Daily Market Analysis from Hotforex Broker

[HFM]

Date : 14th February 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 14th February 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: The global stock market rally run out of steam in Asia overnight and the Nikkei closed with a 1.13% loss, as markets turn cautious ahead of Yellen’s testimony to lawmakers. A strong Yen added to pressure on Japanese bourses, with other Asian indices only slightly in the red. U.S. and U.K. stock futures are also down, however, and while the overall sentiment still seems cautiously optimistic markets seem to be waiting for a clearer trigger to extend gains. Core European yields moved higher and yield curves steepened yesterday, while peripheral long yields declined and the spread over the German benchmark narrowed, at least in the 10-year area. The picture was very different for 2-year yields, which climbed in France, Italy and Spain, where yield curves flattened as the short end underperformed and spreads widened. Today’s very busy calendar starts with German GDP and inflation data at the start of the session, followed by GDP numbers from Italy, Portugal and the Eurozone, as well as inflation data from Switzerland and the U.K.

FX Update: The dollar is trading at moderately softer levels, despite seeing a flurry of buying just ahead of the London interbank open. USDJPY has retreated to the lower portion of the 113s amid a generally firmer yen today, which has recouped losses sub-113.50 levels as the risk-on vibe of yesterday was replaced by a risk-off one today. The sudden resignation of Trump’s national security advisor Flynn, and a nosedive in Toshiba shares after the conglomerate delayed its earning announcement, soured investor risk appetite. Markets are also being cautious ahead of Fed Yellen’s testimony before the Senate today. Most Asian stock indicies gave up intraday gains and declined into the red, while the Nikkei closed 1.1% for the worse. USDJPY breached both yesterday’s low and its 20-day moving average. Last Friday’s low at 112.88 provides a near-term target. EURUSD recovered above 1.0600 from 1.0591 low, while the dollar has posted an eight-day low versus the Canadian dollar, a two-day low against the Australian dollar, and has seen three-day lows versus sterling.

Germany: The January HICP inflation was confirmed at 1.9% y/y, in line with the preliminary number and up from 1.7% y/y in December. The breakdown confirmed that the rise was to a large extent driven by energy prices. Prices for heating oil rose 42.5% y/y, petrol prices were up 12.8% y/y and excluding mineral oil products, German inflation would have been just 1.3% y/y. So while the German headline HICP rate is pretty much in line with the ECB’s definition of price stability as close to, but below 2%, the numbers back Draghi’s argument that the uptick is due to temporary base effects. And with much of Draghi’s QE program an insurance policy against stability risks, the data won’t stop asset purchases, but the ECB’s critics in Germany will also feel justified as growth is robust.

US: U.S. equities continue to migrate higher into record territory as faith-based algos pile on their buy orders on the shoulders of last week’s “big league” tax cut promises. The WTI crude has turned turtle and eased back below $53 bbl as the ramp up in domestic shale production nips at the heels of 90% compliance with OPEC supply cuts.US markets closed at record highs with Apple being the main driver, i.e. closed at 133.29 which was a rise of 0.89%.

Canada: Trudeau’s opening remarks were constructive in his joint presser with Trump. The PM said much of Canada’s economy depends on U.S. integration, and that the U.S. and Canada will always be essential partners. The free flow of goods and services must be allowed, he said. In a joint statement, the two leaders said “As the process continues for the Keystone XL pipeline, we remain committed to moving forward on energy infrastructure projects that will create jobs while respecting the environment.” Border security is a “top priority.” Equities have moved slightly higher, adding to modest gains. GoC yields remain elevated, with 2 to 3 bp gains across the yield curve relative to Friday’s closing levels. More broadly, risk-on conditions remain supportive of equities and yields.

Main Macro Events Today

• German ZEW – German investor confidence for February will be even more interesting than usual as it should give an indication about the impact of mounting political risks and the growing tensions between the new U.S. administration on sentiment. Expectations are to 15.1 from 16.6 last time.

• UK PPI & CPI – Inflation data expected to rise in the headline rate to 1.9% y/y after 1.6% y/y in December. That would bring CPI to within 0.1% of the BoE’s target. The central bank reaffirmed in the February edition its quarterly Inflation Report that it expects CPI to top out at 2.8% y/y in the first half of 2018.

• US Core PPI – January PPI is out today and should reveal a 0.3% headline with a 0.2% increase for the core. This compares to December figures which had the headline at 0.3% and the core at 0.2% as well. Oil prices have been rebounding this winter but the pace if improvement tapered off in January.

• Fed’s Report and Fed’s Yellen – Fed Chair Yellen goes to Capitol Hill to give her twice-yearly Humphrey-Hawkins testimony to Congress, for the Semiannual Monetary Policy Report before the Senate Banking Committee.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 15th February 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 15th February 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Yellen may have signaled that the Fed remains on track to raise rates, but stock markets seem to have taken it in their stride. Asian markets mostly posted robust gains and the Nikkei closed up 1.03% on the day, amid hopes that a weak currency will continue to underpin exporters and earnings. European markets closed narrowly mixed yesterday and U.S. stocks were also higher at the close and against that background Bund and Gilt futures, which were knocked lower by Yellen yesterday are likely to remain under pressure, with long yields on the rise again. Peripheral yields, spreads and curves remain volatile amid political risks and ongoing ECB asset purchases. The local calendar calm down after yesterday’s bumper day. The Swedish Riksbank is expected to keep monetary policy on hold. The U.K. releases its monthly labour market report, and the Eurozone has trade numbers for December and some national inflation data.

Fedspeak: Fed Chair Yellen said yesterday, the Fed will adjust the rate path as the economy evolves, and will evaluate progress at our “upcoming meetings.” Hence, she has kept March on the table (it’s always been “live” in the Fed’s rhetoric). She added that further policy adjustment will likely be needed if the economy remains on track. She also warned that it would be “unwise” to wait too long to tighten. The gradual approach to rate hikes was reiterated as the FOMC expects further moderate expansion in the economy, and a gradual rise in inflation to the 2% target. She also indicated that the economic outlook is uncertain, especially with potential changes in fiscal policy. Some of the headwinds that have restrained growth were mentioned, and she reiterated the “notable improvement” in business sentiment from the February 1 FOMC statement. She also addressed inflation and its pick up over the past year amid the diminishing effects of earlier declines in energy prices and import prices. For the balance sheet, Chair Yellen hopes the asset purchase program was unusual intervention, and the Fed hopes it will be much smaller, eventually. The Fed doesn’t want to use its portfolio as an active policy tool, but would rather use interest rates. Stopping the reinvestment will be a gradual process. Chair Yellen also reiterated that the Fed remains data dependent, so upcoming reports on CPI, retail sales, and employment will matter a lot.

Germany: The ZEW investor confidence weaker than expected, with the headline reading falling to 10.4 from 16.6 in the previous month. A slight decline to around 15 was expected, but in the event, it seems rising political risks are hitting investors and the ZEW dropped for the first time since July last year, when confidence fell back after the Brexit vote in the U.K. The fact that the reading remains in positive territory, which indicates that optimists continue to outnumber pessimists, but even the current conditions indicator fell back and the Eurozone expectations index dipped to 17.1 from 23.2. More reasons for Mr. Draghi and Co to keep the insurance policy of ongoing asset purchases in place for now.

UK: Sterling dove 0.5% before settling in the wake of the UK inflation data, which saw both the headline and core CPI measures miss expectations, although the former still hit a two-and-a-half-year peak of 1.8% y/y. Cable hit yesterday a low of 1.2445 before steadying, leaving Monday’s low at 1.2440 unchallenged and leaving the pound at about the midway point of the choppy range that’s persisted for nearly three weeks now. Additionally, there is a caveat in the inflation data as PPI output prices spiked to 3.5% y/y, the sharpest rate in five years and suggesting that higher CPI prices are in the pipeline. PPI input prices rose 20.5% y/y, up from 17.0% y/y in December, itself revised up from 15.8%. The start of the UK’s exit negotiations with the EU — the point that the rubber will hit the tarmac — is now nearly, with PM May reportedly gunning for a March-7 trigger-date of Article 50.

Main Macro Events Today

• US CPI & Retail Sales – January CPI is out today and should reveal a 0.4% headline with the core up 0.2% for the month. This follows December figures of 0.3% for the headline and 0.2% for the core. January retail sales data should reveal a 0.1% headline increase with the ex-autos component up 0.6% for the month.

• US Manufacturing data – U.S. NY Fed “Empire State” Index for February expected to climb to 9.0 after January’s dip to 6.5 from 7.6 in December. Producer sentiment firmed into year end and in January we saw the ISM-adjusted average of all measures climb to 54 from 53 in both December and November.

• Fed’s Yellen – Fed Chair Yellen testifies to the House Financial Services Committee.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 16th February 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 16th February 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Global stock markets continue to move higher and after European and U.S. bourses closed with gains, most Asian markets also managed to rise. Japanese bourses were the notable exception, with investors apparently spooked by a rise in indices of future volatility in U.S. markets, which raised doubts about the sustainability of the especially the U.S. run higher. A stronger yen, which weighed on automakers and exporters didn’t help either and the Nikkei closed with a -0.47% loss. U.S. stock futures are indeed in the red, while FTSE 100 futures are still managing gains, after yesterday’s broadly higher close in Europe. The FTSE 100 managed to close above 7300 and the DAX also remains at lofty highs even if gains above the 11800 mark could be held into the close. The Italian MIB underperformed after some rumors that Renzi is pushing for snap elections in September, which would only add to Europe’s political challenges this year. Today’s data calendar is quiet, with Italian trade numbers, as well as Eurozone current account data and inflation numbers from Sweden.

FX Update: The dollar has remained on a back foot, marginally extending the correction from post-U.S. data highs of yesterday. USDJPY has fallen back under 114.00, logging a low of 113.76 in Tokyo trade today. The move comes after the pair topped out at near three-week highs of 114.95 in the aftermath of yesterday’s hotter U.S. CPI outcome. Good selling was reported from the highs, with profit taking ramping up into the key 115.00 level, where a wave of Japanese exporter offers is reportedly sitting. The 50-day moving average is at 114.88. EURUSD has breached above yesterday’s peak in making 1.0624. AUDUSD rallied to a three-month peak at 0.7732, since settling just under 0.7700.

Fedspeak: During Fed Chair Yellen’s testimony, to House Financial Services Committee, she did state that she believes much of the rally on Wall Street is a function of hopeful fiscal policy expectations. The firmer dollar, meanwhile, reflects expectations of Fed rate hikes. She hopes that the economy will allow the Fed to raise rates faster. On the border tax, she sees great uncertainties with respect to impacts on trade and currency flows. Unfortunately, much of the day’s testimony saw grandstanding from many committee members who seemed more interested in throwing barbs at the new administration, rather than discussing key issues of monetary policy and the economy. Hence, there weren’t any fresh insights on how Yellen viewed today’s stronger than expected data and if the reports upped the chances for a March tightening. Meanwhile, Fed’s Harker repeated he supports 3 rate hikes this year, assuming the economy remains on track, in his speech on the economic outlook. The economy is more or less back at full strength he said, forecasting GDP growth a little above 2%. And he expects the inflation target to be met later this year or next. He does think the economy needs more workers and immigration could help.

US reports: revealed a wide array of upside surprises that have boosted prospects for the consumer and factory sectors in the face of rising confidence, small business optimism and producer sentiment, with a solid inventory reversal and a big bounce in the inflation gauges into 2017 that lift the risks of a Fed tightening at the March FOMC meeting. We saw January retail sales gains of 0.4% overall and 0.8% ex-autos after upward revisions, alongside a 0.4% December business inventory rise that lifted Q1 GDP estimate to 2.2% from 2.0% after an expected Q4 boost to 2.2% from 1.9%. We saw a 0.3% January industrial production drop that reflected temporary weather and auto hits, but with upward revisions that left a strong report, alongside a February Empire State surge to a 29-month high of 18.7 with an ISM-adjusted pop to 54.5. We saw a 0.6% January CPI gain with a 0.3% core price rise that left respective y/y gains of 2.6% for the headline and a cycle-high 2.3% for the core.

Main Macro Events Today

• ECB Report – ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts Report.

• US Philly Fed Index – February U.S. Philadelphia Fed Index is expected to dip to 15.0 after a January surge to 23.6 from 19.7 in December. The Empire State index for the month was already released and posted a big headline bounce to 18.7 from 6.5 in January. Producer sentiment in February now looks poised to hit a two-year high with the ISM-adjusted average of all measures rising to 55 from 55 in January.

• US Housing Starts & Unemployment Claims – January housing starts data should reveal a 1,226k headline for the month. This would be an unchanged pace following the 11.3% bounce to this level in December from 1.102k in November. Initial claims data for the week February 11 expected to rise to 247k after a big dip to 234k in the week prior. Claims in February are expected to average a stronger 244k in February from 247k in January and 258k in December.

• NZ Retail Sales – New Zealand’s Retail Sales for last quarter of 2016, expected to rise by 0.2%, i.e. 1.1% from 0.9% last quarter.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 17th February 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 17th February 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets headed south. U.S. stock futures are also in the red and only the FTSE 100 future is posting marginal gains. The correction in stock markets seems to be continuing Reflation trades have run out of steam for now and investors remain hesitant as indices remain at lofty highs. It may need another trigger though, to push the FTSE 100 lastingly above 7300 and the DAX above 11800. The correction on bourses should continue to underpin bond futures, with long yields heading south again yesterday especially in Eurozone peripherals after yesterday’s BoE minutes confirmed that the central bank is considering temporary deviations from QE purchases according to the bank’s capital key. Today’s calendar includes Eurozone current account and BoP data as well as U.K. retail sales and Swedish inflation data.

FX Update: The dollar has consolidated losses, with major pairings showing less than a net 0.2% chance since the New York close yesterday as London interbank traders take to their desks. USDJPY has settled in the mid 113s after logging a low of 113.07 in the New York PM session yesterday, which completed a near two-big figure drop from Wednesday’s peak. EURUSD has steadied in a narrow range shy of yesterday’s 1.0670 high. It’s a similar picture in other pairings. We retain a bullish view on the dollar the back of the contrasting Fed versus most other central bank policy outlooks, with the former expected to trigger three more 25 bp hikes this year.

US reports: revealed a round of big upside surprises for business and consumer sentiment, alongside solid labor market and housing sector readings, hence adding to the robust round of data released on Wednesday. We saw a February Philly Fed surge to 43.3 that left the strongest reading since January of 1984, when payrolls rose 446k and GDP growth reached 8.2%, and the ISM-adjusted measure rose to a 6-year high of 57.8, leaving a spike reminiscent of the small business optimism surge. We saw a rise in yesterday’s Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index to a 10-year high of 48.1. We saw small 5k rise in initial claims to a lean 239k in the second week of February, leaving an average thus far for the month of just 237k. Finally, we saw a 2.6% January housing starts drop with a 4.6% permits increase that beat estimates thanks to upward revisions to prior starts figures that left a strong trajectory for both measures to likely Q1 new cycle-highs, after solid but weather-boosted Q4 figures.

New Zealand and Japan: New Zealand’s calendar has Producer Price Index during the weekend (Sunday). Additionally, Japan will release adjusted Merchandise Balances and Import, Exports data for January late on Sunday as well.

Main Macro Events Today

• UK Retail Sales – The UK’s official retail sales report for January is up today, where a 0.9% m/m is expected, rebound after the unexpectedly sharp 1.9% m/m drop in December, though be warned as already-released January surveys of the sector by the CBI and BRC suggest downside risk.

• US CB Leading Indicator – US Leading Indicator released by the Conference Board for January, expected to be unchanged following the 0.5% in December.

• Canada Foreign securities – Canadian calendar today, features International Securities transactions for December, where $11.59B expected from $7.24B reported last time.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 20th February 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 20th February 2017.

FX News Today

It’s been a busy couple of weeks so far in February with politics dominating, though monetary policy issues were back in the spotlight with Yellen’s testimony and the ECB minutes indicating the bank mulled stepping back from QE via the capital key. There will be no want of global issues, data, and events ahead to keep the markets choppy. Of course, Mr. Trump will remain a focal point, especially as tax initiatives may be trickling out, though the border adjustment tax may be on the ropes. But there is also rising angst over the upcoming French elections after the Left considered combined forces. A Eurozone Finance Ministers meeting is on tap, with Greece bailout problems back in the spotlight. Attention is also turning to March — Beware of the Ides. There are two important events on the 15th, the FOMC meeting and the elections in the Netherlands. Each could have significant market consequences ahead.

United States: The U.S. calendar is a relatively lean one this week when markets reopen on Tuesday after the long President’s Day weekend. The February Markit Flash PMI (Tuesday) is likely to show a dip to 54.0 on manufacturing from 55.0. MBA mortgage market data are due (Wednesday), along with existing home sales forecast to rise 1.1% to 5.55 mln from 5.49 mln. Initial jobless claims may bounce back 8k (Thursday) to 247k for the week ended February 18. The week winds down with new home sales (Friday) forecast to rebound 6.3% to a 570k unit pace in January from 536k in December. Michigan sentiment (final) is expected to be left unrevised at 95.7 in February.

Fedspeak: The Fed minutes (Wednesday) will be scoured for clues on the policy stance, but the report has lost much of its impact in the wake of chair Yellen’s testimony and the strength in recent data on inflation, sales, production, and confidence. Of course, the Fed left policy unchanged at its February 1 meeting. The key for the report will be the degree to which policymakers thought a rate hike might be affected sooner rather than later. Meanwhile, there are only likely to be a minority of FOMC members who were factoring in fiscal stimulus into their outlooks, and the majority won’t front-run fiscal initiatives. Rather than the minutes, the markets will look to upcoming data, especially payrolls, to fine-tune March rate hike probabilities. Geopolitical risks and market impacts will also play a part. While Fedspeak will be important, Chair Yellen didn’t show any urgency for a March tightening, nor have the two voting doves, Evans and Kashkari. Minneapolis Fed centrist Kashkari will take part in a conversation on the economy and the role of the Fed (Tuesday) from 8:50 ET and Philly Fed hawkish Harker discusses the economic outlook from Wharton in Philadelphia from 12 ET. Governor Powell will give his update on policy and the economy (Wednesday). Later in the week (Thursday) Atlanta Fed centrist Lockhart will be “Looking Back on 10-years at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta” from 8:35 ET. Yellen’s next scheduled speaking engagement is set for Friday, March 3 at an Executives Club of Chicago even.

Canada: The holiday shorted week is long on important economic reports. While markets are closed Monday for Family Day, Statistics Canada will release wholesale trade, which is expected to reveal a 1.0% m/m gain in shipment values during December. Retail sales (Wednesday) are seen expanding 0.1% in value terms during December. But the ex-autos aggregate is expected to improve 1.0% after the 0.1% rise in November. The wholesale and retail reports will solidify the December GDP outlook. Average weekly earnings for December are due Thursday, and are expected to be consistent with a tame compensation backdrop. The CFIB’s Business Barometer survey of small and medium business for February will also be released Thursday. The January CPI (Friday) is expected to power higher by 0.4% m/m in January after the 0.2% drop in December. Annual growth is projected to accelerate to 1.7% y/y from the 1.5% y/y growth rate in December. Bank of Canada Senior Deputy Governor Wilkins participates in a panel discussion (Tuesday) at the Competition Bureau Ottawa, but the remarks will not be published on the Bank’s website.

Europe: The data calendar heats up with the second round of February confidence data in the form of Eurozone PMIs and the German Ifo, but with Eurozone Finance Ministers meeting at the start of the week, the Greek bailout problems will remain in focus and election jitters and Eurozone breakup concerns are also unlikely to go away. The latter has been fueling increased volatility in peripheral spreads over the German benchmark, but also yield curves in recent weeks, although speculation of possible “real” QE tapering also played a role, as growth remains robust and inflation spiked higher. Data releases include detailed Q4 GDP readings from Germany and the Eurozone. The German February Ifo Business Climate expected higher to 109.9 from 109.8, as strong orders are hoped to have lifted the expectations readings, but with inflation and import, as well as producer price inflation, rising sharply and political risks picking up, confidence indicators come with a slightly higher error margin than usual. Meanwhile PMI readings are expected to come in narrowly mixed across countries, but remain firmly above the 50 point no change mark. The Eurozone Manufacturing PMI is expected to rise to 55.2 from 55.2, while the services reading is seen at 53.8, slightly higher than the 53.7 in the previous month. At the same time inflation is moving higher and the Eurozone HICP reading is expected to be confirmed at 1.8% y/y, already broadly in line with the ECB’s upper limit for price stability. With core inflation stuck much lower at 0.9% y/y, the data does back Draghi’s view, however, that the uptick is driven mainly by base effects from energy prices, which means so far at least the ECB is content to ignore the rise and remain on course for a further expansion of the balance sheet. The calendar also includes final inflation numbers from France and Italy, as well as French national business confidence numbers. Germany sells EUR 1 bln of 30 year Bunds.

UK: Sterling came under pressure last week, losing ground to the G3 currencies, along with other European currencies and the dollar bloc units. One bearish driver has been data. The other bearish driver is the nearing start of the EU exit negotiation process, as there remains uncertainty about how the process will pan out. Markets will get a better hold on this once the negotiation gets under way. The UK data calendar schedule this week starts with the February CBI industrial trends survey (Monday), which expected to show a near steady +4 reading, in the headline total orders reading. Monthly government borrowing data is also up (Tuesday), ahead of the second-estimate of Q4 GDP (Wednesday), which is widely anticipated to come in unrevised at 0.6% q/q and 2.2% y/y. The February CBI distributive sales survey (Thursday) has us anticipating a moderation in the headline realized sales figure, to 24 from 26 in January. BBA mortgage approvals are also due (Friday).

Japan: The December all-industry index (Tuesday) is penciled in a -0.3% m/m, reversing November’s 0.3% gain, given the broad-based weakness in the tertiary index, with wholesale and retail trade lower. January services PPI (Thursday) should come in at 0.5% y/y from 0.4%. The accelerating price pressures are good news for the BoJ. Revised December leading and coincident indices are due Thursday.

Australia: The calendar has a double dose of Governor Lowe: The Reserve Bank of Australia governor speaks at the Australia-Canada Economic Leadership Forum in Sydney (Wednesday). And he appears before The House of Representative’s Standing Committee on Economics (Friday). The minutes to the February meeting will be released Tuesday. Recall the Bank held rates steady at 1.50%, matching expectations. Economic data features Q4 private capital expenditures (Thursday). The wage price index (Wednesday) is projected to grow 0.4% (q/q, sa) after the matching 0.4% gain in Q3.

New Zealand: The next meeting of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is on March 23rd. The bank held the OCR steady at 1.75% last week, matching expectations.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 21st February 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 21st February 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets traded mixed overnight. Hang Seng and ASX are in the red, but bourses in Japan and mainland China managed to climb higher. The Nikkei closed up +0.68%, underpinned by a weaker yen helped to underpin exporters and the BoJ’s purchases of exchange traded funds. Carmakers and banks gained, while telecommunication shares dragged. Comments from Fed’s Harker that he wouldn’t take a March hike off the table underpinned a stronger USD and U.S. stock futures are also higher, while FTSE 100 futures are down, as Sterling rose in tandem with the Dollar. The FTSE 100 already underperformed yesterday and once again didn’t manage to close above 7300, while the DAX finally seems to be taking the 11800 mark. Bund yields dropped yesterday despite the stronger currency, after progress in Greek bailout talks, Gilt yields rose, as did French yields as Le Pen continues to advance in the polls. Frexit remains very unlikely, but after the U.K. and U.S. poll surprises, markets are not taking any risks this time around. Today’s calendar has Eurozone PMI readings for February, as well as U.K. public finance data and final French inflation numbers.

Japan: Japan’s preliminary Manufacturing PMI for February exceeded expectations and climbed up to 53.5 from 52.7 last time. This value is a multi-year high. As Reuters states, Flash Manufacturing Output Index at 54.3 (53.2 in January) has been then sharpest rate of growth for three years, which can be reflected to a record-high for business confidence at Japanese manufacturers. Samuel Agass, economist at IHS Markit, stated that: “Japan’s manufacturing engine shifted into a higher gear during February, as faster increases in output, new business and employment were reported. Subsequently, business confidence was at a survey-high, with goods producers buoyed by the strongest upturn in the sector for 35 months. “

Canada: Canada’s wholesale improvement bodes well for December GDP: The 0.9% increase in shipment volumes suggests wholesalers will provide a solid positive contribution to GDP. The 2.3% gain in December manufacturing shipment volumes should be the driver of the expected 0.3% m/m gain in December GDP. An as-expected monthly gain would leave a 2.0% GDP growth pace in Q4 overshooting the BoC’s 1.5% estimate and presumably providing additional reassurance to the bank that the pick-up in the economy anticipated for 2017 is on track. Retail sales volumes are expected to contract. Housing starts improved 10.2% to a 206.3k unit pace in December. Hence, the contribution from construction production should be positive. The outlook for mining, oil and gas production is to the upside. Energy export values grew 15.9% m/m in December, but higher prices were the reason for the gain. Yet the manufacturing report’s petroleum and coal shipment values grew 11.6%, driven by firmer volumes as a number of refineries resumed production after maintenance and retooling work in September and October.

Germany: German PPI inflation jumped to 2.4% y/y from just 1.0% y/y in the previous month. The uptick was higher than expected and the breakdown confirmed that the turnaround from the firmly negative rates last year was mainly driven by a sharp pick up in energy and basic goods prices. The former jumped to 4.0% y/y from 0.2% y/y in December, while basic goods price inflation rose to 2.4% from 1.1%. Price increases for durable as well as non-durable goods remained pretty stable, and it will take some time for the uptick in energy prices t feed through, but with a tight labour market, the risk of second round effects are higher in Germany than in most other Eurozone countries.

Australia: RBA February Meeting minutes were published early today, and extended on an unchanged rate decision. Hence higher commodity prices and higher terms of trade have been observed, which lead Australian dollar to a slight growth. For Inflation, RBA mentioned that based on the enhanced labor conditions, wage inflation us likely to show a quicker increase.

Main Macro Events Today

• EU PMI – Preliminary PMI readings for February, are expected to come in narrowly mixed across countries, but remain firmly above the 50 point no change mark. The Eurozone Manufacturing PMI is expected to rise to 55.2 from 55.2, while the services reading is seen at 53.8 slightly higher than the 53.7 in the previous month, which should leave the composite unchanged at 55.4. The Eurozone recovery remains intact, but with preliminary consumer confidence taking a hit this month, the political clouds gathering over the monetary union mean the balance of risks remains tilted to the downside.

• UK BOE & Finance Data – January’s government borrowing data is also up today, and expected to come down to -14.4B from 6.4B last time. Also, Governor Carney is going to give a speech later today.

• US Markit PMI – The February Markit Flash PMI expected to show a dip to 54.7 on manufacturing from 55.0. The Markit services PMI is seen slipping to 55.5 from 55.6.

• RBA – RBA Governor Lowe speaks at the Australia-Canada Economic Leadership Forum in Sydney.

• Fedspeak – Minneapolis Fed centrist Kashkari will take part in a conversation on the economy and the role of the Fed from 8:50 ET and Philly Fed hawkish Harker discusses the economic outlook from Wharton in Philadelphia from 12 ET.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 22nd February 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 22nd February 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets were mostly higher in the wake of yesterday’s U.S. stock rally. Japan underperformed and markets fell back but ra;llied in the final hour to close flat at 19, 379, as the Yen rebounded and spoiled the party for exporters. Overall though bourses remain in a buoyant mood and U.S. and FTSE 100 futures are also moving higher, after the S&P 500 closed at a new record high, and the DAX managed to move above the 11900 mark. The FTSE 100 dropped yesterday, amid a new bout of Sterling strength and while futures are up this morning, the FTSE 100 is likely to continue to underperform the DAX, as GDP moves above 1.18 against the EUR. Against that background core yields are likely to continue to move higher especially if the German Ifo goes the way of PMIs and comes in higher than expected and Eurozone HICP is confirmed at 1.8% See below) . The European calendar also has second-estimate of U.K. Q4 GDP, which is widely anticipated to come in unrevised at 0.6% q/q and 2.2% y/y (also see more below).

FX Update: The dollar has been trading so far today, advancing against the euro into the London open while showing a more net indifferent profile versus other currencies. The euro has come under fresh pressure. EURUSD has breached last Wednesday’s low at 1.0521 and logged a six-week low at 1.0519. EURJPY is also lower, trading at 12-day lows, and EURGBP has forayed into two-month lows. Concerns about Frexit are dominating over what has been a continued run of forecast-beating data out of the Eurozone through to yesterday’s flash February PMI surveys. More of this theme seems likely as currency reserve managers, corporations and investors hedge for the worst. USDJPY has lifted off its 113.33 low, recouping to around 113.50, amid a bullish session in Asian stock markets, which followed a record-high-producing rally on Wall Street on Tuesday. The pair traded as low as 112.62 last Friday, so the yen remains at lower on the week, although it has gained versus the beleaguered euro. USDJPY logged a five-session high at 113.77 yesterday. Cable has ebbed under 1.2500 after failing to sustain a number of rises above here over the last day. AUDUSD has eked out three-session highs just shy of 0.7700, with the Aussie benefiting from the risk-on backdrop.

Oil Breaks Higher? Oil prices broke higher yesterday and have continued to move north today after OPEC continued to suggest a strong compliance with production cuts agreed in November. As production curbs hold the draw on huge stockpiles accrued since 2104 should start to have an impact on prices. However, as OPEC curbs are implemented and non – OPEC follow, the USA shale producers continue to add more rigs into production. (Fridays Baker Hughes rig count was another record at 597). The U.S. West Texas Intermediate April crude contract, the new front-month future, was up 16 cents, or 0.3 percent, at $54.49 a barrel at 0552 GMT. On Tuesday, the March contract expired up 1.2 percent after reaching its highest since Jan. 3. Since the November agreement WTI has continually failed to break the $54.00 level, the next few sessions of the new April contract could determine where prices move from here. The DoE data tomorrow will be where we get our next direction; the data is set to be released on Thursday, a day later than normal, following a U.S. public holiday on Monday.

Fedspeak: Arch hawk Mester was across the airways yesterday with appearances on Bloomberg and CNBC “comfortable with rate hike” and economy “close to inflation target” she is not a voter this year but will be from 2108. Fellow hawk Philly Fed Harker was calling for 3 rate hikes this year, looking for consumer spending to bolster 2% economic growth. He also sees labor market tightening and more or less at full health. Earlier in the day he revealed that a March hike was on the table, though we knew that from Yellen’s semi-annual testimony where every meeting is now “live.” Still, that underscores the recent trends. Finally SF Fed’s Williams: risks to financial stability may be greater with persistently low global interest rates, which present daunting challenges for central banks. He suggests that once-extraordinary central bank policies are likely to become the norm. The typically dovish non-voter has been a bit more vocal of this year on interest rate normalization, but these remarks are offering mixed signals.

Main Macro Events Today

• FOMC Minutes – The minutes, aren’t likely to shed a lot of light on the policy path and the risk for a March hike in the wake of Chair Yellen’s testimony last week. Additionally, the decision is partly dependent on upcoming data, and especially the jobs report (March 10). Fedwatchers will be looking for the degree to which policymakers thought a rate hike might be affected sooner rather than later. But we doubt there were many on the Committee who anticipated some of the big upside surprises the data, including the CPI. Meanwhile, there is only likely to be a minority of FOMC members who were factoring in fiscal stimulus into their outlooks. And, recent Fedspeak suggests the discussions on the balance sheet are still wide open.

• UK GDP – This is the second estimate of UK GDP and expectations are for a stable unchanged estimate of 0.6% for the final quarter of 2016. Year on year estimates are to the upside at 2.2%. A strong end to 2016 is expected but with inflation rising and investment and consumer confidence and consumption showing signs of slowing the first half of 2017 may not be so positive.

• German IFO – After the strong round of German PMI readings yesterday the consensus forecast for a rise in the German February Ifo to 109.9 from 109.8 in January has a bias on the upside. Strong orders data already suggested a pick up in confidence, with inflation and import, as well as producer price inflation, rising sharply and political risks picking up, confidence indicators come with a slightly higher error margin than usual. Still, like the PMIs the Ifo should be less impacted by political jitters than the ZEW investor confidence indicator, which came in weaker than hoped, although even the latter remains at high levels and shows that optimists continue to outnumber pessimists. For Draghi though that doesn’t mean that he can finally relax as Frexit concerns and election jitters keep especially bond markets at tenterhooks and French yields at elevated levels.
• Canadian Retails Sales – The expectations are for retail sales, to improve just 0.1% in December after the 0.2% gain in November. The ex-autos sales aggregate is seen expanding 1.0% in December after the 0.1% rise in November. Gasoline prices rebounded 3.1% m/m in December after the 4.3% drop in November, according to the CPI . But vehicle sales fell in December, taking back the improvement in November. Hence total retail sales are seen as nearly flat due to the vehicle sales drag. But sales excluding the autos component are seen sharply higher, thanks to the boost from gasoline station sales.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Stuart Cowell
Senior Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 23rd February 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 23rd February 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: The stock rally started to fizzle out yesterday. The DAX didn’t manage to hold gains above 12000 and closed slightly below and while the FTSE 100 managed gains above 7300 Eurozone peripherals headed south, and U.S. stocks closed narrowly mixed, which was followed by a disappointing session in Asia, where the Nikkei was -0.04% down at the close. Yesterday’s FOMC minutes showed no sign of urgency for a March hike, even if “many” officials saw the chance of a hike “fairly soon”. Bund futures moved up from lows in after hour trade, but while FTSE 100 futures are moving higher, U.S. stock futures are still narrowly mixed. Bund gains should continue to be capped by a reversal of safe haven flows, as French political jitters eased somewhat and French yields came down sharply on Wednesday. Still, Eurozone breakup fears will continue to haunt bond markets. Strong data out of the U.K. and Germany yesterday failed to dampen the uptick in Bund and Gilt futures. Today’s calendar includes detailed German GDP at the start of the session, followed by French business confidence and the U.K. CBI retailing survey.

Fedspeak: Fed governor Powell largely toed the line on gradual hikes, based on the economy roughly meeting its forecast path, with risks to the outlook now more in balance after a period of Fed patience. He expects stable economic growth and inflation back up to its 2% target over the next couple years, while a further modest drop in unemployment would equate with further labor market tightening. Powell believes the Fed is close to its employment objective and now requires non-monetary policies to encourage participation. On shrinking the balance sheet, he said there’s a time to reconsider the balance sheet, but first must get “well away” from zero rates. He expects that rates can be raised again “perhaps reasonably soon,” while it’s very difficult to incorporate fiscal changes into economic forecasts. March is on the table in terms of a possible rate hike and one option is to raise rates soon if the economy continues on its current path. He would prefer to keep the portfolio stable until rates are high enough to “react to a downturn,” while shrinking the balance sheet is a way to remove accommodation.

FOMC minutes: “many” officials saw chance of a hike “fairly soon” if the economy remained on track. That’s not a new sentiment, however, and doesn’t hint strongly at March. A “few” officials thought that a hike at an upcoming meeting would give the Committee flexibility. Several judged the risk of a “sizable undershooting of the longer run normal unemployment rate was high” and if that were the case a more aggressive stance might be needed. But, inflation was still running short of the Fed’s goal, a few saw downside risks. “A couple of participants expressed concern that the Committee’s communications about a gradual pace of policy firming might be misunderstood as a commitment to only one or two rate hikes per year.” And while there was no formal discussion of the balance sheet, participants “also generally agreed that the Committee should begin discussions at upcoming meetings about the economic conditions that could warrant changes in the existing policy of reinvesting proceeds from maturing Treasury securities.” While March is on the table, the Fed and the markets will be in wait and see mode, watching the data and financial conditions for clues.

UK: UK second-estimate Q4 GDP was revised upwards in the q/q figure, to 0.7% growth from the 0.6% preliminary estimate and the 0.6% growth of Q3. The y/y comparison was revised downwards, however, to 2.0% from 2.2%, also below the 2.2% y/y growth clip reported in the previous quarter. The ONS stats office highlighted that the better than expected q/q figure was driven by an improvement in the manufacturing sector, which rose 1.1%, while the big service sector put in a steady growth rate of 0.7%. The contribution form exports were stronger than expected, rising 4.1% q/q, which followed a 2.6% q/q contraction in exports in Q4. Imports fell 0.4% q/q. Business investment fell 1.0% q/q. For 2016 as a whole, the economy rose 1.8%, below the preliminary estimate of 2.0% growth. An inventory drawdown and weaker exports accounted for the downward revision in the annual figure.

Canada: Canada’s retail sales a set-back for December GDP: The 1.0% drop in retail sales volumes was a surprise but not a shock, as higher gasoline prices were seen lifting both the total and ex-autos sales value figures. Instead, broad-based volume declines resulted in the first decline since June. The drop-in retail sales volumes is a source of downside risk to our 0.3% estimate for December GDP. But we are maintaining that projection given upbeat manufacturing, wholesale and energy figures. Wholesales grew 0.9% and manufacturing surged 2.3%. Housing starts improved 10.2% to a 206.3k unit pace in December. Hence, the contribution from construction production should be positive. Energy export values grew 15.9% m/m in December although higher prices were behind the gain. Yet the manufacturing report’s petroleum and coal shipment values grew 11.6%, driven by firmer volumes as a number of refineries resumed production after maintenance and retooling work in September and October. An as-expected monthly gain would leave a 2.0% GDP growth pace in Q4 (q/q, saar), overshooting the BoC’s 1.5% estimate and providing additional reassurance to the bank that the pick-up in the economy anticipated for 2017 is on track.

Main Macro Events Today

• US Crude Oil – Last week’s EIA Crude Oil Inventories expected to fall to 3.4M from 9.5 M last time.

• US Initial Jobless Claims & House Price – Initial jobless claims may bounce back 8k to 247k for the week ended February 18. FHFA home price index is expected to rise 0.37% to 242.2 in December, along with EIA energy.

• RBA – RBA Governor Lowe will testify before the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics, in Sydney.

• Fedspeak – Atlanta Fed centrist Lockhart will be “Looking Back on 10-years at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta” from 8:35 ET.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 24th February 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 24th February 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets headed south. Investors peddled back in China amid concerns that recent gains were overdone and the ASX ended the weak lower as metal prices dropped. Metal and machinery groups also dragged down Japanese markets, and the Topix closed with a 0.4% loss. U.S. and U.K. stock futures are equally in the red and global markets remain wobbly and investors in cautious mode. In Europe, the rebound in Sterling continues to weigh on the FTSE 100 and core yields continue to head south, with France now catching up again, as election jitters eased somewhat. Other Eurozone peripheral markets, however, continue to underperform, highlighting that Eurozone breakup fears have not gone away and will continue to haunt Draghi. Today’s economic calendar is pretty quiet, but includes French consumer confidence, Italian business confidence as well as BBA loans for house purchases from the U.K.

Fedspeak: Dallas Fed’s Kaplan reiterated the Fed should move sooner rather than later, suggesting he might support a tightening next month if the jobs data cooperates. He’s on the hawkish end of the voting spectrum so it may not take much for him to call for a hike. But, he also said that accommodation can be removed gradually and patiently. That indicates he might be able to go along with no change next month too, especially if the data aren’t terribly strong. He also wants to study shrinking the balance sheet as rate normalization progresses. He projects 2017 growth in the 2% region and sees the economy near full employment. Additionally, Fed’s Lockhart, said the data supported 2-3 hikes this year. He favors a natural run off of the balance sheet, in further comments. He sees the Fed’s portfolio shrinking to about $1.5 tln to $2 tln over a multi-year time frame, from the current $4.5 tln. Based on the Fed’s dots, the neutral rate has declined and hence the stopping point for rate hikes is likely lower than it was in the past. But much will depend on the inflation trends. On regulations, he expects Dodd-Frank to be softened, not scraped.

US reports: an increase of 6k in U.S. initial claims to 244k in the BLS survey week, which extended the prior 4k increase to 238k to leave claims still just above the 43-year low of 233k last November. There was as extremely tight claims path over the six weeks since the period of holiday volatility came to a close. Claims are well below the 263k average in 2016, and certainly well below the 6-month high of 275k as recently as mid-December. Claims are averaging 239k in February, versus higher prior averages of 247k in January, 258k in December, 252k in November, 258k in October, and 254k in September. The 244k February BLS survey week reading sits at the low end of recent BLS readings of 237k in January, 275k in December, and 233k in November. U.S. FHFA home price index rose 0.4% to 242.6 in December after rising 0.7% to 241.6 in November. Home prices are up 6.2% y/y. Seven of the nine regions surveyed posted gains on the month.

Crude Oil and Canadian dollar: Crude Oil fell to $54.44 from $54.89 following the EIA inventory data which showed a 564k bbl rise in crude stocks. The street had been expecting a 3.0 mln bbl increase, though API reported a 900k bbl decrease after the close on Wednesday. Meanwhile, gasoline supplies, seen down 1.0 mln bbls actually fell 2.6 mln bbls, while distillate stocks were down 4.9 mln bbls, versus expectations for a 0.5 mln bbl fall. Refinery usage fell to 84.3% from 85.4%. The pull-back in crude oil following the EIA data lifted USDCAD to 1.3113 from 1.3094.

Main Macro Events Today

• CA CPI – Canadian CPI is expected to accelerate to a 1.7% y/y pace in January from 1.5% y/y in December. The CPI is expected to expand 0.4% in January versus December, as gasoline prices continued to track higher. Also, prices in general tend to turn higher beginning in January. The Bank of Canada has expressed guarded optimism that CPI will gradually move back towards the 2% target. However, Poloz said rate hikes are still on the table as long as downside risks to the inflation target still exist. The December CPI report did not lessen the downside risk, but did not exacerbate it either.

• US New Home Sales – January new home sales data expected to be 6.3% headline increase that brings the pace up to 570k for the month after a 10.4% dip in December to a 536k pace. The NAHB composite dipped to 67 in January from 69 in December but the MBA purchase index managed to notch an increase for the month with a 2.5% increase.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 27th February 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 27th February 2017.

FX News Today

Political jitters have underpinned a safe haven bid in bonds through the month, while ongoing euphoria over “Trumponomics” has boosted equities to, or near, record highs. The strength of the bullish price action so far this year leaves the markets susceptible to a selloff, especially with a number of major risk events ahead. President Trump’s State of the Union (Tuesday) is the immediate wild card. National elections in the Netherlands (March 15) will be closely monitored. Other key events in March include FOMC and ECB meetings, and the reinstitution of the U.S. debt limit. There’s also an EU summit and the possible triggering of Brexit Article 50. Additionally, French presidential candidates are vying for attention ahead of elections on April 23. German politics also are coming into view, even well before the September vote.

United States: U.S. markets rallied last week on a combination of factors, but gains are at risk this week with President Trump’s State of the Union address (Tuesday) the biggest threat to the euphoria in equities. Politics will continue to dominate the headlines near term. President Trump delivers his first State of the Union address (Tuesday) and that could be a big wild card for the markets which are looking for specifics on the administration’s fiscal plans, especially with respect to deregulation, tax reform, including the border adjustment tax, infrastructure spending, and healthcare. The data slate is heavy with key reports on tap for the new year. The volatile January durable orders (Monday) are projected rebounding 1.0%. It will be interesting to see if orders bounce given the surge in investor enthusiasm on the “Trump effect.” The second look on Q4 GDP (Tuesday) should accelerate to a 2.2% pace from the 2.1% gain in the Advance report, supported by an expected consumption boost. Also slated is the Chicago PMI (Tuesday), seen jumping back to 54.0 in February after the unexpected drop to 50.3 in January. February consumer confidence (Tuesday) should edge up to 112.0 after dropping 1.5 points to 111.8 in January. March kicks off with the February ISM manufacturing index (Wednesday), expected to slide to 55.5 after rising 1.5 points. The reports on income and consumption for January (Wednesday) will help fine tune the Q4 and Q1 GDP outlooks. The ISM services index for February completes the week’s reports.

Fedspeak: will be closely monitored, but it’s likely to be too revealing regarding the March 14, 15 FOMC meeting result. Fed Chair Yellen highlights (Friday), but she’s speaking at an event before the Executives Club of Chicago. She won’t prejudge the upcoming decision, especially without benefit of the January jobs report (March 10). The hawkish Fed voter Kaplan starts off the week (Monday) with a speech. Another hawk, Philly Fed’s Harker speaks on the economic outlook (Tuesday). Also, the increasingly hawkish nonvoters’ SF Fed’s Williams and Bullard will also be on tap (Tuesday). Kaplan speaks again (Wednesday). The dovish governor Brainard will address the economic outlook (Wednesday). Fed hawk Mester speaks on leadership (Thursday). Friday is a busy day with the dovish voter Evans and hawkish nonvoter Lacker speaking on a panel. VC Fischer will discuss Fed policy decision-making at the Chicago Booth School’s annual policymaking forum. The Beige Book (Wednesday) for the upcoming FOMC will be released too. It should reiterate a moderate growth trajectory, continued tightening in the labor market, and some nascent signs of price pressures.

Canada: The BoC’s rate announcement is the main event (Wednesday). No change to the current 0.50% rate setting is projected. Recent economic data has added further reassurance that the projected recovery slated for this year is progressing roughly as anticipated, which should be enough to keep the cautiously optimistic tone from January intact. There are several important reports this week. Topping the list is Q4 GDP (Thursday), expected to grow at a 2.0% pace after the 3.5% rebound in Q3. December GDP (Thursday) is seen expanding at a 0.3% m/m clip following the 0.4% surge in November. The Q4 current account deficit (Wednesday) is projected to narrow to -C$9.0 bln from -C$18.3 bln in Q3, thanks to the dramatic return to a merchandise trade surplus in November and December. The industrial product price index (Tuesday) is expected to rise 0.7% m/m in January after the 0.4% gain in December, as gasoline prices surged higher during the month. The annual capital expenditures survey (Tuesday) will provide the always interesting business investment intentions, this time for 2017. The Markit manufacturing PMI for February is due Wednesday.

Europe: This week’s round of data releases will confirm the picture of stronger growth and rising inflation, with the Eurozone headline rate expected to come in bang in line with the ECB’s definition of price stability as below but close to 2%. But while this should be a time for jubilation for Draghi and finally a time the central bank to relax, mounting political risks mean the central bank’s helping hand is still needed. French election jitters may have eased somewhat and in Germany the euphoria over Socialist candidate Schulz is not only denting Merkel’s chances, but has also cut into support for Eurosceptics on the right end of the spectrum, the Dutch election (March 15) is drawing nearer and after markets were burned in last year’s U.S. and U.K. votes they are clearly taking no chances. This week’s data calendar focuses on the last set of confidence data for February as well as preliminary inflation numbers for February. Final PMI readings (Thursday and Friday) are unlikely to bring major surprises and are expected to confirm the Manufacturing PMI at 55.5 and the services reading at 55.6. These numbers were much stronger than initially expected and together with the robust German Ifo point to the risk of an upside surprise in the Eurozone ESI Economic Confidence indicator.

UK: The calendar this week is highlighted by the February PMI surveys. We expect the manufacturing PMI (Wednesday) to dip slightly, to a reading of 55.5 after 55.9 previously. The construction PMI has us anticipating a 52.0 reading, down fractionally from 52.2 in January. Other data includes the BoE’s report on lending for January. The BoE’s easing measures since the Brexit vote last year have driven many lending rates to historic lows, which should underpin the data.

Japan: Japan’s docket kicks off Tuesday with several important releases. Preliminary January industrial production is expected to rise 0.5%. A monthly decline hasn’t been posted since July, an encouraging sign for growth, although there’s downside risk from the slightly firmer yen this year on safe haven flows given political uncertainties in the U.S. and Europe. January retail sales are expected to remain in contraction. January housing starts should post a 3.0% y/y pace, down from 3.9% in December. January construction orders are due Tuesday as well. They’ve been choppy over the past year, but have slowed considerably since the 16.3% y/y pace in September, posting a -6.0% y/y pace in November, but rebounding 7.1% y/y in December. The MoF Q4 capex survey (Wednesday) is forecast jumping to a 1.0% y/y rate from -1.3% in Q3. The final February Markit manufacturing PMI (Wednesday) is estimated to have improved to 53.0 from January’s 52.7. The rest of the week’s releases come on Friday. January national CPI is expected to have accelerated slightly to 0.4% y/y from 0.3% y/y overall, but unchanged at a -0.2% y/y rate on a core basis. Tokyo February CPI likely slipped to -0.2% y/y overall. Inflation remains a real uncertainty for Japan, but signs of an emergence of global price pressures could be filtering through into Japan too. January unemployment is seen holding at 3.1%, with the job offers/seekers ratio steady at 1.43. January personal income and PCE are due, with the latter expected to fall to a -0.5% y/y clip from -0.3% y/y in December. Finally, February consumer confidence is penciled in at 43.5 from 43.2.

Australia: Australia’s calendar is data rich this week, in contrast to a poor RBAspeak slate. The highlight is Q4 GDP (Wednesday), expected to rebound 0.6% after the 0.5% tumble in Q3. The Q4 current account deficit (Tuesday) is seen narrowing to -A$7.0 bln from -A$11.4 bln in Q3. The trade report (Thursday) is projected to show a A$4.0 bln surplus in January after the A$3.5bln surplus in December. Building approvals (Thursday) are seen falling 0.5% m/m in January after the 1.2% drop in December. There is nothing from the Reserve Bank of Australia this week. The next event is the March 7 meeting, which we expect to reveal no change to the 1.50% rate setting.

New Zealand: New Zealand’s calendar has the January trade report (Tuesday). Trade prices are due on Wednesday. The next meeting of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is on March 23rd. The RBNZ is expected to hold the OCR steady at 1.75%

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 28th February 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 28th February 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are mostly down, with Japan outperforming and managing a marginal gain. Chinese shares traded in Hong Kong are heading for the biggest monthly advance since August, but after hopes of a “phenomenal” tax package from Trump helped to push markets higher earlier in the month, investors remain cautious ahead of Trump’s speech in Congress today. The Nikkei closed with marginal gains today, after moving down from earlier highs as the Yen strengthened. U.K. stock futures are rising, but U.S. futures are slightly in the red. Oil prices are up and the front-end Oil is trading at USD 54.16 per barrel. The European calendar today has French and Italian inflation data for February, French consumer spending and Q4 GDP, as well as the Swiss KOF.

Fedspeak: Dallas Fed’s Kaplan is confident that U.S. economic growth will be higher than 2% in 2017, while monetary policy is currently “highly accommodative” and the Fed should start removing that accommodation slowly. He noted that even by raising rates a “few times” this year would leave that policy stance accommodative and the Fed should hike sooner than later. Kaplan also believes the U.S. can go “a little deeper” in reducing the jobless rate before creating price pressures. This is about par for the course from moderate voter and won’t really move the needle on the policy outlook, though March remains a “live” meeting. Furthermore, he said there’s not a question that low rates are distorting. But, he still expects low rate to prevail for a long time and even cautioned that ramping up too quickly causes distortions too. And he reiterated that when the Fed normalizes rates, the surprise could be that it does so at a lower rate than has historically been the case. Indeed, he thinks the neutral rate might be in the 2.25% to 2.5% area.

US reports: U.S. durable goods orders rebounded 1.8% in January, stronger than expected. The firm 1.8% US durable orders rise reflected a 6.0% pop for transportation orders despite declines for Boeing orders and vehicle assemblies, as reversed the opposite divergence in December, alongside a 0.2% decline in orders ex-transportation that matched assumptions. We saw a firm round of equipment data but lean shipments and inventories, and the mix modestly lifted both Q4 and Q1 growth prospects. Pending home sales index drops 2.8% to 106.4 in January after rebounding 0.8% to 109.5 in December, which followed November’s 1.3% tumble to 108.6. It’s the lowest level in a year. But, contract signings are up 2.7% y/y versus December’s -2.0% rate. Declines in the West (-10.3%) and Midwest (-5.2%) paced the weakness and offset small gains in the Northeast (2.2%) and South (0.5%). The National Association of Realtors said insufficient supply are making for a lull in pending home sales, while worries over rising mortgage rates, as well as declining home affordability (particularly in the West) could be impacting too.

Main Macro Events Today

• US President – US President Trump delivers his first State of the Union address to Congress.

• US GDP – The second release on US Q4 GDP is out today and we expect to see the headline revised up to 2.2% from 1.9% in the first release and 3.5% in Q3 of last year. Upward revisions should be broad based but we expect the major drives to be an $11 bln upward revision to consumption and a $6 bln upward revision to inventories.

• US Consumer Confidence – February consumer confidence will be out and should reveal a headline increase to 112.0 from 111.8 in January and 113.3 in December. Other measures of confidence have been mixed on the month with Michigan Sentiment dipping to 96.3 from 98.5 in January.

• CAD IPPI – Industrial product price index (IPPI) expected to expand 0.5% m/m in January after the 0.4% gain in December. Gasoline prices were sharply higher in January, commodity prices were modestly firmer but the loonie was stronger against the U.S. dollar. The IPPI is expected to post a 2.4% y/y rate of increase in January after the 2.2% y/y gain in December.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 01st March 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 01st March 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Stock markets moved mostly higher in Asia overnight, with Japan leading and posting the biggest gain in two weeks, as the Yen dipped following hawkish comments from Fed officials, which have boosted speculation of a March rate hike. U.S. and FTSE 100 futures are also moving higher. Trump’s eagerly awaited speech in Congress yesterday was short of details, but his first address to Congress seemed to convey a softer tone, designed to win over the political center. Stock markets seem to react in a positive way, but Japan aside any gains in Asia were muted as investors eye the Fed. The European calendar has German labour market and inflation data today, with the latter likely to bring the German headline rate above the ECB’s upper limit for price stability. Final manufacturing PMI readings are not expected to bring major surprises and confirm preliminary numbers. The U.K. has BoE lending data as well as the CIPS manufacturing PMI, which is expected to fall back to 55.5 from 55.9 in the previous month.

Fedspeak: SF Fed’s Williams said a March hike is very much on the table and should get “serious consideration.” The economy has made enormous progress and he’s confident that the economy will continue to continue growing at a healthy pace. “We’re very close to achieving our dual mandate goals. Yet monetary policy essentially still has the pedal to the metal,” and he thinks it’s time to start ease off the gas to avoid a “too hot” economy. Nationally, we’ve hit full employment, he said, but we’re still moving toward the 2% inflation goal. Williams, a non-voter this year, was one of the more dovish on the Committee, but he shifted to a more hawkish stance earlier last year.

US reports: revealed a disappointing 1.9% Q4 GDP growth clip, and the weak January trade and inventory data in the advance indictor report prompted a downward bump to our Q1 GDP estimate to 2.0% from 2.2%. Also, February consumer confidence pop to 114.8 that left the highest reading since July of 2001, and the GDP report included upward income revisions that will also raise consumption prospects into 2017. The producer sentiment climb is proving particularly intense, with a February Chicago PMI surge to a 2-year high of 57.4 that likely reflects an estimated 5% February vehicle assembly rate bounce. The Richmond Fed surged to an 11-month high of 17.0 from 12.0 in January with strength in the jobs components, and the ISM-adjusted measure surged to a 7-year high of 57.6 from 54.8 in January.

Main Macro Events Today

• German Inflation – German headline HICP inflation is expected to top the ECB’s upper limit for price stability and rise to 2.1% y/y with the preliminary February reading, from 1.9% y/y in January. . If German number comes in as expected, the Eurozone headline rate will likely pick up to at least 1.9% thus adding to pressure on Draghi ahead of next week’s council meeting.

• US ISM Manufacturing PMI – February ISM manufacturing index expected to slide to 55.5 after rising 1.5 points to 56.0 in January, the best reading since November 2014.

• CAN. Interest Rate Decision – BoC’s rate announcement is the main event today. No change to the current 0.50% rate setting is projected. The announcement stands alone, with a lack of press conference or Monetary Policy Report to fine tune.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 2nd March 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 2nd March 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: The global stock market rally continued in Asia overnight, as investors continue to celebrate Trump’s speech in Congress, which was short on details, but struck a more cautious tone and managed to revive risk aversion. The ASX outperformed and closed with a 1.3% gain, while the Nikkei was up 0.9% at the close. FTSE 100 and DAX managed to close above key levels of 7300 and 12000 respectively, but U.K. and U.S. futures are narrowly mixed, indicating that at these high levels investors are starting to get cautious again and may want to see more details from Trump, especially as the Fed is eying a March rate hike and the combination of strong growth and rising inflation is putting pressure on Draghi in Europe. Today’s preliminary Eurozone HICP could well hit 2.0%, after stronger than expected German numbers yesterday. The calendar also has Swiss Q4 GDP, German import prices, and Eurozone PPI and labour market data.

Fedspeak: Dallas Fed’s Kaplan reiterated the view that rates should rise in a gradual way, a process the Fed should begin to stay ahead of inflation heating up and avoiding the need to hike rates dramatically. He views economic growth as sluggish by historical standards, but relatively healthy given demographics. Kaplan is taking part in a moderated Q&A session that should soon be drowned out by the Beige Book. There is nothing new in these pronouncements so far to provide any insight into timing of the next hike, as March odds improve.

US income report: revealed a 0.4% January income rise that beat assumptions after expected boosts in the Q3 and Q4 figures. Yet, we also saw a lean 0.2% consumption rise with a 0.3% “real” drop that undershot estimates after big boosts in Q4 to leave a disappointing report. The U.S. ISM rose to a 30-month high of 57.7 from 56.0 in January and 54.5 in December, as the index continues to climb from the 47.9 expansion-low in December of 2015 toward the 60.0 cycle-high in February of 2011. Yesterday’s ISM report adds to the upside risk for our 210k February nonfarm payroll estimate, though the employment component fell to 54.2 from a 29-month high of 56.1. The ISM-adjusted average of the major producer sentiment surveys to rise to the same 56 cycle-high previously seen in February and March of 2011, versus 54 in January, 53 in December, 52 in November, 51 in October and 50 in 4 of the 5 months through September. A factory sector rebound that is lifting sentiment, consumer confidence and small business optimism in the face of rising oil prices, a reversal in the inventory headwind, and hopes for deregulation and fiscal stimulus in 2017, might be consider as a possible scenario. The economy still faces lingering headwinds from a sluggish world economy and a strong dollar.

Canada: Bank of Canada Remains Attentive to Uncertainties. The Bank of Canada delivered the widely-expected lack of change to the 0.50% rate setting. The recent run of encouraging economic data was downplayed, with material excess capacity highlighted. There was little change from the cautiously constructive outlook in January, which in our view keeps a potential easing on table while maintaining the base case scenario for no change in rates for an extended period. Hence, the Bank maintained a focus on uncertainty to the outlook. while downplaying improvement in CPI and what is shaping up to be firmer growth in Q4 than they had anticipated. The bounce in January CPI was due to temporary factors while challenges still faced by exports apparently temper any optimism that would stem from an overshoot of their Q4 GDP projection of 1.5%. Also, employment gains may be evident, but wages and hours worked still reflect persistent slack in Canada. The announcement was a bit more focused on caution versus optimism than we had anticipated. But Poloz has been very dovish and repeatedly been burned on the emergence of the long-awaited recovery, so an abundance of caution is quite consistent with how the Bank has operated in recent years.

Main Macro Events Today

• GBP Construction PMI – February PMI in Construction expected to be unchanged from 52.2 last time.

• Euro Core CPI – Eurozone HICP inflation is set to reach 2.0% and thus hit the upper limit for price stability with today’s February release, after higher than expected German and Italian numbers this week. The German rate jumped to 2.2% y/y and while base effects from energy prices are the main reason for now, Bundesbank President Weidmann highlighted that inflation projections, should be revised considerably higher, not just for the Eurozone.

• CAD GDP – Canadian GDP is expected to slide to 0.3% after rising 1.0% to 0.4% in January.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 3rd March 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 3rd March 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Stock markets headed south in Asia overnight, after the Trump induced stock market rally started to run out of steam in Europe and the U.S. yesterday. The Topix fell for the first time in three days as the Yen advanced and investors turn cautious after pushing indices to very high levels and the prospect of tighter monetary policy comes back into focus. Electronics companies and banks retreated ahead of Yellen’s speech on the outlook for the economy to executives in Chicago today. In Hong Kong developers were hit by concerns of a March rate hikes. The Dow Jones still managed to close above 21000 yesterday, in Europe FTSE 100 and DAX held the 7300 and 12000 levels, but once again markets are reluctant to push things further at the current junction. Oil prices are slightly higher on the day, but still below USD 53 per barrel. The calendar has German and Eurozone retail sales, as well as the final reading of Italian Q4 GDP, but the focus is on the final round of Eurozone services PMIs as well as the U.K. services PMI.

Fedspeak: Fed governor Powell states: “we are as close to our mandate as we have been in a very long time, with a March hike “on the table” for discussion, with potential for 3 rate hikes this year as he’s indicated in the dots. In a CNBC interview, he doesn’t want to see the “animal spirits” get into the real economy as the outlook reaches a balanced state. He doesn’t see any excess in the credit markets or leverage per se, with solid economic momentum. Global growth risks are lower, with growth and inflation ticking higher, which is supportive of the outlook. Fiscal risks are also clearly upward, though awaiting details and not incorporated into his forecasts. We are very close to our 2% inflation target, which is a symmetric goal (neither above, nor below). Powell notes that shrinking balance sheet will take some time once rates are “well above” zero, done in a very predictable almost automatic way. He wouldn’t comment more specifically as the topic is currently under discussion at the Fed. Overall, he seems to be singing from the same hymn sheet as the others who’ve turned more hawkish of late.

US reports: 19k initial claims plunge to a 44-year low of 223k in the week of President’s Day leaves a super-tight level of claims over the seven weeks since the period of winter holiday volatility ended. Claims are averaging just 234k in February, versus prior averages of 247k in January, 258k in December and 252k in November. The 242k February BLS survey week reading sits at the low end of recent BLS readings of 237k in January, 275k in December, and 233k in November. The last time claims were as tight as yesterday’s figure was the 222k reading in March of 1973, when covered employment was just 56.4 mln, or 41% of the recent 138.9 mln.

Canada: Better than expected Q4 GDP and December GDP was taken in stride, given the dark view of recent upbeat data advanced by the BoC in Wednesday’s announcement. The loonie lost further ground amid widening Canada-U.S. yield spreads and a more than $1 pull-back in the price of crude oil. Canada’s Q4 GDP growth was driven by net exports and consumption. Consumption spending barely slowed in Q4, running at 2.6% after the revised 2.7% pace in Q3. Consumption added 1.9% to Q4 GDP after the 1.1% addition to Q3. But net exports were the engine of GDP growth, making a 5.2% contribution after the 1.2% add in Q3. Exports improved by only 1.3% in Q4 after the 9.4% bounce in Q3, while imports plunged 13.5% after a 4.8% gain. The imports decline was at least partly due to a one-time factor: the one time import of an oil module for an oil project in September left a big drop in October import values.

Japan: Japan’s core CPI grew 0.1% y/y in January, marking the first expansion since the 0.1% gain in December of 2015. The core CPI (which excludes perishables, but not gasoline) bottomed out with -0.5% y/y declines in July, August and September of 2016. Hence, the BoJ’s extraordinary accommodation has had some impact, but underlying inflation is still a long way from the 2% goal. Total CPI grew at a 0.4% y/y rate in January after the 0.3% pace in December. But the Tokyo core CPI saw a 0.3% y/y drop in February, matching the 0.3% y/y decline in January. Total Tokyo CPI fell 0.3% y/y after a 0.1% gain. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate slipped to 3.0% in January from 3.1% in December. Household spending tumbled 1.2% y/y in January after the 0.3% decline in December. USDJPY has slipped to 114.21 from a 114.58 peak late in the North American session.

Main Macro Events Today

• Fed’s Yellen – Fed Chair Yellen speaking at an event before the Executives Club of Chicago.

• Fedspeak – Friday is a busy day for FOMC members, with the dovish voter Evans, Powell and hawkish non-voter Lacker speaking on a panel. Also, Fischer will discuss Fed policy decision-making at the Chicago Booth School’s annual policymaking forum.

• US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI –February service sector producer sentiment is out today to close out the month’s series of reports. It is expected the headline to hold steady at 56.5 from last month. February producer sentiment has been very strong with increases in all the early month measures. This strength should allow the ISM-adjusted average of all releases to climb to a cycle high matching 56 from 54 in January and 53 in December.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 6th March 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 6th March 2017.

FX News Today

Joining the broadening chorus, Fed Chair Yellen confirmed on Friday, “At our meeting later this month, the Committee will evaluate whether employment and inflation are continuing to evolve in line with our expectations, in which case a further adjustment of the federal funds rate would likely be appropriate.” That’s about as close as you’ll get to Fed semaphore for “we are going to hike in March, unless something extraordinary thwarts us.” Of course, all eyes will now be riveted on Friday’s February jobs report, which would have to severely miss to prevent the FOMC from pulling the trigger on the 15th.

United States: The economic calendar gets down to brass tacks with the employment report, released with just a week to go before the March FOMC decision. As Yellen implied, we’re going to get a hike in March unless the data fail to move in line with expectations. A 215k February nonfarm payroll increase is expected to beat the 156k December headline, but to fall short of the 227k January rise, with a 220k private payroll gain. The report faces upside risk from rising producer sentiment and consumer confidence, 44-year lows in initial claims, a surging stock market, and a solid ADP surge. As for data, the rest of the week, January factory goods orders are forecast to rise 1.4% from 1.2% in January (Monday), while inventories may rise 0.2%. Risk is to the upside given stronger durables. The trade deficit is expected to expand in January (Tuesday) to -$49 bln, while consumer credit may increase to $20 bln in January as well. MBA mortgage market data is due (Wednesday) and the February ADP Employment report should post a solid 220k gain for the month, but below the January figure of 246k. Q4 productivity is set to be revised up to 1.5% (Wednesday) from 1.3%, while wholesale sales may bounce 0.8% and inventories sink 0.1%. Import prices may rise a mild 0.1% in February (Thursday) in part due to the firm dollar, though oil prices picked up last month, but export prices may sink 0.2%. Initial jobless claims are forecast to rebound 24k to 247k (Thursday) after marking 44-year lows last week. In addition to the employment report (Friday), the February Treasury budget gap may widen to -$195 bln.

Fedspeak: winds down for the blackout period ahead of the March 15 FOMC, but not before Minneapolis Fed dove Kashkari discusses his favorite topic of “Too Big to Fail” (Monday) before the National Association for Business Economics (NABE).

Canada: There is plenty of economic data on offer this week in Canada, with the trade and jobs reports the highlight of a full calendar. The January trade balance (Tuesday) is expected to improve to C$1.0 bln from C$0.9 bln in December. A 20k gain in employment (Friday) is projected for February after the 48.3k rise in January, while the unemployment rate is seen steady at 6.8%. Housing starts (Wednesday) are anticipated to slow to a still firm 200k growth rate in February from 207.4k in January. Building permit values (Wednesday) are seen falling 1.0% in January after the 6.6% tumble in December. An 82.5% reading is projected for capacity utilization (Thursday) following 81.9% in Q3. Productivity growth is expected to moderate to a 0.3% pace (q/q, sa) following the unsustainable 1.2% surge in Q3. The new home price index (Thursday) is projected to deliver a 0.2% m/m gain in January on the heels of the 0.1% rise in December. IVEY PMI for February is due Tuesday. While top tier economic data is abundant this week, Bank of Canada speakers are absent. The next scheduled appearance is from Deputy Governor Schembri on March 22nd, while we do not hear from Governor Poloz until March 28th.

Europe: After a robust round of Eurozone PMI numbers and especially the uptick in HICP inflation to 2.0%, the focus is on the ECB meeting (Thursday), which will also bring the updated set of staff projections. We don’t expect huge changes to the growth outlook, although better than anticipated PMI and Ifo numbers have lifted the chances of stronger than hoped Q1 GDP. Data releases this week are unlikely to change the outlook dramatically. German manufacturing orders will likely attract the most attention, as it is the only forward looking number in the calendar. Eurozone Q4 GDP, by contrast, is the most backward looking and expected to confirm growth rates of 0.4% q/q and 1.7% y/y, in line with preliminary numbers. The focus will likely be on the breakdown, which will be released for the first time, and should confirm that domestic demand and consumption remain the main drivers of the recovery. German and French production numbers for January are likely to bounce back from the contraction at the end of last year and we are looking for a rebound in German production of 3.0% m/m, after the -3.0% m/m decline in December, while French production is seen up 0.9% m/m.

UK: A bigger decline that had been widely anticipated in the UK’s PMI February surveys has painted a picture of a stagnating economy with businesses facing higher operating costs and slowing consumer demand. This comes with the start of negotiations to leave the EU now just around the corner, which we expect to quickly bring some contentious issues into the limelight (and risk of Scotland’s SNP making another attempt to break from the UK). The UK calendar this week starts with the BRC retail sales report for February (Monday), which will be of interest amid concerns that consumers are tightening their belts, and the Halifax house price report, also for February (Monday). The next data of note will be production figures for January at the tail end of the week (Friday), which expected to show industrial output dipping 0.4% m/m while rising 3.0% y/y.

Japan: The second look at Q4 GDP (Wednesday) is forecast improving to a 1.5% q/q pace from the initial 1.0%. Strong Q4 capex spending supports this view. The January current account surplus (Wednesday) likely narrowed to JPY 500.0 bln from 1,112.2 bln previously. The March MoF business outlook survey (Friday) is seen improving to 9.0 from 7.5 for the large manufacturers.

Australia: Australia’s calendar features the Reserve Bank of Australia’s meeting (Tuesday). No change is expected to the current 1.50% rate setting. Economic data is headlined by January retail sales (Monday), projected to improve 0.2% m/m after the 0.1% dip in December. Housing investment (Friday) is seen dipping 0.5% in January after the 0.4% gain in December. ANZ job ads (Monday) and the Melbourne Institute inflation measures (Monday) are also due.

New Zealand: New Zealand’s calendar has January building permits (Monday), Q4 manufacturing (Wednesday) and retail card spending (Friday). The next meeting of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is on March 23rd.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 7th March 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 7th March 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are mostly higher, Japan underperformed and the Nikkei closed with a -0.18% loss with investors remaining cautious ahead of the Fed policy meeting and as markets price in a March rate hike. U.S. stock futures are narrowly mixed, FTSE 100 futures are moving higher, after European markets headed south yesterday and rising risk aversion saw Bund futures outperforming and Eurozone spreads widening. German manufacturing orders data at the start of the session are likely to continue to underpin Bund futures as the sharp rise in December is expected to be followed by a marked correction in January. The data calendar also has U.K. house price data from Halifax and detailed Q4 Eurozone GDP numbers.

US reports: The U.S. factory goods data undershot estimates thanks to a restrained 0.4% January nondurable rise for shipments and orders despite price gains, with a similarly lean 0.3% nondurable inventory rise after a big December boost. We saw only tiny tweaks in the durables data for orders, shipments, and equipment that still show a transportation-led orders gain with respectable equipment data, but with lean shipments and inventories. A boost in the Q1 GDP growth rate to 2.0% expected, from 1.9% with a $5 bln boost to factory inventories alongside a $2 bln hike for construction. More precisely, U.S. factory orders rose 1.2% in January after a 1.3% bounce in December and a 2.3% drop in November. The 1.8% jump in January durable orders was bumped up to 2.0%. Transportation orders rebounded 6.2% versus -4.3%. But excluding transportation, factory orders were unchanged from the prior 0.9% December gain. Nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft dipped 0.1% from 0.8% previously. Shipments rose 0.2% after the 2.5% surge in December. Nondefense capital goods shipments excluding aircraft slid 0.4% versus a prior 1.7% gain. Inventories edged up 0.2% from 0.3%. The inventory-shipment ratio was steady at 1.31.

Australia: Reserve Bank of Australia held rates steady at 1.50%, matching widespread expectations. The statement by Governor Lowe was cautiously constructive on the outlook for growth and inflation. The outlook continues to be supported by low levels of interest rates, Lowe said. On the exchange rate, he said the depreciation since 2013 has assisted the transition in the economy following the mining investment boom. An appreciating exchange rate, he noted, would complicate that adjustment. Overall, the statement is consistent with an extended period of steady, accommodative policy lasting into 2018.

Main Macro Events Today

• US Trade Balance – January trade data is out today and expected the deficit to jump 10.7% to -$49.0 bln from -$44.3 bln in December. Exports expected to be down 0.2% on the month with imports up 1.9%. The advance trade report had the goods and services deficit expanding to -$69.2 bln from -$64.4 bln in December.

• Canadian IVEY PMI – IVEY PMI for February is anticipated to have a pickup in the seasonally adjusted measure to 58.0 from 57.2.

• Canadian Trade – The January trade balance is expected to improve to C$1.0 bln from C$0.9 bln in December. The C$1.0 bln surplus in November ended a lengthy run of deficits. Crude oil prices were modestly higher in January, but natural gas prices dipped slightly, suggestive of a modest boost overall to energy export values. Exports are seen rising 1.0% m/m in January after the 0.8% gain. Imports are projected to increase 0.8% in January after the 1.0% rise in December. The risk around the trade report projection is elevated, as always. Canada’s economy appears to be on the mend, although the trade outlook remains subject to considerable uncertainty.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 8th March 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 8th March 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Core European bond yields remain under pressure, peripheral Eurozone markets are underperforming and equity markets are holding back as investors remain cautious going into Thursday’s ECB meeting, Friday’s U.S. jobs report ahead of the Fed decision next week. Much weaker than expected German manufacturing orders data on Tuesday have taken some pressure off Draghi to at least remove the reference to the possibility of further rate cuts from the forward guidance. QE remains in place for now and officials will remain adamant that the planned reduction in monthly purchase volumes from next month does not constitute “real tapering”, that is a gradual phasing out of asset purchases. That this will come next year is highly likely and widely expected, although with Eurozone elections and Brexit talks looming, we expect Draghi to keep his insurance policy in place for now and not move to real tapering before December, when the end of the current purchase program draws near. The calendar features Geman production and Swiss CPI data.

US reports: The U.S. trade deficit widened to a 5-year high of $48.5 bln from $44.3 bln in December and a 9-month high of $45.5 in November, with mostly upward revisions for both exports and imports of services that generally narrowed the gaps back through 2016. The deficit was $0.5 bln narrower than indicated by the “advance” trade report with upside surprises in both exports and imports, though we still peg Q1 GDP growth at 1.5% after a Q4 growth boost to 2.0% from 1.9%. The Q4 GDP growth boost should include a $2 bln downward bump for exports and a $1 bln boost for imports, alongside an already-signaled hike of $5 bln for inventories and $2 bln for construction.

Germany: German manufacturing orders were much weaker than expected, with the overall number falling -7.4% m/m in January, more than wiping out the 5.2% m/m rise in the previous month. Bundsbank data showed the three months’ trend rate slowing down to just 0.2% from 4.0% in the three months to December. The numbers contrast sharply with the robust round of confidence numbers for February and cast a shadow over the outlook, as they point to a slowdown in growth in the second quarter. More backing for the arguments of the doves at the ECB council for Thursday, who will want Draghi to confirm the easing bias and the ongoing QE schedule despite likely upward revisions to growth and inflation projections.

Canada: Canada’s Ivey PMI dipped to 55.0 in February on a seasonally adjusted basis from 57.2 in January. The employment index improved to 54.5 from 53.5, prices dropped to 61.1 from 70.1, supplier deliveries declined to 45.9 from 46.6 and inventories were 51.4 from 46.4. The Ivey PMI has been in expansionary territory since June of 2016 after the 49.4 seen in May of last year. Moreover, the six-month moving average improved to 58.0 in February from 57.5 in January and December, consistent with ongoing momentum in the economy. Also, the Ivey PMI improved to 55.1 in February on a not seasonally adjusted basis from 52.3 in January and 49.4 in December, consistent with the usual seasonal pattern and broadly supportive of our outlook for continued momentum in Canada’s economy during Q1. Canada’s trade surplus widened to C$0.807 bln in January, nearly as expected, but December was cut to a C$0.447 bln surplus in December from the C$0.9 bln initially reported. Export values grew 0.5%, driven by motor vehicles and canola oil shipments.

Japan: Japan GDP was revised slightly higher to a 1.2% pace in Q4 (q/q, saar) from the initial 1.0% pace. GDP grew at an identical 1.2% rate in Q3 after the 2.2% gain in Q2 and 1.9% clip in Q1. The revised Q4 growth rate fell short of projections. Consumption growth remained flat in Q4.

Main Macro Events Today

• Canada Housing Starts – Housing Starts expected to slow to a 200k unit rate in February from 207.4k in January. Bank of Canada Governor Poloz has maintained that the October 2016 housing measures from the Ottawa will mitigate some of the risks (associated with housing) going down the road. But he cautioned that these things move slowly. Building permit values are seen falling 1.0% in January after the 6.6% tumble in December.

• US ADP Employment Change – February ADP Employment report should post a solid 184k gain for the month, but below the January figure of 246k.

• UK Annual Budget Release – Spring’s Budget Report and the first of 2017. Tax hikes expected to be announced.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 9th March 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 9th March 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are mostly down, as oil related stocks were under pressure. The front end Nymex future is slightly up on the day, but at USD 50.61 per barrel remains far below recent highs. Japan outperformed and the Nikkei closed with a 0.34% gain, as the Dollar strengthened amid positive signals ahead of tomorrow’s jobs data and the weaker yen underpinned exporters. U.K. and U.S. stock futures are down on the day, after the FTSE 100 already underperformed other European markets yesterday, but continues to hold the 7300 mark. The DAX meanwhile managed marginal gains yesterday, but is still holding below 12000, as markets hold their breath ahead of today’s ECB meeting, amid speculation that Draghi could tweak the forward guidance on rates and remove the implicit easing bias as growth and inflation data continues to rise. Released overnight, the U.K. RICS house price balance remained steady at 24. ECB meeting aside, the calendar still has final non-farm payroll numbers from France, as well as Swiss unemployment and the Bank of France business confidence indicator.

US reports: ADP private payrolls surged 298k in February after rising 261k in January (revised up from 246k). The service sector added 193k jobs, while the goods sector added 106k. As for the more detailed breakdown, strength in services was paced by professional business services, up 66k, with leisure and education up 40k. IT added 25k. For the goods sector, construction added a huge 66k, while manufacturing increased 32k. Mining was up 8k. This is a much better than expected report and adds upside risk to Friday’s BLS numbers. The data should also confirm a Fed rate hike next Wednesday. Furthermore, yesterday oil rallied to $53.80 from $53.45 following the EIA inventory data which showed an 8.2 mln bbl rise in crude stocks. Oil gains following the EIA report were short-lived, with the contract now on fresh one-month lows of $52.14. Prices initially moved higher on the inventory figures, with the smaller than API crude build and larger than forecast product draws giving oil bulls a leg up. It turned out however, that the gains were quickly sold into, on the realization that U.S. crude stocks posted yet another all-time high.

Canada: Canada housing starts improved to 210.2k in February from a revised 208.9k unit rate pace in January (was 207.4k). The pick-up in starts was contrary to expectations for a moderation in February. Single detached starts grew 12.1% to 71.9k units in February while multi urban starts fell 4.7% to 121.2k units. The six-month moving average for total starts picked-up to a 204.7k clip in February from 200.3k in January. The CMHC’s report notes that the uptrend in home construction this winter has been mostly due to increased home construction in Ontario, where single detached home construction is near the pace last seen in July of 2008. Canada building permit values rose 5.4% in January, better than expected, following a revised 4.4% drop in December (was -6.6%).

UK: The UK government announced its mid-year budget update, coordinated with the release of official economic projection updates from the independent Office for Budget Responsibility. The 2017 growth forecast was raised to 2.0% from 1.4%, but in the four-year outlook growth was revised lower. Inflation is seen peaking at 2.4% this year before ebbing slightly to an average rate of 2.3% in 2018, and then to 2.0% in 2019. Borrowing for this year is seen below that previously forecast, though is seen broadly unchanged over the next three years. Among the details are plans to increase spending on the health service and a reduction in the tax-free dividend.

Main Macro Events Today

• ECB Rate Decision – ECB is widely expected to keep policy unchanged and confirm the QE schedule, which promises ongoing asset purchases through to the end of the year, but at a reduced monthly volume of EUR 60 bln from April. Given that much of this is also an insurance policy to prevent a renewed pick up in market volatility amid heightened political risks, Draghi is also likely to stress again that this doesn’t constitute real tapering and that the central bank has not yet set eyes on a phasing out of asset purchases. The focus will be on whether the central bank will take a more neutral stance on rates, however, and remove the reference to the possibility of another rate cut, as suggested by the hawks at the council in light of rising inflation and strong growth numbers.

• US Unemployment Claims – Initial claims data for the week of March 4 is out today and should reveal a headline increase to 235k from 223k last week and 242k in the week prior.

• Canadian NHPI – New Housing Price index expected to remain unchanged at 0.1% for January.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 10th March 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 10th March 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets mostly managed to move higher overnight, let by a nearly 1.5% gain in the Nikkei as the Yen weakened against the Dollar. U.S. futures are also up, as the focus shifts to today’s jobs data and next week’s Fed meeting. Yesterday was all about Draghi an, who managed to introduce subtle changes to signal a very gradual move towards a more neutral stance and not only helped stocks to move higher, but also to bring in Eurozone spreads amid a general rise in long term yields. Today’s calendar has already seen the German trade surplus shrink (see below) industrial production numbers from France and the U.K.. The U.K. also has trade data, but again the focus will be on the US calendar in the afternoon.

German Trade: The surplus narrows, as imports continue to rise. Exports managed to rebound from the slump in December and rose 2.7% m/m, but this was more than counterbalanced by a 3.0% m/m rise in nominal imports, which left the trade surplus at EUR 14.9 bln on a seasonally adjusted basis. The current account surplus dropped even more. The numbers highlight that much of last year’s improvement in trade data was impacted by price developments and the drop in oil prices, while real data actually showed a negative contribution to overall growth from the external sector.

US Data Yesterday revealed a firm set of initial claims and trade price data, though we did see a 20k bounce for claims to 243k after the prior 19k plunge to a 44-year low of 223k in the President’s Day week. For trade prices, we saw big February gains after upward revisions that reflected surprisingly little downward pressure from the dollar’s surge, with strength skewed toward exports as seen through most of 2016. Core export prices rose 0.5%, while core import prices rose 0.3%. The claims bounce still leaves a firm start for March, and we still expect a 225k February nonfarm payroll rise with upside risk from tight claims, firm consumer and small business confidence, and a robust 298k ADP rise. Vehicle sales were flat in February but we expect a bounce in output. For downside risk, we expect a 5k-10k monthly decline in government jobs due to the hiring freeze, versus the 16k average monthly gains through 2016, and we had an east coast storm in the BLS survey week.

ECB: Subtle changes at the central bank yesterday, with Draghi once again trying to keep both hawks and doves happy. The result was a shift in language, that was so subtle that it took Draghi to highlight it during the Q&A session, as QE schedule and easing bias on rates were left in place. This balancing act saw markets taking the hint, but leaving the ECB sufficient room to act and keep the insurance policy amid the multitude of political challenges hitting the Eurozone this year. On balance our central scenario for the ECB going ahead remains the same, with QE going ahead this year and rates remaining unchanged throughout the year. The ECB is maintaining its insurance policy as elections get underway and the Brexit talks start in earnest and it can afford to do so as base effects should see headline inflation rates starting to come off again later in the year.

Main Macro Events Today

• US Non-farm payrolls – The median forecast of economists polled by Reuters is for the Non-Farm Payroll to rise by 195,000, however, there is significant risk to the upside following Wednesdays big rise in the ADP report. Expectations are as high as 285,000 with a number of estimates being raised to 225,000. The Earnings figure needs to recoup the 0.3% level and the unemployment is expected to fall from 4.8% to 4.7%.

• Canadian Employment – It is expected to rise 20k in February after the 48.3k surge in January. Canada posted employment gains from August to October of last year, saw a small decline in November and then revealed strong gains in December and January of this year. Unemployment rate is expected to remain stable at 6.8%.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Stuart Cowell
Senior Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 13th March 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 13th March 2017.

FX News Today

The old notion of the “new normal” has been turned on its head in the months since Brexit and the Trump election. The slow growth, secular stagnation theme has been morphing into one of rising animal spirits and a reflation trade that could eventually manifest into a global cyclical upturn. And thus, the FOMC is readying its third-rate hike, while the ECB is subtlety shifting toward a neutral stance. Meanwhile, the rise of populism and the heightened political uncertainties will remain a major risk to the more optimistic outlook.

United States: In the U.S., the FOMC takes center stage and is universally expected to hike rates another 25 bps to a 0.75% to 1.00% policy band. This would be the third tightening of the cycle. And it appears that the FOMC is ready to begin the normalization process in earnest. Key for the outlook will be the Fed’s dot plot, as well as any discussion regarding the balance sheet. Given the improved data and more hawkish rhetoric, it’s likely the Fed will confirm its three-tightening dot plot from December, and we expect additional 25 bps moves in June and September. There is risk the central tendency forecast shifts to four hikes this year. Along with the FOMC, the data slate is heavy with several important reports. CPI (Wednesday) and retail sales (Wednesday) headline as they are key factors in the policy equation. February CPI is expected to be unchanged after a 0.6% surge in January. The March Empire State (Wednesday) and Philly Fed manufacturing (Thursday) surveys are likely to show a slower pace of expansion than seen in February. The Fed’s February industrial production release (Friday) is expected to show a 0.2% bounce thanks to the solid indications from the nonfarm payroll report. Housing reports are also due too, including the NAHB homebuilder survey for March (Wednesday). It’s dipped in January and February from 69 in December, the highest since 2005. February housing starts (Thursday) are seen bouncing to a 1.255 mln, while consumer sentiment (Friday) should rise further to 97.0 in March after edging up 0.6 points to 96.3 in February.

Canada: Canada’s docket of economic data and events is thin this week. The only top tier report is manufacturing (Friday). The ponderously named National Balance Sheet and Financial Flow Accounts is released Wednesday. The report contains the household debt ratio, which we suspect saw another record high in Q4. February existing home sales (Wednesday) and the February Teranet/National Bank home price index (Tuesday) are also due out.

Europe: Data releases this week mainly focus on final February inflation numbers, but also include the first confidence reading for March in the form of the German ZEW (Tuesday). The investor confidence reading underperformed other sentiment numbers in February and expected to bounce back somewhat this month to 13.2 from 10.4. Against that, Eurozone industrial production numbers for January (Tuesday) will seem too backward looking to change the outlook. Final February inflation data, meanwhile, is not expected to hold major surprises and a confirmation of the French reading (Wednesday), the Spanish (Tuesday), the German HICP (Tuesday) and the Italian HICP (Wednesday), is expected, which is in line with consensus and would leave the overall Eurozone rate (Thursday) at 2.0%. This is in line with the ECB’s upper limit for price stability. But, the uptick is mainly driven by oil prices and base effects, and with core inflation still low at just 0.9% y/y, the data is not sufficient to prompt a radical change in ECB policy.

UK: The calendar features the March BoE Monetary Policy Committee meeting (announcement and minutes due Thursday), which is widely expected to leave the repo rate at 0.25% and QE settings unchanged, both by unanimous vote. Data releases this week are thin on the ground, highlighted by the monthly labour market report (Wednesday), which expected to show the unemployment rate remaining unchanged at the cycle low of 4.8%.

Japan: The BoJ announces its policy intentions on Thursday after its 2-day meeting. No policy changes are expected, keeping short term rate at -0.1%, and targeting a zero yield for 10-year bond. The bank is likely to maintain a wait and see stance to see how the modest recovery pans out. As for data, revised January industrial production is due Wednesday.

Australia: Australia’s calendar is highlighted by the employment report (Thursday), which is expected to reveal a 10.0k gain in February after the 13.7k rise in January. The unemployment rate is projected at 5.7%, matching the 5.7% rate in January. Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor (Financial System) Bullock speaks at the Bloomberg Breakfast (Tuesday).

New Zealand: New Zealand’s calendar has Q4 GDP (Thursday), expected to show a 0.8% gain (q/q, sa) after the 1.1% growth rate in Q3. The current account (Wednesday) is anticipated to narrow to NZ$2.5 bln in Q4 from NZ$4.9 bln in Q3. The next meeting of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is on March 23rd. We expect RBNZ to hold the OCR steady at 1.75%.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.