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HFM

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,277
2
74
Date : 15th March 2022.

Market Update – March 15.



Markets are pricing in aggressive Fed moves and while the Treasury rate managed to correct slightly from yesterday’s highs, rates across Asia moved higher, with Japan’s up 1.6 bp and China’s 3.9 bp, while Australia’s was up 6.5 bp.. Stock markets meanwhile were mostly lower after a largely weaker close on Wall Street. Bond markets were under pressure across the Asia Pacific region with inflation risks and the Fed outlook in focus. China’s PBOC failed to cut the MLF interest rate as many had expected and the RBA minutes also flagged heightened uncertainty on the inflation outlook, even as the bank vowed to remain patient on rates for now. Growth data out of China may have been stronger than anticipated, but the country’s Covid policy, which has now shut down the important tech hub of Shenzhen, has investors spooked.

  • USD (USDIndex under the 99 mark).
  • US Yields US 10-year rate has corrected -1.2 bp to 2.12%.
  • EquitiesHang Seng and CSI 300 lost a further -5.7% and -4.2% respectively. The ASX was down -0.7% at the close. The USA100 slumped -2.04%, with the USA500 falling -0.74%, and the USA30 unchanged.
  • USOil – shed to $95.13 as ceasefire talks between Russia and Ukraine eased fears of further supply disruptions and surging COVID-19 cases in China fuelled concerns about slower demand.
  • Gold – lower at $1929 on higher yields ahead of Fed meeting.
  • FX marketsUSDJPY continues to rise and is now at 118.35. AUD and NZD underperformed. EURUSD retests 1.1020, GBPUSD holds below 1.3050.
European Open: The June 10-year Bund future is up 11 ticks, Treasury futures are also finding buyers. Some consolidation then after the sharp sell off in EGBs yesterday, with safe haven flows picking up again, and GER30 and FTSE 100 futures posting losses of -0.8% and -0.94% respectively. Concern that overly aggressive central bank moves could stifle growth has picked up again and hopes of a quick breakthrough in Ukraine-Russian peace talks were also disappointed yesterday. There was some positive noise on talks between the US and China, but at the same time there are some suggestions China is indeed mulling economic and military assistance to Russia.

Today
– For data German ZEW and US February PPI are due.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) USOIL (-5.82%) Dipped to 95.13. MAs pointing down, MACD signal line & histogram extend below 0, RSI 30 & falling, all implying negative bias.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFM

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,277
2
74
Date : 17th March 2022.

Market Update – March 17 – Hawkish & Faster Moving FED.



The FOMC raised rates as expected by 25bps AND also announced a further six hikes in 2022 and four in 2023 (which was not necessarily expected). Chair Powell’s press conference soothed the initial hawkish reaction. US stocks leapt higher (NASDAQ +3.77%) USD cooled and Yields moved up. Canada Inflation was hotter than expected, US Retail Sales softer and NZD GDP missed significantly. Overnight AUD Jobs & CHF trade balance both beat significantly. Asian stocks rallied (Nikkei +3%) led by China’s continued bounce back. Biden called Putin a “war criminal”, Russia & Ukraine still talking, China & Israel tout mediator credentials.

BoE Preview: Recent comments suggest that the central bank remains on course to lift the Bank Rate by another 25 bp to 0.75%. The latest BoE survey flagged upside surprises on wage growth and with energy bills going through the roof second round effects from the inflation overshoot are already materialising. Against that background, this is unlikely to be the latest rate hike – at least in the central scenario. Like the ECB, the BoE will have to keep some degree of flexibility on policy options as stagflation risks are mounting, but with the Fed flagging a series of rate hikes this year, and even the ECB on course to normalise policy, the BoE has more cover to continue to tighten policy.

  • USD (USDIndex 98.28). Tested 99.00 briefly on FED down after Powell.
  • US Yields 10-yr up to 2.188% on close – down to 2.15% now.
  • Equities – USA500 +95.41 (+2.24%) 4357. US500 FUTS flat at 4347 now. Tech rallied FB +6%, NFLX & TSLA +4.78%, Starbucks + 5.16%.
  • USOil – Found support at $93.00 yesterday. $96.40 now.
  • Gold – Down to test $1900 yesterday, trades at $1934 now.
  • Bitcoin tested over $41,000 yesterday, trades at $40,600 now.
  • FX marketsEURUSD back to 1.1035, USDJPY holds over 118.00 & 5-year highs at 118.75 and Cable tested to the key 1.3000 yesterday, back to 1.3050 now.
European Open – The June 10-year Bund future is up 26 ticks, U.S. futures are also backing up from yesterday’s lows. Yields have started to move up from overnight lows, but for now it seems bonds are set for a positive start, despite the Fed decision yesterday. Still, markets were pretty much prepared and took solace in the Fed’s apparent confidence that the economy can withstand the withdrawal of support. Coupled with China’s promise to support markets and the economy that is bolstering stock markets confidence, with DAX and FTSE 100 futures up 0.4% and 0.2% at the moment. There doesn’t seem to be progress in Russia-Ukraine talks though, which will likely keep a lid on indexes, that already jumped higher yesterday. Investors may also be cautious ahead of today’s BoE announcement.

Today – EZ CPI, US Weekly Claims, Ind. Prod., Japanese CPI, BoE & CBRT Policy Announcements, Speeches from ECB’s Lagarde, Lane & Schnabel.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDCHF (+0.43%) Rally continues big move yesterday to from .0.6730 lows Tuesday to over 0.6885 now. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram hold over 0 line, RSI 69 & rising, H1 ATR 0.00162, Daily ATR 0.0071.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFM

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,277
2
74
Date : 18th March 2022.

Market Update – March 18 – BOE move, BOJ stay put – Stocks, Yields & Oil bounce.



The BOE raised rates as expected by 25 bps to 0.75% but were less clear about next steps, strong US data (Claims, Housing & Phily Fed Index) helped US stocks (+1.25) to close higher (best 3-day gain since 2020) again as the USD cooled and Yields & Oil rallied (no immediate breakthrough in ceasefire talks). Overnight No change from BOJ but JPY Inflation finally perking up. Asian stocks positive (Nikkei +0.65%). Japan & Australia added sanctions, Biden to call Xi, Putin talked to Erdogan, Blinkin said “war crimes have been committed in Ukraine”.

  • USD (USDIndex 98.12). Tested to 97.70 yesterday as weekly decline continues.
  • US Yields 10-yr up to 2.192% on close – down to 2.178% now.
  • Equities – USA500 +53.8 (+1.23%) and over 4400 to 4411. US500 FUTS flat at 4385 now. Tech & Fin rallied (FB & AMZN +2.0%, TSLA +3.73%, Occidental + 9.47%) and Berkshire Hathaway A-Shares breached $500,000 each!
  • USOil – Rallied back over $100.00 yesterday. to test $104.80 (200HR MA) now.
  • Gold – rallied to test $1950 yesterday, from Wednesdays flirt with $1900, trades at $1934 now.
  • Bitcoin holds the break of $40,000 yesterday, trades at $40,600 now.
  • FX marketsEURUSD back to 1.1078, unable to hold breach of 1.1100, USDJPY testing 119.00 & new 5-year highs at 118.85 and Cable having spiked over 1.3200 pre- BOE yesterday back to 1.3150 now, from 1.3100.
European Open – The June 10-year Bund future is down -5 ticks, while US futures are posting slight gains. Gilts benefited yesterday from the BOE’s “dovish-hike”, but after the initial move lower in yields, we could see some consolidation today. The FTSE 100 futures is posting modest gains, after local markets got a boost from a drop in Sterling yesterday. The DAX is fractionally lower this morning as stagflation concerns make a come back.

Today – US Existing Home Sales, CBR Policy Announcements, Quad Witching, Speeches from Fed’s Barkin, Bowman & Evans. Call between US President Biden and Chinese President Xi.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDJPY (+0.52%) Rally continues after another big move yesterday from 84.60 lows Tuesday to test 88.00 now. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram strong but cooling, RSI 73, OB but rising, H1 ATR 0.150, Daily ATR 0.980.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFM

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,277
2
74
Date : 21st March 2022.

Market Update – March 18 – BOE move, BOJ stay put – Stocks, Yields & Oil bounce.



Risk aversion continues to dominate as Russia’s attack intensifies and hopes of resolution through talks fade. Stagflation concerns and the longer term impact on the recovery are keeping a lid on stock markets and complicating the outlook for central banks. The BoE managed to pull off a “dovish rate hike” last week, China’s central bank kept lending rate unchanged in line with expectations, while SNB is expected to keep policy settings on hold this week. At the same time, China’s lockdown in the tech hub of Shenzhen threatens to lead to ongoing delays in long awaited deliveries. German PPI inflation hit 25.9% y/y in February – sharp rise in cost pressures even before the impact of the Ukraine war had really taken hold. Energy price inflation hit 68.0% y/y. No surprise that many at the ECB are getting nervous, especially as the risk of rising wage pressures is mounting.

  • USD steady (USDIndex 98.30)
  • Equities – After PBOC, Asian shares were down. ASX was down -0.2% at the close, while Hang Seng and CSI 300 are currently posting losses of -0.9% and -0.2% respectively. US futures are also in the red, after the strongest week since November 2020. GER40 and UK100 futures are down -0.2% and -0.02% respectively.
  • USOil – Rallied to $108.80 – attacks by Iran-backed rebels on energy facilities in Saudi Arabia pushed up prices.
  • Gold – remains under pressure at $1925.
  • Bitcoin holds the break of $40,000 yesterday, trades at $41,055 now.
  • FX marketsEURUSD back to 1.1050, unable to hold breach of 1.1100, USDJPY at 119.20 and Cable pullback to 1.3155.
Today – There are a number of ECB and BoE speakers scheduled this week that could attract attention in nervous markets. PMI reports in particular will be in focus in light of Ukraine tensions and the pick up in energy prices.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) USOIL (+4.03%) Rally continues to 109.36, reversing 50% of March losses. Fast MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram strong, RSI 79 and rising, H1 ATR 0.87, Daily ATR 9.25.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria PichidiCowell
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFM

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,277
2
74
Date : 22nd March 2022.

Market Update – March 22 – Rate-hike bets weigh.



The surge in Treasury yields was the story of Monday’s trading after Fed Chair Powell underscored the hawkish stance coming out of the FOMC meeting. The reaction in bonds showed a lot of jitters over the outlook and the ability of the Fed to achieve a soft landing. The US curve flattened markedly yesterday as the short end underperformed amid concern the Fed will hike rates aggressively. Stock market sentiment still looked much better across Asia than in Europe and even the US. The US Dollar was sought as oil prices lifted with WTI currently trading at $114.90. Energy prices are on the rise again and central banks are set to rein in stimulus with ECB’s Rehn yesterday confirming that in the central scenario the ECB is eyeing a lift off in rates for Q4 or maybe Q1 next year. Wall Street was depressed in choppy action, correcting from the prior week’s healthy gains as the FOMC looks to rein in demand to help address the inflation pop, which now looks to be longer lasting and more widespread due to the supply shock from the Ukraine war.

  • USD up (USDIndex 98.94).
  • 10-year Treasury rate is up 4.7 bp, the 2-year 7.0 bp, June 10-year Bund future is down 70 ticks, US futures are down -12 ticks. The JGB rate has lifted 1.1 bp and rates in Australia and New Zealand jumped 14.0 bp and 13.0 bp respectively in catch up trade.
  • EquitiesNikkei lifted 1.5%, ASX lifted 0.86%, and the Hang Seng jumped 2.1%, even as US futures declined. Hong Kong was boosted by Alibaba Group Holding Ltd’s $25 bln share buyback program and by contrast, the CSI 300 is currently slightly in the red. The USA30 slid -0.58%, with the USA100 sliding -0.4%, while the USA500 was off -0.04%.
  • USOil – renewed rise in oil prices, to $112.22 – currently lower to 108.68.
  • Gold – remains under pressure at $1934.
  • Bitcoin breaches the $43,400, trades at $42,185 now.
  • FX marketsEURUSD dips to 1.0960, USDJPY climbed to 120.48 and Cable rallied to 1.3136.
Today – UK public finance data and even more so the presentation of the budget will be of interest also for markets. The calendar today has Eurozone current account data, which is unlikely to attract too much attention.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) BTCUSD (+2.63%) Rally continues to 43,437, breaking the top of March 18. Fast MAs flattened along with RSI (59) but MACD signal line & histogram remain strong, implying near term pullback. H1 ATR 479.989, Daily ATR 2405.790.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria PichidiCowell
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFM

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,277
2
74
Date : 24th March 2022.

Market Update – March 24 – Stocks come back?



Treasuries recovered yesterday after some hefty losses in recent sessions pushed some rates up to the cheapest levels since May 2019. Reports of big inflows into Treasuries from quarterly portfolio rebalancing supported the rally, as did a stellar 20-year sale. And buying begot more buying to leave rates measurably lower.

Today there is a somewhat different picture than yesterday, as bonds rallied across the board and stocks traded mixed. Japanese markets corrected some of this week’s stellar gains after the minutes to the latest BoJ meeting showed officials flagging the risk of overshooting inflation. Oil prices are consolidating at high levels, as the Ukraine war drags on. For Europe, Putin’s demand that future gas deliveries should be paid in rubles raised the risk of imminent embargoes, as it may force the west to break its own sanctions. Energy prices will remain high then, putting pressure on governments to ease the burden for consumers and complicating the outlook for central banks. The UK budget was based on a sharply lower growth projection and a markedly higher inflation forecast and more revisions could well be necessary.

  • USD up (USDIndex 98.88).
  • 10-year Bund future is slightly higher, while the Treasury future is down 8 ticks, and in cash markets the US 10-year rate has lifted 4.7 bps to 2.339%.
  • Equities – Tencent Holdings Ltd reported its slowest pace of quarterly growth on record, which kept a lid on the Hang Seng. In the ASX there were gains for miners and others benefiting from stronger commodity prices. DAX and FTSE 100 futures up 0.1% and a 0.5% rise in the NASDAQ is leading US futures higher.
  • USOil – consolidated at high levels and USOIL is now at $114.89 after posting a high at 116.62.
  • Gold – ranging at $1943.
  • Bitcoin up, retesting the $43,500 resistance level again.
  • FX marketsEURUSD down to 1.0974, USDJPY extends to 121.73 and Cable steady at yesterday’s low, at 1.3179.
Today – SNB and Norges Bank are set to announce policy today, with the latter seen delivering another rate hike. Data releases include preliminary PMI reports for the Eurozone, UK and US, along with Durable goods.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) USDCHF (+0.32%) Rebounded to 0.9344. Fast MAs aligned higher, RSI at 60 and Stochastic at OB, while MACD remains negative. H1 ATR 0.00088, Daily ATR 0.00658.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria PichidiCowell
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFM

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,277
2
74
Date : 28th March 2022.

Market Update – March 28 – Yen, Oil & Stocks Dive as BOJ Remains “Ultra Loose”.



BOJ announced unlimited bond buying policy, but yields still rose and YEN crashed, pulling down Asian stock & Oil markets, also hit by a strict 11-day lockdown in Shanghai (27 mill.). The US Treasury 5-to-30-yr yield curve has inverted for the first time since 2006, history suggests slowdown & possible recession. US 10-yr back over 2.5%. USD bid. APPLE talks of long-term subscription model moving away from selling products, as it reduces supply of iPhone SE & AirPods.

Biden & Blinkin “clarify” – “Putin cannot remain in power” comments, Zelensky talks of neutrality but insists on geographic integrity, walking back earlier comments. Russian & Ukrainian negotiators to meet in Istanbul later. Israel hosts 4-Arab states & Blinkin, NK tests more ICBM’s. Japan tightens FX laws and Crypto loopholes to sanction Russia.

Week Ahead – US NFP (380k), US, UK and Canada GDP and many central bankers’ speeches.

  • USD (USDIndex 99.14). closed Friday 98.85. Friday’s US data weak (Pending Home Sales at 2-yr low & Consumer Sentiment at 11-yr low)
  • US Yields 10-yr up to 2.53% currently & new 3-yr highs, from Friday’s close 2.492%
  • Equities – USA500 +22.90 (+0.51%) 4543. US500 FUTS now at 4519 now. (Closed up +1.8% last week – Nasdaq best performer last week +2.0%.
  • USOil – Fell to start the new week to $108.94 now – from Friday’s close at $112.50
  • Gold – slipped to $1935 now, from Fridays close at $1955.
  • Bitcoin breaks up 4.4% from the 42k-45K range to $46,800 now.
  • FX marketsEURUSD back to test 1.0950, unable to hold breach of 1.1000, USDJPY over 123.00 & new 7-year highs and Cable back to 1.3130 now, from over 1.3200 on Friday.
European Open – The June 10-year Bund future is down -78 ticks at 157.87, underperforming versus Treasuries. A lockdown in Shanghai weighed on the CSI overnight and left oil prices lower, while the Ukraine war’s drag on Europe’s energy costs is set to remain extremely high, with the resulting spike in the cost of living hitting consumers and consumption trends in many countries. In the UK that has already become apparent and last week’s budget offered not enough relief to soothe concerns. DAX and FTSE 100 are up 0.056% and 0.054% respectively at the moment. A cautious start for stocks then into a data heavy week that brings the final round of Eurozone confidence numbers for March and preliminary inflation reports that are likely to look ugly.

Today – ASEAN summit, US 2yr and 5yr supply, Trade Goods Balance & US Inventories. Speech from BoE Governor Bailey.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDJPY (-0.98%) Big move against JPY today, continues trend of weaker YEN. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram strong but cooling, RSI 71, OB but rising, H1 ATR 0.281, Daily ATR 1.120.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFM

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,277
2
74
Date : 29th March 2022.

Market Update – March 29 – Yields in focus, Oil down again, TESLA rallies.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky
USD holds gains (USDJPY broke 125.00) and Treasury market fell again with US Treasury 5-to-30-yr yield curve remaining inverted suggesting economic slowdown & possible recession. US 10-yr slips back under 2.5%. Oil markets slumped (-1.0%) again on worries from Shanghai lockdown. US stocks rallied (NASDAQ +1.71%) growth stocks (TESLA +8%) gained as Banks & Energy stocks (Exxon -2.81%) fell. Asian markets higher (Nikkei & ASX +0.8%) except Chinese stocks.



BoE’s Bailey warned of a worse energy crisis than in the 70s, & highlighted that the BoE had already softened its rate guidance, even as it hiked rates again and flagged the chance of further tightening. Russian & Ukrainian negotiators meet in Istanbul later today. Limited expectations. Israel/Arab summit talked of united front to confront Iran. Biden proposed $5.79 trillion budget for next year increasing spending on Defence & raising taxes on wealthy. UK Met. Police to issue “Partygate” fines “imminently”.

Overnight AUD Retail Sales better than expected (1.8% vs 0.9% & 1.8%)) & JPY Unemployment better (2.7% vs 2.8% & 2.8%) German GfK Consumer confidence missed -15.5 vs -14.6 & -8.1 last time).

  • USD (USDIndex 99.00). Rallied to top at 99.35 yesterday.
  • US Yields 10-yr up to 2.53% new 3-yr highs yesterday, now down to 2.483%
  • Equities – USA500 +32.01 (+0.71%) 4575. US500 FUTS now at 4572 now. TSLA suggested another stock split and rallied over 8.0%, AMC up over +45% as the meme stocks raised their heads again.
  • USOil – Fell again (over 1.1%) to $102.80 yesterday, but has recovered $105.00.
  • Gold – slipped to $1916 yesterday from Friday’s close $1955. Back to $1922 now.
  • Bitcoin holds onto gains over 45K to top at 48.1K, yesterday, back to 47.5k now.
  • FX marketsEURUSD back to test 1.1000, now after 1.0950 test yesterday, USDJPY over 125.00 & new 7-yr highs back to 123.40 now as JP Government signals worries over weak Yen. Cable back to 1.3066 yesterday, recovered 1.3100 now.
European Open – The June 10-year Bund future is down 33 ticks, while in cash markets the 2-year Treasury yield is up 2.8 bp. Curve flattening continues as markets fret about the risk that aggressive central bank action will sap demand. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are up 0.9% and 0.6% respectively, US futures are also slightly higher, after a largely positive session across Asia, with hopes of progress in scheduled peace talks between Russia and Ukraine this week helping to underpin confidence.

Today – US JOLTS, CB Consumer Confidence & Case-Schiller Housing Index. Speeches from Fed’s Williams, Bostic & Harker, ECB’s Kazimir. EARNINGS – Micron & Lululemon.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) USDJPY (-0.34%) BOJ & Japanese Government raise concerns over weak Yen, following break of 125.00. MAs turned lower, MACD signal line & histogram now cooling, RSI 49.55, OB but rising, H1 ATR 0.403, Daily ATR 1.123.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFM

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,277
2
74
Date : 31st March 2022.

Market Update – March 31 – Volatile Q1 Comes to a Conclusion.



USD, Yields & Stocks (NASDAQ -1.21%) all dipped. Oil tanked over -6% – President Biden suggested releasing 180 mln barrels from US Strategic Reserve & OPEC stand firm on no production increases. Euro & Yen continued recovery, Gold lifted on weaker USD. Yield curve extended it’s inversion. ADP in-line at 455K ahead of NFP tomorrow, but Final Q4 GDP slipped a tick to 6.9% and German Inflation much hotter (7.3%) than expected, the highest since 1981 when the German bank rate was 11.4% while the ECB hangs on to 0% currently. Asian markets traded cautiously at month-end following the weak lead from the US.

Overnight – Chinese PMIs sink in contraction for first time since 2020 – Manu. 49.5 vs. 49.9 & Services 48.4 vs. 53.2. AUD Building Approvals & JPY Housing Starts both big beats. German Retail Sales fell significantly (0.3% vs 1.4%) UK Final Q4 GDP beats at 1.3% vs 1.0% (2021 final reading 6.6%) House Price Inflation much higher than expected (1.1% vs 0.5%).

  • USD (USDIndex 97.88). Dipped further to test 97.70 yesterday before recovering.
  • US Yields 10-yr closed at 2.358% , now back to 2.349%.
  • EquitiesUSA500 -29.15 (–0.63%) at 4602. US500 FUTS 4602 now too from 4622. APPLE (-0.66%) broke 11-day run looks to move into Fin. Services, use Chinese chips, HOOD8.49% & AMC12.77% continue meme stock volatility. Lululemon (+9.58%) following good Earnings this week.
  • USOil – Touched $100.65 after Biden news broke, but has recovered to $102.40.
  • Gold – rallied to $1937 yesterday, before falling back to $1922 now.
  • Bitcoin holds onto gains over 45K to trade at 47.0k now.
  • FX marketsEURUSD rallied to 1.1185 earlier, back to test 1.1165 now, USDJPY holds at 122.00 now from 121.30 lows yesterday as BOJ continue to defend JGB yield ceiling. Cable back to 1.3130 now.
European Open – The June 10-year Bund future is down -15 ticks at 157.01, US futures are little changed. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are fractionally higher.

Today – Month & Quarter End Balancing, German Unemployment, US Weekly Claims, PCE Price Index, OPEC+ Meeting, Speeches from Fed’s Williams, ECB’s Lane & de Guindos.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) EURAUD (+0.44%) Continues to rally off 4.5 year lows at 1.4535 on Monday. Next resistance 1.5000. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram higher but cooling, RSI 70 & rising, H1 ATR 0.0021, Daily ATR 0.152.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFM

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,277
2
74
Date : 1st April 2022.

Market Update – April 1 – USD & Treasuries Recover, Stocks Weaker again.



  • USD & Treasuries recovered as Yields & Stocks (NASDAQ -1.54%) fell. US markets had their worst Quarter in 2 years.
  • USOil slipped (–4%) & under $100 as President Biden confirmed releasing 180 mln barrels from US Strategic Reserve over the next 6-months & OPEC confirm no production increases.
  • Yield curve extended it’s inversion.
Russia threatens Europe (again) “pay in Roubles or we’ll cut off the Gas”.

Core PCE: in-line at 0.4%, Weekly Claims missed at 202K vs 195k but still below normal levels, and Chicago PMI’s surprised significantly to the upside (62.9 vs 56.3) Asian markets traded cautiously following another weak US session, mixed data releases and an extension of the Shanghai lockdown.

Overnight – Chinese Caixin Manu. PMI’s sink in contraction for first time since 2020 – Manu. 48.1 vs. 50.4. AUD AIG Manu Index ticked higher & JPY Manu PMI (54.1 vs. 53.2) & Tankan Services PMI (9 vs. 5) both beat.

  • USD (USDIndex 98.50). rallied from test of 97.70 yesterday.
  • US Yields 10-yr closed at 2.32% , now back to 2.361%.
  • EquitiesUSA500 -72.15 (1.57%) at 4530. US500 FUTS 4547. Banks & Technology stocks led the broadbased month end decline.
  • USOil – Trades at $98.65 following Biden announcement. (Opened the week on Monday at 112.50.
  • Gold – rallied to $1950 yesterday, before falling back to $1937 now.
  • Bitcoin slips under the key 45K to trade at 44.7k now.
  • FX marketsEURUSD back to 1.1055 now from 1.1170 yesterday. USDJPY holds at 122.40 now from 121.30 lows again yesterday as BOJ continue to defend JGB yield ceiling. Cable back to 1.3120 now.
European Open – The German 10-year rate is up 3.2 bp at 0.575%, alongside a 4.1 bp rise in the U.S. Treasury yield. However, while U.S. Treasury futures are moving higher, led by a 0.5% rise in the NASDAQ, DAX and FTSE 100 futures are down -0.1% and -0.05% respectively.

The uncertainty over what will happen to Russian gas exports to Europe is hanging over markets, amid fears that shortages will force producers to halt or throttle production. Germany’s Scholz tried to calm nerves over Putin’s announcement that payments will have to be made in Rubles, although whether Moscow’s proposal that payments in EUR will have to be paid into Gazprombank and then transferred into Rubles is a way forward remains to be seen. The war meanwhile drags on and while another round of video-talks between Ukraine and Russia are reportedly scheduled for today there is no sign of a breakthrough just yet. EZ inflation is going through the roof and today’s preliminary Eurozone HICP report is likely to look very ugly. ECB chief economist Lane has already laid the ground for an overshoot though, by turning dovish again and saying that the ECB must be ready to move in either direction in this situation.

Today – EZ, UK & US Final Manufacturing PMIs, US Labour Market Report, ISM Manufacturing PMI, China-EU Summit, Ukraine-Russia negotiators to meet again, Speech from Fed’s Evans.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) USDJPY (+0.57%) Continues to rally off 121.30 lows this week. Next resistance 123.00. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram higher & over 0 line, RSI 61 & rising, H1 ATR 0.211, Daily ATR 1.310.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFM

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,277
2
74
Date : 6th April 2022.

Market Update – April 6 – Treasury yields soared & FOMC Minutes ahead.



  • USD & Treasury yields have been rising. Stock markets have been under pressure, hit by the surge in yields with the tech-heavy index (USA100) plunging -2.26% as selling picked up into the close.
  • The market has priced in a lot of bearish elements, yields shot higher again on hawkish comments from Fed, RBA. Disappointing China PMI reports weighed on both bond and stock market sentiment.
  • USOil up to $102.48 as West mulls further sanctions against Russia. – Saudi boosted prices by over by $2 per barrel in late March.
  • US coal prices climbed over $100 a ton today for the first time in 13 years after the EU said it is mulling restricting coal imports from Russia.
  • US Rates on the 5-, 7-, and 10-year maturities were up almost 17 bps to 2.7108%, 2.678%, and 2.565%, respectively. The bond was 13.5 bps higher at 2.596%, while the 2-year rose over 10 bps to 2.526%. The bear curve steepened to 4.8 bps, after having been inverted for the prior three sessions at -3 bps Monday and -8 bps Friday.
  • USD (USDIndex 99.72) rallied from 98.80 yesterday.
  • EquitiesUSA500 -72.15 (1.57%) at 4530. US500 FUTS 4547. Banks & Technology stocks led the broadbased month end decline.
  • Gold – steady at $1920 low after 1947 high yesterday.
  • Bitcoin closing the gap at 45370?
  • FX marketsEURUSD dipped to 1.0883, USDJPY continued to struggle at 124.04, Cable back to 1.3120 now. AUD and NZD also remained supported as yields moved higher.
European Open – The German manufacturing orders came in much weaker than expected, with orders falling -2.2% m/m in February. The actual slump was a surprise that will add to concerns that the German manufacturing sector could be heading for recession as the spike in energy prices and supply chain disruptions hit Germany’s industrial core. Exports orders dropped -3.3% in February.

FOMC preview: The minutes should prove very interesting to the markets as they should provide details on the balance sheet run off. We’ll also read the various comments about the abrupt, hawkish pivot from the FOMC, although we already know that the threat of surging inflation and the likelihood that it would not prove as “transitory” as expected, along with the robust recovery and strength in the labor market, were the major factors that finally forced the Fed to shift into high gear by accelerating the pace of trimming accommodation and then eye aggressive rate hikes. The dot plot reflected the pivot, and Fedspeak since then has affirmed it. Governor Brainard’s comments Tuesday, in fact, indicated the Fed would announce the start of balance sheet reduction as soon as May. She also supported her colleagues’ views on the need for a larger and speedier pace of balance sheet runoff. We will look for details on that in the minutes. We suspect at a minimum the Fed will double the pace of that from the last cycle with $60 bln in Treasuries and $30 bln in MBS, although the still hot housing market could see a higher cap on MBS.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) USDCHF (+0.37%) At 6-day highs and close to R2 at 0.9331. Next resistance 0.9376. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram higher & over 0 line, RSI 77 & rising, H1 ATR 0.00087, Daily ATR 0.00617.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFM

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,277
2
74
Date : 11th April 2022.

Market Update – Stocks & Treasuries tank, Oil down again.



Yields bid, Stocks sink, EUR recovers, Oil lower – Treasuries dived into close on Friday and are down again to start the week, and all other markets are taking a lead from the pronounced move. Official confirmed BOJ will maintain loose monetary policy.

  • Stocks were mixed on Friday (NASDAQ -1.34%) weak in Asia (Covid & weak fixed income markets) & UK & European FUTS. down (-0.2 to 0.6%).
  • Yields rally as curve steepens – US 10-yr now at 2.776%.
  • EUR picked up after French Election result. USD bid elsewhere.
  • USD bid especially vs. weaker JPY (over 125), AUD, CAD & NZD.
  • Oil down 2% – after addition reserves released from EIA countries.
Pope calls on Russian & Ukraine leaders to observe Easter truce. Biden to meet Modi and call for no increases in Russian oil imports, Johnson met Zelenskiy in Kiev, Zelenskiy praised Scholz & Germany after meeting. Putin replaces top field General, focuses on Eastern Ukraine, reports he sees victory within 4-weeks.

Overnight Chinese inflation leaps – CPI 1.5% vs 1.3% & 0.9% previously, PPI cools 8.3%vs. 8.1% & 8.8% previously. Weak UK GDP February m/m GDP +0.1% vs +0.3% m/m expected, other industrial data also missed, pressures Sterling.

Week Ahead – The second week of April has some key data releases topped by the rate decision from the ECB, supported by decisions & outlooks from BOC & RBNZ. Global Inflation data from China, Germany, the UK & US, US Retail Sales data and Australian Jobs data will provide more guidance on the outlook. The week also the heralds the start of the Q1 Earnings Season with the major Wall Street banks all reporting.

  • USDIndex rallied to new high 100.17 since May 2020 on Friday, trades at 99.80 now.
  • US Yields 10-yr closed higher again at 2.713, up again now to 2.77%.
  • EquitiesUSA500 -12 (-0.27%) at 4488. – US500 FUTS 4476. Technology stocks & Consumer Discretionary led decline, & Energy led value stocks higher. TWTR -3.75% (ahead of Musk declining role on the board).
  • USOil – Trades at $95.90 following rally to $98.00 on Friday and dip to $93.78, on Thursday. Oil markets lost over 3% last week.
  • Gold – gyrated from $1937 to $1950 on Friday, back to $1945 now.
  • Bitcoin continued to decline from key 45k to trade at 42k support now.
  • FX marketsEURUSD back to test 1.0900 now from 1.0835 on Friday. USDJPY breaks key 125.00 to trade at 125.20 and Cable sinks back to test 1.3000 as USD bid continues.
European Open – European stocks up from early lows. European stock markets started lower, but have started to find a footing. DAX and FTSE 100 are still down -0.19% and -0.29% respectively, but the French CAC 40 is up 0.4%, against the background of easing election jitters after Macron managed to beat Le Pen in the first round of the presidential election yesterday. The two will now face each other in the final round on April 24, but with the result looking somewhat clearer than some polls had suggested French stocks are looking brighter this morning.

Today – Speeches from Fed’s Williams, Bostic and Evans.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) EURJPY (+0.99%) Recovering EUR and weaker JPY combine to push pair from 134.35 lows on Friday to 136.60 now. Next resistance 137.00 MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram higher, RSI 79.50, OB & rising, H1 ATR 0.254, Daily ATR 1.54.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFM

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,277
2
74
Date : 13th April 2022.

Market Update – April 13 – Inflation & Earnings come into focus.



Yields lost their bid, USD held onto gains, Stocks were lifted by the hot US CPI headline data, (new 40-yr high at 8.5%) only to close the day in the red as the CORE figure missed and suggested the top for inflation may be coming sooner than expected. JPY (weak data) & EUR (Putin saying talks at “dead-end”). NZD jumped as RBNZ raised rates by 50bp (largest in 22-yrs). Oil recovered $100, Gold moved higher again.

  • Stocks closed marginally lower after strong start. Asia markets stronger (Nikkei +1.68%) & UK & European FUTS marginally higher
  • Yields rally cooled, 10-yr from top at 2.836% to close at 2.727% & now at 2.738%.
  • EUR fell again after Putin comments.
  • USD holds bid, NZD broke 0.6900 briefly as RBNZ said they were not changing their outlook, but just bringing forward rate hike cycle.
  • Oil continued to recover and holds over $100 – Shanghai lockdowns ease further but record levels of new COVID infections nationwide.
Biden said Russia has committed Genocide, (additional $750m military aid to Ukraine to come) Putin said Russia will achieve its aims in Ukraine and that talks “have again returned to a dead-end situation for us”. Johnson & Sunak refuse to resign after being fined by the London Met. Police for breaking lockdown rules. More fines to come potentially. Brainard, (Fed Vice Chair), Birkin & Bullard all agreed that aggressive rate hikes were required but disagree what happens afterwards. Brainard sees weaker inflation and a return to pre-pandemic conditions, Birkin & Bullard see inflation, particularly wage inflation, being “sticky” for much longer.

Overnight JPY Machine Orders & Money Supply miss significantly (-9.8% vs.-1.5%). China Trade Balance (surplus) more than doubles, Exports beat, Imports surprisingly fall. UK Inflation at 30-yr high CPI, (7.0%) CORE (5.7%) RPI (9.0%) & PPI 19.2% – all stronger than expected.

  • USDIndex rallied to test new high 100.42 , trades at 100.34 now.
  • US Yields 10-yr closed lower at 2.727%, up again now to 2.824%.
  • EquitiesUSA500 -15.08 (-0.34%) at 4397. (A breach of 4400) US500 FUTS 4418. TWTR (-5.38%) – Earnings Season kicks off today.
  • USOil – Trades at $100.30 following a rally to $102.00, Shanghai eases some lockdowns.
  • Gold – held $1950 yesterday and tested next resistance at $1975, back to $1970 now.
  • Bitcoin continued to decline from key 45k to test 39k zone, recovered to 40k now.
  • FX marketsEURUSD back to test 1.0810 earlier, (5-wk lows) now 1.0830. USDJPY breaks 126.00 to trade at 126.15 and Cable sinks back to test 1.2985 as USD bid continues and very hot inflation data weighs.
European Open – Asian stock markets mostly managed gains as markets digested US inflation data that weren’t quite as bad as feared, especially in the core reading. Mainland China bourses struggled though, as hope of easing virus restrictions faded and after trade data showed unexpected weakness in imports, which left the trade surplus higher than anticipated, but added to concern that the domestic economy is struggling with the official “No-Covid” policy. The CSI 300 is currently down -0.3%, the Hang Seng up 0.6%, however, with tech stocks recovering.

Today – US PPI, New Zealand Manufacturing PMI, BoC Policy Announcement, IEA OMR, Earnings from BlackRock, Delta Air Lines, JPMorgan.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) EURNZD (+0.77%) Dipped to 1.5700 on RBNZ announcement, reversed quickly to test 1.5935 now. Next resistance 1.5970 & 1.6000. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram moving higher & over 0, RSI 68 & rising, H1 ATR 0.00357, Daily ATR 0.01640.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFM

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,277
2
74
Date : 14th April 2022.

Market Update – April 14 – “Peak Inflation?” & Ms. Lagarde.



Yields stabilized lower, USD cooled significantly and Stocks bounced back. BOC added 50 bp to their base rate and warned of more to come. USDCAD sank from 1.2675 down to sub 1.2500. USDJPY hit a 20-year high over 126.00. US PPI lifted to all-time highs (11.2%) following 40-yr highs for CPI (8.5%) on Tuesday. All 13 measures of UK Inflation were higher than expected with CPI at 30-yr highs (7.0%) and a strong CORE (ex. Fuel & Food) at 5.7%, RPI 9.0% (important for wage settlements) and PPI 19.2%.

  • Stocks higher (NASDAQ +2.0%) Asia markets stronger too (Nikkei +1.18%) & UK & European FUTS also higher
  • Yields rally cooled further, 10-yr closed at 2.69% & now at 2.712%.
  • USDIndex cooled from 100.50 highs & trades 99.60 now.
  • EquitiesUSA500 +49 (+1.12%) at 4446. – US500 FUTS 4452. Delta Airlines (+6.21%), AAL (+10.62%). JPM (-3.22%) a miss for Trading volumes. Big Tech bounced (AMZN +3.15%)
  • Oil & Gold continued to recover and hold over $103 & $1975 respectively.
  • Bitcoin recovered from 39k zone on Tuesday to 41k now.
  • FX marketsEURUSD recovered from 1.0808 lows (5-wk+ lows) to now 1.0915. USDJPY cooled from 126.30 20-yr high to trade at 125.40 and Cable recovered from 1.2972 lows to 1.3140 now.
Biden announced an additional $800 million in military assistance to Ukraine, (brings total to 2.5bn). Xi says sticking to tough COVID curbs will bring victory. Markets not convinced. PBOC rate cut imminent? Japan Fin Min. says country has not emerged from deflation, & 76% of Japanese business worried about the weak YEN damaging the economy. Finland & Sweden on brink of NATO membership. Sri Lanka about to default on debt, first of many low income nations?

Overnight – More peak inflation news ?? AUD job growth missed (17.9k vs 30.0k & 77.4k last time) & Unemployment rose (4.0% vs 3.9% & 3.9%). CHF PPI missed and UK House Inflation also slipped.

ECB Preview Record high inflation and hawkish comments from some council members have left markets positioned for at least one rate hike from the ECB later in the year. However, with no sign that the war in Ukraine will be over any time soon and the sanctions against Russia already starting to cloud over the growth outlook, we suspect that chief economist Lane will want to keep a lid on tightening expectations today. Lane already warned against an “overreaction” to the surge in inflation and that the initial inflationary pressure from a supply shock “should decline over time”. He also highlighted the “significant risks to growth” from the war in Ukraine and the sanctions against Russia, while saying that “the best way that monetary policy can navigate this uncertainty is to emphasize the principles of optionality, gradualism and flexibility“. Lane is also keeping a close eye on spreads as the end of the PEPP program last month has kept peripheral vulnerable to bouts of risk aversion and even suggested that the PEPP program could be revived if necessary. Judging by ECB data released yesterday, the ECB has already blown much of the monthly APP purchases over the first two weeks of the month, clearly also in an attempt to keep a lid on yields and Lane will likely be arguing against an overly hawkish signal today that would further fuel rate hike speculation. That means the event risk is a more balanced statement than markets currently expect. – Action Economics

Today – US Weekly Claims, Retail Sales, Business Inventories & UoM Sentiment, ECB & CBRT Policy Announcements, ECB’s Lagarde, Fed’s Harker & Mester, Earnings from Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and UnitedHealth.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDUSD (+0.50%) Recovered from 0.6756 lows following RBNZ announcement, to close at 0.6796, testing 0.6830 now. Next resistance 0.6850 & 0.6875. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram moving higher & over 0, RSI 64 & rising, H1 ATR 0.00099, Daily ATR 0.00703.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFM

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,277
2
74
Date : 18th April 2022.

Market Update – April 18.



USD boomed, breaching 100.70, Yields rallied significantly, Stocks sank amid thin trade into holiday-extended weekend. The potential aggressive 50 bp rate hikes from the FOMC in May, and likely June too, kept markets cautious. China’s PBoC announced a 25 bp reduction in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) for big banks, and 50 bp for smaller banks, on the heels of Wednesday’s call from the State Council for such action. It will take effect on April 25. China’s GDP expanded by 4.8% in Q1. USDJPY had a short lived rally this morning to 126.78, before both Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda and Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki voiced concerns. – “Kuroda made clear on Monday that while a weak yen could impact corporate profits, it was premature to debate any exit from that easy policy.”

  • Stocks lower (NASDAQ at 4360.88) Nikkei closed down 1.08% at 26,799.71 on Monday with US, China and Japan the only ones open today.
  • USDIndex retests 100.70 highs.
  • EquitiesUSA500 at 4360 lows.
  • Oil gapped up to $108.54 over supply concerns again as Libya halted operations at El Feel oilfield due to protests, and US oil drilling, output moving higher with energy prices.
  • Gold spiked to $1990 – Thin liquidity, firm yields risk aversion?
  • Bitcoin sank to 38,444.
  • FX marketsYen 10% weaker since beginning of March. EURUSD steady below 1.0800 (2-year lows), Cable tumbled at 1.3017, AUDUSD near 1-month low at 0.7350 (breaking 50-day SMA).
Today – Comments from Fed Chair Powell, BOE Bailey and ECB President Lagarde on Thursday will be interesting but we do not expect any new ground to be broken. There is little on this week’s calendar data-wise and today’s slate has just the NAHB housing market index. There is Fedspeak from Bullard.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) XAGUSD (+1.40%) Breached R1 at 25.90. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram moving higher, RSI 58 but flattenning, H1 ATR 0.1021, Daily ATR 0.556.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFM

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,277
2
74
Date : 19th April 2022.

Market Update – April 19 – Markets are back.



Markets are back today. European as well as US stock futures are moving higher, after a mixed close across the Asia-Pacific region overnight. Heightened geopolitical risks weighed on confidence and mainland China bourses failed to get a real boost from the PBoC’s pledge to support the economy. The Ukraine war and central bank moves will remain in focus, amid further signs of weakening growth and rising inflation in particular in Europe. Hawkish IMF and World Bank meetings are a highlight this week and the World Bank already slashed its growth forecast. RBA: closer to raising interest rates for the first time in more than a decade due to accelerating inflation.

The World Bank lowered its forecast for 2022 growth. The markets also monitored a Goldman Sachs estimate of a 35% risk for a recession over the next two years.
– 15-month crisis response package of around $170 bln.

  • Yields – The 10-year Treasury yield is down -0.6 bp at 2.85%, while the German 10-year has lifted 2.1 bp to 0.86%, after the extended break.
  • Stocks waffled between gains and losses through the session, but finally settled slightly lower with losses of -0.1% on the Dow and NASDAQ, and a -0.02% dip in the USA500. Nikkei closed 0.7% higher. China bourses underperformed and the Hang Seng plunged -2.5% after returning from the extended weekend.
  • USDIndex remains on bid, at 100.99 highs.
  • Oil edged up to $109.81, from an overnight low of $106 amid the continued supply-demand tug of war. Supply was more of a focal point as two Libyan ports were shut amid anti government protests and the National Oil Corporation declared a force majeure on loadings. Currently steady above $107.00.
  • Bitcoin spiked to $41,223.
  • FX marketsEURUSD choppy around 1.0780, Cable tumbled below 1.3000, AUDUSD +0.3% supported by RBA minutes at 0.7385.
Today – There is little on this week’s calendar data-wise and today’s slate has just the Housing Starts and Building permits from US. There is Fedspeak from Evans and SNB’s Chairman Jordan.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) CADJPY (+1.40%) Breached 102.00. MAs still aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram moving higher, RSI 91 but flattening, H1 ATR 0.197, Daily ATR 0.892.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFM

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,277
2
74
Date : 20th April 2022.

Market Update – April 20 – USD slips, Stocks rally, Yields hold, Gold & Oil dive.



USD slipped from highs, Yields held onto gains, Stocks rallied and Gold & Oil dived. USDJPY hit a new 20-yr high at 129.40 before a sharp reverse. Kashkari (Dove) re: Inflation, Fed will “have to do more” The IMF & World Bank significantly cut global economic growth. Stocks rallied (NASDAQ +2.15%), Netflix lost 200k subscribers in Q1, (first subscriber loss in 10 years) shares dived -18% after hours having gained +3.18% at the close. Asian Markets broadly higher (Nikkei +0.86%), Chinese markets lower.

  • USDIndex spiked over 101.00 & trades at 100.75 as USD cools & Yields hold up.
  • EquitiesUSA500 +70 (+1.61%) at 4462. – Recovering 4400. US500FUTS lower at 4438. NFLX will be marked lower on open after subscriber decline and weak outlook. AAL & UAL gained +5.66% & +4.5% respectively.
  • Yields moved significantly higher, 10-yr moved within a smidge of 3.00% earlier from a close at 2.913%
  • Oil & Gold both tumbled from Monday highs. USOil tanked from $109.75 to under $102 and trades at $102.80 now. Gold fell from $2 short of $2000 to $1940 now.
  • Bitcoin recovered from 39.5k on Monday to over 41.3k now.
  • FX marketsEURUSD has recovered 1.0800 from 1.0760 lows yesterday. USDJPY cooled from decade highs to trade at 128.65 and Cable recovered from 1.2980 lows to 1.3025 now.
Overnight Japan – big miss for Trade balance (-0.90T vs -.058T) (Imports higher due to Energy costs, Exports down due to China lockdowns), Industrial Activity missed significantly (-1.35 vs +0.3%). PBOC did not move rates again, German PPI hotter again (+4.9% vs 1.4% last month).

Today – EZ Industrial Production, Canadian CPI, US Existing Home Sales, French Election TV Debate, Speeches from Fed’s Daly & Evans. Earnings ASML (beat) Carrefour, Danone (beat), Heineken, P&G and United Airlines.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDUSD (+0.55%) Rallied from lows under 0.7340 yesterday to 0.7430 highs today. Next resistance 0.7450. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram moving higher, RSI 65 & rising, Stochs in OB zone. H1 ATR 0.0015, Daily ATR 0.0071.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFM

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,277
2
74
Date : 28th April 2022.

Market Update – April 28 – USD Dominates with FX Markets in Focus.



USDJPY rockets higher with 130.00 in the cross-hairs as BOJ leaves main policy steady, to hold 10yr JGB ceiling at 0.25%, while JPY was clobbered across the board again. AUDJPY back to 92.00, GBPJPY 162.00, EURJPY 136.40. The markets continued to mull the implications of the stand off between the EU and Russia over payment modalities for Russian gas deliveries.

  • The front on a gradual ban of Russian oil imports has hardened, as Russia upped the ante, but while the EU urged a united front on Russian demands for ruble payments, the European Commission last week seemed open to companies finding ways to tally Moscow’s demands with the EU’s sanctions against Putin and that is what many companies are doing now. In the end it seems unlikely that gas supplies to the EU will stop immediately, although governments will work even harder to become independent of Russian deliveries as soon as possible.
  • The 10-year Treasury yield is down –1.1 bp to 2.82%, while JGBs were supported after the BOJ.
  • StocksASX lifted 1.2%, and the Hang Seng 0.5%, but the CSI 300 is currently down -0.4%, with Covid developments still in focus. US futures are also higher, with a 1.3% rise in the USA100 leading the way.
  • Earnings – Strong earnings from Microsoft and Visa. Facebook owner Meta beat Wall Street forecasts and said it had eked out user growth, sending its shares up almost 20% after hours. Microsoft MSFT.O shares rallied as well. Google-parent Alphabet Inc GOOGL.O fell 3.6% as slowing YouTube ad sales pushed quarterly revenue below expectations. Boeing Co BA.N dropped 7.5% after it disclosed $1.5 billion in abnormal costs from halting 777X production.
  • USDIndex the main leader, at 103.70 highs.
  • Oil is currently trading at $101.08, with yesterday’s gains already erased. China’s capital Beijing closed some public spaces and stepped up checks at others on Thursday, as most of the city’s 22 million residents embarked on more COVID-19 mass testing aimed at averting a Shanghai-like lockdown.
  • Gold drifts to $1885.
  • FX markets – Developments are hurting the EUR, which has dropped below 1.0500, while EURGBP fell towards the 0.8394 mark. GBPUSD is also under pressure amid general Dollar strength. AUD and NZD were on the ropes as worries about a recession in Europe and a slowdown in China engulfed risky assets and overwhelmed the promise of rising interest rates at home.
Today – Inflation reports for Germany and Spain are due today, as well as confidence data for Italy.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) CADJPY (+1.68%) breached 101.90. MAs pointing higher, MACD signal line & histogram moving higher, RSI at 82, all signalling further boost in the near term. H1 ATR 0.277, Daily ATR 1.15.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFM

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,277
2
74
Date : 29th April 2022.

Market Update – April 29.



Risk appetite surged as optimism over earnings more than overshadowed concerns over the 8% pop in the y/y GDP price gauge and the -1.4% print on Q1 GDP. The contraction in growth was seen as a one-off, however, due to trade disruptions limiting supply alongside a surge in demand following the pandemic, with inventory drawdowns contributing negatively too. Stock markets remained supported overnight, with hopes of support measures in China helping to underpin sentiment, after China vowed to underpin the health of so-called platform firms. Meanwhile, the pick-up in core PCE inflation to a 5.2% y/y pace from 5.0% y/y was also seen on the light side and hence supported notions that prices may be topping out.

European Fixed Income Outlook: Bund yields are down -2.5 bp at 0.87% in early trade, with Eurozone bonds paring some of yesterday’s losses and yields coming down as the unexpected stagnation in French GDP at the start of the year highlighted that there are still reasons for the ECB to remain cautious even as inflation is going through the roof. German import price inflation jumped to 31.2% y/y in March, from 26.3% y/y in the previous month.

  • Yields are coming down from yesterday’s highs. The 2-year yield rose over 5 bps to test 2.68% and the 10-year challenged 2.90% before drifting back to 2.63% and 2.85%, respectively.
  • StocksGER40 and UK100 futures are up around 1.0%, USA100 soared 3.06% on the day, with the USA500 2.47% higher, while the USA30 climbed 1.85%, but all off of late peaks. Japan is closed for a holiday, the ASX up 1.1% at the close.
  • Earnings – Meta shares surge after Facebook ekes out user growth; Qualcomm rises after it forecasts upbeat revenue; Apple Inc, the world’s most valuable company, and e-commerce giant Amazon.com Inc rallied more than 4% ahead of their quarterly reports later in the day.
  • USDIndex lost some of its recent gains, currently at 103.15.
  • Oil at $106.42. Oil prices meanwhile moved higher as overall confidence improved and fears over China’s Covid measures eased somewhat.
  • Gold back above $1900.
  • FX marketsEUR and Sterling also found some buyers, but while EURUSD and Cable are up from yesterday’s lows, they are still looking pretty weak at currently 1.0548 and 1.2530 respectively. USDJPY still held above the 130.
Today – German and Eurozone GDP are still to come and Eurozone inflation data are also due, while in the US session eyes are on PCE and Canadian GDP. Exxon and Chevron earnings on tap.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) XAGEUR (+1.27%) breached 22.20. MAs pointing higher, MACD signal line & histogram turned positive, RSI at 62, all signalling further boost in the near term. H1 ATR 0.077, Daily ATR 0.509.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFM

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,277
2
74
Date : 2nd May 2022.

Market Update – May 2 – USD hold gains, China data dives, Stocks tank.



USD continues to hold onto recent gains, Stocks crashed (NASDAQ -4.17% Friday to close a miserable April and register its biggest daily loss since September and a weekly loss of -3.9%), Asian markets weaker (many closed due to Eid holidays) and European FUTS down over 1.5%. (UK closed today). Yields jumped higher and VIX soared over 7% to 31.30. Oil & Gold both rallied and then gave up all their gains. Weekend data – Chinese Manu & Services PMI’s (47.4 vs 49.5 & 41.9 vs. 48.4) the worst in 2 yrs as lockdowns grip the economy. Berkshire Hathaway invested over $51bn in Q1 inc. Chevron (over $21bn), Occidental ($10bn), HP ($4.2bn) & Alleghany ($11.6bn). US House speaker, Pelosi visited Ukraine promising support ‘until fight is done’.

  • USDIndex cooled to under 103.00 on Friday, closed at 103.18, and is back to 103.45, now. April opened at 98.29, a near 5% gain.
  • EquitiesUSA500 -155.57 (-3.63%) at 4131. – US500FUTS at 4145 now. AMZN -14.05%, INTEL -6.94% MSFT & NFLX -4%, APPL -3.66%. Nasdaq lost -13% in April (worst since 2008 Fin. Crisis) S&P500 has lost -13% in 2022 (the worst Jan-April since 1939). 50% of S&P500 companies have reported this Earnings season and 81% have exceeded expectations (average 66%). But outlooks (partic. from AZMN & APPL) have weighed. Volatility is back too, Jan-April there were 33 days with +/- 2% daily moves, in all of 2021 there were just 24.
  • Yields moved significantly higher 10-yr closed at 2.887%. Up 1.96% today, at 2.942
  • Oil & Gold both had a volatile session moved higher and then reversed to trade lower today. USOil tested to $108.00 on Friday but trades at $103.85 now. Gold tested $1920 zone Friday and trades at $1885 now, below key $1900 handle.
  • Bitcoin declined from $40k on Friday to sub $38k to test $39k now.
  • FX marketsEURUSD down to 1.0525, USDJPY up from 129.40 to 133.30 now and Cable recovered to 1.2550 now from 1.2410 lows on Friday.
Overnight JPY – Consumer Confidence missed 33 vs 34.9 and Final Manu PMI in line at 53.5.

Week Ahead – The focus remains on inflation and the much anticipated response from the FOMC, RBA and BOE this week, while the markets price in action from the ECB down the road. The advent of month-end, a holiday in Japan on Friday, and the UK shut today accelerated some profit taking on Wall Street after the early rally. It looks as though many are sidelined into the weekend and ahead of the FOMC where there is a lot of uncertainty over the aggressiveness of the Fed’s normalization path, and the BOE’s ambiguity. Hiking rates too much too quickly would only increase the risk of a stagflation scenario and the BOE’s current policy is already much closer to neutral than the ECB’s. The week also sees NFP, and employment data from Canada, Europe and New Zealand.

Today – German Retail Sales, US ISM Manufacturing, EU Energy Ministers meeting, (Hungary would veto sanctions on Russian energy) Earnings from Italgas, Holidays in UK, China and many Asian countries.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) USDJPY (+0.49%) Rallied from lows under 1129.40 Friday to 130.45 highs today. Next resistance 130.50 MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram moving higher, RSI 54 & rising, H1 ATR 0.263, Daily ATR 1.38.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.