Market news and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: the long-awaited "V-Top" pattern
4 May 2016
Sergey Logachev

The price faced a resistance at 1.1599, so we've got a “V-Top” pattern on this line. The market started to decline afterwards and finally reached a support at 1.1494. It’s likely that the pair is going to achieve a support at 1.1431 in the short term. If a pullback appears subsequently, there'll be a chance for an upward correction.

We’ve got a “V-Top” pattern on the one-hour chart as well, which brought bears into the market. The price is likely going to rise during the day, but it’ll probably be just a small correction. So, we should keep an eye on a resistance at 1.1453 – 1.1437 as the possible next bearish target.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8843

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for May 5


US dollar recovered on more hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve’s members. San Francisco Fed President John Williams claimed he could vote for an interest rate hike in June if the economy keeps improving. In addition, according to Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart, two rate hikes this year were certainly possible. However, ADP employment report showed that the number of employed people in the United States rose by only 156K in April vs. 205K expected.

Risk assets also suffered as crude oil was under pressure. the American Petroleum Institute reported on Tuesday that US inventories increased last week by 1.3 million barrels.

EUR/USD is holding above support at 1.1460 after it formed spike up to 1.1614 on Tuesday, but failed to stay at these maximums. Euro area’s retail sales contracted by 0.5% in March, while an increase by 0.1% was expected. On Thursday German and French banks will be on holiday. Next support is at 1.1415 and 1.1350. The pair has to rise above 1.1550 in order for the bulls to feel powerful again. Note that there’s declining 100-week MA at 1.1638, and it should create significant resistance.

GBP/USD returned down to 1.4500. British manufacturing unexpectedly fell in April for the first time in 3 years. The nation’s construction PMI also came lower than expected (52.0 vs. 54.1). In addition, ICM poll, which was weighted to take into account the likelihood of respondents taking part in the vote, showed that 45% of voters were in favor of Brexit, while 44% were against it. The pound may suffer more if services PMI due at 08:30 GMT on Thursday disappoints. Below 1.4500 we’ll focus on the next big figure at 1.4400/1.4388 (100-day MA) and 1.4330. Resistance is at 1.4550 and 1.4630.

USD/JPY tried to recover after falling as low as to 105.55 on Tuesday. The lack of monetary stimulus from the Bank of Japan last week is the biggest bearish factor the pair. Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso said on Tuesday that the government is monitoring speculative foreign-exchange trades and will act if it’s necessary. On Thursday liquidity will be lower because of a bank holiday in Japan, so we may see some volatile moves. The pair will likely remain under bearish pressure. Support is at 105.00 (200-day MA) ahead of 103.70 (may 2013 high). Resistance is at 107.50 and 108.25 ahead of 110.50.

AUD/USD was little changed in the 0.7480 area where it fell from levels above 0.7700 on Tuesday. The Reserve Bank of Australia cut interest rate from 2.00% to 1.75%. There wasn’t much of the forward guidance in the central bank’s accompanying statement – we may get more insight about that from the RBA’s quarterly monetary policy statement, which is due on Friday. The RBA’s decision to act is probably connected with the slowdown in Australian inflation. Resistance lies at 0.7560 and 0.7600. Decline below 0.7450 will open the way down to 0.7410. Australia is due to release retail sales and trade balance figures at 01:30 GMT on Thursday, an improvement in data is expected.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8851

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: bulls are pressed down by the "V-Top"
5 May 2016, 06:28

There's a “V-Top” at the last high, which brought bears into the market. Therefore, the price faced a support at 1.1464, so currently we’ve got a flat in progress. The market is likely going to reach a support at 1.1431 – 1.1398 subsequently. If we see a pullback from this area, an upward movement becomes possible.

As we can see on the one-hour chart, the pair has been entered into a consolidation phase since a support at 1.1464 was achieved. So, the price is probably going to reach a resistance at 1.1529 during the day. Considering a possible pullback from this level, we should keep an eye on a support at 1.1437 – 1.1413 as the next feasible bearish target.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8854

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBP/USD: bears are in the game again
5 May 2016

The last bullish rally has been stopped by a “Rising Wedge” pattern, so bears returned into the market. The price faced a support at 1.4458 afterwards, but it’s likely that the pair is going to reach the next support at 1.4423 in the short term. If so, there’ll be a chance to see an upward correction.

The price has found a support at 1.4472, so we’ve got a local rise in progress. Therefore, if bulls successfully gets a resistance at 1.4573 and we see a pullback from this level subsequently, a decline towards a support at 1.4402 is going to be on the table.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8855

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Can I make a living with Forex trading?
5 May 2016

In life we face daily challenges that allow us to grow as people, but all this depends on the way how we face them, because if we do not have enough wisdom, these challenges would affect us in a negative way.

Fortunately, with the advancement of technology and mass diffusion of knowledge through the internet, we were able to meet with such an extremely profitable business, as Forex trading. However, like any business, it takes a lot of study to learn to master Forex trading, and even more if you want this to become your full-time business and make a living of it.

When we were kids, we went to school with the purpose of learning to read, write, do maths and many other basic functions that allow us to acquire more knowledge for the future, so we can deal with the life’s challenges successfully.

The example above is similar to learning Forex trading as a business, because we have to go through a series of processes that allow us to understand the complex, but profitable world of Foreign Exchange.

A common mistake that many beginners in Forex trading make is that they want to make money quickly, which makes them lose all their money quickly, because they do not have enough patience to learn, and what’s especially the beginners, don’t learn to master stress while trading in the Forex market.

Therefore, we will need to devote a lot of time to learning this business, but above all, we would have to know how to manage our investor’s psychology and believe that the Forex market is not a matter of luck, such as gambling. If you think that Forex trading is like gambling, then it is highly likely you’ll fail in this business and eventually lose all the money you've invested in a trading account.

There is no excuse to say that there is not enough information about how to master the techniques that allow us to generate profits with Forex trading, because thanks to the progressive democratization of information through the Internet we can find valuable sources of information about the Forex market.

At FX BAZOOKA, for example, you can find daily market analysis and news, which represent the necessary tools for growing in this profitable business.

Another important aspect to consider when trying to make money in Forex trading is managing a proper risk in each trade. If you believe that in this business you can quickly earn thousands of dollar with small investment, you're quite wrong and those expectations are what lead many people to failure in this business, because traders of that kind tend to overleverage their accounts.

Therefore, it is essential that you create a good risk management plan for your money, in order not to risk much on each trade. This will allow to you to protect your trading account from any unexpected event in the Forex market.

After all, you’re probably still asking yourself: can I make a living with Forex trading? The answer is: of course you can! But it is not as easy as many can make you believe.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8858

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

A Strategy to Trade on Nonfarm Payrolls
5 May 2016

US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) is an economic indicator released once a month, usually on the first Friday of the month. NFP shows the change in number of employed people in the United States during the previous month. The release usually causes strong movements in all currency pairs containing US dollar.

Right ahead of the NFP the market usually either becomes flat or starts swinging in different directions. Ahead of the release set two pending orders in opposite directions (buy and sell). The orders should be set at least 20 pips away from the current price, so that you could avoid false market entry. If the price goes up and opens the buy order, you will be in long position. If the price goes down and opens sell order, you will be in short position.

Set stop loss orders around the current price, that is at least 20 pips away from the entry points. Take profit orders should be 60 pips away from the entry points. In this case the risk/reward ratio will be 1:3.

In the example below there are the following positions ahead of NFP:

1. BUY STOP 1.2625, Take Profit 1.2685, Stop Loss 1.2605

2. SELL STOP 1.2585, Take Profit 1.2525, Stop Loss 1.2605

If one order is activated, you should close another one.

If the price is confidently moving in one of directions, you may move you stop loss order to breakeven. However, do this at least after 15 minutes from the release. Remember that the volatility of the currency pair depends on many factors and changes in time, so to choose the amount of pips to set your entry and exit orders correctly you should study the pair’s dynamics in the recent days and weeks.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8859

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: bears have broken the "Window"
5 May 2016

There's a downward correction in progress. Previously, a “Harami”, a “Three Black Crows” and a “Three Methods” were formed at the last top. So, the market is likely going to reach the nearest support line. As we can see on the Daily chart, a “Harami” and a “Shooting Star” have been confirmed. Therefore, today’s candle is probably going to be black.

The price has broken the nearest “Window”. If the market finds a lodgement under it, there’ll be nothing to stop bears on the way towards the next support line, which can bring a reversal bullish pattern.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8860

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

USD/JPY: flat between "Hammer" and "Harami"
5 May 2016

There're an “Engulfing” and a “Three White Soldiers” at the last low. We’ve got a “Three Methods”, which points to a possibility that the current rise can be continued. At the same time, there's a “Window”, which obviously can act as a resistance. So, it’s likely that the pair is going to form a local downward correction during the day. However, bulls will likely try to reach the next “Window” afterwards. As we can see on the Daily chart, there’s a “Hammer” and an “Inverted Hammer”, which both have been confirmed. So, today’s candle is likely going to be bullish.

The last local downward correction was finally ended by the “Hammer” candle. So, the market is likely going to reach the 89 Moving Average. If bulls breaks this line, the next target will be on the nearest “Window".

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8861

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

USD/CHF reversed from pivotal support level 0.9500
5 May 2016
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-USD/CHF reversed from pivotal support level 0.9500
-Next buytarget - 0.9700

USD/CHF continues to rise – following the earlier upward reversal from the pivotal support level 0.9500 (which reversed the previous waves (iv) and 1, as can be seen from the daily USD/CHF chart below). The support zone near the support level 0.9500 was strengthened by the lower daily Bollinger Band. The upward reversal from this support level 0.9500 created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Hammer.

With the clear bullish divergence visible on the daily RSI indicator - USD/CHF can be expected to rise further to the next buy target at the resistance level 0.9640, the breakout of which can lead to further gains toward 0.9700.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8862

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD reversed from strong resistance level 1.1600
5 May 2016
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-EUR/USD reversed from strong resistance level 1.1600
-Next sell target - 1.1400

EUR/USD continues to fall – after the earlier sharp downward reversal from the strong resistance level 1.1600 (which also previously reversed the price sharply in last October, as can be seen below). The resistance zone near the resistance level 1.1600 was strengthened by the upper daily Bollinger Band and by the upper resistance trendline of the daily up channel from December. The downward reversal from 1.1600 created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Falling Star.

Given the strength of the resistance level 1.1600 - EUR/USD is likely to fall further toward the next sell target at the support level 1.1400.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8863

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

DAX falling inside intermediate impulse wave (3)
5 May 2016
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-DAX falling inside intermediate impulse wave (3)
-Next sell target - 9500.00

DAX continues to fall inside the 3rd intermediate impulse wave (3) – which started earlier – when the index reversed down from the resistance zone lying between the resistance level 10400.00, upper daily Bollinger Band, 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp downward impulse wave (1) from November and the upper resistance trendline of the daily up channel from February.

The index is currently trading near the support trendline of the aforementioned up channel. If the price breaks this support trendline – DAX can then fall to the next sell target at the support level 9500.00 (low of the previous wave B).

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8864

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: "Flag" as a sign to the coming new low
6 May 2016

Yesterday the price reached a support at 1.1398, which successfully stopped bears for a while. However, the market is likely going to get the 89 Moving Average in the short term. If a pullback from this line happens, there'll be a chance to see a growth towards a resistance at 1.1453 – 1.1464.

We've got a “Flag” on the one-hour chart, so the pair is likely going to achieve the next support near the up-trend’s line. If bears be stopped here, bulls will probably try to catch a resistance at 1.1437.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8873

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBP/USD: bears extract everything from the Wedge
6 May 2016

The price faced a support at 1.4458, so bulls are trying to show us a local correction. However, the market is likely going to decline towards a support at 1.4343 – 1.4305 subsequently. If a pullback from this area happens, there’ll be a chance for an upward movement.

As we can see on the one-hour chart, there’s a flat in progress under the Moving Average lines. The pair is probably going to reach a support at 1.4343 in the short term.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8874

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Large banks: expectations for NFP
6 May 2016
Consensus forecast for NFP: 203K (Previous: 215K)

Consensus forecast for unemployment rate: 5.5% (Previous: 5.0%)

Consensus forecast for NFP: 0.3% (Previous: 0.3%)

Bank of America: Nonfarm payrolls will show a good gain of 200K, unemployment rate will hold at 5%, although there’s risk that it will increase because of the higher participation rate. Average hourly earnings will rise by only 0.2% on the monthly basis. Buy US dollar ahead of the NFP release as the labor market stability will be enough for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rate in June.

Barclays: NFP will rise by 250K, while unemployment rate will decline to 4.9% and average hourly earnings rise by 0.3%.

Credit Agricole: NFP will add 190K with unemployment rate staying at 5.0%. As global financial conditions, the Fed will adopt a more optimistic tone.

SEB: NFP will show 180K gain,unemployment rate should decrease to 4.9% and average hourly earnings rise by 0.3%.

Deutsche Bank: After ADP employment report for April disappointed, the market is pricing in a reading around 175K. If NFP is closer to 200k, this will be mildly positive for the US dollar. In this case consider buying US versus Australian and Canadian dollars. If NFP is lower, in 100-125K range, the expectations of the Fed’s rate hike will decline. Consider selling USD/JPY, if it happens. NFP reading below 100K will make USD decline against JPY, CHF and probably USD, but commodity currencies will also fall because of negative risk sentiment.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8875

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: "Inverted Hammer" points to a correction
6 May 2016

We’ve got an “Inverted Hammer” on the last support line, which has been confirmed enough. So, the pair is likely going to reach the nearest support line and continue falling down afterwards. As we can see on the Daily chart, there’s no any reversal patterns so far, which means bears will probably try to return into the market soon.

There’s a strong support, which brought some reversal patterns such a “High Wave”, a “Harami” and an “Engulfing”. Therefore, it’s likely to see an achievement the 55 Moving Average as well as the nearest “Window”.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8876

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBP/USD: forecast for May 9-15
6 May 2016
Kira Iukhtenko

It has been another volatile week for the British pound. GBP/USD pushed to 1.4760 and retraced lower from this area. There is a strong resistance clustered at these levels: trend line, connecting the late-2015 peaks. Technically, we still see potential for a stronger move to 1.5000/5200 in the nearest future, so a break above 1.4760 would justify new short-term GBP longs. We stay medium-term bullish above 1.4400. This outlook will be negated in case if the cable slips below 1.4400.

Remember that the forthcoming UK referendum (June 23) poses an imminent risk to the upbeat view on the sterling. The risk of Great Britain leaving the EU hasn’t been priced in yet. European politicians are now doing their best to calm the “leave” mood down, but market uncertainty is still expected to increase by the end of May. That’s why we find a break above 1.5200 very unlikely this year, so get ready to sell the pound on rallies to these levels – if the rallies happen.

As for the economic calendar, watch the UK manufacturing production on Wednesday. On Thursday, don’t miss the Bank of England meeting and inflation report. The UK central bank is now consumed with preparing contingency plans for the potential Brexit, so the question of rate hike is off the table these days. Pay attention to the Marc Carney’s comments on the issue – he could point to high risks associated with the EU referendum.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8880

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: forecast for May 9-15

By Elizabeth Belugina

During the past week EUR/USD rose to 9-month high at 1.1614 before correcting down.

Strong euro is very unwelcome by the European Central Bank as it affects the region’s already low inflation and weak economic growth. Euro area’s flash GDP for Q1 is due next Friday. The European Commission cut its forecast for euro zone growth this year from 1.7% to 1.6%. Higher euro is bad for the European exports and stocks. So far, the latest increases in the ECB’s huge monetary stimulus didn’t drive the single currency down. However, there are no bullish drivers for the euro from the euro area, and the risk of more action from the ECB to weaken the currency should limit the euro’s advance. There’s also an opinion that investors from outside of Europe will sell their European assets, thus selling the euro.

Note, however, that American data doesn’t give much reason for stronger US dollar. Labor market data weren’t very bright and the prospect of the Fed’s rate this summer is under big question. Technically, declining 100-week MA at 1.1637 is a strong obstacle for the euro bulls. Weekly close below 1.1460 will confirm the bearish candle with a long upper shadow signaling a temporary top. Yet, there are little reason to expect a big decline in EUR/USD. Bearish correction should find support at 1.1300/1.1250. The bulls need to return above 1.1500 to regain power.

Other events in European economic calendar next week include German factory orders and the Eurogroup meetings on Monday and industrial production data on Tuesday and Wednesday.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8881

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

USD/JPY: forecast for May 9-15

By Elizabeth Belugina

USD/JPY hit 105.55, the lowest level since October 2014. Then US currency managed to get a bit higher thanks to brighter comments of the Federal Reserve’s members. US economic data were mixed: ISM manufacturing index disappointed, but services index exceeded expectations. American nonfarm payrolls also missed expectations. All in all, at this point strengthening in the greenback looks more like a correction or consolidation.

The main reason behind the yen’s strength was the lack of monetary stimulus from the Bank of Japan in April. Forex intervention to weaken yen are unlikely at this point with Japan hosting the next key G7 meeting on May 26-27, especially if further decline in USD/JPY is gradual.

Another important factor for USD/JPY is the market’s risk sentiment, with which the pair is closely correlated. Japanese stocks are declining because of the weak corporate earnings, and this doesn’t make investors feel optimistic. Watch Chinese currency reserves and trade balance data this weekend as well as the nation’s inflation figures on Tuesday. Weaker Chinese PMIs already affected USD/JPY in the past days.

Support is at 105.20 (October 2014 low, 100-week MA), 105.00 (psychological level) ahead of 103.70 (May 2013 high). Resistance is at 108.30, 110.00 and 111.00.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8882

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

USD/JPY: forecast for May 9-15

By Elizabeth Belugina

USD/JPY hit 105.55, the lowest level since October 2014. Then US currency managed to get a bit higher thanks to brighter comments of the Federal Reserve’s members. US economic data were mixed: ISM manufacturing index disappointed, but services index exceeded expectations. American nonfarm payrolls also missed expectations. All in all, at this point strengthening in the greenback looks more like a correction or consolidation.

The main reason behind the yen’s strength was the lack of monetary stimulus from the Bank of Japan in April. Forex intervention to weaken yen are unlikely at this point with Japan hosting the next key G7 meeting on May 26-27, especially if further decline in USD/JPY is gradual.

Another important factor for USD/JPY is the market’s risk sentiment, with which the pair is closely correlated. Japanese stocks are declining because of the weak corporate earnings, and this doesn’t make investors feel optimistic. Watch Chinese currency reserves and trade balance data this weekend as well as the nation’s inflation figures on Tuesday. Weaker Chinese PMIs already affected USD/JPY in the past days.

Support is at 105.20 (October 2014 low, 100-week MA), 105.00 (psychological level) ahead of 103.70 (May 2013 high). Resistance is at 108.30, 110.00 and 111.00.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8882

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Gold: forecast for May 9-15

Kira Iukhtenko

Gold price spent the week in a consolidative mode, forming a doji candle. Bullion failed to overcome the $1300 resistance for now (January 2015 highs), but we expect the bullish move to be extended after a short-term correction.

The Friday’s US job report caused a volatility boost for the yellow metal: price gapped higher to $1280, but has quickly retraced gains. We believe the sluggish labor market lowers the chance for a hawkish Fed in June. This is negative for the greenback and positive for gold.

Trade idea: BUY gold on a decisive close above $1300, TP1 at $1325 (next major resistance, 200-week MA), TP2 at $1345, STOP LOSS at $1280

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8883