Daily Market Analysis from Hotforex Broker

HFM

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,240
2
74
Date : 21st December 2021.

Market Update – December 21 – Turnaround Tuesday & Winter Solstice.



Trading Leveraged Products is risky
  • USD (USDIndex 96.50) held onto gains as US stocks fell over 1% again, Yields also dipped. Oil posted 2-week lows before recovering and GOLD could not hold $1800.
  • Risk-off, shaken off so far today as Asian markets rally. Biden’s $1.75tn build back better bill still being resisted by Manchin but signs are more positive. Nikkei +1.79% and European & Futures rise over 1%. OMICRON – still weighs, NZ delays opening borders, UK no new measures now but cannot rule out lockdowns (probably after Christmas) – 73% of all cases in US were Omicron last week, and first death confirmed.
  • Turkish Lira recovered +23% yesterday and another +11% today – Erdogan promised to back/guarantee local savings in LIRA (up to $1.5 billion local USD savings converted to LIRA on Monday night). Some speculators in USDTRY over 15.00 no-doubt burnt but this does not change the fundamentals of the Turkish economy and 20%+ inflation-rate. Move in USDTRY off lows today at 13.60.


  • US Yields 10yr traded down to 1.419% now 1.43% lifted as market sentiment improved and save haven flows were reversed.
  • EquitiesUSA500 -52 (-1.14%) at 4568 Dow & Nasdaq -1.23% – USA500.F trades up at 4593. Nike & Micron beat earnings significantly, Movers; PFE +2.6%, MRNA -6.25%
  • USOil – slumped to $65.88 yesterday bounced to $69.00 now as sentiment lifts
  • Gold – Could not hold the key $1800 handle yesterday & tested 1788 again, now up at 1790.
  • FX marketsEURUSD 1.1275 from a test of 1.1300, USDJPY 113.72, Cable tested down to 1.3173, recovered to 1.3215 after no new restrictions announced.
OvernightRBA Minutes – confirmed worries over Covid-19, Inflation and “Committed to maintaining highly supportive monetary conditions.”

European Open – The March 10-year Bund future is down -33 ticks, underperforming versus Treasuries, which are also in the red. DAX and FTSE 100 are up 1.2%, and a 1.2% rise in the NASDAQ future is leading US markets higher, after a broad rebound across Asian markets. Omicron and the associated comeback of restrictions remain in focus, but the general feeling is that developments will dent, but not derail the recovery.

Today – German GfK Consumer Sentiment, EZ Consumer Confidence (Flash).



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDJPY (+0.31%) Bounced from 76.00 lows yesterday to 76.40 now. MAs now aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram moving higher but still under 0 line since early Friday, RSI 52 & rising, Stochs OB zone. H1 ATR 0.125 Daily ATR 0.714.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFM

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,240
2
74
Date : 28th December 2021.

Market Update – December 28 – Risk-on Sentiment Continues.



  • It was another record setting performance for the USA500. It hit its 69th new high of the year, which itself is the second best on record. Easing in Omicron fears and signs of strong holiday sales helped underpin the USA500‘s 1.38% jump to 4791. All 11 S&P sectors are higher, with gains paced by technology and energy. Travel stocks remain heavy though have recovered from their worst levels early in the session as Omicron concerns have been allayed some.
  • USD (USDIndex 96.04).
  • US Yields 10yr finished at 1.472%, below the 1.50% level since December 9. Treasuries were mixed with the long end outperforming in a flattening trade, while the front end was pressured by supply. A cautious tone could prevail near term to keep a bid in bonds, even as 2022 is expected to see 2, if not 3 quarter point rate hikes.
  • EquitiesNikkei jumped 1.4% after stronger than expected production numbers. The ASX lifted 0.4%. The USA100 surged 1.39% while the USA30 rallied 0.98% just shy of their historic peaks from November.
  • USOil – extended gains to 75.82, after surging more than 2% to their highest in a month a day before.
  • Gold – rose to $1,815.
  • FX markets – Yen lost ground as traders stayed in riskier assets, USDJPY lifted to 114.89, EURUSD 1.1326, Cable trades at 1.3434.
Today – Today’s calendar includes the aforementioned 5-year auction, along with data on home prices with the October S&P/Case Shiller report and the FHFA data. The December Richmond Fed index is also due.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDUSD (+0.46%) Retests 0.6815, sustaining 1-month highs. However sentiment remains neutral as fast MAs have flattened while RSI and MACD signal line & histogram are settled at the neutral zone.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFM

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,240
2
74
Date : 30th December 2021.

Market Update – December 30 – End-of-year trading is not kind to Treasury bulls.




End-of-year trading was not kind to Treasury bulls as unwinding of the month’s Omicron inspired haven purchases were unwound. The break of key technicals and very thin liquidity conditions exacerbated the climb in rates.
  • The USD (USDIndex 96.37) was supported. US Yields sold off after key technical levels were breached and the 7-year auction was poorly subscribed. The 10-year penetrated the 50-day moving average at 1.526% and the 30-year pierced the 100-day moving average at 1.938%, which saw the yields rise to intraday peaks of 1.5548% and 1.9687%. following the auction results. The 2-year yield, meanwhile, was fractionally higher at 0.752%.
  • Equities -Broader indexes advanced to fresh all-time highs. The USA30 was up 0.25% to 36,488 and the USA500’s rose 0.14% to 4,793 – 70th new high of the year. The USA100 lagged with a -0.10% loss. The GER30 future is up 0.1%, the UK100 future down -0.1%.
  • USOil – at 75.80, bouncing within 75-77 area.
  • FX marketsEuro and Sterling dropped back against a largely stronger US Dollar. EURUSD is at 1.1315 and Cable at 1.3473. USDJPY breached 115.20.
Today – Germany is already on holiday again tomorrow, the UK extends the weekend through to Monday and volumes are likely to remain low today, although the calendar still has some interesting releases in Europe. Preliminary inflation data for Spain are due, the Swiss Kof indicator will also be released. US Weekly jobless claims highlight.



Biggest FX Mover @ (10:30 GMT) EURUSD (-0.22%) pullback from 1.1398 highs to 1.1314. Fast MAs pointing downwards, RSI flattened though at 42 Stochastick are in OS area while MACD lines decline.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFM

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,240
2
74
Date : 4th January 2022.

Market Update – January 4 – USD & Tesla shine as Treasuries get hammered.



Treasuries were hammered to kick off 2022 action as bond bears were in full control, making this the worst start to a year since 2009. Sentiment remains positive, as markets continue to buy into the recovery story. Apple breached the $3 trillion market capitalization mark and TESLA shares rallied +13.5% after block buster deliveries. Sarah Raskin rumoured to be FED Vice Chair for Supervision, suggesting a tighter regime.

  • USD (USDIndex 96.30) rallied at US open from 95.50 lows. US stocks hit new all-time highs & Yields lept higher as US Treasuries were slaughtered. USOil dipped under $74.00 before recovering & Gold sank to $1800.
  • US Yields 10 yr rocked up to close at 1.62% and trade at 1.63% now
  • EquitiesUSA500 +30 (+0.26%) at 4766, NASDAQ +1.2%; APPL +2.5%, FB +4.01%, ABNB +3.75%, PFE -4.06%, USA500 FUTS now 4795.
  • USOil – slipped under $74.00 (rumours of 400k b/d production increase for Feb.) before recovering to $75.60 now ahead of OPEC+ meeting today.
  • Gold – spiked down under $1800 from $1831 on open and trades at $1805 now.
  • Bitcoin slipped again, down to 45,600, trades at 46,500 now.
  • FX marketsEURUSD under 1.1300 at 1.1285, USDJPY moves higher, testing 115.80, Cable back under key 1.3500 at 1.3470.
Overnight – Strong Asian Manu.PMI’s (led by China & JPY) suggest initial Omicron impact on Q4 may be limited. German Retail sales beat significantly (0.6% vs -0.2%)

European Open – The March 10-year Bund future is down -14 ticks, underperforming versus US futures, although they are also in the red. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are posting gains of 0.3% and 1.1% respectively, the latter outperforming in catch up trade, as markets returned from the extended holiday weekend. US futures are up 0.2 to 0.3% and it seems overall sentiment remains positive, as markets continue to buy into the recovery story, which is also underpinning a rise in yields.

Today – German Unemployment, UK Manufacturing PMI Final, US ISM Manufacturing PMI, US JOLTS, JMMC/OPEC+ meetings.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDJPY (+0.43%) Formed a base at 82.85 yesterday rallied on risk-on mood to 83.50 MAs aligned higher MACD signal line & histogram higher & above 0 line. RSI 59 & rising, H1 ATR 0.130 Daily ATR 0.76.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFM

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,240
2
74
Date : 11th January 2022.

Market Update – January 11 – Directionless Dollar Ahead of Powell.


dollar
Some of the more intense selling pressure seen so far in 2022 took a break this morning. Indeed, though Wall Street opened with sharp declines, the major indexes rebounded through the afternoon and the USA100 managed a modest 0.05% gain. The USA500 was -0.14% lower at the end of the day, while the USA30 lost -0.45%. Bonds traded mixed, as Treasury yields corrected slightly after the move higher in the wake of stronger than expected data yesterday.

Fed remarks: Little insight with no mention of the policy plans. Powell reiterated the economy is expanding at its fastest pace in many years and the labor market is strong, while facing “persistent supply and demand imbalances” with the resulting jump in inflation taking its toll. That outlook was the underpinning for the shift toward tightening policy sooner than later. He also stressed the Fed will use its tools to support the economy and the labor market.

  • USD (USDIndex 95.82) slips from yesterday’s 96.22 high from temporary yields support.
  • Goldman Sachs expects the Federal Reserve to raise rates four times this year, one more than previously forecast.
  • US Yields 10-yr rose to an almost 2-year high above 1.8% overnight, but provided only muted support for the Greenback.- 1.759% currently.
  • Today, treasuries cheapened further with the front end underperforming as more hawkish Fed bets were made on the heels of Goldman Sachs’ outlook. The advent of Chair Powell’s Senate Banking Committee hearing today has also added to the weakness amid uncertainties whether he would push back against the markets’ views on the FOMC and concomitant selloff. The upcoming $52 bln 3-year auction also weighed.
  • Equities – in the red, with the USA100 leading the way USA100 at 15638. Topix and JPN225 lost -0.4% and -0.9%, the ASX corrected -0.8%, and mainland China bourses are also in the red, while the Hang Seng essentially moved sideways. GER30 and UK100 futures, however, are up 0.3%.
  • USOil – up at 78.40.
  • Gold – north for a 3rd day – at $1808.
  • FX marketsEURUSD at 1.1334, USDJPY at 115.27, Cable steady at 1.3595.
European Open: The March 10-year Bund future is fractionally higher, underperforming versus Treasury futures. In cash markets US bonds have also found a footing after being pressured by stronger than expected data yesterday. The ECB is struggling to assure consumers that they are not blind to the uptick in inflation, although the central bank risks falling behind the curve.

Today – Fed Chair Powell’s testimony headlines today. Along with Powell, there is also Fedspeak from Mester and George (Bullard’s discussion on policy and the economy was postponed). The only data on tap is the NFIB small business optimism index. Wednesday brings the main event, CPI.



Biggest FX Mover @ (09:30 GMT) CADJPY (+0.33%) Rebounded to 91.13 reversing nearly half of this week’s losses. MAs currently flat, MACD signal line & histogram below 0 line. RSI 51, Stochastics started rising.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFM

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,240
2
74
Date : 12th January 2022.

Market Update – January 12 – Not as hawkish as priced in.



Fed Powell, Mester and George, along with a 3-year auction added to the action in the markets. This saw yields pick up, and equities retreat. Commodities also caught a boost and oil touched pre-Omicron highs in Asia.

Powell confirmed the shift to normalization and stressed the Fed will fight inflation aggressively, but also indicated liquidity would not be pulled back anytime soon.

“FOMC would use its tool to ensure price pressures would not become entrenched, and would act aggressively if necessary.”.Fed Chair Powell said inflation could last into mid-2022 , while the Committee has not made any decisions on the timing of raising rates and allowing the balance sheet to shrink. He promised more clarity on that is coming soon
.

  • USD (USDIndex 95.50) – 6-weeks low on less hawkish Powell than expected, while data indicate more room for policy easing in China. –China CPI inflation slowed to 1.5% y/y in December from 2.3% y/y.
  • Treasury yields are richer, with the US Yields 10-yr closing at 1.745%, and though the 2-year was only fractionally lower at 0.895%, it has managed to hold below the 0.90% level since March 2, 2020.
  • Equities – a drop in rates, saw yields up and helped underpin Wall Street where the USA100 outperformed with a 1.4% gain for the day, its best since December 21. The USA500 rallied 0.92%, and the USA30 was up 0.5%. JPN225 rose about 2%. Equities moved higher in Japan and Australia, with tech leading the rise once again.
  • BoJ’s Kuroda: “Japan’s inflation is set to accelerate gradually, and the Japanese economy is picking up as a trend.
  • Boeing and Salesforce.com led the USA30, while Illumina topped the USA500, up 14% after giving better 2022 revenue guidance. The energy sector rallied 3%, while utilities were down 1%.
  • USOil – up at 81.06 & UKOIL at 83.98.
  • Gold -spiked to $1823.
  • BTC steady close to at $40,000 support.
  • FX marketsEURUSD at 1.1360, USDJPY steady at 115.30, Cable at 2-month high at 1.3645. – UK overcoming a wave of COVID-19 cases led by Omicron & priced in a nearly 80% chance of BoE rate hike in February.
European Open: The GER30 future is up 0.3%, the UK100 future 0.6%, as markets remain in full risk on mood ahead of key US inflation data. Fed Chairman Powell yesterday seemed to provide some reassurance by sticking to the script. That will likely bring the German 10-year rate closer to lifting out of negative territory, as the ECB is still trying to reassure consumers that it is still committed to keeping inflation at bay, while at the same time trying to keep spreads in. A difficult balancing act that will get harder in the coming months.

Today – The December CPI headlines today. Results in line with forecasts would leave annual rates at a 7.0% y/y pace for the headline, a fresh 39-year high and besting that set in November at 6.8% y/y, and 5.4% y/y for the core versus 4.9% y/y, and a new 30-year high.



Biggest FX Mover @ (09:30 GMT) USDCAD (-0.10%) Pullback to 1.4268 extending to November’s low area. Fast MAs keep sliding lower, MACD signal line & histogram turned below 0 line. RSI 38 and sloping lower, Stochastics entered OS area.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFM

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,240
2
74
Date : 19th January 2022.

Market Update – January 19 – Stocks tank, Yields higher, Inflation weighs.



Stock markets sank (Nasdaq -2.6% as the VIX pushed higher +5.22%). Financials and Pharma companies led the slide, USD firmer supported by high Yields – the main market driver. US 10-yr 1.85%, German 10-yr to May 2019 highs as Inflation in UK & Germany hits 30-year highs. Oil higher again, Gold continues to gyrate. Pressure on UK PM grows.

  • USD (USDIndex 95.65) holds on to gains.
  • US Yields 10-yr moved higher – closed at 1.865% & trades at 1.883%.
  • Equities – USA500 -85 (-1.84%) 4577 (GS -6.97%, BAC -3.44%, FB -4.0%, SONY -7.0%. Nikkei -0.27% – USA500 FUTS lower again at 4539.
  • USOil – Spiked over $87.00 as very tight supply, Saudi’s retaliation on Sanaa and NK continued firing of missiles continues to unsettle sentiment.
  • Gold – holds at $1812 from a test of $1820 & spike to $1806.
  • Bitcoin tested to $42,400, back to 41,200 now.
  • FX marketsEURUSD back to 1.1336, USDJPY now 114.40 tested 115.00 yesterday, Cable back to 1.3600, from 1.3570 lows yesterday.


Overnight – UK CPI – 2 ticks higher at 5.4% vs 5.2% CORE 3 ticks higher at 4.2%, RPI up to 7.5% from 7.1% & new 30-year highs. German CPI in line at 5.3% and HICP at 5.7%.

European Open
– The 10-year Bund yield has lifted 2.4 bp to 0.002% in early trade with high readings for German and U.K. December CPI adding to pressure. Global equity markets are struggling with the sharp rise in yields and intensifying tightening expectations, leaving DAX and FTSE 100 futures down -0.8% and -0.6% respectively. The Euro Stoxx 50 has lost -0.7% so far and a -0.8% correction in the NASDAQ is leading US futures lower. Pretty much the same picture as yesterday, with markets at risk of running way with tightening concerns, and central banks increasingly under pressure.

Today – Canadian CPI, IEA OMR, US Building Permits, Housing Starts, supply from Germany & the US. Earnings from Bank of America, MS, UnitedHealth. DAVOS continues.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDCAD (+0.35%) Rallied from 3-day decline to 0.8455 to 0.8495 now. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram higher & testing 0 line. RSI 56 & rising, H1 ATR 0.0011 Daily ATR 0.0056.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFM

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,240
2
74
Date : 8th February 2022.

Market Update – February 8 – USD rebounds ahead of US inflation.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky
Treasury yields were mixed inside a narrow range as the market consolidated, coming to grips with the hawkish stance from the FOMC and other core central banks, while they found some support from EGBs. ECB’s Lagarde stressed rate hikes will not begin until after asset purchases are ended. Trading was also slowed as the CPI report looms Thursday. The front end outperformed slightly as shorts covered, paring some of the selling from Friday. Wall Street was mixed and rather directionless, despite earnings. After finding a small bid into the afternoon, the indexes slumped into the close. Oil drops on progress in US-Iran talks.

  • USD (USDIndex 95.61) steady.
  • US Yields 2-year rate slid 2 bps to 1.288% after having surged to test 1.32% on Friday. However, the 10-year was fractionally underwater and rose to 1.945%, a new high since late 2019.
  • EquitiesUSA500 ( -0.37%) 4487, USA100 (-0.58% )recovered to 14605. (Meta shares fell more than 5%, Peloton jumped over 20% on media reports of interest from potential buyers including Amazon, Tyson Foods firmed on upbeat quarterly results, Nvidia rose 1.7% ,Alibaba fell about 6% after it registered an additional 1 billion American depositary shares.) JPN225 and ASX are up 1.1% and 0.1%. GER40 and UK100 futures are up 0.1% and 0.2%.
  • USOil – flattened around $90.00 amid concerns over tight supply.
  • Gold – jumped to $1823 above 20-day SMA. Gold rose 1.2% last week and posted its strongest weekly gain since November. Yields have been ebbing from overnight highs, while the USD is a little weaker, to provide some support to gold. Geopolitical risks are also underpinning.
  • Bitcoin extended to $45,485. – Bitcoin and the Australian Dollar had posted gains as equity markets rallied in Europe.
  • FX marketsEURUSD up to 1.1405, USDJPY up to 115.48 & Cable to 1.3520
Overnight – ASX outperforming, helped by a jump in iron ore prices, which boosted miners. Talk of more companies being added to the list of companies that may need extra permits to buy from US entities weighed on the Hang Seng in particular and the index is currently down -0.99%. WTO lets China impose $645 million tariffs on US.

European Open – The March 10-year Bund future is down 8 ticks, slightly outperforming versus Treasury futures, as yields continue to rise in cash markets. Lagarde failed to push back against speculation of an early end to net asset purchases and swift start to rate hikes yesterday and Eurozone peripherals in particular are likely to continue to struggle.

Today – Today’s calendar is thin and should have no impact on expectations. The December trade report is due. The earnings calendar features reports from Pfizer, BP, S&P, Fiserv, Thomson Reuters, Coinbase, Centene, KKR, Chipotle, DuPont, Sysco, Yum! Brands, Transdigm, Cenovus Energy, Warner Music, FleetCor, Incyte, and FMC.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NDZJPY (+0.46%) Rallied to 76.75 retesting the 20 DMA for a 4th day. MAs aligned however started turning lower, MACD signal line & histogram levelling off but well over 0 line, RSI at 57 in a pullback.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFM

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,240
2
74
Date : 10th February 2022.

Market Update – February 10 – Its Inflation day.



The CPI report is anxiously awaited and the markets are priced for a bearish outcome. Indeed, stocks and bonds have sold off so hard this month that risk is for dip buying after the result. Wall Street posted solid gains again Wednesday as investor sentiment has improved with good earnings reports and expectations for some normalcy as covid mandates are being unwound. Treasuries have rallied as jitters regarding an overly hawkish FOMC have eased. Recent Fedspeak downplaying the likelihood of aggressive Fed action helped soothe investor jitters.

  • USD (USDIndex 95.50).
  • US Yields richened, led by the long end, especially after a stellar 10-year auction. The yield tested 1.93%. The 2-year pared its early rally and was unchanged at 1.344% into the close after sliding to 1.313%.
  • Megacap growth stocks powered up due to a pause in rising interest rates while upbeat earnings reports also encouraged investors to buy.
  • EquitiesUSA100 paced the gains on Wall Street, with a 2.08% surge, with the USA500 up 1.45% as all 11 sectors were in the green. The USA30 was up 0.861%.
  • Reuters: Asian equities in January received the biggest upgrade in their forward 12-month earnings estimates in five months, boosted by higher commodity prices and demand for technology exports in the region. – 55% of the region’s large- and mid-cap Asian companies have beaten the average earnings forecasts by analysts, while 58.1% of the companies topped the estimates in the third quarter.
  • USOil – steady at $88.70.
  • Gold – at $1835.70 – soft dollar and lower bond yields.
  • Bitcoin settled to$43,000 -44,000 area.
  • FX marketsEURUSD narrowing to 1.1420, USDJPY spiked to 115.69 & Cable up to 1.3539 from 1.3525.
European Open – The March 10-year Bund future is down -4 ticks at 165.82, while in cash markets Treasuries have remained supported overnight, although yields have moved up from session lows going into the European morning. Asian stocks have traded narrowly mixed. That also holds for Europe, where yields have jumped sharply since the central bank meetings last week, forcing central bankers to warn against overcorrections and big policy moves, A number of speakers from both BoE and ECB are scheduled to speak today.

Today – As noted, the January CPI features today. Initial jobless claims are also due today. The January Treasury budget is also on tap. The Treasury auctions $23 bln of 30-year bonds, and announces 20-year bonds and 30-year TIPS. For Fedspeak, Barkin is on deck. Today’s earnings calendar features reports from Coca Cola, Pepsico, Astrazeneca, Philip Morris, Duke Energy, Moody’s, Global Payments, DexCom, Republic Services, TELUS, Twitter, VeriSign, PG&E, Martin Marietta, Kellogg, SS&C Technologies, Zillow, and Aegon.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDJPY (+0.28%) The Aussie and Kiwi dollars were trading near multi-week highs as investors turned more bullish on risk assets such as equities. Fast MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram extend northwards and RSI is retesting 70 areas.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFM

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,240
2
74
Date : 15th February 2022.

Market Update – February 15 – Markets Await the Diplomats.



Stock markets ended flat into close, with Ukraine jitters easing a tad. USD & JPY remained bid, Gold has hit an 8-month high and Oil holds at $93.00. 2yr-10yr Yields at their narrowest since Feb 2019 but have cooled overnight. No leaks from closed door FED meeting, Bullard reemphasized his 100bps by July. Asia stocks lower too. Ukraine had no response from Russia although Lavrov & Putin agreed to more diplomacy with the West. Scholz in Moscow today. UK Foreign Sec, Truss “Invasion highly likely but not inevitable”. Iron Ore futures slumped over 10% amid the continued crackdown on prices by China hitting AUD.

  • USD (USDIndex 96.15) stronger USD weaker EUR on unrest on its border and possible energy shortages.
  • US Yields 10-yr closed Friday at 1.996 cooled to 1.97%, 2-yrs remain elevated.
  • Equities – USA500 -16pts (-0.39%) 4401 -(TSLA +1.83%) Musk gave $5.7bln shares to a charity in Nov. US500 FUTS now 4396.
  • USOil – Futures spiked to $93.80, trades at $92.70 now.
  • Gold – Rallied (8-mth highs) to $1879 back to $1878 now.
  • Bitcoin remains in the $45,000 to $42,000 range.
  • FX marketsEURUSD down to 1.1324 USDJPY down to 115.29 & Cable to 1.3540.
Overnight – AUD RBA Mins, no surprises, analysts bring forward rate hikes to possibly August form year end. JPY GDP missed (1.3% vs 1.5% & previous quarter revised lower to -0.9%), GBP Earnings beat at 4.3% vs 3.8%, but inflation impacted real wages -0.8%. Tightening labour market too. – Unemployment steady at 4.1%.

European Open – The 10-year Bund future is up 68 ticks, outperforming versus Treasury futures, which are also slightly higher though. Markets are now increasingly worried that the Fed will act too aggressively on rates and stifle the recovery in the process. ECB’s Lagarde yesterday was eager to keep rate hike speculation at bay and even if the ECB pivots, a rate hike before the last quarter of the year, doesn’t really seem to be on the cards. Ukraine jitters have eased somewhat, but continue to cloud over sentiment and DAX and FTSE 100 futures are down -0.3% and -0.2% respectively.

Today – EZ GDP, German ZEW, US Empire State Manu. PPI Final Demand, German-Russian meeting, Earnings Glencore, Restaurant Brands, ViacomCBS.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDJPY (-0.36%) From 84.00 highs on Thursday to 81.50 yesterday & back to 82.00 now. MAs aligned lower, MACD signal line & histogram remains below 0 line, RSI 43.50, H1 ATR 0.185 Daily ATR 0.878.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFM

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,240
2
74
Date : 22nd February 2022.

Market Update – February 22 – RISK OFF – Stocks Dive, Treasuries Up, Oil Leaps.



Stocks have collapsed as Treasuries rally and a major rally in Oil and Gold as President Putin recognizes the breakaway regions of Ukraine and orders troops into the country. The West prepares more sanctions, with USD and JPY bid. NZD also holds Friday’s bid ahead of RBNZ. Gold rallied to test $1914, Oil rallied up 3.4%. Yields fell to 1.858 from 1.91 from Friday’s close. Asian markets sank (Nikkei -1.7%, Hang Seng worst performer -3.2%). VIX futures trade -5.7%, EuroStoxx FUTS -3.44%.



  • USD up(USDIndex 96.11). USD on bid next resistance 96.30 from 14/2.
  • US Yields 10-yr tanked from 1.932 close Friday to 1.91% now to test 1.90.
  • Equities – USA500 -32 pts (-0.72%) 4348 on Friday. US500 FUTS collapsed (-2.0%) to 4230 earlier, back to 4285 now.
  • USOil – Topped at $94.00, back to under $92.00 now and trades at $91.72.
  • Gold – Holds over psychological $1900 now back to $1908.
  • Bitcoin broke lower to trade at $36,800.
  • FX marketsEURUSD under 1.1300, USDJPY holds below 115.00 to 114.50 earlier and 114.75 now. Cable breaches under 1.3600 and trades at 1.3590.
Overnight – JPY CPI data (0.8% vs 1.1% & 0.5% previously), but all focus was centred on geopolitics.

European Open – The March 10-year Bund future is up 49 ticks, US futures are outperforming as investors head for safety while keeping a close eye on the developing situation in east Ukraine. The standoff between the West and Russia will keep pressure on stock markets, which already sold off yesterday and are set to correct even more today. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are currently down -1.1% and –0.7% respectively.

Today – German Ifo, US Flash PMIs, Speeches from Fed’s Bostic and BoE’s Ramsden, Earnings HSBC (beta), Home Depot.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDCHF (+0.27%) Rallied from lows of 0.6120 earlier, popped to 0.6155 and trades at 0.6140 now. MAs now aligned lower, MACD signal line & histogram significantly below 0 line, RSI 43.25 & falling, OB zone, H1 ATR 0.00010, Daily ATR 0.0048.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFM

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,240
2
74
Date : 24th February 2022.

Market Update – February 24 – Stocks plummet, oil up as Russia attacks Ukraine.



Risk aversion has hit markets hard amid reports of a full blown attack by Russia on Ukraine, which has also lifted Brent clearly above the $100 per barrel mark. Ukraine declared a 30-day state of emergency, called up reservists and urged its citizens to leave Russia. More cyber attacks on government websites and banks and disinformation campaigns were seen as a prelude to war. Also, US officials said diplomacy with Russia was dead for now. That added to the gloom. Russia suspended movement of commercial vessels in Azov Sea. Von Der Leyen – EU Planning `Massive Sanctions’ on Russia.

Treasuries rallied and stock markets across Asia sold off as the world watches Ukraine. The US Treasury rate is down -12.3 bp at 1.868%, while the Nikkei has lost -1.8%, the ASX nearly 3% and Hang Seng and CSI 300 -3.1% and -2.3% respectively. Brent is trading at $102.19, the front end WTI future at $97.07 per barrel. Gold below $1949. USDRUB at 80.99.

  • USD spikes (USDIndex 96.75)
  • US Yields 10-year yield down to 1.868%.
  • EquitiesGER30 and UK100 futures are down more than 3.5% and 2% respectively, while USA500 was down 2.3% and USA100 fell 2.8%, putting the USDIndex on track toward confirming it is in a bear market.
  • Reuters: “Closing down at least 20% from its Nov. 19 record high close of 16,057.437 points would confirm the Nasdaq has been in a bear market, according to a widely used definition. That would mark its first bear market since 2020, when the coronavirus outbreak crushed global financial markets.”
  • USOil – spiked to $96.46, & UKOIL passed $100 a barrel for the first time since 2014, adding to inflation worries.
  • Gold – rallied over 2% as haven demand ebbed – below $1900.
  • Bitcoin below $35,000 as, sell-off spread to cryptocurrency markets as well.
  • FX markets Yen benefited, while the Euro and to a lesser extent Sterling struggled. EURUSD at 1.1245, USDJPY drifted to 114.39, Cable breached 1.3485.
European Open – The March 10-year Bund future has gained 182 ticks, outperforming versus US futures, which are up 119 ticks, while in cash markets the US Treasury yield has lifted off overnight lows, but is still down -10.9 bp on the day at 1.882%. Europe in particular is seen as vulnerable to the escalation of the situation because it could also potentially affect energy supplies, although a German economic institute yesterday suggested Germany could get through the winter even if Russia totally cuts off gas supplies. Meanwhile more sanctions on Russia’s economy are underway and for now the situation remains fluid, which will keep markets in defensive mode and heading for safety.

Today – Today’s data calendar includes US GDP, Jobless claims, PCE and speeches from ECB members and Fed Members.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) USDRUB (+6.42%) Spiked to 80.99 high. MAs now aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram significantly above 0 line, RSI 72.88 & rising. H1 ATR 0.54430, Daily ATR 1.32211.
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


[url deleted]

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:[/b] This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 
Last edited by a moderator:

HFM

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,240
2
74
Date : 2nd March 2022.

Market Update – March 2 – Risk-Off Returns.



Risk Off mood returned as stock markets dived and safe havens from the USD to US Treasuries rallied. Oil & GOLD markets surged, Brent hit $110/barrel & Gold hit $1950/ounce. More Western companies (Apple, Ford & Boeing,) pull investments from Russia & US banned Russian airlines from its airspace. However, Russian Oil, Gas & Uranium exports all remain open. Asian markets moved lower (Nikkei -1.3%). Biden SOU speech warns we are coming fro your ill-gotten gains” and off-script says that Putin “has no idea what’s coming”

Overnight AUD GDP missed (3.4% vs 3.5%), JPY Capital Spending was higher and UK House Price Inflation jumped to 1.7% form 0.6%.

  • USD (USDIndex 97.60). Rallied through 97.00 most of yesterday. 97.75 next resistance.
  • US Yields 10-yr lower again closed at 1.73, 3 ticks lower to 1.707% now.
  • Equities – USA500 -67pts (-1.55%) 4306. US500 FUTS down at 4288 now.
  • USOil – Rallied from support at $94.00, yesterday, up to $107.55 now.
  • Gold – Rallied from $1905 now, trades at $1948.
  • Bitcoin rallied over key 40 & 42K levels to trade at $43,800.
  • FX marketsEURUSD back under 1.1100, USDJPY holds 115.15 and Cable down to 1.3280 now.
European Open – The March 10-year Bund future is up 36 ticks at 170.66, while U.S. futures are slightly lower. , although in cash markets the U.S. 10-year rate is down -2.0 bp at 1.707%. Investors are pricing out excessive rate hike bets and in the Eurozone the 10-year Bund yield closed at -0.80% yesterday, with negative rates not expected to go away any time soon. For today, investors are likely to remain extremely nervous, although the -0.7% decline in the DAX future looks modest compared to yesterday’s correction and the FTSE 100 future is actually up 0.1%.

Today
– German Unemployment, EZ CPI, US ADP, BoC Policy Announcement, OPEC+, Ukraine-Russia Meeting (Time TBC), Speeches from Fed’s Powell, Bullard & Evans, ECB’s Lane, Schnabel, de Guindos & Nagel.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) GBPCAD (-0.36%) 6-day collapse from 1.7345 continues down to 1.6915 now. MAs aligned lower, MACD signal line & histogram below 0 line, RSI 30 & falling, OB zone, H1 ATR 0.139, Daily ATR 0.9450.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFM

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,240
2
74
Date : 16th March 2022.

Market Update – March 16 – FOMC Rate Hike Day.



There was a bounce in US Equities following a collapse in the Oil price to under $100 as Zelenskiy suggests Ukraine will not seek NATO membership & talks with Russia are more “realistic”. Putin’s shelling and grind forward continues. US warns-off any sanction busting Chinese move, more sanctions from the West on Russian property, goods and people, Russia sanctions Biden & Clinton as it prepares for a massive default. Big rally in China shares following Covid infection spike collapse on Monday and a return of risk appetite.

  • USD (USDIndex 98.80). Struggling to hold 99.00 so far this week, and last weeks 99.40 high.
  • US Yields 10-yr up to 2.16% on close – up to 2.18% now.
  • Equities – USA500 +89.34 (+2.14%) 4262. US500 FUTS higher at 4287 now. Airlines rallied over +9%, Exxon & Chevron lost -5.0% as oil prices collapsed.
  • USOil – Tanked from $105.00 highs on Monday to $92.70 yesterday. $97.40 now.
  • Gold – Down again to $1906, trades at $1915 now.
  • Bitcoin tested new March lows at $37,160 yesterday, trades at $38,600 now.
  • FX marketsEURUSD back to 1.0960, USDJPY holds over 118.00 & multiple year highs at 118.40 and Cable tested to the key 1.3000 yesterday, back to 1.3050 now.
European Open – The June 10-year Bund future is down 82 ticks, underperforming versus US futures. Yields corrected yesterday amid a sharp correction in oil prices and as demand concerns tempered supply disruptions. With the FOMC announcement coming into view, bonds are under pressure again, while DAX and FTSE 100 futures are up 2% and 1.3% respectively. China vowed to support markets and the economy, which helped to revive risk appetite. Dollar and Yen retreated as safe-haven demand faded and oil prices stabilized after dropping sharply in recent sessions.

Today – US Retail Sales, Export/Import Prices & Canadian CPI, FOMC Policy Announcement & Powell Press Conference. Also Weekly Oil Inventories & ECB’s Elderson & Panetta



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDJPY (+0.43%) Rallied from 84.60 lows yesterday to over 85.50 now. Friday’s high was 85.88. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram hold over 0 line, RSI 66 & rising, H1 ATR 0.1300, Daily ATR 0.9300.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


[url deleted]
Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:[/b] This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 
Last edited by a moderator:

HFM

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,240
2
74
Date : 23rd March 2022.

Market Update – March 23 – “Inflation leads”.



European bond markets have sold off today following, Bund future is down -15 ticks, US futures are also lower, with yields extending the March spike across the globe. Curves shifted higher pretty much across the board, but with the short end underperforming slightly amid lingering stagflation concerns. UK’s inflation today hit 6.2% y/y (30-year highs) in February. The RPI – still an important measure for wage negotiations – stood at 8.3% y/y in February and coupled with an increasingly tight labour market the risk of second round inflation effects clearly are rising, as is the pressure on the government to do something to ease the jump in the cost of living.

Ukraine developments aside, fiscal responses to the jump in energy prices also are in focus this week, as governments discuss ways to cushion the impact and the UK budget is set to be unveiled today.

Companies are not only facing a sharp rise in energy costs, but also supply chain disruptions as the Ukraine war puts a stop to deliveries of intermediate goods that have disrupted German car production in particular. At the same time, China’s lockdown in the tech-hub of Shenzen threatens to lead to ongoing delays in long awaited deliveries.

  • USD is ranging(USDIndex 98.50).
  • 10-year Treasury has lifted 1.3 bp to 2.395% overnight.
  • Equities – Stock markets remained supported across Asia, and GER40 and UK100 futures are posting gains of 0.8% and 0.7% respectively, with US futures also higher, but under performing. Wall Street continued to see the glass half full and rallied, led by the USA100 1.95% pop, with the USA500 up 1.13% and the USA30 0.74% higher. Nikkei has rallied another 3%.
  • USOil – firm above the $105 per barrel mark and Ukraine developments remain in focus, although stock markets still seem back in demand.
  • Gold – remains under pressure at $1919.
  • Bitcoin pullback to the $41,700.
  • FX marketsEURUSD steady at 1.1020, USDJPY extends to 121.40 and Cable crossed 20-DMA, currently at 1.3260.
Today – Chancellor Sunak will present his spring budget today amid mounting pressure that he ditches the planned rise in national insurance contributions.Looking ahead PMI reports (Thursday) in particular will be in focus in the light of Ukraine tensions and the pick up in energy prices.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDUSD (+0.23%) Rallied to 0.7476. Fast MAs flattened along with RSI (59) while MACD histogram turn below signal line, implying near term pullback/consolidation. H1 ATR 0.0012, Daily ATR 0.0084.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFM

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,240
2
74
Date : 30th March 2022.

Market Update – March 30 – USD Dips, Stocks Rally, Yen Recovers.



USD & Yields dipped and Stocks & Euro rallied (NASDAQ 1.84%) following Russia-Ukraine negotiations. US data (Case-Schiller Housing Index, JOLTS & Consumer Confidence) all stronger than expected adding to high inflation and tight jobs market scenario. Yen recovered on chatter of BOJ intervention, and Oil & Gold dipped before recovering. The yield curve extended it’s inversion as 10-yr yields dipped under 2.0% before lifting. Asian markets followed US higher (Nikkei & ASX +1.0%, Shanghai 1.51%).



Overnight JPY Retail Sales missed (-0.8%% vs -0.3% & 1.1%) German regional CPI coming in hotter than expected (i.e. North Rhine Westphalia March CPI +7.6% vs +5.3%).

  • USD (USDIndex 98.16). Dipped further to 98.00 zone before recovering.
  • US Yields 10-yr closed at 2.40% and under 2.0% overnight, now back to 2.36%
  • EquitiesUSA500 +56.01 (+1.23%) 4631. US500 FUTS 4572 now. APPLE rose for an 11th consecutive day (+1.91%), HOOD up over +24% following AMC rally (+45%) the day before and GME dropped -5.11% 45% as the meme stocks raised their heads again.
  • USOil – Fell again (over 1.0%) to $98.65 yesterday, but has recovered to $107.00.
  • Gold – slipped to $1890 yesterday from Friday’s close at $1955. Back to $1925 now.
  • Bitcoin holds onto gains over 45K to top at 48.1K, yesterday, back to 47.4k now.
  • FX marketsEURUSD back to test 1.1136 now after 1.0950 test Monday, USDJPY over 125.00 & new 7-yr highs Monday back to 122.00 now as JP Government signals worries over weak Yen. Cable back to 1.3120 now.
European Open – The June 10-year Bund future is up 43 ticks, US futures are also higher, DAX and FTSE 100 futures are down -0.1% and up 0.1% respectively, as the initial euphoria over the positive headlines on the progress of Russia-Ukraine peace talks has faded. It still seems a long way to a final agreement and oil prices have backed up from lows under $100 seen in the wake of the initial headlines on the talks yesterday. Meanwhile concern that aggressive central bank action will sap the recovery is lingering. The 2-10 year part of the U.S. Treasury curve inverted yesterday for the first time since 2019, but while the 2-year has dropped back again since, 3 and 5 year rates are still holding above the 10 year. ECB chief economist Lane was out yesterday repeating that a rate hike in Q4 is not cast in stone and that rate moves will be data dependent.

Today – German CPI Prelim, US ADP & GDP (Final/Q4), Speeches from Fed’s Barkin, Bostic & George, ECB’s Lagarde, BoE’s Broadbent



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) USDJPY (-0.76%) Fear of BOJ intervention lifted YEN pairs. Next support 121.00 MAs turned lower, MACD signal line & histogram now below 0 line and cooling, RSI 36, H1 ATR 0.310, Daily ATR 1.31.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFM

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,240
2
74
Date : 12th April 2022.

Market Update – April 12 – Yields & USD Drive On, Stocks, JPY & EUR Lower.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky
Yields remain bid, supporting USD as Stocks sink. JPY & EUR remain weak. Oil recovers, Gold holds gains. –

  • Stocks tanked (NASDAQ worst again -2.18%) Weak in Asia (Nikkei -1.72%) & UK & European FUTS. lower (0.2 to 0.6%).
  • Yields rally as curve steepens – US 10-yr now at 2.824%.
  • EUR fell again after minor rally following French Election result. USD bid elsewhere.
  • USD bid especially vs. weaker JPY (over 125.50 ), AUD, CAD & NZD.
  • Oil recovered from key support, up over $4/barrel as Shanghai eases some lockdowns.
Biden told Modi that buying Russian oil is not in India’s “interest” & will help. Macron & Le Pen go on Election Blitz, Morrisson kicks off Australian Election campaign. Austrian PM meets Putin for 90 mins. New populist PM in Pakistan raises the min. wage. Zelenskiy says tens of thousands have died in Mariupol.

Overnight JPY PPI inflation beats – 9.5% vs. 9.2% & 9.7% previously. In line UK Wages & Unemployment with Claims lower. AUD big boost for Business Confidence (16 vs 13) and German HICP at 7.6%, levels last seen in the early 1980s.

  • USDIndex rallied to test new high 100.17 , trades at 100.12 now.
  • US Yields 10-yr closed higher again at 2.78, up again now to 2.824%.
  • EquitiesUSA500 -75.75 (-1.69%) at 4412. – US500 FUTS 4393. Technology stocks & Consumer Discretionary led decline, TSLA -4.85%, NVDA -5.2% AT&T +7.46%
  • USOil – Trades at $97.30 following a dip to $93.00, Shanghai eases some lockdowns.
  • Gold – gyrated from $1969 to $1940, yesterday , back to $1958 now.
  • Bitcoin continued to decline from key 45k to trade at 39.88k now.
  • FX marketsEURUSD back to test 1.0860 now from 1.0935 yesterday. USDJPY breaks key 125.50 to trade at 125.75 and Cable sinks back to test 1.3010 as USD bid continues.
European Open – The German 10-year Bund yield is up 1.5 bp at 0.82%, the 10-year Gilt rate has lifted 1.7 bp at1.86% in opening trade, alongside a 3.3 bp rise in the U.S. Treasury yield. Eurozone spreads, which narrowed yesterday, are mostly wider this morning, especially at the short end, and the US curve has flattened slightly, as the short end underperforms ahead of key US inflation data. Markets are nervous that a higher than expected figure could prompt the Fed to head for an even more aggressive tightening cycle than currently expected and in Europe, the high German inflation reading is putting pressure on the ECB ahead of Thursday’s meeting.

Today – US CPI, (1.2% m/m 8.4% y/y) – but watch the CORE figures for any sign of actual weakness. Speeches from Fed’s Barkin & Brainard.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDCHF (+0.47%) Recovering from 4-day decline to below 0.6900 at 0.6893 earlier to 0.6935 now. Next resistance 0.6950 & 0.6970. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram moving higher but below 0, RSI 56.50 & rising, H1 ATR 0.00105, Daily ATR 0.00685.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFM

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,240
2
74
Date : 15th April 2022.

Market Update – April 15 – Stocks Sink, Yields Rally, EUR & JPY Pressured.



USD & Yields rallied significantly, and Stocks sank into long Easter weekend. EURUSD tanked under 1.0800 after ECB confirmed QE is set to end in Q3, but Lagarde was cagey on the actual timing and on the prospect of rate hikes. USDJPY hit a new 20-yr high over 126.50. US Claims missed (185k vs 172K), but remain historically low. Retail Sales were better (+0.5% headline, +1.1% ex-autos & big net upward revisions). UoM Consumer Sentiment surprised to the upside (65.7 vs 59.1). Trade prices beat – record-high 4.5% for exports & 11-yr high of 2.6% for imports. All 4-big banks beat earnings expectations but profits fell and shares varied from Citi +1.55% to Wells Fargo -4.51%. Musk moved to buy Twitter, markets not convinced, but he has a “Plan B” if it fails apparently.

  • Stocks lower (NASDAQ +2.14%) Asia markets weaker too (Nikkei -0.31%) with UK & Europe closed today & Monday.
  • Yields moved significantly higher, 10-yr moved form 2.69% to close at 2.82%
  • USDIndex rallied from lows at 99.50 to highs at 100.75 & trades 100.26 now.
  • EquitiesUSA500 -54 (-1.21%) at 4392. – US500 FUTS closed at 4388. TWTR -1.68% ( +13% pre-market when news broke) TSLA -3.66%, APPL -3.00% NVDA -4.26%, AMD -4.79%.
  • Oil & Gold continued to recover and hold over $105 & $1970 respectively.
  • Bitcoin sank to 39k zone again from over 41k, trades at 40k now.
  • FX marketsEURUSD has recovered 1.0800 from 1.0757 lows yesterday. USDJPY trades at new 20-yr highs at 125.60 and Cable tumbled a whole big number to 1.3050 from 1.3150 yesterday.
Overnight Mester (hawk) Job market is “very tight” & inflation is “very elevated”. Williams (centratist) a 50 bp rate increase is a “very reasonable option,” PBOC did not cut interest rates as had been broadly expected.

Today – French CPI in-line at +1.4% m/m. Empire State Manu. Index.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) USDJPY (+0.65%) Continues to rally posting new 20-yr highs over 126.60. Next resistance 126.75 & 127.00. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram moving higher, RSI 69 & rising, H1 ATR 0.151, Daily ATR 1.71.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provi ded is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFM

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,240
2
74
Date : 21st April 2022.

Market Update – April 21 – Yields & USD Cool, NFLX & TSLA grab the headlines.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky
USD continued to unwind, Yields dipped on profit taking and moved lower, Stocks very mixed; worst was NASDAQ -1.22%, NFLX -35%, FB -7.7%, IBM +7.10% and TSLA 4.96% (but recovered all of that after hours). Asian Markets also mixed (Nikkei +1.24%, Shanghai -1.77%). Oil & Gold tested key support areas before recovering. Fed officials Daly & Evans talk 50 bp hike necessary in May.

The West is preparing a new military aid package for Ukraine. Ukraine calls for talks on Mariupol withdrawal, Russia tests new ICBM in show of strength says Mariupol will fall on Thursday. Macron & Le-Pen TV face to face – no clear winner but Macron came out better. World faces hunger ‘catastrophe’ as food prices could rise by up to 37% from invasion. Xi, Modi & Serbia restate opposition to Russian sanctions. Johnson in India, calls dealing with Putin like dealing with a “crocodile”.

  • USDIndex spikes lower to 100.20 from a test of 101.00 yesterday as USD & Yields cool.
  • EquitiesUSA500 -2.76 (-0.06%) at 4459. – Holds 4400. US500FUTS tick higher at 4470. NFLX wipe out (down –67.7% from Nov. highs as Pandemic stay at home winners suffer.) Ackman’s Pershing Square fund sold entire stake losing $430m from January $1.1 bln investment. TSLA significantly beat EPS & Revenue, profit up $3.3bln, deliveries up 68% at 310K, & supply chains not an apparent problem. MUSK pockets $23bln on results.
  • Yields moved significantly lower following 10-yr closed at 2.84% from the attempt at 3% earlier in the week. Trades at 2.87% now
  • Oil & Gold both had a volatile session pressured lower. USOil tested under $100.00 and trades at $103.40 now, having tumbled from $109.40 this week. Gold fell to test $1940 zone and trades at $1950 now, having rejected $2000 this week.
  • Bitcoin continued to recover from sub 38.5k on Monday to over 41.6k now.
  • FX marketsEURUSD has recovered 1.0850 and now tests 1.0900 zone. USDJPY cooled from decade highs to trade at 128.00 and Cable recovered from 1.3000 lows to 1.3075 now.
Overnight NZD – surprise miss for CPI (1.8% vs 2.0% & 1.4%) PBOC reduced Yuan to November lows after holding off Intertest rate changes.

Today EZ CPI (Final), US Weekly Claims & Philadelphia Fed, EZ Consumer Confidence (Flash), Speeches from Fed’s Powell, ECB’s Lagarde, BoE’s Bailey & Mann. Earnings from Meggitt, Nestle (in-line), American Airlines, AT&T and Phillip Morris.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) EURNZD (+0.67%) Rallied from lows under 1.5930 yesterday to 1.6055 highs today. Next resistance 1.6100. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram moving higher, RSI 64 & rising, H1 ATR 0.0031, Daily ATR 0.01571.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFM

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,240
2
74
Date : 12th May 2022.

Market Update – May 12 – Tech Trounced as Inflation Possibly Peaks.



USD rallies to new highs following much volatility after US CPI data for April was lower than March but higher than expected, rekindling concern that aggressive central bank action will weigh on growth. Stocks sharply into the red, Yields spiked sharply higher as talk of Treasury rout also cools with 10-yr back under 3.00%. Oil jumped after Russia sanctioned 31 companies & on recession fears. Gold slightly up, but holds below $1860. Bitcoin tumbled to new 16-month low. UK economy shrinks in March, grows 0.8% in Q1. Nomura estimated this week that 41 Chinese cities are in full or partial lockdowns, making up 30% of the country’s GDP. Reuters: “Property developer Sunac China missed a bond interest payment and will miss more as China’s real estate sector remains in the grip of a credit crunch.” New Zealand inflation survey steady.

  • USDIndex spiked to 104.20 & holds its bid trading at 104 now.
  • EquitiesUSA500 slid below the 4000 level before bouncing back, into the green with the USA30. But all of the indexes crashed into the close, paced by the USA100’s -3.18% plunge. Nikkei dropped 1.8%, the ASX also -1.8%.
  • Yields had jumped to 2.839% and 3.07%, respectively, in the immediate aftermath of the data. 10-year rate closed 6.5 bps lower at 2.920%, with the 2-year up 3 bps to 2.64%.
  • Oil breached $106.23 before reversing to $103.46 (PP of the day).
  • Bitcoin fire-sale of risky assets as rate hikes gather steam, fell 7% to $26,673.
  • FX marketsEURUSD down to 1.0489, USDJPY drifted further on EU open to 129.25, & Cable retests 1.2210. AUD & NZD at 2 year lows.
Today – US PPI & Initial Claims, Speeches from BOC Gravelle.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) ETHUSD (-12.47%) Down to June 2021 low, at 1787. MAs aligning lower, MACD signal line & histogram extend lower, RSI 27 OS, H1 ATR 90.59, Daily ATR 236.65.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.