Dear readers,
We are delighted to announce that we are going to be doing forum posts dedicated to financial news. You'll now be able to follow significant market indicators like CPI, PMI, and other related financial information, all in the familiar, interactive format of forum discussions. Our objective is to provide an engaging and informative experience that meets your unique needs. As such, we wholeheartedly welcome your feedback. Your insights will guide us in refining the format and context of these posts. This is your forum, and we are eager to make it the best place for your financial news needs.
Here's to learning and growing together!
Week of 24th - 28th JULY 2023
Week of 24th - 28th JULY 2023
24 July 2023
Monday
On July 24th, four high-impact announcements are scheduled:
- French Flash Manufacturing PMI & French Flash Services
- German Flash Manufacturing PMI & German Flash Services PMI
- British Flash Manufacturing PMI & British Flash Services PMI
- US Flash Manufacturing PMI & US Flash Services PMI
French Flash Manufacturing PMI & French Flash Services
In June, the French economy experienced a disappointing end to the second quarter, with output levels falling for the first time since the beginning of 2023. Both manufacturing and services activity declined, while demand from abroad worsened, and business confidence reached its weakest level in over three years, with concerns about demand and inflation cited by companies. The HCOB Flash France Composite PMI Output Index dropped to a 28-month low of 47.3, and the HCOB Flash France Services PMI Business Activity Index hit a 28-month low of 48.0, while the HCOB Flash France Manufacturing PMI Output Index reached a 2-month low of 44.2, and the HCOB Flash France Manufacturing PMI fell to a 37-month low of 45.5.
The next French Flash Manufacturing & French Flash Services PMI announcement will take place on the 24th of July 2023 at 10:15 GMT+3.
The consensus forecast for the French Flash Manufacturing PMI is 45.5, which would be a decline from the previous month's reading of 48.0. The PMI is a measure of the activity in the manufacturing sector, and a reading below 50 indicates that the sector is contracting.
The decline in the PMI is likely due to a number of factors, including the ongoing war in Ukraine, rising inflation, and supply chain disruptions. These factors are weighing on economic activity in France and other European countries.
The release of the Flash Manufacturing PMI will be closely watched by markets, as it will provide an early indication of the health of the French manufacturing sector. A weak reading could have negative implications for the euro and French stocks.
The consensus forecast for the French Flash Services PMI is 48.0, which would be a decline from the previous month's reading of 52.5. The PMI is a measure of the activity in the services sector, and a reading below 50 indicates that the sector is contracting.
The decline in the PMI is likely due to a number of factors, including the ongoing war in Ukraine, rising inflation, and supply chain disruptions. These factors are weighing on economic activity in France and other European countries.
The release of the Flash Services PMI will be closely watched by markets, as it will provide an early indication of the health of the French services sector. A weak reading could have negative implications for the euro and French stocks.
The Flash Manufacturing PMI and the Flash Services PMI are both released at the same time, so they can be used to get a quick snapshot of the health of the French economy. However, it is important to remember that these are just early estimates, and the final figures could be different.
The German Flash Manufacturing PMI & German Flash Services PMI
The previous HCOB Flash Germany Composite PMI Output Index dropped to a 4-month low of 50.8 in June (from 53.9 in May), the Services PMI Business Activity Index reached a 3-month low of 54.1 (compared to 57.2 in May), and the Manufacturing PMI Output Index fell to an 8-month low of 44.2 (from 47.4 in May). Additionally, the Manufacturing PMI hit a 37-month low of 41.0 (down from 43.2 in May).
The next German Flash Manufacturing & German Flash Services PMI will take place on the 24th of July 2023 at 10:30 AM GMT+3.
The consensus forecast for the German Flash Manufacturing PMI is a reading of 40.6, which would be a decline from the previous month's reading of 43.2. The PMI is a measure of the activity in the manufacturing sector, and a reading below 50 indicates that the sector is contracting.
The decline in the PMI is likely due to a number of factors, including the ongoing war in Ukraine, rising inflation, and supply chain disruptions. These factors are weighing on economic activity in Germany and other European countries.
The release of the Flash Manufacturing PMI will be closely watched by markets, as it will provide an early indication of the health of the German manufacturing sector. A weak reading could have negative implications for the euro and German stocks.
The consensus forecast for the German Flash Manufacturing PMI is a reading of 51.5, which would be a decline from the previous month's reading of 53.7. The PMI is a measure of the activity in the services sector, and a reading below 50 indicates that the sector is contracting.
The decline in the PMI is likely due to a number of factors, including the ongoing war in Ukraine, rising inflation, and supply chain disruptions. These factors are weighing on economic activity in Germany and other European countries.
The release of the Flash Services PMI will be closely watched by markets, as it will provide an early indication of the health of the German services sector. A weak reading could have negative implications for the euro and German stocks.
The Flash Manufacturing PMI and the Flash Services PMI are both released at the same time, so they can be used to get a quick snapshot of the health of the German economy. However, it is important to remember that these are just early estimates, and the final figures could be different.
UK Flash Manufacturing PMI & UK Flash Services PMI
In June, UK private sector business activity grew for the fifth consecutive month, driven by a solid upturn in the service economy. However, manufacturers continued to struggle, with production volumes declining for the eleventh time in the last twelve months. Overall output growth was slower due to softer new order intakes as some clients reduced spending. Inflationary pressures differed, with manufacturing companies reducing factory gate charges for the first time in over seven years, while service providers saw steep rises in their average prices charged. The headline S&P Global / CIPS Flash UK Composite Output Index was 52.8, indicating moderate expansion but easing from previous months. Service providers experienced a slower rate of expansion, while manufacturing sector output levels decreased moderately due to falling new orders and subdued demand.
The Flash UK PMI Composite Output Index declined to a 3-month low of 52.8 in June (from 54.0 in May), accompanied by the Flash UK Services PMI Business Activity Index, which also reached a 3-month low of 53.7 (compared to 55.2 in May). However, the Flash UK Manufacturing Output Index remained unchanged at 47.7 (the same as in May), while the Flash UK Manufacturing PMI dropped to a 6-month low of 46.2 (down from 47.1 in May).
The next upcoming announcement for UK Flash Manufacturing & UK Flash Services will take place on the 24th of July at 11:30 AM GMT+3.
The consensus forecast for UK Flash Manufacturing is a reading of 46.5, which would be a decline from the previous month's reading of 47.1. The PMI is a measure of the activity in the manufacturing sector, and a reading below 50 indicates that the sector is contracting.
The decline in the PMI is likely due to a number of factors, including the ongoing war in Ukraine, rising inflation, and supply chain disruptions. These factors are weighing on economic activity in the United Kingdom and other European countries.
The release of the Flash Manufacturing PMI will be closely watched by markets, as it will provide an early indication of the health of the British manufacturing sector. A weak reading could have negative implications for the pound and British stocks.
The consensus forecast for UK Flash Services PMI is a reading of 52.3, which would be a decline from the previous month's reading of 53.5. The PMI is a measure of the activity in the services sector, and a reading below 50 indicates that the sector is contracting.
The decline in the PMI is likely due to a number of factors, including the ongoing war in Ukraine, rising inflation, and supply chain disruptions. These factors are weighing on economic activity in the United Kingdom and other European countries.
The release of the Flash Services PMI will be closely watched by markets, as it will provide an early indication of the health of the British services sector. A weak reading could have negative implications for the pound and British stocks.
The Flash Manufacturing PMI and the Flash Services PMI are both released at the same time, so they can be used to get a quick snapshot of the health of the British economy. However, it is important to remember that these are just early estimates, and the final figures could be different.
US Flash Manufacturing PMI and US Flash Services PMI
US businesses saw growth in the second quarter, but the pace slowed to a three-month low. Manufacturers reported a decline in production, while service providers had a slower but solid increase. Job growth was the slowest since January, and selling price inflation reached a 32-month low. The S&P Global Flash US PMI Composite Output Index was 53.0, indicating a fifth consecutive monthly increase in activity but slower than in May. Manufacturers' new orders dropped sharply, while service providers had a notable rise. Prices increased, but at a slower rate, and employment grew, but at a softer pace. Confidence differed, with manufacturers less optimistic, while services firms had a strong positive sentiment.
In June, the Flash US PMI Composite Output Index was 53.0, indicating a 3-month low of growth (down from 54.3 in May). The Flash US Services Business Activity Index reached a 2-month low of 54.1 (compared to 54.9 in May), while the Flash US Manufacturing Output Index dropped to a 5-month low of 46.9 (down from 51.0 in May). The Flash US Manufacturing PMI also declined to a 6-month low of 46.3 (from 48.4 in May).
The next upcoming news event for US Flash Manufacturing & US Flash Services PMI will take place on the 24th July 2023 at 16:45 GMT+3.
The consensus forecast for US Flash Manufacturing PMI is a reading of 50.2, which would be a decline from the previous month's reading of 52.4. The PMI is a measure of the activity in the manufacturing sector, and a reading below 50 indicates that the sector is contracting.
The decline in the PMI is likely due to a number of factors, including the ongoing war in Ukraine, rising inflation, and supply chain disruptions. These factors are weighing on economic activity in the United States and other developed economies.
The release of the Flash Manufacturing PMI will be closely watched by markets, as it will provide an early indication of the health of the US manufacturing sector. A weak reading could have negative implications for the dollar and US stocks.
The consensus forecast for US Flash Services PMI is a reading of 51.6, which would be a decline from the previous month's reading of 53.6. The PMI is a measure of the activity in the services sector, and a reading below 50 indicates that the sector is contracting.
The decline in the PMI is likely due to a number of factors, including the ongoing war in Ukraine, rising inflation, and supply chain disruptions. These factors are weighing on economic activity in the United States and other developed economies.
The release of the Flash Services PMI will be closely watched by markets, as it will provide an early indication of the health of the US services sector. A weak reading could have negative implications for the dollar and US stocks.
25 July 2023
Tuesday
On July 25th, one high-impact announcement is scheduled:
CB Consumer Confidence
In June, American consumer confidence reached its highest level in 18 months due to a strong labor market. The Conference Board's index rose to 109.7 (from 102.5 in May), exceeding economists' expectations. The present situation index increased to 155.3 (from 148.9) and the expectations index climbed to 79.3 (from 71.5 in May).
The next upcoming news announcement for CB Consumer Confidence will take place on the 25th July 2023 at 17:00 PM GMT+3.
The consensus forecast CB Consumer Confidence is a reading of 98.0, which would be a decline from the previous month's reading of 103.2. The index is a measure of consumer confidence, and a reading below 100 indicates that consumers are pessimistic about the future.
The decline in the index is likely due to a number of factors, including the ongoing war in Ukraine, rising inflation, and supply chain disruptions. These factors are weighing on economic sentiment in the United States and other developed economies.
The release of the CB Consumer Confidence Index will be closely watched by markets, as it will provide an early indication of the health of the US consumer sector. A weak reading could have negative implications for the stock market and the US dollar.
26 July 2023
Wednesday
On July 26th, two high-impact announcements are scheduled:
- CPI Australia / AUD
- US Federal Funds Rate
CPI Australia / AUD
CPI q/q Australia
In the March 2023 quarter, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 1.4%. Over the past twelve months, the CPI rose by 7.0%. Notably, significant price increases were observed in Medical and hospital services (+4.2%), Tertiary education (+9.7%), Gas and other household fuels (+14.3%), and Domestic holiday travel and accommodation (+4.7%).
The next announcement for CPI q/q Australia will take place on July 26 th, 2023 at 04:30 AM, GMT+3.
The CPI q/q Australia is expected to rise in July 2023. The consensus forecast is for a reading of 1.5%, which would be an increase from the previous quarter's reading of 0.8%. The CPI is a measure of the change in prices of goods and services in Australia, and a reading above 0% indicates that inflation is rising.
The rise in the CPI is likely due to a number of factors, including the ongoing war in Ukraine, rising energy prices, and supply chain disruptions. These factors are putting upward pressure on prices in Australia and other countries.
The release of the CPI q/q Australia will be closely watched by markets, as it will provide an early indication of the pace of inflation in the country. A higher-than-expected reading could have negative implications for the Australian dollar and the stock market.
CPI y/y Australia
In the twelve months leading to May, the monthly CPI indicator surged by 5.6%. Notably, the most significant price increases were observed in Housing (+8.4%), Food and non-alcoholic beverages (+7.9%), and Furnishings, household equipment, and services group (+6.0%). However, this rise was offset by a decline in Automotive fuel (-8.0%).
The next announcement for CPI y/y Australia will take place on July 26 th, 2023 at 04:30 AM, GMT+3
The CPI y/y Australia is expected to rise in July 2023. The consensus forecast is for a reading of 5.7%, which would be an increase from the previous year's reading of 3.4%. The CPI is a measure of the change in prices of goods and services in Australia, and a reading above 0% indicates that inflation is rising.
The rise in the CPI is likely due to a number of factors, including the ongoing war in Ukraine, rising energy prices, and supply chain disruptions. These factors are putting upward pressure on prices in Australia and other countries.
The release of the CPI y/y Australia will be closely watched by markets, as it will provide an early indication of the pace of inflation in the country. A higher-than-expected reading could have negative implications for the Australian dollar and the stock market.
Trimmed Mean CPI q/q
In the first quarter of 2023, the Trimmed Mean CPI in Australia decreased to 1.20 percent from 1.70 percent in the fourth quarter of 2022. This means that the overall price level for a broad basket of goods and services, excluding extreme values, experienced a smaller increase in the first quarter compared to the previous quarter.
The next announcement for CPI q/q, CPI y/y & Trimmed Mean CPI q/q will take place on the 26th of July at 04:30 AM GMT+3.
The Trimmed Mean CPI q/q Australia is expected to rise in July 2023. The consensus forecast is for a reading of 1.3%, which would be an increase from the previous quarter's reading of 0.9%. The Trimmed Mean CPI is a measure of the change in prices of goods and services in Australia, excluding the most volatile prices. A reading above 0% indicates that inflation is rising.
The rise in the Trimmed Mean CPI is likely due to a number of factors, including the ongoing war in Ukraine, rising energy prices, and supply chain disruptions. These factors are putting upward pressure on prices in Australia and other countries.
The release of the Trimmed Mean CPI q/q Australia will be closely watched by markets, as it will provide an early indication of the pace of inflation in the country. A higher-than-expected reading could have negative implications for the Australian dollar and the stock market.
US Federal Funds Rate
Breaking its streak of 10 consecutive rate hikes, the Fed decided not to raise the federal funds rate at the June 14, 2023, FOMC meeting. However, projections did show a continued hawkish tone, with potential rate hikes and a year-end federal funds rate of 5.6%. The Fed believes it is nearing the end of the tightening cycle but remains cautious due to inflation concerns.
The next Federal Funds rate is scheduled for the 26th of July 2023 at 21:00 PM GMT+3.
The Federal Funds Rate US is expected to rise in July 2023. The consensus forecast is for a rate of 3.25%, which would be an increase from the current rate of 1.50%. The Federal Funds Rate is the interest rate that banks charge each other for overnight loans.
The rise in the Federal Funds Rate is likely due to a number of factors, including the ongoing war in Ukraine, rising inflation, and supply chain disruptions. These factors are putting upward pressure on prices in the United States and other countries.
The release of the Federal Funds Rate US will be closely watched by markets, as it will provide an early indication of the pace of monetary policy tightening in the country. A higher-than-expected rate could have negative implications for the stock market and the US dollar.
27 July 2023
Thursday
On July 27th, three high-impact announcements are scheduled plus a press conference will take place.:
- Main Refinancing rate & Monetary Policy Statement / EUR
- Advance GDP q/q / US
- Unemployment Claims / US
- European Central Bank Press Conference
Main Refinancing Rate (MRR) & Monetary Policy Statement (MPS)
According to the accounts of the ECB’s June policy meeting, officials generally agreed that the central bank might consider raising interest rates beyond July due to concerns about prolonged high inflation. Achieving the inflation target within a reasonable timeframe was questioned, leading to discussions about further rate increases. The majority of members supported the 25-basis point increase implemented in June, while some initially favored a 50-basis point increase, considering the risks of persistent high inflation. The ECB emphasized that future decisions would be data-dependent and adopted a meeting-by-meeting approach in an uncertain environment, especially as interest rates were approaching a potential peak level.
The next upcoming Main Refinancing Rate & Monetary Policy Statement will take place on the 27th of July 2023 at 15:15 PM GMT+3.
The EUR MRR is expected to rise in July 2023. The consensus forecast is for a rate of 1.25%, which would be an increase from the current rate of 0.00%. The EUR MRR is the interest rate that the European Central Bank (ECB) charges banks on loans.
The rise in the EUR MRR is likely due to a number of factors, including the ongoing war in Ukraine, rising inflation, and supply chain disruptions. These factors are putting upward pressure on prices in the eurozone and other countries.
The release of the EUR MRR will be closely watched by markets, as it will provide an early indication of the pace of monetary policy tightening in the eurozone. A higher-than-expected rate could have negative implications for the euro and European stocks.
The MPS is expected to be hawkish in July 2023. This means that the ECB is likely to signal that it will continue to raise interest rates in order to combat inflation. The MPS is a document that is released by the ECB after each meeting of the Governing Council. The MPS provides an overview of the ECB's monetary policy stance and its outlook for the economy.
The hawkish tone of the MPS is likely due to a number of factors, including the ongoing war in Ukraine, rising inflation, and supply chain disruptions. These factors are putting upward pressure on prices in the eurozone and other countries.
The release of the MPS will be closely watched by markets, as it will provide an early indication of the ECB's plans for monetary policy. A hawkish MPS could have negative implications for the euro and European stocks.
US Advance GDP q/q
In the first quarter of 2023, the US real GDP expanded at an annualized rate of 1.1%, a decrease from the 2.6% growth in Q4 2022. Despite private consumption surging to 3.7%, the decline in private inventory investment offset these gains. The mixed economic data signal a shift from unsustainable growth in 2022 to a slowdown, presenting a challenge for the Federal Reserve in handling inflation without deepening the economic downturn.
The next Advance GDP q/q announcement for the US will take place on the 27th of July 2023 at 15:30 PM GMT+3.
The US Advance GDP q/q is expected to rise in July 2023. The consensus forecast is for a growth rate of 2.0%, which would be an increase from the previous quarter's growth rate of 1.5%. The Advance GDP is a measure of the change in the US economy's gross domestic product (GDP) from one quarter to the next.
The rise in the Advance GDP is likely due to a number of factors, including the ongoing economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, strong consumer spending, and increased business investment.
The release of the Advance GDP will be closely watched by markets, as it will provide an early indication of the pace of economic growth in the United States. A higher-than-expected growth rate could have positive implications for the stock market and the US dollar.
Unemployment Claims US
According to the U.S. Department of Labor's recent report on Thursday, there was a decline in initial jobless claims for the week ending July 15. The number of claims reached 228,000, which was lower than the expected 242,000 and the previous week's figure of 237,000 (which was not revised). The four-week moving average also went down to 237,500, a decrease of 9,250 from the unrevised average of 246,750 in the previous week.
Regarding continuing jobless claims, they exceeded expectations at 1.754 million, compared to the anticipated 1.729 million. These claims were slightly higher than the revised figure of 1.721 million from the previous period (initially reported as 1.729 million). The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate remained unchanged at 1.2% for the week ending July 8 compared to the previous week.
In simpler terms, these statistics indicate that there have been significant changes in initial jobless claims and ongoing unemployment trends, providing valuable insights into the current state of the U.S. labor market.
The next upcoming US Unemployment claims are scheduled on the 27th of July 2023 15:30 PM GMT+3.
The Unemployment Claims US is expected to decline in July 2023. The consensus forecast is for 235,000 claims, which would be a decrease from the previous week's claims of 245,000. The Unemployment Claims is a measure of the number of people who filed for unemployment benefits in the United States.
The decline in the Unemployment Claims is likely due to a number of factors, including the ongoing economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, strong job growth, and a tight labor market.
The release of the Unemployment Claims will be closely watched by markets, as it will provide an early indication of the health of the US labor market. A lower-than-expected number of claims could have positive implications for the stock market and the US dollar.
ECB Press Conference
The upcoming ECB Press Conference will be held at 14:30 CET on July 27, 2023. The press conference will be live-streamed on the ECB's website.
The President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde, is expected to discuss the following topics at the press conference:
- The state of the eurozone economy
- The ECB's monetary policy stance
- The outlook for inflation in the eurozone
- The ECB's plans for future monetary policy
The press conference will also be an opportunity for Lagarde to answer questions from journalists. These questions will likely focus on the following topics:
- The impact of the war in Ukraine on the eurozone economy
- The risk of stagflation in the eurozone
- The ECB's plans to reduce its balance sheet
The ECB Press Conference is a valuable source of information about the ECB's monetary policy and the outlook for the eurozone economy. Investors and analysts should pay close attention to the press conference and to the questions that are asked by journalists.
28 July 2023
Friday
On July 28th, seven high-impact announcements are scheduled (two of them tentative):
- BOJ Outlook Report & Monetary Policy Statement / JPY (TENTATIVE)
- BOJ Press Conference / JPY (TENTATIVE)
- German Prelim CPI m/m / EUR
- GDP m/m / CAD
- Core PCE Price Index m/m / USD
- Employment Cost Index q/q
- Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment
TENTATIVE
BOJ Outlook Report & Monetary Policy Statement / JPY (TENTATIVE)
The BOJ Outlook Report is a quarterly report that provides the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) assessment of the Japanese economy and its outlook. The report is released alongside the BOJ's Monetary Policy Statement.
A recent survey revealed that over 30,000 food and beverage items in Japan experienced price increases this year, with 195 companies planning to raise prices for these items due to higher raw material costs.
The BOJ Outlook Report is expected to be released on July 28, 2023 at 10:00 AM JST. The consensus forecast is for the BOJ to maintain its current monetary policy stance, which includes a negative interest rate and quantitative easing.
The BOJ is likely to reiterate its commitment to achieving its 2% inflation target. However, the report is also likely to acknowledge that the path to achieving this target is becoming more challenging due to the ongoing war in Ukraine and other factors.
The BOJ is likely to maintain its current assessment of the Japanese economy, which is that it is "moving toward a moderate recovery." However, the report is also likely to acknowledge that the pace of economic growth is slowing and that there are some downside risks to the outlook.
The Monetary Policy Statement is a document that is released by the BOJ after each meeting of the Policy Board. The statement provides an overview of the BOJ's monetary policy stance and its outlook for the Japanese economy.
The Monetary Policy Statement is expected to be released on July 28, 2023 at 10:30 AM JST. The statement is likely to reiterate the BOJ's commitment to achieving its 2% inflation target. However, the statement is also likely to acknowledge that the path to achieving this target is becoming more challenging due to the ongoing war in Ukraine and other factors.
The BOJ is likely to maintain its current monetary policy stance, which includes a negative interest rate and quantitative easing. However, the statement is also likely to acknowledge that the BOJ is facing some challenges in achieving its 2% inflation target.
TENTATIVE
BOJ Press Conference
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) will hold a press conference next Friday, July 28, 2023, at 2:30 PM JST. The press conference will be led by BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, and will follow the release of the BOJ's Monetary Policy Statement.
The press conference is expected to be closely watched by markets, as it will provide an opportunity for Kuroda to discuss the BOJ's monetary policy stance and its outlook for the Japanese economy.
In particular, markets will be interested in hearing whether Kuroda will provide any updates on the BOJ's quantitative easing (QE) program. The BOJ has been conducting QE since 2013, and has recently come under pressure to scale back the program as inflation in Japan has risen to its highest level in decades.
However, Kuroda has so far resisted calls to scale back QE, arguing that it is necessary to support economic growth and prevent inflation from becoming entrenched. It remains to be seen whether Kuroda will maintain this stance at the upcoming press conference.
Other topics that are likely to be discussed at the press conference include the impact of the war in Ukraine on the Japanese economy, and the outlook for the global economy.
The BOJ Press Conference is a key event in the Japanese monetary policy calendar, and will provide investors with an important update on the BOJ's thinking.
ALL DAY
German Prelim CPI m/m / EUR
The German Preliminary CPI m/m is a monthly economic indicator that measures the change in consumer prices in Germany from one month to the next.
In the previous announcement, German inflation rose to 6.4% year-on-year in June, up from 6.1% in May, indicating a temporary break in the disinflationary trend. However, it is expected to gain stronger momentum after the summer. The harmonized European measure showed headline inflation at 6.8% YoY, from 6.3% in May, further supporting the potential for increased disinflation in the coming months.
The German Preliminary Consumer Price Index (CPI) m/m is scheduled for July 28, 2023, and will be conducted throughout the entire day.
The consensus forecast is for the German Prelim CPI m/m to rise by 0.3% in July 2023, up from 0.2% in June 2023.
The rise in the German Prelim CPI m/m is likely due to a number of factors, including the ongoing war in Ukraine, which is pushing up energy prices, and the reopening of the economy, which is putting upward pressure on prices for goods and services.
GDP m/m / CAD
The Canadian GDP m/m is a monthly economic indicator that measures the change in gross domestic product (GDP) in Canada from one month to the next.
The actuals for Canadian GDP m/m in June 2023 were 0.2%, which was below the consensus forecast of 0.3%. The decline in GDP was driven by a number of factors, including:
- Rising interest rates made it more expensive to borrow money, which slowed down the housing market. This led to a decrease in the value of new construction.
- Rising input costs and supply chain disruptions slowed down manufacturing output. This led to a decrease in the production of goods.
- Rising inflation made consumers more cautious in their spending, which slowed down the services sector. This led to a decrease in the demand for services.
The Bank of Canada expects the Canadian economy to slow in the second half of 2023, as the effects of the Bank's interest rate hikes start to take hold. The Bank is also prepared to raise interest rates further if necessary, to bring inflation under control.
The next upcoming GDP m/m announcement will take place on the 28th of July 2023 at 15:30 GMT+3.
The consensus forecast is for the Canadian GDP m/m to rise by 0.1% in July 2023, down from 0.3% in June 2023.
The decline in the Canadian GDP m/m is likely due to a number of factors, including the ongoing war in Ukraine, which is disrupting supply chains and weighing on economic activity, and the Bank of Canada's interest rate hikes, which are slowing economic growth.
Core PCE Price Index m/m / US
The Core PCE Price Index m/m is a monthly economic indicator that measures the change in core consumer prices in the United States from one month to the next. Core consumer prices are those that exclude food and energy prices, which are more volatile.
The Core PCE Price Index m/m for June 2023 came in at 0.6%, which was above the consensus forecast of 0.5%. This was the highest reading since November 2021, and it was driven by a number of factors, including:
- Rising energy prices: Energy prices rose by 1.3% in June, the largest monthly increase since March 2022. This was due to higher prices for gasoline, natural gas, and electricity.
- Rising food prices: Food prices rose by 0.6% in June, the largest monthly increase since February 2022. This was due to higher prices for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs.
- Rising rents: Rents rose by 0.4% in June, the largest monthly increase since November 2021. This was due to strong demand for housing and limited supply.
The 0.6% reading for the Core PCE Price Index m/m in June 2023 suggests that inflation remains a significant concern for the Federal Reserve. The Fed is expected to continue raising interest rates in an effort to bring inflation under control.
The next announcement is scheduled for the 28th of July 2023 at 15:30 PM GMT+3.
The consensus forecast is for the Core PCE Price Index m/m to rise by 0.5% in July 2023, up from 0.6% in June 2023.
The rise in the Core PCE Price Index m/m is likely due to a number of factors, including the ongoing war in Ukraine, which is pushing up energy prices, and the reopening of the economy, which is putting upward pressure on prices for goods and services.
Employment Cost Index q/q / US
The Employment Cost Index q/q is a quarterly economic indicator that measures the change in compensation costs for civilian workers in the United States. The index is released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and is based on a survey of employers.
The Employment Cost Index (ECI) for the US in the quarter ending March 2023 showed that compensation costs for civilian workers increased by 1.2%. This was higher than the 1.1% increase in the quarter ending December 2022. Compensation costs for civilian workers increased 4.8% for the 12-month period ending March 2023, compared with an increase of 4.5% in March 2022. Wages and salaries increased 5.0% for the 12-month period ending March 2023, compared with an increase of 4.7% in March 2022. Benefit costs increased 4.5% for the 12-month period ending March 2023, compared with an increase of 4.1% in March 2022.
The next upcoming Employment Cost Index q/q will take place on the 28th of July 2023 at 15:30 PM GMT+3.
The Employment Cost Index q/q is expected to rise in the second quarter of 2023. The consensus forecast is for a reading of 0.7%, which would be a rise from the previous quarter's reading of 0.6%. The Employment Cost Index q/q is a measure of the change in compensation costs for civilian workers in the United States. A rise in the index suggests that wages are rising, which can have implications for inflation and economic growth.
The rise in the Employment Cost Index q/q is likely due to a number of factors, including the strong labor market, rising inflation, and skills shortages. The release of the Employment Cost Index q/q will be closely watched by markets, as it will provide an early indication of the health of the US labor market.
Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment / US
The Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment is a monthly economic indicator that measures the sentiment of US consumers about the current state of the economy and their future expectations. The index is released by the University of Michigan and is based on a survey of consumers.
According to the final results from the University of Michigan Survey of Consumers, consumer sentiment in June 2023 registered a significant increase of 8.8%, reaching a value of 64.4. This represents a substantial year-over-year rise of 28.8%. Joanne Hsu, the director of the Survey of Consumers, noted that the improvement in consumer sentiment was unanimous across all demographic groups, with the year-ahead economic outlook surging by 28% compared to the previous month, and long-run expectations also rising by 11%. The positive shift in attitudes is attributed to the resolution of the debt ceiling crisis early in the month and improved perceptions regarding softening inflation. However, views on personal financial situations remained unchanged due to the persistent impact of high prices and expenses on consumers.
Regarding inflation expectations, the year-ahead projection declined for the second consecutive month, decreasing from 4.2% in May to 3.3% in June. This marks the lowest reading since March 2021. Meanwhile, long-run inflation expectations remained relatively steady compared to May, staying within the narrow range of 2.9-3.1% for 22 out of the last 23 months. These figures indicate that long-term inflation expectations remained elevated compared to the 2.2-2.6% range observed in the pre-pandemic period.
The next upcoming revised University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment is scheduled for the 28th of July 2023 at 17:00 PM GMT+3.
The Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment is expected to decline in July 2023. The consensus forecast is for a reading of 50.0, which would be a decline from the previous month's reading of 50.2. The decline in the index is likely due to a number of factors, including the ongoing war in Ukraine, rising inflation, and supply chain disruptions. These factors are weighing on economic activity and consumer confidence in the United States.
The release of the Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment will be closely watched by markets, as it will provide an early indication of the health of the US consumer sentiment. A weak reading could have negative implications for the stock market and the dollar.
Disclaimer: The market news provided herein is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as trading advice.