Market news and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

US Dollar: forecast for May 9-15

Kira Iukhtenko

US labor market data came out mixed on Friday. The economy added only 160K new jobs in April, while the March reading was revised down to 208K. At the same time, average hourly earnings growth accelerated to 0.3%.

The US Dollar developed a bullish correction last week and extended the move on Friday, retracing from the 92 points low to almost 94 points. From the technical view, the US currency found support at the 2015 lows.

However, the jobs report failed to shed the light on the Fed’s decision at the June meeting – there is still a lot of uncertainty. In our view, the economic data is not strong enough to justify a hawkish Fed in June, so the greenback still remains highly vulnerable for selling in the coming weeks. A double top with targets around 80 points could be formed in the coming months.

Watch the US crude oil inventories figures on Wednesday. On Thursday pay attention to jobless claims data and import prices. FOMC members George and Rosengren will deliver their speeches as well. On Friday the market focus will turn to the producer price index and retail sales data.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8884

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

AUD/USD: forecast for May 9-15

Elizabeth Belugina

AUD/USD fell from the levels above 0.7700 below 0.7400. The Reserve bank of Australia cut benchmark interest rate from 2% to the record low of 1.75%. In addition, the RBA cut its inflation forecast for the end of this year from a range of 2-3% to just 1-2%. Inflation outlook for 2017 and 2018 was also revised to the downside. According to the central bank, economic prospects of China – one of Australia’s biggest trading partners – is a “key source of uncertainty.”

In these circumstances, it looks like Aussie has room for further weakness. Below 0.7330/15 AUD/USD will be vulnerable for a decline to 0.7250 and 0.7215. On the upside the pair will meet resistance at 0.7400, 0.7450 and 0.7500.

Watch the market’s risk sentiment and keep an eye on Chinese currency reserves and trade balance data this weekend as well as the nation’s inflation figures on Tuesday.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8886

 

[DarkMindFX]

Forex Analytics

Watch the market’s risk sentiment and keep an eye on Chinese currency reserves and trade balance data this weekend as well as the nation’s inflation figures on Tuesday.

Hi I've got couple of questions.
1. "Watch market sentiment" could you please share with us whether you have any tools how we can do this? Or maybe you can advise us how to gauge the sentiment? It's particularly hard when the only info you have is some news which are just 99% of trash and tech indicators.
2. Could you please provide explanations to the charts? I would really appreciate it!

Thanks in advance!

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: "Thorn" helped bears to reach the low
9 May 2016

The price faced the 55 Moving Average, so we’ve got a local flat in progress. It’s likely that the market is going to reach a support at 1.1327 in the short term. If so, an upward correction becomes possible, so we should keep an eye on a resistance at 1.1398 – 1.1437 as a probable next bullish target.

There’s a “V-Top”, which led to the current decline. The market is likely going to get a resistance at 1.1437 during the day. If we see a pullback from this line, bears will probably try to achieve a support at 1.1369 – 1.1339.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8888

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBP/USD: one more "V-Top"
9 May 2016

The pair has been falling down since a “Wedge” was ended. Therefore, the market is likely going to reach a support at 1.4343 – 1.4305 in the short term. If bears be stopped here, there’ll be an opportunity to see the price on a resistance at 1.4473 – 1.4513.

There’s a local flat in progress between a resistance at 1.4443 and a support at 1.4402. It’s likely that the pair is going to test a resistance at 1.4472 on Monday. Considering a possible pullback from this level, bears will probably try to deliver a new low very soon.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8889

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

NZD/JPY reversed from major support level 73.20
9 May 2016
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-NZD/JPY reversed from major support level 73.20
-Next buytarget - 74.60

NZD/JPY continues to rise after the earlier upward reversal from the major support level 73.20 (which has reversed the previous sharp impulse waves ①, (1) and 1, as can be seen from the daily NZD/JPY chart below). The support level 73.20 is the lower boundary of the powerful support zone which has been reversing the price from August of 2015. The support zone near the support level73.20 was strengthened by the lower daily Bollinger Band.

Given the strength of the support level 73.20 and the oversold reading on the daily Stochastic indicator - NZD/JPY can be expected to correct up to the next resistance level 74.60 (top of the aforementioned price range).

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8890

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/AUD reached buy target 1.5430
9 May 2016
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-EUR/AUD reached buy target 1.5430
-Next buy target - 1.5690

EUR/AUD recently broke through the resistance level 1.5430, which was set as the buy target in our previous forecast for this currency pair. The breakout of this resistance level continues the active minor impulse wave 3, which belongs to the intermediate impulse wave (3) from April. The active impulse wave 3 started earlier - when the pair reversed up from the support zone surrounding the pivotal support level 1.5200 (former strong resistance level which stopped the previous B-wave).

EUR/AUD is likely to rise further in the active impulse waves 3 and (3) toward the next buy target at the resistance level 1.5690.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8891

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: "Belt Hold" has stopped bears
9 May 2016

We’ve got a “Belt Hold” on the 55 Moving Average, so there's an opportunity to see the market rising in the short term. Also, there's a “Doji” on the Daily chart, but it hasn’t been confirmed yet. Anyway, today’s candle is likely going to be white.

The price faced with a strong resistance by the last “Three Methods” pattern on the 21 Moving Average. At the same time, the market hasn't reached the nearest “Window”, so it could be achieved soon.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8892

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

USD/JPY: "Hammer" scared all bears away
9 May 2016

The nearest “Window” has been broken, so the market is likely going to reach the next “Window” in the short term, because we don’t have any reversal patterns so far. As we can see on the Daily chart, there’re two “Hammers” at the last low. Under this circumstances, the pair is probably going to test the 13 Moving Average.

The price has successfully formed a pullback from the nearest support line, which brought a “Harami” pattern on it. The last candles are bullish, so the market is likely going to taste the upper “Window” shortly.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8893

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: bears are preparing for a correction
10 May 2016

There's a “Thorn” pattern, which helped bears to move on. Currently, the price achieved the 55 Moving Average and the uptrend line. Considering previously formed bearish patterns, it's likely that the market is going to break these levels. If so, the main bearish target will be a support at 1.1327, which is strong enough to enter the pair into an upward correction phase.

We've got a new low, but overall the pair is moving in a flat. So, the price is likely going to get a support somewhere on the nearest Moving Averages. If we see a pullback from these lines, there'll likely be even more bearish pressure on the market.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8900

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBP/USD: "V-Bottom" has stopped the decline
10 May 2016

The price faced a support on the 89 Moving Average, which stopped bears. However, the current downtrend is likely going to move on, so we should keep an eye on the nearest support at 1.4343 – 1.4305. Therefore, a bullish correction becomes possible afterwards.

There's a flat in progress under the Moving Averages. It's likely that the market is going to reach a resistance at 1.4406 during the day. At the same time, bears still have enough power to deliver a new low subsequently.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8901

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

United Overseas Bank: targets for FX majors
10 May 2016

EUR/USD: Neutral: Downside has potential to extend lower to 1.1300

GBP/USD: Neutral: Daily fix below 1.4400 could lead to more declines to 1.4300

AUD/USD: Bearish: Expect slow move lower, below 0.7300 targets 0.7240

USD/JPY: Switch from neutral to bullish: Recovery to extend higher to 109.70

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8902

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

USD/JPY reached sell target 106.00
10 May 2016
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-USD/JPY reached sell target 106.00
-Next buytarget - 110.00

USD/JPY continues to rise following the earlier upward reversal from the support level 106.00, which was set in our previous forecast as the sell target for this currency pair. The support zone near the support level 106.00 was strengthened by the lower daily Bollinger Band. The upward reversal from this support zone stopped the earlier minor impulse wave (iii) – which belongs to impulse wave 5 from the start of March.

USD/JPY is likely to rise further toward the next buy target at the resistance level 110.00 (intersecting with the resistance trendline of the daily down channel from the start of February).

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8904

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

NZD/USD reached sell target 0.6850
10 May 2016
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-NZD/USD reached sell target 0.6850
-Next sell target - 0.6650

NZD/USD has been falling in the last few trading sessions inside the minor impulse wave 3, which belongs to the intermediate impulse wave (C) from the middle of April. The price earlier broke through the support level 0.6850, which was set as the sell target in our previous forecast for this currency pair. The breakout of the support level 0.6850 coincided with the breakout of the support trendline of the daily up channel from January.

NZD/USD is expected to fall further toward the next sell target at the support level 0.6650 (target price calculated for the completion of the active minor impulse wave 3). Strong resistance now stands at 0.6850.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8905

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: "Engulfing" killed the bearish enthusiasm
10 May 2016

There's a strong support by the 55 Moving Average, but the last bearish “Hammer” and “Engulfing” haven’t been confirmed yet. So, there’s an open door for an achievement the 89 Moving Average in the short term. As we can see on the Daily chart, there're an unconfirmed “Doji” and an “Inverted Hammer”, so the market is likely going to test the nearest support line.

The strong support by the last “Window” has done a good job, so we’ve got a “Hammer” and an “Engulfing”, which both have been confirmed enough. Also, there’s a “High Wave” on the 21 Moving Average. Therefore, the price is likely going to reach the “Window” once again.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8906

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

USD/JPY: the new bullish attack is not far off
10 May 2016

The nearest “Window” has been broken, so bulls are free to move on, because there’s a “Mat Hold” pattern. As we can see on the Daily chart, there isn’t any reversal pattern so far. Therefore, the market is likely going to test the 21 Moving Average soon.

The price has found a lodgement above the broken “Window”. Moreover, there’s a “Three Methods” pattern, so the market is likely going to test the next resistance. If we see any bearish pattern on this line, there’ll be an opportunity for the second achievement of the “Window”.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8907

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GOLD: planes of Bulls were not changed
10 May 2016
Leonid Varfolomeev

The insignificant breakdown of the level 5/8 (1265.63) is unlikely to be regarded as a signal to a further reduction. After all, the trend has not changed, moreover, STD1 not changed the colour. Nevertheless, the scenario with the test mark at 4/8 (1250.00) is possible, for which a price should go below 1257.50. On this basis, sales are now inappropriate, and the main variant of the development of situation is the increase to the area of level 6/8 (1281.25).

Trade Recommendation:

Buy – 1264.00; sl – 1257.50; tp – 1280.00.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8910

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

NZD/USD: the return to the area of 0.6836 is expected.
10 May 2016
Leonid Varfolomeev

The pair eventually broke the level 4/8(0.6836) from the third time. The price has being returned to this level too often recently, however, in spite of the trend change, the growth to the area of merger of STD1 with level 4/8 (0.6836) is the most likely. But given the attempt of price fixation below the level of 3/8 (0.6775), as well as declining STH4, the bearish target at level 2/8 (0.6714) is likely to be achieved. After that, we should expect a return to 4/8.

Trade Recommendation:

Buy – 0.6715; sl – 0.6650; tp – 0.6830.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8911

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: trendline under the bearish pressure
11 May 2016

Bears have been stopped by the current uptrend line, so we’ve got a flat in progress. The market is likely going to break the trendline in the short term. Therefore, we should keep an eye on the nearest support at 1.1327 as the next bearish target. If we see a pullback from this line, there’ll be a chance to have an upward correction.

The pair has been moving in a downward flat under the Moving Averages. It's likely that the price is going to get a resistance at 1.1413 during the day. If so, bears will probably try to move on and reach a support at 1.1369 – 1.1339 afterwards.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8920

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBP/USD: flat in the range of a "Pennant" pattern
11 May 2016

There's a flat in progress between a resistance by the 55 Moving Average and a support at 1.4374. Considering a “Wedge” and a “V-Top”, the market is likely going to falling down towards the upper side of the nearest support zone at 1.4343 – 1.4305. If a pullback from this area happens, there’ll be an opportunity to see an upward correction.

We’ve got a possible “Pennant” pattern, so the pair is likely going to test its upper side. In case of a pullback from there, bears will probably try to deliver a new low afterwards. So, we should put an attention to the nearest trendline as the next probable bearish goal.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8921