire the Pound.
"Concerns about geopolitical risks such as North Korea had weighed on the dollar against the yen recently... But the focus is shifting to whether the (strength) of US economic fundamentals is for real. There is more data coming up including the jobs data, so those need to be watched closely."
– Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation (based on The Business Times)
Pair's Outlook
Despite having appreciated against the Japanese Yen yesterday, the US Dollar still retreated from its intraday high, as it lacked momentum to pierce the second resistance level. Nevertheless, the USD/JPY pair has the opportunity to pierce this supply level today, with the 112.95 level expected to be the intraday high, as it marks the descending channel's upper border. The given trend-line is also reinforced by the upper Bollinger band and the monthly R1, while technical indicators are now giving bullish signals in the daily timeframe. The base case scenario, however, is a close around 112.60.
Traders' Sentiment
Market sentiment is relatively neutral, as 53% of all open positions are short and the remaining 47% are long. At the same time, the number of orders to buy the Buck plunged from 69 to 49%.
"The Fed meeting is the next likely catalyst for gold."
– Jordan Eliseo, ABC Bullion (based on Reuters)
Pair's Outlook
The yellow metal's price is fluctuating, as forecasted. The metal hit the support cluster below it near the 1,252 level and made a slight rebound. On Wednesday morning the metal traded above the support cluster, which is made up of the 55 and 200-day SMAs, the weekly S2, the lower trend line of a medium scale descending channel and the 50.00% Fibonacci retracement level. All of these levels of significance make the 1,250 mark a strong foundation for the bullion. Due to that it is even unlikely that the will pass this support soon.
Traders' Sentiment
SWFX market sentiment remains unchanged, as 52% of open positions are short, and 67% of trader set up orders are to buy.
EUR/USD retreats below 1.09 mark "Investors in the currency options market are less worried about the outcome of the French election run-off than they were before the first round."
– Vassilis Karamanis, Bloomberg
Pair's Outlook
Due to the hawkish announcement by the Fed on Wednesday, the common European currency was trading below the 1.09 mark against the US Dollar on Thursday morning. The pair seemed to have rebounded against the support, which is provided by the weekly PP at 1.0890 level. If the situation does not change and a surge persists, the currency exchange rate will reach the weekly R1, which is located at the 1.0958 level. On the other hand, the pair might decline to the support cluster below it that begins at the 1.0835 level.
Traders' Sentiment
Traders remain bearish, as 59% of open positions are short on Thursday. Meanwhile, 52% of trader set up orders are to sell the Euro.
Gold reaches long term trend line "The Fed concluded its two-day meeting with a bullish statement that downplayed weak first-quarter economic growth."
– Marcy Nicholson and Zandi Shabalala, Reuters
Pair's Outlook
As the FOMC published their statement, the yellow metal's price declined and passed two significant support clusters. The fall stopped exactly at the lower trend line of the long term ascending channel pattern. Initially this move was expected to occur later. On Thursday morning the commodity price was squeezed in between the trend line and a resistance cluster just above the 1,240 level. However, it is most likely that the resistance cluster will be broken and the metal will begin to approach the 1,250 mark.
Traders' Sentiment
SWFX market sentiment is almost neutral, as 51% of open positions are short. However, 73% of trader set up orders are to buy the metal.
GBP/USD abandons previously tested area "Looking at a longer timeframe modelling of the Pound's fair-value, ING say the GBP/EUR exchange rate is now materially undervalued"
– Gary Howes (based on PoundSterlingLive)
Pair's Outlook
GBP/USD opened red on the daily chart Thursday morning, setting a downside target at 1.2829 in sight. The area is represented by the daily S1 and is most likely to be up for solid tests today. Because of the proximity to the area, the cross might lack general volatility today in order to respect the area. In case of severe downside volatility around 15:30 GMT when the US unemployment claims data comes out, 1.2762 might be the level more likely to cut the movement with more demand at 1.2729. Upside risks are currently limited to 1.2898.
Traders' Sentiment
There are 50% of traders holding short positions today (previously 52%), whereas 56% of all pending orders are to acquire the Pound.
Turning point for USD/JPY "The dollar stood at 112.765 yen JPY=, slightly higher than Wednesday and at its strongest level since March 20. "
– Nichola Saminather (based on Reuters)
Pair's Outlook
USD/JPY put an end to the strong climb that had been extended towards the upper boundary of the senior channel that has prevailed since mid-December 2016 with a small red candle on Thursday morning. Risks for our base scenario lie below, meaning that today is most likely to be a turning point in the motion as a break above 112.84 is very unlikely. The first level to the downside rests at 112.35 and is an appropriate target for today. In case the cross continues to stick to the upper bound of the channel, we might see some more upside potential in the future.
Traders' Sentiment
Market sentiment is relatively neutral, as 57% of all open positions are short and the remaining 53% are long. At the same time, the number of orders to buy the Buck slipped from 49% to 48%.
EUR/USD above expected heights "The euro rose versus most G-10 peers as traders appeared to trim bearish bets after a debate between the two French presidential candidates."
– Alexandria Arnold and Dennis Pettit, Bloomberg
Pair's Outlook
The common European currency traded even above the previously expected levels against the US Dollar, as the currency exchange rate was at the 50.00% Fibonacci retracement level on Friday morning. The retracement level is located at the 1.0977 level, and it seems to be providing support for additional Euro gains. The gains are possible, as the upper trend line of the long term ascending channel has been broken due to the recent fundamental changes in Europe. Due to that reason it is possible that the rate will surge above the 1.10 mark by the end of the day.
Traders' Sentiment
SWFX traders remain bearish, as 58% of open positions are short on Friday. Meanwhile, only 51% of trader set up orders are to sell the Euro.
Gold reaches 1,230 mark "There is no doubt that gold is going through a soft patch right now, but it is approaching good support between $1,190 and $1,200."
– Edward Meir, INTL FCStone (based on Reuters)
Pair's Outlook
On Friday morning the yellow metal was in a period of consolidation, which was expected after the losses, which were suffered during the two previous trading sessions. On Thursday the bullion almost touched the 1,225 mark before it suddenly rebounded. The previous forecast of the metal reaching for the combined support of the 100-day SMA at 1,223.79, 38.20% Fibonacci retracement level at 1,219.20 and the monthly S2 at 1,218.01 remains in force. The main fundamental reason for that would be the fact that during the weekend the French election final results will come in, and with it uncertainty will be gone.
Traders' Sentiment
Traders are neutral bearish, as 52% of open positions are short. However, 64% of trader set up orders are to buy.
GBP/USD opens lacking direction "The rapid deterioration in the UK's economic momentum has largely gone unnoticed by an FX market preoccupied with political distractions."
– GJanes Rossiter (Based on Pound Sterling Live)
Pair's Outlook
GBP/USD opened red on the daily chart Thursday morning, setting a downside target at 1.2829 in sight. The area is represented by the daily S1 and is most likely to be up for solid tests today. Because of the proximity to the area, the cross might lack general volatility today in order to respect the area. In case of severe downside volatility around 15:30 GMT when the US unemployment claims data comes out, 1.2762 might be the level more likely to cut the movement with more demand at 1.2729. Upside risks are currently limited to 1.2898.
Traders' Sentiment
There are 49% of traders holding short positions today (previously 50%), whereas 57% of all pending orders are to acquire the Pound.
USD/JPY kicks off to the downside "The dollar fell 0.3 percent against the yen to 112.19, pulling away from a seven-week high of 113.045 yen set on Thursday. "
– Masayuki Kitano (Based on Reuters)
Pair's Outlook
A confirmation of the previously established bounce off the senior channel down pattern on the daily chart came on Friday morning as the pair continued its way towards areas below further away from any upside risks. The pair is now likely to eye the support at 111.82 as a decent target, as it has already penetrated the 112.35 area which was the immediate support amid opening. Upside risks are currently limited to 112.84 where the upper trend-line of the channel is strengthened by the monthly R1.
Traders' Sentiment
Market sentiment has entered bearish territory as 58% of all open positions are short and the remaining 42% are long. At the same time, the number of orders to buy the Buck slipped from 48% to 42%.
EUR/USD retreats after election jump "Macron is a new face and that's exactly what France and Europe need: a fresh start."
– Andre Sapir, Bruegel (based on Bloomberg)
Pair's Outlook
On Monday morning the common European currency was in a retreat against the US Dollar, as it touched the support provided by the weekly PP, which is located at the 1.0958 level. It is most likely that the currency exchange rate will continue to surge, as it could be pushed higher by minor support levels. It could reach next the combined resistance of the weekly and monthly R1s at 1.1040. Meanwhile, market participants should be careful with technical analysis, as the yesterday's election was a large fundamental change for the basis of the Euro.
Traders' Sentiment
SWFX traders remain bearish, as 62% of open positions are short, and 54% of trader set up orders are to sell.
Gold recovers on Monday "Spot gold still targets $1,209 per ounce, as suggested by a Fibonacci retracement analysis."
– Wang Tao, Reuters
Pair's Outlook
After a low opening and touching the 1,221.50 level on Monday morning the yellow metal regained its losses in the early hours of the day's trading session. However, the bullion is still likely to continue the retreat, as the Macron victory in the French Presidential Election is seen as a sign of minor changes in the fundamentals in the financial markets, which could affect the price of the yellow metal. Due to that reason the commodity price might retreat down to the next support cluster, which begins just below the 1,220 mark.
Traders' Sentiment
Traders are neutral bearish, as 51% of open positions are short. However, 68% of trader set up orders are to buy the metal.
GBP/USD leaves 1.30 unchallenged "The rapid deterioration in the UK's economic momentum has largely gone unnoticed by an FX market preoccupied with political distractions."
– GJanes Rossiter (Based on Pound Sterling Live)
Pair's Outlook
Having outperformed the US Dollar, the British Pound approached the 1.30 major level on Friday, but with supply around this area remaining relatively strong. Consequently, another bullish development is not expected to occur, as the Cable is likely to keep weakening until the 1.28 major level is reached—that is where demand is sufficient to trigger a solid rebound. However, technical indicators in the daily timeframe are unable to confirm the pair is to edge lower today, thus, the immediate support, namely the weekly pivot point, at 1.2934 should limit any possible losses today.
Traders' Sentiment
Traders retain a neutral sentiment, as 51% of all open positions are currently short and the remaining 49% are long. At the same time, there are only 54% of orders to acquire the Sterling (previously 57%).
USD/JPY to preserve the channel pattern "The dollar fell 0.3 percent against the yen to 112.19, pulling away from a seven-week high of 113.045 yen set on Thursday."
– Masayuki Kitano (Based on Reuters)
Pair's Outlook
Strong US fundamentals helped the USD/JPY pair to completely recover from its intraday low on Friday and even edge 29 pips higher, retesting the descending channel's resistance line. Today the pair opened with a small bullish gap, but those gains are not expected to hold, with the channel's upper boundary still prevailing. The Greenback should now keep declining against the Yen until the 108.00 mark is reached. However, first the Buck is required to pierce the 55-day SMA, where demand could be sufficient and trigger another rally, eventually leading to the end of the channel pattern.
Traders' Sentiment
Today 61% of traders are short the US Dollar, compared to 58% on Friday. Meanwhile, 52% of all pending orders are to sell the Buck (previously 58%).
EUR/USD near 1.09 mark
"The euro is a sell on rallies above 1.10 against the dollar as the ECB's senior leadership under Draghi and Praet remain cautious about the outlook for euro-zone inflation."
– Mansoor Mohiuddin, NatWest Markets (based on Bloomberg)
Pair's Outlook
On Tuesday morning the common European currency continued to depreciate against the US Dollar, as the currency exchange rate passed the support of the weekly S1, which is located at the 1.0916 level. From a technical perspective on the daily chart the currency exchange rate is likely to retreat down to the 1.0833 level, where the closest support cluster begins. However, on smaller timeframes the situation is different, as there are various short term support levels, which could slow down the fall of the Euro or even induce a rebound.
Traders' Sentiment
SWFX traders remain bearish, as 61% of open positions are short. Meanwhile, 54% of trader set up orders are to sell the Euro.
Gold remains below 1,230 level "Should volatility remain becalmed, gold may find itself on the losing end of a deeper correction to the downside."
– Jeffrey Halley, OANDA (based on Reuters)
Pair's Outlook
During the early hours of Tuesday's trading session the yellow metal's price remained above the 1,225 mark, as the bullion found support in the 100-day SMA. The simple moving average is located at the 1,225.59 level and provides significant support, as it has kept the metal's price from falling during this week. It is most likely that the commodity price will continue the decline, if the SMA is passed, as the lower Bollinger band has moved below the 100-day SMA. Due to that factor the next targeted support is the 38.20% Fibonacci retracement level, which is located at the 1,219.20 level.
Traders' Sentiment
SWFX sentiment is neutral, regarding the metal. However, 66% of SWFX trader set up orders are to buy the bullion.
GBP/USD hovers above the weekly pivot point "GBP-USD has seen a significant short squeeze from the March lows near 1.21. We expect further marginal upside into the 8 June UK general election and raised our forecast to 1.30 for Q2-2017 (from 1.18 previously)."
– Standard Chartered (based on FXStreet)
Pair's Outlook
On Monday, the GBP/USD currency pair behaved in accordance with expectations, having edged slightly lower, with the weekly PP limiting the intraday losses. Although the Cable should continue edging lower, the technical indicators suggest a positive outcome is possible, but with the 1.30 mark remaining unmatched. However, due to lack of potential market movers, the Sterling is also capable of trading relatively flat against the US Dollar today, with risks still skewed to the upside. Ultimately, the 1.3120 handle should be the overall ceiling and the 1.2750–the bottom, as these levels mark the borders of the broadening rising wedge pattern, where the Cable is currently traded in.
Traders' Sentiment
Traders retain a neutral outlook towards the Pound, with 51% of all open positions being short and the other 49% being long.
USD/JPY sets eye on 114.00 "Aside from employment, we've seen some negative surprises in recent U.S. data while the Fed marches ahead to a June rate hike. I think the gap between the two will eventually bring down the dollar."
– Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ (based on Business Recorder)
Pair's Outlook
Not only did the USD/JPY pair manage to recover from its intraday low yesterday, but even establish a new seven-week high of 113.30. The Greenback refuses to give up the bullish momentum, exploiting the recent recovery further, now aiming to reclaim the 114.00 major level. A successful attempt to reach this area is still likely to be short-lived, amid a tough resistance cluster located a few pips higher. Furthermore, assuming the given pair completely broke out from trading within the descending channel's borders, continued positive outcomes are nothing out of the ordinary, which could even lead to reaching a larger scale down-trend, currently located around 117.00.
Traders' Sentiment
Bears keep gaining numbers, as 63% of all open positions are now short. Meanwhile, the share of sell orders remains unchanged at 52%.
