Market news and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: "Belt Hold" left no chances for bears
26 April 2016
Galina Svetlova

There's a possible ending of the current “Three Methods” pattern, which pushed the price to the 21 Moving Average. Bulls are likely going to move on towards the nearest resistance. Moreover, we've got two bullish patterns on the Daily chart such as a “Piercing Line” and a “Belt Hold”. Therefore, today’s candle is probably going to be a white as well as yesterday’s one.

The two last “Three Methods” patterns have done a good job, so we’ve got a bullish rally on the way. Also, there’s an “Engulfing” pattern, which led to the current upward movement. It’s likely to see any kind of bearish pattern on the “Window” nearby. If so, it’s be a chance to local downward correction to happen.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8746

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBP/CHF rising inside intermediate impulse wave (3)
26 April 2016
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-GBP/CHF rising inside intermediate impulse wave (3)
-Next buy target - 1.4290

GBP/CHF continues to rise inside the intermediate impulse wave (3) – which belongs to the primary Ⓒ-wave, which started earlier – when the pair reversed up with the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Morning Star from the strong support level 1.3400. The active impulse wave (3) earlier broke through the resistance trendline of the daily down channel from last December.

GBP/CHF is likely to rise further toward the next buy target at the resistance level1.4290 (top of the previous waves (b) and 2; forecast price for the completion of the active impulse wave (3)).

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8747

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

USD/JPY reversed from resistance zone
26 April 2016
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-USD/JPY reversed from resistance zone
-Next sell target - 109.00

USD/JPY recently reversed down from the resistance zone lying between the pivotal resistance level 111.40 (former strong support level which reversed the price in February and March) and the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp minor impulse wave (i) from the end of March. The downward reversal from this resistance zone stopped the previous minor ABC correction (ii) which belongs to impulse 5 of the intermediate (C)-wave from last November.

USD/JPY is likely to fall further to the next sell target at the support level 109.00. Sell stop-loss can be placed above the aforementioned resistance level 111.40.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8748

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for April 27
By Kira Iukhtenko

Forex market remains calm ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting that will take place on Wednesday. The Fed is widely expected to leave interest rate unchanged tomorrow and there is no press-conference planned. That’s why traders all over the world will be closely watching the FOMC policy statement for any hints on a rate hike on the June meeting. The chance for any is low in light of the worrisome economic indicators we’ve seen recently. On Tuesday week durable goods orders data confirm the concerns: US economy could have slowed down over the Q1 2016. These expectations are hurting the US dollar.

EUR/USD is pushing higher for a second day in a row. Dovish Federal Reserve could support the euro tomorrow, pushing the pair towards the major resistance at 1.1460. However, the 1.1500 area still remains a hard nut to crack for the buyers, so be careful about going long on highs. There are no releases scheduled in the euro zone tomorrow, so all eyes will be glued to the Fed.

GBP/USD has finally broken above the 1.4500 area. Given such a decisive move, I’m cancelling my bearish forecasts for now. An inverse “head-and-shoulders” pattern with an initial target of 1.5000 has been confirm. Beware the 1.4660 resistance, though (February high). Watch the UK advance Q1 GDP tomorrow – if slowdown confirmed, the pair could retrace lower, but later in the day the Fed could become a game-changer once again.

You may find my analytical overview of USD/JPY and AUD/USD in the video.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8753

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: "V-Top" has been formed at the high
27 April 2016
Sergey Logachev

The price has formed a “V-Bottom” pattern, which led to the last bullish movement. Finally, the pair reached a resistance at 1.1341, so we’ve got a “V-Top” at the local high. There’s a possible downward “Wedge” in progress, but it hasn’t been confirmed yet. Therefore, the market is likely going to achieve a support at 1.1217 – 1.1195. If we see a pullback from these levels, bulls will probably try to catch a resistance at 1.1269 – 1.1294.

The market was falling down since a “V-Top” was formed at the last high. There’re the Moving Average lines, which all are acted as a support. The pair is likely going to reach a support at 1.1284 – 1.1269. Considering a possible pullback from this area, we should keep an eye on a resistance at 1.1309 as the next bullish target.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8755

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBP/USD: the price took hold under the trend
27 April 2016
Sergey Logachev

The price has been rising dramatically since a “Triple Bottom” was formed in a range of the last Support Zone. Finally, the price got a resistance at 1.4638 under the downtrend line. The market is likely going to reach a support at 1.4534 – 1.4513. At the same time, the second achievement of the nearest resistance at 1.4638 is still on the table.

We've got a “V-Top” pattern, which brought a local flat to the market. It’s likely that the price is going to reach a support at 1.4534 – 1.4513. In case of a pullback from these levels, bulls will have an opportunity to taste the last high again.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8756

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Pound continued to recover
27 April 2016
Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst


Currency pair GBPUSD yesterday updated local maximums to 1.4640 again and gathered up to three-month levels.

On the four-hour time frame, of course, there was a bullish pattern: there is still active gold cross formed by Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen lines; and Ichimoku cloud quite strongly expanded the range up, maintaining long-term traders.

At the same time, the market must “throw off” load overbought, which was suggested by Chinkou Span. Therefore, in the near future we do not exclude the possibility of downward correction to the Tenkan-sen before the growth will continue.

Technical levels: support - 1.4560, 1.4520; resistance - 1.4600, 1.4650.

Trading recommendations:

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8759

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Westpac: why it’s time to buy AUD/USD?
27 April 2016

Analysts at Westpac recommend buying AUD/USD at 0.7585 with Stop Loss at 0.7495 as they expect in to make another bullish attempt to overcome 0.7800 next week and rise above 0.8000 next month.

Australian dollar fell on Monday on the lower than expected inflation data from Australia. CPI came at -0.2% vs. +0.3% expected. Trimmed mean CPI. Which excludes most volatile items, was just +0.2% vs. the forecast of +0.5%.

However, Westpac points out that iron ore prices are still high that is a very positive factor for Aussie. The specialists don’t think that the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut interest rate next week. On the other hand, they believe that the US dollar will decline after the Federal Reserve’s meeting, and the market’s risk sentiment will improve after the Bank of Japan’s meeting on Thursday – all of this is good for AUD/USD.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8760

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD storms the cloud
27 April 2016
Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst

During yesterday's trading session EUR/USD managed to recover at the lower boundary of the four-hour Ichimoku cloud and the whole day tried to break through to the positive area. However, the bulls still cannot handle the cloud resistance, which was created around 1.1300/10.

At the moment the situation is very difficult as, despite the bearish nature of the cloud, the bulls can break through the level. It will mean the renewal of the ascending daily trend.

Technical levels: support – 1.1270; resistance – 1.1300/10.

Trading recommendations:

1. Buy — 1.1330; SL — 1.1310; TP1 — 1.1410; TP2 — 1.1450.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8761

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: bulls has shattered the "Window"
27 April 2016
Galina Svetlova

The last “Three Methods” pattern did a great job as the price has broken the Moving Average lines. Moreover, it's likely to see a new “Three Methods” soon. If so, the market is likely going to move on towards the upper resistance levels. As we can see on the Daily chart, we’ve got a “Piercing Line” and a “Belt Hold” at the last low. Therefore, today’s candle is likely going to be bullish as well as yesterday’s one.

There’s a “Three Methods” above the Moving Average. The market is likely going to test these lines during the day. If any bullish pattern arrives afterwards, buyers will be more that just happy to deliver a new high.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8762

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

AUD/NZD falling inside minor impulse wave 3
27 April 2016
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-AUD/NZD falling inside minor impulse wave 3
-Next selltargets - 1.1030 and 1.0960

AUD/NZD continues to fall inside the sharp minor impulse wave 3 - which started earlier – when the price reversed down from the resistance zone lying between the resistance levels 1.1250 and 1.1340. This resistance zone has been repeatedly reversing this currency pair from last year, as can be seen from the daily AUD/NZD chart below. The aforementioned resistance zone was strengthened by the upper daily Bollinger Band.

Having recently broken through the support trendline from the middle of January - AUD/NZD is likely to fall further in the active impulse wave 3 toward the next sell targets at the support levels 1.1030 and 1.0960.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8763

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

AUD/CAD broke pivotal support level 0.9630
27 April 2016
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-AUD/CAD broke pivotal support level 0.9630
-Next sell target - 0.9550

AUD/CAD has been falling in the last few trading sessions inside the intermediate downward impulse wave (3) – which started earlier - when the pair reversed down from the parity. The price today broke through the pivotal support level 0.9630 (which stopped the earlier sharp intermediate impulse wave (1) at the start of March, as can be seen from the daily AUD/CAD chart below).

The breakout of the support level 0.9630 is likely to intensify the bearish pressure on this currency pair in the coming trading sessions. AUD/CAD is expected to fall further to the next sell target at the support level 0.9550 (forecast price for the completion of the active impulse wave (3)).

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8764

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Oil: the major trends of the week
27 April 2016

The week is still respectively positive for oil against the background of several crucial factors, including the following key issues: the US dollar easing, the US oil reserve decreasing and OPEC member’s disagreements about several fields development.

A key factor, influencing the oil quotes now and probably the next few weeks, is the fact that Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Iran are planning to increase oil production volume. Saudi Arabia is upgrading the Shaybah field capacity, that may produce additional oil volume within the coming months, if the modernization is finished according to the plans, i.e. by June of the current year.

Kuwait’s oil production suffered last week because of oil workers’ strike, but as it ended oil will be produced more actively in Kuwait.

Iran continues to increase oil production, willing to return to the value before sanctions. Starting from the current year, the daily production performance is increased by 1 million barrel; that consequently leads to target value of 4 million barrels per day.

However, there is a number of crucial factors too: firstly, the US oil reserve report for the previous week shows the decrease by 1.1 million barrel, thought the increase by 2.4 million barrel was expected. The American Petroleum Institute (API) relies on the previously received data and says that the current oil reserve volume is on 538.4-million-barrel level.

By the same token, there is information about Saudi Arabia’s and Kuwait’s inability to continue Khafji field development. Let us remind, that the field was closed in October 2014 due to the environmental issues. The field’s potential is estimated as 300 thousand barrels per day, and it may lead to higher oil productivity of both counties, but the field seems to be still closed for now.

Moreover, one of the key factors is the US dollar easing prior to the Federal Reserve meeting. Despite the fact that the US dollar adjustments and its further easing are both possible after the meeting, investors are careful and tend to believe in the continuation of the “cheep” dollar era and the Fed rate stability in the near future. The factor positively influences the crude material price and supports both oil benchmarks.

The trades of current week:

At the time of writing (Wednesday, April 27), both benchmark crude oils are being traded around the 5-month maximum level prior to the Fed meeting results.

Starting from Monday, Brent crude oil shows the increase by $1.65 per barrel and reaches the $46.55 level. The maximum growth was noticed on Tuesday evening (April 26), when investors started selling the US dollars actively. WTI Crude oil reacts in the similar way: it is traded at $44,88 level, near the key level of $45. The US crude oil increased by $1.3 from Monday in total.

Brent/WTI, H1

If the Fed meeting’s results are negative to the US dollar, both oil benchmarks may show the increase by 1.5-2.5%. The Brent oil target value is $47.25 per barrel, the WYI oil target value is $46 per barrel.

In case of the Fed meeting’s positive results, both benchmark may be traded down; the expected support level for Brent crude oil is around the $44.5 level, and WTI crude oil is supported at $43 per barrel.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8770

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for April 28

By Elizabeth Belugina

A very important event for the US dollar is due on Wednesday: the results of the Federal Reserve’s meeting will be released at 18:00 GMT. The change in the central bank’s interest rate is very unlikely, so the main thing to watch will be the Fed’s statement. There are some more hawkish members within the Fed, so the central bank may prepare ground for a potential rate hike this summer. Yet, the central bank will probably try to sound balanced. The main thing to watch is whether the phrases about “unstable situation at global financial markets” and “risks for global economy as a whole and the US economy in particular” remain in the text of the statement. If they do, the US currency will remain under negative pressure. If they don’t, the greenback will gain versus other majors.

Later on Wednesday watch Japanese inflation and retail sales figures: the forecasts are negative. There’s also chance that the Bank of Japan will ease policy on Thursday. You can learn more about trading on the Japanese central bank’s decision here.

The meeting of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will take place on Wednesday night. Support for NZD/USD is at 0.7800/7780, while resistance is at 0.6900/50.

Resistance for EUR/USD lies in 1.1350/1.1375 area, while support is at 1.1215/1.1190. The advance of GBP/USD stalled as British economic growth pace decline in Q1. Support is at 1.4550 and 1.4500. Resistance is at 1.4640/70.

AUD/USD fell below 0.7600 as Australian CPI unexpectedly contracted in Q1. This revived expectations of potential RBA rate cut next week. Watch support at 0.7560 ahead of 0.7500 and 0.7400. Resistance is at 0.7690.

Find more analysis for the major currency pairs in the video.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8772

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: "Flag" brought a flat into the market
28 April 2016
Sergey Logachev

The price has been moving up and down between a resistance at 1.1364 and a support at 1.1269. Also, there's a possible downward “Wadge”, so the market is likely going to reach the 55 Moving Average. If we see a pullback from this line, bulls will have an opportunity to break the “Wadge’s” upper side.

There's a flat in progress under the local downtrend line. It's likely that the market is going to reach a resistance at 1.1339 – 1.1348 in the short term. Considering a possible pullback from this area, we should keep an eye on the nearest support at 1.1295 as a possible bearish target.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8774

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBP/USD: the downtrend line is restraining bears
28 April 2016
Sergey Logachev

The price has faced a resistance at 1.4638, which led to form a “Double Top” pattern. The pair was falling down afterwards, but bears has been stopped by a “Thorn”. It’s likely that the market is going to decline towards a support at 1.4473 – 1.4458. If we see a pullback from these levels, the downtrend line will have a chance to be broken.

There’s a downward correction in progress, which brought a “Thorn” pattern at the local low. So, the market is likely going to rise towards a resistance at 1.4588 – 1.4620. If a pullback from this area happens, bears will probably try to reach a support at 1.4495 – 1.4469.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8775

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

AUD/JPY falling inside intermediate impulse wave (3)
28 April 2016
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-AUD/JPY falling inside intermediate impulse wave (3)
-Next selltarget - 81.30

AUD/JPY continues to fall inside the sharp intermediate impulse wave (3), which started earlier, when the pair reversed down from the resistance zone lying between the resistance level 86.00 (which has been reversing the price from the end of January, as can be seen below), 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp downward impulse wave from December and the resistance trendline of the wide daily down channel from last year.

AUD/JPY is expected to fall further in the active impulse wave (3) toward the next sell target at the support level 81.30 (which stopped previous impulse wave (1) at the start of April).

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8779

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBP/JPY completed minor ABC correction 4
28 April 2016
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-GBP/JPY completed minor ABC correction 4
-Next sell target - 155.00

GBP/JPY recently reversed down sharply from the resistance zone located between resistance level 162.30 (which also previously reversed the price at the end of March, as can be seen from the daily GBP/JPY chart below), upper daily Bollinger Band and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp minor impulse wave 3 from the start of February. The downward reversal from this resistance zone stopped the previous minor ABC correction 4.

With the daily Stochastic still moving in the overbought area - GBP/JPY can be expected to fall down further toward the next sell target at the support level 155.00. Strong resistance now stands at 162.30.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8780

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

FTSE 100 reversed from resistance zone
28 April 2016
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-FTSE 100 reversed from resistance zone
-Next sell target - 6160.00

FTSE 100 continues to fall inside the minor corrective wave 2 – which started earlier – when the index reversed down from the strong resistance zone surrounding the major resistance level 6400.00 (which has been reversing the index from September of 2015, as can be seen from the daily FTSE 100 chart below). The aforementioned resistance zone was strengthened by the upper daily Bollinger Band and by the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the previous downward impulse from last May.

FTSE 100 is likely to fall further toward the next sell target at the support level 6160.00 (former strong resistance level, which has been reversing the index in March).

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8781

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: bulls has broken the "Wedge"
29 April 2016
Sergey Logachev

The price has broken the upper side of the last “Wadge” pattern, which led to the current rise. Despite of a resistance at 1.1397, the market is likely going to move on towards a resistance at 1.1412 – 1.1431. If bulls be stopped here, there’ll be a chance to see a downward correction.

As we can see on the one-hour chart, the last downtrend line has been broken. We’ve got a resistance at 1.1398, but it likely brings just a local correction. So, bulls are probably going to reach a resistance at 1.1412 – 1.1431. If a pullback from this area happens, we should keep an eye on a support at 1.1387 – 1.1367 as the next bearish target.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8797