Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

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XBR/USD Chart Analysis: Price Rebounds from a Seven-Week Low

On 1 December, we outlined a descending channel on the XBR/USD chart and noted that the bearish trend was driven by fading geopolitical risks. Indeed, hopes for an end to the war in Ukraine—along with the possibility of sanctions on Russia being eased—acted as a bearish catalyst.

In addition, the International Energy Agency reaffirmed its forecast for a record supply surplus and highlighted that global inventories have reached a four-year high.

Under the influence of these and other factors, such as signs of a slowdown in the Chinese economy, Brent crude fell to a seven-week low at point A. However, today the XBR/USD chart shows a bullish reversal, again triggered by geopolitics, according to media reports:

→ The United States has intercepted a sanctioned Venezuelan tanker, which Caracas described as an “act of piracy”.
→ Ukraine has struck another vessel from the “shadow fleet” linked to Russia’s oil trade.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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Silver Price Hits Historic Record Around $64

On 27 November, we suggested that silver was preparing to challenge its all-time high. Since then (marked with the orange arrow), XAG/USD has risen by roughly 18%, breaking above the psychological $60-per-ounce threshold for the first time in history.

The rally has been driven by strong retail inflows into silver ETFs, alongside expectations of a structural supply deficit by 2026 due to robust industrial demand—particularly from solar energy, electric vehicles, and data-centre infrastructure.

The weakening of the US dollar following the Federal Reserve’s decision on Wednesday also helped lift dollar-denominated silver to a new historic peak near $64.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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USD/JPY Slides Towards Key Support

A Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting is due this week, and expectations around the decision are supporting the yen today. Traders increasingly believe that the central bank may raise its policy rate by 25 basis points to 0.75%.

Moreover, according to Trading Economics, analysts expect the interest rate to reach 1% by July 2026. Senior officials in Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s cabinet are also unlikely to oppose tighter policy, as an excessively weak yen could drive up import costs and fuel inflation.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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Market Analysis: AUD/USD and NZD/USD Test Support, Break or Bounce Next?

AUD/USD is attempting a fresh increase from 0.6630. NZD/USD is consolidating and could aim for a move above 0.5800 in the short term.

Important Takeaways for AUD/USD and NZD/USD Analysis Today
- The Aussie Dollar started a minor pullback from 0.6685 against the US Dollar.
- There is a key bullish trend line forming with support at 0.6645 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen.
- NZD/USD is consolidating above 0.5765 and 0.5755.
- There is a major bullish trend line forming with support at 0.5765 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD at FXOpen.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen, the pair formed a base above 0.6600. The Aussie Dollar started a decent increase above 0.6630 against the US Dollar to enter a short-term positive zone.

The pair struggled above 0.6680 and recently corrected some gains. The recent low was formed at 0.6632. The pair is now consolidating and facing resistance near the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.6677 swing high to the 0.6632 low at 0.6655 and the 50-hour simple moving average.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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S&P 500 Index: Chart Analysis After Friday’s Sell-Off

Trading on 12 December was overshadowed by a sharp decline in the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen), with the session low approaching December’s previous trough.

Among the key fundamental drivers behind Friday’s drop was the market reaction to Broadcom’s quarterly report. Shares (AVGO) plunged more than 10%, possibly as investors aggressively took profits in tech stocks, concerned that the AI hype may be overheated.

A review of the 4-hour chart of the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) suggests that Friday’s negative sentiment may have begun to ease, as the index is now recovering. Overall, this presents an interesting picture from a price-action perspective.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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The Santa Claus Rally: Meaning, History, and Expected Market Impact in 2025

The Santa Claus rally is a seasonal phenomenon that refers to the rise in the stock market at the end of each year. While it is a repeated pattern, it has exceptions that are caused by a range of factors.

Why does Christmas push the stock market up? Why are there exceptions? What can happen in the market in 2025? In this article, we try to answer all these questions. Read on to learn more about the Santa Claus stock market rally.

What Is the Santa Claus Rally?
The Santa Claus rally, or simply the Santa rally, refers to a seasonal trend where stock markets often rise during the last five trading days of December and the first two trading days of January. For instance, Santa Claus rally dates for 2025 and 2026 spans from 24 December 2025 to 5 January 2026, covering the final five trading days of 2025 and the first two trading days of 2026, with markets closed on 25 December 2025 and 1 January 2026.

First identified by Yale Hirsch in 1972 in the Stock Trader’s Almanac, this phenomenon has intrigued traders for decades. While not a guaranteed outcome, it has shown a consistent pattern in market data over the years, making it a point of interest for those analysing year-end trends. This trend isn’t limited to the US; global indices often experience similar movements, further highlighting its significance.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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Market Insights with Gary Thomson: UK Jobs, US NFP & CPI, and BoJ Rate Call You Can’t Ignore

In this video, we’ll explore the key economic events and market trends, shaping the financial landscape. Get ready for insights into financial markets to help you navigate the week ahead. Let’s dive in!

In this episode of Market Insights, Gary Thomson unpacks the strategic implications of the week’s most critical events driving global markets.

Key topics covered in this episode:

— UK Unemployment Rate
— US Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
— US Inflation Rate
— BoJ Interest Rate Decision

Gain insights to strengthen your trading knowledge.




Watch it now and stay updated with FXOpen.

Don't miss out on this invaluable opportunity to sharpen your trading skills and make informed decisions.

Disclaimer: This video represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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Why Do Stocks Go Up and Down?

Stock prices rise and fall every minute, and at first glance the movement can look chaotic. Understanding what affects the stock market gives context. News, earnings reports, broader economic shifts, interest rate decisions, and investor behaviour all influence price movement in different ways.

In this article, we'll consider the forces that influence prices over time and why markets react the way they do.

What Causes Stocks to Go Up and Down? Key Takeaways
- Stock prices change because supply and demand shift. When buying pressure outweighs selling, prices rise, and the opposite happens when sellers dominate.
- Short-term price movement often reacts to headlines and sentiment, while long-term movement usually reflects fundamentals and broader economic trends.
- Core factors that affect stock prices include economic data, corporate earnings, market sentiment, monetary policy, and global stability.
- Structure, risk awareness, and avoiding emotional decisions can support more consistent navigation of market movement.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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EUR/NZD Pulls Back From Its December High

Today the EUR/NZD rate touched the 2.4000 level — the highest reading since late November — but then saw a fairly sharp pullback. Fundamentally, the heightened volatility is driven by a combination of factors.

The euro (EUR) is showing strength because:
→ industrial production in the euro area unexpectedly rose by 0.8% (above forecasts), easing recession fears;
→ the market expects a more measured tone from the European Central Bank amid stabilising data. The meeting will take place on Thursday, 18 December.

On the other hand, the New Zealand dollar (NZD) has come under pressure:
→ a report published on 9 December by the New Zealand Treasury (the Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update) delivered a gloomy outlook: the economic recovery is stalling, and unemployment could rise to 5.5%;
→ prices for dairy products (the country’s main export) are falling, undermining the resilience of the “kiwi”.

That said, the EUR/NZD chart suggests that the scope for further upside may be limited.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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Trump’s Comments Spark Rally in Cannabis Stocks

Shares of cannabis-related companies have surged sharply in recent days, as what had previously been market rumours received official confirmation.

According to media reports:
→ The US President confirmed his intention to reclassify cannabis as a Schedule III substance, which would designate it as less dangerous. Such a move could boost funding for the cannabis industry and related scientific research, while also easing criminal penalties. “We are looking at this very carefully,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office.
→ The White House’s decision to reclassify cannabis would also remove the impact of Section 280E of the US tax code, which has limited profitability for companies in the cannabis sector.

Among the top gainers was shares of Canadian firm Cronos (CRON), which climbed to its highest level since late 2022 yesterday.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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Market Analysis: GBP/USD Back In Demand as USD/CAD Slides Further

GBP/USD started a fresh increase above 1.3350 and 1.3400. USD/CAD declined and is now consolidating losses below 1.3800.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and USD/CAD Analysis Today
- The British Pound is eyeing more gains above 1.3430.
- There is a key bullish trend line forming with support at 1.3390 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen.
- USD/CAD started a fresh decline after it failed to stay above 1.3800.
- There is a connecting bearish trend line with resistance at 1.3780 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen, the pair formed a base above the 1.3300 level. The British Pound started a steady increase above 1.3350 against the US Dollar, as discussed in the previous analysis.

The pair gained strength above 1.3380 and the 50-hour simple moving average. It even cleared the 1.3400 handle and tested 1.3450. It is now consolidating gains below 1.3430. There was a minor pullback below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.3354 swing low to the 1.3456 high, and the RSI dipped below 50.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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USD/JPY and USD/CAD Under Pressure After Weak US Labour Market Data

The US jobs report for November, released yesterday, reinforced the downward momentum in the dollar. The Department of Labor reported that non-farm payrolls rose by just 64,000, only slightly above analysts’ expectations and signalling a fragile recovery in the labour market. At the same time, the unemployment rate climbed to 4.6%, exceeding both forecasts and previous readings, while October data will not be published due to a disruption in statistical collection following the shutdown. Weak US retail sales in October, which were flat instead of rising as expected, add to the picture of economic cooling and further weigh on the dollar.

Against this backdrop, the US currency weakened noticeably against major peers, including the Japanese yen and the Canadian dollar. USD/JPY traded below the key 155.00 level yesterday, reflecting yen strength amid deteriorating US economic prospects and increased demand for safe-haven assets. USD/CAD also moved lower and is trading below 1.3800, as the Canadian dollar draws support from improved sentiment towards Canada’s economy and ongoing pressure on the greenback.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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Tesla (TSLA) Shares Close at a Record High

On Tuesday, 16 December 2025, Tesla shares closed at a new all-time high, breaking above the $488 level.

As a result, TSLA:
→ surpassed its December 2024 peak;
→ is up by roughly 125% from this year’s lows;
→ made Elon Musk the first person in the world whose net worth has exceeded $600 billion.

Why are TSLA Shares Rising?
Elon Musk has officially confirmed that Tesla has begun testing driverless robotaxis in Austin, Texas, without safety monitors in the vehicle. This marks an important step towards the large-scale deployment of the Robotaxi concept.

Despite a decline in electric vehicle sales in November (following the removal of tax incentives by the new US administration), TSLA shares continue to rise as market participants are pricing in Tesla’s potential dominance in artificial intelligence and autonomous transport — a development that could unlock fundamentally new revenue streams for the company.

Supporting this outlook, several investment banks have raised their price targets for TSLA. For instance, Mizuho analysts lifted their target to $530.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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The US Dollar Index (DXY) Rebounds from a Two-Month Low

A week ago, we:
→ updated a system of two trend channels;
→ identified signs of selling pressure dominance;
→ outlined a scenario in which price could slide towards the lower boundary of the blue channel, potentially acting as key support.

As the arrow on the chart shows, this scenario largely played out:

→ The US dollar index fell to a two-month low yesterday. The decline was driven by economic news, including weak US housing data. Both housing starts and building permits came in below expectations, reinforcing the view that the US economy is losing momentum.

→ Today, the DXY is rebounding sharply amid sterling weakness, after UK consumer price index (CPI) data revealed a sharp slowdown in inflation to 3.2%, versus a 3.5% forecast.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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Sterling Consolidates Ahead of the Bank of England Decision

Sterling is consolidating as markets await the Bank of England’s interest rate decision, while investors’ attention is gradually turning to tomorrow’s meeting of the Bank of Japan. The UK currency is moving cautiously, as markets have largely priced in a 25-basis-point cut in the Bank Rate to 3.75% at today’s meeting. Expectations of easing strengthened after UK inflation unexpectedly slowed to 3.2% in November — the lowest level in recent months and below analysts’ forecasts.

Market pricing implies an almost 100% probability of a rate cut, with some participants also factoring in the possibility of further adjustments in 2026 if inflation and labour-market data continue to weaken.

GBP/USD is fluctuating within a narrow range ahead of the announcement, reflecting a balance between pressure on the pound from expected monetary easing and broader market caution before the BoE decision. Consolidation is also evident in GBP/JPY, although the pair remains above key levels around 208.00. Traders are staying cautious ahead of tomorrow’s Bank of Japan meeting, where most forecasts point to a potential 25-basis-point rate hike to 0.75% — a move that would mark a significant shift in Japanese policy.

Such expectations are supported by recent economist surveys and signs of firmer business sentiment and inflation pressures. A BoJ hike would add further pressure on sterling versus the yen, as higher Japanese yields make the currency more attractive.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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Oracle (ORCL) Shares Fall Below $180

Yesterday, Oracle (ORCL) shares dropped by 5% following reports that investment firm Blue Owl Capital had withdrawn from financing a $10bn data centre project in Michigan.

The collapse of the deal raises questions over Oracle’s ability to meet its commitments under large-scale contracts (including a $300bn agreement with OpenAI) without further straining its balance sheet.

According to media reports, the company’s total debt has climbed to $111bn. The recent share price decline reflects growing concerns that Oracle’s “credit bubble” may struggle to withstand the AI arms race, making it increasingly difficult for the company to secure funding for its ambitious construction projects.

As a result:
→ ORCL shares fell below $180 for the first time since mid-June;
→ the chances of returning to the previously established ascending channel now look slim.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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Gold Price Analysis: Price Retreats From Record Highs

As the XAU/USD chart shows, gold rallied yesterday to near its October all-time high around the 4,380 level, before pulling back (as indicated by the arrow).

The surge in volatility was driven by a combination of factors:

→ Expectations of US rate cuts. According to media reports, data released yesterday showed that inflation slowed to 2.7% in November, below the 3.1% forecast, while core CPI eased to 2.6%, the lowest reading since March 2021. Markets are currently pricing in roughly a 25% chance of a rate cut in January, with a cut by April seen as almost certain.

→ Geopolitical tensions. Traders are closely monitoring developments linked to Venezuela, where the risk of an armed conflict involving the United States has increased. Market participants also reacted to statements from UK and European politicians ahead of the EU summit.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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Natural Gas Prices Fell in Late December

On 4 December, while analysing the XNG/USD chart, we highlighted the rally in natural gas prices towards a three-year high and noted that the price had entered a resistance zone formed by:

→ the upper boundary of a broad descending channel (shown in red);
→ the $4.800/MMBtu level, near which a peak was formed in March;
→ the psychological $5.000/MMBtu mark.

As indicated by the arrow:
→ this resistance cluster proved effective, and after an attempt to break above the $5.000 psychological level, the uptrend reached its climax;
→ following the appearance of a bearish gap on 8 December, selling pressure took control, leading to a break below the orange ascending trend line and a decline in US natural gas prices.

From a fundamental perspective, the pullback has been driven by several factors:

→ Seasonality. Weather forecasts for the US holiday period point to above-average temperatures, reducing demand for heating and power generation.

→ Rising production. According to Trading Economics, natural gas output in the continental United States reached 109.7 billion cubic feet per day in December, maintaining the record levels seen in November. In addition, EIA data show that gas inventories remain 0.9% above the current five-year average.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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Market Analysis: Gold Breaks to Record High as WTI Crude Seeks Rebound

Gold price started a fresh surge above $4,350 and traded to a new all-time high. Crude oil is recovering and might rise toward the $58.50 resistance zone.

Important Takeaways for Gold and WTI Crude Oil Prices Analysis Today
- Gold price rallied to a new all-time high and traded above $4,395 against the US Dollar.
- A key bullish trend line is forming with support at $4,334 on the hourly chart of gold at FXOpen.
- WTI Crude oil is recovering losses and trading above $56.20.
- There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance at $56.00 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen.

Gold Price Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of Gold at FXOpen, the price formed support near $4,240. The price remained in a bullish zone and started a fresh increase above $4,300, as mentioned in the previous analysis.

The bulls pushed the price above $4,360 level and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, it traded to a new all-time high at $4,397. The price is still showing bullish signs above $4,380, and the RSI is above 70.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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Gold Price Breaks Above $4,400 for the First Time

As the XAU/USD chart shows, gold has climbed above $4,400 today, setting a new all-time high.

On Friday, when analysing the gold chart, we highlighted a triangle formation and noted strong selling pressure near the previous record high around $4,380, set in October.

However, over the weekend geopolitical tensions intensified following reports that the United States detained an oil tanker linked to Venezuela. At the turn of the week, this resulted in a clear triangle breakout (as indicated by the arrow):
→ during the second half of Friday’s session, gold moved above the upper boundary of the pattern;
→ at the Asian open, the price turned higher after retesting that level, with former resistance acting as support.

As a result, concerns about a potential armed conflict involving the US have shifted the balance of supply and demand decisively higher.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.