Market news and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "V-Bottom" launched bullish correction
12/21/2016

The price is still consolidating under a resistance at 1.0461. Also, there’s a “V-Bottom” pattern, so the market is likely going to test an area between the levels 1.0461 – 1.0506 in the short term. If a pullback from these levels happens, bears will be free to launch another decline.

The last “Flag” pattern has been broken, but a “V-Botton” arrived afterwards. Therefore, bulls are likely going to reach the 89 Moving Average soon. If we see a pullback from this line, there’ll be an opportunity to have a downward movement in the direction of a support at 1.0365 – 1.0340.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11791

 

[riki143]

Morning brief for December 21
12/21/2016

EUR/USD edged up to 1.0410 from yesterday’s low of 1.0350. But it happened due to the retreat in the dollar and not Eurozone macroeconomic releases/data flows that could support the euro. So, we see more downside going forward. Politics and terrorism will be the key drivers of the pair in the nearest future. Berlin crash in Germany, horrific attack in Switzerland and assassination in Turkey reflect growing populism and hatred in relation to immigrants. There is also another threat that looming on the horizon – Italy’s fragile banking sector. The Italian government has recently asked Parliament a permission to borrow money to bail-out the banks if the latter ones fail to raise sufficient funding.
USD/JPY hampered at 118 and retreated to 117.42 overnight. However, in the course of the Asian session, the US dollar managed to regain control over the market and rose to 117.60. It is a very hard time for the yen. Yesterday the Bank of Japan left its monetary stance unchanged with its short-term interest rate target at -0.1%. Also, the board decided to extend its asset-purchasing program and didn’t mention the probability of its tapering. The recent weakening of the yen didn’t spark talk of tapering, the BOJ adopted a wait-and-see attitude to check what happened with the yen after the New Year vacations.
AUD/USD managed to rebound from its extremely low levels overnight to 0.7275, but then failed to hold its positions and retreated to 0.7255. Aussie remains to be very vulnerable to commodity prices, subdued growth of Chinese economy and weakening of the renminbi. The Reserve Bank of Australia is in no haste to raise interest rate being unsatisfied with economic releases.
NZD/USD is trading along the 0.6925 level. New Zealand dairy prices slumped for the first time in 2 months, the trade deficit shrank but in the lesser extent than it was anticipated. Today we will receive New Zealand GDP update. The consensus forecast indicates a slight decrease in GDP number, so, Kiwi may extend its losses.
GBP/USD moved higher to 1.2385 yesterday, then it retreated to 1.2370. The pound is still under pressure on the back of the uncertainty over the Brexit process. 2016 was all about whether the Brexit can happen or not, next year everybody will be focused on the type of the new relationships between the EU and the UK.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11792

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: bulls going to test Moving Averages
12/21/2016

Bears faced a support at 1.2309, which led to form a “V-Bottom” pattern, so an upward correction was started. In this case, the market is likely going to test a resistance at 1.2418 – 1.2451 in the short term. Considering the previously formed “Wedge”, there’s an opportunity to have another decline afterwards. So, we should keep an eye on the next support at 1.2309 – 1.2270 as a possible intraday target.

We’ve got a “V-Bottom”, so the price is rising. So, bulls are likely going to achieve the 55 Moving Average in the short term. If a pullback from this line happens, there’ll be a chance to have a bearish price movement towards a support at 1.2309 – 1.2270.

MORE:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11793

 

[riki143]

USD: long-term projections from banks
12/21/2016

BNP Paribas => questions USD growth in the upcoming future

BNPP strategists call on traders to be watchful as central banks don’t always act in line with their projections (flashback: the Fed projected triple hike in 2017 at its last meeting). Some hurdles might appear on the greenback’s way to the Mount Olympus. BNPP strategists believe that acceleration of the US dollar’s pace towards the new highs might derail the Fed’s tightening plans.

Treasury concerns. Trump administration can raise concerns about the export implications of a stronger USD. So, the “strong dollar policy” might be questioned, and the administration might modify its expansionary plans which have already been well priced in by the market participants.

Other central bank response to the Fed’s tightening. The ECB may signal a tapering of its asset purchase programme by the end of 2017, especially if the euro goes down too fast. At the present time, the euro came too close to the banks’ EUR/USD parity target. The same can happen with the BoJ’s zero target for 10-year JGP yields. The Bank of Japan might allow its yields move higher if the yen weakens significantly against USD.

TD Bank => bullish outlook

TD analysts are bullish on the USD. They list a few fundamental factors that can continue pushing USD higher.

“Rising real and nominal rates in the US against the rest of the majors”;
Anticipation of the fiscal stimulus in the US;
Divergence in business cycles and varying timeframes for closing output gaps.
The bank is long USD/CAD expecting it to move towards 1.3650. AUD/USD should go lower, according to TD analysts, and reach the 0.7150 mark.

Deutsche Bank => bullish

The bank hints at a border USD strength. The DB strategists believe that Donald Trump’s and Paul Ryan’s “border tax adjustment” proposal should underpin the USD growth. The proposal would tax US imports at the corporate income tax rate and exempt income earned from exports from any taxation.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11797

 

[riki143]

Key option levels for Wednesday, December 21th
12/21/2016

EUR/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 37 146 ? - 51 577 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.0448; 1.0498; 1.0519; 1.0545/60
Closest support levels 1.0391; 1.0372; 1.0346/31; 1.0313
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.0391, with target points at 1.0372 and 1.0346
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.0448 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.0498 and 1.0519

GBP/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 150 ? + 447 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.2445; 1.2478; 1.2500; 1.2527
Closest support levels 1.2338; 1.2318; 1.2295; 1.2267
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short GBP/USD below 1.2338, with target points at 1.2318 and 1.2295
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.2445 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.2478 and 1.2500

USD/JPY

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Neutral
Changes in the open interest - 8 ? + 363 ?
Closest resistance levels 117.70; 118.05; 118.41; 118.76
Closest support levels 116.90; 116.40; 116.04; 115.61
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short USD/JPY below 116.90, with the target points at 116.40 and 116.04
Alternative scenario Moving above 117.70 can be considered as a signal to buy the pair, with target at 118.05 and 118.41

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11798

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bearish "Tweezers"
12/21/2016

We’ve got an “Engulfing”, but a confirmation of this pattern is a quite weak. Anyway, bulls are likely going to test the 13 Moving Average in the short term. If we see a pullback from this line, there’ll be an opportunity to have another decline. As we can see on the Daily chart, here’s a “High Wave”. If this pattern confirms, we’re going to have an upward correction.

The last “Harami” pattern stopped the bearish rally, but we’ve got a “Tweezers” at the local high. Therefore, the market is likely going to decline during the day. If any bullish pattern arrives afterwards, there’ll be an option to have a new local high.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11799

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: Moving Average going to act as a support
12/21/2016

There’s a “Shooting Star”, which has been confirmed enough. So, the price is likely going to test the 21 Moving Average in the short term. As we can see on the Daily chart, there isn’t any reversal pattern so far, but we’ve got a pattern similar to a “Three Methods”. In this case, bulls are likely going to test the last high.

We’ve got a bearish correction, which is taking place on the one-hour chart. Also, there’re a “Tweezers” and a “Harami”, which both have been confirmed enough. So, if a pullback from the 55 Moving Average happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have another bullish rally.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11800

 

[riki143]

AUD/JPY reached buy target 87.70
12/21/2016

AUD/JPY reached buy target 87.70
Next sell target – 84.60
AUD/JPY has been falling in the last few trading sessions inside the minor corrective wave (ii) – which started earlier this month – when the pair reversed down from the resistance zone lying at the intersection of the upper resistance trendline of the daily up channel from June, upper daily Bollinger Band and the resistance level 87.70 (which was set as the buy target in our previous forecast for this currency pair).

AUD/JPY can be expected to fall further to the next sell target at the key support level 84.60, standing close to the 50% Fibonacci correction level of the previous sharp upward impulse (i) from the middle of November.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11801

 

[riki143]

CAD/JPY reversed from resistance zone
12/21/2016

CAD/JPY reversed from resistance zone
Next sell target - 86.00
CAD/JPY continues to decline following the earlier downward reversal from the resistance zone lying at the intersection of the powerful, long-term resistance level 88.75 (which was set as the buy target in our previous forecast for this currency pair) and the upper daily Bollinger Band. The downward reversal from this resistance zone started the active minor correction 2.

Considering the overbought reading on the daily Stochastic indicator - CAD/JPY can be expected to fall further in the direction of the next sell target at the support level 86.00.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11802

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bears started wave [ii]
12/21/2016

We’ve got a bearish impulse in wave , so bulls are likely going to deliver wave [ii] in the short term. The main intraday target is 2/8 MM Level. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have another downward impulse, which could be wave [iii].

As we can see on the one-hour chart, wave (v) of has been ended on 5/8 MM Level, which was a departure point for wave (a). Therefore, we’re likely going to have bullish wave [ii]. If the price doesn’t break 6/8 MM Level, bears will probably try to return into the market.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11803

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD & USD GDP Q3 2017: A sideways range in place
12/22/2016

Today at 13:30 GMT will be released the third quarter’s GDP reading in the United States, which is expected to see an increase to 3.3% from 3.2% for Q3. The data comes in with a better-than-expected reading on last quarter, as business investments increased, which provided a clear vision of how’s performing the national economy and it’s expected that, after recent data, the number comes in positive for Q3.

Our technical analysis for EUR/USD at H1 chart is showing that the pair is confined into a sideways structure. Currently, it’s hovering around 50 SMA and it can re-test the resistance zone of 1.0476, where a breakout should open the doors to test the 1.0533 level. However, with the pair plummeting below 1.0397, it can touch the level of 1.0351.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11804

 

[riki143]

Morning brief for December 22
12/22/2016

“It’s beginning to look a lot like Christmas”, everywhere we go. That’s what can be said about financial markets these days. Take a look at the Volatility index, it slumped to 10.90 overnight. Most currencies little changed from yesterday.

EUR/USD moved higher to 1.0435. Last night the private sector deal to bailout Italy’s Monte dei Paschi de Siena bank failed to materialize. The good thing is that Italy’s Parliament approved a financial bank support package to rescue country’s banking system (canny move from the side of government; everybody becomes generous in the countdown to catholic Christmas eve). Plenty of the US data is coming up later today – quarterly GDP, durable goods orders, initial jobless claims. It definitely doesn’t look like Christmas, more like everyday work.

USD/JPY is trading along the 117.57 level. We don’t expect ground-shaking events/news flows from Japan today. So, we see more corrective movements going forward unless US data manages to fuel a snail’s pace of quotes.

AUD/USD retreated to 0.7230 from yesterday’s high at 0.7280. Kiwi edged up to 0.6895 having topped to 0.6920 prior the New Zealand’s data flow. Earlier today we got the 3rd quarter GDP from New Zealand. The reading was strong, but a revision to Q2 rained on the parade.

USD/CAD remains its bullish momentum. The pair rose above 1.3430 level, and it seems like it is not going to stop there. Today’s focus will be on Canadian CPI, core retail sales and retail sales. Consensus forecasts don’t hold forth a hope for the CAD recovery.

Brent oil futures slumped to $54.30 overnight as we got a report showing an increase in the US crude inventories. Libya is going to boost oil production over the upcoming months. So, oil prices will unlikely offer support to the weakening Canadian dollar.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11805

 

[riki143]

Gold got into the clutches of bears
12/22/2016

On the daily chart of gold, quotes came closer to the support at $1,116 (78.6% Fibonacci level of the last upward wave). A successful test of this level followed by the breach of $1,080 mark (88.6%) can lead to the restoration of the long-term downtrend. It seems that while the precious metal is below $1,171, "bears" will be remaining control over the market.

On the hourly chart of gold, after the reversal Bat pattern had been formed, quotes returned to the support at $1,127. Most likely, the precious metal will continue to consolidate in the range of $1,120-1,145.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11806

 

[riki143]

USD/CHF: franc fulfilled the target
12/22/2016

On the USD/CHF daily chart, "bulls" managed to fulfill the 1.0270 target on longs formed from the 1.0120 level. At the present moment, the pair is going through the period of consolidation. Update of the December peak can lead to the continuation of the rally towards 1.0370 and 1.0490. The nearest support is located near 1.02-1.0230 levels.

On the USD/CHF hourly chart, the triangle was formed. A successful test of its upper boundary, followed by the test of 1.0325 resistance will allow the "bulls" to restore the upward trend. In contrast, a breakout of the support at 1,023 will be a signal for the development of the correction.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11807

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: Euro corrected in a Cloud direction[/B}
12/22/2016

Technical levels: support – 1.0380, 1.0410; resistance – 1.0450, 1.0470.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 1.0470; SL — 1.0490; TP1 — 1.0380; TP2 – 1.0340.

Reason: bearish Ichimoku Cloud and horizontal lines of the Ichimoku Indicator; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; strong resistance of Senkou Span A.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11808

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: consolidation on Tenkan-sen
12/22/2016

Technical levels: support – 1.2350; resistance – 1.2390, 1.2410.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 1.2390; SL — 1.2410; TP1 — 1.2320; TP2 — 1.2300.

Reason: bearish character of Ichimoku Cloud, falling Senkou Span A; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; falling Tenkan-sen; the prices are inside of the channel of Tenkan-Kijun.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11809

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "Flag" pushing the market lower
12/22/2016

The price is consolidating under a resistance at 1.0461. Considering the main downtrend, the market is likely going to decline towards a support at 1.0340 in the short term. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have another upward movement.

We’ve got a “V-Bottom”, so there’s a flat, which is taking place under the 55 Moving Average. In this case, the pair is likely going to reach a support at 1.0365 – 1.0351 in the short term. However, if we see a pullback from this area, bulls will probably try to test the 55 Moving Average once again.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11810

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: bears going to deliver a new low
12/22/2016

The price faced a support at 1.2309, so we’ve got a “V-Bottom” pattern. At the same time, we’ve got a bearish “Pennant”, so the market is likely going to decline towards the nearest support at 1.2309 - 1.2270. If a pullback from these levels happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have another bullish movement.

We’ve got a consolidation, which is taking place between the 34 Moving Average and the closest support at 1.2309. Also, there’s a “Flag” pattern, so the pair is likely going to achieve a support at 1.2270. Considering a possible pullback from this level, there’s an option to have an upward movement in the direction of a resistance at 1.2358 afterwards.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11811

 

[riki143]

Key option levels for Thursday, December 22th
12/22/2016

EUR/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 42 415 ? + 20 124 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.0480; 1.0521; 1.0539; 1.0577/93
Closest support levels 1.0424; 1.0403; 1.0375; 1.0358/40
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.0424, with target points at 1.0403 and 1.0375
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.0480 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.0521 and 1.0539

GBP/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 225 ? + 112 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.2426; 1.2460; 1.2483; 1.2511
Closest support levels 1.2334(17?); 1.2295; 1.2268; 1.2237
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short GBP/USD below 1.2334, with target points at 1.2295 and 1.2268
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.2426 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.2460 and 1.2483

USD/CAD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Bullish
Changes in the open interest - 34 ? + 144 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.3444; 1.3488; 1.3550; 1.3624
Closest support levels 1.3383; 1.3356; 1.3328; 1.3282
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short USD/CAD below 1.3383, with the target points at 1.3356 and 1.3328
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.3444 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.3488 and 1.3550

More:
[URL =https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11814]https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11814[/URL]

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: bulls going to run out of flat
12/22/2016

There’s an “Engulfing” at the local low. If this pattern confirms, the price is likely going to test the upper “Window” once again. As we can see on the Daily chart, there isn’t any reversal pattern so far. In this case, bulls are likely going to deliver a new local high.

We’ve got a “Tweezers” and a “Harami” at the last low, which both have been confirmed. Also, the middle of the last white candle is acting as a support. So, the pair is likely going to test the nearest Moving Averages. If we see a pullback from these lines, there’ll be an opportunity to have another bullish rally.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11816