Forex Technical Analysis EUR/USD by IFC Markets

[Akriti]

The EUR/USD keeps rising. Being stuck above 1.32, the pair broke through the last frontier represented by 61.8% Fibonacci level for the movement from 1.3414 to 1.2755, and opened the perspective of reaching the June highs at 1.3414. The pair may find the resistance at 1.3250 and 1.3300 heading this way. However, the technical indicators entirely support the price growth: the oscillators are far from the overbought area, with no signs of divergence, the pair is above important moving averages. Taking those facts into account, we do not exclude the possibility of growing on by the pair in the near future. However, our medium-term expectations are still in favor of the US currency, so the approach to 1.34 is considered by us as an opportunity to take a short position on the euro.

 

[Akriti]

Forex Technical Analysis EUR/USD 2013-08-14

The currency pair was limited below the top of the 1.3416/1.2747 range and retreated lower than 1.3313, currently trading at 1.3264. Downside bias was held by positive macro data for the Euro and could even lift prices.

Looking at Ichimoku indicator prices dropped below Tenkan Sen but remain above Kijun Sen. The Kumo is below prices providing a support around 1.3104 and lastly the Chikou-Span is higher than prices but falling suggesting that recent pull back could go deeper. Moreover the Moving average of Oscillator is falling and just dropped into negative territory suggesting negative potential.

Therefore, we observe some early indications that pair is turning to bearish momentum and could move closer to Kumo but we are cautious that Euro zone GDP release later on could increase price volatility unforeseeable.

 

[Akriti]

Forex Technical Analysis USD/JPY 2013-08-15

Current bias is to the downside after the currency pair found resistance at 61.8% of 99.93 to 95.78, at 98.41. Prices have reached major support at 97.60 where bearish wave has been limited in the last 2-hours. Oscillators do not provide any negative contrarian signal with Moving average oscillator just turning negative favoring further lows. Thus , we consider that the pair is capable of breaching barrier at 97.60 and by doing that would trigger sell orders strengthening bearish momentum that would likely drive prices to 96.85.

 

[Akriti]

Forex Technical Analysis GBP/USD 2013-08-16

Upside bias drove the currency pair yesterday to 161.8% extension of 1.5432 to 1.5101, at 1.5644. At the moment prices are consolidating just below that resistance but are likely to breach that level and rise as high as the upper boundary of the 1.5751/1.4832 longer term wide range. The only factor that concerns us is that the Williams’ percent range is at its top although not confirmed by Oscillator, in addition the GBPUSD rose above 200 SMA. Thus in our view it has serious chances to test the top of the range at 1.5751.

 

[Akriti]

Forex Technical Analysis AUD/USD 2013-08-19

Corrective move seems to be well limited by resistance at 0.9230 which is slightly below the 23.60% of the 1.0598 to 0.8863 and the previous key resistance at 0.93. Down trend remains in place in the price pattern and the last upside is considered a corrective move before prices resume their negative development.

Stochastic has just escaped its overbought zone and heading downwards increasing chances for negative resumption, adding to that Momentum (7) is near its peak level. However, Parabolic SAR still provides buy signal reducing chances for downside.

Therefore, we consider prices would be limited by resistance zone between 0.93/0.9230 and we would expect the currency pair more likely to fall back to 0.90 than to rise above 0.93 or at least extend into 0.9230/0.90 sideways zone.

 

[Akriti]

Forex Technical Analysis USD/CAD 2013-08-20

The currency pair respected the surging line and did not fall below support at 1.0276, although upside has been limited in the last trading session by resistance at 38.2% Fibonacci level of 1.0604 to 1.0243, at 1.0380. Thus, prices are mainly extending into 1.0380/1.0276 sideways zone.

For that reason oscillators do not provide much of help regarding forecasts, except that Moving average of oscillator is positive favoring upside even that though is minor. We can base our view on the longer term surging trend that increases chances for further ups. Thus, we consider more likely for the pair to achieve 1.0427 than to drop below 1.0276.

 

[Akriti]

Forex Technical Analysis USD/CHF 2013-08-21

The currency pair approached once more the lower boundary of the long-term 0.9834/0.9129 sideways zone with the downside bias prevailing in yesterday’s trading but limited around support at 0.9172.

Looking at the oscillators, the Stochastic just entered oversold territory coupled by Williams’ percent range being at oversold, both suggesting a technical retreat higher. Thus, due to oversold oscillators and prices near bottom of 0.9834/0.9129 range, we would expect a bounce up to resistance around 10 and 20 SMA at 0.9264.

 

[Akriti]

Forex Technical Analysis EUR/USD 2013-08-22

The currency pair rose above the previous key resistance at 1.3400 inducing traders to follow on the long side but then suddenly dropped sharply to create a “bull trap” pattern. That pattern increased weakness and drove prices down to 1.3313.

Currently, oscillators are around extreme down levels with the Stochastic falling into oversold territory and OsMA fluctuating at previous troughs line. Thus, we consider bearish momentum power has faded with support at 1.3313 near SMA 100 likely to hold any attempt lower and we would expect prices to extend into 1.34/1.3313 area in the intraday.

 

[Akriti]

Forex Technical Analysis USD/JPY 2013-08-23

The currency pair bias has been strongly to the upside with prices walking on the upper Bollinger band and in some cases even closing above that band. Moreover, we see a newly established surging trend with higher high and higher low as well as penetration of the 200 SMA in the 4-hours chart.
However, Stochastic entered overbought zone and rose to previous peak line at 85 coupled by William’s percent range (14) peaking at its highest point at 0.00, OsMA also rose significantly but remains slightly below its earlier trough line. Adding to that, major resistance area around psychological level of 100 limits further the upside.
We would expect therefore the prices to retreat somewhat towards support at 98.39 as a corrective reaction for the bullish wave from 96.91 to 99.13.

 

[Akriti]

Forex Technical Analysis GBP/USD 2013-08-26

The currency pair was limited by the upper boundary of 1.5751/1.4832 long-term daily range, shifting to downside bias and falling to support at 1.5533 where the 200 SMA is located. According to the surging trend line, the medium-term trend is to the upside and that could be respected should the prices do not fall below 1.5432.

Looking at momentum oscillators, Stochastic has still room to move lower and William’s percent range just escaped overbought zone suggesting downside is more likely. In addition, the trend oscillator OsMA just turned into negative territory.

We suspect that prices would continue their bearish bias and go as low as 1.5432 where a strong support is located. At that point chances seem for either direction almost equal.

 

[Akriti]

Forex Technical Analysis USD/JPY 2013-08-27

The currency pair is in downside bias declining towards support at 97.66 where the surging trend line is located and coupled by 100 SMA. Thus we expect that level to hold declining prices in the intraday.

In addition, the Williams’ percent range indicates that the pair is oversold since the oscillator is almost at its bottom. Reinforcing possible upside reaction is that the shorter-term Commodity Chanel Index dropped below the subjectively set -150 line where previous troughs were observed and is increasing.

We would expect therefore the key support at 97.66 to hold declining USDJPY and perhaps then prices would extend into 98.39/97.66 tight consolidation area.

 

[Akriti]

Forex Technical Analysis USD/CHF 2013-08-28

The lower boundary of the longer-term 0.9753/0.9149 daily range is currently limiting downside bias and is likely reverse momentum to upside. Williams’ percent range is near its bottom line at 100 suggesting that bulls will return to the market.

However, all the SMAs are above prices and the medium term trend is negative, therefore we consider chances for either side almost equal. We come to the expectation, that the USDCHF is more likely to continue into sideways zone with upper level at 0.9250 where 20 and 10 SMA are consolidating and lower boundary the 0.9149/0.9129 zone.

 

[Akriti]

Forex Technical Analysis USD/CAD 2013-08-29

The currency pair drew a resistance line at 1.0541 where the upper Bollinger band is located, approaching to almost 2-year high around 1.0600 and then retraced to 1.0470. In the daily chart up trend prevails and that increases chances for higher levels, however psychological resistance at 1.06 places a heavy lid on prices.

There are no contrarian signals from Stochastic oscillator, coupled by MACD in positive ground and the ADX indicating a strong bullish structure for prices. Therefore, we would expect prices to overcome resistance at 1.0541 and surge as high as 1.0607, at that point we would reconsider our trading view.

 

[Akriti]

Forex Technical Analysis EUR/USD 2013-08-30

Downside bias was somewhat blocked by the 161.8% of the 1.33 to 1.34 correction, around 1.3237. We can see that prices have been consolidating around that level in the recent trading with intraday trend being negative and downside momentum strengthened by the breaching SMAs.

However the momentum oscillators like Williams’ percent range and Stochastic are overextended down suggesting that the currency pair would consolidate or bounce up to reset oscillators.

Therefore, we consider the pair is more likely not to continue lower in the intraday with downside resuming in the following week.

 

[Akriti]

Forex Technical Analysis AUD/USD 2013-09-03

The currency pair recent downside bias was limited by key support at 0.8846 a more than a 3-year low, coexisting with the lower Bollinger band at that point. In addition, Bollinger bands are squeezing prices as in the recent trading the pair volatility reduced and has been fluctuating between 0.9230/0.8846 tight range.

Prices reached the lower boundary of the range and shifted to upside bias in the intraday, Williams’ percent range also suggested that earlier. We would expect the currency pair in the intraday to continue higher towards resistance at 0.9230 and perhaps until the end of the week we expect to see a Bollinger band break.

 

[Akriti]

Forex Technical Analysis AUD/USD 2013-09-03

The currency pair recent downside bias was limited by key support at 0.8846 a more than a 3-year low, coexisting with the lower Bollinger band at that point. In addition, Bollinger bands are squeezing prices as in the recent trading the pair volatility reduced and has been fluctuating between 0.9230/0.8846 tight range.

Prices reached the lower boundary of the range and shifted to upside bias in the intraday, Williams’ percent range also suggested that earlier. We would expect the currency pair in the intraday to continue higher towards resistance at 0.9230 and perhaps until the end of the week we expect to see a Bollinger band break.

 

[Akriti]

Forex Technical Analysis AUD/USD 2013-09-18

The currency pair has been neutral in near term, extending in the last trading sessions in 0.9386/0.9284 sideways area. Nevertheless, in the longer term is in an uptrend as indicated by the surging trend line and above the SMAs, who are currently providing natural downside hurdles.

Looking at the oscillators we get mixed signals, firstly Stochastic rose earlier this week in overbought zone providing some contrarian signal but the MACD and RSI (14) are not so revealing. We consider that the AUDUSD would continue its steady formation and we are currently limiting our trading position ahead of FOMC.

 

[Akriti]

Forex Technical Analysis GBP/USD 2013-09-19

The currency pair sharply moved higher on Fed’s decision to keep asset purchases unchanged. Interestingly, even though fundamental developments triggered upside wave, prices found resistance at a technical level at 261.8% Fibonacci extension of 1.5715 to 1.5432, at 1.6164 and is now entering in corrective mood. In addition, the uptrend remains firm as indicated by the surging line.

Overbought oscillators, like RSI (14) that went up to 80 and Stochastic climbing above previous peaks line at 85, are suggesting that prices are more likely to retrace. Therefore we would expect a corrective dive towards 1.5885 in the following trading sessions.

 

[Akriti]

Forex Technical Analysis GBP/USD 2013-09-19

The currency pair sharply moved higher on Fed’s decision to keep asset purchases unchanged. Interestingly, even though fundamental developments triggered upside wave, prices found resistance at a technical level at 261.8% Fibonacci extension of 1.5715 to 1.5432, at 1.6164 and is now entering in corrective mood. In addition, the uptrend remains firm as indicated by the surging line.

Overbought oscillators, like RSI (14) that went up to 80 and Stochastic climbing above previous peaks line at 85, are suggesting that prices are more likely to retrace. Therefore we would expect a corrective dive towards 1.5885 in the following trading sessions.

 

[Akriti]

Forex Technical Analysis USD/CHF 2013-09-20

Downside bias is strong in the pair’s daily pattern and already dropped at support at 0.9084, breaching lower Bollinger Band. In addition, SMAs are above prices coupled by a steep falling trend line favoring further weakness. However, we must keep in mind that this sharp downward move was a result of Fed’s decision not to tighten monetary policy meaning that US dollar's weakness could not be sustainable, unless more negative news for US dollar come out.

Looking at oscillators, we can easily observe that Stochastic and Williams are oversold. Therefore in our view the USDCHF is likely to make a correction towards 0.9149 or even higher and then we would reconsider our projection for the market.