HFMarkets (hfm.com): New market analysis services.

[HFM]

Date: 29th October 2025.

NASDAQ Forecast: Earnings And Market Drivers.

The NASDAQ climbed to a new all-time high on Tuesday and surpassed the DAX for the first time in 2025. The NASDAQ is now the second best-performing index of the year so far, behind the Nikkei225 and slightly ahead of the German DAX. The bullish price movement gathered momentum after NVIDIA’s CEO expressed optimism about the artificial intelligence (AI) and Technology sectors.

The trend was also fuelled by expectations of easing US–China trade tensions. Optimism grew further ahead of major quarterly earnings reports from leading technology companies.

Market participants are focusing on the quarterly earnings reports from the ‘Magnificent-Seven’. After the market closes, Microsoft, Alphabet and Meta will all release theirearnings reports. The most influential report will be from Microsoft and Alphabet due to holding a higher weight. Together, the three companies hold a weight of 25%.

• Microsoft - Rose +1.98% on Tuesday - Earnings Per Share Prediction = $3.65
• Alphabet - Fell .67% on Tuesday - Earnings Per Share Prediction = $2.26
• Meta - Rose +0.08% on Tuesday - Earnings Per Share Prediction = $6.61

If all three companies exceed expectations and provide upbeat guidance for the next quarter, the NASDAQ is likely to maintain its bullish momentum. Lastly, on Thursday investors will shift their attention to earnings reports from Apple and Amazon, which are also part of the ‘Magnificent-Seven’.

One of the reasons why Microsoft has seen stronger gains over the past 24 hours is the new agreement with OpenAI. The new agreement allows the ChatGPT creator to shift from its non-profit origins and prepare for a potential IPO to fund Sam Altman’s ambitious AI and data centre plans. Under the new structure, OpenAI will operate as a public benefit corporation still overseen by a nonprofit. Altman stated that an IPO is the most likely route to raise the funds needed for advanced AI development.

Microsoft stocks are also rising a further 0.50% during this morning’s pre-market trading session.

Investor sentiment has improved significantly with President Trump’s Asia tour, his agreement with China, and the upcoming meeting with President Xi. However, another key price driver has been NASDAQ’s most influential stock: NVIDIA. NVIDIA’s CEO, Jensen Huang, told journalists that he has no concerns about an artificial intelligence (AI) bubble.

Mr Huang stated that NVIDIA's latest chips remain strong and on schedule. He also revealed that, due to US export controls, NVIDIA’s market share in China has dropped from 95% to effectively zero, remarking ‘we are 100 % out of China.’

NVIDIA’s stocks rose 4.98% on Tuesday and have since gained a further 1.69% during this morning’s Asian Session. NVIDIA is due to release its quarterly earnings report on 19 November after the market closes. The stock has risen 45% so far in 2025.

Investors are focused on tonight’s US Federal Reserve meeting, where a 25-basis-point rate cut from 4.25% to 4.00% is widely expected to support a cooling labour market. With inflation steady at 3.0%, the Fed has room to ease policy, although uncertainty remains due to limited economic data. Markets will also watch for signals of another potential rate cut later this year and in January.

NASDAQ Daily Chart


The NASDAQ continues to form higher highs and higher lows following the classic bullish trend pattern. The index is also trading above the main trendlines as well as above the day’s volume-weighted average price (VWAP). Most momentum-based indicators continue to point towards further upward price movement.

However, investors should also be aware of the risks associated with the prices trading at all-time highs as well as a potential change in sentiment if earnings reports fail to meet expectations. A decline of more than 5% would suggest that the upward trend may be at risk.

• NASDAQ hits a new all-time high, surpassing the DAX and becoming 2025’s second-best-performing index behind the Nikkei 225.
• Tech optimism surges after NVIDIA’s CEO dismisses AI bubble fears, while Microsoft and OpenAI announce a major restructuring deal.
• Focus shifts to ‘Magnificent Seven’ earnings, with Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta expected to drive short-term NASDAQ momentum.
• The Federal Reserve meeting remains in focus, with a 25-basis-point rate cut expected and investors watching for signals of further easing.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

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Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 30th October 2025.

Alphabet Leads Tech Gains as US–China Deal Lifts Market Sentiment.

Investors have plenty to digest this week, with volatile earnings results, interest rate cuts, and hawkish comments from central banks. The Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan have announced their interest rate decisions and held press conferences. In addition, tech giants including Alphabet, Microsoft and Meta have released their quarterly earnings reports.

Some aspects of the latest developments have been positive, while others have been negative. As a result, most asset classes have experienced mixed price movements. However, the main factor driving optimism is the trade agreement between the US and China.

US President Donald Trump’s tour of Asia which is drawing to a close. Before returning to the US, President Trump met with Chinese President Xi Jinping at Busan Airport amid heightened tensions over tariffs, TikTok, and rare earth minerals.

Political analysts have expressed optimism about the outcome of the meeting and comments made from both sides. President Xi stated that the two countries had reached an agreement to resolve ‘major trade issues.’

China has agreed to pause new rare-earth export restrictions for one year, with annual reviews planned. Trump said the issue is ‘settled’ for now, while China has also resumed purchases of US soybean, signaling a renewal in agricultural trade. Maintaining stability is now the main priority, as past periods of trade optimism have often been followed by renewed tariffs and tensions.

This development is having a positive impact on the market’s risk appetite. This is reflected in the VIX index, which is trading 1.50% lower, and the Put/Call Ratio, which has again declined towards the 0.60 level. However, technical analysts warn that if the Put/Call Ratio falls below 0.60, the stock market may experience profit-taking and resistance.

Investors had been eagerly awaiting for the earnings reports from major technology companies. In the first half of the year, the NASDAQ experienced a market decline of 26% and within six months recovered only 6-7%. The index was lagging behind Asian and European stocks with most investors suggesting that the US market required stronger bullish catalysts-potentially from earnings results.

On Wednesday, after market close, Microsoft, Alphabet and Meta released their third-quarter earnings reports. The main takeaways are as follows:

Microsoft stocks Fall 3.95% After Earnings Release-the company’s revenue and earnings per share were slightly above expectations but not enough to significantly boost demand. Microsoft’s record $35 billion AI spending raised concerns over margins, while its forecast of persistently high costs unsettled investors.

Alphabet stocks rise 6.70% After Earnings Report-the company's revenue was higher than predictions set by analysts. The Earnings per share came in 7% higher than previous forecasts.

Meta stocks fall 7.40% After Earnings Report-the company was unable to beat earnings and revenue expectations. However, the main concern for investors was that tax-related charges reduced earnings and the company warned that expenses would increase in 2026.

The standout performer was Alphabet which not only impressed with beating earnings expectations but also through user growth. Alphabet reported record quarterly revenue of $102.3 billion, up 16% year on year and above expectations, driven by growth in its Cloud and YouTube divisions. The company’s record $91–93 billion in capital spending highlights its aggressive investment in AI infrastructure.

NASDAQ (USA100) 30-Minute Chart

During the US trading session the NASDAQ experienced three major price waves on the shorter timeframes. The first when the Federal Reserve confirmed its decision to cut rates by 0.25% which triggered a brief decline. The price quickly recovered but then fell again as Jerome Powell’s press conference was more hawkish than markets had anticipated. The index later rebounded following the announcement of Alphabet’s earnings report, which drove the price to a new all-time high.

The key support level can be seen at $25,929.30 and the resistance level at $26,287.65. Although the index was unable to maintain its bullish impulse wave momentum, it has remained above key technical levels and the VWAP.

• Markets remain volatile as investors react to earnings results, rate cuts, and hawkish central bank commentary.
• The new US-China trade agreement boosts global risk appetite, easing tensions over tariffs and rare-earth exports.
• Alphabet leads technology gains with strong earnings and record AI investment, while Microsoft and Meta stocks decline.
• The NASDAQ reaches a new all-time high after Alphabet’s results, supported by optimism despite mixed market sentiment.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date: 31st October 2025.

Meta Sell-Off Drags S&P 500 Lower, Could Friday Bring a Rebound?

The US Dollar Index rose to a three-month high, while the S&P 500 struggles as investors digest the latest earnings reports. Apple and Amazon's earnings per share exceeded expectations, but will Meta’s stocks halt demand? The S&P 500 has fallen for two consecutive days despite earnings while the NASDAQ continues to show bullish trends. Earnings data supported growth on Thursday, aided by Netflix’s latest announcement.

S&P500 1-Hour Chart


Meta and Alphabet stocks were one of the key reasons why the S&P 500 fell on Thursday. During the Asian session, Alphabet’s stocks rose almost 8% providing early support for the S&P 500. However, during the European and US session the stock lost momentum and ended the day only 2.45% higher. For this reason, the alphabet’s strong earnings report had limited impact on demand even though it significantly improved sentiment.

Furthermore, Meta stocks, which fell more than 11% were the main contributors to the S&P 500 ending the day 0.35% lower. Regarding Meta, the market is struggling to absorb the level of expenses that the company is facing, particularly in relation to AI, taxes, and penalties. According to Meta’s CEO, the company is looking to significantly invest in AI and expenses in the next 2 years are likely to rise.

Overnight, Meta also announced that the company will issue $30 billion in corporate bonds to fund its expansion into AI. The stock is trading 1.20% higher during this morning’s Asian session, however, Meta’s performance will depend on whether the company can convince investors that the ‘venture’ can be successfully monetised.

Amazon is this morning’s best-performing stock after the company beat its earnings expectations. Amazon stocks, which are the 5th most influential within the S&P 500, are trading 13% higher this morning. In addition to this, Apple is also trading slightly higher (2.35%) after beating both earnings and revenue expectations. Apple’s earnings per share came in at $1.85, $0.21 higher than the same period last year.

Lastly, Netflix stocks, which have fallen more than 9% in the past month following its earnings report, are regaining momentum this morning. The stock has risen more than 3% as the company is announcing a 1-for-10 stock split to lower the stock price from $1,089 to $108. The company has stated that the move aims to make the stock more attractive to employees and retail investors. Reports also suggest that Netflix is considering acquiring Warner Bros Discovery, though this has not yet been confirmed.

The US Dollar Index has risen for three consecutive days as the Federal Reserve adopted a more hawkish tone. Investors should note that the Federal Reserve was not necessarily ‘hawkish’, the central bank remains ‘dovish’. However, the comments made were simply not as ‘dovish’ as the markets had hoped. As a result, the US Dollar Index rose higher, particularly as one of its main competitors, the Japanese Yen, fell due to monetary policy weakness.

US Dollar Index Daily Chart


Ten members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to ease monetary policy, while two opposed the move. Board member Stephen Miran supported a larger 50-basis-point cut, whereas Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey R. Schmid preferred to keep rates unchanged amid persistent inflation concerns.

Following the meeting, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell suggested the Fed may pause further policy changes in December, despite investor expectations for another rate cut before year-end. Powell noted that many FOMC members believe it is important to pause and assess economic conditions before easing further. His comments disappointed markets, and the CME FedWatch Tool now shows that the probability of a December rate cut has fallen from 90% to 67%. Therefore, a cut is still likely, but is not guaranteed as previous thought.

The US Dollar has been this week’s best-performing currency followed by the Australian Dollar. The worst performers so far are the British Pound and Japanese Yen.

• The US Dollar Index hit a three-month high as the Federal Reserve hinted at a possible policy pause in December.
• The S&P 500 fell for a second day, pressured by Meta’s 11% decline despite strong results from Apple and Amazon.
• Meta plans to issue $30 billion in bonds issuance to fund AI expansion, though investors remain sceptical about its profitability.
• Amazon surged 13% and Apple rose 2.35% after both companies beat earnings expectations.
• Netflix gained 3% after announcing a 1-for-10 stock split aimed at attracting retail investors and employees.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Michalis Efthymiou
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date: 3rd November 2025.

Global Markets Open November with Optimism Amid Key Central Bank Decisions and Data Releases.

Global markets began the week on a positive note, with investors aiming to extend October’s rally into November. As fresh central bank decisions, key employment data, and PMI data line up across major economies, traders are watching for clues on how monetary policy and global growth will shape the final stretch of 2025.

US stock futures climbed early Monday, signalling a continuation of October’s rally. S&P 500 futures gained 0.2%, Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.3%, and Dow Jones futures added 0.1%.

October was a strong month for equities, with the S&P 500 up 2.3%, the Dow rising 2.5%, and the Nasdaq Composite advancing 4.7%. Investors continued to favourgrowth and AI-linked stocks, with Big Tech and the ‘Magnificent Seven’ driving gains. Optimism also improved on signs of easing US-China trade tensions, supporting risk appetite.

Despite the upbeat start, focus remains fixed on Washington’s political deadlock. The US government shutdown, now entering its fifth week, continues to delay key economic data-including the highly anticipated US jobs report.

Meanwhile, the US Supreme Court is preparing to hear arguments on the legality of former President Trump’s tariffs, a case that could shape future trade policy.

Earnings season also remains in full swing, with nearly 300 S&P 500 companies having reported Q3 results and over 100 more-including Palantir (PLTR), Super Micro (SMCI), and AMD (AMD)-set to announce this week.

With limited official data available due to the ongoing government shutdown, investors are turning to private-sector surveys for guidance.

This week’s highlights include:

• Monday: Manufacturing PMI data for the US, Eurozone, UK, and Canada.
• Tuesday: Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) policy decision and New Zealand employment report.
• Thursday: Bank of England (BoE) interest rate announcement.
• Friday: Canada’s employment figures and US consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan.

Meanwhile, several Federal Reserve (FOMC) officials are set to speak, although the lack of fresh data complicates the Fed’s assessment ahead of its December meeting.

Several FOMC members are also scheduled to speak, though the ongoing shutdown complicates the Fed’s preparation ahead of its December policy meeting.

The upcoming ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected at 49.4, up slightly from 49.1 in September, while the prices index is forecast at 62.4. Although the sector remains in contractionary territory, the modest rise suggests firms are adapting to trade pressures and clearing backlogs.

Analysts at Wells Fargo note that while input costs and tariffs continue to weigh on output, the pace of decline is easing, hinting at early signs of stabilisation in US manufacturing.

The RBA is expected to keep its cash rate steady this week, as policymakers weigh sticky inflation against early signs of a softer labour market. Analysts suggest another rate cut could come as early as February, though this would depend on a further cooling in employment conditions.

While inflation remains above the target range, policy is already restrictive, and the central bank is seen continue its easing cycle into next year. Westpac forecasts a 25 bp rate cut in May 2026, followed by additional reductions later in the year, potentially bringing the cash rate down to around 3.10%.

Unemployment is projected to rise toward 4.6% by late 2026, with consumer spending expected to weaken if monetary conditions remain tight.



In New Zealand, employment is expected to grow 0.1% quarter-on-quarter, with the unemployment rate rising modestly from 5.2% to 5.3%.

Analysts at Westpac note that while monthly hiring has stabilized, job creation continues to lag behind population growth, creating a slack in the labour market. As a result, wage growth has cooled, aligning more closely with inflation near 2%-a sign that pressures in the job market are gradually easing.

The Bank of England is expected to leave rates unchanged at 4.00%, maintaining a careful balance between persistent inflation and signs of resilience in the broader economy.

Services inflation remains elevated, even as wage growth cools and the labour market softens. Recent GDP data exceeded expectations, although looming fiscal tightening in the upcoming Autumn Budget (26 November) could weigh on growth and reinforce the disinflationary trend.

Markets will closely watch the BoE’s updated forecasts and tone for any hints of a rate cut at the December meeting, though officials are likely to signal patience.

Canada’s upcoming jobs report is expected to show a 4,000 decline in employment, following a 60,400 surge in September, with the jobless rate seen ticking up to 7.2%. However, RBC expects a modest gain of around 10,000 jobs, citing stable online job postings and limited layoffs.

Job losses have been concentrated in manufacturing and transport, while broader employment remains firm. Despite a surprise GDP dip in August, revisions to prior months suggest the economy remains on track for 0.5% quarterly growth in Q4.

Attention will also turn to Tuesday’s federal budget, where potential fiscal measures could provide additional support for growth into 2025.

Gold prices slipped below $4,000 per ounce on Monday after China removed a key tax incentive for local retailers. Beijing’s decision, announced Saturday, ends the ability for retailers to offset value-added tax (VAT) on gold purchased from the Shanghai Gold Exchange or Shanghai Futures Exchange.

The move triggered a 1% decline in Asian trading, extending gold’s retreat from record highs earlier in October. Despite the correction, gold remains over 50% higher year-to-date, supported by central bank demand and safe-haven flows.

‘China’s tax changes may dent sentiment temporarily,’ said Adrian Ash, Director of Research at BullionVault, ‘but this could offer traders a welcome opportunity for a deeper correction after last month’s spike.’

The week ahead promises a dense mix of economic releases and central bank decisions that could set the tone for November. With the US government shutdown limiting official data and global policymakers signalling a cautious stance, traders will look to private surveys and corporate earnings for direction.

As 2025 enters its final stretch, the market’s ability to sustain October’s optimism may hinge on whether growth remains resilient in the face of policy uncertainty and fading stimulus.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
HFMarkets

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.