Daily Market Analysis from Hotforex Broker

[HFM]

Date : 15th December 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 15th December 2016.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets mostly headed south, after the FED did the expected and hiked rates by 25 bp. Japanese markets outperform and the Nikkei closed with a slight gain as the Yen dropped while in Hong Kong property shares came under fresh pressure amid rising mortgage costs and punitive taxes. U.K. stock futures are also down, after broad losses on Wall Street yesterday, but U.S. futures are already picking up again. European bond futures, which rose going into the Fed decision, are likely to be knocked back and the Bund futures already headed sharply south in after hour trade yesterday. Oil prices dropped and the front end WTI future is trading around USD 51 per barrel. Gold collapsed to under USD 1144 following the “3 next year” comments. In Europe the data calendar is pretty empty and policy announcements from BoE, SNB and Norges Bank are not expected to hold major surprises, with all central banks seen on hold. The BoE is likely to reaffirm its neutral stance, while the SNB will repeat again that it remains ready to intervene on forex markets if needed, as the Franc remains overvalued. EU leaders start gathering for the last summit of 2016 today with upcoming Brexit talks likely high on the agenda.
FOMC Delivered on First and Last Hike of 2016: The Fed finally delivered on its threat to boost the Fed funds target range to 0.50-0.75%, narrowly slipping in the second hike of the lost decade with two weeks left to go before year-end. While entirely discounted by the markets given well-placed and consistent smoke signals from the Fed, it also stretched its “dot plot” forecasts to include three more hikes in 2017. The statement noted the “decline” in the jobless rate and a “considerable” uptick in inflation compensation as well.
Australia employment surged 39.1k in November, much stronger than expected, after a revised 15.2k gain in October (was +9.8k). It was the largest one month gain this year. The unemployment rate rose to 5.7% from 5.6%. Full time jobs jumped 39.3k after a 41.5k gain. Part time employment was nearly flat (-0.2k) following the 30.5k drop in October. The participation rate picked-up to 64.6% from 64.4%. This is a strong report that underpins expectations for no change from the RBA for an extended period.
The U.S. Data Yesterday: Revealed a surprisingly weak round of Q4 retail sales figures that trimmed Q4 GDP estimates to 1.3% from 1.8%, following an assumed Q3 boost to 3.4% from 3.2%. We also saw a weaker than expected November industrial production report thanks to a huge weather-induced utility decline over the past three months alongside an unexpected November vehicle assembly rate drop. The October business inventory figures tracked assumptions, though these figures combined with the weak November sales and factory data suggest that the inventory reversal is proving slow to materialize. The November PPI figures bucked the day’s pattern of weak reports, with 0.4% headline and core-price gains that reflected strength in service prices alongside the expected pause in the energy price climb.

Main Macro Events Today

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  • BOE Preview – The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee met for the final time in 2016 and an unanimous decisions to leave the repo rate at 0.25% and the QE total at GBP 435 bln, is widely anticipated. The minutes are expected to reaffirm the neutral stance that was established last month.

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  • SNB Preview – The SNB’s quarterly policy review is not expected to bring any surprises, with the bank widely expected to keep rates and general policy parameters unchanged. The central bank is almost sure to stress once again that it remains willing and ready to intervene in currency markets to keep the franc from running higher. A foray further into negative interest rate policy also remains in the arsenal, but is unlikely to be applied just yet. This will leave the focus not just on updated growth and inflation projections, but also comments on the domestic side effects of the SNB’s policy and developments on mortgage and property markets as Switzerland enjoys the quiet holiday period, before the political thunderstorms in Europe next year, when Brexit talks are set to start and France, Germany, the Netherlands face key elections, that have the potential to undermine the stability of the EU and EMU.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 16th December 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 16th December 2016.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets moved mostly higher overnight, although while Chinese markets picked up stocks are still heading for a solid weekly drop. ASX and Nifty are down on the day, as the Dollar gave up some of its recent gains. U.S. and U.K. stock futures meanwhile are moving higher. European yields have popped sharply higher since the Fed decision and yesterday’s BoE move, which confirmed the bank’s neutral stance, failed to stop the long Gilt yield to add a further 10 bp. Eurozone spreads are coming in meanwhile and peripheral markets continue to outperform as the ECB continues its bond buying spree. Today’s European calendar has French business confidence, as well as Eurozone trade and final December CPI numbers and the U.K. CBI industrial trends survey. Gold touched $1122 before recovering to $1133, WTI traded under $50 and currently trades at $51. USDJPY is north of 118.00, EURUSD is struggling to hold 1.0450 and Cable bounced from 1.2400 to 1.2430.

BoE, SNB and Norges Bank Stay Put Amid Political Challenges In 2017: No surprises from European central banks yesterday, with BoE, SNB and finally Norges Bank all keeping rates on hold and indicating a pretty stable policy path ahead. However, while all acknowledge ongoing improvement in the global economy, they also stress heightened uncertainty, with future policies in the U.S., and Brexit negotiations adding to remaining concerns about the stability of the Chinese economy.

The U.S. Data Yesterday: Revealed big gains in the capital expenditure plans components that bode well for a possible ongoing climb in sentiment and investment activity into early-2017. The Philly Fed capital expenditure plans measure surged to a cycle-high 33.8 from 19.1 in November and a 5-month high of 21.2 in October, versus a 31.2 prior cycle-high in March of 2011 and a -18.2 cycle-low in December of 2008. The Empire State’s capital expenditure plans index surged to 21.7 from 12.7 in November and 13.2 in October, versus a one-year high of 22.1 in April, a 38.2 cycle-high in May of 2010, and a -19.1 cycle-low in March of 2009. We’ve also seen big gains in small business confidence, an NAHB December surge to an 11-year high of 70, and lean inventories into Q4 that all leave room for a production bounce into the new year.

BoC Poloz highlighted Canada’s differences with the U.S., in response to a question asking if a BoC hike was imminent. Not surprisingly, he did not answer directly, saying that (rate hike imminent) was the report’s (“your”) conclusion. He reminded that the BoC’s forecast is for CPI to get back to target by mid 2018. Unlike the U.S., “we have considerable amount of excess capacity” he said. “If we don’t get rid of it, inflation will stay below for long time. For that reason, our rates our low to fill in that gap. All I can say for now is that our projection is it will take until 2018 to return to full capacity. That is different than the U.S.,” Poloz explained.



Main Macro Events Today

• EUR CPI – Final headline figure is expected at 0.6% and Core at 0.8% – Both unchanged and still struggling to show any meaningful increase. Mr Draghi’s headache continues. The seasonally adjusted Trade balance is also due at the same time and is expected to have ticked up to 25.2billion Euro from 24.9 bln. (Exports worth more than Imports with such a weak Euro this is a minimum for future Euro zone growth).

• US Housing Starts – November housing starts data is out today and should post a 1,240k headline, down from the October surge to 1,323k that set a high back to 2007. Permits are expected at 1,230k from 1,260k in October and completions should be 1,065k from 1,055k in October. The NAHB was steady at 63 in November before Thursday’s October surge to 70.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

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Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 19th December 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 19th December 2016.

FX News Today

The recent decisions by the FOMC to tighten policy and the ECB to extend stimulus reflect the widening divergences of monetary policy. And the uncertainties over the macroeconomic outcomes from government and central bank actions, along with geopolitical tensions, will keep the markets choppy ahead. So buckle up for a bumpy ride into the new year.
United States: The rally on Wall Street took a breather on Friday, especially after news China seized a Navy drone motivated profit taking. The declines were slim, however, with the Dow at 19,843 and looking down the barrel of the psychological 20,000. Traditionally, the final two weeks of the year are very positive for equity markets. Hopes for increased fiscal stimulus and reduced regulations have underpinned a surge in the feel good factor, which have boosted confidence and manufacturing figures for the month. The calendar is back ended and compressed into the end of the week. Thursday’s slate is heavy; Personal income and consumption for November should show respective gains of 0.3% and 0.2%. The PCE chain price index is expected to rise 0.2%, with the core rate up 0.1%. November durable goods orders will also be of interest, though the volatility in the data limit its overall usefulness. The third version of Q3 GDP should show a small upward revision to 3.3% (median 3.3%) from the prior 3.2% pace, and up from 2.9% in the Advance report. The price index should hold at 1.4% (median 1.4%). November existing home sales (Wednesday) and new home sales (Friday) will also be of interest. Existing home sales are expected to edge up 0.4% to a 5.62 mln. New home sales should rebound 2.1% to 575k (median 575k) after October tumbled 1.9% to 563k. The final reading on consumer confidence (Friday) should hold near the 98.0 print (median 98.2) after surging 4.2 to that level in the preliminary reading amid optimism following the Trump election. Initial jobless claims (Thursday) for the week ended December 17, expected to rise 11k to 265k, This week’s survey is important as it coincides with the BLS survey week. Also on tap is the preliminary December Markit services PMI (Monday). It dipped 0.2 points in November to 54.6, though it was the 9th consecutive month of expansion. There is the October FHFA home price index (Thursday). Then it’s the KC Fed manufacturing survey (Thursday).
Canada: GDP for October (Friday) is expected to improve 0.1% after the 0.3% gain in September. October wholesale trade (Tuesday) is seen rebounding 0.7% m/m in October after the 1.2% drop in September. Retail sales (Thursday) are projected to expand 0.5% in October after the 0.6% improvement in September. CPI (Wednesday) is anticipated to slip 0.2% in November after the 0.2% gain in October.
Europe: The ECB effectively confirmed its policy parameters for the whole of 2017 last week. It will be political events, including the start of official Brexit talks, as well as elections in Germany, the Netherlands and France, that will dominate next year. This week’s focus is on the Ifo Business Climate index where expectations are for another marked improvement to 110.8 from 110.4 after the strong orders number and the better than expected manufacturing PMI. There is also likely to be a modest improvement in the flash reading for Eurozone consumer confidence to -6.0 from -6.1, with German GfK consumer confidence to 9.9 from 9.8. Last but not least is the final release of French Q3 GDP, expected to confirm the quarterly growth rate at 0.2%.
UK: As 2016 draws to a close, the fundamental picture of the UK is looking pretty good, contrary to widespread fears following the June 23 vote to leave the EU. The BoE reaffirmed its neutral policy bias, but warned of a more “fragile” global outlook, highlighting the troubled Italian banking sector and rising debt in China, signaling that the policy rate could “move in either direction” in 2017. Brexit-related uncertainty remains a blot on the landscape. An FT article on Friday reported that Japanese banks have warned the government that they will start downsizing London operations within six months unless there is clarity on the UK’s future relationship with the EU. The UK calendar features the CBI distributive sales survey for December (Tuesday), November government borrowing figures (Wednesday), December consumer confidence (Thursday), and the third estimate of the Q3 GDP, which is expected to remain unrevised at 0.5% q/q and 2.3% y/y.
China: No data releases this week.
Japan: The BoJ starts its two-day meeting on Monday, and will announce its policy intentions on Tuesday. No changes in policy are expected, with short term rates kept steady a -0.10%, and bond purchases continuing at a JPY 80 tln rate. The October all-industry index (Wednesday) is penciled in at up 0.1% m/m from up 0.2% previously, which was the first positive reading since July.
Australia: The calendar is empty of top tier data this week. The only event of note is the Reserve Bank of Australia’s minutes to the November meeting (Tuesday).
Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 20th December 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 16th December 2016.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are mixed, with Japan and ASX moving higher as the BoJ left policy unchanged, and the Yen retreated. Hang Seng and mainland China markets remain under pressure with oil producers and banks leading the way. U.S. stock futures are up and FTSE 100 futures are little changed, as events in Ankara and Berlin add to political uncertainty in Europe. With elections in France, the Netherlands and Germany next year especially the suspected terror attack at a German Christmas market in Berlin is likely to further boost populist movements. A fresh bout of risk aversion could see Bund futures extending gains, after the March contract managed to break the downtrend yesterday and closed at 163.15, while extending gains in after hour trade. The next target is the 163.79, the high from November 28. It will likely overshadow today’s data calendar, which includes German producer price inflation at the start of the session, followed by Eurozone current account and BoP data as well as Swiss trade and the U.K. CBI distributive trade survey.
BoJ Rates & QQE Unchanged Outlook upgrade: The Bank of Japan December meeting concluded today, with the bank upgrading its outlook for the economy but leaving policy unchanged: The short-term interest rate target unchanged at -0.1%, The 10-year JGB yield target is left at around zero %, Buying of JGBs is still targeted at an annual pace of 80tln yen. The “inflation-overshooting commitment,” also first announced in September and where the BoJ is committing to expanding the money base until CPI exceeds the y/y target of 2% and stays above target, was also reaffirmed. The central bank noted that the economy “continued its moderate recovery trend,” highlighting a pick up in exports. Overall, no surprises from the BoJ. The general view now is that the central bank is in a wait-and-see stance while it monitors a long-awaited reflation expected to be driven by a weaker yen and higher oil prices. The yen has declined by 6.2% m/m versus the dollar, while Brent crude prices are up 12.2% m/m (and by 50.9% y/y). The BoJ also last week announced a ramp-up in purchases of debt maturing in 10 to 25 years as part of its yield curve control operations.
The U.S. Data Yesterday: U.S. Markit flash services PMI fell 1.2 points to 53.4 in December after dipping 0.2 points to 54.6 in November. It was 54.3 a year ago, and is the lowest since September. The employment sub-index rose to 53.4 from 52.1 previously and is the highest since March. Prices charged also increased. The composite index also declined 1.2 points to 53.7 from 54.9, and is also the lowest since September. But new orders fell to 54.4 from 55.5, while input prices also increased. These are some of the few indicators that haven’t bounced further on the Trump-effect, though the indexes were already at relative highs in October.
Yellen: She didn’t offer anything new or any fresh policy insight in her commencement speech at the University of Baltimore. She repeated that the labor market is strong, indeed the best in nearly a decade and that job creation is continuing at a steady pace, with layoffs low. She does see indications of a pick up in wages, especially for younger workers, while productivity growth remains disappointing. While economic gains are raising most living standards, she did acknowledge there challenges remain, including the fact that the recovery has been so slow.

Main Macro Events Today

• German Producer Price Index (PPI) – Expected to fall to 0.1% from 0.7% last time (MoM) whilst YoY figure expected to improve to -0.2% from -0.4% in October.

• NZD GDT – Twice monthly Global Diary Trade auction announce later today along with New Zealand trdae balance and the monthly Visitor arrivals. The GDT improve last time to 3.5%, expectations are for a similar demand this time, NZ trade balance is expected to improve to -500million NZD from – 846milliom NZD as export prices have improved. Visitor arrivals expected to increase to 2.5% from 2.2% last month. The NZD has been under pressure over the last few trading sessions.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 21st December 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 21st December 2016.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets moved mostly higher overnight after gains on Wall Street and in quiet trade. Japan was a notable exception and the Nikkei closing with a -0.26% loss as the Yen bounced back and strengthened across the board. The DAX tested the highs for the year today and U.S. indices also saw record levels, despite attacks in Ankara and Germany adding to global risks. Stock futures are looking a bit more cautious this morning, with U.S. futures narrowly mixed and the FTSE 100 future in negative territory. Oil prices are higher on the day and the front end WTI future is trading at USD 53.56 per barrel and Gold trades at USD 1135 per troy ounce. Markets are settling into the holiday period and lower trading volumes could exaggerate moves but core yields moved higher again yesterday as stocks remained underpinned and if stock markets get more cautious could see bond futures recovering some losses. The European data calendar has U.K. public finance data and preliminary Eurozone consumer confidence data.
US VIX: U.S. VIX equity volatility sank 1% to the 11.60 area compared to its very tight 11.50-11.74 session range. The VIX has yet to take out its lows of the year of 11.02 set on August 9, 2016, after a couple of near misses in December. Perhaps a break through/close 20k in the Dow and 2.3k in the S&P 500 will be the awaited trigger, but stocks are veering away from fresh highs again now and the VIX is rebounding toward unchanged. A break below 11.02 would put sights on life lows of 8.20 market on July 4, 1994. Look like a cat and mouse game between funds and algorithms to ride the momentum trade into year-end.
Fedspeak: SF Fed’s Williams said risks are shifting away from weakness, in a New York Times interview. Though Williams has been a long-standing dove, he has been increasingly mindful of the improved labor market, the general rise in growth, as well as the pick-up in inflation, which has shifted his stance slightly toward the center. Indeed, he admitted that while there are “a lot of uncertainty over what policies are going to be enacted” by the Trump administration, his views on “risks to the outlook have shifted a little.” Previously his stance had been “balanced and if anything a little bit to the soft side.” The potential for fiscal stimulus and other changes should shift risks to the outlook “a little bit to the right…but it’s not a big effect.” The decision to hike rates last week “stands on its own” and was “wholly” based on data. His underlying view is broadly consistent with the central tendency of the Committee, looking for moderate growth and inflation moving toward 2%. Of interest, he noted there’s a negative feedback loop when all major banks are at the zero bound.
The 2017 Oil-Led U.S. Factory Rebound is Already Underway: The U.S. factory sector is poised for a recovery into 2017 that is already taking shape, with an election lift alongside an emerging reversal of the massive GDP inventory hit that accompanied the 20-month downswing in oil prices through last February. The mining sector is lifting industrial production beyond a temporary weather-led plunge in utility output, producer sentiment is rising with spikes in planned capital spending, stock prices and consumer confidence are soaring, and inventory to sales (I/S) ratios are falling as prices and demand rebound.

Main Macro Events Today

• U.S. Existing Home Sales – November existing home sales data is out today and should reveal a 0.4% increase to a 5.620 mln (median 5.540 mln) pace from 5.600 mln in October and 5.490 mln in September. NAHB sentiment in November was steady from October at 63 before bouncing to 70 in December.

• NZD GDP – Year on Year GDP in New Zealand is expected to tick up to 3.7% form 3.6% last time with Quarter 3, Quarter on Quarter growth unchanged at 0.9%. The current account GDP ratio is also expected to increase but only marginally to -3.0% from -2.9%.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 22nd December 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 22nd December 2016.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets headed mostly south overnight, following on from losses in Wall Street where the Dow is struggling to conquer the much watched 20000 mark. Japan failed to benefit from a weaker Yen and developers remained under pressure in Hong Kong and while the ASX managed to extend the year end rally to new highs, U.S. and FTSE 100 futures are also down. Oil prices are little changed, after the front end WTI future dropped below USD 53 yesterday and GOLD declined to 1130 gain overnight. While DAX and FTSE 100 remain in lofty heights, investors seem hesitant to push indices further up as markets start to settle into holiday mode and trading volumes start to thin. Yields meanwhile fell back again yesterday and while the Bund future underperformed its U.K. counterpart, it seems to have successfully broken the downtrend that was in place since late September, with the next target the area around 163.79, the high from November 28. Released overnight, U.K. Dec retail sales moved higher to -7 from -8 in Nov.
The US has a raft of data later (see below for highlights) including 3Q GDP (final revision) Durable Goods, both these key data releases at 13:30 GMT. Also today there is Spending, Income and Consumption data as well as Initial Jobless claims for the week. Canada also releases CPI and Retail Sales.
German Import Price Inflation: Jumped to 0.3% y/y from -0.6% y/y in the previous month, much higher than expected and driven mainly by a sharp turnaround in energy and basic goods prices as well as a renewed rise in prices for agriculture, forestry and fishing. Energy price inflation jumped to 0.9% y/y from -2.2% y/y in the previous month and basic goods prices were also up 0.9% y/y, after still falling -0.8% y/y in November. As predicted inflation rates are rebounding quickly as negative base effects from energy prices are falling out of the equation and with the weakening of the EUR against the dollar adding to upward pressures. Deflation is not longer an issue and in Germany the risk of overshooting headline inflation is rising as the labour market remains very tight.
Fed policy Outlook: The dot-plot suggests 3 rate hikes next year. And that’s a good first approximation with most in the markets projecting that trajectory too. But, the risk might be to fewer, especially as the Fed only hiked once this year, versus the 4 in the dot-plot. Fed policy action is unlikely to begin as soon and probably not until late Q2 at the earliest. Our forecasts show growth slowing to the mid 1.0% region next quarter, and it’s unlikely any significant Trump effect will be seen until the second half of 2017. Meanwhile, although inflation has picked up in recent months, thanks in large part to the rebound in oil, the bounce in energy prices may not be sustained if U.S. production kicks in again. Also, the dollar is likely to remain firm amid diverging central bank actions, which could cap the upside. The composition of the 2017 voting Committee may limit the number size of rate hikes as well. Evans, Kashkari, Harker, and Kaplan who are coming on board, are less hawkish than the current group including Bullard, George, Mester, and Rosenberg.
US VIX equity volatility finally broke below year lows of 11.02 to mark a trend low of 10.93 earlier compared to the 11.49-10.93 session range before rebounding to 11.27. Investors are starting to turn blue from holding their breath while awaiting the break of 20k in the Dow, which may itself be stymieing the advance as the markets get a case of acrophobia into year-end after the dramatic late-2016 rally. VIX focus is now on 8.20 life lows (July 4, 1994) for those who believe that 2017 will be smooth sailing and risk free.

Main Macro Events Today

• U.S. GDP – The third release on Q3 GDP is out today and expectations are for the headline to be revised up to 3.3% for the quarter. Expectations for construction spending to be revised up by $6 bln, wholesale inventories by $3 bln and consumption by $2 bln while net exports undergo a slight, $1 bln, downward revision.

• US Durable Goods – November durable goods data is out today and should reveal a -4.2%) decline in orders with shipments down 0.5% and inventories up 0.1% for the month. This compares to respective October figures of 4.6% for orders, -0.1% for shipments and flat for inventories. Data in line with forecasts would leave the I/S ratio at 1.65 from 1.64 in both October and September.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 23rd December 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 23rd December 2016.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Stock markets which already headed mostly south yesterday continued to decline in Asia overnight, with as oil prices remain below USD 53 per barrel and concerns about China are weighing on sentiment in thinning holiday trade, and with markets in Tokyo closed. Hong Kong stocks are hit by capital outflows. Deutsche Bank agreed to pay USD 7.2 bln and Credit Suisse USD 5.3 bln in U.S. mortgage probes, while the Italian government is ahead with its pan to provide USD 20 bln for troubled banks, with Monte Paschi planning to ask the government for a “precautionary” capital increase. U.S. stock futures are mostly slightly higher, as is the FTSE 100 future, but with DAX and FTSE 100 still at lofty heights, investors seem cautious to push out indices further ahead of the holidays. The calendar in Europe includes final Q3 GDP readings from France and the U.K. and the Swiss KoF leading indicator.
German Jan GfK consumer confidence: Rose to 9.9 from 9.8 in the previous month, the third consecutive rise and while the reading remains below the levels seen at the peak last year, the renewed improvement supports hopes for robust consumption trends going into 2017. However, the breakdown, which is only available until December, showed a rise in business as well as income expectations, but despite this the willingness to spend actually fell back to a reading of 48.0 from 51.2 in the previous month. At the same time the willingness to save also dropped further into negative territory though and price expectations fell also further into negative territory.
Yesterday’s U.S. reports: Revealed a significant upside Q3 GDP surprise with a headline boost to 3.5% from 3.2%, and firmness in “real” consumption in the November personal income report that lifted Q4 GDP growth estimate to 1.5% from 1.3%. Yet, we also saw weak equipment and inventory data in the durable goods report that restrained growth outlook, beyond the expected big 4.6% November headline orders drop attributable to a 13.2% transportation plunge. A 21k initial claims surge to 275k in the BLS survey week was disappointing, though the spike is likely due to holiday volatility, and the trend in claims remains encouraging. Finally, we saw a flat leading indicators figure for November that modestly beat estimates, while the Bloomberg consumer comfort index rose yet again, to a 20-month high of 46.7.
Eurozone 2017 – Political Risks Take Centre Stage: The Eurozone recovery is continuing at a moderate pace, inflation is picking up from very low levels, unemployment levels are coming down. The ECB’s very accommodative policy stance has not only helped Eurozone spreads to come in, but also continues to underpin lending and robust consumption and there are tentative signs that even investment is picking up again. But as Draghi confirmed the central bank’s policy of ongoing monetary accommodation through to the end of next year, it is the political arena that will take centre stage for 2017.
“ECB sources” say it will wait until after German elections in September before its next policy move, according to Reuters headlines. Hardly ground breaking news, considering that the ECB effectively clarified its policy stance through to end 2017 at the last meeting and the German election data is not yet known, but has to take place before October 22. It says that “no option is off the table” if the economy worsens, which is of course just another way to repeat Draghi’s message from the press conference that QE purchases can be stepped up if necessary. However, the report says the ECB aims to buy as few bonds as possible below the depo rate from January, which is sort of contradictory, but the thinned markets can make of it what they will.

Main Macro Events Today

• Canada GDP – GDP to expand 0.1% m/m in October after the 0.3% gain in September. Total retail sales volumes grew 0.6% in October. A 0.9% m/m bounce in wholesale shipment volumes contrasted with the 1.7% plunge in manufacturing. But housing starts fell 12.1% to a 192.3k pace in October, consistent with a negative contribution from construction production. The outlook for mining, oil and gas production is mixed. Energy export values grew 5.5%, but prices did climb in October, suggesting that volumes may be disappointing. The manufacturing report revealed a 1.7% pull-back in petro and coal production. The 0.1% gain that we expect in October GDP combined with the 0.1% growth rates in November and December equate to a 1.9% growth rate in Q4 (q/q, saar). That would overshoot the BoC’s 1.5% estimate after the 3.5% Q3 GDP gain eclipsed the Bank’s 3.2% estimate. Growth is running slightly better than expected in the second half of 2016, consistent with a modestly more upbeat outlook in the January MPR that maintains no-change-for-an-expended-period as the baseline for BoC policy.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 28th December 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 28th December 2016.

FX News Today

European Outlook: US stocks had a quiet day with the Dow (USA30) closing short of 20,000 again at 19,945, Gold and Oil both traded higher (USD 1,144 – above its 10 DMA for the first time since November 10 and USD 53.84 – up some 1.6% on the day) respectively. The UK and Canada were closed yesterday for Boxing day. In Asia markets also saw low volumes. Japan Industrial production missed estimates rising 1.5% when expectations were for 1.7% during November. However, this was the best result for 5 months and there were also signs of life in the Retails Sales figures. Japan retail sales (November): -0.3% m/m (expected -0.5%, and for the y/y, up 1.7% expected +0.8% y/y, prior -0.2%. This is the first gain since February for retail sales.

FX Update: USD fell back again overnight. Canada, Australia, New Zealand and Hong Kong are all back from the extended Christmas holiday, but trading volumes are likely to remain thin for the rest of the week. AUD and NZD have been the main outperformers overnight. The EUR also continued to perk up against most currencies after Weidmann and Knot mulled tapering options yesterday, and EURUSD is currently at 1.0474, which but still has a way to go before revising last week’s peak at 1.0499. The Yen continues slide, after halting a four day advance yesterday, but USDJPY continued to ply a narrow range in the mid 117s, consolidating after logging a trend high at 118.66 last week. AUDUSD is above 0.72 now. Oil prices are higher and stock markets in Asia fluctuated in a very narrow range, with many centres closed.

Yesterday’s U.S. reports: Revealed another monthly consumer confidence surge that has taken the index back to levels last seen before the September 2001 terrorist attack when we saw a largely sustained downswing, alongside big December gains in the Richmond Fed and Dallas Fed indexes to 8.0 and 15.5, respectively, with broad-based gains beyond notable weakness in the employment indexes. It was the present situations index that exhibited the bulk of the post-911 hit to consumer confidence but it is expectations that have led the post-election bounce, alongside a gradual climb for the present situations index through this business cycle back toward the restrained highs of the prior cycle in 2007. Consumers and businesses are getting increasingly giddy about prospects for 2017, though production, inventory and sales data are thus far proving slow to respond.

The Rest of the Week Ahead: Various cross-currents may prevail in the last abbreviated trading week of 2016, though fundamentals should be the least dominant factor, and year-end portfolio adjustments the most relevant. Stocks remain on a sugar high in wake of the Trump election, but could take a breather, while bonds will wrestle with both index extensions and supply. While Trump’s Twitter feed over the interregnum before the inauguration may cause some isolated volatility, stocks look to finish 2016 inside some of the tightest ranges in over a year.

Main Macro Events Today

US Pending Home Sales – November Pending Homes Sales likely to increase 0.5% from 0.1% in October – the Year on Year figure is expected to continue to show US housing remains in strong demand. The impact of rising interest rates will play out next year but for now expect at least a 1.8% year on year figure.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 29th December 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 29th December 2016.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets were mostly down, led by a slump in Japan, as the Yen rose across the board. The weakness in Asia followed a decline on Wall Street yesterday set off by disappointing U.S. data that sent the USD into retreat. Oil prices also dropped and the front end WTI future is trading below USD 53 per barrel again despite approaching production cuts. The ASX still managed to post slight gains and some Chinese indices clawed back some of their recent losses while trading volumes perked up a bit. U.S. and U.K. stock futures are still down, however, setting the European market up for further weakness, although the DAX is still poised to end the year with a solid gain, as the ECB continues to lend a helping hand. With the ECB still on an asset buying spree, Eurozone yields remain under pressure and especially the short end continues to drop to new lows after Draghi removed the deposit rate floor for bond purchases. UK Nationwide house price index Dec mm +0.8% vs +0.2% expectations and year on year increase up to 4.5% from 3.8% expected.
FX Update: Overnight the Yen rose strongly – USDJPY fell from yesterday’s high at 117.80 to currently trade at 116.23, GBYJPY collapsed to under 143.00 and EURJPY is trading at 121.65 down from yesterday’s high of 123.26. The USD has also retreated against the EUR (back to 1.0450 from yesterday’s multi week lows at 1.0370) and GBP (1.2250).
Yesterday’s U.S. reports: US pending home sales fell 2.5% to 107.3 in November after rising 0.1% to 110.0 in October. Sales have been on a choppy, saw-toothed course for more than a year. Regionally, sales declined in the West (-6.7%), the Midwest (-2.5%) and the South (-1.2%), but rose slightly in the Northeast (0.6%). On an annual basis, however, sales accelerated to a 1.4% y/y clip versus 0.2% y/y previously.
Germany: Italy must stick to new rules in bank aid. Like Bundesbank president Weidmann earlier in the week, the German Finance Ministry today stressed that a precautionary recapitalisation of banks, as planned by Italy, can only take place in exceptional circumstance and within the framework of the Eurozone’s strict rules. The latter also includes investor bail-ins and the ministry stressed again that the bank must still be solvent and that public funds must not be used to cover foreseeable losses. The ECB reportedly already said that in the case of Monte Paschi the bank remains solvent, but reports from earlier in the week also suggest that the ECB is pushing for a higher investor bail-in as the government had planned. Italy’s banking sector, which is struggling to cope with the high level of non-performing loans, will clearly be the acid test for the Eurozone’s new regulatory framework for future bank bailouts.
Main Macro Events Today

• US Initial Claims – Claims data for the week of December 24 is out today and should reveal a 275k (median 265k) headline, steady from last week and up from 254k the week before that. Claims have been striking a firm path since summer and are poised to average 259k in December from 252k in November and 258k in October.

• EIA Crude Inventories – Expectations are for a drawdown of up to 1.5 million barrels, following a build of 2.256 million last week. Overnight the private inventory survey has shown the biggest build in 6 weeks. Conflicting data is not that uncommon between the two agencies. The official EIA data is published at 16:00 GMT.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 30th December 2016.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 30th December 2016.

FX News Today

European Outlook: The Bund contract has broken the downtrend that had been in place since the end of September and is ending the year on a new uptrend after Draghi managed to inject new life with his QE extension. At the same time 2-year yields are testing new lows as the ECB drops the deposit rate floor for asset purchases. Gilt yields are also heading south again, although the 10-year yield recovered a lot of ground since the BoE removed its easing bias in November. Stock markets are set to end the year with solid gains on both sides of the channel. Today will be an early close for many centres. The calendar is relatively quiet, although Spanish HICP inflation is likely to attract some attention as this is the first of the big Eurozone countries to release preliminary December numbers and expectations are for a sharp acceleration in the headline rate, which will set the stage for the release of Eurozone numbers next week.
Overnight Update: WTI crude rallied to $54.19 from $54.05 following the EIA inventory data which showed a 600k bbl rise in crude stocks. The street had been expecting a 1.5 mln bbl decrease, though API data released on Wednesday revealed a 4.2 mln bbl increase in U.S. stocks. Gold rallied to and continues its good week on thin trading, overnight it reached $1163. The major mover was EUR bids at the close when EURUSD rallied to over 1.0650 for a three week high on very low liquidity and profit taking. .
Yesterday’s U.S. reports: revealed big but divergent surprises in the November advance indicators report that left a likely new 20-month high for the goods and services trade deficit in November of $45.8 bln, alongside surprisingly big November wholesale and retail inventory gains that translate to a big 0.7% November business inventory increase. The initial claims figures revealed a 10K drop to 265k in the fourth week of December that trimmed the 21k surge to 275k in the BLS survey week, which we still see as consistent with a tight claims trend despite holiday volatility that likely prompted the mid-month pop. Q4 GDP estimates remain at 1.5%, and expectations are for a 185k December nonfarm payroll rise.
Germany 2017- Election Jitters and Brexit Risks: The German economic recovery continues, largely driven by domestic demand and consumption. Inflation is set to continue to top the Eurozone average and the challenges for the next years will include trying to cope with a monetary policy that is too expansionary for the Eurozone’s largest economy. At the same time like for the rest of the Eurozone political risks, including the start of official Brexit talks and of course the general election in autumn will take centre stage next year amid the refugee crisis and rising support for the populist AfD.
President Obama: sanctioned Russia over email hacks by expelling 35 Russian intelligence operatives and closing two compounds. This followed and FBI/DHS report that revealed evidence of some of the electronic infrastructure and outlined the methods used to steal information. The Russians responded by stating the Obama admiration was trying to “completely ruin Russian-American relations.” This will put the new Trump administration on awkward footing and will be yet one more geopolitical risk that could destabilize the markets.

Main Macro Events Today

• Spanish HICP – Last month it came in at 0.7% and as the first of the large euro area economies to report expectations are for a rise to 0.9%.

• Chicago PMI- Here expectations are for a dip to 56.5 from the surge of 7 points in November. The October 50.6 was the weakest since May.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 2nd January 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 2nd January 2017.

FX News Today

United States: The U.S. data slate is heavy and the reports should be consistent with modest Q4 growth as the overall economy has yet to be impacted by Trump. Kicking off the year will be the December ISM manufacturing index (Tuesday). Also on tap (Tuesday) is the final December Markit PMI reading and November construction spending. Construction spending is expected to rise 0.6% after November’s 0.5% gain. Vehicle sales for December (Wednesday) are expected to inch up slightly with autos at a 5.2 mln pace. The ADP private payrolls survey (Thursday) is expected at a 175k pace, down from 216k in November. The ISM non-manufacturing index (Thursday) is projected sliding to 56.5 from 57.2 in November. The final Markit services reading is also due (Thursday). The December nonfarm payroll report (Friday) will highlight and complete the data for the first week of the new year. Expectations are for a 185k increase, after November’s 178k rise, with the unemployment rate edging up to 4.7% from 4.6%. The workweek is projected steady at 34.4 hours. Average hourly earnings are expected to rebound to 0.2% after dipping 0.1% in November. The FOMC minutes to the December 13, 14 policy meeting are on tap (Wednesday). Though the report would usually be highly anticipated by the markets, its importance has been diminished by the dot-plot showing estimates for three quarter point hikes in 2017, and by the fact that the usually dovish Chair Yellen seemed fully supportive of the more hawkish stance.
Canada: December employment report, trade deficit both highlight the week on Friday. Other highlights include the industrial product price index (Thursday). The Ivey PMI is also due (Friday), while the RBC’s manufacturing index for December (Tuesday) is the first report out of the gate for the new year. There is nothing from the Bank of Canada this week.
Europe: Final PMI readings are not expected to bring any real surprises and are expected to confirm manufacturing confidence for the Eurozone (Monday) remains healthy with the index at 54.9. ESI economic sentiment indicator (Friday) is expected to rise to 106.9 versus 106.5 in November. Also due are German manufacturing orders (Friday) and German jobless rate (Tuesday)
UK: 2017 will be a challenging year for the UK, both economically and politically. Creeping price pressures, caused by the weaker pound, which most economists expect will erode real household income, and Brexit-related uncertainty, which has already been suppressing business investment, are expected to manifest in slowing growth momentum. The U.K. calendar this week features the December PMI surveys and the BoE lending data for November.
China: The Caixin/Markit manufacturing PMI (Tuesday) is forecast at 50.7 from 50.9 December services PMI (Thursday) is seen improving to 53.5 from 53.1
Japan: Will be shut through to Tuesday for a bank holiday. The December Nikkei/Markit manufacturing PMI (Wednesday) is expected to dip to 51.8 from the previous 51.9 reading. December auto sales and the Markit services PMI are also due (Thursday).
Australia: The November deficit (Friday) is expected to narrow to -A$0.3 bln from -A$1.5 bln in October. There is nothing from the Reserve Bank of Australia.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 3rd January 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 3rd January 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets outside of Japan moved higher after a stronger than expected China Caixin manufacturing PMI. Eurozone stock markets already started the year with modest gains yesterday in very quiet trade, as most of the world remained closed for New Year celebrations. Japanese markets remained closed today, but elsewhere markets are back and it seems stocks are beginning the year in a good mood and optimistic on the growth outlook. Yesterday’s final Eurozone manufacturing PMI readings were also positive and today’s Swiss and U.K. numbers are also expected to confirm that output continues to expand at a solid pace. This should leave the German jobless rate at record lows, while French and German inflation data is set to accelerate sharply on base effects and with risks to forecasts on the upside after the very high Spanish number from last Friday. After the ECB continued ongoing QE purchases for the whole of this year, this doesn’t change the immediate policy outlook, but could temporarily dent the uptrend in Bund futures, that was sparked by Draghi’s affirmation of more asset purchases. The short end meanwhile will remain supported by the abolition of the deposit rate limit.
Overnight Update: China – Caixin Manufacturing PMI for December: 51.9 (expected 50.9, prior 50.9). The figure is close to a 4 year high for the Caixin/Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ index (PMI). The figure has been above 50 for six consecutive months and Output, at 53.7, rose at the fastest pace since January 2011. There was evidence of strong domestic demand although export orders remained “sluggish”. AUDUSD rose to session highs of 0.7230 on the positive news.
Eurozone manufacturing PMI confirmed at 51.9, as expected. The renewed uptick from 53.7 in November means the year ended on a high note and the numbers confirm that the recovery continues and for once on a relatively broad base. with Italy actually surprising on the upside this morning, which shows that the referendum result did little to dent optimism.
ECB Coeure:. The Executive Board member said in an interview with Germany’s Boersenzeitung that personally he doesn’t “exclude upside risks to inflation in 2017 if the reflationary impact of the new U.S. policies dominates“. Coere said “there are signs of an acceleration in headline inflation, above all because of the increase in oil and commodity prices”, adding that the ECB is “still waiting for signs that core inflation is on the rise and will clearly exceed 1%”. He admitted that the ECB’s assessment of the balance of risks, including for inflation, is shifting”, while stressing that the planned cut in monthly purchase volumes this year is “an adjustment not an exit”, and that a phasing out of purchases hasn’t even been discussed yet. Coeure said that a discussion will be needed about normalisation of monetary policy but it needs to be initiated carefully”. And indeed, after the ECB confirmed that asset purchases will remain in place until the end of the year this is not a discussion that will be needed any time soon.

Main Macro Events Today

• German HICP – German HICP is seen rising to 1.1% y/y from 0.7% y/y. The better than expected Spanish number last Friday suggests a risk on the upside also for the overall Eurozone HICP rate (due Wednesday), which is expected to rise to 1.0% y/y from 0.6%. This is still far below the ECB’s definition of price stability, but the data will confirms that there is no real risk of a deflationary spiral, although after the ECB already confirmed its policy parameters for 2017 that won’t change the immediate policy outlook. It will add further ammunition though to the growing number of central bankers warning that real tapering can’t be delayed for too long, without undermining financial stability throughout the Eurozone.

• US ISM Manufacturing PMI – December ISM is out today and should post a headline increase to 53.5 from 53.2 in November and 51.9 in October. Producer sentiment is continuing to benefit from diminished inventory headwinds and the rebound in oil prices. This should allow sentiment to end the year on a firm footing with the ISM-adjusted average of all measures holding at 53, steady from November and up from 51 in October.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 4th January 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 4th January 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets are mostly higher, led by Japan, where the Nikkei closed with a 2.5% gain after an upward revision to the manufacturing PMI reading and underpinned by catch up trades, after yesterday’s holiday. The Hang Seng underperformed and showed a -0.27% loss in late trade, with energy stocks under pressure after the front end WTI future fell back below USD 53 per barrel. See details below. U.S. and U.K. stock futures, however, are moving higher, after broad gains on most markets yesterday and as a strong round of world PMI releases underpins growth optimism and risk appetite. At the same time inflation may be moving higher which is pushing up yields, although even if Eurozone HICP inflation is expected to jump higher and clear the 1.0% mark today, we don’t see the ECB reversing its decision to extend QE purchases through to the end of the year. Today’s European calendar also has Spanish inflation data, the final reading of the Eurozone Services PMI and from the U.K. BoE money supply growth and lending data.
US Data Yesterday: The U.S. ISM rise to a 2-year high of 54.7 from the prior high of 53.2 that was also seen last June left the ISM further above the 7-month low of 49.4 in August, and last December’s 48.0 expansion-low. The mix of available sentiment surveys should allow the ISM-adjusted average to sustain the November surge to a 16-month high of 53 from 51 in October and 50 in August and September. We saw a 49 expansion-low in January and February, and previously in October of 2012. We’re seeing a factory sector rebound that is lifting most producer sentiment and consumer confidence measures in the face of rising oil prices, a reversal in the inventory headwind, and hopes for deregulation and fiscal stimulus in 2017. The economy still faces lingering headwinds from a sluggish world economy, a strong dollar, and still-high oil inventories. U.S. construction spending popped 0.9% higher in November after a 0.6% October gain (revised up from 0.5%), though September was bumped lower to -0.2% from unchanged. The headline reading is better than expected. Spending is up 4.1% y/y. Strength was broad-based.
European Data Yesterday: German HICP jumped to 1.7% y/y, the highest rate since 2013, and starting to eye the 2% limit for price stability. That the headline rate would jump higher at the end of the year on base effects was widely expected, but the number did still come in far above the median forecast and the preliminary breakdown confirmed that most of it was due to energy price increases, which turned to 2.5% y/y in December, from -2.7% y/y in November. German jobless numbers dropped -17k in December, much more than anticipated and with the November decline also revised to -6k from -5k, which confirms that the improvement on the labour market continued at the end of 2016. The jobless rate remained at a record low of 6.0%, with much of the remaining gap due to structural issues and a mismatch of skills on the demand and supply side. The December UK manufacturing PMI smashed forecasts in rising to 56.1 from 53.6 in November, which was revised up from 53.4. The median forecast had been for a 53.4 outcome, while the 56.1 reading is the best since June 2014, indicating brisk expansion in the sector.
US Stocks and Oil swing wildly: Another swing and a miss on Dow 20k has sent stocks scrambling lower, accompanied by a reversal in the dollar, which has reversed lower as well. WTI crude has also doubled back in the melee, falling 2% $52.60 after climbing over 2.5% to clear $55.0 after its probe over $55 earlier (swing of nearly 5%) amid concerns about Libya upping production. Ford announced plans to cancel a $1.6 bln factory in Mexico, perhaps as collateral damage from the Trump tweet storm with U.S. execs, though Ford is up 2.5% (-5.5% 1-year return). GM was criticized by Trump for manufacturing its Cruze model in Mexico, which the company downplayed. The Dow stalled out at 19,938.5, eased below 19,800 before rallying into the close to end the day at 19,881.

Main Macro Events Today

• Eurozone HICP – The much higher than expected German and Spanish inflation numbers forecasts for the overall Eurozone reading have been increased significantly to 1.3%, from 0.6% y/y in the previous month. Yields jumped higher on the report yesterday, but while the numbers add to the argument of the critics of Draghi’s expansionary policy, it is unlikely to see the ECB changing its mind on the QE expansion, as the uptick in inflation was already factored into central bank forecasts. It will however bring the question of when the ECB will start “real tapering” that is start a program of cutting back purchases with the intention of phasing them out, back to the agenda.

• FOMC Minutes – Though the report would usually be highly anticipated by the markets, its importance has been diminished by the dot-plot showing estimates for three quarter point hikes in 2017, and by the fact that the usually dovish Chair Yellen seemed fully supportive of the more hawkish stance. There’s little the minutes can show that we don’t already think we know. Surprises are unlikely but still potentially high influential.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 5th January 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 5th January 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets moved mostly higher with Japanese markets underperforming as the Dollar weakened in the wake of yesterday’s Fed minutes, and a strengthening Yen weighed on Nikkei and Topix. U.S. stock futures are also down, but U.K. futures are moving higher after a pretty lacklustre session in Europe yesterday. Re-inflation and stronger than expected growth numbers have been a difficult mix for markets this week, and even though the ECB has already re-affirmed its commitment to maintain QE purchases through to the end of the year, concerns that the central bank will be running into supply constraints are resurfacing. The calendar today has U.K. Services PMI, Swiss CPI and Eurozone PPI.
FOMC Minutes: FOMC minutes showed a gradual approach was appropriate for now. But upside risks were weighed. About half of the Committee included fiscal policy in their forecasts, although “many” stressed the “considerable uncertainty” over the timing, size, and composition of any fiscal stimulus, not to mention the mix of tax, spending, and regulatory changes. “Many” judged a faster pace of hikes might be necessary. As to downside risks, it was noted that trade barriers, dollar appreciation, and weaker than expected fiscal policy measures could limit growth. The minutes reflected more of an uncertain tone than an overly hawkish one.
Overnight Data: China December Caixin Services PMI: 53.4 (prior 53.1) & Composite 53.5 (priors 52.9) services PIM at 17 month high and the composite is at near 4 year highs. Both manufacturers and services providers see steeper increases in activity, Overall employment declines slightly, due to ongoing job shedding across the manufacturing sector, Input price inflation remains sharp, but companies raise their selling prices at softer pace. AUDUSD ticked up on the news and continued selling pressure on USD at 14 day highs at 07320.
US Data Yesterday: U.S. vehicle sales are topping expectations in December thanks to a combination of deep incentives and heavy demand for trucks, likely putting overall sales on pace to post record gains in 2016. This equates with a pace of 18.2 mln units (SA), matching the highest level in 7-years. Among the larger gains were by GM at 10% vs 4.4% forecast; Nissan 9.7% vs -2.8% expected and VW at 20.3% vs 5.6%. Fiat Chrysler was the worst performer at -10.0%, but even they beat -14.0% estimated. Analysts had been forecasting a pace of 17.4-17.5 mln units, near last year’s record 17.5 mln. Though consumer confidence is on the rise heading into 2017, inventories are up amid a slow new-model rollout and incentives have been as large as $4k/vehicle in December. Trucks accounted for 64% of year-end volume, pushing the average price up to a record $35,309 for a gain of 1.5% y/y. Rising loan and lease rates are also a potential speed bump.

Main Macro Events Today

• US Non-Manufacturing ISM – December service sector producer sentiment is out today and should reveal a headline decline to 56.8 from 57.2 in November. Overall, producer sentiment in December remained strong with most measures posting increases. The ISM-adjusted average of all measures looks poised to hold at 53 for a second month, up from 51 in October and 50 as recently as September and August.

• US Initial Jobless Claims – Initial claims data for the week of December 31 is also out today and should show an improved headline of 260k (median 262k) from 265k the week prior and 275k in the week before that. More broadly, claims are poised to average a still firm 262k in December, up from 252k in November and 258k in October.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 9th January 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 9th January 2017.

Main Macro Events This Week

Though the December U.S. jobs report was largely plain vanilla, it was good enough to support rising “animal spirits.” The surprise headliner of the report, however, was the 0.4% surge in earnings, which caught the markets’ attention. The question is, was this a one-off gain, or is it a harbinger of a pick-up in wage and price pressures that will push the FOMC into a more aggressive rate hike path? Several Fed voters have already begun to incorporate some Trump stimulus into their projections and are expected to continue to voice that opinion as Republicans are itching to expeditiously move ahead with their pro-business agenda in 2017.
United States: The back-loaded U.S. economic calendar in the wake of the slightly inflationary December employment report could be a little anti-climactic, but there will be a host of potentially relevant fundamental data with retail sales headlining on Friday. Expectations are for 0.7% increase and 0.5% ex- autos. Prior to that anchor release, consumer credit (Monday), Wholesale sales are projected to rise 0.5% in November (Tuesday). The weekly MBA mortgage and EIA energy inventory reports (Wednesday) are on tap next. Import prices are set to increase 0.8% (Thursday) in December given the rebound in oil prices from long-term depressed levels, after their prior 0.3% drop, while export prices are pegged to sink 0.2%. Initial jobless claims should snap back 19k to 254k for the week ended January 7 after their inter-holiday plunge the week prior. With retail sales will come December PPI also due (Friday), Inflation data will be closely monitored after the uptick in earnings/wage growth in December payrolls. Business inventories are forecast to rise 0.7% in November, while preliminary Michigan sentiment may rise to 98.5 in January.
Fedspeak: Fed Chair Yellen returns this week on Thursday. Already Saturday Minneapolis Fed dove Kashkari took part in a “Too-Big-To-Fail” panel and Governor Powell participated in a panel on “Low Interest Rates and Financial Markets.” Monday has updates from Boston dove Rosengren and Atlanta Fed centrist Lockhart. Thursday also brings Philly Fed’s Harker on the economic outlook, Chicago’s Evans on the economy and policy, and St. Louis Fed hawk-dove Bullard on the economy and policy. Harker speaks again on economic mobility on Friday-the-13th.
Canada: Policy relevant economic data remains front and center on Canada’s calendar in the run-up to the January 18 BoC announcement and Monetary Policy Report. The BoC’s Business Outlook Survey is first out of the gate this week (Monday). The slate of housing figures is heavy, with housing starts (Tuesday), building permits (Tuesday), the new home price index for November (Thursday), December Teranet/National HPI (Thursday) and December existing home sales (Friday) all due.
Europe: The year is only a week old, but the focus has switched as inflation is making a comeback and survey indicators continue to come in higher than expected. The central bank just got its QE extension in on time ahead of the uptick in HICP rates, which of course come mainly on the back of base effects from energy prices. The calendar this week will not really add anything new to the outlook for 2017 and data are mainly backward looking with November production numbers from Germany, France and the Eurozone as a whole, as well as final French December HICP readings. The latter are not expected to bring a major surprise and we expect the headline rate to be confirmed at 0.8% y/y, which is in line with consensus. The most up to date number is the initial estimate of full year 2016 GDP from Germany on Thursday, where we look for an acceleration in the overall growth to 1.9% from 1.7% in 2015.
UK: Incoming data, particularly last week’s December PMI surveys yesterday, which smashed forecasts, continue to point to a robust economic rebound from the brief dip that was seen in the month or so following the vote to leave the EU last June. Sentiment in sterling markets has been correspondingly upbeat in early-year trading; the FTSE 100 equity index clocked record highs last week and the pound held its ground on foreign exchanges (though remains 17% below pre-EU vote levels). The calendar this week is highlighted by production figures for November (Wednesday). The BRC retail sales report for December is also up (Tuesday), along with November trades figures (Wednesday) and a smattering of house price data through the week. None of the data is likely to challenge prevailing sentiment.
China: December CPI and PPI (tentatively due Tuesday) are penciled in at 2.1% y/y from 2.3% for the former, and 4.5% y/y from 3.3% for the latter. December new yuan loans (tentatively Tuesday) are expected to slip to CNY 700.0 bon from 794.6 bln. Trade data (due Thursday or Friday) should show modest improvement in the deficit to -$44.0 bln in December.
Japan: Markets will be closed Monday for the “Coming of Age” holiday. The calendar picks up Tuesday with December consumer confidence, which we expect will improve slightly to 41.0 from 40.9. November’s current account surplus (Thursday) is forecast to have narrowed to JPY 1,400.0 bln from JPY 1,719.9 bln previously. December bank loans (Thursday) should be up 2.5% y/y from 2.4% in November.
Australia: The calendar remains thin this week, Retail sales (Tuesday) are projected to improve 0.5% following the identical 0.5% increase in October. There is nothing from the Reserve Bank of Australia. Projects are for steady rates from the RBA in 2017, as the economy gradually adjusts to the post-resource boom environment. The next RBA meeting is in February.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 10th January 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 10th January 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian stock markets were down, with Japan under pressure (closed down -0.79%at 19,301) as the Yen strengthened. The ASX is also in the red, while the Hang Seng outperformed ahead of economic data out of China later in the week. U.S. and European stock futures are heading sound after already being under pressure yesterday while oil prices are little changed, with the front end USOil future trading around the USD 52 per barrel mark. Bond futures remain supported as stock markets correct and while the drop in Sterling has for now underpinned the multinational dominated FTSE it may not be long before inflation concerns pick up again and weigh on Gilt futures. There is nothing in today’s calendar to shake up markets, with only inflation data out of Norway, French production and Swiss unemployment.
FX Update: The dollar has traded steady-to-softer, losing moderately versus the euro and yen, but gaining versus a still-underperforming sterling. USDJPY logged a two-session low of 115.19 as Tokyo markets returned to the fray following a long weekend in Japan. The conjecture in the market is that higher oil prices and recent weakness in the yen have eroded BoJ easing expectations, which has shifted the relative yield dynamic. USDJPY’s low from last week at 115.07 is in the frame. A breach below here would put the pair in one-month low territory, and a daily close below here would signal a shift to a downside bias. Supports are at 114.77-80 and 114.40, the latter of which is the present situation of the 50-day moving average. EUR-USD clawed out a 12-day peak at 1.0627, before ebbing back under 1.0600 to the upper 1.05s. Cable traded softer versus yesterday’s closing levels, but remained above yesterday’s 10-week low at 1.2124 ,while EUR-GBP clocked a fresh eight-week high at 0.8735. Weakness in the pound was sparked by weekend remarks form PM May, who suggested that a “hard” Brexit is the course being set.
Overnight Data: UK Shop price index rose more than expected to 1.0% in December as UK shoppers spent significantly more on food in the week before Christmas. Poor Retails sales figures for Australia failed to den the AUDUSD rally; Retail Sales grew only 0.2% in November against expectations of a 0.4% rise. Mixed data from China as PPI index beat expectations at 5.5% (4.5% expected) and CPI missed expectations at 0.2% MoM and 2.1% YoY when 0.3% and 2.3% were expected respectively. Better news from Japan as consumer confidence grew to 43.1 from 40.9 last time and beat expectations of 41.3 (consumer confidence in the US is expected at 98.5 on Friday)
US Data Yesterday: US consumer credit surged $24.5 bln in November, stronger than expected, after a $16.2 bln increase in October (revised from $16.0 bln). Non-revolving credit paced the rise, jumping $13.5 bln versus $13.8 bln in October (revised from $13.7 bln). But, revolving credit was up a solid $11.0 compared to the prior $2.4 bln gain (revised from $2.3 bln) — it’s the largest increase in this measure since February 2001, with the record $19.5 bln increase set in April 1998.
Fedspeak: Lockhart said it’s too early to estimate fiscal policy effects, in his written remarks. That’s a contrast from some of his colleagues who priced in some upside risk due to fiscal expectations. And he added it is unclear whether the economy is positioned for markedly higher growth. GDP is forecast at around 2% over the next few years, less optimistic than several others on the Committee, and below the markets’ hopes. Inflation is projected to move to 2.0% this year or next. He still looks for a gradual pace of rate hikes. It’s time for the FOMC to shift to “more of a support role” as the new administration comes into play.

Main Macro Events Today

• 
  
  
  • US Wholesale Trade – Wholesale trade data for November is out today and should reveal a 0.4% sales headline for the month with inventories up 0.9% as indicated by the advance economic indicators report. This follows respective October figures of 1.4% for sales and -0.1% for inventories. Data in line with forecasts would leave the I/S ratio ticking up to 1.31 from 1.30 in October.

• 
  
  
  • Canada Housing Starts – Housing starts are expected to improve to a 190.0k unit rate in December from the 184.0k pace in November. The ever volatile multi-unit category was the source of the decline in total starts during November: multi-unit starts fell 7.7% to 105.9k in November while singe-detached units were steady at 60.9k. Underlying starts growth remained steady in November, as the six-month moving average was 199.1k from 199.6k in October. Permits, also due Tuesday, are expected to reveal a 5.0% drop in value during November after the 8.7% gain in October.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 11th January 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 11th January 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Asian markets managed to move higher, with Hong Kong outperforming as stronger metals boosted miners. The Yen retreated, which helped to underpin gains in Japan, while mainland China underperformed. Oil prices are up on the day, but the front end WTI future is still below USD 51 per barrel, after the latest slump and U.S. and U.K. stock futures are down. Sterling up from recent lows, but still down against most currencies, which should continue to underpin equities, (UK100 closed at a record high for the ninth consecutive day yesterday) but is also reviving inflation concerns. This added to Gilt underperformance versus the Bund yesterday and saw yields moving higher. In the Eurozone spreads were volatile throughout the day yesterday, and yield curves steepened as the short end outperformed again, highlighting that as inflation is making a comeback, the ECB is struggling to get a grip on the long end despite QE, although the most recent dip in oil prices, if sustained should help to dampen inflation concerns somewhat and base effects should see headline rates peaking in Q1 this year, before falling back somewhat. The local calendar has U.K. trade and production data, as well as a German 10-year Bund sale, but markets will be looking mainly to Trump’s eagerly awaited press conference.

FX Update: Forex markets have been hunkering down ahead of the U.S. president-elect Trump’s press conference, his first since the election, scheduled later on Wednesday, looking for some clarity on the political and fiscal agendas of the incoming administration. USD-JPY has settled around 116.00, above last week’s one-month low at 115.07, and below the pre-Christmas trend high at 118.66. EUR-USD has become entrenched in a narrow orbit of 1.0550, holding just below the 50-day moving average at 1.0571. We see Trump’s conference as something of a wildcard, though there is a chance he will manage to reignite the Trumpflation rally. This would follow bond guru Gross remarks of yesterday, where he argued that a sustained break in the U.S. T-note yield above 2.60% — which Gross reckons is much more important than Dow 20,000, $60-a-barrel oil or parity in EUR-USD — would mark the beginning of a “secular bear bond market.” Such a scenario would fuel another upward adjustment in dollar valuations against most other currencies.

Kuroda and Abe meet: BOJ’s Kuroda says meeting with Abe was a regular one and they discussed the global economy, specifically the US economy. They touched on Trump but no actual reference was made to the president-elect and both see the US economy growing “steadily”. No reference or report on the FOMC rate hike cycle. USDJPY continues to pivot around the 116.00 handle.

Overnight Data: The U.S. wholesale report was modestly disappointing, with a 0.4% November sales rise after a downwardly-revised 1.1% (was 1.4%) price-led October surge, alongside a 1.0% inventory gain that exceeded the 0.9% increase in the advance indicators report, following a 0.1% drop in October. Wholesale sales undershot inventories in November but are still outpacing inventories overall in Q4 as oil prices rebound, following Q3 weakening in both sales and inventories. The Q4 GDP growth estimate has increased slightly to 1.6% from 1.5%, but this trims Q1 GDP estimate to 2.3% from 2.4%. Expectations are now for a $14 (was $10) bln inventory addition and a still-lean $21 bln accumulation rate that extends the $16.5 bln bounce in Q3, as inventories are now reversing a big five quarter inventory headwind that culminated in a $9.5 bln liquidation rate in Q2. U.S. JOLTS report showed job openings rose 71k to 5,522k in November after dropping 180k to 5,451k (revised down from 5,534k). The rate edged up to 3.7% from 3.6% (revised from 3.7%). November hirings rose 59k to 5,219k following the 39k increase to 5,160k (revised from 5,099k). The rate was steady at 3.6% (October was revised up from 3.5%). Quitters rebounded 41k to 3,064k from -29k to 3,023k (revised from 2,986k). The rate was unchanged at 2.1%. The JOLTS report is an important one to Fed Chair Yellen, but this is rather old news for the markets and hence didn’t move the ticker.

Fedspeak: Fed hawk Lacker announced his retirement for October 1 on the Richmond Fed’s website. He’s been the bank’s president since August 2004, but has been with the Richmond Fed since 1989. He has also been a serial dissenter, opposing the consensus in all of his voting turns. In his last stint in 2015 he dissented twice against the consensus unchanged policy stance. And back in 2012 he opposed the FOMC’s outcome in all 8 meetings. He was the lone opponent in 2009, but it was with respect to QE and the purchase of Treasuries. But back in 2006 he dissented four times, each for a 25 bp hike. There’s going to be a lot of turnover at the Fed during Mr. Trump’s administration. He has two open governorships, while Atlanta Fed’s Lockhart already announced he’ll be stepping down in February. Meanwhile, Chair Yellen has indicated she plans to continue through her term which ends early in 2018.

Main Macro Events Today

• Donald Trump Press Conference – Scheduled for 16;00 GMT. No a data release but by far the most significant event of the day. A wide ranging event is expected including Tax reform, immigration controls and reference to the Wall and climate change. Of particular interest to traders will be the incoming administrations (Mr Trump specifically) approach to trade and the impact particularly on the Mexican and Chinese currencies. Trade War Round 1?

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 12th January 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 12th January 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Stock markets headed south in Asia overnight, with Japan underperforming and the Nikkei closing with a 1.19% loss as the strength of the yen weighed on exporters. The first press conference of the incoming U.S. administration disappointed and initially sparked a fresh bout of volatility, with investors taking a wait and see stance now to get a clearer picture of what lies in store going ahead. U.S. and U.K. stock futures are also heading south and the Bund future, which outperformed yesterday, lost much of its gains during the PM session. Eurozone spreads narrowed yesterday and the German yield curve flattened as the short end underperformed, while the U.K. yield curve steepened on short end outperformance. Today’s calendar has the first estimate of German 2016 GDP, seen at 1.9%, up from 1.7% in 2015. The calendar also has Eurozone production data for November, as well as the final reading of French December HICP and the ECB’s minutes for the Dec meeting.

The Dollar got Donalded: Trump conducted a test of the intelligence community by having a meeting with those agencies without letting any of his staff know and news of that meeting was subsequently leaked, he said. That would certainly explain his skepticism about the intelligence community’s motivations and secrecy. His conference roamed wildly across the range from fake news, to reaffirming the Mexico wall will remain an urgent priority (the peso plunged through 22.0), along with the relationship with Russia, Pharma pricing, hacking protections, the Trump Trust, Veteran’s affairs, etc. The conference was wide ranging and characteristically frank, leaving the press on their heels and markets chomping in ranges, but not essentially charting a new course. He was all rather vague and the markets reacted accordingly, the USD fell from its heady heights and continued to decline overnight. EURUSD sits at 1.0630, USDJPY under 114.50 (at one month lows) and Cable over 1.2240.

Carney: BoE Governor Carney said Brexit-related risks have “gone down” during testimony, in terms of what he described as the immediate scale of risks, before a parliamentary select committee. However, he warned that a disorderly Brexit process, where there is no transitional arrangements, could lead to “unforeseeable moves in markets.”

Fedspeak: NY Fed’s Dudley spoke on reforming the culture in banking, in his written text on “Remarks at the Culture Imperative — An Interbank Symposium.” He noted the NY Fed was prompted to work on this issue after the LIBOR manipulations and misconduct highlighted the importance of culture. He believes evidence points to an industry wide problem, across firms and countries. Also, he stressed that reforms must be industry driven, while not denying the importance of regulation. He did not discuss monetary policy.



Main Macro Events Today

• German 2016 GDP The first estimate for full year 2016 GDP is as usual released before the Q4 numbers are out, but with expectations for a robust fourth quarter growth rate, is widely seen at 1.9%, up from 1.7% in the previous year. The numbers will confirm that Germany is on a solid growth path, and confidence indicators suggest that this will remain the case in the first quarter this year, although going ahead, there are numerous downside risk.

• US Import & Export Prices December trade price data should reveal a 0.7% increase for headline import prices and a 0.2% decline for export prices on the month. This follows respective November figures which had import prices down 0.3% with export prices down 0.1% for the month. Oil prices resumed there rebound in December so there is some upside risk to import prices.

• US Initial Jobless Claims Initial claims data for the week of January should reveal a 252k headline, up from last week’s 235k which marked a low extending all the way back to the1970’s. Claims are expected to average 258k in January, about matching December’s 257k average and up from 252k in November.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

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Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 13th January 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 13th January 2017.

FX News Today

European Outlook: Aftershocks from President-elect Trump’s campaign-like press conference, which had weighed on global stock markets and yields started to recede late in the U.S. session and U.S. equities managed to recover part of their losses. Asian markets rebounded led by Japan as the Yen weakened and U.S. and U.K. stock futures are also higher, while the front end Nymex future is trading around USD 53 per barrel. Bund futures already started to head south in the after hour session yesterday and core yields are likely to move higher in early trade. The European calendar only has the BoE’s credit conditions survey and the final reading for Spanish December HICP, leaving markets to focus on global developments.

FX Update: The dollar is trading softer into the London open, but remains comfortably above the post-Trump press conference lows. USD-JPY has ebbed to the upper 114s after failing to sustain gains above 115.00, but remains over a big figure up on yesterday’s one-month low at 113.75. EURUSD has firmed up to around 1.0630 after logging an intraday low in Asia at 1.0603, but still remains some 50 pips below yesterday’s one-month peak. While doubts have now crept in about U.S. president-elect Trump’s reflation plans following his fractious press conference on Wednesday, returning some support to the dollar have been Fed speakers, who were not been shy yesterday in warning of upside risks to policy in 2017, with the debate hottest over how quickly to hike rather than when to do so. Another batch of U.S. data today will help shape Fed policy expectations, though Trump may have his work cut out to reignite the sputtering Trumpflation trade.

U.S. Reports revealed surprising firmness in December export prices alongside a restrained oil-boost to import prices, and a largely expected 10k rise in initial claims to a still-firm 247k that signals a tight start for 2017. For trade prices, the relative firmness in export versus import prices trimmed Q4 GDP growth prospects, though we left our estimate at 1.6%. For claims, gyrations through the New Year’s week can be attributed to holiday volatility, though we’re encouraged that claims are starting January below the 258k December average. Next week’s BLS survey week reading will likely undershoot the 275k December BLS survey week figure. We expect a 180k January nonfarm payroll rise that matches the average monthly gain in 2016, though this average faces a likely downward bump with the next report’s annual revisions.

Fedspeak: Chair Yellen’s speech contained surprises and keynote comment was that sh e thought “short term I would say I don’t think there are serious obstacles. I see the economy as doing quite well” Fed’s Bullard maintained a rather circumspect outlook on policy and the economy. He projects only limited movement in rates, reiterating his views noted earlier of perhaps only 1 tightening this year and noting there is little reason to alter policy as the Fed nears its goals. There shouldn’t be any undue pick up in inflation. Job growth is likely to slow this year and next. And in terms of the new administration’s policies, he said it’s questionable what will actually occur. Bullard is not a voter this year. Kaplan: Fed should be removing accommodation in 2017, with growth forecast at greater than 2%, even without any fiscal boost. The U.S. is pretty near full employment and inflation is heading to 2%, though there’s some slack in the labor market and more demand than supply for skilled workers. He expects regulatory review and tax reform to help boost productivity, along with infrastructure investment. Kaplan said he will be scrutinizing decisions on trade, immigration and Obamacare for any impact on growth, while manufacturing plants need to be allowed flexibility in supply chains. This about par for the course, with the Fed evidently predisposed to normalize rates in 2017 all else equal.


Main Macro Events Today

• US Retail Sales – December retail sales data is out today expectations are for a 0.7% headline with the ex-autos aggregate up median 0.5% on the month. This follows November data which had the headline up 0.1% and ex-autos up 0.2%.

• US PPI Data – December PPI data has expectations to post a 0.3% with the core index up 0.2% on the month. This compares to respective November figures which posted a 0.4% headline and a 0.4% increase for the core. Despite the fact that oil prices remain at depressed levels we did see a 14.0% climb in WTI prices in December which could lend some support to the headline.

• US Michigan Consumer Sentiment – The first release on January Michigan Sentiment should reveal a headline increase to 98.5 (median 98.4) from 98.2 in December and 93.8 in November. Consumer confidence measures have been posting improvements since the election and the January IBD/TIPP poll has already reveal an increase for the month with a rise to 55.6 from 54.8 in December.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

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Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 16th January 2017.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 16th January 2017.

Main Macro Events This Week

U.S. markets are closed Monday for Martin Luther King Day. This will be a busy week for traders, with the inauguration of president-elect Trump on Friday headlining. While that won’t be market moving in and of itself, investors and traders anxiously await clarity his ambitious agenda to be outlined in his 100-day plan once he assumes office.

United States: This week’s data calendar is busy and includes several important releases. The December CPI report (Wednesday) will be key after the surge in the inflation expectations. Also on tap this week is December industrial production (Wednesday). The Empire State data (Tuesday) and The Philly Fed reading (Thursday) will be watched closed as these are as close to real time indicators as possible. December housing starts (Thursday) and other data this week includes the January NAHB homebuilder sentiment survey (Wednesday), and November Treasury capital flows (Wednesday).

Fedspeak: Considerable Fed presence this week; Chair Yellen will make two appearances (Wednesday & Thursday), Dudley (Tuesday). Dallas Fed’s Kaplan, Minneapolis Fed’s Kashkari both (Wednesday). Fed’s Harker, a voter, speaks on the economic outlook (Friday). Also, Williams will give closing remarks (Friday) at the Bay Area Council meeting. Meanwhile, the Fed releases its Beige Book (Wednesday) for the January 31, February 1 FOMC meeting. It will be interesting to see what references are made regarding the post-Trump surge in equities and the pick-up in several of the manufacturing and sentiment numbers.

Canada: The main event is the Bank of Canada’s rate announcement and Monetary Policy Report (Wednesday). Expectations are for no change to the 0.50% rate. Manufacturing (Thursday) is expected to reveal a 1.0% rise in shipments after the 0.8% drop in October. The December CPI (Friday) is projected to be unchanged. Retail sales (Friday) are expected to rise 0.5% in November after the 1.1% gain in October.

Europe: The focus this week is on the first ECB meeting of the year. Draghi is widely expected to keep policy on hold. German PPI inflation (Friday) is expected to jump to a 0.9% y/y clip from 0.1% y/y, and the data will confirm that for at least Germany. German ZEW Economic Sentiment for January is due (Tuesday) and is expected to see the headline rate rise to 18.0 from 13.8 in December. Other data releases include Eurozone trade and BoP numbers for December, which will be too backward looking to change the overall outlook.

UK: December inflation data (Tuesday), labour market figures covering November and December (Wednesday), and official December retail sales (Friday). Carney speaks Monday and PM May on Wednesday at Davos; these two could be fundamental to the performance of Sterling this week.

China: Releases are back loaded to Friday. Q4 GDP highlights and is expected to print a 6.7% y/y rate, unchanged from Q3 clip. In fact, 6.7% has been the reported rate of growth for each of the three quarters of 2016 so far. December industrial output is forecast at 6.0% y/y, slightly slower than the 6.2% seen previously, and would be the slowest since July. December retail sales are penciled in at a still robust 10.6% y/y from 10.8% in November. And, December fixed investment is seen at a 8.2% y/y rate, little changed from 8.3% previously.

Japan: Revised November industrial production is due (Tuesday), having originally posted a 1.5% monthly gain.

Australia: The calendar has the employment report (Thursday), expected to reveal a 15.0k gain in December following the 39.1k rise in November. The unemployment rate is seen steady at 5.7%. Housing finance (Tuesday) is projected to fall 2.0% m/m in November after the 0.8% decline in October. There is nothing from the Reserve Bank of Australia.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Stuart Cowell
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.