Price Action Swing Trading - The PAST Strategy

Nigel Price

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2013
836
3
64
www.forexuseful.com
Hi all,

I came across a really interesting test recently which I think might be of interest to some you.

It's very simple, but the implications for your trading could be profound. Put it this way, you could learn a lot about the sustainability of your trading style by taking it and seeing how you get on.

You can find the test itself here.

It came about as a result of this study.

I wrote a blog post about it, which deals with what we can learn from it when it comes to forex risk management.

I'll monitor in here for the next couple of days - if you have any questions let me know!

(PS. I got $83.37)
 

Nigel Price

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2013
836
3
64
www.forexuseful.com
Final video on our January series on Risk Management guys, you can check it out below if you fancy it!

We speak about "Trader's Ruin", look at an interesting academic studies about it, and see if we can do anything to avoid it.

Enjoy, any comments welcome!

Nigel

 

Nigel Price

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2013
836
3
64
www.forexuseful.com
Hey Guys, Happy Monday!

Just to keep you in the loop - one of the pairs I'm interested in at the moment is EURGBP.

This is the monthly chart, so we have to be patient.

But the chart is showing a long wick reversal, followed by a strong reversal, followed by another long wick reversal candle.

I don't know what the political situation is going to throw up over the next couple of months, but the chart is showing signs of weakness. Could be one to keep an eye on!

Remember that any of these trades should only be taken if you are adhering to the all of the important risk management topics we've been speaking about recently.

Chart below:
 

Matthew West-Robinson

Active Trader
Jan 27, 2019
12
1
37
33
Milton Keynes, UK
Are there any PAST traders still out there? Nigel, bought yours and Jon's e-book and have been following you for a while but only recently found this forum. Hope you're still around! I'm going to post a blog on this forum of my PAST setups, performance and monthly profit and loss. I believe with good risk management (which is of prime importance in PAST), I can be successful. I hope others will find it useful too...if of course there are any PAST traders still around??

All the best,

Matt
 

Matthew West-Robinson

Active Trader
Jan 27, 2019
12
1
37
33
Milton Keynes, UK
So here are forex pairs I'm watching for w/c Monday 27th January 2019.

USD/MXN

Screen Shot 2019-01-27 at 11.05.14.png

A lot of interest in this pair that I have a buy order ready to be executed as soon as the market opens. 2 weeks ago we had a hammer
or pin bar followed by another bearish candle but it looks like the bears are losing steam.

Here is the one hour chart:


Screen Shot 2019-01-27 at 11.06.14.png

A nice break on this chart and it looks like the retest has failed. My SL is 18.9506.

CHF/JPY

Another hammer on the weekly here with support at around 109.47:

Screen Shot 2019-01-27 at 11.07.26.png

This is the four hour chart. If price breaks break this trend line I will be thinking of going long:

Screen Shot 2019-01-27 at 11.07.42.png

USD/CNH

Here is the weekly chart. Looks like the trend is down. There was a rally two weeks ago but it appears the bears have pushed back:

Screen Shot 2019-01-27 at 11.08.19.png

Here is the four hour - Looks like a very good break down. I am hoping there will be a retest. If not, I will be looking for other trend breaks as price continues down. We will see...

Screen Shot 2019-01-27 at 11.08.31.png

By the way, sorry about the multiple lines on my weekly chart. My broker's charting software remembers the lines I have drawn on smaller timeframes and then puts them on the weekly but they don't appear in the right position unless I zoom in to a smaller timeframe...very strange!

You can tell I'm not using MT4. It is a popular broker though and I'm sure some of you will be able to hazard a guess - the clue is social trading network and large spreads / fees ... I like this broker for their very easy to use platform. However, I'm open to any suggestions of some decent brokers. By the way, can't use MT4 as I'm running of a Mac :p.

Will keep you posted on progress. Good luck to you all!

Matt
 
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Matthew West-Robinson

Active Trader
Jan 27, 2019
12
1
37
33
Milton Keynes, UK
By way of update my USD/MXN order was triggered ,there was a slight gap on opening which means with my SL still in its original place, my total risk is now 1.5% of my equity rather than 1% - I can live with that though but will be wary when placing future orders. It is moving into profit and once it equals the amount of my stop, I will move it break even.

I am also looking at applying PAST to some stocks. A.G Barr PLC is of particular interest. Here is the weekly chart:

BAG_Weekly.jpg

A very nice engulfing weekly candle with a gap down on market open.

Here is the one hour and a potential break of the bullish trend line. I have opened a sell position and my SL is 757.78 with 1% risked. I think this has great potential but the market behaves in mysterious ways. I am slightly cautious with stocks as the potential for gap ups / downs is more risky than the Forex markets given the market opening hours and liquidity - but we will see...

BAG_1hr.jpg

All the best,

Matt
 

Matthew West-Robinson

Active Trader
Jan 27, 2019
12
1
37
33
Milton Keynes, UK
Hi to whomever still haunts this forum!

I had to take a break but back again and this time aim to post regular updates on my progress with the PAST strategy.

So, I am currently in three trades. I have a buy trade in the NZD/USD which I have held since Monday 3rd June. This was taken from two hammers or bullish pin bar candles on the weekly which were preceded by a nice bearish trend. I got in on the 1hr break trend line break to the upside with my SL just below the low of the previous candle and the trend line. It was a 23 pip risk which I have now brought to my SL to break even. I am currently +68 pips above break even.

I have circled my entry on the break below:

Screen Shot 2019-06-06 at 21.17.06.png

I've also been short the EUR/NZD and long the NZD/CAD since Tuesday. Both of these trades are in profit and SL's have been adjusted to break even. +33pips over break even on the EUR/USD and +12 pips over break even on the NZD/CAD.

FYI - I am trading a small account and using approx. 1% of my equity as my initial risk in each trade.

I'm sure the market will stop me out on a couple of my trades before the markets close for the weekend but we'll see.

Good luck to you all.

Matt
 

Matthew West-Robinson

Active Trader
Jan 27, 2019
12
1
37
33
Milton Keynes, UK
End of Week Update 1 - 8th June 2019

As expected I was stopped out on my NZD/CAD trade at break even. The market also decided to go against my other trades skimming away some of the profit during the day. Then the NFP figures were released and the NZD/USD trade exploded upwards. I intend to hold on to it for as long as I can.

Open Trades = 2
NZD/USD +112 pips over break even.
EUR/NZD +54 pips over break even.

I'll be scanning the markets for other potential opportunities next week.
 

Matthew West-Robinson

Active Trader
Jan 27, 2019
12
1
37
33
Milton Keynes, UK
Potential trades for w/c Monday 10th June 2019

EUR/CHF


Here is the weekly chart with a nice bullish hammer:

Screen Shot 2019-06-09 at 08.02.40.png

This is the 4hr chart. Waiting for the break of this trend line to the upside to consider the entry.

Screen Shot 2019-06-09 at 08.04.35.png

NZD/CHF

Here's the weekly chart with a bullish engulfing candle preceded by a nice downtrend:


Screen Shot 2019-06-09 at 08.05.55.png

Here is the 4hr chart. Range between the 50 & 100 MA's narrowing and now above the 50. Waiting for a break of the trend line to enter.

Screen Shot 2019-06-09 at 08.07.33.png

NZD/JPY

Here is the weekly chart. Appears we're in a downward channel long term but may have a bounce from resistance to the upside with the bullish engulfing candle.

Screen Shot 2019-06-09 at 08.29.50.png

Here is the 4 hr chart. It looks like there was already a clean break out last week so I'll be keen to see the price at the next open. May be a re-test?


Screen Shot 2019-06-09 at 08.12.20.png

Oil

Here is the weekly chart. This might be one I avoid as it looks like the price will be consolidating long term.

Screen Shot 2019-06-09 at 08.13.48.png

Here is the 1hr chart. There was a clean break last week with price ending up above both the 50 & 100 MA. I'll be watching this closely this evening when the market re-opens.

Screen Shot 2019-06-09 at 08.16.30.png

So a few potentials. Let's see what the week brings.

All the best,

Matt
 

Matthew West-Robinson

Active Trader
Jan 27, 2019
12
1
37
33
Milton Keynes, UK
Well, it's the end of the week and sadly, I was stopped out on all my trades. Not to worry. Only took a small loss on the NZD/JPY of about 30 pips.

My patience was sorely tested - particularly with the NZD/USD trade which closed this morning. At one point I was some 8x my risk in profit....The bears took it all...Like Nigel says though, I consider this a simple 'cost of business'. The big swings exist and do occur regularly across all markets and as and when I catch the next one it will make up for all those losses. Until then I will continue to risk a very small percentage of my account, remove risk where possible and cut losses quickly.

Here's a screenshot from the NZD/USD - Just look at that red candle!

Screen Shot 2019-06-14 at 20.58.23.png


Here's a screenshot from my trading log:

Screen Shot 2019-06-14 at 20.54.35.png

So here's what I'm looking at for w/c 17th June:

GBP/AUD - Buy

Here's the weekly chart. We have a nice bullish engulfing candle bouncing off the horizontal trend line.

Screen Shot 2019-06-14 at 21.32.42.png

Here's the one hour chart and my attempt at a trend line. Not the most well established trend line but will be keeping an eye on this pair over the coming week:

Screen Shot 2019-06-14 at 21.36.38.png

EUR/NOK - Sell

Here's a nice shooting star on the weekly.

Screen Shot 2019-06-14 at 21.40.44.png


And here's the 4hr chart - waiting for a break of the trend line to the downside.

Screen Shot 2019-06-14 at 21.42.14.png


And that's it for this week. Have a great weekend folks.

All the best,

Matt
 

Attachments

Matthew West-Robinson

Active Trader
Jan 27, 2019
12
1
37
33
Milton Keynes, UK
Hi all,
Brief update - I got in EUR/NOK last night following break of the trend line and blimey - it broke massively! - After a few hours, I am already some 10x risk in profit! Going to hold onto it and see.

Also missed the boat on the GBP/AUD a couple of days ago as there was a break to the upside but have just got in on the re-test.

EUR/NOK

EURNOK.jpg

GBP/AUD

GBPAUD.png

All the best,

Matt
 

Matthew West-Robinson

Active Trader
Jan 27, 2019
12
1
37
33
Milton Keynes, UK
Stopped out of the GBP/AUD for a small loss. Still in on the EUR/NOK, now some 14x my risk in profit. I am hoping I can ride it down to about 9.600 which is around weekly support:

Screen Shot 2019-06-24 at 06.35.06.png

For this week, I am currently looking at the following markets. All potential longs!

GBP/JPY

Here's the weekly chart with the bullish hammer and a nice preceding down trend:

Screen Shot 2019-06-24 at 06.37.00.png

Here's the hourly. Price is currently testing resistance line:

Screen Shot 2019-06-24 at 06.37.20.png

USD/MXN

Weekly. Another bullish hammer.

Screen Shot 2019-06-24 at 06.37.55.png

Here's the 4 hr. Hoping for a break to the upside.

Screen Shot 2019-06-24 at 06.38.13.png

GBP/CAD

Here's the weekly. Another bullish pin bar or hammer:

Screen Shot 2019-06-24 at 06.38.44.png

Here's the 4 hr chart. Resistance was tested whilst I was asleep last night.

Screen Shot 2019-06-24 at 06.39.03.png

Finally, here is an extract from my journal.

I am currently 1.5% down. But if I were to close my EUR/NOK trade now I would be some 5% up for the month.

Screen Shot 2019-06-24 at 06.52.39.png

All the best,

Matt
 

Matthew West-Robinson

Active Trader
Jan 27, 2019
12
1
37
33
Milton Keynes, UK
Hi all, had a few trades this week where I was stopped out, sometimes on false breakouts and other times where my 1hr / 4hr S&R lines didn't quite marry up. I guess I got into the mindset of FOMO; 'Fear of missing out'. I am adjusting my rules as I think last week I spent too much time checking the charts on the hourly looking for entries. With my full time job and home life, I think it's unhealthy and doesn't do my trading mindset any good. So, I have taken the decision to trade clear breakouts on the 4hr time frame only. This means less time on the charts, less FOMO attitude and a more healthy mentality.

Since I have been trading PAST since the beginning of the month, I am now 3.5% down in terms of closed trades. My EUR/NOK trade is still open and price has been in a fairly narrow range this week. Have lost some profit but I am holding onto it. With this trade still open I would say my account is approx. break even. I haven't closed a single winner yet and I have 12 trades closed either at break even or at a loss and yet overall the account is flat. This to me demonstrates the potential of the PAST strategy if you can stick by your risk management and trading rules. I am confident in the long run, my winners will make up for all those losses.

Here is a snap shot of my trading journal and the trades I have taken this week.

Screen Shot 2019-06-30 at 11.02.10.png

You will see from my log that I also have two other open trades in USD/MXN and GBP/JPY (further attempts!). These are in profit but not enough for me to reduce my SL to break even yet.

Here's the EUR/NOK chart on the weekly. You can see there was a brief rally this week but I don't think it's enough to overcome the bearish momentum from the previous week. I am hoping price will reach a level of 9.600. At this level I may consider taking profits as the price here will be at a well establish weekly support. We'll see.

Screen Shot 2019-06-30 at 11.06.18.png

Here's the GBP/CAD weekly chart. Despite the bullish hammer seen the week before, whatever strength the bulls had was completely quashed this week:

Screen Shot 2019-06-30 at 11.12.10.png

Here is the GBP/JPY. I have a trade open but the trade isn't in enough profit for me to bring the SL to break even yet. This is the weekly chart:

Screen Shot 2019-06-30 at 11.16.35.png

Here's the USD/MXN on the weekly. Price in this market has been very volatile this year and I expect to be stopped out but you never know. You can see there were some really nice swings last year. Again, I am only risking a small amount of my account (0.5%) and there is potential for the price to hit $20 which for me would be about 18x my risk. The three outcomes are: Lose 0.5%, lose nothing (break even) or grow my account by possibly 9%. This is an optimum set up for me :)

Screen Shot 2019-06-30 at 11.27.25.png

I'll continue to keep you (or me since I only appear to frequent this forum now) updated. These are the markets I am watching for next week:

USD/HKD - Buy

Here's the weekly chart. A bullish pin bar signal:

Screen Shot 2019-06-30 at 11.29.04.png

Here's the 4hr chart. Looking for a break out of the 'box' below to the upside:

Screen Shot 2019-06-30 at 11.29.21.png

Gold - Sell

Here's the weekly chart. A very nice shooting star or bearish pin bar. I will be watching the gold market with much interest!

Screen Shot 2019-06-30 at 11.30.21.png

Here's the 4 hr chart. Waiting for a break of the trend line to the downside to consider an entry. The elipse represents the all the price action that occurred within the weekly shooting star candle above.

Screen Shot 2019-06-30 at 11.30.59.png

And that's it for this week. Enjoy the rest of your weekends!

All the best,

Matt