Daily Global Market Overview By zForex

[zForex]

Euro Pauses & Yen Outperforms (02.13.2026)

The Dollar Index remained around 97 on Friday, marking its fourth consecutive session of sideways movement

Asian markets pulled back from record levels after a sharp selloff in US technology shares fueled worries about the broader impact of artificial intelligence. US stock futures stabilized on Friday following a sharp selloff in major averages driven by renewed AI concerns, as investors awaited January’s consumer price index.

The 10-year US Treasury yield remained near 4.11% on Friday after a sharp drop in the prior session, staying close to a two-month low as market volatility drove investors toward Treasuries.

The euro held near 1.1870 as markets turned cautious ahead of key US inflation data, which is expected to shape near-term Federal Reserve policy expectations. Strong US labor figures continue to support the dollar and cap further euro gains, though the ECB’s calm stance on recent currency strength has helped limit downside pressure. The yen remains set for its strongest weekly advance in months on election optimism and intervention vigilance. Sterling lagged peers following weak UK growth data that reinforced expectations of future Bank of England rate cuts.

Gold and silver stabilized as investors reassessed risk after a broad selloff.

Technical Outlook on Charts
Euro Holds Near 1.1870
Yen Holds Weekly Gains
Gold Recovers Toward $4,960
Pound Weakens on Low Growth
Silver Stabilizes Near $77

Economic Calendar

 

[zForex]

Markets Consolidate After Volatility (02.16.2026)

Global markets started the week cautiously as major currencies and metals consolidated after recent volatility.

The US 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.07%, its lowest since early December, as easing CPI lifted pricing for around 61 basis points of Fed cuts in 2025, with the probability of an April move increasing.

The dollar index held just below 97 in thin holiday trade after softer US inflation (2.4% y/y, 0.2% m/m) raised rate-cut expectations, even as strong payrolls and lower unemployment signaled a stabilizing labor market.

The euro hovered near $1.19, supported by the ECB’s calm stance on currency strength and a softer US inflation backdrop. The Japanese yen eased after weaker growth data tempered expectations for an immediate economic rebound, though intervention risks remain in focus. Sterling stayed under pressure following stagnant UK growth figures that reinforced expectations for Bank of England easing.

Gold paused below $5,030 after last week’s inflation-driven rally, with traders awaiting further Fed signals from upcoming data and minutes. Meanwhile, silver slipped toward key support levels as higher-for-longer rate expectations weighed on demand, even as geopolitical risks continued to provide a safety net.

Technical Outlook on Charts
Euro Edges Toward Monthly Highs
Yen Pulls Back on Slow Growth
Gold Pauses After Inflation Rally
Sterling Weakens on Stagnant Growth
Silver Eases to $75 Support

Economic Calendar

 

[zForex]

China’s M2 Liquidity Cycle – Why It Matters​

China’s M2 money supply growth remains a key gauge of the country’s monetary stance and an important signal for global markets. As one of the world’s largest sources of demand, shifts in China’s liquidity cycle often ripple through commodities, equities, and broader risk sentiment well beyond its borders.
The comparison between actual money supply growth and its estimated “normal” level offers insight into policy conditions:

• Blue above green: More liquidity → bullish for commodities and equities
• Blue below green: Tight liquidity → weaker demand, softer markets

Right now:

• M2 is below normal and still falling
• This means no strong stimulus yet

Bottom line:
China’s tight liquidity helps explain weak commodity momentum. A shift to easing could trigger the next rally in gold, metals, and risk assets.

 

[zForex]

Markets Keep Cautious in Thin Trade (02.17.2026)

Global markets opened cautiously in thin trading, with the euro holding near $1.185 after the ECB signaled comfort with its strength, sterling steady around $1.36 ahead of key UK data, and the yen firming toward 153 on BoJ rate-hike speculation.

Precious metals weakened as gold slipped below $4,970 and silver fell over 2% amid subdued liquidity and fading speculative momentum, leaving markets focused on central bank signals and upcoming inflation data.

Equities remained relatively steady, with the US 100 Tech Index near 24,600 and maintaining solid annual gains, while Bitcoin stayed volatile under pressure.

Technical Outlook on Charts
Euro Holds Near Four-Year High
Yen Gains on Hike Hopes
Gold Slips in Thin Trading
Sterling Struggles Amid Weak Growth
Silver Extends Downturn Below $76

Economic Calendar

 

[zForex]

UK labor market growth stalls​

UK jobs growth is slowing. Payroll numbers fell compared to last year, showing companies are hiring more carefully. It’s not a sharp drop, but momentum is clearly weaker.

Wages are still rising, with median pay reaching £2,588. This shows workers still have some bargaining power. But the trend varies by sector.
Healthcare is still adding jobs, while retail is losing them. This reflects weaker consumer spending. For the Bank of England, this mixed picture keeps rate decisions complicated.

 

[zForex]

Market Round-Up​

Oil Markets: Support Now, Risks Ahead
Oil prices remain supported in the near term, but Citi warns that downside risks could emerge later in the year. Potential peace deals involving Russia and Ukraine or Iran could weigh on Brent, with prices possibly sliding toward the $60–$62 range by summer. For now, supply disruptions from Russia may keep Brent within a $65–$70 band, a level that could prompt OPEC+ to tap spare capacity. Citi also cautioned that improving supply conditions could cut diesel and gasoline refining margins by $5–$10.

Alibaba Pushes Deeper Into AI
Alibaba advanced its artificial intelligence strategy with the launch of its new Qwen3.5 model, which can process text, images, and video at the same time. The system’s ability to analyze videos up to two hours long underscores Alibaba’s effort to stay competitive in the global AI race. The timing, just ahead of the Lunar New Year, appears designed to capture peak digital activity and comes as rivals prepare their own AI announcements.

RBA Signals Inflation Caution
Minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s February meeting confirmed the recent rate hike, with policymakers highlighting ongoing inflation pressures and concern that earlier tightening may not have gone far enough. At the same time, the RBA stressed uncertainty around the growth outlook, indicating that future moves will depend on incoming data rather than a preset policy path.

Markets Overall
Markets are juggling multiple forces, from geopolitical risks affecting energy prices to intensifying competition in AI and cautious shifts in monetary policy. Together, these themes continue to shape near-term market sentiment and longer-term positioning.

 

[zForex]

Gold Rebounds as FX Holds Range (02.18.2026)​

Markets traded with a mixed tone as currencies and metals reacted to central bank signals and fresh data.

The euro held firm near $1.185, supported by the ECB’s comfort with currency strength and confidence that inflation is on track, alongside expectations of a less dovish policy mix later this year. The Japanese yen eased despite a sharp jump in exports, as traders balanced strong trade momentum against broader policy normalization expectations. Sterling slid to a two-week low after weak wage growth and rising unemployment strengthened the case for Bank of England rate cuts

Gold rebounded toward $4,900 on dip-buying, with investors weighing mixed Federal Reserve commentary ahead of key US data and FOMC minutes. Meanwhile, silver snapped a short losing streak as buyers returned, supported by expectations of eventual Fed easing and ahead of upcoming US growth and inflation releases.

Brent trades just above $67 per barrel, stabilizing as developments in US–Iran nuclear discussions remain in focus. Iranian officials referenced a broad framework agreement, while US representatives indicated talks will resume in Geneva within two weeks with an updated proposal.

Nasdaq stands at 24,706, down 0.13% on the day. It is lower by 1.13% over the past month but maintains an 11.41% gain year over year. Forecast models suggest 23,966 by quarter-end and 21,806 within a year.

The offshore yuan (USDCNH) strengthens to approximately 6.89 per dollar, reaching its highest level in 34 months as mainland trading pauses for the Lunar New Year.

Technical Outlook on Charts​

ECB Stance Keeps Euro Firm
Yen Eases Despite Export Surge
Gold Recovers Toward $4,900
Sterling Hits Two-Week Low
Silver Gains on Dip-Buying

Economic Calendar

 

[zForex]

CB Signals Keep Markets on Edge (02.19.2026)​

Markets traded cautiously as leadership uncertainty at the European Central Bank and firm US data shaped price action across assets.

The upcoming CPI release is expected to influence expectations around the Federal Reserve’s rate path, especially after meeting minutes showed further hikes remain possible if inflation stays above target.

The offshore yuan strengthened to around 6.89 per dollar, its firmest level in nearly three years. The IMF urged China to prioritize a shift toward consumption-led growth, highlighting the need for structural reform as global conditions evolve.

The euro eased toward $1.18 after reports suggested ECB President Christine Lagarde may step down earlier than the expectations. This added a political layer to the policy outlook. The Japanese yen steadied near recent lows as strong US economic momentum and hawkish Fed signals continued to favor the dollar. Sterling weakened after UK inflation slowed to 3.0%, reinforcing expectations of Bank of England easing.

Gold rebounded and moved back above the key $5,000 psychological level as investors continued to assess the divided FOMC minutes and the outlook for future rate cuts. Holding above this threshold suggests that bullish momentum remains intact for now, with buyers regaining short-term control. Silver extended its rebound toward $78, supported by broader strength across precious metals, even as the firm dollar continues to limit the pace of gains.

Oil recorded its strongest daily gain since October on reports that potential US military action against Iran could come sooner than expected. Fresh US sanctions on 18 Iranian officials added to regional tensions and supported energy prices.

Technical Outlook on Charts​

Euro Dips on Lagarde Exit Rumors
Yen Steady After Sharp Drop
Gold Edges Lower Post-Fed Minutes
Pound Dips as Inflation Hits 3.0%
Silver Gains Toward $78

Economic Calendar​

 

[zForex]

US Trade Deficit Widens

The US trade deficit widened sharply to $70.3 billion, well above forecasts of $55.5 billion and the prior $53.0 billion figure. The larger gap underscores ongoing external imbalances and renews concerns about the resilience of the US trade outlook.

 

[zForex]

Dollar Gains on Hawkish Fed (02.20.2026)​

The dollar index rose toward 98, set for a about 1% weekly gain as strong US data and hawkish Fed signals outweighed a wider trade deficit and softer housing data.

Weekly jobless claims fell to a five-week low, while the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index reached its highest level in five months. December’s trade deficit widened and January pending home sales declined, offering a mixed domestic backdrop.

In Japan, the 10-year government bond yield eased toward 2.1%, a six-week low, as inflation cooled in January. Headline CPI slowed to 1.5% from 2.1%, the lowest since March 2022, while core inflation aligned with the Bank of Japan’s 2% target at its softest pace in two years.

Global markets leaned defensive as hawkish Federal Reserve signals and political uncertainty in Europe lifted the US dollar and weighed on major currencies. The euro slipped to a two-week low amid reports that ECB President Christine Lagarde may step down early, adding leadership risk to an already cautious policy outlook. The Japanese yen weakened past 155 as softer inflation data reduced pressure on the Bank of Japan to tighten further. Sterling softened after UK inflation fell sharply, strengthening the case for Bank of England easing

In commodities, gold stabilized near the $5,000 mark as investors balanced rising Middle East tensions against resilient US economic data and reduced near-term rate-cut expectations. Silver held above $78, supported by geopolitical risk despite lingering volatility and light holiday trading.

Technical Outlook on Charts​

Euro Dips on Hawkish Fed, Exit Rumors
Yen Weakens Past 155
Gold Stabilizes Near $5,000
Pound Weakens as Inflation Tumbles
Silver Stabilizes Above $78

Economic Calendar​

 

[zForex]

US income and spending rise, inflation stays firm​

US personal income rose 0.3% in December, and spending increased 0.4%. This shows consumers were still active at year-end. Demand remained strong despite high rates.

The saving rate fell to 3.6%, meaning people are using more of their savings. Services spending increased, while goods spending declined. This trend has been ongoing since the pandemic.

Inflation also picked up, with core PCE at 3.0% yearly. This keeps pressure on the Federal Reserve to stay cautious. Markets are watching closely for the next policy move.

 

[zForex]

Tariff Ruling Shakes Markets (02.23.2026)​

The dollar index pushed toward 98 on Friday, setting up for an approximate 1% weekly advance.

In Japan, the 10-year government bond yield eased toward 2.1%, touching a six-week low as inflation moderated. Headline CPI slowed to 1.5% from 2.1%, marking the lowest level since March 2022, while core inflation aligned with the Bank of Japan’s 2% target at its softest pace in two years.

Markets reacted sharply to renewed trade uncertainty after a US Supreme Court ruling overturned President Trump’s emergency tariff powers. The move was supported by solid economic indicators, with weekly jobless claims falling to a five-week low and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index rising to its highest level in five months. December’s trade deficit widened and pending home sales declined in January, presenting a more uneven domestic picture.

The decision weakened the dollar and supported major currencies, with the euro rebounding toward $1.18 on strong Eurozone PMI data and the yen recovering toward 154 as trade risks resurfaced. Sterling also recovered above $1.35, aided by a softer dollar and improved UK business activity, as investors reassessed global growth and trade dynamics.

Precious metals outperformed, led by a surge in gold to a three-week high near $5,150 and a sharp rally in silver above $87, both driven by rising safe-haven demand amid escalating tariff friction.

Technical Outlook on Charts​

Euro Climbs on Court Ruling
Yen Strengthens on Tariff Shift
Gold Surges on Tariff Friction
Sterling Reclaims $1.35
Silver Surges Past $87

Economic Calendar​

 

[zForex]

Geopolitics and Trade Drive Volatility (02.24.2026)​

Global markets are navigating a renewed wave of uncertainty as shifting U.S. trade policy and geopolitical tensions reshape risk sentiment. The Trump administration’s move to reintroduce a global tariff framework, starting at 10% with the option to raise it to 15%, has unsettled investors and prompted swift responses from major economies.

The EU paused ratification of its U.S. trade agreement, while India delayed negotiations, underlining the fragile state of global trade relations. Against this backdrop, currency markets showed mixed moves, with the euro and pound finding support from regional data, the yen retreating as the dollar stabilized.

Attention has shifted to renewed US–Iran nuclear talks. While Washington has signaled openness to diplomacy, warnings of serious consequences if discussions fail have kept a risk premium embedded in energy markets. Oil remains supported by Middle East tensions, while precious metals fluctuate alongside shifts in defensive positioning.

Technical Outlook on Charts​

Euro Climbs Above $1.18
Yen Retreats Toward 155
Gold Dips Below $5,190
Pound Reclaims $1.35 on Solid UK Data
Silver Declines on Profit-Taking and Trade Concerns

Economic Calendar​

 

[zForex]

Global markets watch China risks and supply chain shifts​

China’s financial imbalances are rising, with weak consumption and heavy reliance on exports and stimulus. This raises concerns about future growth and global demand. Markets are sensitive because China plays a key role in commodities and trade.

At the same time, trade tensions and supply chain shifts are increasing. Companies like Apple are moving production to reduce geopolitical risk. Overall, investors remain cautious as global trade and growth become more uncertain.

 

[zForex]

New U.S. Tariffs Start Taking Effect (02.25.2026)​

Global markets remained cautious as a new 10% U.S. global tariff came into force, keeping trade uncertainty at the center of investor focus.

The euro stayed below $1.18, while the yen weakened amid softer expectations for Bank of Japan tightening. Gold and silver found support from renewed safe-haven demand linked to tariff risks, while sterling held steady near recent lows as traders assessed the potential impact of higher levies in the months ahead.

Brent crude rose to roughly $71.4 per barrel, recovering from two consecutive losses

Nasdaq climbed to 25,072, gaining 1.09% on the session. The benchmark has risen 2.49% over the past month and 18.64% year-on-year.

Technical Outlook on Charts​

Euro Stays Below $1.18
Yen Weakens Near 156
Gold Rebounds Toward $5,180
Pound Steady Near $1.35
Silver Recovers Above $90

Economic Calendar​

 

[zForex]

Record Foreign Inflow into Japanese Bonds​

Overseas investors are pouring into Japanese government bonds at a record pace. Open interest in 20-year JGB futures hit an all-time high of 44,093 contracts last week, which is a massive jump from near-zero levels in July 2025.

In early February, foreign net purchases reached 3,615 contracts, outstripping domestic participation by 22 times. Additionally, investors abroad snapped up roughly 14,000 10-year JGB futures contracts during the first two weeks of the month. This marks one of the largest volumes on record.

 

[zForex]

Nvidia Earnings: Strong Numbers Expected, But AI Concerns Rising​

Nvidia is reporting at a very sensitive moment for the market. Expectations are still strong, with solid revenue and profit growth driven by AI chip demand.

However, sentiment is no longer purely bullish.

Investors are now questioning whether massive AI spending can continue at the same pace. Big tech companies like Microsoft and Alphabet are spending heavily, and markets want to see if this investment will translate into sustainable profits.

 

[zForex]

Trade Tensions Lift Safe Havens (02.26.2026)​

Markets remained cautious as a new 10% U.S. global tariff weighed on risk sentiment. The euro and pound stayed under pressure near recent lows, while the yen rebounded on renewed speculation around Bank of Japan tightening.

In commodities, gold held near four-week highs and silver surged toward $90 as geopolitical tensions and tariff concerns increased safe-haven demand, even as expectations for near-term Federal Reserve rate cuts remained limited.

Bitcoin trades around $68,284, extending its monthly recovery, while the US 100 Tech Index stands near 25,264 with strong annual gains. Focus now shifts to US Initial Jobless Claims, expected at 217K versus the previous 206K, for fresh labor market signals.

Technical Outlook on Charts​

Euro Faces Headwinds
Yen Rebounds Past 156
Gold Nears Four-Week High
Pound Near One-Month Lows
Silver Rallies Toward $90

 

[zForex]

ECB: Lagarde Signals Inflation Path to 2%​

President Christine Lagarde confirmed that inflation is on track to hit the 2% medium term target. While food inflation remains slightly elevated, it is expected to stabilize slightly above 2% by late 2026. The ECB still expects inflation to align with the 2% target in the medium term.

Key Takeaways:

• Growth Drivers: A resilient labor market, defense spending, and digital infrastructure will support economic activity.
• Wages: Growth remains high but is gradually cooling.
• FX Policy: The ECB will monitor exchange rates closely but will not intervene directly.

 

[zForex]

Today, the focus on the markets is Germany’s unemployment and inflation data. It will show the signals for the Eurozone outlook.

On the US side, PPI inflation and Chicago PMI will provide key insights into price pressures and economic momentum.