News Announcement & Chart Analysis

️ High-Impact Economic Calendar – August 14, 2025​

Timeline: GMT | Focused Currencies: AUD, GBP, EUR, USD, JPY
01:30 GMT
Australia – Unemployment Rate
Forecast: 4.2% | Previous: 4.3%
Currency: AUD
Why it matters:
A lower unemployment rate could signal a job market heating up — and put the Australian dollar on the front foot. Traders will watch for any surprise drop that could stir RBA rate speculation.
01:30 GMT
Australia – Employment Change
Forecast: 13K | Previous: 2K
Currency: AUD
Trading insight:
A sharp jobs rebound here would be a bullish sign for domestic spending power and could give AUD pairs a morning boost.
01:30 GMT
Australia – Full-Time Employment Change
Forecast: 15K | Previous: -38.2K
Currency: AUD
Market pulse:
Full-time roles mean more stability and spending power. A big positive swing could hint at stronger growth ahead.
06:00 GMT
United Kingdom – GDP Growth Rate YoY
Forecast: 0.7% | Previous: 1.3%
Currency: GBP
⚠️ Market watch:
Slowing annual growth could weigh on sterling and keep BoE hawks cautious. A miss here might sour sentiment fast.
06:00 GMT
United Kingdom – GDP Growth Rate QoQ Prel
Forecast: 0.1% | Previous: 0.7%
Currency: GBP
Why traders care:
A soft quarterly number would signal fading momentum. Sterling bulls will be hoping for any upside surprise.
06:00 GMT
United Kingdom – Industrial Production MoM
Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: -0.9%
Currency: GBP
Quick take:
From contraction to growth? This could be a welcome sign that UK industry is finding its footing again.
06:00 GMT
United Kingdom – GDP MoM (June)
Forecast: 0.1% | Previous: -0.1%
Currency: GBP
Trading takeaway:
Even a small rebound matters here — it could be enough to shift short-term GBP sentiment.
09:00 GMT
Euro Area – Industrial Production MoM
Forecast: -0.6% | Previous: 1.7%
Currency: EUR
Market movers:
A pullback this sharp could stoke concerns about eurozone growth and pressure the euro.
12:30 GMT
United States – PPI MoM
Forecast: 0.2% | Previous: 0.0%
Currency: USD
Trading insight:
Higher producer prices could keep inflation chatter alive — and the Fed on edge.
12:30 GMT
United States – PPI YoY
Forecast: 2.5% | Previous: 2.3%
Currency: USD
Why it matters:
If producer prices keep climbing, markets may start bracing for stickier inflation and prolonged higher rates.
12:30 GMT
United States – Initial Jobless Claims
Forecast: 228K | Previous: 226K
Currency: USD
⚠️ Market watch:
Any uptick could hint at cooling labor momentum, while a drop could keep the USD supported.
23:50 GMT
Japan – GDP Growth Rate QoQ Prel
Forecast: 0.2% | Previous: 0.0%
Currency: JPY
Market insight:
Even modest growth here could lift yen sentiment — and make the BoJ slightly more comfortable holding policy steady.

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How Markets Respond to Major Economic Announcements​


U.S. PPI (MoM & YoY) – July 16, 2025​

In July 2025, U.S. consumer prices rose 0.2% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year, as President Donald Trump’s tariffs had only a modest overall impact on inflation. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.3% on the month and 3.1% annually — the highest since February — driven largely by higher shelter, transportation, and medical care costs. Equity markets advanced following the release, while Treasury yields were mixed, as traders boosted expectations for a September Federal Reserve rate cut. Although tariffs influenced certain categories, such as household furnishings, their broader effect remained limited. Economists, however, warned that price pressures could persist as tariffs continue to filter through the economy.

US PPI.jpg


Market Note: Geopolitical Risk & Earnings Season Volatility
Keep a close eye on geopolitical tensions — they can significantly impact market volatility, shift risk sentiment, and weigh on global equity performance.

Earnings season is a major catalyst for price action across global indices. While headline names like the US30, S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, FTSE 100, and DAX40 often take the spotlight, broader equity benchmarks worldwide can also react sharply. Market sentiment is shaped not only by results, but also by forward guidance and executive commentary — making this a key period for both opportunity and risk.

​

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.
 
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️ High-Impact Economic Calendar – August 15, 2025​

Timeline: GMT | Focused Currencies: CNY, USD
02:00 GMT
China – Unemployment Rate
Forecast: 5.0% | Previous: 5.0%
Currency: CNY
Market insight:
A steady reading may keep policy expectations unchanged, but any drop below forecast could boost the yuan as traders price in stronger consumer spending power.
02:00 GMT
China – Industrial Production YoY
Forecast: 6.4% | Previous: 6.8%
Currency: CNY
⚠️ What’s at stake:
Industrial production is the engine of China’s economy. Slowing growth could signal cooling momentum, pressuring both the yuan and regional market sentiment.
02:00 GMT
China – Retail Sales YoY
Forecast: 5.0% | Previous: 4.8%
Currency: CNY
Trading takeaway:
A pickup in retail sales would suggest resilient consumer demand — a key support for China’s post-pandemic recovery narrative.
12:30 GMT
United States – NY Empire State Manufacturing Index
Forecast: 1.0 | Previous: 5.5
Currency: USD
Why traders care:
A steep drop in this regional manufacturing gauge could point to slowing industrial activity, potentially weighing on USD sentiment.
12:30 GMT
United States – Retail Sales YoY
Forecast: 3.5% | Previous: 3.9%
Currency: USD
Market movers:
Retail spending drives the bulk of U.S. economic growth. A slowdown here could temper rate hike expectations and weaken the dollar.
12:30 GMT
United States – Retail Sales MoM
Forecast: 0.4% | Previous: 0.6%
Currency: USD
Quick take:
A softer monthly gain could raise concerns about fading consumer momentum heading into Q3.
13:15 GMT
United States – Industrial Production MoM
Forecast: 0.0% | Previous: 0.3%
Currency: USD
Trading takeaway:
Flat output growth may reinforce worries over manufacturing slowdown — a risk factor for broader U.S. GDP.
14:00 GMT
United States – Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel
Forecast: 60.5 | Previous: 61.7
Currency: USD
Market watch:
Weaker consumer sentiment could signal caution in household spending, potentially dampening growth expectations.

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Market Reactions to High-Impact Economic Events​


U.S. Retail Sales - 17 July, 2025​

In June 2025, U.S. retail sales rebounded 0.6% after a 0.9% drop in May, exceeding expectations and suggesting modest economic improvement, which gave the Federal Reserve more reason to delay interest rate cuts while assessing tariff-driven inflation effects. Core retail sales rose 0.5%, with gains led by auto dealerships, building materials, clothing, and online sales, though some increases were likely due to higher prices from tariffs. Weekly jobless claims fell by 7,000 to 221,000 — a three-month low — signaling steady labor market conditions, while continuing claims edged up to 1.956 million. Economists noted that consumer spending improved moderately in Q2, supported by a stable job market, though risks from trade policy uncertainty, slower wage growth, and higher import prices persisted. Treasury yields were mixed, the dollar strengthened, and U.S. stocks traded higher following the data.

EURUSD Retail.jpg


Market Note: Geopolitical Risk & Earnings Season Volatility
Keep a close eye on geopolitical tensions — they can significantly impact market volatility, shift risk sentiment, and weigh on global equity performance.

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.
 

️ High-Impact Economic Calendar – August 19, 2025​

Timeline: GMT | Focused Currencies: AUD, USD, CAD, JPY
00:30 GMT
Australia – Westpac Consumer Confidence Change
Forecast: 0.2% | Previous: 0.6%
Currency: AUD
Market insight:
A dip in confidence would suggest consumers are turning more cautious. Since household spending drives much of Australia’s economy, this release could nudge the Aussie dollar if sentiment shifts sharply.
12:30 GMT
United States – Building Permits MoM Prel
Forecast: -0.2% | Previous: -0.1%
Currency: USD
Quick take:
Permits are a leading indicator for housing construction. Even small declines can signal fading builder optimism, potentially weighing on broader growth sentiment.
12:30 GMT
United States – Housing Starts MoM
Forecast: -2.2% | Previous: 4.6%
Currency: USD
⚠️ What’s at stake:
A sharp reversal after last month’s jump could suggest volatility in the housing sector. Traders will be watching closely as housing feeds directly into economic confidence.
12:30 GMT
Canada – Core Inflation Rate MoM
Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: 0.1%
Currency: CAD
Trading takeaway:
A stronger monthly print would point to sticky inflation pressures — and could revive expectations for further Bank of Canada tightening.
12:30 GMT
Canada – Core Inflation Rate YoY
Forecast: 2.7% | Previous: 2.7%
Currency: CAD
Why it matters:
This measure strips out volatile items, offering the cleanest read on inflation trends. A stable figure keeps the BoC in wait-and-see mode, but an upside surprise could spark CAD strength.
12:30 GMT
Canada – Inflation Rate YoY
Forecast: 1.8% | Previous: 1.9%
Currency: CAD
Market movers:
Headline CPI is closely watched for policy cues. Even a small acceleration may fuel speculation of more aggressive rate action.
12:30 GMT
Canada – Inflation Rate MoM
Forecast: 0.5% | Previous: 0.1%
Currency: CAD
Trading insight:
A sharp monthly pickup could reignite inflation fears — potentially lifting the loonie as traders price in tighter conditions.

23:50 GMT
Japan – Exports YoY
Forecast: -2.1% | Previous: -0.5%
Currency: JPY
Market insight:
Exports are Japan’s growth engine, particularly in autos, machinery, and electronics. A deeper contraction could highlight global demand weakness, weighing on the yen.

23:50 GMT
Japan – Imports YoY
Forecast: -10.4% | Previous: 0.2%
Currency: JPY
⚠️ What’s at stake:
A steep drop in imports may signal slowing domestic demand — though it could also improve the trade balance if export resilience holds. Traders will parse the mix closely.

23:50 GMT
Japan – Balance of Trade
Forecast: ¥250B | Previous: ¥153.1B
Currency: JPY
Trading takeaway:
A stronger surplus could support yen sentiment, especially if driven by resilient exports rather than collapsing imports.

23:50 GMT
Japan – Machinery Orders MoM
Forecast: -0.5% | Previous: -0.6%
Currency: JPY
Why traders care:
A slight improvement from last month’s contraction may ease concerns over capital spending, but momentum still looks fragile.

23:50 GMT
Japan – Machinery Orders YoY
Forecast: 5.4% | Previous: 4.4%
Currency: JPY
Market movers:
A healthy annual increase suggests businesses remain committed to investment, offering a potential cushion for Japan’s growth outlook.

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Market Reactions to High-Impact Economic Events​


Sticky Inflation Pressures Keep Bank of Canada on Alert – CPI Report (July 15, 2025)​

Canada’s inflation rose 1.9% year over year in June, up from 1.7% in May, as a smaller drop in gasoline prices and faster gains in durable goods such as vehicles and furniture added upward pressure on the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Core inflation excluding energy remained firmer at 2.7%, showing that underlying price pressures persisted despite the April removal of consumer carbon pricing. On a monthly basis, CPI advanced 0.1% (0.2% seasonally adjusted). Clothing and footwear prices accelerated amid tariff-related trade uncertainty, while grocery inflation slowed as fresh vegetable prices declined for the first time since 2021. The data signaled that disinflation progress was uneven, with sticky core prices keeping pressure on the Bank of Canada. As a result, the Canadian dollar gained value, with traders pricing in a higher likelihood that the BoC would lean hawkish to prevent inflation from regaining momentum.

Canada’s CPI rose 1.9% in June, up from 1.7% in May, with core inflation holding at a firm 2.7%. Stronger vehicle and furniture prices offset softer food costs, while gasoline declines slowed. The hotter-than-expected inflation supported expectations of tighter policy, giving the CAD a short-term boost.

CADJPY.jpg


Market Note: Geopolitical Risk & Earnings Season Volatility
Keep a close eye on geopolitical tensions — they can significantly impact market volatility, shift risk sentiment, and weigh on global equity performance.

At the White House today, Trump set red lines on Ukraine by ruling out both NATO membership and reclaiming Crimea in any peace deal. European leaders arrive at 16:00 GMT, Zelensky meets Trump at 17:00, with full summit talks at 19:00. The backdrop: intensified Russian strikes and civilian deaths in Kharkiv, raising the stakes for negotiations. If tensions escalate, both oil and gold could rise on risk premiums and safe-haven demand, while signs of de-escalation could push both lower.

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Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.
 
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️ High-Impact Economic Calendar – August 20, 2025​

Timeline: GMT | Focused Currencies: NZD, GBP, EUR, USD, AUD
02:00 GMT
New Zealand – RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
Forecast: 3.0% | Previous: 3.25%
Currency: NZD
Market insight:
Short-term rates drive currency valuation. A cut here could pressure the kiwi, while a surprise hold or hike may spark sharp NZD gains.
06:00 GMT
United Kingdom – Core Inflation Rate MoM
Forecast: 0.2% | Previous: 0.4%
Currency: GBP
Trading takeaway:
Slowing monthly core inflation could ease pressure on the Bank of England, softening sterling momentum.
06:00 GMT
United Kingdom – Inflation Rate YoY
Forecast: 3.8% | Previous: 3.6%
Currency: GBP
⚠️ What’s at stake:
A higher annual CPI may revive hawkish BoE expectations, potentially lifting the pound.
06:00 GMT
United Kingdom – Core Inflation Rate YoY
Forecast: 3.8% | Previous: 3.7%
Currency: GBP
Why traders care:
Excluding volatile components, this is the key measure for policy. Any upside surprise could reinforce sterling strength.
06:00 GMT
United Kingdom – Inflation Rate MoM
Forecast: 0.2% | Previous: 0.3%
Currency: GBP
Quick take:
A softer monthly figure may ease concerns about near-term price pressures.
06:00 GMT
Germany – Producer Price Index MoM
Forecast: 0.1% | Previous: 0.1%
Currency: EUR
Market movers:
Flat producer prices suggest limited cost pressures, reducing immediate ECB concerns.
06:00 GMT
Germany – Producer Price Index YoY
Forecast: -1.4% | Previous: -1.3%
Currency: EUR
Trading insight:
Falling annual producer prices highlight disinflationary forces, a potential drag on euro sentiment.
18:00 GMT
United States – FOMC Minutes
Currency: USD
Market insight:
Markets parse the minutes for hawkish or dovish tones. A stronger emphasis on inflation risks could boost the dollar, while cautious language may soften it.
23:00 GMT
Australia – S&P Global Composite PMI Flash
Forecast: 54.0 | Previous: 53.8
Currency: AUD
⚡ Why it matters:
A solid composite reading above 50 indicates expansion across sectors, supporting AUD sentiment.
23:00 GMT
Australia – S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash
Forecast: 51.5 | Previous: 51.3
Currency: AUD
Quick take:
Even modest gains in manufacturing PMI above 50 point to steady industrial growth.
23:00 GMT
Australia – S&P Global Services PMI Flash
Forecast: 54.4 | Previous: 54.1
Currency: AUD
Trading takeaway:
Services dominate the economy. Continued expansion here may reinforce optimism around Australia’s growth outlook.

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Market Reactions to High-Impact Economic Events​


RBNZ Interest Rate Decision – May 28, 2025: NZD/USD Reaction​

In May 2025, New Zealand’s Monetary Policy Committee voted 5–1 to cut the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 3.25 percent, citing weaker domestic activity, declining core inflation, and spare capacity in the economy. Annual CPI inflation had risen to 2.5 percent in the first quarter, within the 1–3 percent target band, while elevated commodity prices and earlier rate cuts were helping the economy recover from its 2024 contraction. Policymakers warned that rising global tariffs and heightened policy uncertainty were likely to weigh on global growth and New Zealand’s exports, creating downside risks. Still, despite firmer near-term inflation expectations, the Committee expected inflation to return toward the 2 percent midpoint over the medium term, leaving the Bank positioned to respond flexibly to both domestic and international developments.

NZD/USD initially fell after the rate cut, as lower interest rates reduce the currency’s yield appeal. However, the move had been fully priced in, and the accompanying statement emphasized recovery, strong export prices, and inflation within target. With no indication of a more aggressive easing cycle, traders unwound short positions, driving a sharp rebound that lifted NZD/USD to an intraday high of 0.59797.

NZDUSD.jpg




Market Note: Geopolitical Risk & Earnings Season Volatility
Keep a close eye on geopolitical tensions — they can significantly impact market volatility, shift risk sentiment, and weigh on global equity performance.

Earnings season is a major catalyst for price action across global indices. While headline names like the US30, S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, FTSE 100, and DAX40 often take the spotlight, broader equity benchmarks worldwide can also react sharply. Market sentiment is shaped not only by results, but also by forward guidance and executive commentary — making this a key period for both opportunity and risk.

​

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.
 

High-Impact Economic Calendar – August 21, 2025​

Timeline: GMT | Focused Currencies: JPY, EUR, GBP, USD, CAD
00:30 GMT
Japan – S&P Global Services PMI Flash
Forecast: 52.8 | Previous: 53.6
Currency: JPY
Market insight:
A small dip in services PMI may suggest softer momentum, but readings above 50 still point to ongoing expansion.
00:30 GMT
Japan – S&P Global Composite PMI Flash
Forecast: 51.4 | Previous: 51.5
Currency: JPY
Why it matters:
Captures the overall private sector outlook. A stable print reinforces steady growth, while any surprise slip could weigh on yen sentiment.
00:30 GMT
Japan – S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash
Forecast: 49.4 | Previous: 48.9
Currency: JPY
⚠️ What’s at stake:
Still below 50, the sector remains in contraction. Traders watch closely for signs of a rebound that could support the yen.
07:30 GMT
Germany – HCOB Manufacturing PMI Flash
Forecast: 48.7 | Previous: 49.1
Currency: EUR
Trading takeaway:
A weaker PMI highlights ongoing strain in Europe’s largest economy. Any further dip may pressure the euro as industrial headwinds persist.
08:30 GMT
United Kingdom – S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash
Forecast: 48.6 | Previous: 48.0
Currency: GBP
Market movers:
Stuck below 50, UK manufacturing remains fragile. A surprise rebound could lend short-term support to sterling.
08:30 GMT
United Kingdom – S&P Global Services PMI Flash
Forecast: 51.7 | Previous: 51.8
Currency: GBP
Quick take:
Services hold the bulk of UK output. A steady reading above 50 keeps growth momentum alive, a positive for GBP.
08:30 GMT
United Kingdom – S&P Global Composite PMI Flash
Forecast: 51.8 | Previous: 51.5
Currency: GBP
Trading insight:
Composite PMI consolidates both services and manufacturing. Stability above 50 signals resilience in overall economic activity.
12:30 GMT
United States – Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Forecast: 9.0 | Previous: 15.9
Currency: USD
⚠️ What’s at stake:
A sharp drop could reflect cooling factory sentiment. Markets will watch closely as this index often leads broader industrial data.
12:30 GMT
United States – Initial Jobless Claims
Forecast: 225K | Previous: 224K
Currency: USD
Why traders care:
Weekly claims are a direct read on labor health. A surprise jump could weaken USD by raising concerns about job market strength.
12:30 GMT
Canada – PPI MoM
Forecast: 0.2% | Previous: 0.4%
Currency: CAD
Market insight:
Cooling producer prices may ease inflation pressure and reduce expectations for BoC tightening.
12:30 GMT
Canada – PPI YoY
Forecast: 1.9% | Previous: 1.7%
Currency: CAD
Trading takeaway:
A rise in annual producer prices suggests inflationary momentum could persist, supporting CAD.
13:45 GMT
United States – S&P Global Composite PMI Flash
Forecast: 53.0 | Previous: 55.1
Currency: USD
Market watch:
A slowdown in momentum could temper dollar strength, especially if services also cool significantly.
13:45 GMT
United States – S&P Global Services PMI Flash
Forecast: 53.0 | Previous: 55.7
Currency: USD
Quick take:
Services have been driving US growth. A softer print could raise concerns over the strength of consumer demand.
13:45 GMT
United States – S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash
Forecast: 49.7 | Previous: 49.8
Currency: USD
⚡ Why it matters:
Still below 50, this points to contraction. Traders will watch if the downtrend deepens, signaling weakness in industrial momentum.
14:00 GMT
United States – Existing Home Sales
Forecast: 3.9M | Previous: 3.93M
Currency: USD
Trading takeaway:
Housing is a critical growth driver. Lower sales may reflect affordability pressures, potentially softening economic outlook.
14:00 GMT
United States – Existing Home Sales MoM
Forecast: -0.2% | Previous: -2.7%
Currency: USD
Market insight:
A smaller decline may hint at stabilization, but overall momentum in housing remains fragile.
14:00 GMT
United States – CB Leading Index MoM
Forecast: -0.2% | Previous: -0.3%
Currency: USD
Why traders care:
A composite of 10 indicators, this index gives an early steer on economic direction. Another negative print would reinforce slowdown concerns.
23:30 GMT
Japan – Inflation Rate YoY
Forecast: 3.3% | Previous: 3.3%
Currency: JPY
Market movers:
Stable inflation at elevated levels may keep the BoJ cautious but alert to pressures that could shift policy.
23:30 GMT
Japan – Core Inflation Rate YoY
Forecast: 3.1% | Previous: 3.3%
Currency: JPY
⚠️ What’s at stake:
A slight easing in core inflation could reduce pressure on the BoJ to tighten, softening yen sentiment.
23:30 GMT
Japan – Inflation Rate MoM
Forecast: 0.2% | Previous: 0.1%
Currency: JPY
Quick take:
Even small monthly increases show inflationary stickiness — a factor that could sway yen positioning.

In July, U.S. business activity strengthened, led by the services sector, with S&P Global’s flash Composite PMI rising to 54.6, the highest since December, from 52.9 in June, while the services PMI jumped to 55.2 from 52.9. Inflation pressures increased as companies charged more for goods and services, largely due to tariffs on imports. Manufacturing slipped into contraction at 49.5, reflecting both front-loading ahead of tariffs and rising costs, which many firms directly linked to import duties. Input and output price gauges climbed, with service providers and manufacturers citing tariffs as a key driver of higher costs. While demand improved and new orders rose, sentiment remained subdued amid concerns over tariffs, state funding cuts, and weaker exports, signaling risks to growth even as inflation was expected to accelerate above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

GBPUSD Flash PMI.jpg



Market Note: Geopolitical Risk & Earnings Season Volatility
Keep a close eye on geopolitical tensions — they can significantly impact market volatility, shift risk sentiment, and weigh on global equity performance.

Earnings season is a major catalyst for price action across global indices. While headline names like the US30, S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, FTSE 100, and DAX40 often take the spotlight, broader equity benchmarks worldwide can also react sharply. Market sentiment is shaped not only by results, but also by forward guidance and executive commentary — making this a key period for both opportunity and risk.

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.
 

️ High-Impact Economic Calendar – August 22, 2025​

Timeline: GMT | Focused Currencies: CAD, USD
12:30 GMT
Canada – Retail Sales MoM Prel
Forecast: 1.3% | Previous: -1.1%
Currency: CAD
Market insight:
A rebound in monthly retail sales would mark a sharp turnaround from last month’s contraction. Stronger spending could lift the Canadian dollar as traders price in firmer domestic demand.
12:30 GMT
Canada – Retail Sales YoY
Forecast: 5.3% | Previous: 4.9%
Currency: CAD
Why it matters:
Annual growth in retail sales reflects the strength of consumer demand. A sustained increase signals resilience in Canada’s economy and can reinforce CAD momentum.
14:00 GMT
United States – Fed Chair Powell Speech
Currency: USD
⚠️ What’s at stake:
Powell’s remarks often set the tone for monetary policy expectations. Any hawkish hints about inflation risks could strengthen the dollar, while dovish language may trigger a softer USD reaction.

Market Note: Geopolitical Risk & Earnings Season Volatility
Keep a close eye on geopolitical tensions — they can significantly impact market volatility, shift risk sentiment, and weigh on global equity performance.

Earnings season is a major catalyst for price action across global indices. While headline names like the US30, S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, FTSE 100, and DAX40 often take the spotlight, broader equity benchmarks worldwide can also react sharply. Market sentiment is shaped not only by results, but also by forward guidance and executive commentary — making this a key period for both opportunity and risk.

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.
 

️ High-Impact Economic Calendar – August 24, 2025​

Timeline: GMT | Focused Currencies: NZD

22:45 GMT
New Zealand – Retail Sales YoY Q2
Forecast: 1.0% | Previous: 0.7%
Currency: NZD
Market insight:
A modest pickup in annual retail sales suggests gradual improvement in consumer demand. Stronger-than-expected growth could support the New Zealand dollar by signaling healthier household spending trends.


️ High-Impact Economic Calendar – August 25, 2025​

Timeline: GMT | Focused Currencies: EUR, USD
08:00 GMT
Germany – Ifo Business Climate
Forecast: 87.0 | Previous: 88.6
Currency: EUR
Market insight:
This key sentiment survey covers thousands of firms across sectors. A weaker reading may reinforce concerns about slowing eurozone growth and weigh on the euro.
14:00 GMT
United States – New Home Sales MoM
Forecast: -1.1% | Previous: 0.6%
Currency: USD
⚠️ What’s at stake:
Housing is a sensitive gauge of consumer demand. A contraction in new home sales momentum could signal affordability strains and soften growth outlook.
14:00 GMT
United States – New Home Sales
Forecast: 620K | Previous: 627K
Currency: USD
Trading takeaway:
New home sales ripple through the economy — from mortgages to furnishings. A dip could weigh on USD if it signals housing market weakness.
14:30 GMT
United States – Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index
Forecast: 0.2 | Previous: 0.9
Currency: USD
Quick take:
As a regional factory gauge, this index can foreshadow national manufacturing trends. A near-flat reading suggests limited momentum in the industrial sector.

Market Reactions to High-Impact Economic Events​

U.S. Data Mixed: Jobless Claims Fall, PMI Rises, Housing Sales Disappoint — July 24, 2025​

The latest U.S. data painted a mixed economic picture, as jobless claims fell to a three-month low of 217,000, highlighting labor market stability, while July’s Composite PMI rose to 54.6, its strongest since December, with services expanding but manufacturing slipping into contraction. Tariff-driven price pressures underscored inflation risks, giving the Fed little incentive to ease policy despite political calls for cuts. Meanwhile, new home sales came in weaker at 627,000 versus 690,000 expected, which briefly lifted EUR/USD to 1.1789 before the dollar regained strength, driving the pair down to 1.1735 as the market leaned on broader signs of U.S. resilience.

EURUSD spiked to 1.17888 after weaker-than-expected U.S. New Home Sales (627K vs 690K forecast), but the move quickly faded. Earlier in the day, the dollar was supported by stronger Jobless Claims (217K, 3-month low) and resilient PMI data — Composite PMI Flash 55.2, Services 55.2, Manufacturing 49.5. These reinforced underlying USD strength, capping the euro’s upside. The pair reversed from 1.17712 → 1.17355, highlighting a clean short setup on fading housing momentum against broad USD support.

EURUSD New Home sales.jpg


Market Note: Geopolitical Risk & Earnings Season Volatility
Keep a close eye on geopolitical tensions — they can significantly impact market volatility, shift risk sentiment, and weigh on global equity performance.

Earnings season is a major catalyst for price action across global indices. While headline names like the US30, S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, FTSE 100, and DAX40 often take the spotlight, broader equity benchmarks worldwide can also react sharply. Market sentiment is shaped not only by results, but also by forward guidance and executive commentary — making this a key period for both opportunity and risk.

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.
 

️ High-Impact Economic Calendar – August 26, 2025​

Timeline: GMT | Focused Currencies: AUD, USD
01:30 GMT
Australia – RBA Meeting Minutes
Currency: AUD
Market insight:
The minutes provide a detailed look at the RBA’s policy debate. Any hawkish tone on inflation could fuel AUD strength, while cautious wording may weigh on the currency.
12:30 GMT
United States – Durable Goods Orders MoM (July)
Forecast: -2.5% | Previous: -9.3%
Currency: USD
⚠️ What’s at stake:
Durable goods reflect business and consumer demand for long-lasting items. Another decline would highlight industrial weakness, potentially pressuring the dollar.
14:00 GMT
United States – Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (August)
Forecast: -19 | Previous: -20
Currency: USD
Quick take:
Still deep in negative territory, this regional gauge signals continued strain in factory activity. Any improvement, however small, could offer a short-term boost to USD.
14:00 GMT
United States – CB Consumer Confidence (August)
Forecast: 96.0 | Previous: 97.2
Currency: USD
Trading takeaway:
Confidence levels give an early read on household spending trends. A further dip may stoke concerns over consumer resilience, while a stronger print would support the dollar.

Market Response to Key Economic Events​

GBPUSD Reaction – U.S. Durable Goods Data (July 25, 2025)​

On July 25, 2025, the U.S. Census Bureau reported that new orders for durable goods fell 9.3% in June to $311.8 billion, reversing part of May’s sharp 16.5% gain. The decline was driven by a 22.4% drop in transportation equipment orders, while excluding transportation, orders edged up 0.2%. Despite the weak headline, underlying momentum showed resilience: shipments rose 0.5%, marking a seventh straight monthly gain, and unfilled orders increased 1.0% to $1.47 trillion, led by transportation equipment. Inventories also rose for the ninth consecutive month, up 0.2% to $588.6 billion, with machinery contributing the most.

Post-release of Durable Goods Orders m/m (–9.3%) and Core Durable Goods Orders ex-transport m/m (+0.2%), GBPUSD moved lower despite the soft headline. The pair opened at 1.34453 and dropped to a post-release low of 1.34166, showing USD strength. Markets largely discounted the headline drop as transportation volatility drove the decline, while shipments and unfilled orders pointed to underlying resilience. Combined with reduced Fed rate-cut expectations and a risk-off tone, investors favored the dollar as a safe haven, keeping GBP under pressure.


GBPUSD Durbale Goods.jpg



Market Note: Geopolitical Risk & Earnings Season Volatility
Keep a close eye on geopolitical tensions — they can significantly impact market volatility, shift risk sentiment, and weigh on global equity performance.

Earnings season is a major catalyst for price action across global indices. While headline names like the US30, S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, FTSE 100, and DAX40 often take the spotlight, broader equity benchmarks worldwide can also react sharply. Market sentiment is shaped not only by results, but also by forward guidance and executive commentary — making this a key period for both opportunity and risk.

​

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.
 

️ High-Impact Economic Calendar – August 27, 2025​

Timeline: GMT | Focused Currencies: AUD, EUR
01:30 GMT
Australia – Monthly CPI Indicator (July)
Forecast: 2.0% | Previous: 1.9%
Currency: AUD
Market insight:
The monthly CPI offers an early snapshot of inflation trends. A stronger reading could fuel expectations of RBA tightening, giving the Aussie dollar a lift.
06:00 GMT
Germany – GfK Consumer Confidence (September)
Forecast: -21.3 | Previous: -21.5
Currency: EUR
Trading takeaway:
Still deeply negative, confidence remains weak. Any upside surprise, however small, could improve sentiment toward the euro by signaling a potential consumer rebound.


Market Reactions to High-Impact Economic Events​


AUDUSD Price Reaction – Australia’s Monthly CPI Indicator (July 30, 2025)​

Australia’s inflation cooled further in mid-2025, with second-quarter CPI falling to 2.1% year-on-year, its lowest since March 2021 and below expectations, while quarterly inflation slowed to 0.7% from 0.9% in Q1. The June monthly CPI also eased to 1.9% year-on-year, down from 2.1% in May, with food, alcohol, tobacco, and housing driving gains while transport costs fell. Underlying measures softened, with trimmed mean inflation slipping to 2.1% from 2.4%. The weaker readings reinforced expectations of an RBA rate cut in August, with analysts noting rising unemployment and slower GDP growth, and markets projecting rates could fall to 2.85% by mid-2026.

AUDUSD CPI MoM.jpg


Market Note: Geopolitical Risk & Earnings Season Volatility
Keep a close eye on geopolitical tensions — they can significantly impact market volatility, shift risk sentiment, and weigh on global equity performance.

Earnings season is a major catalyst for price action across global indices. While headline names like the US30, S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, FTSE 100, and DAX40 often take the spotlight, broader equity benchmarks worldwide can also react sharply. Market sentiment is shaped not only by results, but also by forward guidance and executive commentary — making this a key period for both opportunity and risk.

​

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.
 

️ High-Impact Economic Calendar – August 28, 2025​

Timeline: GMT | Focused Currencies: CHF, USD, JPY
07:00 GMT
Switzerland – GDP Growth Rate YoY
Forecast: 1.3% | Previous: 2.0%
Currency: CHF
Market insight:
Growth in one of the world’s wealthiest economies looks to be cooling. With Switzerland’s strength rooted in pharmaceuticals, hi-tech, and banking, a slowdown could dent confidence and weigh on the franc.
12:30 GMT
United States – GDP Growth Rate QoQ
Forecast: 3.0% | Previous: -0.5%
Currency: USD
⚡ Why it matters:
From contraction to a sharp rebound — this print could reshape market sentiment. Strong GDP would reinforce the U.S. growth story, bolster Fed confidence, and underpin dollar strength.
12:30 GMT
United States – Initial Jobless Claims
Forecast: 237K | Previous: 235K
Currency: USD
Trading takeaway:
Still near historic lows, weekly claims continue to showcase labor market resilience. Any upside surprise could quickly shift USD direction as traders reassess Fed outlook.
23:30 GMT
Japan – Unemployment Rate
Forecast: 2.5% | Previous: 2.5%
Currency: JPY
Quick take:
Japan’s job market remains one of the tightest globally. A steady reading keeps yen direction muted, but a drop would add fuel to expectations of stronger consumer demand.
23:50 GMT
Japan – Retail Sales MoM
Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: 1.0%
Currency: JPY
Market insight:
Household demand appears to be slowing after a strong June. Any miss here could deepen worries over domestic consumption — a key growth pillar for Japan.
23:50 GMT
Japan – Retail Sales YoY
Forecast: 2.2% | Previous: 2.0%
Currency: JPY
Why traders care:
Even with monthly softness, annual sales are improving. Stronger consumer spending would support growth momentum and lend underlying strength to the yen.
23:50 GMT
Japan – Industrial Production MoM
Forecast: -0.5% | Previous: 2.1%
Currency: JPY
⚠️ What’s at stake:
A sharp swing from strong June output to contraction would highlight fragile manufacturing conditions. Markets will be alert — this release often sets the tone for yen movement.

​

How Markets React to Major Economic Announcements​

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U.S. GDP Final Q1 & Jobless Claims Data – June 26, 2025​

On June 26, 2025, U.S. labor market data pointed to softening conditions as weekly jobless claims fell by 10,000 to 236,000, but continuing claims rose to 1.974 million, the highest since 2021, signaling hiring struggles. Economists warned that President Trump’s tariffs were creating uncertainty, making businesses reluctant to expand payrolls, with the unemployment rate expected to tick up to 4.3% in June. At the same time, first-quarter GDP was revised down to a 0.5% contraction from an earlier 0.2% estimate, reflecting weaker consumer spending, while the goods trade deficit widened 11.1% to $96.6 billion on falling exports. Durable goods orders rebounded 16.4% in May, driven by a 230% surge in commercial aircraft, though underlying business spending remained constrained by tariff uncertainty. Despite softening data, the Federal Reserve held rates steady at 4.25%-4.50%, signaling caution as inflation risks from tariffs persisted.

EURUSD GDP Unemployment.jpg



Market Note: Geopolitical Risk & Earnings Season Volatility
Keep a close eye on geopolitical tensions — they can significantly impact market volatility, shift risk sentiment, and weigh on global equity performance.

Earnings season is a major catalyst for price action across global indices. While headline names like the US30, S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, FTSE 100, and DAX40 often take the spotlight, broader equity benchmarks worldwide can also react sharply. Market sentiment is shaped not only by results, but also by forward guidance and executive commentary — making this a key period for both opportunity and risk.

​

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.
 

️ High-Impact Economic Calendar – August 29, 2025​

Timeline: GMT | Focused Currencies: JPY, EUR, CHF, USD, CAD
05:00 GMT
Japan – Consumer Confidence
Forecast: 34.2 | Previous: 33.7
Currency: JPY
Market insight:
Confidence remains weak, but even small improvements could support yen sentiment by hinting at better household demand.
06:00 GMT
Germany – Retail Sales YoY
Forecast: 2.0% | Previous: 4.9%
Currency: EUR
Why it matters:
Annual sales growth is cooling. A softer print could weigh on the euro as it signals pressure on domestic demand.

06:00 GMT
Germany – Retail Sales MoM
Forecast: -0.3% | Previous: 1.0%
Currency: EUR
⚠️ Quick take:
A negative monthly reading would reinforce concerns of slowing consumption in Europe’s largest economy.
06:45 GMT
France – PPI YoY
Forecast: 0.4% | Previous: 0.2%
France – PPI MoM
Forecast: 0.5% | Previous: -0.2%
Currency: EUR
Market insight:
Producer prices are turning higher again. If confirmed, inflation pressures may begin re-emerging in the French economy.

06:45 GMT
France – Inflation Rate YoY
Forecast: 1.1% | Previous: 1.0%
France – Inflation Rate MoM Prel
Forecast: 0.5% | Previous: 0.2%
Currency: EUR
Why traders care:
Signs of stronger inflation could lift ECB policy expectations and provide support for the euro.
07:55 GMT
Germany – Unemployment Rate
Forecast: 6.3% | Previous: 6.3%
Currency: EUR
Quick take:
A steady jobless rate signals stability, but traders will watch closely for any surprise rise that could weigh on the euro.
12:00 GMT
Germany – Inflation Rate YoY Prel
Forecast: 2.1% | Previous: 2.0%
Germany – Inflation Rate MoM Prel
Forecast: 0.1% | Previous: 0.3%
Currency: EUR
⚠️ Market movers:
Germany’s inflation sets the tone for eurozone CPI. Even small deviations here can move EUR pairs sharply.
12:30 GMT
United States – Personal Income MoM
Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: 0.3%
Currency: USD
Market insight:
Steady income growth supports spending but may not shift Fed expectations without surprises.

12:30 GMT
United States – Personal Spending MoM
Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: 0.3%
Currency: USD
Why it matters:
Consumer spending drives nearly two-thirds of U.S. GDP. Stable growth keeps momentum intact.

12:30 GMT
United States – Core PCE Price Index YoY
Forecast: 2.8% | Previous: 2.8%
United States – Core PCE Price Index MoM
Forecast: 0.2% | Previous: 0.3%
Currency: USD
⚡ What’s at stake:
As the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, Core PCE will be watched closely. A hotter print could quickly strengthen the dollar.
12:30 GMT
Canada – GDP Growth Rate QoQ
Forecast: 0.2% | Previous: 0.5%
Canada – GDP Growth Rate Annualized
Forecast: 0.2% | Previous: 2.2%
Canada – GDP MoM
Forecast: 0.1% | Previous: -0.1%
Currency: CAD
Market insight:
Canada’s economy is slowing sharply. Weak growth could weigh on CAD, though a positive monthly print may soften the blow.
13:45 GMT
United States – Chicago PMI
Forecast: 46.0 | Previous: 47.1
Currency: USD
⚠️ Quick take:
Still below 50, regional manufacturing remains in contraction. A deeper fall could drag on sentiment ahead of ISM next week.

Market Reactions to High-Impact Economic Events​

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U.S. Personal Income, Spending & Jobless Claims – July 31, 2025​


In June 2025, U.S. personal income rose by $71.4 billion, or 0.3%, while disposable personal income increased $61.0 billion, also 0.3%, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures climbed $69.9 billion, with $40.1 billion spent on services and $29.9 billion on goods. The personal saving rate stood at 4.5% as savings totaled $1.01 trillion. The PCE price index advanced 0.3% from the previous month and 2.6% from a year earlier, while the core PCE (excluding food and energy) rose 0.3% monthly and 2.8% annually. Separately, compensation costs for civilian workers increased 0.9% in the second quarter and 3.6% year over year, with wages and salaries up 1.0% in Q2 and 3.6% annually. Benefit costs rose 0.7% in Q2 and 3.5% over the year, with union workers seeing stronger wage gains than non-union counterparts. State and local government workers recorded a 4.0% rise in compensation, moderating from 4.9% the previous year. Meanwhile, Initial Jobless Claims edged up to 218K in the week ending July 26, slightly above the prior week’s 217K but below forecasts of 224K. The four-week average fell by 3.5K to 221K, the insured unemployment rate held steady at 1.3%, and Continuing Jobless Claims remained unchanged at 1.946 million after a minor revision.

GBPUSD CORE PCE Spending.jpg


Market Note: Geopolitical Risk & Earnings Season Volatility
Keep a close eye on geopolitical tensions — they can significantly impact market volatility, shift risk sentiment, and weigh on global equity performance.

Earnings season is a major catalyst for price action across global indices. While headline names like the US30, S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, FTSE 100, and DAX40 often take the spotlight, broader equity benchmarks worldwide can also react sharply. Market sentiment is shaped not only by results, but also by forward guidance and executive commentary — making this a key period for both opportunity and risk.

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.
 
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️ High-Impact Economic Calendar – August 31, 2025​

Timeline: GMT | Focused Currencies: CNY, NZD
01:30 GMT
China – NBS Manufacturing PMI
Forecast: 49.7 | Previous: 49.3
Currency: CNY
Market insight:
China’s state-driven manufacturing sector remains in contraction territory, though the slight improvement hints at stabilization. A surprise above 50 would signal expansion for the first time in months, potentially boosting the yuan and global risk sentiment.

Volatility note: Past releases have triggered ~601 pips of volatility in the 4 hours after the event, making this one of the most market-sensitive Chinese indicators.

22:45 GMT
New Zealand – Building Permits MoM
Forecast: 4.5% | Previous: -6.4%
Currency: NZD
Why it matters:
Building permits are a leading indicator of construction activity and housing demand. A rebound after last month’s slump suggests renewed momentum in the property sector, which could provide support for the kiwi dollar.

Volatility note: Historically, this release has produced ~21.2 pips of volatility in the 4 hours after the event, a much milder but still tradable move compared to other NZD data.


Market Note: Geopolitical Risk & Earnings Season Volatility
Keep a close eye on geopolitical tensions — they can significantly impact market volatility, shift risk sentiment, and weigh on global equity performance.

Earnings season is a major catalyst for price action across global indices. While headline names like the US30, S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, FTSE 100, and DAX40 often take the spotlight, broader equity benchmarks worldwide can also react sharply. Market sentiment is shaped not only by results, but also by forward guidance and executive commentary — making this a key period for both opportunity and risk.

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.
 

️High-Impact Economic Calendar – September 1, 2025​

Timeline: GMT | Focused Currencies: AUD, CNY, EUR
01:30 GMT
Australia – Building Permits MoM Prel
Forecast: -4.0% | Previous: 11.9%
Currency: AUD
Market insight:
Dwelling approvals are expected to fall sharply after June’s strong rebound. Because permits lead future construction activity, a weak reading could point to softer housing demand and weigh on the Australian dollar.

Volatility note: Past releases have generated ~24.4 pips of volatility in the 4 hours after the event, suggesting moderate but tradable AUD reactions.
01:45 GMT
China – Caixin Manufacturing PMI
Forecast: 50.0 | Previous: 49.5
Currency: CNY
⚡ Why it matters:
The Caixin PMI, focused on smaller and private manufacturers, offers a clearer view of China’s domestic demand than the official NBS survey. A print above 50 would mark a shift back into expansion, supporting the yuan and boosting global risk sentiment. Another miss below 50, however, could reignite concerns over ongoing weakness in China’s industrial sector.

Volatility note: Historically, this release has generated ~113.6 pips of volatility in the 4 hours after the event, making it one of the more market-sensitive Chinese indicators.
09:00 GMT
Euro Area – Unemployment Rate
Forecast: 6.2% | Previous: 6.2%
Currency: EUR
Market insight:
The eurozone jobless rate remains at historically low levels, underscoring labor market resilience despite broader growth headwinds. While a steady print is unlikely to spark a major reaction, any unexpected rise would raise concerns over weakening economic momentum across the bloc.

Volatility note: Past releases have generated ~40.0 pips of volatility in the 4 hours after the event, highlighting its potential to move EUR pairs when surprises occur.

Market Note: Geopolitical Risk & Earnings Season Volatility
Keep a close eye on geopolitical tensions — they can significantly impact market volatility, shift risk sentiment, and weigh on global equity performance.

Earnings season is a major catalyst for price action across global indices. While headline names like the US30, S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, FTSE 100, and DAX40 often take the spotlight, broader equity benchmarks worldwide can also react sharply. Market sentiment is shaped not only by results, but also by forward guidance and executive commentary — making this a key period for both opportunity and risk.

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.
 

️ High-Impact Economic Calendar – September 2, 2025​

Timeline: GMT | Focused Currencies: EUR, USD
09:00 GMT
Euro Area – Core Inflation Rate YoY Flash (August)
Forecast: 2.3% | Previous: 2.3%
Currency: EUR
Market insight:
Core inflation strips out volatile components and is the ECB’s preferred gauge for policy direction. A higher-than-expected print would raise bets on prolonged monetary tightening, supporting the euro.
09:00 GMT
Euro Area – Inflation Rate YoY Flash (August)
Forecast: 2.1% | Previous: 2.0%
Currency: EUR
Why it matters:
The headline CPI measures overall price trends across the eurozone. A continued rise above 2% would keep inflation concerns alive and may influence ECB rate guidance.
09:00 GMT
Euro Area – Inflation Rate MoM Flash (August)
Forecast: 0.2% | Previous: 0.0%
Currency: EUR
Quick take:
A positive monthly reading points to renewed cost pressures. Even small surprises here can sway expectations for ECB action.
14:00 GMT
United States – ISM Manufacturing PMI (August)
Forecast: 48.2 | Previous: 48.0
Currency: USD
⚡ What’s at stake:
U.S. manufacturing remains in contraction, though stability near 48 suggests a slower pace of decline. Traders will watch closely for movement in new orders and employment components. A rebound would lift USD, while further weakness may weigh on risk sentiment.

Market Reactions to High-Impact Economic Events​


U.S. Manufacturing PMI Slipped to 48 in July, Fifth Month of Contraction - 1 August, 2025​

In July 2025, U.S. manufacturing contracted for the fifth consecutive month as the ISM Manufacturing PMI slipped to 48.0, down from 49.0 in June. Among the five key sub-indexes, only production remained in growth territory at 51.4, while new orders (47.1), employment (43.4), inventories (48.9), and supplier deliveries (49.3) all pointed to contraction. Employment weakness was particularly notable, with companies prioritizing headcount reductions amid fragile demand. Prices paid stayed high at 64.8, though easing from June’s 69.7, reflecting continued upward pressure from tariffs and raw material costs such as steel and aluminum.

Export orders (46.1) and imports (47.6) also contracted, signaling weaker global trade flows, while backlogs (46.8) fell for the 34th straight month. Respondents highlighted ongoing uncertainty from U.S. tariff policies, slowing investment due to higher interest rates, and rising costs from supply chain adjustments. Notably, none of the six largest manufacturing industries reported growth, compared to four in June, with only a handful of smaller sectors (e.g., apparel, plastics, nonmetallic minerals) showing expansion. According to ISM, 79% of the sector’s GDP contracted in July, with 31% strongly contracting (PMI ≤45), underscoring broad-based weakness.

USDJPY.jpg


Market Note: Geopolitical Risk & Earnings Season Volatility
Keep a close eye on geopolitical tensions — they can significantly impact market volatility, shift risk sentiment, and weigh on global equity performance.

Earnings season is a major catalyst for price action across global indices. While headline names like the US30, S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, FTSE 100, and DAX40 often take the spotlight, broader equity benchmarks worldwide can also react sharply. Market sentiment is shaped not only by results, but also by forward guidance and executive commentary — making this a key period for both opportunity and risk.

​

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.
 

️ High-Impact Economic Calendar – September 4, 2025​

Timeline: GMT | Focused Currencies: AUD, CHF, EUR, USD, CAD, JPY

01:30 GMT
Australia – Household Spending YoY
Forecast: 5.0% | Previous: 4.8%
Currency: AUD
Market insight:
Household spending growth remains steady and is a key driver of Australia’s economic momentum. Stronger-than-expected data would reinforce confidence in domestic demand and support the Aussie dollar.

01:30 GMT
Australia – Balance of Trade
Forecast: A$5.25B | Previous: A$5.36B
Currency: AUD
Why it matters:
Australia’s trade surplus, fueled by resource exports like LNG, iron ore, and coal, remains a critical pillar for growth. A wider surplus would provide AUD support, while narrowing could pressure sentiment.

06:30 GMT
Switzerland – Inflation Rate YoY
Forecast: 0.2% | Previous: 0.2%
Switzerland – Inflation Rate MoM
Forecast: 0.0% | Previous: 0.0%
Currency: CHF
⚡ Market insight:
Swiss inflation remains subdued, well below levels seen globally. Persistent softness could keep the SNB dovish and weigh on CHF, though even small surprises often move the currency given Switzerland’s low inflation baseline.

07:00 GMT
Switzerland – Unemployment Rate
Forecast: 2.8% | Previous: 2.7%
Currency: CHF
Quick take:
The Swiss labor market is historically tight. A steady reading keeps CHF stable, but a surprise rise could signal cracks in domestic demand.

09:00 GMT
Euro Area – Retail Sales YoY
Forecast: 2.3% | Previous: 3.1%
Euro Area – Retail Sales MoM
Forecast: -0.1% | Previous: 0.3%
Currency: EUR
Market insight:
Eurozone retail activity is expected to slow, both annually and monthly. With consumption a critical driver for euro area growth, weak prints could weigh on the euro by reinforcing concerns about fading household demand.

12:15 GMT
United States – ADP Employment Change
Forecast: 65K | Previous: 104K
Currency: USD
⚠️ What’s at stake:
As a private payroll gauge, ADP often shapes expectations for Non-Farm Payrolls. A weaker figure could dampen USD sentiment ahead of Friday’s official labor report.

12:30 GMT
United States – Initial Jobless Claims
Forecast: 232K | Previous: 229K
Currency: USD
Market insight:
Weekly claims remain close to historic lows. Stability signals a resilient labor market, but a surprise rise could trigger concerns over slowing employment momentum.

12:30 GMT
Canada – Balance of Trade
Forecast: -C$6.1B | Previous: C$5.86B
Currency: CAD
Why it matters:
Canada’s trade balance has fluctuated between surpluses and deficits in recent years. A deeper-than-expected deficit may weigh on CAD, especially if energy export growth falters.

14:00 GMT
United States – ISM Services PMI
Forecast: 50.7 | Previous: 50.1
Currency: USD
⚡ Market insight:
Services make up ~90% of U.S. economic activity. A reading just above 50 signals marginal expansion. Traders will focus on employment and new orders components for clues on broader momentum.

23:30 GMT
Japan – Household Spending YoY
Forecast: 1.5% | Previous: 1.3%
Currency: JPY
Market insight:
Spending by Japanese households is slowly recovering. A stronger-than-expected figure would suggest improving domestic demand, a positive for yen sentiment and Japan’s fragile growth outlook.

How Markets Reacted to High-Impact Data​

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GBPUSD Reaction to ISM Services PMI Release – 5 August 2025


In July, U.S. services sector activity weakened as the ISM Services PMI edged down to 50.1 from June’s 50.8, still narrowly signaling expansion. The New Orders Index slipped by one point to 50.3, while the Business Activity Index dropped 1.6 points to 52.6, and the Inventory Sentiment Index declined 3.9 points to 53.2. Employment remained a drag, falling further into contraction at 46.4. ISM Services Chair Steve Miller noted that July’s figures reflected slow growth, with respondents citing seasonal and weather disruptions, while the continued weakness in hiring and faster expansion of prices highlighted underlying concerns for the sector’s outlook.

GBPUSD ISM SERVICES PMI.jpg


Market Note: Geopolitical Risk & Earnings Season Volatility
Keep a close eye on geopolitical tensions — they can significantly impact market volatility, shift risk sentiment, and weigh on global equity performance.

Earnings season is a major catalyst for price action across global indices. While headline names like the US30, S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, FTSE 100, and DAX40 often take the spotlight, broader equity benchmarks worldwide can also react sharply. Market sentiment is shaped not only by results, but also by forward guidance and executive commentary — making this a key period for both opportunity and risk.

​

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.
 

️ High-Impact Economic Calendar – September 5, 2025​

Timeline: GMT | Focused Currencies: GBP, EUR, USD, CAD
06:00 GMT
United Kingdom – Retail Sales YoY (July)
Forecast: 1.2% | Previous: 1.7%
Currency: GBP
Market insight:
UK consumer demand is losing pace, with annual sales growth cooling. A weaker print would reinforce concerns about slowing household spending and weigh on sterling.
06:00 GMT
United Kingdom – Retail Sales MoM (July)
Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: 0.9%
Currency: GBP
⚡ Quick take:
Monthly retail sales remain volatile, but a softer figure suggests households are tightening budgets under persistent inflation pressures.
06:00 GMT
Germany – Factory Orders MoM (July)
Forecast: 1.5% | Previous: -1.0%
Currency: EUR
Why it matters:
Factory orders are notoriously volatile but provide a forward-looking gauge of industrial activity. A rebound into positive territory would signal recovery in German manufacturing, lending support to the euro.
12:30 GMT
United States – Average Hourly Earnings MoM (August)
Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: 0.3%
Currency: USD
Market insight:
Steady wage growth keeps inflation pressures alive. Traders watch this closely as part of the Fed’s assessment of wage-price dynamics.
12:30 GMT
United States – Unemployment Rate (August)
Forecast: 4.2% | Previous: 4.2%
Currency: USD
⚠️ Quick take:
Unemployment remains historically low, but any unexpected rise could stoke concerns of softening labor conditions and weigh on the dollar.
12:30 GMT
United States – Non-Farm Payrolls (August)
Forecast: 75K | Previous: 73K
Currency: USD
⚡ What’s at stake:
The single most influential U.S. data release. A weak print would raise recession concerns and pressure the dollar, while a strong surprise could reinforce Fed hawkishness and boost USD across the board.
12:30 GMT
Canada – Unemployment Rate (August)
Forecast: 7.0% | Previous: 6.9%
Currency: CAD
Market insight:
A slight uptick is expected, reflecting a labor market under strain. A stronger rise could weigh heavily on the Canadian dollar.
12:30 GMT
Canada – Employment Change (August)
Forecast: 30K | Previous: -40.8K
Currency: CAD
Quick take:
After last month’s contraction, markets expect a modest rebound. Traders will look at both headline jobs and composition (full-time vs part-time) for CAD direction.
12:30 GMT
Canada – Full-Time Employment Change (August)
Forecast: 12K | Previous: -51K
Currency: CAD
Why it matters:
Full-time employment carries more weight than part-time. A solid rebound would provide CAD support even if headline numbers are mixed.
14:00 GMT
Canada – Ivey PMI s.a (August)
Forecast: 52.0 | Previous: 55.8
Currency: CAD
⚠️ Market insight:
The Ivey PMI offers a broad measure of Canadian business activity. A drop toward 50 suggests slowing demand, while resilience above 50 points to continued expansion.

How Economic Events Moved the Markets​


U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate & Average Hourly Earnings – August 1, 2025​

In early August 2025, the July U.S. jobs report showed nonfarm payrolls rising by just 73,000, well below expectations, with sharp downward revisions to May and June dragging the three-month average job gains to 35,000 — less than one-third of last year’s pace. Economists said the weakness confirmed that the economy was slowing sharply despite Q2 GDP growth of 3.3%, which was largely boosted by a reversal in import surges linked to President Trump’s tariff policies. Analysts warned that softer job growth, weaker consumer spending, and falling factory orders raised recession risks, while Goldman Sachs projected growth of only 1% in the second half. The disappointing labor data pushed markets to price in Fed rate cuts, though officials remained cautious, and political tensions rose as Trump dismissed the Bureau of Labor Statistics commissioner, calling the figures “rigged.” Despite the gloomy indicators, the White House insisted the economy was sound, but economists and investors noted heightened uncertainty and urged caution.
XAUUSD EMPLOYMENT.jpg



Market Note: Geopolitical Risk & Earnings Season Volatility
Keep a close eye on geopolitical tensions — they can significantly impact market volatility, shift risk sentiment, and weigh on global equity performance.

Earnings season is a major catalyst for price action across global indices. While headline names like the US30, S&P 500, NASDAQ 100, FTSE 100, and DAX40 often take the spotlight, broader equity benchmarks worldwide can also react sharply. Market sentiment is shaped not only by results, but also by forward guidance and executive commentary — making this a key period for both opportunity and risk.

​

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.
 

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⚡ Key Market Movers – September 9, 2025​

Timeline: GMT | Focused Currencies: AUD, EUR, USD
00:30 GMT
Australia – Westpac Consumer Confidence Change
Forecast: 1.0% | Previous: 5.7%
Currency: AUD
Market insight:
Sentiment among households is expected to cool after August’s strong rebound. Since consumer confidence influences spending decisions, a weak reading may weigh on the Aussie dollar.
01:30 GMT
Australia – NAB Business Confidence
Forecast: 8 | Previous: 7
Currency: AUD
Why it matters:
This survey captures firms’ outlook on trading, profitability, and hiring. A further uptick in sentiment suggests businesses see improving conditions, which could provide AUD support if sustained.
06:45 GMT
France – Industrial Production MoM
Forecast: -1.8% | Previous: 3.8%
Currency: EUR
⚠️ Quick take:
After a strong rebound in June, French industrial output is expected to contract again. A sharper-than-forecast decline would reinforce concerns about eurozone growth momentum, weighing on the euro.
14:00 GMT
United States – Non-Farm Payrolls Annual Revision
Forecast: -550K | Previous: -818K
Currency: USD
⚡ What’s at stake:
This revision adjusts historical labor market data, often reshaping how past job growth is interpreted. A deep downward adjustment would highlight labor weakness, potentially pressuring the dollar and Fed confidence, while an upward revision could soften recession concerns.

Market Note: Geopolitical Risk
Keep a close eye on geopolitical tensions — they can significantly impact market volatility, shift risk sentiment, and weigh on global equity performance.

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.
 

️ High-Impact Economic Calendar – September 10, 2025​

Timeline: GMT | Focused Currencies: CNY, USD, GBP, JPY
01:30 GMT
China – Inflation Rate MoM
Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: 0.4%
Currency: CNY
Quick take:
Monthly CPI growth is forecast to cool slightly after July’s uptick. Even small shifts here are closely watched, as they reveal the pulse of consumer demand and can ripple across global inflation sentiment.
01:30 GMT
China – Inflation Rate YoY
Forecast: -0.1% | Previous: 0.0%
Currency: CNY
⚠️ Market insight:
Flat price growth risks slipping into outright deflation. Persistent weakness would raise alarm bells on domestic demand and likely pressure Beijing to step up stimulus measures, a scenario that tends to weigh on the yuan.
01:30 GMT
China – Producer Price Index YoY
Forecast: -3.0% | Previous: -3.6%
Currency: CNY
Why it matters:
Producer price deflation is expected to ease slightly, signaling potential stabilization in industrial costs. A better-than-expected rebound could support the yuan and lift risk sentiment across Asia.
12:30 GMT
United States – PPI YoY
Forecast: 3.4% | Previous: 3.3%
United States – PPI MoM
Forecast: 0.4% | Previous: 0.9%
Currency: USD
⚡ Market insight:
Producer price growth is expected to moderate after July’s surge. Any upside surprise would keep inflation pressures alive, strengthening the dollar as traders push back expectations of Fed easing.
23:01 GMT
United Kingdom – RICS House Price Balance
Forecast: -13% | Previous: -13%
Currency: GBP
Why it matters:
The UK housing market remains stuck in decline, with surveyors uniformly reporting falling prices. Continued weakness underscores fragile household sentiment and could weigh further on sterling.
23:50 GMT
Japan – PPI MoM
Forecast: 0.1% | Previous: 0.2%
Japan – PPI YoY
Forecast: 2.8% | Previous: 2.6%
Currency: JPY
Quick take:
Producer prices are edging higher, hinting at persistent pipeline pressures. If this trend continues, it could filter into consumer inflation and bolster expectations that the BOJ may tighten policy further, supporting the yen.

July’s U.S. inflation data showed a sharp 0.9% jump in producer prices, the largest since March 2022, fueling concerns that tariff-driven costs were feeding into the broader economy. While consumer inflation had appeared relatively contained, widespread PPI increases pointed to mounting price pressures that complicated the Fed’s path and cast doubt on a September rate cut. At the same time, the Trump administration expanded Section 232 tariffs on steel, aluminum, autos, and copper, measures officially framed as national security tools but increasingly used as bargaining chips in trade policy.

In labor markets, jobless claims for the week ending August 9 fell by 3,000 to 224,000, with the prior week revised up slightly. The four-week moving average ticked higher to 221,750, while the insured unemployment rate remained at 1.3%. Continuing claims dropped by 15,000 to 1.95 million, suggesting labor conditions remained stable despite the inflation shock.

GBPUSD PPI & Labour.jpg



Market Note: Geopolitical Risk
Heightened geopolitical tensions remain a key source of uncertainty for markets. Such developments can amplify volatility, alter risk appetite, and exert pressure on global equities, while also driving flows into safe-haven assets.

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.
 

️ High-Impact Economic Calendar – September 11, 2025​

Timeline: GMT | Focused Currencies: EUR, USD
12:15 GMT
Euro Area – ECB Interest Rate Decision
Forecast: 2.15% | Previous: 2.15%
Currency: EUR
Market insight:
The ECB is expected to keep rates steady, but markets will parse the tone for clues on how long restrictive policy will remain. Even an unchanged decision can spark volatility if the statement hints at a policy shift.

12:15 GMT
Euro Area – ECB Deposit Facility Rate
Forecast: 2.00% | Previous: 2.00%
Currency: EUR
Quick take:
The deposit rate sets the floor for overnight borrowing costs. Steady levels suggest a cautious ECB, but any change would strongly impact euro funding conditions.
12:30 GMT
United States – Core Inflation Rate YoY
Forecast: 3.1% | Previous: 3.1%
Currency: USD
⚡ Why it matters:
Core inflation strips out food and energy, offering the clearest view of underlying price trends. If it runs hotter than expected, it may revive Fed hawkishness and boost the dollar.

12:30 GMT
United States – Inflation Rate YoY
Forecast: 2.8% | Previous: 2.7%
Currency: USD
Market insight:
This is the overall Consumer Price Index (often called headline CPI), which includes all major spending categories such as food and energy. It has been edging higher, led by housing and services costs, and a stronger-than-expected print would signal sticky inflation — limiting the Fed’s room to cut rates and likely boosting the dollar.

12:30 GMT
United States – Inflation Rate MoM
Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: 0.2%
Currency: USD
Quick take:
Month-to-month changes provide the most immediate signal of inflation momentum. Stronger prints could trigger sharp USD moves as traders adjust Fed rate expectations.

12:30 GMT
United States – Core Inflation Rate MoM
Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: 0.3%
Currency: USD
Why traders care:
Stable but elevated core inflation would highlight persistent price pressures, shaping Fed policy into year-end.

12:30 GMT
United States – Initial Jobless Claims
Forecast: 240K | Previous: 237K
Currency: USD
⚠️ Market insight:
Jobless claims remain near cycle lows, signaling labor market resilience. Any unexpected spike, however, could weigh on the dollar as growth concerns rise.
12:45 GMT
Euro Area – ECB Press Conference
Currency: EUR
What’s at stake:
The press conference often drives bigger moves than the decision itself. Traders will watch Lagarde’s remarks for signals on growth risks, inflation persistence, and timing of future policy changes. Hawkish hints lift the euro, dovish tones weigh on it.

✅ This day features a double punch: ECB policy decisions + U.S. CPI—a combination that can move both EUR and USD pairs sharply. Expect elevated volatility around 12:15–12:45 GMT.

How Markets React to Critical Data​

​

U.S. CPI Release – August 12, 2025​

U.S. consumer prices rose moderately in July 2025, with the CPI increasing 0.2% on the month and 2.7% year-on-year, while core inflation posted its biggest gain in six months at 0.3%, lifting the annual core rate to 3.1%. The data, which came after weak job growth and sharp payroll revisions, fueled expectations of a possible Fed rate cut in September, though the central bank had held rates steady at 4.25%-4.50% in July. The report was overshadowed by growing concerns over data quality as the Bureau of Labor Statistics, hit by budget cuts and staffing reductions, suspended CPI data collection in several areas, forcing greater reliance on imputations that economists warned could add volatility. These issues were compounded by President Trump’s dismissal of BLS chief Erika McEntarfer earlier in the month amid political scrutiny of labor and inflation reporting.

GBPUSD Inflation US.jpg


Market Note: Geopolitical Risk
Geopolitical tensions often reshape market dynamics, fueling volatility, altering risk sentiment, and putting pressure on global equities. Developments over weekends can heighten uncertainty, with global events sometimes leading to sharp gaps when markets reopen


Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.
 

️ High-Impact Economic Calendar – September 12, 2025​

Timeline: GMT | Focused Currencies: GBP, CAD, USD

06:00 GMT
United Kingdom – GDP Month-on-Month
Forecast: 0.1% | Previous: 0.4%
Currency: GBP
Market insight:
GDP captures the monthly change in the value of goods and services produced. Slowing growth could reinforce concerns about weak momentum in the UK economy, pressuring the pound.

06:00 GMT
United Kingdom – Industrial Production Month-on-Month
Forecast: -0.1% | Previous: 0.7%
Currency: GBP
Quick take:
Industrial production represents about 20% of UK GDP, with manufacturing as the largest contributor. A contraction would raise red flags about economic resilience, particularly as oil, gas, and transport sectors weigh on output.

12:30 GMT
Canada – Building Permits Month-on-Month
Forecast: 4.2% | Previous: -9.0%
Currency: CAD
⚡ Why it matters:
Building permits provide an early signal of construction and housing market trends. A strong rebound after last month’s steep drop could ease fears of slowdown and lend support to the Canadian dollar.

14:00 GMT
United States – Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Preliminary)
Forecast: 57.0 | Previous: 58.2
Currency: USD
Market insight:
Consumer sentiment reflects household views on financial conditions and the economic outlook. Confidence slipping further would point to cautious spending, weighing on growth prospects and potentially the dollar.

✅ Friday’s data spotlight shines on the UK with GDP and industrial output at the open, followed by Canada’s construction gauge and U.S. consumer sentiment. Expect volatility in GBP crosses early, with CAD and USD in focus as North America takes over.

Market Reactions to High-Impact Economic Events​


U.S. Michigan Release – Aug 15, 2025​

U.S. consumer sentiment unexpectedly declined in August, falling to 58.6 from 61.7 in July, the University of Michigan reported. The drop, the first since April, came as inflation expectations worsened, with consumers anticipating prices to rise 4.9% over the next year and 3.9% over the next five to 10 years. Survey director Joanne Hsu said concerns about high prices and rising unemployment had resurfaced, with 62% of respondents expecting joblessness to increase. The gauge of buying conditions for durable goods fell to a one-year low, while a separate survey showed 58% of consumers planned to cut spending this year on items such as cars, household goods, and dining out. The current conditions index dropped to 60.9, and the expectations index slipped to 57.2, both weaker than economists forecast, highlighting growing consumer caution despite July’s rise in retail sales.

USDJPY UoM.jpg​




Market Note: Geopolitical Risk
Geopolitical tensions often reshape market dynamics, fueling volatility, altering risk sentiment, and putting pressure on global equities. Developments over weekends can heighten uncertainty, with global events sometimes leading to sharp gaps when markets reopen

Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only and is not intended as trading or financial advice. This analysis seeks to enhance your understanding of market behavior and highlight potential opportunities that may have existed, offering insights into how the market operates and the possibilities it may present.
 

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