Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

[Resolve]

US Dollar Index (DXY): Outlook for 2025–2026

The year 2025 delivered significant volatility spikes for the US Dollar Index (DXY).

A prime example is the April shock linked to the so-called “Liberation Day tariffs”, which marked the most powerful blow to the US dollar on an annual basis. The introduction by Trump of new aggressive tariffs (including a universal 10% tariff) was perceived by the market not as protectionism, but as a threat of a global trade war and economic isolation. As a result, DXY plunged by approximately 2% in a single day and continued to decline over the following months.

Equally important was the shift in the Federal Reserve’s policy stance and the launch of an interest rate cutting cycle. During the first half of 2025, the policy rate was held at 4.5%, but starting in September it was reduced three times, reaching 3.75%.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

[Resolve]

GBP/USD and EUR/GBP Struggle Near Resistance, Caution Builds

GBP/USD failed to climb above 1.3500 and corrected some gains. EUR/GBP is declining and trading below the 0.8725 support zone.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP Analysis Today
- The British Pound is showing bearish signs below 1.3500.
- There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.3470 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen.
- EUR/GBP is declining and showing bearish signs below 0.8725.
- There is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at 0.8705 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh decline after it failed to stay above 1.3500. The British Pound traded below 1.3460 to enter a short-term bearish zone against the US Dollar.

There was a clear move below 1.3435. The pair even settled below 1.3430 and the 50-hour simple moving average. A low was formed at 1.3414, and the pair is now consolidating losses. On the upside, the GBP/USD chart indicates that the pair is facing resistance near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.3502 swing high to the 1.3414 low at 1.3435.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

[Resolve]

Gold Jumps After Events in Venezuela

At the market open on Monday, 5 January, gold price (XAU/USD) formed a bullish gap. The sharp rise was driven by market reaction to confirmed reports of U.S. military intervention in Venezuela and a forced change of power in Caracas.

News of the capture of Nicolás Maduro by U.S. special forces pushed gold prices up to $4,430 during the European session, and the upward trend may persist into the U.S. trading session. The chart indicates rising demand for safe-haven assets, as market participants may be concerned about further escalation.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

[Resolve]

XTI/USD Chart Analysis: Oil Price Volatility on the Rise

Events in Venezuela over the weekend have led to a sharp increase in oil price volatility following the market open. As the chart shows, during the European session the ATR indicator rose to levels last seen before the start of the Christmas period.

It is possible that the opening of US trading could further increase price swings, with the trend potentially developing in either direction:

- Bearish scenario: if American companies gain access to Venezuela’s oil reserves (both in the ground and in storage facilities), this could lead to an increase in supply on the global market.

- Bullish scenario: risks include reactions from China, OPEC+, as well as the possibility of a guerrilla warfare scenario and other difficult-to-predict developments.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

[Resolve]

GBP/USD Hits 14-Week High

As the GBP/USD chart shows, the pound rose above 1.3560 today — its highest level since September 2025.

The pound’s strength may be driven by expectations of a tighter monetary policy from the Bank of England in 2026, which seems reasonable given that inflation has remained above 3% since April 2025.

At the same time, market participants may be concerned about the implications of US actions in Venezuela, prompting a shift of capital into other currencies and contributing to dollar weakness.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

[Resolve]

S&P 500 Shows Indecision Near All-Time High

As the S&P 500 chart (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) shows, this morning the price approached yesterday’s high at A, but then sharply reversed downward (indicated by the arrow), forming a lower low at B.

This resembles a Double Top pattern, which can be interpreted as market indecision near the all-time high. Traders are weighing risks and opportunities that depend on US actions in Venezuela:

- Bullish factor: access to the country’s resources could act as a growth driver for the US economy. Yesterday, financials and energy sectors were the strongest performers.
- Bearish factor: related to geopolitical risks and the potential involvement of the US in a protracted conflict.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

[Resolve]

Intel (INTC) Shares Surge Following Chip Unveiling

Intel (INTC) shares jumped above $44.30 yesterday, marking a 21-month high. The rally was driven by news from CES 2026, where the company unveiled its new Core Ultra Series 3 processors (codenamed Panther Lake). These are Intel’s first consumer chips manufactured using the advanced Intel 18A process technology.

Market participants interpreted the announcement as evidence that Intel’s ambitious turnaround strategy to restore its technological leadership is gaining traction. The launch of the 18A node suggests that Intel is once again capable of competing with TSMC on the leading edge of semiconductor manufacturing.

According to media reports, several analysts have raised their price targets for INTC shares, as the new technology opens up the prospect for Intel to secure contract manufacturing orders from major players such as Nvidia and Apple.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

[Resolve]

AUD/USD Is Under Bearish Pressure

As indicated by the AUD/USD chart, the Australian dollar has fallen below the 0.6680 level today, with the decline from Wednesday’s high (A) exceeding 1.1%.

Key bearish drivers include:

→ Declining inflation expectations. Data released on Wednesday showed a sharp slowdown in Australian inflation to 3.4%. This has removed the likelihood of a February rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia, which had previously maintained a hawkish stance.

→ Uncertainty surrounding China. The economy of Australia’s main trading partner is failing to deliver the expected strong growth, with today’s PMI data coming in mixed. This raises doubts about Chinese demand for Australian commodities and weighs on the AUD, which is often viewed as a proxy for the Chinese economy.

→ NFP-related risk aversion. Ahead of today’s US labour market report, investors are shifting into risk-reduction mode and increasing demand for so-called safe-haven US dollars amid concerns over potential negative surprises.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

[Resolve]

Market De-Risking Ahead of the US Employment Report: Euro and Pound Under Pressure

European currencies have retreated from local highs amid a decline in risk appetite and ahead of the release of key US labour market data. Market participants are opting to reduce exposure before the publication of the employment report, which could set the direction for the US dollar and adjust expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s next policy steps. As major players return following a period of reduced liquidity, the market is becoming more sensitive to fundamental drivers, while caution is increasing ahead of the release of high-impact statistics.

Overall, the market remains in a wait-and-see phase, characterised by restraint and a strong focus on upcoming US macroeconomic data. The employment report may become a key reference point, capable of shaping future risk allocation and setting the tone for movements in both the dollar and European currencies.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

[Resolve]

Defence Sector Shares Advance

Recent developments, including the operation in Venezuela and unrest in Iran, are driving gains in defence sector equities. This week in particular:

→ The US President proposed increasing the military budget from USD 901 billion in 2026 to USD 1.5 trillion in 2027, providing a strong outlook for revenue growth across defence contractors and the military-industrial complex.

→ White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt stated that the US President and his team are discussing a range of options regarding Greenland, noting that the use of US armed forces always remains an option available to the Commander-in-Chief.

A clear example of the market’s reaction is the sharp rally in Lockheed Martin (LMT) shares. While trading at the start of the year opened near USD 483.50, the price exceeded USD 540 at the peak of yesterday’s session.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

[Resolve]

Gold Price Breaks Above $4,600 for the First Time

At the opening of Monday’s session on 12 January, gold (XAU/USD) gapped higher and briefly moved above the psychological $4,600 level, setting a new all-time high.

Bullish drivers:

→ Geopolitical tensions. Following developments in Venezuela, market attention has shifted to unrest in Iran and renewed discussion around the United States’ interest in Greenland, whether through purchase or other means.

→ Renewed friction between the White House and the Federal Reserve. Over the weekend, Jerome Powell stated that he had received threats of criminal prosecution, possibly linked to his stance on interest-rate cuts, which differs from President Trump’s view.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

[Resolve]

Market Analysis: AUD/USD and NZD/USD Pull Back, Caution Creeps In

AUD/USD failed to stay in a positive zone and declined below 0.6700. NZD/USD is also moving lower and might extend losses below 0.5700.

Important Takeaways for AUD/USD and NZD/USD Analysis Today
- The Aussie Dollar started a fresh decline from well above 0.6740 against the US Dollar.
- There is an expanding triangle forming with resistance at 0.6705 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen.
- NZD/USD declined steadily from 0.5800 and traded below 0.5760.
- There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at 0.5750 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD at FXOpen.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen, the pair struggled to clear 0.6765. The Aussie Dollar started a fresh decline below 0.6750 against the US Dollar.

The pair even settled below 0.6720 and the 50-hour simple moving average. There was a clear move below 0.6680. A low was formed at 0.6663, and the pair is now consolidating losses. There was a minor recovery wave above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.6766 swing high to the 0.6663 low.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

[Resolve]

The US Dollar Index (DXY) Turns Lower

Capital flows into gold amid rising geopolitical and broader market risks, together with Jerome Powell’s remarks about potential criminal prosecution, have not only driven XAU/USD to record highs (as discussed earlier today) but have also put pressure on the US Dollar Index (DXY).

Markets are also digesting the latest Non-Farm Payrolls data released on Friday. The figures pointed to a slowdown in the US economy, with actual job growth at 50K versus expectations of 66K. This reinforces the case for interest-rate cuts and acts as a bearish factor for the US dollar.

As a result, the dollar index is moving lower today.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

[Resolve]

Pin Bar Candle: How Traders Identify and Use It

A pin bar candle is one of those patterns traders talk about a lot, but often without much precision. Used properly, it can offer clues about rejected price levels and shifting control between buyers and sellers. This article breaks down what a pin bar candle actually represents, how traders identify pin bars, and how traders can develop a pin bar trading strategy.

Key Takeaways
- A pin bar candle is a reversal pattern defined by a small real body and a long upper/lower wick showing strong price rejection.
- Pin bars carry more weight when they form at clear support, resistance, or failed breakout levels.
- Higher timeframes tend to produce more useful pin bar signals than lower ones.
- The length and placement of the wick matter more than the candle colour.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

[Resolve]

S&P 500 Hits a Record – But Is Everything Really So Positive?

As the S&P 500 chart shows (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen), the index touched 6,990 yesterday, marking an all-time high for the first time. The psychological 7,000 level is now within close reach. Optimism may be driven by the start of the earnings season, which could confirm continued growth in corporate profits.

But is the outlook entirely positive?

From a fundamental perspective, several factors could raise concerns:

→ News surrounding a criminal case involving Jerome Powell. This may be perceived as pressure on the Fed Chair and a threat to the central bank’s independence, potentially undermining the investment climate.

→ The upcoming release of CPI data (scheduled for today at 16:30 GMT+3). A scenario in which the figures point to rising inflation cannot be ruled out, which could trigger a sharp sell-off in equity markets.

→ Risks of the US becoming involved in new military conflicts.

From a technical standpoint, bearish signals are also emerging on the chart.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

[Resolve]

Silver Prices Stabilise Near Record Highs

As the XAG/USD chart shows, the price of silver per ounce is consolidating near its all-time high, which lies above $85.

Bullish sentiment dominates the market, as concerns over the independence of the US Federal Reserve, heightened geopolitical tensions, and other factors have fuelled demand for safe-haven metals. According to media reports:

→ Official authorities are exerting pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates, having opened a criminal case against its Chair. Powell, in turn, described these actions as a “pretext” for influencing the decisions of an independent financial institution.

→ Traders are also closely monitoring the escalation of protests in Iran, which could lead to US military involvement, alongside President Trump’s statements about the annexation of Greenland. In the aftermath of the operation in Venezuela, such scenarios are increasingly being viewed as realistic.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

[Resolve]

SMT Divergence in Trading: Concepts and Strategies

SMT divergence is a way of comparing related markets to spot subtle shifts in momentum that price alone can hide. Instead of focusing on indicators or single charts, it looks at how correlated instruments behave relative to each other at key highs and lows. When those relationships break down, it can reveal useful information about market pressure, positioning, and potential turning points. This article explains how SMT divergence works and how traders apply SMT divergence strategies.

Key Takeaways
- SMT divergence is a market analysis concept that occurs when two correlated instruments fail to make matching highs or lows, signalling a potential shift in momentum and underlying market pressure.
- Its core components are correlated instruments, a clear price mismatch at key levels, and institutional positioning.

SMT divergence is context-dependent. It is used near extremes and alongside market structure, rather than as a standalone signal.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

[Resolve]

Dollar Rises Amid Fed Uncertainty And Geopolitical Risks

The US currency maintains its upward momentum against a backdrop of macroeconomic uncertainty, political pressure on the Federal Reserve and rising geopolitical risks. Investors continue to favour the dollar as a "safe-haven asset", despite mixed signals from the regulator and a muted market reaction to recent political developments in the United States. An additional source of support remains the stability of US Treasury yields, which, after recent volatility, have consolidated near local levels, reflecting a wait-and-see stance among market participants.

The overall backdrop for the FX market remains tense. The investigation involving the Fed Chair and the growing political pressure have intensified discussions about the regulator’s independence, adding uncertainty to interest-rate expectations. At the same time, geopolitical risks and instability in certain regions continue to underpin demand for the dollar and limit interest in higher-risk currencies. In the near term, USD/JPY and USD/CAD dynamics will be shaped by the balance between US yields, signals from the Fed and political developments in both the US and Japan, with markets remaining highly sensitive to any new news catalysts.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

[Resolve]

Market Analysis: EUR/USD Retreats as USD/JPY Rally Puts 160 in Sight

EUR/USD failed to clear 1.1700 and trimmed some gains. USD/JPY managed to reclaim 158.00 and might aim for more gains.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/JPY Analysis Today
- The Euro started a downside correction from the 1.1700 pivot zone.
- There is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at 1.1660 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen.
- USD/JPY climbed higher above 158.50 and 159.00.
- There is a bullish trend line forming with support near 158.50 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh increase from 1.1620. The Euro cleared a few key hurdles near 1.1650 to move into a positive zone against the US Dollar.

The pair settled above 1.1680 and the 50-hour simple moving average. A high was formed at 1.1698, and the pair started a downside correction. There was a drop below 1.1650 and the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.1618 swing low to the 1.1698 high.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

[Resolve]

WTI Oil Price Rises Above $60

As the XTI/USD chart shows, the price of a barrel climbed above $60 this week, reaching a one-month high.

The main bullish driver has been large-scale anti-government protests in Iran, which could lead to a change of power and/or military action. Trump has voiced support for the protesters and threatened 25% tariffs on all countries trading with Iran. Market participants fear that Iranian oil supplies (around 1.5–2 mb/d) could simply disappear, or that the Strait of Hormuz could be closed.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.