Market news and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

NZD/JPY reversed from resistance area
12/19/2016

NZD/JPY reversed from resistance area
Next sell targets –81.00 and 80.00
NZD/JPY continues to fall – after the pair earlier reversed down from the resistance area lying between the major resistance level 83.30 (which stopped the previous waves 4 and (4) and which was set as the buy target in our earlier forecast for this currency pair), upper weekly Bollinger Band and the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the previous downward impulse from April of 2015.

The downward reversal from this resistance area created the strong weekly Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Falling Star. NZD/JPY is expected to fall further to the next sell targets at the support levels 81.00 and 80.00.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11768

 

[riki143]

EUR/AUD reversed from support zone
12/19/2016

EUR/AUD reversed from support zone
Next buy target - 1.4470
EUR/AUD continues to rise after the recent sharp upward reversal from the support zone lying between the powerful support level 1.4130 (which reversed the price multiple times from October, as can be seen below) and the lower daily Bollinger Band. The upward reversal from this support zone stopped the earlier minor impulse wave 3, which belongs to the intermediate impulse wave (C) from May.

EUR/AUD is expected to rise further to the next buy target at the resistance level 1.4470 (top of the previous waves (a) and (ii)) - which stands close to the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp downward impulse from September.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11769

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: "Inverted Hammer" pushing price higher
12/19/2016

The upward “Window” acted as a resistance, so we’ve got a “Shooting Star”, which has been confirmed enough. At the same time, we’ve got a “Harami” on the nearest Moving Average line. Therefore, the market is likely going to test the “Window” once again. As we can see on the Daily chart, we’ve got a “Harami” and a “High Wave” on the last high. If these patterns finally confirm, there’ll be an opportunity to have a bearish correction.

The pair is declining, but we’ve got an “Inverted Hammer”. In this case, bulls are likely going to deliver an upward price movement. So, the nearest “Window” could be tested once again.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11770

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY ahead of BoJ meeting (December): A corrective move could start soon?
12/20/2016

Today will be released the BoJ’s interest rate decision and no major surprises are expected from the central bank, as they keep untouched the monetary policy during November’s meeting. Currently, investors will be looking into what will be said during the press conference by officials, as the BoJ had been postponing their inflation target’s deadline and Governor’s Kuroda could bring some hints about which would be tools and how long it will take to battle the deflation in Japan.

Our technical analysis for USD/JPY at daily chart remains strongly bullish, but we got a strong sellers’ reaction around 118.19. Ahead of the meeting, the pair could be preparing the ground to receive the news with a bearish correction, favoring the bullish momentum in the Japanese currency. If that happens, we can expect a decline to test the support area of 115.54. If the BoJ’s rhetoric is dovish, then the pair will look to reach the 120.00 handle.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11771

 

[riki143]

EUR/GBP: rivals are preparing for Christmas
12/20/2016

On the EUR/GBP daily chart, there is a consolidation in a range of 0.8345-0.8445. A breakout of its lower boundary can lead to the restoration of the downtrend towards the 161.8% target in the "Crab" pattern (0.763). In contrast, a successful test of the resistance will create prerequisites for the development of the correction towards 0.873.

On the EUR/GBP hourly chart, a pullback of prices towards 0.8445 allowed us to open short positions. If the "bears" manage to test the nearest diagonal support and activate the "Shark" pattern, the pair may fall towards the support at 0.8345.

Recommendations: keep holding shorts formed from the 0,856 and 0,8445 levels.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11772

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: yen fulfilled targets
12/20/2016

On the USD/JPY daily chart, prices reached 118.4-118.9 convergence zone (78.6% Fibonacci retracement level formed from the last downward wave + 161.8% target in the "Crab" pattern). This allowed traders to close long positions formed from 114.75 and 115.8 levels. The next support levels are located near the 116.1 and 114.7 marks.

On the USD/JPY hourly chart, quotes are moving within the upward trading channel which means that they maintain their control over the market. There can be a consolidation in the range of 116.1-118.35 levels. A successful test of its upper boundary can attract buyers.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11773

 

[riki143]

Morning brief for December 20
12/20/2016

USD/JPY almost hit 117.60 as the BOJ left its loosening policy unchanged. The bank maintained its short-term interest rate target at -0.1%, its 10-year JGB target at around 0% and committed itself to continue buying JGBs at the annual pace of 80tln yen. The Fed's Chairwoman Janet Yellen delivered a speech yesterday at the University of Baltimore. She painted a rather bright future for the US job market, pointing out at a rather steady job creation, a low payoff rate and increased number of job openings.

EUR/USD slumped to 1.0390 as market were struck by the crash in Berlin on Monday. A truck rammed into a Christmas market killing 12 people and injuring many others. After the overnight shock, the euro managed to recover to 1.0400 earlier this morning. The euro will probably continue its downward movement vs. USD as European markets don’t stop fretting about Italy’s banking system. Yesterday we got Germany’s December Ifo Survey for December that was rather solid. It seems that Eurozone’s largest economy is picking up economic momentum, while other less developed European countries still struggle to fight the recession.

AUD/USD slumped to 0.7240 overnight due to a new rising tide of interest in the US dollar and falling commodity prices (the copper and other base metals). Earlier this morning we got the RBA’s Minutes from December board’s meeting, but they failed to become a market trigger.

NZD/USD continues its downward movement on the strengthening of the US dollar. Later today we will receive GDT price index and trade balance data from New Zealand that may offer support to Kiwi.

USD/CAD rose above 1.3405 on the session due to the upbringing news flows from the US and falling oil prices. Brent crude oil futures slipped 0.2% to $54.80.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11774

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bearish "Flag" pushing market lower
2/20/2016

The price is consolidating under a resistance at 1.0461. Also, there’s a “Flag” pattern, so the market is likely going to decline towards a support at 1.0340 – 1.0300. If a pullback from this area happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have another bullish rally in the direction of the nearest resistance at 1.0419 – 1.0461.

The last “Flag” pattern has been broken. Therefore, the price is likely going to continue falling down during the day. In this case, we should keep an eye on the closest support at 1.0340 – 1.0300 as a possible intraday target. However, if we see a pullback from these levels, bulls will probably try to deliver an upward correction.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11776

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: "Triple Top" led to decline
12/20/2016

The price is consolidating between a resistance at 1.2498 and a support at 1.2309. Considering the previously formed “Wedge” pattern, the market is likely going to decline towards a support at 1.2358 – 1.2309 in the short term. Meanwhile, if a pullback from this area happens, there’ll be an option to have a bullish correction.

We’ve got a “Triple Top”, which has been confirmed. Also, there’s a “Pennant” pattern as well. So, the pair is likely going to test the nearest support at 1.2309. If bears be stopped here, then bulls will have an opportunity to push the price in the direction of the nearest resistance at 1.2384.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11777

 

[riki143]

Key option levels for Tuesday, December 20th
12/20/2016

EUR/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Neutral
Changes in the open interest - 4 531 252 ? - 3 298 917 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.0462; 1.0511; 1.0532; 1.0589
Closest support levels 1.0402; 1.0318(37?); 1.0274 (critical); 1.0221
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.0402, with target points at 1.0337/18 and 1.0274
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.0462 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.0511 and 1.0532

GBP/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Bearish
Changes in the open interest + 111 ? + 119 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.2474; 1.2503; 1.2523; 1.2546
Closest support levels 1.2374; 1.2355; 1.2332; 1.2305
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short GBP/USD below 1.2374, with target points at 1.2355 and 1.2332
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.2474 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.2503 and 1.2523

USD/CAD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Bullish
Changes in the open interest + 117 ? + 240 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.3419; 1.3464; 1.3508; 1.3567
Closest support levels 1.3383; 1.3348; 1.3316; 1.3270
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long USD/CAD above 1.3419, with the target points at 1.3464 and 1.3508
Alternative scenario Moving below 1.3383 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.3348 and 1.3316

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11778

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bears going to deliver wave iii of (iii)
12/20/2016

The price has been declining since wave 2 ended like a flat pattern. Therefore, wave [iii] of 3 is likely going to be continued in the short term. The main intraday target is -1/8 MM Level, which could be a departure point for an upward correction.

As we can see on the M30 chart, we’ve got a double zigzag in wave (ii). So, there’s an opportunity to have an extension in wave iii. If the price finds a lodgement under 0/8 MM Level, bears will be free to push the market even lower.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11781

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "Tweezers" points to local correction
12/20/2016

We’ve got a “Tower” and a “Tweezers”, which both have been confirmed enough, so the market is likely continue falling down in the short term. As we can see on the Daily chart, there isn’t any reversal pattern so far. In this case, we’re likely going to have a new low soon.

There’s a “Three Methods” pattern, but also we’ve got a “Tweezers” at the local low. Therefore, there’s an opportunity to have an upward correction. If any bearish pattern arrives afterwards, the price is likely going to decline.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11782

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: bearish "Harami"
12/20/2016

We’ve got a bullish “Harami”, which has been confirmed, so the price is likely going to test the nearest resistance once again. If we see any bearish patter on the upper “Window”, there’ll be an opportunity to have a bearish correction. As we can see on the Daily chart, here’s a possible “Three Methods”, so the last high could be tested again.

There’s a “Harami”, which led to the current upward movement. However, we’ve got a “Tweezers” at the local high, which has been confirmed. So, the market is likely going to test the 34 Moving Average, which could be a departure point for another bullish movement.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11783

 

[riki143]

AUD/USD reached sell targets 0.7300 and 0.7260
12/20/2016

AUD/USD reached sell targets 0.7300 and 0.7260
Next sell target – 0.7150
AUD/USD continues to fall after the earlier breakout of the support zone lying between support levels 0.7300 and 0.7260 – both of which were set as the sell targets in our previous forecast for this currency pair. The breakout of this support zone accelerated the active minor impulse wave 3, which belongs to the intermediate impulse wave (3) from the start of November.

AUD/USD is expected to continue to fall in the direction of the next sell target at the key support level 0.7150 (which stopped the previous intermediate impulse wave (1) in May, as can be seen below).

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11784

 

[riki143]

NZD/USD broke pivotal support level 0.6990
12/20/206

NZD/USD broke pivotal support level 0.6990
Next sell target - 0.6850
NZD/USD continues to fall inside the minor impulse wave 3, which earlier broke through the pivotal support level 0.6990, which has been steadily reversing this currency pair from June, as can be seen below. The breakout of the support level 0.6990 coincided with the breakout of the 61.8% Fibonacci correction level of the previous sharp upward impulse from May.

NZD/USD is expected to fall in the accelerated impulse wave 3 (which belongs to the intermediate impulse wave (3) from the start of November) in the direction of the next sell target at the support level 0.6850.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/analytics/11785

 

[riki143]

NZD/USD & NZ GDP Q3 2017: a bottom before the new year eve?
12/21/2016

Today at 21:45 GMT will be released the New Zealand GDP for the third quarter and current consensus call for an unchanged number of 0.9%, while by another hand, it can see a very slightly increase to 3.7% from 3.6% in a yearly-basis. Latest data showed a number that was close to meet the expectations, as the NZ’s economy grew 0.9% and overall figures are a clear proof that the RBNZ won’t cut interest rates soon and we’ll see if data continues to be positive at the end of the year.

Our current outlook for NZD/USD at the daily chart is showing a very weak structure which favors to more downside across the board, as the pair is well consolidated below the 200 SMA. Currently, ti’s facing off a strong support around 0.6915, where a breakout lower should expose the 0.6837 level, adding more strength to the overall bias. In the positive scenario, a rebound at the current stage could take the pair to visit the resistance zone of 0.7021 in coming weeks.

More"
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11786

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bulls are going to recoup their losses
12/21/2016

On the EUR/USD daily chart, the bears failed to test the support at 1.0387 (113% Fibonacci level formed from XA wave of the "Crab" pattern). If it is tested, the prices move lower towards 1.023, 1.0115 and 0.985 levels. In contrast, if "bears" fail to consolidate below this important level, it will be a signal for a correction.

On the EUR/USD hourly chart, there is a formation of the expanding wedge pattern. If quotes go beyond the descending trading channel and break the resistance at 1.0475, the rally will continue towards 1.0550 and 1.0610.

Recommendation:BUY 1,0475 SL 1,042 TP1 1,055 TP2 1,061.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11787

 

[riki143]

USD/CAD: Loonie fulfilled the target
12/21/2016

On the USD/CAD daily chart, target at 1.3395 has been fulfilled. If the "bulls" manage to update the December peak, the rally towards the upper boundary of the upward trading channel will continue. If prices drop below the support at 1.3306, it will be a signal for the start of the "bearish" counterattack.

On USD/CAD hourly chart, there is a final stage of formation of the 5-0 pattern. If prices return to the 50% Fibo level formed from the CD wave, it will be a signal for opening short positions. Alternatively, a breakout of the resistance located at 1,353 level will allow us to buy the US dollar.

Recommendation:

SELL 1,3335 SL 1,339 TP1 1,32 TP2 1,308,

BUY 1,353 SL 1,3475 TP1 1,37 TP2 1,3835.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11788

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: downtrend may continue
12/21/2016

Technical levels: support – 1.0380; resistance – 1.0415, 1.0450.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 1.0400; SL — 1.0420; TP1 — 1.0300; TP2 – 1.0260.

Reason: bearish Ichimoku Cloud and falling Senkou Span A; a dead cross of falling Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; strong resistance of Tenkan-sen.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11789

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: correction to Tenkan-sen
12/21/2016

Technical levels: support – 1.2360; resistance – 1.2390.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 1.2390; SL — 1.2410; TP1 — 1.2320; TP2 — 1.2300.

Reason: bearish character of Ichimoku Cloud, falling Senkou Span A; a dead cross of falling Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are in the correction to Tenkan-sen; canceling the market’s oversold.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11790