All forex traders have a negative losing edge

[Enivid]

Positive expectancy is not an edge, it is a historical expectancy of the same forex casino game i.e . This positive expectancy or so called edge of yours will fail in the future. This is why writing all sorts of analysis, without using it works, because it is never used for real trading.

Actually, it is. If you don't agree, please offer your own definition of an edge. By the way, it seems that the guy in the video uses the same definition of an edge as I do.

There are no forex systems with an edge. An edge is something that happens more often repeatedly, in a random situation or random forex game or a casino game.

This is a rather poor definition.

correction: Quite a few brokers pretend to give zero spreads . Of course, they charge commission for trading and slippages.

commission for trading and slippages = equals spread, so same thing .

Have you ever tried trading news with spreads vs. no spreads (but with commission)? It makes a world of difference even if that commission is quite large. As for slippage, it is a non-issue as long as the trade volumes are low.

 

[new digital]

Actually, it is. If you don't agree, please offer your own definition of an edge. By the way, it seems that the guy in the video uses the same definition of an edge as I do.
.

There are no forex systems with an edge. The edge of historical back testing , soon disappears on a live account with non fills, slippage, re quotes , spread widening and other tactics of forex brokers i.e bucket shop.

An edge has to be present in random games, if in random tests, back tested trading systems either casino systems show profit , of 2 to 5 % ( the edge), these systems or games are likely to make profit.If a system has a 10 % edge , after erosion of the edge , system is likely to still remain with a profitable edge.The systems or trading games are likely to lose their edge , in a live account situation. In forex the forex bucket shops kill the edge of the forex trader, the remainder of the edge will be wiped out , with slippage etc.

Definition of an edge: An edge is present before any trades are placed , or any dice is rolled in a casino, in a random tests and live real time trading / rolls of dice. This edge never diminishes . All persons operating this edge , should get the same results, all casinos operating this edge get same results.

A person who makes money with a system , which other traders fail to do, is simply more skilled and professional as a trader. He does not have an edge , he has skills of a professional. He still has a negative edge of the spread in forex. Different types of traders have different skills, they don't have different edges of fundamental trader edge, technical trader edge.

 

[Enivid]

There are no forex systems with an edge. The edge of historical back testing , soon disappears on a live account with non fills, slippage, re quotes , spread widening and other tactics of forex brokers i.e bucket shop.

That's a rather bold statement to make. You could probably rephrase it to "I have not seen Forex systems that are profitable in live accounts." Otherwise you would need to offer some proof to your claim.

An edge has to be present in random games, if in random tests, back tested trading systems either casino systems show profit , of 2 to 5 % ( the edge), these systems or games are likely to make profit.If a system has a 10 % edge , after erosion of the edge , system is likely to still remain with a profitable edge.The systems or trading games are likely to lose their edge , in a live account situation. In forex the forex bucket shops kill the edge of the forex trader, the remainder of the edge will be wiped out , with slippage etc.

So, now you say that the edge can be there and having "backtesting edge" is alright if it is high enough? I agree with you that a Forex trader has to choose a broker carefully for not to destroy one's edge with the broker's shenanigans (or just unsuitable conditions).

 

[new digital]

That's a rather bold statement to make. You could probably rephrase it to "I have not seen Forex systems that are profitable in live accounts." Otherwise you would need to offer some proof to your claim.



So, now you say that the edge can be there and having "backtesting edge" is alright if it is high enough? I agree with you that a Forex trader has to choose a broker carefully for not to destroy one's edge with the broker's shenanigans (or just unsuitable conditions).

Do you want me to post the results of almost 1,000 EAS , 30,000 hours of work on trading and show you an edge that exists in other markets , but not in forex. Forex eur usd example of pair should tell you 50 % eur 50 % usd , less 2 spread is 98% = negative losing edge.

You need a system with a big edge, if it was ever possible in an efficient market, but problem is all system edges diminish when market conditions change.

 

[Enivid]

Forex eur usd example of pair should tell you 50 % eur 50 % usd , less 2 spread is 98% = negative losing edge.

What exactly do you mean?

You need a system with a big edge, if it was ever possible in an efficient market, but problem is all system edges diminish when market conditions change.

The problem of edge diminishing or disappearing when market conditions change can be solved.

 

[new digital]

What exactly do you mean?

I mean if usd had a long edge edge of 60 40 , = 20 % edge in favour of eur , you could trade longs only with a 20 % edge.

The problem of edge diminishing or disappearing when market conditions change can be solved.

The edge has to be present before any trade is made, diminishing market conditions happen , as a sequence failed set ups due to market behavior.There is no way change a system , since you do not know the outcome and behavior of the market in the future or the future behavior when the edge is diminishing.

The future behavior of the market is unpredictable and trying to solve it would damage the system profits/edge.

 

[Enivid]

The edge has to be present before any trade is made, diminishing market conditions happen , as a sequence failed set ups due to market behavior.There is no way change a system , since you do not know the outcome and behavior of the market in the future or the future behavior when the edge is diminishing.

The future behavior of the market is unpredictable and trying to solve it would damage the system profits/edge.

Yes, of course. That's why a trader should continuously trade multiple systems (or multiple variants of a system) in parallel and analyze their performance to see any significant long-term changes and switch the system accordingly.

 

[new digital]

Yes, of course. That's why a trader should continuously trade multiple systems (or multiple variants of a system) in parallel and analyze their performance to see any significant long-term changes and switch the system accordingly.

System hopping is to give hope, when there is no edge.System hopping does not give an edge.

Look at he successful traders , they use maths models and are quaint phd traders. The amateur using lagging indicators, hindsight trend trading and after the event traders.......have no edge.....................only maths models can give you an edge.

https://www.earnforex.com/forum/threads/only-mathematicians-can-make-money.39093/

https://mobygeek.com/features/meet-james-simons-the-richest-mathematicians-in-the-world-4356

 

[DT77]

System hopping is to give hope, when there is no edge.System hopping does not give an edge.

Look at he successful traders , they use maths models and are quaint phd traders. The amateur using lagging indicators, hindsight trend trading and after the event traders.......have no edge.....................only maths models can give you an edge.

https://www.earnforex.com/forum/threads/only-mathematicians-can-make-money.39093/

https://mobygeek.com/features/meet-james-simons-the-richest-mathematicians-in-the-world-4356

What are your thoughts on Pitchfork trading? Lots of mathematical theories (some would say facts) around trading pitchforks.......

 

[new digital]

What are your thoughts on Pitchfork trading? Lots of mathematical theories (some would say facts) around trading pitchforks.......

pitchfork is drawn on lagging information , after the event .You could draw pitch forks in a casino, based on historical results of bets. Red is down black is up, draw a centre line.

 

[Enivid]

System hopping is to give hope, when there is no edge.System hopping does not give an edge.

That's not system hopping in a true sense - it is keeping the strategy adapted to the changing market conditions.

Look at he successful traders , they use maths models and are quaint phd traders. The amateur using lagging indicators, hindsight trend trading and after the event traders.......have no edge.....................only maths models can give you an edge.

Successful traders use lots of different trading techniques, including some rather simple. Look at the top EAs in the last MQL5 Championship. Most of the ones showing very good profit/drawdawn ratio use trading ideas I'd call mediocre.

 

[new digital]

That's not system hopping in a true sense - it is keeping the strategy adapted to the changing market conditions.

Look at the top EAs in the last MQL5 Championship. Most of the ones showing very good profit/draw dawn ratio use trading ideas I'd call mediocre.

Robust, reliable strategies EAS is not what the MQL5 horse betting championship is for, these won't survive like all the " one horse mql5 championship winners", they have all lost money over 10 years.

This is all amateur mickey mouse stuff on mql5 , if you want to discuss serious mathematical formulas and EAS ,look at those produced by PhDs employed by the "quant shop" Renaissance Technologies.They have earned over $100 billion.


https://www.earnforex.com/forum/threads/is-mql5-com-a-scam-site.34686/

 

[Enivid]

Robust, reliable strategies EAS is not what the MQL5 horse betting championship is for, these won't survive like all the " one horse mql5 championship winners", they have all lost money over 10 years.

How did you determine that they all have lost money over 10 years? What adaptation procedures did you follow when checking them on 10-year data?

This is all amateur mickey mouse stuff on mql5 , if you want to discuss serious mathematical formulas and EAS ,look at those produced by PhDs employed by the "quant shop" Renaissance Technologies.They have earned over $100 billion.

No, I want to discuss your claim that "All forex traders have a negative losing edge". Because while the case of RT's outstanding performance is quite interesting in and of itself, it has little to do with this thread's topic.

 

[new digital]

How did you determine that they all have lost money over 10 years? What adaptation procedures did you follow when checking them on 10-year data?

Many of the championship EAS were studied by me , the fact that some of them performed only when markets are trending, others made money when markets were ranging on eurgbp . some made money in uptrends and others in down trends.

When market conditions changed , they all failed and lost money in the following years. Many are freely available for you try.


https://www.mql5.com/en/forum/194504

 

[DT77]

pitchfork is drawn on lagging information , after the event .You could draw pitch forks in a casino, based on historical results of bets. Red is down black is up, draw a centre line.

Once drawn there is an 80% chance that the price will hit the centre line again, allegedly......does trading that not give you an edge?

 

[new digital]

Once drawn there is an 80% chance that the price will hit the centre line again, allegedly......does trading that not give you an edge?

There is no proof of that , it is not possible.