Forex Market Commentary By TitanFX

[titanfx]

Key Highlights
• Euro moved lower against most major currencies surrounding all drama in the Euro area because of Greece situation.
• German and Euro area ZEW Economic sentiment will be released today, which is likely to impact the Euro pairs in the near term.
• Reserve bank of Australia released meeting minutes earlier today which caused swing moves in the Aussie dollar.

German ZEW Economic Sentiment
The Euro struggled during the past couple of hours against the US dollar and traded lower towards the 1.1300 support area. There was no major release lined up in the Euro area recently, but there is a critical event scheduled during the London session today. The German and Euro area ZEW Economic sentiment will be published. The forecast is of a gain in February 2015 from 48.4 to 55.0 for German ZEW Economic sentiment. The Euro ZEW Economic sentiment is also expected to register an increase from the last reading of 45.2 to 51.3.

Technical Analysis
The Euro collapsed earlier during the Asian session against the US dollar and traded towards the 1.1300 support area. There was a bullish trend line on the hourly chart, which was broken recently, and ignited a downside reaction in EURUSD. Moreover, the pair is now trading below the 100 and 200 hour MA’s, which is a negative sign in the near term.

If the pair moves higher from here, then both MA’s might act as a resistance, followed by the broken trend line. The 50% fib retracement level of the last leg from the 1.1427 high to 1.1317 low is also around the same area. So, in short there is a major resistance forming around the 1.1380 level.

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Posted by Aayush Jindal - 'Titan FX Currency Analyst'

 

[titanfx]

FOMC Minutes Aftermath And Dollar Reaction

Key Highlights
• US dollar declined to some extent, as the FOMC meeting minutes failed to live up to the expectation of the market.
• Euro and the British pound surged higher and traded close to 1.1420 and 1.5450 respectively.
• Japanese Merchandise Trade Balance Total released by the Ministry of Finance registered a lower than expected trade deficit with a reading of ¥-1,177.5B.
• GOLD managed to pop higher and cleared an important resistance around the $1210 level.

FOMC Meeting Minutes
The FOMC meeting minutes turned out to be a negative event for the US dollar. The market was expecting the Federal Reserve to throw in some signs for a potential rate hike as soon as July this year. However, the outcome was a bit disappointing one, as the FOMC minutes show that the committee was coiled and favored a dovish tone than hawkish. This did not go down well with the US dollar buyers, as it was seen trading lower against the Euro and the British pound. Moreover, GOLD also moved higher and formed a nice bullish pattern on the 4-hour chart.

Technical Analysis
GOLD recently traded lower and tested the $1200 support area where buyers managed to hold the downside in the near term. After the FOMC meeting minutes GOLD blasted higher and cleared the $1210 resistance area to challenge $1220. On the upside, an immediate resistance can be seen around the 23.6% fib retracement level of the last leg from the $1307 high to $1197 low. There is also a bearish trend line on the 4 hour chart, which might act as a hurdle if prices head higher from the current levels.

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Posted by Aayush Jindal - 'Titan FX Currency Analyst'

 

[titanfx]

Euro Nervous Ahead of German IFO Index

Key Highlights
• Euro gained this past week against the US dollar and it looks like it might continue to trade higher.
• German business sentiment index will be released by the CESifo Group, which is expected to register a rise from the last reading of 106.7 to 107.7.
• In the US, the Existing Home Sales will be released by the National Association of Realtors which is forecasted to register a reading of 5.03M in January 2015.
• Swing support in EURUSD can be seen around 1.1350 where buyers might step in.

German IFO Business Climate Index
Today during the London session, as the Germany IFO business sentiment index will be released by the CESifo Group. The forecast is slated for an increase from the last reading of 106.7 to 107.7 in January 2015, compared to the preceding month.

Technical Analysis
The Euro fell recently towards the 1.1280 support area this past week against the US dollar, but later managed to hold the ground traded back higher. The upside reaction from the mentioned level was very sharp, which ignited more than 80 pips move. There is a bearish trend line on the hourly chart, which is acting as a hurdle for the pair.

However, one positive point to note is that the EURUSD pair is sitting well above the 100 and 200 hour moving averages. So, if the pair corrects lower from the current levels, then initially it might find support around the 200 hour MA followed by 50% fib retracement level of the last leg from the 1.1280 low to 1.1430 high.

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Posted by Aayush Jindal - 'Titan FX Currency Analyst'

 

[titanfx]

Improved Chinese PMI Might Help Risk Sentiment

Key Highlights
• Currencies such as the New Zealand and the Aussie dollar were seen trading higher against the US dollar.
• Chinese HSBC China Services PMI was released by Markit Economics, which registered a healthy reading of 52.0 compared to the last reading of 51.8.
• In Japan, the Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was released by Markit Economics, which registered a contraction with a reading of 48.5 in February 2015.
• GOLD managed to find buyers around the $1200 level with resistance ahead at $1210-15.

Chinese HSBC Services PMI
Earlier during the Asian session, the Chinese HSBC Services PMI was released by Markit Economics. The expectation was not of that high, compared to the last reading of 51.8. However, the outcome was a positive one, as the Chinese HSBC services PMI registered an expansion with a reading of 52.0 in February 2015. This was one of the highest gains in the past five months.

Technical Analysis
GOLD recently fell sharply to trade as low as $1188 where buyers managed to protect the downside. It is currently moving/correcting higher towards an important resistance area at $1210. There is a bearish trend line on the daily chart as well, which is coinciding with the mentioned resistance level.

Moreover, just above the highlighted trend line the 100-day simple moving average is aligned with the 23.6% fib retracement level of the last leg from the $1307 high to $1188 low.

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Posted by Aayush Jindal - 'Titan FX Currency Analyst'

 

[titanfx]

US Dollar Spikes Post Chinese CPI

Key Highlights
• US dollar continued to gain strength and even stronger than expected Chinese consumer price index failed to lift the risk sentiment.
• Chinese Consumer Price Index was released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China, which posted an increase of 1.2% in February 2015, compared to the preceding month.
• In terms of the annual change the Chinese CPI climbed by 1.4% in February 2015.
• Pairs like AUDUSD and NZDUSD took a hit and traded lower during Asia.
• EURUSD created a new low and fell below the 1.0800 support area.

Chinese CPI
Earlier during the Asian session, there was an important release lined up in China. The Consumer Price Index was released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China. The forecast was lined up for an increase of 0.8% in February 2015, compared to the preceding month. However, the outcome was above the forecast, as Chinese rose by 1.2%.

Technical Analysis
There were a couple of important support levels formed around the 1.0840-20 area in the EURUSD pair, which were cleared recently. There was a bullish trend line formed on the hourly chart as well, which was broken by the Euro sellers. Currently, the pair is attempting a recovery from the 1.0780 support area. However, it might find resistance around the broken trend line, which is now coinciding with the 50% fib retracement level of the last drop from the 1.0904 high.

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Posted by Aayush Jindal - 'Titan FX Currency Analyst'

 

[titanfx]

Euro Facing Uphill Task Ahead

Key Highlights
• Euro continued to move lower against the US dollar and the British pound as sellers gain control.
• In the UK, the Rightmove House Price was released, which posted an increase of 1% in March 2015.
• EURGBP found support around the 0.7000 handle recently, but facing an important resistance on the upside.

UK Rightmove House Price
Earlier today, the UK Rightmove House Price representing the strength of the UK housing market, which can be considered as the economy as a whole due to property prices' sensitivity to changes in the business cycle was released. The outcome was a bit lower compared to the last time gain of 2.1%. The UK Rightmove House Price increased by 1% in March 2015.

When we consider the yearly change, then the Rightmove House Price rose by 5.4% in March, compared to the last gain of 6.6%. The report stated that “the average new seller asking price just £30 below June 2014 record as high demand reduces the impact of tighter lending controls introduced in the April 2014 Mortgage Market Review”. Moreover, the number of newly-listed properties increase by around 3.2% in March 2015, compared to last month.

Technical Analysis
As mentioned, the EURGBP pair recently fell close to the 0.70 support area where the Euro buyers just managed to hold the downside. The pair is currently attempting to make a move back higher, but there is a bearish trend line on the 4 hour chart, which is likely to act as a resistance for the pair.

The 50% fib retracement level of the last drop from the 0.7285 high to 0.7012 low is also around the highlighted trend line. So, in short the Euro buyers might struggle around the 0.7180 level moving ahead. The 4-hour RSI is just below the 50 level marking congestion around the mentioned area. On the downside, the 0.7100 is an immediate support in the near term.

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Posted by Aayush Jindal - 'Titan FX Currency Analyst'

 

[titanfx]

Can Chinese Manufacturing PMI Dent Risk Sentiment?

Key Highlights
• US dollar traded lower against many major currencies, as sellers were in control.
• Chinese HSBC Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) released by the Markit Economics posted a contraction of 49.2 in March 2015.
• USDCHF pair was seen correcting higher after finding buyers around the 0.9640 support area.

Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI
Earlier during the Asian session, the Chinese HSBC Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), which is an early indicator of economic health in the Chinese manufacturing sector was released by the Markit Economics. The forecast was lined up for a minor decline from the last reading of 50.7 to 50.5 in March 2015. However, the outcome missed the mark and posted a contraction with a reading of 49.2. This was definitely on the disappointing side, and might weight on the risk sentiment in the near term. We already witnessed a small pullback in the US dollar with the USDCHF pair gaining back bids.

Technical Analysis
The US dollar declined sharply recently against the Swiss franc, and tested the 0.9640 support area where buyers managed to protect the downside. The pair is now correcting higher with initial resistance around the 23.6% fib retracement level of the last drop from the 0.9982 high to 0.9640 low. However, there is a bearish trend line formed as well on the hourly chart, which is likely to stall the upside in USDCHF moving ahead.

On the downside, the recent low of 0.9640 holds the key in the short term. A break below the same might ignite more losses may be towards the 0.9600 handle. The hourly RSI is well below the 50 level, which is a warning sign.

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Posted by Aayush Jindal - 'Titan FX Currency Analyst'

 

[titanfx]

Euro Nosedives Ahead of German Unemployment Report

Key Highlights
• Euro traded lower against the US dollar and a few other currencies, as sellers managed to gain momentum.
• German Unemployment Change report will be published by the German Statistics Office today, which is expected to post a decrease of -12K in March 2015.
• EURUSD nosedived and breached the 1.0800 support area during the Asian session.

Technical Analysis
The Euro performed very badly recently against the US dollar and broke an important support area around the 1.0800 levels. There is a bearish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the EURUSD pair, which is acting as a barrier. Recently, the pair climbed higher, but failed right at the highlighted trend line.

There is one more critical point to consider is the fact that the same trend line was around the 200 simple moving average –hourly, which also added to the bearish pressure. There was a major failure noted around the 1.0850 levels, which ignited a downside reaction in the near term. On the downside, a break below the recent low of 1.0780 might call for a move towards the 1.0720 support area. The hourly RSI is well below the 50 level, which suggests that the pair might continue to trade lower in the short term.

German Unemployment Report
Today, during the London session, the German Unemployment Change, which is a measure of the absolute change in the number of unemployed people in Germany using seasonally adjusted data will be published by the German Statistics Office. The market is expecting for a decrease of -12K in March 2015, compared to the preceding month in which the change was of -20K. If the outcome misses the mark, then there is a chance of more losses in EURUSD moving ahead.

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Posted by Aayush Jindal - 'Titan FX Currency Analyst'

 

[titanfx]

AUDUSD Eyeing A Short Term Break

Key Highlights
• Aussie dollar was seen trading lower against the US dollar, but there is a hope of a correction.
• Today, the Australian trade balance report was released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, which posted a trade deficit of -1,256M in February 2015, compared to the forecast of -1,300M.
• AUDUSD correcting higher and testing an important swing resistance area.

Technical Analysis
The AUDUSD pair recently traded a touch below the 0.7580 support area, and after releases during the Asian session making an attempt to correct higher. However, it faces a crucial resistance in the form of a bearish trend line on the hourly chart. The highlighted trend line is currently around the 0.7600 handle.

So, we can say that if the AUDUSD pair manages to clear the stated level, then there is a chance of it correcting higher in the short term. The hourly RSI is below the 50 level and moving towards it, which means a double break is possible moving ahead.

A break higher could easily take the pair towards the 23.6% fib retracement level of the last drop from the 0.7883 high to 0.7568 low. On the downside, the last low of 0.7568 remains a pivot area for the pair moving ahead.
Australian Trade Balance

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Posted by Aayush Jindal - 'Titan FX Currency Analyst'

 

[titanfx]

AUDUSD Gains As RBA Holds Interest Rate

Key Highlights
• Aussie dollar surges higher against the US dollar, as the RBA kept the interest rates at 2.25%.
• AUDUSD cleared a critical resistance area to open the doors for more gains moving ahead.
• Australian Retail Sales released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics increased by 0.7% in February 2015, compared to the forecast of 0.4%.

RBA Interest Rate Decision
Earlier today, the RBA Interest Rate Decision was announced by the Reserve Bank of Australia. The market was not expecting the central bank to make any changes in the interest rates. The outcome was as expected, as the rate remained at 2.25%. The opening statement from the RBA stated that a “moderate growth in the global economy is expected in 2015, with the US economy continuing to strengthen, even as China's growth slows a little from last year's outcome”.

Technical Analysis
The Aussie dollar enjoyed good gains during the Asian session, as the economic releases in Australia were on the positive side. There was a bearish trend line on the 4-hour chart of the AUDUSD pair, which was breached recently.

US Economic Optimism Index
Today, during the NY session, the US Economic Optimism Index will be released by the Investor's Business Daily (IBD) TechnoMetrica Institute of Policy and Politics (TIPP). Let us see whether index can rise from the last reading of 49.1 or not.

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Posted by Aayush Jindal - 'Titan FX Currency Analyst'

 

[titanfx]

GBPUSD and UK CPI Aftermath

Key Highlights
• British pound looks nervous as the UK CPI report released today was below the forecast.
• UK Consumer Price Index released by the National Statistics posted a rise of 0.2% in March 2015, compared to Feb 2015.
• GBPUSD fell in an initial reaction and then later managed to trade back higher.

Technical Analysis
The British pound was seen trading lower against the US dollar earlier during the London session, as the UK CPI missed the forecast. The pair declined to test the 1.4600-1.4590 levels, which was coinciding with the 61.8% fib retracement level of the last leg from the 1.4564 low to 1.4689 high. There was sharp reaction noted around the mentioned fib level, as the pair recovered back sharply.

However, there is a bearish trend line formed on the hourly chart, which is currently acting as a barrier for the GBPUSD pair. The hourly RSI is around the 50 level suggesting that the pair is at a critical juncture.

UK CPI
Earlier today in the UK, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which helps in analyzing the price changes by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services was released by the National Statistics. The market was not expecting any rise in the UK CPI in March 2015 compared to March 2014, and the outcome was in line with the forecast as the UK CPI came in at 0%.

Price Action
The GBPUSD might trade higher moving ahead if buyers manage to clear the highlighted resistance area at 1.4660.

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Posted by Aayush Jindal - 'Titan FX Currency Analyst'

 

[titanfx]

Euro Looks to Break Higher Against Yen

Key Highlights
• Euro is following a nice bullish trend against the Japanese yen, and looks set to trade higher moving ahead.
• EURJPY has a major support formed at 129.10-20, which is likely to act as a barrier for sellers.
• Today, the Japanese Retail Trade report was released by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, which posted a decline of 9.7% in March 2015, compared to March 2014.

Japanese Retail Trade Report
Earlier today, the Retail Trade, which helps in measuring the aggregate sales made through a business location was released by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry. The market was expecting it to decline by 7.3% in March 2015, compared to the same month a year ago. However, the outcome was way below the forecast, as the Japanese Retail Trade declined by 9.7%.

Technical Analysis
As mentioned the Euro is following a bullish trend against the Japanese Yen, as there is an ascending channel formed on the 4-hour chart of the EURJPY pair. The pair is well positioned above the 100 and 200 simple moving averages (SMA), which is a positive sign in the short term.

On the upside, a break above the 130.10-20 resistance area is required for more gains in EURJPY. Let us see how the Euro buyers react moving ahead, and whether they can manage to clear the channel resistance area or not.

France Consumer Confidence
In the Euro Zone, the French Consumer Confidence highlighting the moods of the consumers, through an analysis of a sample of house will be released by INSEE. The forecast is lined up for an increase from 93 to 94 in April 2015, which if meets the expectation might lift EURJPY in the short term.

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Posted by Aayush Jindal - 'Titan FX Currency Analyst'

 

[titanfx]

USDCHF - Could finally be Start of US Dollar Weakness?

Key Highlights
• US Dollar weakened a lot against a few major currencies, including the Swiss franc as US Services PMI came below the forecast.
• US Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) released by Markit Economics declined from 57.8 to 57.4 in April 2015.
• US ISM Non-Manufacturing Index released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) managed to post a rise from 56.5 to 57.8, which was above the forecast of 56.2.
• USDCHF moved lower and traded to a new Intraday low of 0.9271

USDCHF - Technical Analysis
The US Dollar was under bearish pressure throughout the day, and it is clearly seen visible on the hourly chart of the USDCHF pair. The pair after registering a high at 0.9411 moved lower and traded below an important bullish trend line. It also settled below the 100 hourly simple moving average (SMA), which is a concerning sign in the short term.

The USDCHF pair is currently finding buyers around the 0.9270-80 support area, but it remains at risk of more declines moving ahead. If it corrects higher from here, then the broken trend line might act as a hurdle for the pair. A break below the mentioned support area could take USDCHF towards 0.9240.

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Posted by Aayush Jindal - 'Titan FX Currency Analyst'

 

[titanfx]

US Dollar Signaling Bullish Continuation

Key Highlights
• US Dollar continues to impress as it regained bullish bias against the Euro and the Aussie Dollar.
• US Initial Jobless Claims released by the US Department of Labor posted an increase from 262K to 265K, but was lower compared with the forecast of 280K.
• US Continuing Jobless Claims decreased by 28,000 to 2.23 million for the week ending April 25.
• GBPUSD stayed in a consolidation phase with a support around 1.5180.

US Initial Jobless Claims
Earlier during the American session, the US Initial Jobless Claims was published by the US Department of Labor. The market was expecting it to increase sharply from the last reading of 262K to 280K in the week ending May 2. However, the outcome was above the forecast, as the US Initial Jobless Claims rose only by 3K to 265K as per the advance figure for seasonally adjusted. The report highlighted that the 4-week moving average now stands around the 279,500, level, which is down by 4,250 compared to the previous week's unrevised average of 283,750.

GBPUSD - Technical Analysis
The British Pound was the main focus today, as the UK election is looming. The GBPUSD pair was mostly seen consolidating in a range during the London session. There is a major support formed around 1.5180-60 where sellers struggled on many occasions.

There is a perfect breakout pattern formed on the hourly chart of the GBPUSD pair. There is a contracting triangle, which looks all set for a break higher in the short term depending upon whether buyers gain control or not.

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Posted by Aayush Jindal - 'Titan FX Currency Analyst'

 

[titanfx]

GBPUSD Signaling Bullish Continuation

Key Highlights
• British Pound rocketed higher against the US Dollar, as the UK Industrial Production report came above the forecast.
• UK Industrial Production released by the National Statistics registered a rise of 0.5% in March 2015, compared with the forecast of no change.
• UK Manufacturing Production also posted a higher reading, as it rose by 0.4%.

UK Industrial Production
Today in the UK, the Industrial Production report, which measures outputs of the UK factories and mines was released by the National Statistics. The market was not expecting any change in April 2015, compared to the preceding month. However, the outcome was above the forecast, as the UK Industrial Production managed to gain by 0.5%, which was also above the last increase of 0.1%.

When we consider the year-over-year change, then the Industrial Production gained by 0.7% in April 2015, compared to the same month a year ago whereas the expectation was a 0.2% rise. The report stated that the “largest contribution to the quarterly growth came from electricity, gas, steam & air-conditioning output, which increased by 2.7%”.

Moreover, the Manufacturing Production was also above the forecast, as it increased by 0.4% in April 2015, compared to the preceding month. When we consider the year-over-year change, then the Manufacturing Production rose by 1.1% in April 2015, compared to the same month a year ago whereas the expectation was a 1% increase.

Overall, the outcome was above the forecast, and helped the GBPUSD pair to retain ground.

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Posted by Aayush Jindal - 'Titan FX Currency Analyst'

 

[titanfx]

EURJPY – Bulls In the Driver’s Seat

Key Highlights
• Euro continued to gain traction against the Japanese Yen, as buyers were in control.
• EURJPY is facing a crucial resistance around 136.40-50 area, and a support on the downside around 135.20.
• Japanese Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index released by the Bank of Japan increased by 0.1% in April 2015, compared to the preceding month.

Japanese Domestic Goods Price Index
Earlier today, the Japanese Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index, which calculate prices for goods purchased by domestic corporates in Japan was released by the Bank of Japan. The forecast was lined up for an increase of 0.1% in April 2015, compared to the preceding month. The result was as expected, but the index was lower compared to the last rise of 0.3%.

EURJPY - Technical Analysis
The Euro buyers were very aggressive recently, as they took the shared currency higher not only against the US Dollar, but also against the Japanese Yen. There was a critical event in the Euro Area, as the European Central Bank President Mario Draghi, gave a speech in which he highlighted the impact of full QE implementation.

There was no major reaction in the EURJPY pair, as it headed higher above the 136.00 resistance area. There is a crucial bullish trend line formed on the 4-hours chart, which is likely to provide support to the pair if it moves lower from the current levels. The same trend line is sitting around the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last leg from the 131.29 low to 136.41 high. Moreover, the 4H RSI is above the 50 mark, suggesting that buyers are in control.

On the upside, a break above the 136.50 level is needed for more gains in the near term. In that situation, the pair might approach 137.00.

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Posted by Aayush Jindal - 'Titan FX Currency Analyst'

 

[titanfx]

AUDJPY Trend Overwhelmingly Negative as Japanese GDP Impresses

Key Highlights
• Japanese Yen managed to gain bids against a few major currencies, including the Australian Dollar.
• Japanese Gross Domestic Product released by the Cabinet Office posted an increase of 0.6% in Q1, compared to the forecast of 0.4%.
• Australian Westpac Consumer Confidence released by the Faculty of Economics and Commerce Melbourne Institute increased by 6.4% in May 2015.

Japanese GDP
Earlier today, the Japanese Gross Domestic Product, representing the monetary value of all the goods, services and structures produced in Japan was released by the Cabinet Office. The market was expecting an increase of 0.4% in the first quarter of 2015, compared to the preceding quarter. However, the outcome was above the forecast, as the Japanese GDP rose by 0.6%.

AUDJPY - Technical Analysis
The Australian Dollar after spiking above the 97.00 resistance area against the Japanese Yen fell lower to trade near 95.50-40. The AUDJPY breached the 200 hourly simple moving average, but later managed to recover the ground.
There is an expanding triangle pattern formed on the hourly chart of the AUDJPY pair, which might act a catalyst for the pair.

On the upside, the most important hurdle is around the triangle upper trend line, i.e. coinciding with the 100 simple moving average. Moreover, the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last drop from the 97.29 high to 95.37 low is also around the 96.00-10 resistance area.


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Posted by Aayush Jindal - 'Titan FX Currency Analyst'

 

[titanfx]

AUDNZD Rebounds after Dipping Towards 100 MA

Key Highlights
• Aussie Dollar weakened against the New Zealand Dollar, but gained bids around the 100 MA (4H).
• There is a major resistance forming around 1.0750 where sellers are likely to appear.
• New Zealand Trade Balance released by the Statistics New Zealand posted a trade surplus of $123M, compared with the forecast of $100M in April 2015.

AUDNZD – Technical Analysis
The New Zealand Dollar was seen gaining pace against the Aussie Dollar during the past couple of days, as the AUDNZD pair fell close the 1.0700 level. The pair found 100 simple moving average (4-hours) around the mentioned level which is helping buyers to hold the losses. Currently, the pair is correcting higher, but facing a lot of hurdles on the upside.

There is a bearish trend line formed on the 4-hours chart, which might act as a barrier for the pair. Moreover, the 50% Fib retracement level of the last drop from the 1.0849 high to 1.0681 low is also around the highlighted trend line. In short, any major rally in AUDNZD might find sellers on the upside.

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Posted by Aayush Jindal - 'Titan FX Currency Analyst'

 

[titanfx]

EURUSD Is at a Critical Juncture

Key Highlights
• Euro after trading as low as 1.0810 moved back higher against the US Dollar.
• A nice bullish trend line is formed, which is acting as a major support for the EURUSD pair.
• Chinese HSBC Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) released by the Markit Economics came in at 49.2 in May 2015, up from the last reading of 49.1.

EURUSD – Technical Analysis
The EURUSD pair weakened this past week until it found support around the 1.0800-20 area. The pair has recovered sharply since then and currently trading above the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is a bullish trend line formed on the hourly chart, which acted as a support every time the pair moved lower.

Currently, the pair is trading around the highlighted trend line. So, it would be interesting to see how buyers react in the short term and whether they manage to defend more downsides or not. The 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last wave from the 1.0818 low to 1.1005 high is also aligned with the bullish trend line, highlighting the importance of support area.

Moreover, the 100 hourly simple moving average is also waiting below the trend line to provide support to the pair. On the upside, the 200 SMA is stalling gains in EURUSD, and if buyers managed to pierce it, the pair could climb towards 1.1100.

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Posted by Aayush Jindal - 'Titan FX Currency Analyst'

 

[titanfx]

AUDNZD Targets Fresh Lows

Key Highlights
• New Zealand Dollar gained traction recently against the Aussie Dollar, and looks set for more gains.
• AUDNZD pair is trading around the key support area, which if broken might ignite healthy losses.
• Australian HIA/AiG Performance of Construction Index released by the Australian Industry Group and the Housing Industry Association increased from 47.0 to 47.8 in May 2015.
• A major risk event scheduled today in the US, as the nonfarm payrolls report will be released by the US Department of Labor, which is expected to post an increase of 225K.

US NFP
Today, it is the NFP day, as the US nonfarm payrolls data, which presents the number of people on the payrolls of all non-agricultural businesses will be released by the US Department of Labor. The forecast is of a good gain +225K. If the outcome stays in the positive zone or above 200K the US dollar might gain bids moving ahead.

AUDNZD – Technical Analysis
The Aussie Dollar after setting a high around 1.0900 against the New Zealand Dollar moved lower, and currently down by more than 100 pips from the highs. The AUDNZD pair is currently trading around an important bullish trend line on the hourly chart, which is providing support to the pair.

The most critical point to note is that the pair has settled below the 100 hourly simple moving average, which can be considered as a bearish sign. Moreover, it is consolidating around the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the last leg from the 1.0698 low to 1.0911 high. Let us see how long the pair can continue to trade above the highlighted trend line. A break below the same might call for more losses in the near term. The next of support in the mentioned case could be around the 200 SMA.


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Posted by Aayush Jindal - 'Titan FX Currency Analyst'