Daily Market Analysis By zForex

[zForex]

Strong US Data Fuels Fed Hike Bets (10.30.2026)​

Strong US economic growth and persistent inflation reinforced expectations for another Federal Reserve rate hike in December, keeping precious metals under pressure. Softer yields and easing geopolitical tensions shaped global market sentiment.

The ECB has left the possibility of a December rate increase open as higher energy costs threaten to push inflation further above target. In Japan, the BOJ held rates at 1.25%, but its acknowledgment that underlying inflation has reached 2% strengthened expectations of another hike. One board member voted for an immediate increase, while renewed demand for Japanese bonds added support to the yen.

The US economy expanded by an annualized 3.4% in the third quarter, exceeding forecasts of 3.2%, while September PCE inflation reached 3.6% annually. Despite holding rates unchanged, the Federal Reserve faces persistent price pressures supported by resilient consumer spending. Markets assign roughly a 75% probability to a December hike, keeping the dollar's interest rate advantage in focus.

Brent crude approached four-year highs above $112 as concerns over renewed US strikes on Iran and continued tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz threatened energy supplies. Diplomatic contact between Washington and Tehran offers some prospect of progress, but military tensions continue to support prices. Regional oil exports have nevertheless recovered to near prewar levels, limiting the impact of shipping disruptions.

Economic Calendar​

EUR/USD Extends Recovery Above 1.1200​

EUR/USD extended its recovery from multi-month lows around 1.1100 for a third session, crossing above 1.1200 during Friday's Asian trading. Sterling and euro sentiment were buoyed as the ECB signaled potential December rate increases to tackle energy-driven inflation.

Softening US Treasury yields and Middle East diplomatic hopes weighed on the dollar, though strong 3.4% annualized US Q3 growth preserves a 75% probability of a December Fed hike. Strait of Hormuz energy risks continue to limit pair gains ahead of Eurozone GDP and unemployment data.

The first resistance is positioned at 1.1220 while the support starts from 1.1150.

Gold Drops Below $4,000 Mark​

Gold slipped below $4,000 per ounce on Friday, continuing its decline as persistent inflation and strong economic growth reinforced expectations for a Federal Reserve rate increase later this year. The US PCE price index expanded 0.5% in September, pushing annual inflation to 3.6%, while third-quarter GDP grew at an annualized 3.4% rate.

Although the Fed kept interest rates unchanged ahead of upcoming midterm elections, futures markets still price in roughly a 75% probability of a December rate hike. Gold faces a 4% monthly decline for October.

First resistance is seen at $4060, with initial support near $3950.

Yen Gains Toward 157 per Dollar​

The Japanese yen strengthened toward 157 per dollar on Friday, rising for a third consecutive session after the Bank of Japan held rates at 1.25%. BOJ officials indicated underlying inflation has met its 2% target, clearing a path for a December rate increase.

Notably, board member Hajime Taka dissented, advocating an immediate hike to 1.5%. Safe-haven flows further supported the yen following weak tech earnings, while global asset managers returned to Japanese bonds attracted by improving yields and domestic growth dynamics.

First resistance is seen at 158.10, with initial support near 156.70.

GBP/USD Hits 1.3400; BOE Hikes Loom​

GBP/USD extended its rally into a third day during Friday's Asian session, climbing to approximately 1.3400. Sterling is strengthened by the market's conviction that the Bank of England will deliver a 25-basis-point rate hike next week, with another following in February. In a parallel move, Chancellor Healey introduced tax increases for banks, savers, and landlords to mitigate high energy prices.

Meanwhile, rising optimism about peace in the Middle East has curbed US dollar safe-haven demand, with the probability of a December Fed rate hike falling from 84% to 75%.

From a technical view, resistance stands near 1.3420, with support around 1.3330.

Silver Falls Toward $51 Level​

Silver dropped toward $51 per ounce on Friday, marking its lowest level since November 2025 as sticky inflation and strong US economic growth supported rate hike expectations. The September US PCE price index rose 0.5%, raising annual inflation to 3.6%, while third-quarter GDP expanded at an annualized 3.4% rate.

Although the Fed held rates steady ahead of upcoming midterm elections, CME FedWatch tools signal a 75% chance of a December hike. Silver now faces an approximate 15% drop for October, marking a second consecutive monthly decline.

From a technical view, resistance stands near $53.20, while support is located around $50.50.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD)​

Bitcoin traded near $77,467, slipping 0.43% from the previous session. The cryptocurrency has lost 8.70% over the past four weeks, extending its annual decline to 29.29%.

Trading Economics forecasts a recovery toward $81,901 by the end of the quarter, followed by $90,304 over the next twelve months. These projections suggest potential upside from current prices, although Bitcoin's recent performance reflects continued selling pressure.

Initial resistance sits near 79,000, with support around 76,300.

Brent Oil​

Brent crude climbed above $112 a barrel, approaching four-year highs following reports that a senior US commander had presented Trump with military options against Iran. Trump has repeatedly warned that strikes could resume after next week’s midterm elections, keeping concerns over regional oil supplies firmly in place.

Diplomatic efforts are continuing, with Iranian officials confirming that Vice President JD Vance sent a letter seeking to restart peace talks. Brent has gained more than 10% in October as the US-Iran conflict, Saudi-Houthi clashes and tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz threaten shipping routes. Nevertheless, regional crude exports have recovered to near prewar levels as producers continue moving cargoes through the strait.

Resistance is seen at 114.00, while the nearest support stands at 110.20.

Nasdaq 100​

The US100 fell 1.38% to 28,850, bringing its four-week decline to 5.36%. Despite the recent pullback, the index remains 11.64% higher than a year earlier.

Concerns over AI investment costs and disappointing technology earnings have weighed on sentiment, while expectations of a December Fed rate hike add pressure to growth-oriented stocks. Trading Economics projects the index at 28,344 by the end of the quarter and 26,579 over the next twelve months.

Resistance stands at 29.100, while the nearest support is located at 28,600.

Offshore Chinese Yuan​

USD/CNH traded near 6.6550 as the Chinese yuan kept gaining against the dollar. The currency has appreciated 0.22% over the past week, 0.80% over the past month and approximately 4.6% since the beginning of the year.

The People's Bank of China set its daily USD/CNY reference rate at 6.7138, compared with 6.7147 previously, marking a third consecutive firmer fixing. Lower US Treasury yields and diplomatic developments in the Middle East have helped weaken the dollar, although strong US economic data and expectations of a December Fed hike could slow the yuan's advance.

The first resistance stands at 6.6700, while support begins at 6.6500.

 

[zForex]

Gold Drops 2.72% as Oil Surges and Tech Stocks Tumble​

Gold fell 2.72% to $3,912.02 an ounce, as rising oil prices fueled inflation concerns and a sharp tech selloff raised fears of broader market selling. Silver suffered heavier losses, plunging 5.43% to $49.312 an ounce.

The prospect of renewed US strikes on Iran is driving oil prices higher, adding to inflation pressures and strengthening the case for higher interest rates. With the Fed leaving another hike on the table, markets see a 70% chance of a December increase.

The tech rout is adding to the pressure, as investors may sell other assets to cover losses. Silver faces greater risk of further liquidation, while gold still finds some support from buyers less sensitive to interest rates.

 

[zForex]

Lower Oil Prices Support Metals (11.02.2026)​

Markets opened the week quietly following last week’s volatility. Declining oil prices offered some relief to precious metals as renewed diplomatic efforts surrounding Iran eased immediate inflation concerns.

Microsoft launched its largest voluntary buyout program, covering around 60,000 employees, or a quarter of its workforce. Skydance followed with buyouts after its $111 billion Warner Bros. Discovery deal. Such offers can precede layoffs, making the decision particularly difficult when hiring is slow and the average job search takes 25.4 weeks.

US Treasury yields held near seven-week lows at 4.93%, with the dollar index around 102 and gold recovering above $3,900. Softer oil prices, supported by progress in US-Iran diplomacy, offered some relief from inflation concerns, while AI stocks regained ground. Still, markets price in a 75% probability of a December Fed hike.

AI and semiconductor stocks have lost approximately $5 trillion in market value since October 6, including $835 billion each from Nvidia and Alphabet, while Intel nearly halved. Other major US stocks gained $1.3 trillion, showing that the selloff has been concentrated. Although the S&P 500 has historically risen after every midterm election since 1950, Bank of America warns that continued rate hikes could threaten a recovery.

Tuesday's US midterm elections, ISM surveys, Friday's October employment report and Fed officials' remarks could shift expectations for December's rate decision. The results may influence the dollar, Treasury yields and equities as markets assess the next direction of US monetary policy.

Economic Calendar​

Euro Stays Under Pressure Near 1.1169​

The euro traded around 1.1169 on Monday, remaining locked in a pronounced downtrend against the dollar. Severe turmoil across French debt markets, climbing peripheral borrowing costs, and Spain's snap election continue driving capital outflows from the Eurozone.

Surging natural gas prices threaten German industrial output heading into winter, while diverging monetary policy trajectories between the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve keep the dollar well supported.

The first resistance is positioned at 1.1200 while the support starts from 1.1120.

Gold Recovers Above $3,900 as Oil Eases​

Gold reclaimed the $3,900 per ounce mark on Monday, mounting a recovery from one-year lows as softening crude oil prices moderated inflation worries and rate-hike expectations. Oil faced selling pressure following diplomatic initiatives aimed at preventing new US strikes against Iran.

Last week's retreat was driven by energy-fueled inflation risks and liquidity selling tied to the broader tech sector pullback. Market participants now await the upcoming US employment report, with futures pricing an 75% chance of a December Federal Reserve rate increase.

First resistance is seen at $3940, with initial support near $3875.

Yen Weakens Toward 158 Mark​

The Japanese yen fell toward 158 per dollar on Monday, ending a three-day winning streak despite warnings from Finance Minister Katayama that Tokyo could intervene alongside the US against disorderly market movements.

Investors await upcoming wage data after the Bank of Japan held rates at 1.25% while hinting at a December hike. Diminishing concerns over the tech selloff also reduced safe-haven demand.

First resistance is seen at 158.20, with initial support near 157.30.

Sterling Holds Near 1.3390​

The pound traded near 1.3390 on Monday, hovering close to its highest level since mid-September after gaining roughly 1% in October for its first monthly rise since August. Chancellor Healey's budget offered few surprises, reducing fiscal headroom to £15 billion.

Investors almost fully price in a Bank of England rate increase on Thursday, with additional hikes anticipated in February and July.

From a technical view, resistance stands near 1.3420, with support around 1.3330.

Silver Rebounds Toward $50 Level​

Silver advanced toward $50 per ounce on Monday, recovering from near one-year lows as declining oil prices tempered inflation fears and interest rate expectations. Diplomatic talks regarding Iran weighed on crude markets, though geopolitical uncertainty remains.

Following previous pressure from energy-fueled inflation concerns and tech sector liquidations, market focus shifts to Friday's employment report alongside 75% December rate hike odds.

From a technical view, resistance stands near $50.80, while support is located around $48.90.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD)​

Bitcoin rose approximately 1% to $78,500, recovering from five-week lows as buyers returned following last week's heavy selloff. Around $1.3 billion in leveraged long positions were liquidated during the decline, accelerating losses and weakening short-term sentiment.

Tuesday's US midterm elections and upcoming Federal Reserve signals could influence the next move. Ongoing inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs provide some support, although the recent liquidation wave has left the recovery vulnerable to further selling.

Initial resistance sits near 79,900, with support around 76,300.

Brent Oil​

Brent crude fell below $111 a barrel, retreating from four-year highs as diplomatic negotiations between Qatar and Iran continued for a third consecutive day. The talks aim to end the conflict before the US midterm elections, easing immediate concerns over further supply disruptions.

Trump pledged to avoid additional strikes before Tuesday's vote, citing progress in negotiations, although he has not ruled out military action afterward. OPEC+ also maintained its production targets through December, leaving supply policy unchanged as diplomatic developments influence oil prices.

Resistance is seen at 112.00, while the nearest support stands at 108.20.

Nasdaq 100​

Nasdaq-100 futures gained approximately 0.46% to 28,664, recovering modestly after Friday's 3.46% plunge briefly pushed the index into correction territory.

October's decline erased roughly $2.85 trillion in market value as concerns over the cost and profitability of AI investment triggered heavy selling. Intel's nearly 30% drop added pressure across semiconductor stocks. Although futures suggest a tentative recovery, Tuesday's US midterm elections and upcoming Fed commentary could keep technology shares volatile.

Resistance stands at 29.100, while the nearest support is located at 28,200.

Offshore Chinese Yuan​

USD/CNH declined 0.11% to approximately 6.6490, approaching its lowest level in 52 weeks as the offshore yuan maintained its strength against the dollar.

The People's Bank of China's tightly managed daily exchange-rate fixings have helped contain speculative movements and limited the impact of broader dollar strength. Trading activity has also remained subdued before Tuesday's US midterm elections, keeping short-term currency fluctuations relatively modest.

The first resistance stands at 6.6600, while support begins at 6.6400.

 

[zForex]

Midterm Democrat Gains Support Metals (11.04.2026)​

Democrats are nearing control of the House, with the Senate also within reach following Tuesday's US midterm elections. A divided Congress could stall Trump's legislative agenda, restrict government spending and bring stricter AI regulations. Yet history offers some reassurance: the S&P 500 has posted gains in the 12 months following every midterm election since 1946.

US stock futures fell Wednesday as election results unsettled Wall Street. Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 2%, while the S&P 500 and Dow declined 1.2% and 0.8%, respectively. Semiconductor stocks provided a rare bright spot, with AMD climbing more than 3% after strong quarterly earnings, alongside gains in Super Micro and Arista.

Government bonds attracted fresh demand as weakness in AI and technology stocks pushed investors toward safer assets. The US 10-year Treasury yield slipped to around 4.9%, near an eight-week low, while Japan's equivalent held near 2.77%, close to its lowest level in three months. Political developments in Washington added to the shift toward bonds.

The dollar index fell below 101.5, its weakest level in five weeks, as a potential Democratic sweep weighed on the currency. Beyond the election, Washington's next move toward Iran could influence oil prices, while Japanese wage figures may strengthen the case for a December BOJ hike. Friday's US jobs report will provide another test for expectations surrounding Federal Reserve policy.

Economic Calendar​

EUR/USD Rebounds Toward 1.1250​

EUR/USD advanced toward 1.1250 on Wednesday, recovering strongly from multi-month lows as US midterm election uncertainty weighed on the dollar. Lower Brent crude prices eased inflation fears and pulled Treasury yields down.

However, medium-term euro upside remains capped by the Federal Reserve's higher-for-longer stance, sluggish Eurozone economic expansion, and Fitch's negative credit outlook on France.

The first resistance is positioned at 1.1280 while the support starts from 1.1200.

Gold Reclaims $4,000 Level​

Gold rose slightly above $4000 an ounce on Wednesday as investors digested early US midterm election results and ongoing Middle East diplomatic developments. Early Democrat gains introduced fiscal policy uncertainty, while declining crude oil prices eased broader inflation concerns to support the metal. Nevertheless, markets continue to price in roughly a 78% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in December.

First resistance is seen at $4,080, with initial support near $4,010.

Yen Strengthens Toward 157.5 Level​

The Japanese yen firmed toward 157.5 per dollar on Wednesday, ending a two-day losing streak as the dollar weakened following early poll results pointing toward a potential Democrat sweep. Safe-haven demand expanded alongside renewed selling pressure in tech and AI stocks.

Investors now turn their focus to Japanese wage data following the Bank of Japan's rate hold at 1.25% and December hike indications.

First resistance is seen at 158.00, with initial support near 157.20.

Pound Tests 1.3480 Ahead of BoE Decision​

GBP/USD rose toward 1.3480 on Wednesday, reaching a key resistance level as the US dollar weakened amid midterm election uncertainty. Early poll results showing Democrat gains prompted traders to trim long dollar positions.

Sterling gained additional support ahead of Thursday's Bank of England decision, where a rate hike to 4% is widely anticipated, preceding Friday's US payrolls report.

From a technical view, resistance stands near 1.3500, with support around 1.3410.

Silver Goes Past the $51 Level​

Silver advanced past $51 per ounce on Wednesday, rebounding from recent losses as investors tracked Middle East diplomacy and US midterm election results. Early Democrat gains heightened fiscal policy uncertainty.

Softer crude oil prices near four-week lows tempered inflation fears to support the metal, though markets maintain a 78% chance of a December Fed rate hike.

From a technical view, resistance stands near $52.00, while support is located around $50.50.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD)​

Bitcoin slipped below $76,750, reaching its lowest level in nearly two months as early Democratic gains raised concerns about the future of crypto-friendly legislation. A shift in congressional control could delay the Clarity Act and open the door to stricter SEC and CFTC oversight.

More than $1.3 billion in ETF outflows following a major Binance security breach added to selling pressure, while ongoing US-Iran tensions further weakened demand for cryptocurrencies.

Initial resistance sits near 78,900, with support around 74,300.

Brent Oil​

Brent crude fell below $103 a barrel, bringing its weekly decline close to 10% as diplomatic efforts between Washington and Tehran reduced immediate supply concerns.

Qatar confirmed that both sides were reviewing new mediation proposals, although Iran expressed dissatisfaction with Washington's response. Limited US defensive strikes suggested no immediate return to large-scale operations, while recovering Middle Eastern crude exports added further downward pressure on prices.

Resistance is seen at 103.80, while the nearest support stands at 101.50.

Nasdaq 100​

Nasdaq futures dropped more than 2% as early Democratic gains raised the prospect of tighter AI regulation. Concerns over technology spending and high Treasury yields added to the pressure.

The index has already entered correction territory, falling more than 10% from its October record of 31,361. Tuesday's 0.68% recovery to 28,180 offered only temporary relief as doubts over AI profitability strained technology shares.

Resistance stands at 27.900, while the nearest support is located at 27,300.

Offshore Chinese Yuan​

USD/CNH rose 0.36% to around 6.67, recovering from multi-year lows near 6.64 after the People's Bank of China increased its foreign exchange reserve requirement ratio to 6%.

The measure tightened domestic dollar liquidity and helped slow the yuan's rapid appreciation, triggering its steepest daily decline in six months. Political developments surrounding the US midterms also encouraged a more defensive approach to emerging-market currencies.

The first resistance stands at 6.6870, while support begins at 6.6600.

 

[zForex]

Post-Election Dollar Weakness Supports Markets (11.05.2026)​

The dollar index slipped to around 101.3 as the election outcome lifted equities and reduced safe-haven demand. Expectations of political gridlock also lowered the perceived likelihood of further US strikes on Iran, adding pressure to oil prices.

US 10-year Treasury yields fell to 4.85%, their lowest in nearly two months, as cheaper oil eased inflation concerns and expectations of aggressive Fed tightening. Still, markets price a 79% chance of a December rate hike, putting Friday's US jobs report in focus.

US stock futures held steady on Thursday following Wednesday's rally, when the Dow surged 3.03%, the S&P 500 gained 1.58% and the Nasdaq rose 1.44%. Democrats’ win sparked hopes of an end to the Middle East conflict, sending oil prices sharply lower. After-hours trading saw AppLovin jump over 20%, while Qualcomm lost more than 7%.

Japan's 10-year yield hovered near 2.77%, close to three-month lows, as weakness in tech and AI stocks and US political developments supported demand for bonds. Concerns over stricter AI regulation also weighed on sentiment, while upcoming Japanese wage data could offer clues on a possible December BOJ rate hike.

Economic Calendar​

Euro Extends Recovery to 1.1265​

EUR/USD climbed to 1.1265 on Thursday, expanding its recovery from multi-month lows near 1.1100 as traders trimmed long dollar positions post-midterms. Upward revisions to Eurozone manufacturing PMIs and a reduced Atlanta Fed GDPNow forecast provided further support. However, Fitch's negative credit outlook on French sovereign debt continues to limit the euro's broader long-term potential.

The first resistance is positioned at 1.1290 while the support starts from 1.1200.

Gold Gains on US-Iran Peace Hopes​

Gold climbed above $4,120 on Thursday as midterm gains of the Democrats fueled hopes of resolving the US-Iran conflict, sending oil prices lower. A weaker dollar and declining Treasury yields provided further support. Investors now await Friday’s US employment report, while markets price a 79% probability of a December Fed rate hike.

First resistance is seen at $4160, with initial support near $4090.

Yen Gains on Hawkish BOJ Minutes​

The Japanese yen firmed past 158 per dollar on Thursday, advancing for a second straight session after the Bank of Japan's September minutes revealed one board member saw scope to accelerate interest rate hikes. Although the BOJ held rates at 1.25% in October, it signaled inflation has met its 2% target. A softer US dollar following the Democrats’ midterm sweep provided further support.

First resistance is seen at 158.25, with initial support near 157.40.

GBP/USD Holds Near 1.3470 High​

GBP/USD held near 1.3470 on Thursday, retaining a five-week high as the US dollar softened following the midterms. Markets broadly anticipate the Bank of England will raise interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.00% today, marking its first increase in over three years. However, any dovish signaling from Governor Bailey regarding future monetary policy could cap sterling's advance ahead of Friday's US payrolls report.

From a technical view, resistance stands near 1.3540, with support around 1.3430.

Silver Rises Toward $53 as Oil Tumbles​

Silver climbed toward $53 per ounce on Thursday, extending its advance as the midterm results fueled hopes for a resolution to the Iran conflict, driving oil prices sharply down. Donald Trump acknowledged the war hurt Republican performance and indicated no immediate escalation plans. Softening Treasury yields and a weaker US dollar provided additional momentum ahead of Friday's pivotal employment report.

From a technical view, resistance stands near $53.80, while support is located around $51.20.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD)​

Bitcoin rebounded more than 6% from its election-period low below $76,000, reaching $80,440. The confirmed midterm results sparked a relief rally and roughly $950 million in short liquidations.

MicroStrategy's $65 million Bitcoin purchase added support, despite spot ETFs recording outflows for a third consecutive day.

Initial resistance sits near 81,900, with support around 78,300.

Brent Oil​

Brent slipped below $94 a barrel, its lowest in two months, after plunging nearly 9% on Wednesday and around 17% for the week.

With Democrats holding the majority in Congress, there is increased political pressure to end the Iran war, with Chuck Schumer calling for peace. Recovering Persian Gulf exports, already exceeding near-term demand, added to the selling pressure.

Resistance is seen at 95.80, while the nearest support stands at 91.50.

Nasdaq 100​

The Nasdaq 100 dropped 1.4% to around 28,115 as profit-taking erased part of the post-election rally.

Prospects of stricter technology regulation under a Democratic Congress pressured AI and semiconductor stocks, while Nvidia's late-November earnings and high Treasury yields added to concerns.

Resistance stands at 28,600, while the nearest support is located at 27,900.

Offshore Chinese Yuan​

USD/CNH traded near 6.67, holding its recovery from multi-year lows around 6.64. The PBOC's increase in the foreign exchange reserve requirement ratio to 6% restricted domestic dollar liquidity and slowed the yuan's appreciation.

Cautious institutional flows also supported the pair despite broader dollar weakness following the US midterms.

The first resistance stands at 6.6870, while support begins at 6.6600.

 

[zForex]

Tech Sell-Off Lifts Yen Ahead of US Payrolls (11.06.2026)​

Markets turned cautious ahead of the US employment report as a renewed technology stock selloff and post-midterm political uncertainty weighed on sentiment.

US stock futures recovered as investors stepped back into equities following Thursday’s steep losses. The Nasdaq Composite plunged 5.5% into correction territory, while the S&P 500 shed 4.4% and the Dow dropped 3.4%. The selloff centered on fears that a Democratic-controlled Congress could impose stricter AI regulations and slow data center expansion. Chipmakers took the hardest hit, with Nvidia falling 9.3%, AMD 17.3% and Micron 17.5%.

The sharp decline in equities sent investors toward safer assets, pushing the US 10-year Treasury yield near a two-month low of 4.85%. Oil prices also retreated as expectations of Democratic pressure to end the Iran war eased concerns over inflation.

The dollar index strengthened to around 101.7 before Friday’s October jobs report, following encouraging labor data. Private employers added 86,000 jobs in October, while jobless claims fell to their lowest level in 57 years. Yet expectations for a December Fed rate hike weakened sharply, with the implied probability dropping to 68% from nearly 83% just a day earlier.

In Japan, demand for government bonds drove the 10-year yield down to 2.67%, its lowest in four months. Meanwhile, wage growth accelerated to its fastest pace in nearly 30 years, reinforcing expectations that the Bank of Japan could raise interest rates again in December.

Economic Calendar​

Euro Eases to 1.1212 Ahead of US Payrolls​

EUR/USD slipped toward 1.1212 on Friday, reversing recent gains as its multiday recovery stalled below key resistance levels. While firmer Eurozone inflation figures had previously underpinned the euro and post-midterm dollar weakness provided momentum, market action turned volatile.

Sellers reemerged to reclaim control as traders adjusted positions ahead of Friday's critical US nonfarm payrolls release.

The first resistance is positioned at 1.1240 while the support starts from 1.1160.

Gold Dips Below $4,060 but Heads for Weekly Gain​

Gold fell below $4,060 per ounce on Friday, though it remained on track for a 5% weekly advance following the Democrats’ midterm sweep. Markets anticipate heightened pressure to resolve the Iran conflict, potentially lowering oil prices and inflation risks, while political gridlock could restrain government spending.

Equity market liquidations induced cash-raising sales, but declining bond yields cushioned the metal's retracement.

First resistance is seen at $4090, with initial support near $4010.

Yen Strengthens on Tech Rout​

USD/JPY eased to around 157.85 on Friday, retreating from a weekly high of 158.50 as a tech selloff on Wall Street and political uncertainty raised safe-haven demand for the yen. US 10-year yields fell to 4.83%, narrowing the gap with Japanese bonds.

Expectations for a December BOJ rate hike and lower Fed hike bets ahead of the payrolls report also supported the Japanese currency.

First resistance is seen at 158.25, with initial support near 157.40.

GBP/USD Consolidates Near 1.3450​

GBP/USD traded near 1.3450 on Friday, consolidating after its upward momentum stalled above 1.3500. The Bank of England raised interest rates to 4.00% and warned inflation could approach 5%, driving expectations for additional rate increases through 2027.

Meanwhile, post-midterm dollar weakness lifted sterling toward seven-week highs, though today's US payrolls report promises potential volatility.

From a technical view, resistance stands near 1.3480, with support around 1.3400.

Silver Heads for 4% Weekly Gain Near $52​

Silver traded near $51.50 per ounce on Friday, positioning for a 4% weekly advance following the midterms. Expectations of a resolution to the Iran war tempered crude oil and inflation fears, while potential legislative gridlock could restrain government spending.

Softer bond yields helped absorb liquidity-driven selling amid an accelerating tech-led equity selloff.

From a technical view, resistance stands near $52.80, while support is located around $50.50.

Offshore Chinese Yuan​

USD/CNH held below 6.670 as Beijing's efforts to slow yuan appreciation met dollar demand following Wall Street's technology selloff.

The PBOC's reserve requirement increase aims to moderate, rather than reverse, the yuan's gains, while expected export-related dollar conversions in December could provide further support for the Chinese currency.

The first resistance stands at 6.6770, while support begins at 6.6500.

Nasdaq 100​

The Nasdaq 100 hovered near 27,000 after plunging 6.36% on Thursday, erasing over $1 trillion in market value and entering correction territory.

Fears of stricter AI regulation hit chipmakers particularly hard, with Nvidia sinking 9.3%. The selloff drove capital toward bonds, gold and the yen.

Resistance stands at 27,600, while the nearest support is located at 26,500.

Brent Crude Oil​

Brent traded near $99 a barrel, heading for a weekly loss of roughly 13% as Democrats’ midterm victory raised hopes of a faster resolution to the Iran war.

Tehran is reviewing mediation proposals but insists on sanctions relief before fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Gulf crude exports have nearly returned to pre-war levels, although shipping risks remain.

Resistance is seen at 101.50, while the nearest support stands at 97.70.

Bitcoin​

Bitcoin fell around 5% in 24 hours to $75,800, wiping out its post-election rally above $80,000. Concerns over tighter AI regulation drove the Nasdaq into correction territory and triggered broader selling in risk assets.

Spot Bitcoin ETF outflows of $1.15 billion and up to $428 million in long liquidations intensified the decline.

Initial resistance sits near 78,900, with support around 73,500.

 

[zForex]

Lower Oil Prices Lift Metals (11.09.2026)​

Declining oil prices supported precious metals as progress in US-Iran diplomatic talks eased inflation concerns.

President Trump suggested further strikes on Iran were unlikely if nuclear negotiations and efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz progressed. Strong US employment data, however, kept expectations of a December Fed hike intact, limiting gold's advance.

Stronger US employment data reinforced expectations for a December Federal Reserve rate hike, limiting further gains. Meanwhile, the euro recovered toward 1.1150 as elevated Eurozone inflation strengthened expectations for ECB tightening. Sterling rebounded to 1.3370, supported by the Bank of England's recent rate increase and hawkish outlook. The yen also strengthened toward 158.1 per dollar following signals of further monetary tightening from the Bank of Japan. Investors now await upcoming US inflation data for additional policy guidance.

Economic Calendar​

EUR/USD Rebounds to 1.1150​

EUR/USD climbed to around 1.1150 during Monday's Asian session, snapping a two-day decline. The euro gained traction as ECB policymakers signaled a potential December rate hike, reinforced by Eurozone inflation reaching 4%.

The dollar softened despite expectations of a 25-basis-point Fed rate increase. However, resilient US employment data and upcoming inflation releases may constrain further upside momentum.

The first resistance is positioned at 1.1190 while the support starts from 1.1130.

Gold Holds Above $4,100​

Gold rose above $4,100 per ounce on Monday, extending prior gains as lower oil prices mitigated inflation pressures. Crude remained under pressure after President Trump stated new strikes on Iran are unlikely if nuclear and Strait of Hormuz negotiations advance.

However, upside momentum was constrained by Friday's strong US jobs data, which showed nonfarm payrolls accelerating and unemployment falling to 4.1%, reinforcing expectations for a December Federal Reserve rate increase.

First resistance is seen at $4160, with initial support near $4080.

Yen Recovers Toward 158.1 Level​

The Japanese yen firmed toward 158.1 per dollar on Monday, recovering a portion of last week's losses as hawkish comments from Bank of Japan officials increased rate hike expectations. BOJ Chief Economist Seisaku Kameda indicated a December rate increase is likely, with tightening potentially continuing toward a 2% terminal rate. Governor Kazuo Ueda reinforced this posture, noting underlying inflation remains near target.

Meanwhile, official Ministry of Finance data confirmed Tokyo spent a record ¥15.4 trillion across three days in late July to defend the currency.

First resistance is seen at 158.80, with initial support near 158.00.

GBP/USD Rebounds to 1.3370​

GBP/USD halted its two-day decline during Monday's Asian session, rising to around 1.3370. Sterling continues to draw support from the Bank of England's decision last week to raise interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.00%, marking its first hike in over three years.

A member voting for a 50-basis-point increase, alongside central bank projections of inflation reaching 5% by mid-2027, reinforces a hawkish monetary outlook.

From a technical view, resistance stands near 1.3400, with support around 1.3340.

Silver Extends Gains Past $52​

Silver rose above $52 per ounce on Monday, extending gains from the previous week as declining crude oil prices helped mitigate broader inflation pressures. Energy markets remained subdued following President Trump's comments that further military strikes on Iran are unlikely if nuclear negotiations and talks over the Strait of Hormuz progress.

However, additional upside was restrained by strong US employment data, which showed expanding payrolls and unemployment falling to 4.1%, driving market expectations for a December Federal Reserve rate hike.

From a technical view, resistance stands near $53.80, while support is located around $52.20.

Bitcoin​

Bitcoin traded near $74,800, gaining 0.47% for the session.

Despite rising 9.67% over the past four weeks, the cryptocurrency remains down 29.32% year over year. Trading Economics forecasts a price of $77,094 by the end of the quarter and $85,402 within 12 months.

Initial resistance sits near 76,500, with support around 73,500.

Brent Crude Oil​

Brent hovered near $98 a barrel, struggling to recover from last week's losses as hopes of progress in US-Iran negotiations weighed on prices.

Trump said further strikes were highly unlikely if talks on Iran's nuclear program and reopening the Strait of Hormuz advanced. He also acknowledged that the conflict's impact on oil and gasoline prices contributed to the Republicans' historic midterm defeat.

Resistance is seen at 100.00, while the nearest support stands at 96.50.

Nasdaq 100​

The US100 rose 1.35% to 27,106, extending its four-week gain to 11.67%. The index is also up 5.76% over the past year. Despite the recent advance,

Trading Economics projects a decline to 26,412 by quarter-end and 24,753 over the next 12 months.

Resistance stands at 27,350, while the nearest support is located at 26,800.

Offshore Chinese Yuan​

USD/CNH held near 6.6727, trading within a narrow 6.6705–6.6745 range after Friday's sharp dollar rally. The greenback posted its biggest daily gain in five months as US payrolls rose by 165,000, more than double forecasts, and unemployment fell to 4.1%, lifting December Fed hike expectations to 80%.

In China, consumer inflation undershot forecasts at 0.7%, while producer prices climbed 5.7%, their fastest increase in four years.

The first resistance stands at 6.6870, while support begins at 6.6600.

 

[zForex]

Fed Rate Hike Expectations Pressure Metals (11.10.2026)​

US inflation data takes center stage on November 10 as investors assess whether persistent price pressures will force the Federal Reserve to raise rates again in December.

Following strong October employment figures, markets are pricing roughly an 84% chance of another hike. Headline CPI is expected to remain elevated, while monthly inflation is forecast at 0.3%, keeping the Fed’s inflation fight firmly in focus.

USD/JPY remains near 158 despite increasingly hawkish signals from the Bank of Japan. October meeting records showed some policymakers favor faster tightening, strengthening expectations for a December increase.

Meanwhile, China’s trade surplus exceeded $1 trillion during the first ten months of 2026, supported by strong AI-related exports. That resilience is helping the yuan hold near 6.66 despite persistent weakness in domestic demand.

Economic Calendar​

EUR/USD Retracts to 1.1228​

EUR/USD dropped to about 1.1228 on Tuesday, giving back ground after its multi-day rebound stalled below recent highs. Rising Eurozone inflation had lifted the euro, while the dollar had softened following the Democratic midterm sweep.

Trading turned choppy as investors positioned ahead of today’s key US nonfarm payrolls report, with sellers trying to take back control.

The first resistance is positioned at 1.1245 while the support starts from 1.1190.

Gold Slips to $4,120 Level​

Gold slipped toward $4,120 per ounce on Tuesday, scaling back part of the previous session's advance as market participants awaited a crucial US inflation release to gauge Federal Reserve policy path expectations. Expectations for a December Fed rate increase have risen to 84%, up from 74% last week, driven by persistent inflationary pressures.

Elevated interest rates heighten the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing bullion. Previously, gold gained nearly 2% as falling oil prices spurred US-Iran peace hopes.

First resistance is seen at $4160, with initial support near $4070.

Yen Weakens Back Toward 158​

The Japanese yen weakened to around 158 per dollar on Tuesday, surrendering a portion of the previous session's advance as hawkish signals from the Bank of Japan failed to provide sustained market momentum. According to the BOJ's latest Summary of Opinions, board members generally agreed that interest rate increases should continue given underlying inflation matches their 2% target.

Additionally, some members advocated accelerating monetary tightening toward neutral levels, citing increased corporate resilience to higher borrowing costs.

First resistance is seen at 158.80, with initial support near 158.00.

GBP/USD Nears 1.3448 Ahead of US CPI​

GBP/USD traded slightly higher around 1.3448 during Tuesday's Asian session. Sterling maintains support from the Bank of England's rate hike last week, which marked its first interest rate increase in over three years. The pair remains situated within the middle of its year-and-a-half trading range. Attention now turns to the upcoming US October inflation report, where headline annual CPI is projected to rise to 3.9%.

With a December Fed rate hike largely priced in, an upside inflation surprise could support the dollar, whereas a cooler reading may unlock further gains for the pound.

From a technical view, resistance stands near 1.3480, with support around 1.3400.

Silver Softens Toward $53 Level​

Silver slipped toward $53 per ounce on Tuesday, relinquishing a portion of prior gains as market participants awaited key US inflation data to gauge Federal Reserve policy expectations. Expectations for a December Fed rate increase have risen to 84%, up from 74% last week, driven by persistent inflationary pressures.

Higher interest rates elevate the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets, tempering appetite for precious metals.

From a technical view, resistance stands near $53.80, while support is located around $52.20.

Bitcoin​

Bitcoin traded at $74,668 on Tuesday, November 10, down 0.75% from the previous session. It has fallen 10.76% over the past four weeks and 27.52% over the past year. Trading Economics projects Bitcoin at $77,094 by the end of this quarter and $85,402 in one year.

Initial resistance sits near 76,500, with support around 73,500.

Brent Oil​

Brent crude fallen below $92 per barrel on Tuesday, extending losses to reach its lowest point since late August as Middle East diplomatic initiatives gained traction. Optimism grew following President Trump's remarks regarding momentum toward ending the conflict after discussions with Qatar's prime minister.

Additionally, Congressional Democrats are evaluating leveraging the December 11 government funding deadline to encourage a diplomatic resolution. Nevertheless, geopolitical risks persist, highlighted by reported US strikes on Iran's Qeshm Island and Secretary of State Marco Rubio tempering expectations for immediate progress.

Resistance is seen at 93.30, while the nearest support stands at 90.00.

Nasdaq 100​

The US100 traded at 27,802 on Tuesday, November 10, up 3.40% from the previous session. It has gained 9.34% over the past four weeks and 8.88% over the past year. Trading Economics projects the index at 26,412 by the end of this quarter and 24,753 in one year.

Resistance stands at 28,050, while the nearest support is located at 27,500.

Offshore Chinese Yuan​

The offshore yuan held steady near 6.66 per dollar on Tuesday, supported by strong trade data as China’s year-to-date trade surplus topped $1 trillion for only the second time on record. Exports jumped 35.2% year-on-year to $412.33 billion in October 2026, driven by continued global demand for AI-related tech products. Imports also surged 41.6% to $307.05 billion, the fastest annual growth since May 2021.

In the first ten months of the year, exports rose 22.7% and imports 29.0%, lifting the trade surplus to $1.043 trillion and putting the full-year total on course to surpass last year’s record of $1.2 trillion.

The first resistance stands at 6.6800, while support begins at 6.6580.

 

[zForex]

Hot US Inflation Lifts Dollar (11.11.2026)​

October's US inflation figures strengthened expectations of further Fed tightening, with headline CPI rising 0.4% and core CPI 0.3%, both above forecasts. Governor Christopher Waller raised the possibility of a 50-basis-point hike, while other Fed officials signaled support for tighter policy. December hike expectations jumped to 91% from 84%.

Stronger US inflation and the prospect of more aggressive Fed tightening weighed on bullion, with higher interest rate expectations strengthening the dollar and reducing gold's appeal.

Brent steadied above $92 a barrel as Trump suggested further strikes on Iran might be unnecessary. Congressional Democrats are also considering using the upcoming government funding deadline to push for an end to the conflict, raising hopes of a diplomatic resolution.

Hopes for US-Iran diplomatic progress offered some relief to currencies by reducing safe-haven dollar demand.

Economic Calendar​

EUR/USD Stabilizes Above 1.1150​

EUR/USD fell sharply following hotter-than-expected US inflation data, attempting to stabilize above 1.1150 during Wednesday's Asian session. October CPI rose 0.4% monthly with core CPI at 0.3%, supporting the case for a December Fed rate increase.

Fed Governor Waller noted a potential 50-basis-point jumbo hike could be considered given the 0.3% core print, while hawkish comments from Logan and Paulson further lifted the dollar. However, Secretary of State Rubio's comments ruling out large-scale military action in Iran may temper safe-haven dollar demand.

The first resistance is positioned at 1.1210 while the support starts from 1.1130.

Gold Holds Below $4,050 Level​

Gold held below $4,050 per ounce on Wednesday, consolidating after a 3% decline as persistent inflation and hawkish Federal Reserve rhetoric fueled rate hike expectations. October headline inflation moderated to 0.4% monthly while core inflation held at 0.3%, both topping consensus estimates.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller endorsed continued tightening, opening the door for a half-point increase if price pressures accelerate, alongside aggressive stance signals from Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan. The market odds for a December rate hike surged to 91%.

First resistance is seen at $4080, with initial support near $4020.

Yen Nears 159 Level​

The Japanese yen weakened toward 158.9 per dollar on Wednesday, trading near a two-month low as the dollar rallied on hawkish Federal Reserve commentary and elevated US inflation readings. Markets now price in a 91% probability of a December Fed rate increase, with further tightening anticipated into early next year.

The yen remained constrained despite hawkish signals from Bank of Japan officials, including Chief Economist Seisaku Kameda, who indicated higher interest rates remain likely next month.

First resistance is seen at 159.30, with initial support near 158.30.

GBP/USD Recovers to 1.3350​

GBP/USD hit a week-and-a-half low following strong US inflation figures before recovering slightly toward 1.3350 during Wednesday's Asian session. Growing expectations of a potential 50-basis-point Federal Reserve rate hike in December continue to underpin dollar strength, limiting upside momentum.

However, emerging hopes for US-Iran diplomatic progress have softened safe-haven demand for the dollar. Meanwhile, the Bank of England's persistent hawkish posture provides underlying support for the pound as the pair holds above key support at 1.3314 to 1.3322.

From a technical view, resistance stands near 1.3400, with support around 1.3310.

Silver Holds Near $52 Level​

Silver traded near $52 per ounce on Wednesday following a 3% drop in the prior session, pressured by hawkish Federal Reserve commentary and elevated US inflation figures. October headline inflation moderated to 0.4% monthly yet exceeded the 0.3% forecast, while core inflation held steady at 0.3% for a third consecutive month.

Persistent price pressures continue to solidify market expectations for a December rate hike, heightening headwind risks for non-yielding bullion.

From a technical view, resistance stands near $53.60, while support is located around $51.50.

Bitcoin​

Bitcoin traded near $73,470, slipping 0.32% for the session.

The cryptocurrency has lost 10.16% over the past four weeks and 27.72% year over year. Despite the recent decline, Trading Economics forecasts a recovery to $77,094 by quarter-end and $85,402 over the next 12 months.

Initial resistance sits near 75,500, with support around 72,500.

Brent Oil​

Brent steadied above $92 a barrel but remained near ten-week lows as prospects of easing US-Iran tensions weighed on prices. Trump suggested further military strikes might no longer be necessary, raising hopes of a diplomatic settlement.

Congressional Democrats are also considering using the upcoming government funding deadline to pressure the administration into ending the conflict

Resistance is seen at 94.00, while the nearest support stands at 90.50.

Nasdaq 100​

The US100 slipped 0.60% to 28,108, extending its four-week decline to 8.34%.

Despite the recent weakness, the index remains 10.15% higher year over year. Trading Economics projects a further decline to 26,412 by quarter-end and 24,753 over the next 12 months.

Resistance stands at 28,400, while the nearest support is located at 27,700.

Offshore Chinese Yuan​

USD/CNH held near 6.67, with the yuan showing resilience despite stronger US inflation and speculation about a possible 50-basis-point Fed hike in December.

The PBOC set its daily USD/CNY reference rate at 6.7191, up from 6.7167, signaling a modestly weaker yuan fixing.

The first resistance stands at 6.6800, while support begins at 6.6650.

 

[zForex]

Fed Tightening Bets Strengthen Dollar (11.12.2026)​

The US dollar index approached 103, its highest level since April 2025, after gaining more than 1% over two sessions. Rising rate expectations supported the rally, with Thursday's jobless claims and existing home sales figures next on the US economic calendar.

The 10-year US Treasury yield hovered near 5% as stronger-than-forecast October inflation and hawkish Fed remarks fueled expectations of further tightening. Governor Christopher Waller raised the possibility of a 50-basis-point hike in December, with markets pricing a 91% probability of an increase next month.

US stock futures fell on Thursday following reports that Nvidia's board is considering removing CEO Jensen Huang over allegations involving his personal relationships and a separate controversy linked to suspected Chinese espionage. The board is reportedly conducting an independent investigation, while Nvidia shares plunged as much as 10% in after-hours trading.

The selloff pushed Nasdaq 100 futures down 0.9% and S&P 500 futures down 0.4%, reversing some of Wednesday's gains. The Nasdaq had climbed 1.6% in the previous session, supported by a 25% surge in CoreWeave shares following an upbeat business forecast.

Economic Calendar​

EUR/USD Edges Up to 1.1080​

EUR/USD edged slightly higher around 1.1080 during Thursday's early Asian session, though expectations for aggressive Federal Reserve tightening continue to cap gains. Following elevated US inflation readings, markets price in an 87% probability of a rate increase at the December 8 to 9 meeting, with odds for a 50-basis-point move climbing to 12.7%.

In Europe, ECB Chief Economist Lane noted policy depends on energy price pass-through, while President Lagarde confirmed a December hike remains under consideration, though Rabobank anticipates reluctance toward further tightening afterward.

The first resistance is positioned at 1.1130 while the support starts from 1.1050.

Gold Holds Below $4,000 Level​

Gold held below $4,000 per ounce on Thursday following two consecutive sessions of declines, pressured by a stronger US dollar. Elevated US inflation readings and increasingly hawkish Federal Reserve rhetoric continue to fuel expectations for aggressive monetary tightening. Fed Governor Christopher Waller noted a 50-basis-point increase in December may be required, while Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan endorsed at least two additional quarter-point hikes to curb persistent price pressures.

Markets now price in a 91% probability of a December move, with attention shifting to upcoming jobless claims, existing home sales, and producer inflation data.

First resistance is seen at $4020, with initial support near $3940.

Yen Nears 159.5 Intervention Zone​

The Japanese yen traded near the key 159.5 per dollar threshold on Thursday after two consecutive sessions of losses, reaching a two-month low and heightening intervention risks. Japan's top currency diplomat, Atsushi Mimura, reminded traders of this summer's joint US-Japan currency intervention. The decline stems from broad dollar strength fueled by hot US inflation and hawkish Federal Reserve rhetoric.

Meanwhile, Japan's October producer prices climbed 7.1%, topping the 6.5% forecast and reinforcing expectations for Bank of Japan interest rate increases next month.

First resistance is seen at 160.40, with initial support near 159.00.

GBP/USD Stabilizes Near 1.3275​

GBP/USD stabilized around 1.3275 during Thursday's early Asian session as markets remained cautious ahead of today's UK third-quarter GDP release, where Société Générale projects 0.7% quarterly expansion.

Meanwhile, sterling finds underlying support from Bank of England policymaker Megan Greene's remarks calling for proactive monetary tightening to prevent elevated wage growth from becoming entrenched.

From a technical view, resistance stands near 1.3300, with support around 1.3200.

Silver Holds Below $52 Level​

Silver traded below $52 an ounce on Thursday, holding on to recent losses as a stronger US dollar weighed on the metal. The dollar was lifted by hotter US inflation data and increasingly hawkish Fed comments, which reinforced expectations of further rate hikes. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said a 50-basis-point hike in December may be needed, while Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan backed at least two more 25-basis-point increases to tackle persistent inflation.

Markets now see about a 91% chance of a hike next month and are also pricing in further moves in January and possibly April.

From a technical view, resistance stands near $53.10, while support is located around $50.80.

Bitcoin​

Bitcoin traded near $73,686, down 0.46% for the session. The cryptocurrency has shed 11.33% over the past four weeks and 26.07% year over year.

Initial resistance sits near 75,500, with support around 72,500.

Brent Oil​

Brent fell toward $91 a barrel as US-Iran negotiations remained deadlocked despite both sides avoiding further military action.

Tehran rejected Washington's demand to surrender its enriched uranium and insisted that sanctions and the US naval blockade must end before the Strait of Hormuz reopens. Meanwhile, Ukrainian drone attacks have disrupted Russian refineries accounting for roughly 30% of the country's oil-processing capacity since late October, adding another supply concern.

Resistance is seen at 94.00, while the nearest support stands at 90.50.

Nasdaq 100​

The US100 climbed 2.28% to 28,130, extending its four-week advance to 8.02%. The index is also up 12.50% year over year, reflecting stronger recent performance.

Resistance stands at 28,400, while the nearest support is located at 27,700.

Offshore Chinese Yuan​

USD/CNH hovered around 6.6673, with the yuan holding firm despite a broad dollar rally. Strong US inflation pushed the dollar index to a 19-month high of 103 and lifted December Fed hike expectations to 91%.

Unlike several other Asian currencies, the yuan showed little weakness against the stronger greenback.

The first resistance stands at 6.6800, while support begins at 6.6610.