Market news and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

USD/CAD reached buy target 1.3500
12/23/2016

USD/CAD reached buy target 1.3500
Next buy target - 1.3590
USD/CAD continues to rise after the price earlier broke through the resistance level 1.3500, which was set as the buy target in our previous forecast for this currency pair. The breakout of this resistance level continues the active intermediate impulse wave (3) from the middle of December.

With the accelerating daily Momentum - USD/CAD can be expected to rise further in the direction of the next buy target at the pivotal resistance level 1.3590 (which stopped the previous intermediate impulse wave (1) in the middle of November, as can be seen below).

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11836

 

[riki143]

Key option levels for Monday, December 26th
12/25/2016

* Data about changes in the open interest will be available on Monday after 12:00 CT (Central Time)

EUR/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 13 411 ↑ + 43 770 ↑
Closest resistance levels 1.0499; 1.0537; 1.0554; 1.0576
Closest support levels 1.0440; 1.0419; 1.0390; 1.0372
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.0440, with target points at 1.0419 and 1.0390
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.0499 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.0537 and 1.0554

GBP/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Bearish
Changes in the open interest - 3 ↓ - 4 ↓
Closest resistance levels 1.2336; 1.2366; 1.2387; 1.2413
Closest support levels 1.2278; 1.2254; 1.2236; 1.2212
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short GBP/USD below 1.2278, with target points at 1.2254 and 1.2236
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.2336 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.2366 and 1.2387

USD/CAD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Bullish
Changes in the open interest + 730 ↑ + 45 ↑
Closest resistance levels 1.3543; 1.3563; 1.3600; 1.3654
Closest support levels 1.3501; 1.3477; 1.3439; 1.3385
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long USD/CAD above 1.3543, with the target points at 1.3563 and 1.3600
Alternative scenario Moving below 1.3501 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.3477 and 1.3439

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11837

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: pound is led by the patterns
12/26/2016

On the GBP/USD daily chart, after quotes went beyond the descending trading channel the "bears" regained control over the market. The "Crab" pattern with its 113% and 127.2% intermediate targets is relevant at the present moment. We may expect the development of the correction wave from the December low located at the 1,215 level.

On the GBP/USD hourly chart, there is a formation of the CD wave of the "Shark" pattern. A breakout of the December low can lead to the downfall of quotes towards 1,215 (88.6%). Also, there might be a correction from the current levels towards 1.2357, 1.2441 and 1.2509.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11838

 

[riki143]

EUR/GBP: bulls launched a counterattack
12/26/2016

On the EUR/GBP daily chart, the "bears" failed to update the December minimum. "Bulls" launched a counterattack. If they manage to test the resistance at 0.8565, an activation of the "Bat" pattern will increase the risks of the continuation of the rally towards 0.9. The 0.873 and 0.8865 marks can serve as intermediate targets. Restoration of the downtrend is possible if quotes manage to return to 0.832.

On the EUR/GBP hourly chart, there is a rather steady uptrend. The further movement of the pair will depend on the test of the resistance at 0.8545.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11839

 

[riki143]

Morning brief report for December 26
12/26/2016

Markets are still half asleep as their participants celebrate Christmas.

EUR/USD is trading near the level of 1.0460. The euro managed to regain some of its losses on Friday mainly due to the weakening of the US dollar. USD slipped some points as investors took profits in the run-up to the Christmas holidays. US 10-year bond yields dipped following the Friday’s release of the US economic indicators (the household income data was not upbeat). The US dollar should not fall lower, as it remains to be well-supported thanks to the anticipation of a faster pace of the benchmark increases under Trump’s presidency.

USD/JPY fell to 116.95 on the weakening of the greenback. Today’s trading will be subdued as stock markets, precious/base metals options are shut for the Christmas holiday. European and American banks are closed as well. So, the yen may strengthen further in relation to the US currency snatching at a chance in the period of the US markets’ lull.

AUD/USD managed to recover on Monday after falling to 0.7160 following the news stating that Chinese President Xi Jinping was open to the deceleration in the economic growth of China. Aussie remains vulnerable to the price fluctuations in the commodity market and news flows from China.

GBP/USD edged down to 1.2265. The pound remains under pressure of uncertainty over the Brexit process.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11840

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bearish "Thorn"
12/26/2016

We’ve got a “Double Bottom”, which has been confirmed, so the price is consolidating. Considering the main downtrend, the market is likely going to test a support at 1.0419. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have a bullish price movement towards a resistance at 1.0506.

There’s a “Thorn”, so bears are likely going to achieve a support at 1.0419. However, if we have a pullback from this level, bulls will probably try to reach the nearest resistance at 1.0478 – 1.0506.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11841

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: support waiting for bears
12/26/2016

The price faced a support at 1.2270, so the price is consolidating. If we have any reversal pattern, the market is likely going to reach a support at 1.2227 – 1.2205. Considering a possible pullback from this area, there’s a chance to have an upward correction afterwards.

We’ve got a “V-Bottom”, so the price reached the 34 Moving Average, which led to the current consolidation. In this case, we should keep an eye on the nearest support at 1.2227 – 1.2205 as a possible bearish target. Meanwhile, if we see a pullback from these levels, there’ll be an option to have a correction in the direction of the next resistance at 1.2309 – 1.2385.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11843

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: wave [ii] going to end on 2/8 MM Level
12/26/2016

The last pullback from 1/8 MM Level led to an upward correction, so we have wave [ii], which is taking place on the four-hours chart. Previously a bearish impulse in wave has been formed. The main intraday target is 2/8 MM Level, which could be a departure point for another decline in wave [iii].

As we can see on the one-hour chart, wave (b) is taking form of a double zigzag. Therefore, bulls are likely going to deliver wave (c) of [ii] in the short term. If we see another pullback from 6/8 MM Level, there’ll be an opportunity to have a bearish impulse.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11845

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bears relaxing in a flat
12/26/2016

We’ve got a “Shooting Star”, but a confirmation of this pattern is a quite weak. So, the nearest “Three Methods” is likely going to act as a support. As we can see on the Daily chart, here’s a “High Wave”, so bulls will probably try to move on.

The price is still consolidating on the one-hour chart. Also, the 89 Moving Average is acting as a resistance, so we’ve got an “Engulfing” pattern. In this case, the pair is likely going to continue moving up and down in a flat range.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11846

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: correction on the way
12/26/2016

The last “Engulfing” pattern is still on the table, so the market is likely going to test the 34 Moving Average, which could be a departure point for another bullish rally. As we can see on the Daily chart, there’re a “High Wave” and a “Harami” at the local high, which both led to the current decline. However, if we see any bullish pattern, there’ll be an opportunity to have a new high.

The price has reached the middle of the last huge white candle. However, there isn’t any reversal pattern so far. Therefore, the pair is likely going to continue falling down until any bullish pattern arrives.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11847

 

[riki143]

CAD/CHF falling inside minor (c)-wave
12/26/2016

CAD/CHF falling inside minor (c)-wave
Next sell target - 0.7500
CAD/CHF has been falling sharply in the last few trading sessions inside the (c)-wave of the minor ABC correction 2, which started earlier from the resistance zone surrounding the long-term resistance level 0.7740 (which also recently reversed the previous intermediate (A)-wave in April, as can be seen below). The resistance zone near the resistance level 0.7740 was further strengthened by the upper daily Bollinger Band.

CAD/CHF is expected to fall further in the direction of the next sell target at the support level 0.7500 (intersecting with the 38.2% Fibonacci correction level of the previous sharp upward impulse wave 1 from the start of November).

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11848

 

[riki143]

AUD/NZD reversed from resistance zone
12/26/2016

AUD/NZD reversed from resistance zone
Next sell target - 1.0375
AUD/NZD continues to fall after the recent downward reversal from the resistance zone lying between the resistance level 1.0500 and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp downward impulse 1 from the middle of October. The downward reversal from this resistance zone accelerated the active minor impulse wave 3, which belongs to the intermediate impulse wave (3) from the middle of October.

AUD/NZD is expected to fall further in the direction of the next sell target at the next support level 1.0375, which reversed the previous sharp minor impulse wave 1 in November, as can be seen below.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11849

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD ahead of CB Consumer Confidence (December): nothing major is expected
12/27/2016

After Christmas holidays, we’ll have today at 15:00 GMT the CB Consumer Confidence’s data for December, which is expected to see an increase to 108.5 from 107.1 (November). If we notice a good number that could tell us further consumer spending’s increase is coming, we can see some volatile moves in the US Dollar-related pairs, despite low volumes of trading ahead of New Year’s eve, while a weak data should fuel to the bears in USD across the board.

Our technical analysis for EUR/USD at H1 chart is still showing a very sideways’ picture around 200 SMA and the support zone of 1.0431 is helping the bulls to remain alive in the battle, before the end of the year. If the pair plunges below that area, the next key interest area to the downside should be the 1.0397 and that scenario will happen if the number comes above the expectations. However, if EUR/USD breaks above the 1.0476 zone, then it can test the 1.0517 level.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11850

 

[riki143]

EUR/JPY: bulls are launching the attack
12/27/2016

On the EUR/JPY daily chart, quotes are moving within the upward trading channel. The "bulls" remain their control over the pair heading into the convergence zone. There is 113% target in the "Butterfly" pattern. A successful test of the resistance at 123.4 can lead to the continuation of the rally towards 125,3-125,8 (50% Fibo level from the last downward wave - 127.2% target in the "Butterfly" pattern).

Recommendation: BUY 123,16 SL 122,61 TP1 124,8 TP2 125,8.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11851

 

[riki143]

AUD/CAD: nobody wanted to surrender
12/27/2016

On the AUD/CAD daily chart, there is a desperate battle for the important level located at 0.973 (61.8% Fibonacci level from the last upward wave). If "bears" win, the update of the December minimum can send quotes lower towards 0.941. There is 88.6% target in the "Shark" pattern. A breakout of the upper boundary of the 0,9675-0,976 consolidation range will allow the "bulls" to develop correction towards 0.986.

On the AUD/CAD hourly chart, there is a formation of the expanding wedge reversal pattern. A return of quotes towards the resistance at 0.976 will create the prerequisites for a correction.

Recommendations:

BUY 0,976 SL 0,9705 TP 0,986,

SELL 0,9685 SL 0,974 TP 0,941.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11852

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: bulls play cat-and-mouse
12/27/2016

On the USD/JPY daily chart, there is a consolidation in the range of 116,6-118,4 - within the medium-term uptrend. An update of the December peak will create prerequisites for the continuation of the rally towards 120.85. The nearest support levels are located near the 116.1 and 114.7 levels.

On the USD/JPY hourly chart, there is a formation of the "Splash and shelf" on the base of 1-2-3. A successful test of the upper boundary can lead to the continuation of the rally.

Recommendations:

BUY 118,35 SL 117,8 TP 120,85,

BUY 116,1 SL 115,55 TP 117,8.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11853

 

[riki143]

Brent: the Gartley pattern will show the
12/27/2016

On the daily chart of the Brent crude oil futures, quotes move within the upward trading channel.The bulls remain control over the pair. To change the trend an expanding wedge pattern should be realized - to send prices lower towards $42.7. At the present moment, however, this scenario cannot be realized. So, we would recommend you to buy on the rollbacks or on the breakouts of the resistances.

On the hourly chart of Brent oil futures, there is a "Gartley" pattern. A rebound from its 78.6% target will increase the risks of the continuation of the consolidation in the $53,2-57,2 range. A breakout will create prerequisites for the continuation of the rally towards $60.5 per barrel.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11854

 

[riki143]

Morning brief for December 27
12/27/2017

Financial markets are still sleeping with Christmas carols. Trading should be thin this week as the market participants are closing out 2016 volatile year.

EUR/USD slid down to 1.0430 in the early hours of the Asian session as 10-year US Treasury yields extended their gains having partially recovered their yesterday’s losses. Italy is struggling with its banking crisis. ECB told Monte dei Paischi that it needs 8.8 bln euros to plug its capital shortfall. Earlier Italy’s government received the Parliament’s support for the bank’s bailout when private investors had refused to take its losses.

USD/JPY popped up earlier this morning as we got a miss in Japan’s core consumer prices and household spending. The data indicated that Japan’s economy lacks of a significant boost to strike the BoJ’s egregious 2% inflation rate target. Core consumer prices fell at their fastest pace in nearly 4 years showing that fighting deflation is not as easy-peasy as Shinzo Abe thought it would be in 2012. The further movement of the pair should be subdued as the end of 2016 is just several days away. The upper border of Ichimoku cloud on the H4 timeframe is holding the yen’s pace. The pair may rise later today if the US releases will be above market’s expectations.

GBP/USD made a baby step lower and then glued to the 1.2270 level. The US CB consumer confidence might send the prices a bit lower towards the nearest support at 1.2490.

Aussie and Kiwi retraced on the strengthening of the US dollar. USD/CAD dropped to 1.3470 overnight on the surging oil prices. Brent oil futures jumped to $55.86 on Tuesday as we approach to the actual OPEC and non-OPEC producers’ output cuts.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11855

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: Euro entered into the Cloud
12/27/2016

Technical levels: support – 1.0380, 1.0425; resistance – 1.0460, 1.0515.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 1.0420; SL — 1.0440; TP1 — 1.0340; TP2 – 1.0310.

Reason: bearish Ichimoku Cloud, but the lines of the Ichimoku Indicator are horizontal; a weak golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; strong resistance on 1.0460.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11857

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: consolidation in Tenkan-Kijun’s channel
12/27/2016

Technical levels: support – 1.2260, 1.2230; resistance – 1.2310.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 1.2310; SL — 1.2330; TP1 — 1.2260; TP2 — 1.2230.

Reason: bearish Ichimoku Cloud, horizontal Senkou Span A and B; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are in the channel of Tenkan-Kijun and on support of Tenkan-sen.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/11858