Daily Market Analysis from Hotforex Broker

[HFM]

Date : 14th March 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 14th March 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets moved sideways, with investors continuing to hold back ahead of the Fed rate review tomorrow. The Nikkei closed with a -0.12% loss, Hang Seng and CSI 300 are also posting slight gains, while the ASX was up 0.03% at the close. U.S. stock futures are slightly down and FTSE 100 futures are moving higher as Sterling continues to slide. Against that background Gilts are likely to continue to underperform, but Bunds, which still managed to rescue some gains into the close yesterday, continued to decline in after hour trade and could be under pressure at the open. U.K. Prime Minister May managed to secure backing from lawmakers to trigger Article 50 and start official divorce talks with the EU and will reportedly do so in the last week of May. The data calendar today has final inflation data from Germany and Spain as well as Eurozone industrial production and most importantly German ZEW investor confidence for March.

ECB: Tackling weak productivity is key. The central bank head, Mario Draghi, is once again highlighting the limits of monetary policy and the need for structural reforms to boost growth saying in Frankfurt that addressing weak productivity in the Eurozone is key. Draghi said “while some progress can be made in innovation, it is not my view the sole issue. Equally important for the euro area is to facilitate and encourage the spread of new technology”. He also highlighted that “much of the debate today about the true level of the real equilibrium interest rate, for example, is a debate about the outlook for productivity growth”. Furthermore, from ECB’s members, yesterday, Weidmann rejected criticism of Germany over EUR level. The Bundesbank President in an e-mail answer said the USD strength reflects the outlook for the U.S. economy, adding that recent USD movements are within the range of normal fluctuations.

Germany: German Feb HICP inflation was confirmed at 2.2% y/y as expected, up from 1.9% y/y in the previous month and clearly above the ECB’s upper limit for price stability of 2.0%. The breakdown confirmed that base effects from food and energy prices are mainly to blame. Food price inflation jumped to 4.4% y/y in February, from 3.2% y/y in January and just 0.5% y/y in September last year, after a late cold winter hit crops. Prices for heating oil surged 43.8% y/y in February, after falling through most of last year. Petrol price inflation hit 15.6% y/y. So the data back Draghi’s argument that the rise in the headline rate is mainly driven by temporary effects, while underlying inflation remains low, which means the central bank can still allow to take a relaxed stance for now, although officials will have to keep an eye on second round effects amid improving labour markets.

Main Macro Events Today

• US PPI – February PPI data expected to remain unchanged (median 0.1%) on the month with the core up 0.2%. This follows stronger January figures which had the headline up 0.6% with the core up 0.4% for the month.

• German ZEW – Germany’s investor confidence reading underperformed other sentiment numbers in February and now expected to bounce back somewhat this month to 13.2 from 10.4. Optimists are clearly outnumbering pessimists despite the multitude of political challenges and the ECB has proved that its eventual exit from stimulus measures will happen very gradually and with market reactions always in mind.

• EU Industrial Production – Eurozone industrial production numbers for January will seem too backward looking to change the outlook., since expected to rise to 1.2% m/m, after the -1.6% m/m decline in December.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 15th March 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 15th March 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are narrowly mixed, with investors holding their breath ahead of today’s Fed policy review, which is expected to bring another rate hike. The ASX managed to close higher again after a weak start as strong iron ore prices underpinned a rally in Fortescue shares. U.S, and U.K. stock futures are also moving higher, the latter despite a broad rise in Sterling. Oil prices are also up and the front end WTI future is trading at USD 48.51 per barrel. Today’s European calendar has U.K. labour market data, as well as final Feb inflation data from France and Italy. Germany sells EUR 1bln of 30 year Bunds and market will look to the Netherlands, where elections are held today amid an increasingly escalating spat with Turkey, that seems to have strengthened PM Rutte’s stance against anti-EU populist Wilders.

US reports: the PPI rose 0.3% in February with the core rate up 0.3% as well, following respective January gains of 0.6% and 0.4%. On an annual basis, PPI posted a 1.5% y/y rate versus 1.2% y/y before, while the core rate accelerated to 1.8% y/y from 1.6% y/y. February goods prices were up 0.3% with food posting a 0.3% gain while energy was up 0.6%. Services prices rose 0.4%. The numbers are a little higher than forecast. Rising inflation is one of the main factors behind the Fed’s likely rate hike today. The y/y PPI rise should climb to 2.3% in March from 2.2% in February thanks to a hard comparison, while the y/y core price rise climbs to 1.8% from 1.5% in February. On the old SOP basis, we saw a 0.1% headline PPI rise after gains of 1.1% in January, 0.6% in December and 0.2% in November. Last Thursday’s trade price report revealed firm February prices beyond an oil import price drop that reflected surprisingly little downward pressure from the dollar’s surge.

German ZEW & EU Industrial Production: German ZEW investor confidence rose to 12.8 from 10.4 in the previous month. A tad below Bloomberg consensus, but still a sign that the number of those optimistic about the economic outlook continues to rise, although uncertainty continues to keep a lid on investment sentiment in particular. Eurozone industrial production rose 0.9% m/m in January, after falling -1.2% m/m in the previous month. Numbers have been volatile, and the three months’ trend rate remains unchanged at 0.9%, unchanged from December, the data are still consistent with ongoing economic improvements ahead. European data releases included the slightly weaker than hoped improvement in ZEW investor confidence as well as a confirmation of German headline HICP at 2.2% y/y, with food and energy prices driving the rise above the Eurozone’s upper limit for price stability.

Main Macro Events Today

• UK Unemployment Rate – Monthly labour market report expected to show the unemployment rate remaining unchanged at the cycle low of 4.8%.

• US Retail Sales and CPI – February CPI is expected to be unchanged after a 0.6% surge in January, while the core rate is projected rising 0.2% following the 0.3% gain previously. That should leave the annual headline rate rising at a 2.6% y/y pace versus 2.5% y/y. February retail sales are expected to fall 0.3% amid weakness in autos, nearly unwinding the 0.4% January gain. Excluding autos, sales should also fall 0/3%, partly due to declines in gas and food.

• FOMC Statement & Rate Decision – The FOMC takes center stage and is universally expected to hike rates another 25 bps to a 0.75% to 1.00% policy band. Key for the outlook will be the Fed’s dot plot, as well as any discussion regarding the balance sheet. Given the improved data and more hawkish rhetoric, it’s likely the Fed will confirm its three-tightening dot plot from December.

• Dutch Elections – The Netherlands kicks off this year’s round of elections today and all eyes will be on anti-EU, anti-immigrant populist Geert Wilders and his PVV.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 16th March 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 16th March 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets moved higher, led by the Hang Seng which surged 1.56%. The Nikkei closed with a 0.7% gain as the Yen strengthened and the ASX was 0.20% better off at the close. Oil prices continued to rise and the front end WTI future is trading above USD 49 per barrel. Markets were relieved that the Fed delivered the expected 25bp hike, but didn’t signal faster tightening ahead and stuck with the projected 2 additional moves this year. The decision was followed by China’s central bank, which lifted charges on open market operations and the medium-term lending facility. The bank suggested that the move was largely driven by market expectations. European and U.S. stock futures are also moving higher and in Europe, news that in the Netherlands PM Rutte beat anti-EU populist Wilders by a surprisingly large margin will help to dampen EU and EMU break up fears as the focus turns to the French election and Brexit talks. Today’s calendar has central bank decisions from the BoE, the SNB and Norges Bank, with all banks expected to keep policy on hold. The Eurozone also has the final CPI reading for February.

FOMC: The FOMC hiked its target corridor by another quarter point, after a hiatus in February, for the third move of the cycle and the first of potentially three hikes forecast for 2017. Yellen and company had ensured that the move was nearly fully discounted in advance, and the positive market reaction suggested that they succeeded. The Fed’s stance wasn’t as hawkish as some had feared, but there were some subtle changes that merit closer inspection. The Fed has noted a more optimistic shift in sentiment in recent months, which is “obvious and notable.” But most businesses are still displaying a wait and see posture currently. Regarding a question on why raise rates now, given the Atlanta Fed’s Q1 GDP forecast was trimmed to a low 0.9%, Yellen noted policy is still accommodative and there are other signs the Fed is monitoring that are showing improvement. Yellen’s press conference has ended without any new insights or revelations. She outlined the Fed’s motives behind the actions, saying the tightening was appropriate given the improvement in the economy and as they are close to meeting their policy objectives. She again noted, as she has done in recent prior comments, that the Fed has yet to officially plug in projections on fiscal policy. There was no indication of any urgency behind further rate hikes.

Netherland: Anti-EU Populists take a hit. The latest polls ahead of the election already indicated that Rutte’s clear stance against Turkey’s attempt to bring the campaign for Erdogan’s constitutional referendum to the Netherlands helped the PM to overtake anti-EU populist Wilders, but the preliminary results of the Dutch election show Rutte winning with a surprisingly large margin. Nexit is off the table and the anti-EU camp has taken a hit, as the Dutch election also showed that while many are tempted to cast a protest vote and shake up the establishment, they do not want radical change and a breakup of the EU. So rather than acting as a positive example, the Brexit referendum seems to have acted as a warning. Rutte now will have to find coalition partners and the Netherlands could again face a lengthy period of political uncertainty as talks progress, but with Wilders beaten, this is unlikely to have wider market implications.

Japan: Earlier today during BoJ’s Policy Rate’s released and BoJ’s Press Conference, BoJ’s Kuroda said the bank will continue “powerful monetary easing” under yield curve control framework “to achieve the price target at the earliest date possible.” He noted that inflation has been moving sideways while saying that “momentum for inflation to accelerate to 2 percent remains in place but lacks strength.” Regarding the Fed’s rate tightening path Kuroda said “I don’t think U.S. interest rate developments will immediately have a severe impact on emerging economies,” adding that “we need to watch developments carefully.” He also touched on the trade protectionist issue, arguing that “not only the G20 but the IMF and OECD have also said that trade protectionism damages global growth,” emphasizing that “Japan’s stance on this will not change.”

Main Macro Events Today

• BOE Statement & Rate Decision – The March BoE Monetary Policy Committee meeting (announcement and minutes), is widely expected to leave the repo rate at 0.25% and QE settings unchanged, both by unanimous vote.

• EU Final CPI & core CPI – Eurozone will have the final CPI reading for February, which expected to remain unchanged at 2.0%. This is in line with the ECB’s upper limit for price stability. But, the uptick is mainly driven by oil prices and base effects, and with core inflation still low at just 0.9% y/y, the data is not sufficient to prompt a radical change in ECB policy.

• US Philly Fed survey & Housing Starts – Philly Fed manufacturing surveys are likely to show a slower pace of expansion than seen in February at 30.2 from 43.3 last time. February housing starts are seen bouncing to a 1.26 mln pace after slipping 2.6% to 1.246 mln in January.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 17th March 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 17th March 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets were mixed overnight, with the ASX managing to close with a 0.24% gain, while the Nikkei was down -0.35% at the close. The Hang Seng moved sideways after yesterday’s rally and the CSI 3000 is heading south. U.K. and U.S. futures are also in negative territory and it seems European markets could correct some of yesterday’s relief rally, which could help to put a floor under bond markets. Bunds underperformed yesterday and extended losses in after hour trade, hit by comments from Nowotny who suggested that the deposit rate could rise before the repo rate when the ECB eventually starts it exit from the loose policy. The comments were clearly not intended to signal any immediate policy change, but markets immediately started to price in rate hikes, indicating how sensitive investors are to any comments on rates. Today’s calendar is pretty quiet, with only Eurozone trade and construction data, leaving markets plenty of time to digest this week’s central bank decisions and upcoming policy risks, with the U.K. set to trigger Article 50 and official Brexit talks next week.

President Trump released his “skinny budget” for 2018: which it’s more a general blueprint and is hence, short on details. The 53 page document is about 1/3 that of President Obama’s, due in part to the fact he included only discretionary items. As expected, defense spending was boosted by $54 bln, but the overall impact will be neutralized by reductions in a number of agencies, including cuts of 31% from the EPA and a 29% from the State Department. Ag and Labor Departments were also trimmed by 21%.

U.S. reports: revealed remarkably strong Philly Fed component data and another super-tight initial claims reading. U.S. March Philly Fed manufacturing index fell 10.5 points to 32.8 after surging 19.7 points higher to 43.3 in February (which was the strongest print since January 1984). But, key components were all higher. U.S. housing starts rebounded 3.0% to 1.288 mln in February after tumbling 1.9% to 1.251 mln in January. The 2k U.S. initial claims drop to 241k in the second week of March trimmed the 20k bounce to 243k, from the 44-year low of 223k in the week of President’s Day. That brought the 4-week average up to 237.25k from 236.5k. Continuing claims dropped 30k to 2,030k in the March 4 week after slipping 4k to 2,060k previously. Ongoing tightness in claims, combined with today’s robust Philly Fed headline and component data, signals upside risk to the March jobs report. Claims remain well below the 263k average in 2016 and the 6-month high of 275k as recently as mid-December.

UK: BoE left the repo rate at 0.25% and QE unchanged, as widely expected, though one of the nine members of the Monetary Policy Committee, Kirsten Forbes, dissented in favour of a 25bp rate hike. The minutes retained the view that “some modest withdrawal of monetary stimulus” over the next three years still applied, but stressed that, despite slowing wage growth and consumer spending, that “some members noted that it would take relatively little further upside news on the prospects of activity or inflation for them to consider that a more immediate reduction in policy support might be warranted.” The MPC still retained its overall neutral stance, noting that additional policy support could yet be warranted if growth lagged behind projections made in the BoE’s February Inflation Report. Sterling rallied on the unexpected vote split and hawkish twist in the minutes.

Main Macro Events Today

• G20 Meetings – G20 meetings will be held today and tomorrow in Germany.

• Prelim UoM Consumer – The first release on Michigan Consumer Sentiment for March is out today and should post a slight headline increase to 97.1 after February’s dip to 96.3 from 98.5 in January. The various measures of consumer confidence have been hitting a string of new post-recession highs since the election but have begun to plateau.

• US Industrial Production – February industrial production data is expected to post 0.3% increase following the 0.3% drop in January and the 0.6% increase in December.

• Canadian Manufacturing Sales – Manufacturing Sales expected to reveal a 0.4% m/m loss in January after the 2.3% bounce in December.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 20th March 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 20th March 2017.

FX News Today

Some cracks appeared in the global divergence trade following repeated reports that the ECB is clandestinely mulling the possibility of hiking the deposit rate before ending QE. In contrast, the first Fed hike of 2017 was well discounted in advance and accompanied by the “gradualist” mantra and one dovish dissent. A hawkish dissenter from steady BoE policy emerged as well, riling up the bond markets. Into this mix, the G20 over the weekend attempted to spackle over yawning differences on global trade and protectionism; omitting references to open, free or rules-based trade, rejection of protectionism and climate change financing in its communique’.

United States: In the U.S., economic calendar starts slowly and then peters out from there, with the Chicago Fed National Activity Index out (Monday), followed by the current account (Tuesday), whose gap is seen widening to -$131.4 bln in Q4 from -$113.0 bln. MBA mortgage market data picked up last week into the teeth of higher rates (Wednesday). FHFA home prices and February existing home sales are on tap as well, seen easing back 0.7% from a solid 3.3% January gain. Initial jobless claims may rebound 6k to 247k (Thursday) for the March 18 week. The week winds down with durable goods orders estimated to rise 1.4% in February vs 2.0% in January.

Canada: In Canada, the February CPI and Federal budget compete for top billing this week. The CPI (Friday) is expected to rise 0.1% m/m in February after the 0.9% surge in January. Wholesale sales (Monday) are seen rising 0.5% in January after the 0.7% gain in December. The Federal budget is scheduled for Wednesday. The government has pitched this budget as more of a preliminary plan than is usually the case, given uncertainty over the Trump trade agenda. Hence, the fall fiscal update could see lager than usual changes as the projected impact of the known U.S. trade policy can be included. According to media reports, Budget 2017 will provide details on the billions in spending outlined in the 2016 budget, as opposed to introducing new spending initiatives. The Fall update projected a C$25.1 bln deficit in FY2016/17, deepening to C$27.8 bln in FY2017/18. Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Schembri speaks to the Greater Vancouver Board of Trade (Tuesday).

Europe: The focus is to the data calendar, which this week includes the preliminary round of March PMI readings. Brexit talks are also back in focus, although reports suggest that U.K. PM May will wait until the last week of March before officially triggering Article 50 that starts divorce proceedings. EU leaders are set to meet for a regular summit on March 25. Eurozone Finance Ministers meet Monday, with Greece a perpetual topic and ECBspeak from Weidmann, Lautenschlaeger and Nouy is likely to confirm that while the official easing bias remains in place. Tthe official ECB bulletin (Thursday) will confirm the official line that rates are expected to remain at current or lower levels for an extended period of time and well past the QE schedule.The calendar also has Eurozone current account and BoP numbers as well as German PPI inflation, with the latter expected to confirm that base effects from energy prices feed through the product chain. Supply includes a German 10-year Bund offering on Wednesday.

UK: Sterling has been volatile over the last several weeks, and more of the same seems likely as the UK heads into the business end of the Brexit process, with the government expected to invoke Article 50 by the end of the month. PM May has signaled that she is prepared to call “no deal” if the leaving terms are unsatisfactory and new trading terms can’t be agreed upon within the two year negotiation period, which in the event would mean the UK adopting WTO trading rules and taking a likely hit on its terms-of-trade position as a consequence. The UK data calendar brings February inflation (Tuesday) and February official retail sales data (Thursday), along with the March CBI surveys on industrial trends (Tuesday) and distributive sales (Thursday).

Japan: Japan will take Monday off for the Vernal Equinox Day holiday. Trade data are always interesting for the island nation and the February report (Wednesday) is expected to flip to a JPY 700.0 bln surplus, versus the JPY 1,087.6 bln deficit in January, thanks in part to the slightly weaker yen. The January all-industry index (Wednesday) is penciled in at -0.2% m/m from -0.3% previously. BoJ minutes to the January 30-31 policy meeting are also on tap (Wednesday).

Australia: Australia’s calendar has the Reserve Bank of Australia’s minutes to the March meeting (Tuesday). The Bank left policy unchanged, as expected, but the door remains open for an easing later this year as inflation remains below target. Economic data is in short supply, with the Q4 house price index due Tuesday.

New Zealand: New Zealand’s calendar is highlighted by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand meeting (Thursday). The February trade (Friday) balance is expected to shift to a NZ$200 mln surplus in February from the -NZ$285 mln deficit in January.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 20th March 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 20th March 2017.

FX News Today

Some cracks appeared in the global divergence trade following repeated reports that the ECB is clandestinely mulling the possibility of hiking the deposit rate before ending QE. In contrast, the first Fed hike of 2017 was well discounted in advance and accompanied by the “gradualist” mantra and one dovish dissent. A hawkish dissenter from steady BoE policy emerged as well, riling up the bond markets. Into this mix, the G20 over the weekend attempted to spackle over yawning differences on global trade and protectionism; omitting references to open, free or rules-based trade, rejection of protectionism and climate change financing in its communique’.

United States: In the U.S., economic calendar starts slowly and then peters out from there, with the Chicago Fed National Activity Index out (Monday), followed by the current account (Tuesday), whose gap is seen widening to -$131.4 bln in Q4 from -$113.0 bln. MBA mortgage market data picked up last week into the teeth of higher rates (Wednesday). FHFA home prices and February existing home sales are on tap as well, seen easing back 0.7% from a solid 3.3% January gain. Initial jobless claims may rebound 6k to 247k (Thursday) for the March 18 week. The week winds down with durable goods orders estimated to rise 1.4% in February vs 2.0% in January.

Canada: In Canada, the February CPI and Federal budget compete for top billing this week. The CPI (Friday) is expected to rise 0.1% m/m in February after the 0.9% surge in January. Wholesale sales (Monday) are seen rising 0.5% in January after the 0.7% gain in December. The Federal budget is scheduled for Wednesday. The government has pitched this budget as more of a preliminary plan than is usually the case, given uncertainty over the Trump trade agenda. Hence, the fall fiscal update could see lager than usual changes as the projected impact of the known U.S. trade policy can be included. According to media reports, Budget 2017 will provide details on the billions in spending outlined in the 2016 budget, as opposed to introducing new spending initiatives. The Fall update projected a C$25.1 bln deficit in FY2016/17, deepening to C$27.8 bln in FY2017/18. Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Schembri speaks to the Greater Vancouver Board of Trade (Tuesday).

Europe: The focus is to the data calendar, which this week includes the preliminary round of March PMI readings. Brexit talks are also back in focus, although reports suggest that U.K. PM May will wait until the last week of March before officially triggering Article 50 that starts divorce proceedings. EU leaders are set to meet for a regular summit on March 25. Eurozone Finance Ministers meet Monday, with Greece a perpetual topic and ECBspeak from Weidmann, Lautenschlaeger and Nouy is likely to confirm that while the official easing bias remains in place. Tthe official ECB bulletin (Thursday) will confirm the official line that rates are expected to remain at current or lower levels for an extended period of time and well past the QE schedule.The calendar also has Eurozone current account and BoP numbers as well as German PPI inflation, with the latter expected to confirm that base effects from energy prices feed through the product chain. Supply includes a German 10-year Bund offering on Wednesday.

UK: Sterling has been volatile over the last several weeks, and more of the same seems likely as the UK heads into the business end of the Brexit process, with the government expected to invoke Article 50 by the end of the month. PM May has signaled that she is prepared to call “no deal” if the leaving terms are unsatisfactory and new trading terms can’t be agreed upon within the two year negotiation period, which in the event would mean the UK adopting WTO trading rules and taking a likely hit on its terms-of-trade position as a consequence. The UK data calendar brings February inflation (Tuesday) and February official retail sales data (Thursday), along with the March CBI surveys on industrial trends (Tuesday) and distributive sales (Thursday).

Japan: Japan will take Monday off for the Vernal Equinox Day holiday. Trade data are always interesting for the island nation and the February report (Wednesday) is expected to flip to a JPY 700.0 bln surplus, versus the JPY 1,087.6 bln deficit in January, thanks in part to the slightly weaker yen. The January all-industry index (Wednesday) is penciled in at -0.2% m/m from -0.3% previously. BoJ minutes to the January 30-31 policy meeting are also on tap (Wednesday).

Australia: Australia’s calendar has the Reserve Bank of Australia’s minutes to the March meeting (Tuesday). The Bank left policy unchanged, as expected, but the door remains open for an easing later this year as inflation remains below target. Economic data is in short supply, with the Q4 house price index due Tuesday.

New Zealand: New Zealand’s calendar is highlighted by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand meeting (Thursday). The February trade (Friday) balance is expected to shift to a NZ$200 mln surplus in February from the -NZ$285 mln deficit in January.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 21st March 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 21st March 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets traded mixed, with Hang Seng and CSI continuing to outperform as China earnings optimism fuels Chinese stocks in Hong Kong. Japan closed in negative territory after yesterday’s holiday. U.S. stock futures are moving higher, while the FTSE 100 future is slightly in negative territory. Concerns about a new wave of global protectionism continue to linger after the frosty G20 meeting. Bundesbank President Weidmann tried to play down the rift, saying that the view was shared that open markets and a free market-based economy are key for prosperity, but added that the meeting showed that “there are still some discussions ahead” regarding the role of trade. Oil prices are up on the day. The European calendar hots up today, with U.K. inflation data for February, as well as public finance data and the CBI Industrial Trends survey for March.

Fedspeak: Both Fed’s Evans and Harker mulled the possibility of 3 hikes in 2017, while Kashkari defended his dovish dissent, warning that nothing had really changed economically and inflation remained below target. Philly Fed’s Harker said in a CNBC interview that raising rates last week was prudent. Harker is a voter this year and is on the hawkish end of the hawk-dove spectrum. While he’s in line with the 3 rate hikes this year, he said there’s no real urgency right now. He noted the Fed is getting closer to its 2% inflation goal and prices are moving in the right direction. He expects there could be some overshoot of the target, but didn’t want to get behind the curve. On the other hand, Fed’s Kashkari said inflation is stuck at 1.7% as measured by core PCE y/y and the jobless rate has steadied near 4.7% as the labor force participation rate goes up. He’s defending his dovish dissent last week and said that nothing has really changed over the past several years, which justifies letting the economy run. Lastly Chicago Fed’s Evans said the economy is on a pretty good course. He said this is a challenging period of time, noting the potential for a big stimulus boost to growth. He suggested that would pose a risk to the FOMC given the economy is close to full capacity. He also said the lower pace of capital expansion could reflect lower trend growth.

President Trump: As Reuters reported: “President Donald Trump said last night that he wants to add a provision to the Republican healthcare plan that would lower prescription drug costs through a “competitive bidding process.” “We’re going to have a great competitive bidding process. Medicine prices will be coming way down. We’re trying to add it to this bill and if we can’t, we’ll have it right after,” he said, referring to Republican legislation to replace Obamacare that is due to be voted on in the House of Representatives as early as Thursday. However, the appearance of both the NSA and FBI Directors on Capital Hill snatched most of the media focus, after Comey confirmed FBI is investigating Russian interference in the election and any Trump Campaign complicity, while denying any veracity of wiretapping claims and mulling press leaks.

Main Macro Events Today

• UK Inflation Data – CPI expected to lift to a new cycle high of 2.1% y/y from 1.8% y/y in February, which would be the first-time inflation has been either at or above the BoE’s mandated 2.0% target since December 2013. February Core CPI is expected to come in relatively more benign, at 1.7% y/y.

• BoE Gov. Carney – BOE Governor Mark Carney is going to give a speech at 10:35 GMT in London.

• Canadian Retail Sales – January is typically a solid month for retail sales, and expected to fit the usual pattern with a 1.5% gain in total sales and a 1.3% rise in the ex-autos aggregate.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 22nd March 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 22nd March 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets headed south. The Trumpflation already started to stall in the U.S. yesterday and uncertainty about U.S. policies going ahead have seen U.S. markets heading south, which also pulled down European markets and now Asia, where the Japan saw the biggest slump in stocks since the U.S. presidential election. The Nikkei closed with a 2.13% loss and the break of key technical levels has raised fears of further swings ahead. The ASX was down 1.56% at the close, the Hang Seng is currently down -1.4%. U.S. and U.K. stock futures are also firmly in negative territory, so there is no end to the sell off in sight so far. Against that background, Bunds, which already started to climb higher in after hour trade yesterday, are likely to gain further. The European calendar today is pretty empty, with only Eurozone current account and BoP numbers, and is unlikely to have much of an impact.

Fedspeak: KC Fed hawk George said the Fed is moving into a “critical time”. She’s worried the very low interest rates can lead to imbalances. She somewhat squashed worries over the balance sheet normalization sooner rather than later, noting that reducing it probably won’t happen quickly. Shrinking the Fed’s portfolio is going to entail a lot of discussion and analysis. Yields are at the lows yesterday after she didn’t take an overly hawkish stance, nor try to dissuade the Treasury market from its more bullish leaning after the FOMC didn’t meet fears of a more aggressive rate hike posture with last Wednesday’s results. Fed dovish dissenter Kashkari was Tweeting freely in an #AskNeel session on Twitter. He said: “Need to factor in lower neutral real rates. Economy not growing nearly as fast as anyone would like. But higher rates won’t help” in response to a question about Yellen saying the economy is doing well. At the Bank of England NY Fed’s Dudley spoke on bank ethics. He said that there still was a “long way to go” on reforming bank culture in wake of the financial crisis and again called for revamped bank performance incentives after the Wells Fargo scandal. He didn’t discuss monetary policy.

Canada: Canada retail sales surged 2.2% in January after the revised 0.4% drop in December (was -0.5%). The ex-autos sales aggregate grew 1.7% in January following a revised 0.5% decline (was -0.3%). Growth in the total and ex-autos sales aggregate exceeded expectations. Higher prices played a large role in boosting total and ex-autos sales values, as expected. Retail sales volumes grew a less pronounced, but still robust, 1.3% in January after the 1.0% decline in December. Yields extended gains on the robust retail sales report, which continued the recent run of firm data from Canada. Additionally, yesterday Deputy Governor Schembri spoke to the Greater Vancouver Board of Trade, with remarks published on the BoC’s website. He stated that: “it is still too early to assume the worst is behind us” in terms of economic growth. He acknowledged that Q4 GDP overshot the Bank ‘s projections, but said “…a more detailed analysis suggests scope for cautious.” Overall, Schembri’s prepared remarks have keep the Bank’s dovish tone well intact, despite recent upbeat data.

Main Macro Events Today

• US Crude Oil Inventories – Expected to rise to 1.9M from -0.2M last week.

• NZD Rate Statement – The Reserve Bank of New Zealand meeting is late today. RBNZ expected to hold the OCR steady at 1.75%. The RBNZ held steady in February, after the expected easings in November and August.

• US Existing Home Sales – February existing home sales should reveal to 5.580 mln after a 3.3% increase to 5.690 mln in January which marked a new recent high.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 23rd March 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 23rd March 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Global stock markets started to stabilise yesterday and this continued in Asia overnight, with the Nikkei managing a 0.23% gain at the close, while the ASX was up 0.41%. Gains are modest so far compared to the rout of recent days and investors remain cautious on Trump’s policies. U.S. and U.K. stock futures are also moving higher, which should see bond futures correcting some of yesterday’s gains. FTSE 100 underperformed and Gilts outperformed yesterday after news of the London attack and seems to be bouncing back again. The calendar fills up today with French business confidence numbers, as well as German and Eurozone consumer confidence and U.K. retail sales data alongside the CBI distributive trade survey.

RBNZ held the policy rate at 1.75%, as expected. Low for long remains in place, with Wheeler saying “Monetary Policy will remain accommodative for a considerable period.” But a dovish bias remain in place, as the Governor concluded that “Numerous uncertainties remain, particularly in respect to the international outlook, and policy will need to adjust accordingly. No change in rates is expected through to year end. USDNZD trades at 0.7050 from an overnight low of 0.7024.

US Data: The 3.7% U.S. existing home sales drop to a surprisingly weak 5.48 mln February clip trimmed the January pop to an unrevised 5.69 mln cycle-high from rates of 5.51 mln in December and a prior cycle-high 5.60 mln in November, as mild weather failed to visibly lift February sales. A 0.5% median price rise to $228,400 trimmed the seasonal downtrend from the $247,600 all-time high last June, while inventories rose 4.2% to a still-lean 1.75 mln. We assume a 3% sales rise in Q1 after a solid 13% rate in Q4 but a 7% contraction rate in Q3. Sales have adhered to an erratic uptrend since 2010. Existing home sales are on track for a 5% growth clip in 2017, following a 3.9% rise in 2016 and a 6.5% rise in 2015. We have cyclical increases of 59% for existing home sales and 39% for pending home sales, versus larger cyclical gains of 106% for new home sales, 169% for housing starts, and 136% for permits.

EU must prepare for U.K. walking out of Brexit talks without a deal. Bloomberg reported that EU officials are calling on the bloc to prepare for the possibility of Brexit without a deal, citing a private memo and people familiar with the discussions. The official EU negotiator Barnier reportedly told a meeting of EU Commissioners that some Conservative politicians in the U.K. are already trying to undermine efforts to find common ground. May is set to trigger Article 50 and start official divorce talks on March 29 and a key stumbling block are likely to prove the final bill to cover the U.K. outstanding U.K. liabilities, as EU officials insist the U.K. “must settle the accounts” when it leaves, stressing that it won’t be asked “to pay a single euro for something they have not agreed to as a member”. Barnier stressed that that a failure to come to an agreement would have “serious consequences”, not just for citizens living in the EU, but also supply problems for companies, air-traffic disruption, tougher custom controls and no more circulating of nuclear material. U.K. officials meanwhile question the legality of the bill and May has repeatedly said that “no deal for Britain is better than a bad deal for Britain”.

Main Macro Events Today

• FOMC Chair Yellen Speech – It’s unlikely she’ll try to alter the tone from last week’s FOMC result, where the Fed’s stance wasn’t as hawkish as the markets had expected. If she addresses policy, she will probably reiterate the gradual nature of the trajectory. Also on tap are the dovish dissenter Kashkari, who will discuss education and late in the day, the more hawkish voter Kaplan will speak on the economic outlook.

• US New Home Sales – February new home sales data is out later and should reveal a 2.7% increase for the headline to a 570k (median 565k) pace following a 3.7% increase to a 555k pace in January. The NAHB composite for February declined to 65 from 67 and the MBA purchase index is down 4.6% for the month.

• UK Retail Sales – Expectations are for a rise to 0.45 from a poor -0.35 in February and a rather dismal -2.1% report for January. The consumer has been keeping the UK economy ticking along despite of Brexit concerns – figure watched with keen interest for impacts on sterling.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Stuart Cowell
Senior Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 24th March 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 24th March 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Key Asian stock markets moved higher despite the delay of Trump’s health care bill was delayed, which will now face an uncertain vote today. With the Dollar advancing and the Yen falling back the Nikkei managed a 0.9% gain, and the ASX closed up 0.8%, but the Hang Seng is in negative territory, The Shanghai composite is little changed and Taiwan’s index was down together with the Kopsi while Southeast Asian benchmarks were mixed. U.S. markets closed in the red yesterday, while European markets managed a late rally, and U.S. and U.K. stock futures are moving higher as investors await the final vote. In Europe, the calendar has preliminary Eurozone PMI readings for March, the U.K. has BBA mortgage approvals and EU leaders (minus U.K. PM May) will gather for a summit to celebrate the 60th anniversary of the Rome Treaties.

House delayed yesterday’s planned vote the healthcare bill, possibly until next week, according to news reports. Leadership has told members to be available today, however, in case a vote can be slated. Wall Street closed with modest losses, having unwound early gains as the prospects for the bills passage today dimmed through the day. The stock market is likely to remain in wait and see mode today, rather than stage a major selloff, given the possibility for a vote over the weekend or next week. Ways and Means Chairman Brady said (in CNBC interview) no one has walked away yet.

U.S. reports revealed solid February new home sales despite weakness in Wednesday’s existing home sales report, alongside a 15k pop in initial claims to an elevated 258k in the BLS survey week after annual revisions that mostly lifted levels of claims since November, leaving a net negative signal for the day’s data overall. For new home sales, a 592k rate beat estimates, though mild weather failed to lift sales above the 622k cycle-high rate in July of 2016.

UK February retail sales smashed expectations, rising 1.7% m/m and by 3.7%, up on the respective median forecasts for 0.4% and 2.6% growth. A rebound had been expected following two consecutive months of sub-par sales, though the magnitude was even greater than foreseen. January data were revised lower, however, to -0.5% m/m from -0.3% m/m initially reported, and to 1.0% y/y growth from 1.5% y/y. The ONS stats office advices caution, highlighting that the underlying three-month view shows sale in decline as a consequence of the weakness in December and January. After the strong retail sales report, out of the UK, cable has lifted back above 1.2500, with the pound finding support on dips. Additionally, BoE MPC’s Broadbent that UK exporters are benefiting from a temporary sweet spot, with the pound weaker following the Brexit vote but with trading terms remaining unchanged and with global growth picking up.

Main Macro Events Today

• Eurozone PMI – Eurozone Flash Manufacturing and Service PMI are out today and expected both to show a slight difference from February at 55.3 from 55.4 and 55.5 respectively.

• UK Durable Goods – February durable goods expected to see orders up 1.1% compared to respective January figures which had orders up 2.0%.

• Canadian CPI – The CPI is expected to rise 0.2% m/m in February after the 0.9% surge in January. On an annual comparable basis, CPI is stay unchanged to a 2.1%.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 27th March 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 27th March 2017.

FX News Today

Brexit comes into view now that the drama over the ACA was ended on Friday when the bill was canceled to avoid a “no” vote, as neither Trump nor Ryan could muster sufficient support. Triggering Article 50 on Brexit shouldn’t have any immediate consequences as this just kicks off the negotiation process. Meanwhile, investors will remain focused on the U.S. political process and investors will have to assess the possible damage from the ACA defeat, and whether it endangers the rest of the Trump agenda, or instead if it will allow the president to turn his full attention to tax reform, deregulation, and fiscal stimulus, policies that are more important to the markets.

United States: U.S. markets this week will try to assess the consequences of the ACA defeat and what it means for the future of the Trump agenda. Wall Street did manage to pare losses into Friday’s close after the ACA bill was pulled, rather than be put up to a certain “no” vote, as President Trump indicated he’d move on to tax reform, deregulation, and stimulus. As for data, housing and manufacturing reports dominate, but income, consumption and confidence numbers should be more market moving. The March Dallas Fed’s manufacturing index opens the week’s calendar (Monday). March consumer confidence (Tuesday) is expected to drop to 114.0 after the 3.2-point jump to a cycle high of 114.8 in February. The index has been on the rise since November. Also on tap Tuesday are the January Case-Shiller home price report and the Richmond Fed index. February pending home sales are due Wednesday. The third report on Q4 GDP (Thursday) should show a downward revision to a 1.8% pace from the 1.9% prior rate. February personal income (Friday) should post a 0.4% gain, with consumption edging up 0.2%, the same as in January. The Chicago PMI is also due (Friday.

Canada: Bank of Canada Governor Poloz (Tuesday) speaks on “Canada’s economic history,” which will be followed by a press conference. January GDP (Friday) is expected to expand 0.3% m/m after the 0.3% gain in December, as Canada’s economy maintains momentum. The industrial product price index (Thursday) is seen rising 0.1% m/m in February on the heels of the 0.4% bounce in January. The CFIB’s Business Barometer (Thursday) will provide a reading on the sentiment of small and medium sized firms in March.

Europe: Not much will be happening this week. The U.K. will officially notify EU officials, who in turn will acknowledge the request, before tasking negotiators with drafting guidelines, which then will have to be agreed upon by the remaining EU members before talks can officially start. With Easter coming up and the French election also on the agenda, and after already waiting 9 months, EU officials don’t seem inclined to rush anything now. The first Brexit summit is reportedly scheduled for a month after the U.K officially triggers Article 50, but the key phase could well only start in October, when the German election is also out of the way.This week’s pretty full calendar focuses on March confidence reading as well as preliminary March inflation data. After the surprisingly strong PMI readings and the improvement in preliminary Eurozone consumer confidence, an improvement in the German Ifo Business Climate index today is expected to 111.2 from 111.0 in the previous month. PMI readings suggest that the recovery is in the Eurozone is not just strengthening but broadening, hence ESI Economic Confidence (Wednesday) expected to rise to 108.2 from 108.0 in the previous month. We will see German HICP inflation on Thursday. This expected to leave overall Eurozone HICP (Friday) at 1.8% y/y down from 2.0% y/y in February. The calendar also has February retail sales data and import price inflation from Germany as well as French consumer spending and PPI data.

UK: This will be the week that the UK government will finally invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty to formerly begin the provisional two-year negotiation period to agree on divorcing terms with the EU. The day will be Wednesday, March 29th. Things won’t happen quickly given the bureaucracy of the 27-member EU (excluding the UK), and, illustrating this, President of the EU Council, Tusk, said last week that members will hold a Brexit summit on April 29 (which is a week after the first round of the French presidential election). The calendar this week features the third estimate on Q4 GDP (Friday), expected to be reaffirmed at 0.7% q/q and 2.0% y/y growth. March data on consumer confidence (also Friday) and February lending figures from the BoE (Wednesday) are also due.

Japan: In Japan, the heavy data week will be important for the outlook as the fiscal year gets closer. Inflation, sales, and production numbers will be key. February services PPI (Monday) is expected to cool to 0.4% y/y from 0.5% y/y in January and December. February retail sales (Wednesday) are seen falling 1.5% after a 1.1% drop for larger retailers. That would be a 7th straight monthly decline. But, overall sales are projected rising 1.3% following the prior 1.0% gain. The remainder of releases are due Friday, starting with CPI. February housing starts and construction orders round out the calendar.

Australia: Australia’s calendar is sparse this week. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s Deputy Governor Debelle speaks at the FX Week Australia conference (Thursday). Private sector credit for February is due Friday.

New Zealand: February building permits are a lone highlight, due Friday. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand next meets on May 11.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 29th March 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 29th March 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: The rebound on global equity markets continued in Asia overnight, as a bounce in consumer confidence underpinned confidence in the U.S. economy and officials sounded more upbeat on tax reforms. Australia’s ASX led the way, while Japan trailed behind with a marginal gain, as the strong Yen undermines exporters and as more than 1.500 companies in the Topix traded without the right to their latest dividend. Oil prices extended their gain above USD 48 per barrel and U.S. and U.K. stock futures are also moving higher as global equity markets are heading for their fifth straight month of gains. The European calendar as German import price inflation at the start of the session, as well as Italian confidence data and U.K. lending data. May’s official Brexit announcement will be topping the headlines, however, as European officials increasingly fret about the risk of a hard Brexit.

U.S. reports revealed encouraging advance trade deficit figures for February with mixed inventory data that lifted our Q1 GDP estimate to 1.6% from 1.5%, following an assumed trimming of Q4 growth to 1.8% from 1.9%. The U.S. “soft” data continue to soar past the “hard” figures however, given a remarkable March surge in consumer confidence to a 16-year high of 125.6 from a 116.1 (was 114.8) prior high in February, alongside a Richmond Fed pop to a 7-year high of 22.0 in March with an ISM-adjusted rise to a 7-year high of 59.2 that included gains in every component but vender lead-time. The advance data showed a narrowing in the February trade gap for goods to $64.8 bln that implies a February drop in the goods and services trade deficit to $45.0 bln from a 5-year high of $48.5 bln in January. For inventories, we saw 0.4% February gains for both wholesalers and retailers.

Fedspeak: First speaker yesterday was Fed’s Chair Yellen, who did not comment on monetary policy or the economy in her prepared comments on “Addressing Workforce Development Challenges in Low-Income Communities.” She did note that while the U.S. job market overall has “improved markedly,” there remain pockets of “persistently high” unemployment rates. Dallas Fed’s Kaplan on the other hand said yesterday that Fed should be taking steps to raise rates patiently and gradually, following comments overnight in which he discussed winding down the balance sheet, no systemic risk, and meeting the dual mandate. He doesn’t want to raise rates so aggressively that you “jolt the economy into a slowdown.” Another speaker was Fed VC Fischer in a CNBC interview, who said the Fed is watching political developments closely. The healthcare debate might change his internal calculus, but it won’t have much net impact on the FOMC. He thinks it’s sensible for the Committee to have a wait-and-see approach on fiscal policy for now. Last Fed’s speaker yesterday was Fed’s George who said that consumers are feeling more confident, in her keynote address on “The U.S. Economy and Monetary Policy” at the conference, Banking and the Economy: A Forum for Women in Banking. She noted she is not sure what fiscal policy will mean for the economy, and is yet not ready to put any numbers into her forecasts.

BoC’s Poloz said yesterday that the focus on downside risks is appropriate given that the economy is running below equilibrium. He said upside risks would be great, but downside risk are problem. It is his job in the current situation of focus on downside risk. If the economy was in equilibrium, the Bank would be equally concerned about both upside and downside risks. But we are not, he said, we are below equilibrium, so the Bank worries more about downside risks in this situation. As for the recent data, he said it is “Odd to forget about all those downside risks just because a few data points came in better than expected. We’ve had better than expected data points in the past three years.”

Main Macro Events Today

• Brexit Day – U.K. is finally ready to trigger Article 50 today, which will start the process to review a total of 20,833 laws and regulations that were in effect in the EU and Britain at the beginning of the year and that will now have to be reviewed or replaced. Environmental, health and consumer protection as well as legal acts on workers’ rights and standards for social welfare systems will also be under review and in theory that means more than 50 legislative texts each day to keep within the 2-year time frame.

• Donald Tusk – The president of European Council is going to give a press statement on the UK notification.

• Fedspeak – Fed’s Evans, the dovish voter, speaks on policy and the economy from Frankfurt. The non-voter Rosengren will address the economic outlook at the Economic Club of Boston. SF Fed’s Williams, a non-voter appears before the Forecasters Club of New York, and will discuss a sustained recovery.

• US Pending Home Sales – February pending home sales are due today and expected at 2.1% from -2.8% last month.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 30th March 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 30th March 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets were mostly down led by a sell off in Chinese shares amid tightening money supply. The CSI 300 is down -0.80% and the Hang Seng down 0.88%. Japanese share also traded lower, as the Trump administration pushes ahead with its reform agenda, while the Fed contemplates the number of further cuts this year. The Yen weakened and crude managed to held on to yesterday’s gains and Australia’s ASX managed to dodge the trend with a 0.39% gain, while U.K. and U.S. stock futures are also moving higher. Global equity indices remain at very high levels, but despite gains on FTSE 100 and DAX yesterday Bund and Gilt futures moved higher and further signs that the ECB is far from ready to change its dovish guidance underpinned Bund futures in after hour trade, which should continue to cap yields this morning, despite the expected rise in ESI economic sentiment, which should be compensated to a certain extend by the expected decline in German HICP inflation.

U.K. finally triggers Article 50, by handing yesterday the official divorce letter to Tusk. May said she hoped for negotiations to be constructive and respective, while calling for a comprehensive free trade agreement including financial services, which for the EU will continue to look like an attempt to heave the cake and eat it. And with EU officials calculating that there will have to be around 50 legislative texts to be reviewed every day if the U.K. aims to stick to the 2-year time frame, this is not going to be a smooth ride. Battle lines are being drawn up now and while the U.K. aims for parallel talks for future arrangements alongside the key points of divorce, her counterparts want to settle the divorce modalities first. For now though nothing much will change as the U.K. remains part of the EU at the moment, although many companies have already started to adjust their plans. The first EU Brexit summit will be in a months’ time and with the German election coming up and more administrative hurdles to clear it will be some time before negotiations start in earnest.

U.S. reports: Pending home sales surged 5.5% to 112.3 in February, sharply beating forecasts, after falling 2.8% to106.4 in January. This is the highest since last April. But, on an annual basis, sales are down 2.4% y/y versus the 2.7% pace previously. Regionally, sales were higher in all four areas covered, paced by an 11.4% gain in the Midwest, while the South rose 4.3%. The Northeast increased 3.4% last month, with the West up 3.1%. The dollar edged a touch higher after the stronger pending home sales outcome. Additionally, WTI crude rallied to $49.62 from $48.60 following the EIA inventory data which showed a 900k bbl rise in crude stocks.

Fed’s Rosengren said he favors a hike at every other FOMC meeting in 2017, which would make 4 tightenings. Though once a dove, Rosengren turned rather hawkish last year. He is not a voter this year. He sees both Fed’s mandates being met this year. He expects continued continuity at the FOMC despite upcoming changes. Rosengren in Bloomberg interview: a faster pace of normalization should be considered he said. So far the FOMC has been very gradual in its tightening, and that should be the base case. And 4 hikes this year would still be a more gradual clip than in the last tightening cycle. Growth of 2.2% to 2.3% this year is a reasonable forecast. The economy is in a much better place now, and where the Fed wants it to be, but he doesn’t want policy to get behind the curve. Additionally, Fed’s Williams wouldn’t rule out more than 3 hikes this year, given upside risks, according to the text of his speech on From Sustained Recovery to Sustainable Growth: What a Difference Four Years Makes before the Forecasters Club of New York. On the other hand, Fed dove Evans said he backs 1 or 2 more tightenings this year, in comments on “The Times They Are A-Changin’,” at an International Capital Markets conference. There wasn’t anything new in his remarks, however. He believes weaker data this quarter is likely to be transitory.

Main Macro Events Today

• EMU ESI – The ESI is expected to move higher, with our forecast for a rise to 108.2 from 108.0 coming with a risk to the upside after higher than expected PMIs and national surveys.

• US GDP & Unemployment Claims – The third release on Q4 GDP is out on today and should reveal a 2.0% headline, revised from 1.9% in both of the first two releases. The Unemployment claims expected to fall to 244K from 261K reported last week.

• German CPI – German HICP inflation expected to fall back to 2.0% y/y from 2.2%, while the Spanish rate, also due today, is expected to remain steady at 3.0%.

• Fedspeak – The more hawkish Kaplan, a voter, will take Q&A at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce’s capital markets summit. SF Fed’s Williams, a non-voter will speak at a learning Community event. Mester, a non-voting hawk, speaks on improvement to the payments system. NY Fed’s Dudley discusses financial conditions and monetary policy.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 31st March 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 31st March 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Stock markets mostly headed south in Asia overnight, with China’s CSI 300 outperforming, and managing a slight gain. The DAX managed to close slightly higher yesterday and the U.S. also consolidated modest gains, but the FTSE 100 closed down as Sterling strengthened and U.S. and UK. stock futures are also in the red after the losses on most Asian markets on the last trading day of the quarter. Markets continue to lack clear direction with corporate earnings and economic data underpinning optimism about the outlook for the second quarter, while politics remain a negative. The local calendar today as German jobless data, as well as Eurozone inflation data, with the latter expected to fall much more than originally expected, after German and Spanish numbers yesterday indicated that the later timing of Easter this year means prices for package holiday haven’t gone up yet, which is distorting the annual rate. The U.K. has house price data as well as the final reading of Q4 GDP. German retail sales and French consumer spending are also on the slate.

U.S. reports: revealed an upside surprise for GDP led by service consumption and a small 3k initial claims drop in the last week of March to 258k that largely sustained last week’s pop, leaving good news for the economy on net. For GDP, we still project 1.6% growth in Q1 before a stronger growth path in the 3%-area through Q2 and Q3. For claims, the path remains tight despite the rise over the past two weeks, and we would discount some volatility given this year’s late Easter, and the tight NSA claims readings of just 228k after a 225k BLS survey week reading, versus last year’s comparable readings of 231k and 236k in what was then the week of Good Friday.

Fed’s Kaplan reiterated 3 hikes is a good base case for this year. The hawkish Fed voter is participating in a Q&A session on monetary policy and the economy and at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, so the comments are rather wide ranging. He also said that rising confidence hasn’t translated into increased activity so far. The U.S.-Mexico relationship has led to a net increase in U.S. jobs. The weaker pound is helping act as a shock absorber for the U.K. economy. SF Fed’s Williams was mum on the economy and policy outlook in his prepared remarks as part of a panel discussion at a community event yesterday. Cleveland Fed hawk Mester supports further rate hikes, though not at each meeting, citing the sound U.S. economic expansion with the weak Q1 as largely transitory given residual seasonality in the data. She expects unemployment to remain below 5% for 2-years and reiterates her backing for beginning to trim bond holdings this year.

Main Macro Events Today

• Eurozone HICP – Eurozone inflation is seen coming in below expectations and could fall to just around 1.8%, below the ECB’s definition of price stability as below but close to 2%.

• UK GDP – Q4 GDP expected to be reaffirmed at 0.7% q/q and 2.0% y/y growth.

• US Personal Income – February personal income should post a 0.4% gain, with consumption edging up 0.2%, the same as in January. The Chicago PMI surged to 56.5 in March versus February’s 57.4.

• Canadian GDP – January GDP is expected to expand 0.3% m/m after the 0.3% gain in December.

• Fedspeak – The dovish dissenter Kashkari will take Q&A at a banking conference. NY Fed’s Dudley will be in Bloomberg, while MPC Member Haldane Speaks is going to speak at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 3rd April 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 3rd April 2017.

FX News Today

“Bulls make money, bears make money, but pigs get slaughtered” goes the old trading adage. However, Wall Street and longer dated Treasuries are mostly net higher on the quarter, having weathered the Fed rate hike and some uncertainties over the Trump agenda after the ACA failure. Confidence remains high heading into April, as reflected recent sentiment surveys, the labor market continues to strengthen, and manufacturing is improving further. Data will be in full swing this week and will help formulate outlooks for Q2. In Europe, intrigue will continue swirl around the ECB’s exit strategy. The opening stance on Brexit between the UK and EU predictably focused on a “Hard Brexit” by the latter, though negotiations won’t be start in earnest until after German elections in September.

United States: The U.S. economic calendar features the March jobs report Friday, which has suddenly come upon us again after sealing the deal on the March FOMC hike last month. March nonfarm payrolls are expected to increase by 200k vs 235k in February, with a 225k private payroll gain. Looking at the rest of the week, Markit PMI for manufacturing in March is due (Monday), along with March ISM manufacturing seen slipping to 57.0 from 57.7 and February construction spending expected to rise 0.8% vs -1.0%. The February trade deficit (Tuesday) is forecast to narrow to -$46.7 bln from -$48.5 bln, while MBA mortgage market report is due (Wednesday), accompanied by the March ADP employment report, which should post a 238k gain for the month, below the February figure of 298k. EIA energy inventories are also on tap. Initial jobless claims may retreat 14k to 244k (Thursday) for the April 1 week. In addition to the jobs report (Friday) will be the wholesale trade report and February consumer credit, expected to rebound to $18 bln vs $8.8 bln. FOMC minutes are due Wednesday from the FOMC’s March 14, 15 meeting that included the first rate hike of 2017. But the Fed also surprised with a less hawkish stance than was feared by the markets, especially with respect to the dot plot where the median estimate called for only two more tightenings in 2017, for a total of three.

Canada: A busy week begins with the BoC’s Outlook Survey (Monday), which expected to show increased optimism as the recovery maintains momentum. However, indicators of capacity should remain consistent with still ample spare capacity, while employment measures reflect ongoing slack in the labor market. The trade surplus (Tuesday) is projected to narrow to C$0.7 bln in February from C$0.8 bln in January. Building permit values (Thursday) are anticipated to grow 2.0% in February after the 5.4% gain in January. Employment (Friday) is seen rising 20.0k in March after the 15.3k gain in February. The unemployment rate is seen steady at 6.6%. Governor Poloz offered a cautious view of Canada’s economy, saying in effect that the recent few odd firm data point should not make us forget about the numerous downside risk surrounding the outlook for Canada’s economy. Hence, another run of firm data will not change our view that the Bank will hold policy steady at next week’s announcement (April 12) and though the first half of 2018. The Ivey PMI (Friday) is projected to improve to 57.0 in March from 55.0 in February.

Europe: The Brexit process has officially begun, but both sides have merely set down pretty much as-expected positions. For Eurozone markets, at least, the Brexit issue has been overshadowed by the conflicting voices coming out of the ECB council ahead of the April meeting. Draghi did leave the easing bias in place in March, but pressure to drop return to a more neutral stance is mounting as data suggests upside risks to Q1 GDP numbers. Draghi is still insisting that rates can go down further, national central bank heads continue to talk about tapering and the sequencing of exit steps. Draghi will have a chance to clarify the central bank’s stance when he speaks in Frankfurt on Tuesday and Thursday and the minutes of the March meeting (Thursday), should give some indication of the extent on the discussion on the forward guidance at the last meeting.Data releases this week include the final readings of March PMI surveys, with the manufacturing PMI (Monday) expected to be confirmed at 56.6 and the services PMI (Wednesday) at 56.6 Initial readings were better than anticipated and already pointed to an upside risk to Q1 GDP projections and German manufacturing orders (Thursday) and industrial production (Friday) for February will be watched carefully in that respect. The data calendar also has retail sales, German trade data and French production numbers.

UK: The focus will remain on the early stages of the Brexit process, though hard negotiations between the UK and the EU are not likely to start until after German elections in September. The data calendar this week is highlighted by the March PMI surveys. The manufacturing PMI (Monday) expected to come in with a headline reading of 54.9, up from 54.6. Improving global demand coupled with the benefits of post-Brexit vote sterling weakness is underpinning the sector. The services PMI (Wednesday) has us anticipating a near unchanged reading of 53.3 after 53.3 in the month prior. Industrial production for February is also due (Friday), which is expected to rise 0.2% m/m after the 0.4% m/m contraction in the previous month.

Japan: In Japan, the March Tankan report (Monday) is seen rising to 12 from 10 for large manufacturers, and to 20 from 18 for large non-manufacturers. March auto sales are also due Monday. March consumer confidence (Thursday) is forecast to improve to 43.5 from 43.1.

Australia: Australia’s calendar is busy this week, highlighted by the Reserve Bank of Australia’s meeting (Tuesday). RBA expected to hold rates steady at the accommodative 1.50% setting. Governor Lowe provides remarks at the Reserve Bank Board Dinner (Tuesday). Alex Heath, the Bank’s Head of Economic Analysis Department participates in a panel (Wednesday). Deputy Governor Debelle speaks on Recent Trends in Australian Capital Flow (Thursday). The slate of economic data is relatively busy this week. Retail sales (Monday) are expected to grow 0.4% m/m in February after an identical 0.4% rise in January. Building permits (Monday) are seen falling 2.0% in February after the 1.8% rise in January. ANZ job ads for March and the Melbourne Institute inflation index for March are also due on Monday. The February trade surplus (Tuesday) is projected to expand to A$2.5 bln from A$1.3 bln in January.

New Zealand: March QV house prices due Wednesday.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 4th April 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 4th April 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Bund futures extended yesterday’s gains in opening trade, as DAX futures head south in tandem with U.S. futures after a largely negative session in Asia, where China and Taiwan remained closed for a holiday. Ongoing Yen strength is hitting exports and the RBA’s policy announcement, which left rates unchanged did little to cheer up the ASX. Investors continue to hold back ahead of the meeting between U.S. and China and FOMC and ECB minutes as well as U.S. jobs data at the end of the week. And with the European data calendar very quiet, Draghi’s speech is the only thing that could shake up things.

U.S. reports: revealed firm readings for March ISM and February construction spending, though we’re also seeing a 4% March drop in vehicle sales that trimmed our Q1 GDP growth forecast to 1.2% from 1.3%. For the ISM, there was only a small March drop to 57.2 from a 30-month high of 57.7 in February, and the jobs index surged to a 6-year high of 58.9 from 54.2. Robust producer sentiment readings is allowing the ISM-adjusted average of the major surveys to sustain the 57 cycle-high from February, and this combined with other robust soft-data signals upside risk for our 220k March nonfarm payroll estimate as discussed in today’s commentary. For construction, a 0.8% February bounce after upward revisions beat estimates, with strength in new home construction and improvement that likely reflected mild weather, though with weakness in nonresidential construction and a January upward public construction revision that trimmed recent gyrations.

Fedspeak: Fed’s Harker repeated 3 rate hikes would be appropriate in 2017, in his prepared remarks on Privately Issued Digital Money “Won’t Drive Out” Existing Currencies, assuming things stay on track. But he said, there’s no need to rush. The tightening should be gradual in pace and incremental. Inflation is moving slowly but surely higher, while unemployment is at or near its natural rate. Harker is a voter this year, but these leanings suggest no urgency. Fed dove Dudley also had a speech yesterday. Mr. Dudley stuck to the script on student debt, which he sees as one potential headwind to economic growth that “could help lower the equilibrium Fed funds rate.” He views rising college costs and student debt burdens as potentially inhibiting U.S. upward income mobility, while overall student loan debt could hurt U.S. homeownership and consumer spending. Other than the tangential reference to the equilibrium Fed funds rate, there’s not much here for the markets to trade. See his “Remarks at the Economic Press Briefing on the Household Borrowing, Student Debt Trends and Homeownership, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City.”

Australia: The RBA left its cash rate at 1.50% and stuck with dovish guidance, as had been general expected following its April policy meeting. The statement by Governor Lowe noted improving global conditions, highlighting infrastructure spending and property construction in China, but noting that the domestic economy remains in transition following the end of the mining investment boom, with low wage growth persisting and underlying inflation seen rising only gradually. Lowe stuck with a focus on the Australian dollar, repeating that “an appreciating exchange rate would complicate” the economy’s transition phase. AUDJPY showing particularly sharp declines over the last couple of sessions. AUDJPY, which can be seen as a forex barometer of global risk appetite, is trading at levels last seen in early December. The RBA’s repetition of its desire to see the exchange rate remain a weaker level following its widely-expected decision to leave the cash rate at 1.50%, helped today weigh on the Aussies.

Main Macro Events Today

• UK Construction PMI – The Construction PMI has as anticipating an almost unchanged reading of 52.4 after 52.5 in the month prior.

• ECB – ECB President Draghi will speak in Frankfurt where he will have a chance to clarify the central bank’s stance.

• US Trade Balance – February trade data expected to post a 7.2% improvement to a -$44.9 bln for the month from -$48.5 bln in January. The advance data on goods and service trade showed an improvement with that deficit narrowing to -$64.8 bln from -$68.8 bln in January.

• Canadian Trade Balance – The trade report, expected to show a slight erosion in the surplus to C$0.7 bln in February from C$0.8 bln in January. Energy exports are seen improving, as crude oil prices were modestly higher in February while natural gas prices were nearly flat on a month average basis.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 5th April 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 5th April 2017.

FX News Today

U.S. reports: China and Twaian were leading Asian markets higher after returning from holidays. Elsewhere gains were more muted and the Hang Seng is slightly in the red, as investors eye the Trump-Xi meeting. Bets on potential gains from the development of a so-called economic zone in Hebei province helped to lift China, while benchmarks in Japan and Australia fluctuated as currency advances weighted on exporters FTSE 100 futures are higher, but U.S. futures are in the red. Oil prices are up on the front end WTI future is trading at USD 51.38 per barrel. Released overnight the U.K. BRC shop price index was in line with expectations. The European data calendar still has final services PMI readings for the Eurozone, as well as the U.K. services PMI. Eurozone officials are once again trying to hammer out a deal with Greece that will allow the payment of the next aid tranche.

US reports: revealed stronger than expected trade deficit data and factory goods figures that closely tracked assumptions, leaving a net boost to our Q1 GDP growth estimate to 1.5% from 1.2%, after Q4 growth of 2.1%. For the trade deficit, we saw a February narrowing to $43.6 bln from a 5-year high of $48.2 bln, leaving a gap that was $1.4 bln narrower than indicated by the “advance” trade report after a $0.3 bln narrowing in January. For factory goods, the data matched estimates with lean February nondurable increases of 0.2% for shipments and orders and 0.1% for inventories. We saw only tiny tweaks in the durables data for orders, shipments, equipment and inventories that slightly lifted most levels.

ECB’s Liikanen: Strong monetary support still needed. The Governing Council member told Germany’s Handelsblatt, that “strong monetary support is still needed”, as the improvements seen so far are not big enough to “fundamentall” change the central bank’s guidance. Liikanen admitted that there were discussions at the last meeting and “there are a lot of opinions in the Governing Council”, adding that the statement did notice some improvements and tweaked some parts of the forward guidance, but added that the ECB “emphasized that interest rates will remain low beyond the end of asset purchases”. According to Liikanen that was “undisputed” although “there were discussions about what is meant by the words ‘current or lower levels’. The comments highlight the increasingly divergent views at the ECB as the central bank is starting to think about exit strategies and a phasing out of QE.

Canada: Canada’s February trade puts a damper on the Q1 GDP outlook, which was riding high after the stunning 0.6% m/m surge in January GDP lifted prospects for Q1 GDP to the 3.5% area. But the February trade balance sets up a sizable drag on Q1 growth from net exports. USDCAD revealed little immediate reaction to the twin Canada/U.S. trade reports, where the U.S. deficit narrowed more than expected, and the expected Canadian surplus turned to a deficit. The pairing has since rallied to new three-week highs of 1.3456 however, even as oil prices move to session highs near $50.70. The Canada trade report has thrown cold water on expectations for Q1 GDP, apparently to the detriment of the CAD.

Main Macro Events Today

• FOMC – FOMC minutes are due today from the FOMC’s March 14, 15 meeting that included the first-rate hike of 2017.

• UK Service PMI – The services PMI has us anticipating a near unchanged reading of 53.3 after 53.3 in the month prior.

• EU Service PMI – The Eurozone services PMI expected to stay unchanged at 56.5, while Germany’s expected to stay unchanged as well at 55.6.

• ADP Employment & ISM Non-Manuf. PMI – The MBA mortgage market report will be released today, accompanied by the March ADP employment report, which should post a 187k gain for the month, below the February figure of 298k. Markit services PMI are due, alongside ISM Non-Manufacturing index seen easing to 57.0 in March vs 57.6.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 6th April 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 6th April 2017.

FX News Today

U.S. reports: Bund futures moved higher in after hour trade yesterday after the Fed minutes showed that the Fed discussed scaling back its balance sheet later in the year, which knocked U.S. stocks off highs and weighed on markets in Asia. The Nikkei is down -1.45%, ASX and Hang Seng is also in the red as are U.K. stock futures. The DAX already underperformed yesterday and is likely to continue to head south against that background, which will underpin European bond futures and keep a lid on yields. Investors also remain cautious ahead of the Trump Xi meeting. In Europe, the ECB will release its minutes and ECB President Draghi will speak at the opening of a conference, with markets looking for clues on the state of the debate on the future of asset purchases and the assessment of Nowotny’s call to hike the deposit rate ahead of the end of QE. Data releases include Swiss inflation data and Eurozone retail and construction PMIs.

US reports: 263k March ADP rise beat 187k estimation, following a trimming in the February ADP rise to 245k (was 298k) that narrowed the gap to the 227k private payroll increase in that month. There was a surprisingly large 82k March goods employment gain with outsized increases of 49k for construction and 30k for factories that explained the March overshoot, alongside a 4k rise for mining and an expected 181k service employment gain. The ADP figures overshot private payrolls by a whopping 71k in February, after overshoots of 25k in January, 3k in December, 38k in November, and 15k in October to leave an average overshoot since the October methodology change of 30k, hence diminishing the significance of today’s 38k overshoot of our March nonfarm payroll estimates. Additionally,the U.S. ISM-NMI drop to a 5-month low of 55.2 reversed the February climb to a 16-month high of 57.6 in February from 56.5 in January, while declines in the employment and new order components allowed a drop in the ISM-adjusted reading to a 7-month low of 53.9 from a 16-month high of 56.5 in February and 54.8 in January.

FOMC minutes: “most” participants could see a change in the reinvestment policy later in the year, but views were mixed on how and when the changes would occur. The minutes to the March 14, 15 FOMC meeting also indicated “many” emphasized that shrinking the size of the balance sheet should be done in a “passive and predictable manner.” Also, both Treasuries and MBS should be a part of the reinvestment changes. But, there was also discussion of costs and benefits of phasing out or ceasing all at once the reinvestment of principal. Meanwhile, on interest rates, nearly all officials thought the U.S. was at full employment. Overall economic risks were generally balanced, but many saw upside risk to the economy from fiscal policy. There were various views on the extent of labor market slack, as well as how close inflation was to the 2% goal. And while there were no clear indications that policymakers were ready to pull the tightening trigger again as soon as May, there weren’t any signs the FOMC was ready to abandon its tightening path either.

Germany: Feb manufacturing orders rose 3.4% m/m, slightly less than anticipated, but with January revised up to -6.8% m/m from -7.4% m/m, the annual rate nevertheless jumped to 4.6% y/y. Domestic orders rebounded strongly from the slump at the start of the year, while export orders stagnated as a dip in orders from other Eurozone countries, the second in a row, counterbalanced a rise in orders from non-EMU countries. All in all broadly in line with expectations, and together with confidence data confirming that the recovery remains on track, which adds to Weidmann’s calls for a phasing out of asset purchases.

Main Macro Events Today

• ECB – ECB president Draghi will speak in Frankfurt today, while and the minutes of the March ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts are also today as well.

• Trump-Xi – Chinese President Xi Jinping will visit Florida to meet President Trump, with the President saying North Korea will be high up on the agenda.

• US Unemployment Claims – Initial jobless claims may retreat 8k to 250k for the April 1 week.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 7th April 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 7th April 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are mixed with Japan outperforming. Risk aversion spiked after a U.S. missile strike in Syria and a strong Yen weighed on exporters, but the Nikkei managed to bounce back and is up 0.41% on the day, with Japan Petroleum Exploration Co. rising strongly as crude oil prices jumped above USD 52 per barrel. The Hang Seng is down -0.64% and CSI and ASX are little changed, while U.S. and U.K. stock futures are heading south amid a fresh bout of risk aversion. This should keep Bund and Gilt futures underpinned going into the weekend. Trump hailed a new “friendship” with China’s Xi in the early hours of their meeting. The European calendar has German trade and production data at the start of the session. France and the U.K. also release production numbers and markets will be looking ahead to U.S. nonfarm payroll numbers in the afternoon.

President Trump uncorked a salvo of 50-60 missiles on an airbase in Syria in retaliation for the Assad chemical attack on his own citizens, which was apparently launched from that same base. Trump says he’s calling on all nations to seek the end of slaughter and bloodshed in Syria. It certainly serves as a warning shot to the Syrian regime and others that the new administration plans to back up its words with force, but comes at an awkward time in Russo-U.S. relations while meeting with the Chinese Premier in Florida. The risk averse yen rallied in wake of the strike, while gold shot over $1,260 and the T-note yield plunged from 2.35% to 2.30% before finding support. .US. informed Russia in advance of airstrikes on the Shayrat Airfield and did not target areas of the base where Russian forces were believed to be present, according to Secretary of State Tillerson. He warned that Russia failed to carry out a 2013 agreement to secure Syrian chemical weapons, and that Moscow was “either complicit or incompetent in its ability to carry out the agreement.” Tillerson said the strike was proportionate after a high degree of confidence that Sarin nerve gas was used in a chemical weapons attack.

US reports: The 25k U.S. initial claims plunge to 234k in the first week of April extended a 2k drop to 259k to leave claims back near the 44-year low of 227k in the President’s Day week. Despite the early-March pop, claims have remained below the 2016 average of 263k in every week of 2017. We have a late-Easter this year on April 16, versus an early-Easter last year on March 27, and this may be adding volatility to the March-April claims figures.

German production data much stronger than expected, with overall production rising 2.2% m/m in February from. German trade surplus widens as imports decline. Germany posted a sa trade surplus of EUR 21.1 bln in February, up from EUR 18.9 bln in the previous month, as export growth slowed down to 0.8% m/m from 2.4% m/m and imports dropped -1.6% m/m after rising 2.8% m/m in January. This is nominal data, that has been heavily impacted by oil price developments and import prices, but data are pointing to a rise in net exports in the first quarter of the year, at least on a nominal basis.

Main Macro Events Today

• US Employment – March employment data should reveal a 180k headline for the month. This compares to 235k in February and 238k in January. The unemployment rate should hold steady at 4.7% from February, down from 4.8% in January. The balance of risk is to the upside as producer sentiment, consumer confidence and initial claims data all remained strong in March.

• Canada Employment – Employment, expected, to 5.0k in March after the 15.3k gain in February. The unemployment rate is seen at 6.7%. Governor Poloz offered a cautious view of Canada’s economy, saying in effect that the recent few odd firm data point should not make us forget about the numerous downside risk surrounding the outlook for Canada’s economy.

• BOE – BoE Gov. Carney is due to speak at Thomson Reuters in London.

• UK Manufacturing Production – Manufacturing production for February is also due today, which expected to rise 0.3% m/m after the 0.9% m/m contraction in the previous month.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 10th April 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 10th April 2017.

FX News Today

Geopolitical risks will add to edgy market tone. The markets were fairly resilient to news of the U.S. missile strike on a Syrian airbase, on top of a soft March jobs report. But after knee-jerk risk-aversion trades, the focus shifted back to the bearish implications of the FOMC minutes where the discussion of balance sheet normalization suggested a more hawkish Fed stance versus the view of a “dovish tightening” on March 15th. Lots will be in play this week. Traders will look to gauge the global reaction and fallout from Syria, while inflation and production data highlight the economic calendar. Easter holidays will quiet trading into the weekend.

United States: U.S. markets were whipsawed Friday by the surprise news of the missile strike on Syria and the much weaker than expected jobs report, while late afternoon comments from NY Fed’s Dudley knocked bonds and stocks lower. Syria sparked flight to safety, risk aversion trade, which saw bond yields and stock prices dive. But, Dudley’s remarks that suggested a potential delay in rate hikes once balance sheet normalization began would only be a “little” pause, started a selloff and Treasury yields bounced closed at session highs. This week’s economic calendar is light, with key reports not out until Friday, where the markets will be closed for Good Friday. Hence calendar doesn’t come into focus until the end of the week when March CPI and retail sales will be reported. CPI is expected to be flat in March after edging up 0.1% in February. Retail sales for March are also expected to be unchanged following the 0.1% gain in February, due to weakness in gas and autos. The preliminary April consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan survey is also on tap (Thursday). Confidence is projected to have bounced to 97.5, after edging up to 96.9 in March from February’s 2.2 point drop to 96.3. Other data during the week includes February JOLTS job openings, along with the NFIB small business survey (Tuesday), trade prices for March, along with the Treasury budget (Wednesday), as well as weekly initial jobless claims and March PPI (Thursday).

Fedspeak: Fed Chair Yellen will be on tap (Monday) when she will speak at the University of Michigan Ford School of Public Policy. She will also take questions, and it’s likely she’ll be asked to expound on normalization of the balance sheet, as well as the Fed’s rate path. The dovish voter Kashkari will participate in a Q&A session (Tuesday). And the centrist-hawk Kaplan will speak (Wednesday).

Canada: The BoC’s announcement and Monetary Policy Report (MPR) dominate the domestic proceedings this week. The announcement (Wednesday) is expected to reveal no change in the current 0.50% policy setting alongside a cautiously constructive take on the growth and inflation outlook. Economic data is confined to just a few releases, but they are of interest. Housing starts (Monday) is expected to show a 210.0k growth rate for March, which would be little changed from the firm 210.2k rate in February. The manufacturing survey (Thursday) should show a 1.0% drop in shipment values during February after the 0.6% gain in January. A broad-based 2.4% plunge in February export values underpins our manufacturing shipment estimate. The new home price index (Thursday) is anticipated to rise 0.2% m/m in February after the 0.1% increase in January. The Teranet/National Bank housing price index for March is due Wednesday. Markets are closed Friday for the Good Friday Holiday.

Europe: The focus this week will be mainly on the final March inflation numbers. The initial readings came in lower than anticipated, but were impacted by the later timing of Easter this year, which also means holiday related prices should pick up later. So, the expected confirmation of German HICP (Thursday) at 1.5%, the French at 1.4% and the Italian at 1.3% y/y does not change the overall view that inflation is trending higher against the background of ongoing growth and improvements in labor markets. The highlight of the week is German April ZEW Investor Confidence (Tuesday) expected to rise to 13.2 from 12.8, with geo-political risk factors, the prospect of further Fed tightening, and the ECB’s discussions on rates tapering expected to weigh on sentiment and prevent a more pronounced improvement. Other releases include Eurozone production numbers (Tuesday), while Germany sells EUR 3 bln of 10-year Bunds (Wednesday).

UK: The calendar this week is highlighted by March inflation data (Tuesday) and employment numbers covering February and March (Wednesday), along with the March BRC retail sales survey (Thursday).

Japan: The February current account surplus (Monday) is expected to widen to JPY 2,500.0 bln, from 65.5 bln in January. February machine orders (Wednesday) are penciled in at up 3.0% versus the 3.2% decline in January. March PPI meanwhile (Wednesday) is forecast to heat up to 1.3% y/y from 1.0% in February. Revised February industrial production is due Friday.

Australia: Australia’s calendar is headlined by the Reserve Bank of Australia’s Financial Stability Review (Thursday), which is published twice a year. Economic data features March employment (Thursday), expected to show a 10.0k rebound in total jobs following the 6.4k decline in February. The unemployment rate is projected at 5.9%, matching February. A 1.0% gain in housing finance (Monday) is anticipated for February after the 0.5% improvement in January.

New Zealand: New Zealand’s calendar is again sparse. Retail card spending (Tuesday) is of some interest however, as spending is seen rebounding 0.3% m/m in February after the 0.6% decline in January that was the first pull-back in five months.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.