Daily Market Analysis By zForex

[zForex]

EUR/USD Holds Near Support as Dollar Stays Firm​

EUR/USD is still trading in a mixed but defensive setup. The euro is holding near the 1.1400 area, but dollar demand remains active as DXY stays around the 101 zone.

Kevin Warsh’s inflation-focused tone is also supporting the dollar. Markets are watching whether the Fed may keep policy tight for longer, especially with CPI, PPI, and Warsh’s testimony in focus this week.

Eurozone data has shown some improvement, but the recovery is not strong enough to drive a clear EUR rebound. Softer growth signals from Germany and France still limit upside momentum.

Technically, EUR/USD remains below the 50-day SMA, and RSI near 41 shows weak momentum. The rising MACD suggests selling pressure is slowing, but the pair still needs a break above resistance to improve the outlook.

For now, 1.1400 is the main support, followed by 1.1360 and 1.1325. Resistance is seen at 1.1450. A move above 1.1450 could help recovery, while a break below 1.1400 may bring the low-1.13s back into focus.

 

[zForex]

CPI is in Focus as Geopolitical Risks Persist (07.14.2026)​

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi mocked President Trump's proposed 20% transit fee for cargo passing through the Strait of Hormuz, arguing that Iran, not the US, is responsible for securing the waterway and calling the proposed charge excessive.

Tensions in the Middle East pushed oil prices higher and US futures lower after President Trump reinstated the Hormuz blockade on Iranian vessels. Rising energy costs revived inflation concerns ahead of US CPI data and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's testimony. Bank earnings are also in focus, while chipmakers, including Sandisk and Intel, extended losses on concerns that AI spending could slow.

The Fed will maintain Treasury bill purchases at $10 billion per month, alongside $17.6 billion in reinvestments through August 13, to help offset declining reserves. Since late 2025, the Fed has gradually reduced purchases from $40 billion to $10 billion while keeping the option to pause quantitative tightening if liquidity conditions deteriorate.

President Trump warned that the US would "hit Iran very hard" and identified the fortified Pickaxe Mountain site near Natanz as a potential target. CENTCOM confirmed that US airstrikes entered a third consecutive night, with operations focused on reducing threats to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Economic Calendar​

EUR/USD Slips Near 1.1385​

The EUR/USD pair hovered near 1.1385, pressured by Strait of Hormuz disruptions following fresh U.S. strikes on Iran and safe-haven dollar demand from climbing oil prices.

Markets await the upcoming U.S. CPI report, with core inflation projected at 2.9%, while evaluating hawkish ECB rhetoric following Yannis Stournaras's cautious warnings. Technical indicators remain bearish, keeping the 1.1324 support level vulnerable while capping upside near 1.1450.

The first resistance is positioned at 1.1420 while the support starts from 1.1360.

Gold Holds Steady​

Gold consolidated near $4,000 on Tuesday, stabilizing after a 3% drop. Pressures mounted after President Trump reinstated a naval blockade on Iranian vessels and proposed a 20% transit fee in the Strait of Hormuz, sparking inflation fears.

Ongoing geopolitical frictions and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s upcoming testimony keep markets tense, with a September rate hike probability hovering at 51%.

First resistance is seen at $4080, with initial support near $3950.

USD/JPY Near Highs​

The USD/JPY pair consolidated near 162.43, sitting just below its recent multi-decade peaks. Geopolitical oil supply shocks in the Strait of Hormuz heavily pressure the import-dependent yen while lifting the dollar via safe-haven demand and tight Federal Reserve policy expectations.

Meanwhile, Japan's interest rate hike to 1.00% has done little to counter deeply negative real yields.

Initial resistance stands at 162.80, while the first support is at 161.50.

Sterling Slips Below $1.34​

The pound slipped under $1.34 as Middle East hostilities pushed crude prices higher, elevating inflation concerns and strengthening Bank of England rate-hike expectations. Domestic political shifts also loom, with Andy Burnham positioned to become Labour leader on Friday and prime minister by Monday.

Despite the geopolitical and political transitions, sterling's relative resilience suggests the market has factored in the disruption.

From a technical view, resistance stands near 1.3400, with support around 1.3320.

Silver Struggles Below $58​

Silver stayed depressed below $58 on Tuesday following a steep 4% drop. Pressures intensified after Donald Trump reinstated a shipping blockade on Iranian ships and proposed transit fees, driving oil higher and sparking fresh inflation concerns.

This escalating U.S.–Iran conflict, paired with Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh’s impending testimony, keeps markets anxious as a September rate hike gains traction.

From a technical view, resistance stands near $58.50, while support is located around $56.00.

Brent Crude Oil​

Brent crude climbed above $84 per barrel, bringing weekly gains to more than 10%. Prices surged after President Trump reinstated the Hormuz blockade on Iranian vessels and proposed a 20% cargo fee for Gulf countries benefiting from US naval protection.

Trump backed Senator Lindsey Graham's proposal to restore sanctions on buyers of Russian oil and gas, supporting prices.

Resistance is seen at 87.20, while the nearest support stands at 83.20.

Nasdaq 100​

The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.44% to 29,237.80 as higher oil prices and recent expectations for Fed tightening weighed on technology shares.

Semiconductor stocks led the decline following weaker earnings from Asia and intensifying competition, while higher Treasury yields continued to pressure valuations across AI, software, and cloud companies. Momentum also weakened technically, with the RSI slipping below 50.

Resistance stands at 29,450, while the nearest support is located at 29,000.

Chinese Yuan (USD/CNH)​

USD/CNY traded near 6.7802 after the PBOC set a strong daily fixing at 6.7972, helping stabilize the yuan despite broad dollar strength. Solid Chinese export data and continued liquidity support offset expectations of further Fed tightening, with markets pricing around a 62% chance of a September rate hike.

The pair remains in a broader downtrend, well below January's 6.9780 high, while Westpac continues to forecast 6.70 by year-end.

Resistance stands at 6.8000 while the nearest support is located at 6.7700.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD)​

Bitcoin traded near $62,030, extending its pullback after falling below $64,000.

Slower ETF inflows and MicroStrategy's planned $1.25 billion share sale added further pressure. Technical momentum remains weak, with the RSI hovering near 30.

First resistance is seen at 64,000, with initial support near 61,500.

 

[zForex]

EUR/USD Tests 1.1450 as Dollar Momentum Slows​

EUR/USD is trading in a mixed setup. Softer US CPI and flat core inflation reduced some Fed tightening pressure, which helped limit dollar strength. Still, Waller’s hawkish tone and Iran-related risk aversion are keeping defensive USD demand alive.

The euro also has some support from higher ECB rate expectations and energy-linked inflation concerns. But weak growth signals and energy-shock risks are still limiting confidence in a stronger euro rally.

The next key drivers are US PPI and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s testimony. These could decide whether the dollar weakens further or regains momentum.

Technically, EUR/USD remains below the 50-day SMA, so the broader trend is not fully bullish yet. RSI near 41 shows weak momentum, but the rising MACD suggests selling pressure is slowing.

For now, 1.1450 is the key resistance to watch. A sustained move above this area could support a recovery attempt. On the downside, 1.1400, 1.1360, and 1.1325 remain the main support levels.

 

[zForex]

Softer U.S. Inflation Supports Metals (07.15.2026)​

The US launched fresh airstrikes on Iran and confirmed a naval blockade on Iranian ports and coastal areas, effective 11:00 PM local time (4:00 PM ET), as part of efforts to reduce threats to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

President Trump abandoned his proposed 20% transit fee for Hormuz cargo, choosing to pursue trade and investment agreements with Gulf states instead. He reiterated that the strait remains open to all shipping except Iran-linked vessels, which remain under a full US blockade.

US futures moved higher after June inflation slowed to 3.5%, below expectations, with consumer prices posting their first monthly decline since 2020. The softer data reduced near-term Fed hike expectations, following Tuesday's gains in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq driven by tech, energy, and strong bank earnings. Results from Johnson & Johnson, Morgan Stanley, and BlackRock are next now.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh reiterated the Fed's commitment to restoring price stability, describing the US economy as resilient, with steady consumer spending, solid business investment led by AI infrastructure, and a healthy labor market supported by low unemployment and steady wage growth.

Economic Calendar​

EUR/USD Stays Under Pressure​

EUR/USD is trading near 1.1420, pinned by Middle East geopolitical risks and diverging central bank policies. Safe-haven demand and persistent inflation worries keep the Fed's "higher-for-longer" narrative intact, while cooling Eurozone inflation caps Euro recoveries.

Technically, the pair remains below its 50-day EMA, with an RSI near 45 signaling weak upward momentum within a consolidating range.

The first resistance is positioned at 1.1465 while the support starts from 1.1400.

Gold Firm Near $4,050​

Gold held near $4,050, rising over 1% after June inflation cooled to a below-forecast 3.5%, marking the first monthly consumer price drop since 2020. This eased Fed rate hike expectations, with Chair Warsh reaffirming a commitment to price stability without signaling further tightening.

Markets now price in a 50% chance of a September hike as U.S.–Iran friction keeps energy costs elevated.

First resistance is seen at $4100, with initial support near $4000.

USD/JPY Holds Multi-Decade Highs​

USD/JPY is consolidating near 162.15, holding multi-decade highs. Structural Yen selling persists, driven by wide interest rate differentials between the Fed and the Bank of Japan, alongside energy shocks from the Strait of Hormuz that are widening Japan's trade deficit.

Technically, moving averages remain bullish, but an RSI near 52 suggests flattening momentum. Meanwhile, the threat of Bank of Japan intervention looms large above the 162.00 threshold.

Initial resistance stands at 162.80, while the first support is at 161.50.

GBP Holds Firm as Oil Prices Rise​

The British Pound traded steadily near $1.34 as Hormuz-related U.S. airstrikes on Iran pushed crude oil higher, renewing inflation fears and cementing Bank of England rate-hike expectations.

Meanwhile, rapid political changes unfold at home: Andy Burnham is poised to secure the Labour leadership on Friday and become Prime Minister by Monday. Sterling's resilience suggests markets have largely priced in the turbulence.

From a technical view, resistance stands near 1.3440, with support around 1.3370.

Silver Climbs Toward $59​

Silver climbed nearly 2% to trade just below $59 after June inflation slowed to a below-forecast 3.5%, marking the first monthly CPI drop since 2020. This eased aggressive Fed rate-hike expectations.

Although Fed Chair Warsh pledged price stability without adding further tightening, persistent U.S.-Iran frictions keep energy prices elevated, leaving September hike odds at 50%.

From a technical view, resistance stands near $59.70, while support is located around $57.40.

Brent Crude Oil​

Brent crude climbed above $86 for a third consecutive session after President Trump warned of further strikes on Iran unless negotiations resume. He also withdrew the proposed 20% transit fee for Hormuz cargo, citing future Gulf investment instead.

The tensions revived supply concerns, interrupting the recent improvement in exports following the interim US-Iran agreement.

Resistance is seen at 87.20, while the nearest support stands at 83.20.

Nasdaq 100​

The Nasdaq 100 rose 1.31% to 29,648 after softer US inflation eased pressure on technology stocks. Strong demand for AI memory chips, supported by Micron and SK Hynix, also lifted sentiment. However, higher oil prices and Treasury yields continued to limit the advance.

Technical momentum improved, with the RSI near 56 recovering after briefly entering oversold territory.

Resistance stands at 29,800, while the nearest support is located at 29,500.

Chinese Yuan (USD/CNH)​

USD/CNY traded near 6.77 as the yuan remained supported by China's 3.69% current account surplus, driven by strong AI hardware exports. Diversified energy imports also helped cushion the economy from disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz.

The PBOC's stronger daily fixing near 6.7695 continued to support the currency. The RSI near 30 suggests consolidation may continue before the broader downtrend resumes.

Resistance stands at 6.7850 while the nearest support is located at 6.7540.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD)​

Bitcoin traded near $64,800, extending its recovery after softer US inflation reduced expectations for further Fed tightening. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $197.4 million in inflows, ending an eight-week streak of outflows, led by BlackRock's IBIT.

The RSI near 58 points to improving momentum, although a potential Head and Shoulders pattern remains visible on longer-term charts.

First resistance is seen at 65,500, with initial support near 63,800.

 

[zForex]

Metals Find Support After Losses (07.16.2026)​

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh rejected criticism over his ties to President Trump and defended the Fed's new internal task forces, describing himself as "an independent guy for an independent job." He maintained a firm focus on inflation while addressing questions on forward guidance, asset sales, and the Fed's AI initiatives.

The Fed's Beige Book showed economic activity expanded at a slight to moderate pace in 11 of 12 districts. Consumer spending remained restrained by higher fuel costs, employment increased modestly, and businesses continued to report moderate to strong price pressures, partly linked to Middle East tensions and tariffs.

CENTCOM confirmed a second wave of US airstrikes on Iran after an earlier round the same day, saying the operations target military capabilities threatening shipping through the Strait of Hormuz under President Trump's orders.

Russia's Maria Zakharova urged the US and Iran to return to talks brokered by Islamabad, warning that a wider regional conflict could have serious global consequences. She also criticized NATO's support for Ukraine and reiterated Russia's opposition to Western military involvement.

Economic Calendar​

EUR/USD Still Under Pressure​

The EUR/USD pair fluctuated near 1.1415–1.1440 within an established bearish trend. While softer U.S. CPI data of 3.5% briefly tempered Federal Reserve rate-hike expectations, Middle East geopolitical risks maintain a steady bid under the safe-haven dollar.

Meanwhile, the significant interest rate gap between the Fed and the ECB continues to burden the euro, with technicals confirming sellers remain in control.

The first resistance is positioned at 1.1500 while the support starts from 1.1400.

Gold Consolidates Near Support​

Gold fluctuated within a corrective $4,035–$4,065 range, down 28% from its January peak of $5,597, finding stability after cooler U.S. inflation data eased aggressive selling pressure.

While the Federal Reserve's hawkish yield environment limits substantial upside, ongoing safe-haven demand from Middle East friction and steady central bank accumulation by the PBoC help defend the critical $4,000 support zone from deeper liquidations.

First resistance is seen at $4100, with initial support near $4000.

USD/JPY Near Multi-Decade Peaks​

The USD/JPY pair consolidated near 162.00–162.20, retaining its 40-year highs due to a wide interest rate gap, despite softer U.S. inflation figures tempering near-term rate-hike expectations. Geopolitical oil shocks in the Strait of Hormuz uniquely pressure the import-dependent yen.

Furthermore, the absence of currency intervention from Tokyo and steady pension fund allocations leave the Japanese currency without vital structural support.

Initial resistance stands at 162.40, while the first support is at 161.50.

Sterling Hits New Highs​

The pound climbed to a multi-month high of $1.3540 on anticipation that incoming Prime Minister Andy Burnham will favor fiscal conservative Shabana Mahmood as chancellor over the expansionary Ed Miliband.

Also, rising Middle East tensions drove oil prices higher, supporting Bank of England rate-hike expectations with markets pricing in increases for November and March 2027.

From a technical view, resistance stands near 1.3600, with support around 1.3500.

Silver Finds Support​

Silver stabilized within a $57.50 to $58.80 range, down 52% from January's historic peak of $121.64 as softer U.S. inflation metrics cushioned further liquidation.

Geopolitical oil shocks add inflation pressure, while a stretched 69:1 gold-to-silver ratio and a sixth consecutive global supply deficit, fueled by strong tech demand, establish a firm structural floor under the metal.

From a technical view, resistance stands near $59.70, while support is located around $57.00.

Brent Crude Oil​

Brent crude traded around $84.70-$85.70, up nearly 8% this month after rebounding from the low $70s.

Naval blockades and renewed strikes around the Strait of Hormuz kept supply risks high, while a weaker US dollar, tighter OPEC+ supply, and falling inventories supported prices. The broader trend remains positive above key moving averages.

Resistance is seen at 87.20, while the nearest support stands at 83.20.

Nasdaq 100​

The Nasdaq 100 traded between 29,400 and 29,600 after a volatile stretch, with 20 of the past 26 sessions recording moves of more than 1%.

Softer US inflation supported technology stocks, although chip-sector weakness and higher oil prices continued to limit gains. The RSI near 61 suggests momentum is stabilizing below the record high of 30,660.

Resistance stands at 29,800, while the nearest support is located at 29,300.

Chinese Yuan (USD/CNH)​

USD/CNH traded between 6.7650 and 6.7780, extending its broader downtrend after softer US inflation weakened the dollar. China's strong current account surplus continued to support the yuan, while Fitch expects the currency to strengthen toward 6.72 by year-end.

With the PBOC easing its supportive daily fixings, the pair has become increasingly driven by global yield expectations and is down 5.71% over the past year.

Resistance stands at 6.7850 while the nearest support is located at 6.7540.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD)​

Bitcoin traded around $64,500-$65,100, recovering nearly 4% this week after falling to a 21-month low of $58,076 in June.

Softer US inflation supported demand, while spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $510 million in inflows after ending their recent outflow streak. Expectations for the July 29 FOMC meeting and higher oil prices continued to limit broader upside.

First resistance is seen at 65,500, with initial support near 63,800.

 

[zForex]

++ Brent update ++

Supply Risk Keeps Oil Supported​

Brent is trading with a strong geopolitical risk premium as Middle East tensions continue to dominate the market. Repeated U.S.-Iran strikes, threats around the Strait of Hormuz, and reports of possible Bab el-Mandeb disruption are keeping traders focused on supply security.

This matters because both routes are major energy chokepoints. Hormuz is key for Gulf crude and LNG flows, while Bab el-Mandeb connects the Red Sea with the wider global shipping network. Any serious disruption in either area could raise freight costs, delay shipments, and tighten near-term supply expectations.

The move also looks partly driven by defensive buying and short-covering after the recent rally. As long as headlines point to escalation, buyers may stay active. But if shipping flows stabilize or tensions cool, part of the risk premium could fade quickly.

Technically, the setup is improving but not fully confirmed yet. RSI near 55 shows positive momentum without being overbought, and MACD is rising. Still, Brent remains below the 50-day SMA, so the broader trend has not fully turned bullish.

The recent 7-day gain shows strong momentum, but ATR is still normal. This means the move is active, but not yet in an extreme volatility phase.

For now, the bias remains cautiously bullish while geopolitical risk stays high. A clear move above the 50-day SMA would strengthen the recovery, while failure near this zone could turn the move into another headline-driven spike.

 

[zForex]

Week Ends Under Geopolitical Pressure (07.17.2026)​

Global markets closed the week under pressure as escalating Middle East tensions kept energy prices elevated and reinforced inflation concerns. Softer US inflation weakened the dollar and reduced expectations of near-term Fed tightening, supporting the euro, yen and offshore yuan.

Recent US-Iran tensions pushed oil prices higher, raising concerns over inflation, interest rates and energy supply disruptions. Gold, Bitcoin and the US 100 Tech Index remained under pressure, while weak Japanese machinery orders and slower Chinese growth pointed to softer economic momentum in Asia.

Check more on zForex.com​

Euro Rises Past $1.145​

The euro climbed above $1.145, remaining near multi-week highs as softer U.S. inflation figures weighed on the dollar and fueled expectations for sustained ECB policy tightening. Following June's landmark rate hike, investors fully price in a September increase, with another move anticipated by spring 2027.

However, recent cautious remarks from ECB policymakers Piero Cipollone and Martin Kocher have tempered expectations for an immediate July rate hike.

The first resistance is positioned at 1.1500 while the support starts from 1.1420.

Gold Trades Below $4,000​

Gold traded below $4,000 on Friday, on track for a weekly decline exceeding 3% as escalating Middle East conflicts drove oil prices higher and intensified inflation and interest rate worries.

Following recent U.S. airstrikes on Iran, President Donald Trump warned of potential infrastructure attacks if diplomacy fails. In response, Iran targeted U.S. military bases in neighboring nations, raising fears of a wider war and prolonged energy supply disruptions.

First resistance is seen at $4000, with initial support near $3950.

Yen Holds Near 162​

The Japanese yen stabilized near the 162 level on Thursday, supported as cooling U.S. inflation data tempered expectations for aggressive Federal Reserve rate hikes and pressured the dollar.

However, escalating Middle East geopolitical tensions capped currency gains, with crude prices climbing following fresh U.S. strikes on Iran and a renewed Strait of Hormuz blockade.

Domestically, Japan's machinery orders fell sharper than expected in May, signaling persistent weakness in capital expenditure.

Initial resistance stands at 162.40, while the first support is at 161.50.

Sterling Holds Above $1.35​

The British pound maintained its position above $1.35, hovering near its highest point since mid-May. Sterling found support after reports surfaced that Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood is expected to be named chancellor under incoming Prime Minister Andy Burnham.

This potential appointment reassured markets, easing worries of more expansionary spending under Ed Miliband. Positive momentum was further reinforced by May's UK GDP data, which showed a return to 0.1% growth.

From a technical view, resistance stands near 1.3600, with support around 1.3440.

Silver Extends Weekly Losses​

Silver remained suppressed below $56 on Friday, headed for a steep weekly loss exceeding 7%. Escalating Middle East tensions drove crude prices higher, intensifying inflation and interest rate concerns.

Sentiment weakened further following targeted U.S. strikes on Iran and President Donald Trump's warning of potential infrastructure attacks if diplomatic efforts fail.

From a technical view, resistance stands near $56.00, while support is located around $54.50.

Brent Crude Oil​

Brent crude climbed above $85 per barrel and was heading for a weekly gain of around 12% as growing tensions between the US and Iran fueled concerns over supply disruptions in the Middle East.

The US carried out several strikes on Iran this week, reportedly hitting an oil tanker near a key export terminal. President Donald Trump also warned that Iranian infrastructure could be targeted if diplomatic efforts fail.

Resistance is seen at 87.20, while the nearest support stands at 83.20.

Nasdaq 100​

The US 100 Tech Index traded at 28,734, down 477 points (1.62%) from the previous session. Over the past four weeks, the index has fallen 5.50%, though it remains 24.57% higher than a year ago.

Trading Economics forecasts and analyst estimates suggest the index could reach 29,202 by the end of the current quarter before easing to 27,409 over the next year.

Resistance stands at 29,800, while the nearest support is located at 29,300.

Chinese Yuan (USD/CNH)​

The offshore yuan traded near 6.76 per dollar, close to its strongest level in a month, supported by a weaker US dollar despite mixed economic signals from China. Softer US inflation data reduced expectations of a near-term Federal Reserve rate hike, with traders increasingly expecting the Fed to leave rates unchanged in July.

In China, the economy expanded 4.3% year-on-year in the second quarter, marking its slowest growth since late 2022 and remaining below the government's 2026 growth target.

Resistance stands at 6.7850 while the nearest support is located at 6.7540.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD)​

Bitcoin traded at $63,752, down 39 points (0.06%) from the previous session. Over the past four weeks, the cryptocurrency has declined 1.35%, while its yearly loss stands at 45.97%.

According to Trading Economics forecasts and analyst estimates, Bitcoin is projected to reach $65,907 by the end of the current quarter and $72,228 within the next year.

First resistance is seen at 65,500, with initial support near 62,100.

 

[zForex]

+ GOLD Update

XAUUSD Breaks Below $4,000 as Sellers Stay in Control​

Gold has slipped below the key $4,000 level, showing that safe-haven demand is not strong enough to fully offset bearish pressure for now. US-Iran tensions, Hormuz shipping risks, and higher oil prices should normally support gold, but the market is still reacting more to inflation worries, firm yields, and dollar strength.

The main issue is that geopolitical risk is creating a mixed impact. It supports gold through safe-haven flows, but it also pushes oil higher and raises inflation concerns. That can keep the Fed cautious and support higher rates, which is negative for non-yielding assets like gold.

Technically, the setup remains weak. XAUUSD is still below the 50-day SMA, MACD is falling, and the 7-day move remains negative. RSI near 37 shows weak momentum and is close to oversold, but not enough yet to confirm a strong reversal.

For now, the $4,000 level has turned into the first resistance. A recovery above this area could bring $4,100 and $4,150 back into focus. If gold stays below $4,000, sellers may continue to target $3,950, then $3,900 and $3,885.

Overall, the market is still headline-driven, but the chart is bearish. Gold needs a clear reclaim of $4,000 to ease downside pressure. Until then, rebounds may remain limited.