myRandom
- Thread starter Enivid
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- expert advisor metatrader mt4
Why? MetaTrader 5 version works nicely with FIFO. MT4 version may try to open orders in different directions, but if your broker adheres to NFA regulations, they will automatically close the position in case of opening a new one in an opposite direction.
optimization
I ran optimizing on Finfx ecn acct mt4. Result is sl=40 & tp=300 and bar#=68 as result of looking for below 13% dd. 2000 bars = 4 mo 1hr gbpjpy.
Performance is $2000 profit on $2200 with 11% dd for 9 winning trades and 20 losers.
Anotherwords for every two 40 pip loser there is a 300 pip winner, not bad so I'm risking using on my real$ ecn acct. One section of test result has 5 losers in a row as worst case, even then the winner afterwards is ahead of the bad streak by 100 pips.
Tester is set to "open bar only" type testing. Often this misses tick performance that occurs in real life but in examining closely the results tab and where SL's got hit on playback chart bars its comforting seeing all ohlc of bars are taken into account by tester and it figures out each trade as if hitting sl's or tp's.
So wish me luck folks on real ecn acct.
Jerry
I ran optimizing on Finfx ecn acct mt4. Result is sl=40 & tp=300 and bar#=68 as result of looking for below 13% dd. 2000 bars = 4 mo 1hr gbpjpy.
Performance is $2000 profit on $2200 with 11% dd for 9 winning trades and 20 losers.
Anotherwords for every two 40 pip loser there is a 300 pip winner, not bad so I'm risking using on my real$ ecn acct. One section of test result has 5 losers in a row as worst case, even then the winner afterwards is ahead of the bad streak by 100 pips.
Tester is set to "open bar only" type testing. Often this misses tick performance that occurs in real life but in examining closely the results tab and where SL's got hit on playback chart bars its comforting seeing all ohlc of bars are taken into account by tester and it figures out each trade as if hitting sl's or tp's.
So wish me luck folks on real ecn acct.
Jerry
If you optimizing all the parameters to get such results on some past period, I strongly suggest against running it on real account. You've overoptimized it for the past period and the chances are that it won't work so well in forward-testing.
Hello there,
Thankyou, this is very interesting.
I have been trading Forex for about an year now, and I can say that most of the time the Market is random due to News events, natural disasters, wars etc...
But the market can only go in 3 directions:
1)Ranging
2)Up
3)Down
When it goes Up or Down, it doesn't go in a straight line, but only in Fibonacci retracements. This is the only pattern that I see in Forex.
So the fact that you use a random entry period, is a very good idea to work with the Fib tracements.
Anyhow, with the myRandom ea suing default settings., if it opens 5 trades a month, there is only 1/6 chances 16% of chance you can loose, and 84% of chance of making a profit- ranging from small profits to large profits.
Its all about probability.
There's so many Eas out there that try to trade according to some pattern and most of them don't even reach 90% success rate- and there is no gurantee that is will continue to work in future market conditions. This is worry- better to change something that is random, which will work in all market conditions.
Like throwing a dice, how many times will 6 come up?
or 1 come up?
Thanks alot
Tony
Thankyou, this is very interesting.
I have been trading Forex for about an year now, and I can say that most of the time the Market is random due to News events, natural disasters, wars etc...
But the market can only go in 3 directions:
1)Ranging
2)Up
3)Down
When it goes Up or Down, it doesn't go in a straight line, but only in Fibonacci retracements. This is the only pattern that I see in Forex.
So the fact that you use a random entry period, is a very good idea to work with the Fib tracements.
Anyhow, with the myRandom ea suing default settings., if it opens 5 trades a month, there is only 1/6 chances 16% of chance you can loose, and 84% of chance of making a profit- ranging from small profits to large profits.
Its all about probability.
There's so many Eas out there that try to trade according to some pattern and most of them don't even reach 90% success rate- and there is no gurantee that is will continue to work in future market conditions. This is worry- better to change something that is random, which will work in all market conditions.
Like throwing a dice, how many times will 6 come up?
or 1 come up?
Thanks alot
Tony
More random,the better.
The more random it is, within a given boundaries, the better it is I think.
How about adding randomness to Tp, Sl and RandomEntry period?
The user still sets these parameters, but random no generator would allow to generate a value within +- 30pips of the value?
E.g. Tp = 600 pips, random generator within +-30pips range = -21,
hence Tp this time will be 579pips.
Also have a look at this comment from:
http://forum.mql4.com/36418/page2#387446
*******************************************************
I use random entry/exit strategy EA's to capture a lot of information regarding the market dynamics. It speaks to entitlement, and the data itself are useful when applying statistical analysis of the market.
In my case I use "time" as my indicator. A position is taken at a random time, held open for a random amount of time, and then closed at a random time. The resultant P/L as well as MAE/MFE are tallied. Rinse and repeat on years of historical data. It's all MonteCarlo driven, then I do it a few thousands of times, pool the results, apply statistics.
With those results in hand I then have a benchmark by which I can assess the performance of any EA strategy I might consider entertaining. If it can't outperform the random strategy (and P/L is not the metric to optimize for in backtesting) then its worthless.
Oh and one lesson learned in the creation of my random entry/exit EA is that one person's idea of "random" is another person's definition of "biased". You should have some expectation of what a truly random strategy ought to produce in terms of results.
In my case the results set me back because of their true simplicity:
The more random it is, within a given boundaries, the better it is I think.
How about adding randomness to Tp, Sl and RandomEntry period?
The user still sets these parameters, but random no generator would allow to generate a value within +- 30pips of the value?
E.g. Tp = 600 pips, random generator within +-30pips range = -21,
hence Tp this time will be 579pips.
Also have a look at this comment from:
http://forum.mql4.com/36418/page2#387446
*******************************************************
I use random entry/exit strategy EA's to capture a lot of information regarding the market dynamics. It speaks to entitlement, and the data itself are useful when applying statistical analysis of the market.
In my case I use "time" as my indicator. A position is taken at a random time, held open for a random amount of time, and then closed at a random time. The resultant P/L as well as MAE/MFE are tallied. Rinse and repeat on years of historical data. It's all MonteCarlo driven, then I do it a few thousands of times, pool the results, apply statistics.
With those results in hand I then have a benchmark by which I can assess the performance of any EA strategy I might consider entertaining. If it can't outperform the random strategy (and P/L is not the metric to optimize for in backtesting) then its worthless.
Oh and one lesson learned in the creation of my random entry/exit EA is that one person's idea of "random" is another person's definition of "biased". You should have some expectation of what a truly random strategy ought to produce in terms of results.
In my case the results set me back because of their true simplicity:
Yes, you can't have an EA setting SL and TP in position open order. Set stop-loss and take-profit in the EA to 0 and then apply SL and TP to open positions.
Hi, I've getting some incredible results with Eur/Gbp. It has outperformed other Eas that I'm testing.
Winning symbols
****************************************************************
Eur/Gbp
Take profit = 160, Random Entry = 80, Stop loss = 90,
From Nov 21st to Dec 23 in just one month,
it's made Pips 380.6, Dollars $1327.7, Won 55% 18 trades, Lost 45% 15 trades
CURRENTLY OPEN TRADES, 480 PIPS IN PROFIT, $755
Gbp/Usd
Take profit = 600, Random Entry = 80, Stop loss = 90,
From Nov 25th to Dec 23rd,
Pips = -331, Dollars = 387, Won 43% 21 trades, LOst 57% 28 trades
****************************************************************
Loosing symbols
Nok/Sek-
Take profit = 300, Random Entry = 40, Stop loss = 45,
From Dec 6th to Dec 23
Pips = -36, Dollars = -$52, Won 0%, Lost 100% 8 trades
Eur/Nzd
Take profit = 150, Random Entry = 80, Stop loss = 70,
From Nov 29th to Dec
Pips = -490, Dollars = -376, Won 0%, Lost 100% 7 trades
Eur/Usd
Take profit = 300, Random Entry = 80, Stop loss = 90,
From Nov 25th to Dec 23rd,
Pips = -707, Dollars = -1508, Won 39% 16 trades, LOst 61% 25 trades
*****************************************************************
If Eur/Gbp has been winning in the last month, do you think its possible that this success will continue? What do you think is the reason why Eur/Gbp works better than other pairs? Is it because Eur/Gbp is ranging more than other pairs?
Also, is it possible to add a mony management system to this? so that when the first lot of trades have finished, e.g. max no of open trades = 4, after the 4th trades is opened, the next 4 lot of trades will increase in lot size.
Winning symbols
****************************************************************
Eur/Gbp
Take profit = 160, Random Entry = 80, Stop loss = 90,
From Nov 21st to Dec 23 in just one month,
it's made Pips 380.6, Dollars $1327.7, Won 55% 18 trades, Lost 45% 15 trades
CURRENTLY OPEN TRADES, 480 PIPS IN PROFIT, $755
Gbp/Usd
Take profit = 600, Random Entry = 80, Stop loss = 90,
From Nov 25th to Dec 23rd,
Pips = -331, Dollars = 387, Won 43% 21 trades, LOst 57% 28 trades
****************************************************************
Loosing symbols
Nok/Sek-
Take profit = 300, Random Entry = 40, Stop loss = 45,
From Dec 6th to Dec 23
Pips = -36, Dollars = -$52, Won 0%, Lost 100% 8 trades
Eur/Nzd
Take profit = 150, Random Entry = 80, Stop loss = 70,
From Nov 29th to Dec
Pips = -490, Dollars = -376, Won 0%, Lost 100% 7 trades
Eur/Usd
Take profit = 300, Random Entry = 80, Stop loss = 90,
From Nov 25th to Dec 23rd,
Pips = -707, Dollars = -1508, Won 39% 16 trades, LOst 61% 25 trades
*****************************************************************
If Eur/Gbp has been winning in the last month, do you think its possible that this success will continue? What do you think is the reason why Eur/Gbp works better than other pairs? Is it because Eur/Gbp is ranging more than other pairs?
Also, is it possible to add a mony management system to this? so that when the first lot of trades have finished, e.g. max no of open trades = 4, after the 4th trades is opened, the next 4 lot of trades will increase in lot size.
Last edited:
Alas, I believe the EUR/GBP success is just a result of luck. Next month, or perhaps the month after the next one, you'll see EUR/GBP losses and some other pair's profits.
Alas... I see.
So, when should be the best to use this Ea, or not use this Ea?
Or what's the best way to use this Ea? multiple currencies? but then what is the gurantee that it will make money?
Or should I just use it any 4 pairs that's not correlated to diversify the risks, and just let run, and hoping that it will make a profit?
So, when should be the best to use this Ea, or not use this Ea?
Or what's the best way to use this Ea? multiple currencies? but then what is the gurantee that it will make money?
Or should I just use it any 4 pairs that's not correlated to diversify the risks, and just let run, and hoping that it will make a profit?
I believe that this option + some sound money management strategy should do the thing. But I wouldn't risk too much money on this trading method.
