Market news and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/AUD broke support level 1.4730
14 April 2016
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-EUR/AUD broke support level 1.4730
-Next sell targets - 1.4600 and 1.4470

EUR/AUD recently broke through the support level 1.4730, which was set as the sell target in our previous forecast for this currency pair. The breakout of this support level follows the earlier breakout of the support trendline of the daily up channel from the start of March – which accelerated the active minor correction 2, which belongs to the intermediate impulse wave (3) from last month.

EUR/AUD is likely to fall further toward the next sell target at the support level 1.4600, the breakout of which can lead to further losses toward the next strong support level 1.4470 (which reversed the previous waves (2) and ②).

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8614

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

FX BAZOOKA trading plan for April 15

By Kira Iukhtenko

US Dollar remains rather vulnerable after we’ve seen slower than expected US inflation on Thursday. However, EUR/USD remains under bearish pressure mostly due to the bearish factors: the pair extends correction after approaching the 1.1450/1.1510 long-term resistance area. Next support for the pair lies at 1.1220 (38.2% Fibonacci from the March rally). Break lower will open the way to 1.1140.

GBP/USD also remains a SELL for the coming sessions: the pair came under a renewed bearish pressure after hitting 1.4350 yesterday. The BOE meeting today failed to bring any surprises, but the central bank warned the EU exit will hurt the UK economy.

AUD/USD is pushing higher, supported by the strong labor market data released on Thursday. Option barriers are clustered around 0.7750. Beware the Chinese GDP and industrial manufacturing data release on Friday – this is something that could initiate a pullback in the Aussie’s rally.

As for USD/JPY, the pair has potential for more upside: key resistance moved to 110 yen. This level will be crucial for the further dynamics of the market. In my view, the USD upside still remains limited in this pair.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8621

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: price came back in a range of "Triangle"
15 April 2016
Sergey Logachev

The market has came back in a range of the current “Triangle” pattern and finally faced a support on the 89 Moving Average, which brought a local flat. The price is likely going to reach the next support at 1.1217. If we see a pullback from this line, bulls will have an opportunity to achieve a resistance area between the the 55 Moving Average and the level at 1.1326.

The pair found a support at 1.1242, which stopped bears, so we've got an open door for an upward correction. It's likely that the market is going to get a resistance at 1.1284 – 1.1294. If so, a decline will probably happen in the direction of a support at 1.1233 – 1.1219.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8624

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBP/USD: one more "Thorn"
15 April 2016
Sergey Logachev

We've got one more “Thorn”, which led to the current upward correction. The market is likely going to get a support at 1.4117 – 1.4089 once again. If so, bulls will probably try to reach a resistance at 1.4234, which is strengthened by the downtrend line.

There’s a flat in progress on the one-hour chart. We’ve got a support at 1.4120 and a resistance on the Moving Average lines. Therefore, the pair is likely going to rise towards a resistance at 1.4170 – 1.4177. If bulls be stopped here, we should keep en eye on a support at 1.4120 – 1.4089 as the next bearish goal.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8626

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

USD/CHF reached buy target 0.9650
15 April 2016
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-USD/CHF reached buy target 0.9650
-Next buy target - 0.9800

USD/CHF recently rose sharply breaking through the resistance level 0.9650, which was set as the buy target in our previous forecast for this currency pair. The breakout of the resistance level 0.9650 (former strong support level, which reversed the previous minor impulse waves (i) and (iii) in February and March) is likely to accelerate the active intermediate impulse wave (C)- which started earlier – when the pair reversed up from the major long-term support level 0.9500.

USD/CHF is likely to rise further in the active impulse wave (C) toward the next buy target at the resistance level 0.9800 (coinciding with the 50% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp downward impulse from the start of March).

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8630

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBP/AUD broke support levels 1.8600 and 1.8500
15 April 2016
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-GBP/AUD broke support levels 1.8600 and 1.8500
-Next sell target – 1.8000

GBP/AUD continues to decline after the earlier breakout of the support levels 1.8600 (which was set as the sell target in our previous forecast for this currency pair) and 1.8500 (which stopped the previous minor impulse wave (iii)). The breakout of the support level 1.8500 is likely to accelerate the active C-wave of the intermediate ABC correction (2) from last August.

GBP/AUD is expected to fall further in the active waves (v), C and (2) toward the next sell target at the round support level 1.8000. Sell stop-loss can be placed above the recently broken price level 1.8600.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8631

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBP/USD: forecast for April 18-24


By Kira Iukhtenko

The British pound attempted to recover at the beginning of the new week, but was capped by the 1.4350 mark. The pair is forming a candle with a long upper shadow on the weekly chart. The picture remains bearish and we expect the pair to break lower in the nearest future. Key support for the pair lies at 1.4090 and 1.4050. A break below 1.4050 would trigger a quicker selloff.

As can be seen from the H4 chart, the pair is now trading in a corrective bullish channel. The 1.4200 resistance is now crucial – a break higher would open the way for more upside correction, while the move will likely be limited by the 1.4300 area. The cable’s recovery will be limited by the 1.4250 area.

On the new week we’ll watch the UK labor market data on Wednesday. Unemployment held at its lowest level since 2008 in February. On Thursday, retail sales are scheduled for release. In February the reading fell by 0.4%. We’ll see whether anything changed in March.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8635

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

USD/JPY: forecast for April 18-24

By Elizabeth Belugina

USD/JPY recovered from 107.60, but met resistance in the 109.75 area. The pair was supported by the improved market’s risk sentiment. Investors’ mood became better as Chinese economic figures weren’t as bad as some had feared, and China is very important for the global economy.

Data released in the United States this week though don’t give any reasons to expect a strong increase in the American currency. US inflation figures came lower than expected and so did retail sales. It means that the possibility of a hawkish message from the Federal Reserve this month isn’t high. Moreover, the possibility of Japanese currency intervention at these levels is low, and this is another negative factor for the pair.

Next week Japan will release trade balance on Monday and manufacturing PMI and tertiary industry activity on Friday. The market’s risk sentiment will also depend on the outcome of Doha oil summit on Sunday: the event creates negative risk for USD/JPY.

The trend remains bearish and the pair will likely retest the recent lows. Decline below 107.60 will open the way down to 106.40 (38.2% Fibonacci of 2011-2015 advance). Resistance is at 110.00/10 (September 2014 high). If the bulls manage to get above this level, we will see correction up to 110.75 and 111.50.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8636

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

AUD/USD: forecast for April 18-24

By Elizabeth Belugina

AUD/USD once again rose to 0.7700 as the market’s risk sentiment improved and commodity prices went up.

However, this resistance level at 0.7700 will be a hard obstacle for the bulls. Here we find a resistance line, which is strengthened by the bearish divergence on the daily chart.

Fundamentally the increase in commodities may reverse after the oil summit in Doha this weekend making US dollar rise versus commodity currencies like Aussie.

On Tuesday the Reserve Bank of Australia will release the minutes of its April meeting. We will also hear from the central bank’s governor Stevens. The RBA probably doesn’t like the high levels of the national currency. On Thursday NAB quarterly business confidence will be released.

Sell targets lie at 0.7530/00. The pair should find some support in this area.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8638

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: forecast for April 18-24

By Elizabeth Belugina

EUR/USD breached down the lower border of its sideways channel at 1.1330 and settled in the new range between 1.1300 and 1.1230. American economic figures weren’t very impressive, so the decline was limited.

The highlight of the next week will be the European Central Bank’s meeting on Thursday. Last month the ECB President Mario Draghi said that the regulator is not planning to cut rates further anytime soon. If he repeats this position, the euro will get support. If Draghi hints that the euro area’s economy needs further monetary stimulus, the euro will suffer. Other important events in the European economic calendar include the release of German and the euro area’s ZEW economic sentiment indicators on Tuesday and the region’s flash services and manufacturing PMIs on Friday.

All in all, the strength of the US dollar will largely depend on the results of the meeting between the large oil producers of OPEC and Russia on Sunday, April 17. Oil prices have strengthened ahead of this event, so there is the risk that after the meeting itself we will see a selloff. This will be a positive factor for the US dollar and negative for EUR/USD.

Support is at 1.1140 ahead of 2016 support line at 1.0935. Resistance is in the 1.1340/75 area (March 17, February highs) ahead of 1.1440/60.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8637

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

US Dollar: forecast for April 18-24

By Kira Iukhtenko

Core inflation in United States rose by 0.1% in March, down from 0.3% in February. The weaker readings were driven by a monthly fall in clothing prices and lower healthcare inflation. Below-the-forecast reading adds to uncertainty about the further Fed’s policy moves. We believe that the prospects of the US currency remain subdued in the current conditions.

However, the Qatar oil producers’ meeting on Sunday, April 17th, is a risk to our main scenario. Disappointment from the meeting could trigger a sharp US Dollar correction to the upside, so beware this risk.

As for the economic calendar, on the new week we’ll pay attention to the housing market figures on Tuesday and the crude oil inventories data on Wednesday. On Thursday watch the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8639

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: an intraday "Triple Top" is going to end
18 April 2016
Sergey Logachev

There's a “Triple Top” pattern, which led to the current downward movement. The price faced a support at 1.1242, so we’ve got a local correction. Considering a possible “Flag”, the market is likely going to reach a support at 1.1217 – 1.1188. If we see a pullback somewhere in here, it’ll be a chance for bulls to achieve a resistance area between the 89 Moving Average and the level at 1.1273.

The pair found a resistance on the 55 Moving Average, which brought a consolidation into the market. There's a possible “Triple Top” in progress. If it confirms, the main goal is going to be a support at 1.1242 – 1.1222. At the same time, an upward correction will be possible afterwards, so we should bearing in mind a resistance at 1.1259 – 1.1284.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8642

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBP/USD: consolidation between the "Thorns"
18 April 2016
Sergey Logachev

We’ve got a local “V-Top” pattern, which led to a decline towards a support at 1.4170. The market is likely going to reach the next support at 1.4052. If bears be stopped here, there’ll be a chance to see an upward movement in the direction of a resistance at 1.4117 – 1.4194.

As we can see on the one-hour chart, the price faced a support at 1.4170. Currently, there’s a local consolidation in progress. Therefore, the pair is likely going to achieve a support at 1.4120 – 1.4089. In case of a pullback from this area, bulls will have an opportunity to reach a resistance at 1.4120 – 1.4150.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8643

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

USD/JPY: key time for 108.00
18 April 2016

Daily. USD/JPY tried to bottom around 108.00 during the past week. The bulls tried to make the pair stay above 109.00. However, on Friday they were stopped by Tenkan-sen, and the pair once again fell to 108.00.

As a result, despite the fact that the market is oversold, all lines of the daily Ichimoku indicator are pointed to the downside. The Cloud is expanding, the “dead cross” is active. As a result, the bears will likely soon attack 108.00 once again.

H4. On H4 the pair reached the Ichimoku Cloud, but the narrowing of Tenkan-Kijun channel and the pair’s return to 108.70 don’t allow the bulls to continue correction to the upside.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8648

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

BNP Paribas: buy EUR/USD
18 April 2016

Analysts at BNP Paribas recommend buying EUR/USD at 1.1290 with Take Profit at 1.1600 and Stop Loss at 1.1140.

According to the specialists, the euro will benefit in the risk off environment as the euro area has a large current account surplus. The US dollar, on the other hand, will lose to the single currency because the Federal Reserve will likely remain dovish and put off further rate hikes.

The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to leave its policy unchanged. BNP Paribas doesn’t expect the event to hurt the euro much.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8649

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: "Shooting Star" has stopped bulls
18 April 2016
Galina Svetlova

We’ve got a confirmation of the previously formed “Hammer” pattern. Moreover, there’s a possible “Three Methods” in progress, so the market is likely going to reach the 34 Moving Average. If price gets a resistance on this line, it'll be a chance for bears to resume their rally. As we can see on the Daily chart, here's a “Tower” pattern, but we’ve got a “High Wave” at the local low, so today’s candle is probably going to be a white one. If the price forms a pullback from the middle of the huge black candle, a new low will be delivered soon.

The price has been moving in a flat since a “Hammer” appeared at the last low. Also, we’ve got a “Three Methods” pattern, which points to a possibility that the current correction is likely going to be continued in the direction of the 55 Moving Average.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8650

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GOLD: trade ideas and technical levels
18 April 2016
By Kira Iukhtenko

Gold price remains stuck in the narrow 1229.0 - 1339.0 range on Monday, April 18. According to our main scenario, the yellow metal will likely develop more upside in the coming sessions. Capital flight to uncertainty will likely support gold prices as the oil producers meeting in Doha failed to bring any results.

Technically, the price holds above the former bearish trend resistance on the H4 chart. Break above the 1239.50 resistance (local high and 38.2% Fibonacci from the April decline) would open the way to 1244.00 amd 1248.0.

However, there is still a risk for more downside to be developped. This scenario could become true in case of a break below the daily low of 1129.9. Next target to go short lies at 1223.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8651

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

USD/JPY: bears let the "Black Crows" run free
18 April 2016
Galina Svetlova

There're a “Doji” and a “Three Black Crows” at the last high. Monday’s opening brought a new “Window”, so the price is likely going to get a resistance on it. If so, it’ll be possible to see a decline towards the last low. As we can see on the Daily chart, a “Hanging Man” candle has been confirmed, so the nearest support is probably going to be tested once again.

We’ve got a “Three Methods”, which was formed on Friday. This pattern did a great job, but a “Hammer” and an “Inverted Hammer” arrived afterwards, so there’s an open door for an achievement of the 21 Moving Average.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8653

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBP/JPY reversed from resistance zone
18 April 2016
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-GBP/JPY reversed from resistance zone
-Next sell target - 148.70

GBP/JPY opened this week with the downward gap – which follows the earlier downward reversal from the resistance zone lying between the pivotal resistance level 155.00 (former strong support level, which stopped the previous sharp minor impulse wave 1 in February, as can be seen below) and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction level of the previous sharp minor impulse wave (iii) from the end of March.

GBP/JPY is likely to fall further in the active impulse waves 3 and (5) toward the next sell target at the support level 152.50 (low of the previous impulse (iii)) – the breakout of which can lead to further losses toward the next sell target at 148.70 (target price for the completion of the active impulse wave (5)).

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8654

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

AUD/CAD rising inside minor impulse wave 3
18 April 2016
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-AUD/CAD rising inside minor impulse wave 3
-Next buy target – 1.0000

AUD/CAD recently reversed up sharply from the support zone lying at the intersection of support level 0.9800, lower daily Bollinger Band, 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp upward impulse 1 from the end of February and the former resistance trendline of the recently broken daily down channel from December – acting as support now after it was broken. The upward reversal from this support zone completed the previous minor ABC correction 2 from March.

AUD/CAD is likely to rise further in the active minor impulse wave 3 toward the next buy target at the parity (which has been reversing the price from the start of March, as can be seen below). Strong support remains at 0.9800.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8655