HFMarkets (hfm.com): New market analysis services.

HFM

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,334
2
74
Date : 22nd June 2022.

Market Update – June 22 – Stocks rally, USD & Yields hold, Oil & Yen sink.



USD holds at highs (USDIndex 104.51), Stocks closed up over 2% (NASDAQ +2.51%) – (1) dead cat bounce & another bear market rally or (2) signs of peak inflation and peak Fed bearishness ? (Technicals & Fundamentals still say 1). Asian shares closed lower on rapid spread of new Omicron (Hang Seng -1.49%) Yields rheld their gains. Oil also slumped (Brent -3.42%) Gold & BTC slide sideways. Biden expected to announce temp. tax reprieve on gasoline, BOJ Mins confirmed they will ease further if necessary “without hesitation” USDJPY hits new 24-year high. NZD hit by weak trade data.



  • USDIndex tested 103.72 on Tuesday before rallying to 104.55 now.
  • EquitiesUSA500 closed +2.45% (3764), US500FUTS slumped to 3719 now.
  • Yields 10-year yield higher, closed at 3.26% , trades at 3.29% now.
  • Oil & Gold had mixed sessions – USOil slumped 3% to trade at $104.90. Biden & Omicron news weighed & Gold could not hold $1830 and trades at $1825 now on higher Yields and stronger USD.
  • Bitcoin continues to pivot around $20K, test $22K yesterday, back to $20K now.
  • FX marketsEURUSD hback under 1.0500, USDJPY hit new 24-yr highs at 136.71 and Cable trades down to 1.2225 now, following Inflation news, from 1.2325 highs yesterday.
Overnight – UK CPI hits 9.1% inline but up from 9.0% last month, CORE a tick lighter at 5.9% vs 6.0% & 6.2%, PPI beat 2.1% vs 1.8% & 2.7% prior and RPI also hotter at 11.7% vs 11.4% & 11.1% last time. NZ Trade Balance less than 50% of forecast at . Reuters Poll Fed Path: 75bp July, 50bp Sept & Oct, and 25bp Nov. (at the earliest). Japanese official – FX moves against the Yen “not ideal”

Today – Canadian CPI, EZ Consumer Confidence, Speeches from Fed’s Powell, Barkin, Evans & Harker, SNB’s Jordan ECB’s de Guindos & Elderson, BoC’s Rogers.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDUSD (-1.18%). Collapsed from test of 0.6360 on Monday & Tuesday to 0.6250, as NZD Trade Balance missed significantly. MAs aligning lower, MACD histogram negative turning lower, RSI 21.25, OS but still falling, H1 ATR 0.00124, Daily ATR 0.00850.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFM

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,334
2
74
Date : 23rd June 2022.

Market Update – June 23 – USD & Yields slip, Oil down post Powell.



USD slips from highs (USDIndex 103.80), Stocks closed flat (NASDAQ & DJIA -0.15%) Yields tanked (-4%) after Powell said FED were “strongly committed” to the inflation fight and that recession was “certainly possible”. Asian shares mixed (Hang Seng +1.64%, Nikkei +0.8%, Kospi -0.7%) Oil slumped another -2% and Gold & BTC slide sideways. Biden announced tax reprieve on gasoline, but is under increasing political pressure, Johnson faces two more by-election defeats today & national rail strikes on-going, (6th Anniversary of Brexit vote) and Scholz fears gas line shutdown and unable to speak with Putin. USDJPY cooled from new 24-year high as JPY outperformed in Asian session.

  • USDIndex tested 103.60 yesterday before recovering to 104.00 now.
  • EquitiesUSA500 closed -4.9 (3759), US500FUTS lower at 3756 now.
  • Yields 10-year yield higher, closed down -479% at 3.156% , trades at 3.18% now.
  • Oil & Gold had mixed sessions – USOil slumped 2.2% to trade under $102 yesterday following Biden & Powell, back to $104.80 now. Gold spiked to $1845 and trades at $1834 now on weaker Yields and USD.
  • Bitcoin continues to pivot around $20K, trades at $20.5K now.
  • FX marketsEURUSD tested 106.00 yesterday back to 1.0560, USDJPY cooled from 136.71 yesterday to test 135.00 earlier & back to 135.83 now. Cable trades down to 1.2230 now from rally to 1.2330 yesterday .
Overnight – Japanese Manu PMI – miss (52.7 vs 53.5) UK Public sector borrowing hit £14bn last month, the third-highest May since 1993, and worse than the expected £11.6bn.

Today – EZ, UK & US Flash PMIs, US Initial Claims, Policy Announcements from Norges Bank, CBRT & Banxico, US Bank Stress Test Results, Fed’s Chair Powell Speaks at the House Finance Committee.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDJPY (-0.68%). JPY out performs today with safe haven bid. Rallied from 93.20 earlier to 93.70, next resistance the significant 94.00. MAs aligning higher, MACD histogram negative & still turning lower, RSI 42.45, and rising, H1 ATR 0.278, Daily ATR 1.49.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Date : 24th June 2022.

Market Update – June 24 – USD & Yields slips, Stocks tick higher.



USD slips from highs (USDIndex 104.00), Stocks closed higher (NASDAQ +1.62%) Yields slipped again (-1.66%) after no new news from Powell. Asian shares stronger (Hang Seng +2.24%, Nikkei +1.23%) Oil holds at lows, Gold dipped & BTC picked up. Ukraine gained EU candidacy status. UK PM Johnson’s Conservatives lost the two by-elections, triggering resignation of Party Chairman Dowden. European Futs +1.0%. USDJPY cooled further as NZD & AUD outperformed in Asian session.

  • USDIndex tested 104.50 yesterday before slipping back to 104.00 now.
  • EquitiesUSA500 closed +35 (3795), US500FUTS higher at 3824 now.
  • Yields 10-year yield lower, closed down at 3.133% , trades at 3.018% now.
  • Oil & Gold had mixed sessions – USOil rallied to $106.80 before slipping back to $104.50 now. Gold spiked to $1845 again but trades at $1822 now on weaker Yields and USD.
  • Bitcoin continues to pivot around $20K, trades at $20.7k now from a test of 21k.
  • FX MarketsEURUSD tested 1.0500 yesterday now back to 1.0536, USDJPY cooled again to 134.60 now. Cable trades at 1.2270 now, from lows at 1.2170 yesterday, despite by-election results and weak Retail Sales data, UK recession risks are stacking up.
Overnight – Japanese Core CPI inline & unchanged (2.1%) SPPI hotter (1.8%) UK Retail Sales a tick better than expected (-0.5% vs -0.6%) but down significantly from 1.4% last month.

Today – German Ifo, US New Home Sales, Speeches from Fed’s Bullard & Daly, ECB’s de Cos, BoE’s Pill,



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDUSD (+0.49%). NZD out performed today. Rallied from 0.62500 test yesterday to 0.6300 now and a key resistance. MAs aligning higher, MACD histogram positive & rising, RSI 56.58 & rising, H1 ATR 0.00127, Daily ATR 0.00843.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFM

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,334
2
74
Date : 4th July 2022.

Market Update – July 4 – USD & Stocks hold gains, Yields slip.



USD holds around Fridays close (USDIndex 104.85), Stocks closed higher on Friday (S&P500 +1.06%) but FUTS have slipped and Yields are down again (-4.51%). Asian shares are mixed after Chinese developer Shimao defaults and Covid concerns rise again. (Hang Seng -0.30%, Nikkei +0.84%) Oil ticks higher, Gold tests $1815 & BTC tests $19k. European FUTS also mixed. Russia claims victory in “liberated” Luhansk region and accuses Ukraine of shelling Belgorod. AUD outperforms in Asian session.

Week Ahead – Topped by NFP on Friday, FOMC Minutes on Wednesday and RBA rate decision tomorrow

  • USDIndex tested 105.36 Friday before slipping back to 104.85 now.
  • EquitiesUSA500 closed +39 (3825), US500FUTS lower at 3810 now.
  • Yields 10-year yield lower, closed down at 2.889% , trades at 2.880% now.
  • Oil & Gold had mixed sessions – USOil has rallied to $108.70 now from $104.55 Friday. Gold spiked to $1815 earlier from a $1785 low on Friday.
  • Bitcoin continues to trade under $20K, testing $19K today.
  • FX MarketsEURUSD tested under 1.0400 Friday following record CPI (8.6%) now back to 1.0425, USDJPY cooled again to 134.75 on Friday back to 135. 40 now. Cable trades at 1.2110 now, from lows at 1.1975 Friday after weak PMIs.
Overnight – Australian Building Approvals jumped surprisingly to 9.9% vs -2.0%. German Trade Balance, missed significantly, turning negative at -1.0b vs. 4.2b, & Swiss CPI, hotter at 0.7%.

Today – EZ PPI, Speeches from ECB’s Elderson, Nagel & de Guindos, US Independence Day holiday.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDJPY (+0.60%). AUD out performed today. Rallied from 91.40 test on Friday to 92.64 now and a key resistance. MAs aligning higher, MACD histogram negative but rising, RSI 58.3 & rising, H1 ATR 0.251, Daily ATR 1.432.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFM

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,334
2
74
Date : 5th July 2022.

Market Update – July 5 – USD Hold Gains, RBA Acts, Stocks Steady.



USD holds at highs (USDIndex 104.85), Stocks closed higher in Europe and hold gains in Asia with US FUTS higher too. Yields are flat but off recent lows. Asian markets buoyed by positive Yellen-Liu He meeting, prospect of Chinese & Australian Fin. Min. meeting this week and better PMI data from Japan & China, all despite action from the RBA. Covid concerns continue to weigh (Hang Seng +0.07%, Nikkei +1.04%) Oil ticks to $110, Gold holds over $1800 & BTC regains $20k. JPY underperforms in Asian. RBA raises rates in line with expectations by 50bp to 1.35%.

  • USDIndex tested 105.00 Monday before slipping back to 104.85 now.
  • EquitiesUSA500 closed +39 (3825), Friday US500FUTS higher at 3854 now.
  • Yields 10-year yield lower, closed down Friday at 2.889% , trades at 2.880% now.
  • Oil & Gold had mixed sessions – USOil rallied to $110.40 earlier from $108.00 Monday. Gold holds between resistance at $1815 and support at $1800, trading at $1808 now.
  • Bitcoin continues to trade around $20K, testing $20.3K today.
  • FX MarketsEURUSD remains pressured at 1.0430, USDJPY rallied to 136.30 earlier from under 135.00 Monday. Cable trades at 1.2110 now.
Overnight – China Services PMI’s better at 54.3 vs 47.3, Japanese Service PMI also improve at 54.0 vs 52 last time.

Today – EZ/UK Services and Composite Final PMIs, US Factory Orders, BoE Mins. & FSR, Speeches from BoE’s Bailey & Tenreyro.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) EURJPY (+0.54%). JPY weaker today. Rallied from under 140.00 Thursday to 142.20 now, next resistance, 142.75 & 143.00. MAs aligning higher, MACD histogram positive & rising, RSI 66.00 & rising, H1 ATR 0.212, Daily ATR 1.402.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFM

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,334
2
74
Date : 6th July 2022.

Market Update – July 6 – Dollar Dominates on Global Recession Fears.



USD moves to 20-year highs (USDIndex 106.34), US Stocks fell 2% on open but closed positively (NASDAQ +1.75%). Global PMI data overall in line. European markets fell 2%+ & Asian markets are negative (Hang Seng -2.38%, Nikkei -1.2%). Yields closed down -2.77%. Oil tanked -8.2% trading under $100, Gold closed under $1765 & BTC rotates at $20k. EUR fell to new 20-year lows with parity in sight. Heavy fighting in Donetsk adds to the sombre mood. UK PM lost two cabinet ministers adding to woes for Johnson and Sterling.

  • USDIndex tested 106.55 and remains on Bid at 106.25 now.
  • EquitiesUSA500 closed +6.0 (3831), after a weak day, US500FUTS at 3818 now.
  • Yields 10-year yield lower, closed at 2.808% , trades at 2.802% now.
  • Oil & Gold had weak sessions – USOil tanked under $100.00 to $97.30 lows, back at $100 now. Gold fell to 1762 earlier, 1768 now.
  • Bitcoin continues to trade around $20K, testing $20.1K today.
  • FX MarketsEURUSD remains pressured at 1.0260, USDJPY rallied from under 135.00 to 135.80 now. Cable trades at 1.1932 now.
Overnight – German Factory Orders better at 0.1% from -1.8%.

Today – EZ Retail Sales, US ISM Services PMI, FOMC Minutes, Speeches from Fed’s Williams & BoE’s Pill.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) CADJPY (-0.42%). CAD JPY weaker today. Fell from allied from under 106.00 Tuesday to 103.50 today before recovering. MAs aligning lower, MACD histogram neagtive but flat, RSI 41.00 & rising, H1 ATR 0.291, Daily ATR 1.378.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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Date : 7th July 2022.

Market Update – July 7 – Fed focused on Inflation, USD bid, Stocks flat, Gold tumbles.



USD moved down from new to 20-year highs at 107.00 but remains in demand (USDIndex 106.64), US Stocks flat on close (NASDAQ +0.35%). FED Minutes leaned to the hawkish side. – ‘more restrictive’ policy as likely if inflation fails to come down. Asian markets are mostly positive (Hang Seng -0.13%, Nikkei +1.4%). Yields closed up +3.3%. Oil fell another -1.0%, Gold plummeted again to $1735 & BTC rotates at $20k. UK PM Johnson has now lost over 50 members of his government but refuses to resign. AUD outperforms overnight.

Yesterday US ISM Service PMIs were better than expected but still at 25-mth low & JOLTS showed 11.25m job vacancies (1.9 jobs for every unemployed person).

  • USDIndex tested 107.00 and remains on Bid at 106.65 now.
  • EquitiesUSA500 closed +0.36% 13.69pts (3845), US500FUTS at 3854 now.
  • Yields 10-year yield higher, closed at 2.92%, trades at 2.90% now. Yield curve inverted again yesterday.
  • Oil & Gold had weak sessions – USOil traded down to $95.10 lows and remains under $100.00 at $98.48. Gold fell to 1732, next support at 1725, trades at 1745 now.
  • Bitcoin continues to trade around $20K, testing $20.3K today.
  • FX MarketsEURUSD remains pressured at 1.0200, USDJPY rallied from under 135.00 to test 136.00 now. Cable trades at 1.1950 now.
Overnight – German Industrial Output missed at 0.2% from 1.3%. Australian Trade Balance much better at 15.97b vs 10.7b & 13.25b prior.

Today – US ADP Employment & International Trade, ECB Minutes, EIA Oil Inventories, Speeches from Fed’s Waller & Bullard, ECB’s Lane & Enria, BoE’s Pill.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDJPY (+0.42%). AUD lifted by trade data. Rallied form allied from 91.50 Wednesday to 92.70 today before cooling. MAs aligning higher, MACD histogram positive & rising, RSI 55.24 & rising, H1 ATR 0.227, Daily ATR 1.398.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFM

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,334
2
74
Date : 8th July 2022.

Market Update – July 8 – Stocks Rise, USD holds, Johnson Resigns, Abe Shot.



USDIndex tested 107.00 again following safe haven bids for USD & JPY following shooting of former Japanese PM Shinzo Abe (he remains in a critical condition). US Stocks rallied into close (NASDAQ +2.28%), lifting on hopes of less restrictive FED despite the tone of the minutes. Asian markets were positive before shooting closing flat. (Hang Seng +0.22%, Nikkei +0.1%). European FUTS positive too. Yields closed up +3.85%. Oil rallied 4.3%, Gold flat up 0.2% & BTC rallied to $22k. UK PM Johnson resigned but will remain caretaker PM for now (FTSE100 gained 1.14%, Cable recovered to 1.2000).

  • USDIndex holds the bid at 107.00
  • EquitiesUSA500 closed +1.50% 57.54pts (3902), US500FUTS at 3899 now.
  • Yields 10-year yield higher, closed at 2.85%, trades at 3.05% now.
  • Oil & Gold had volatile sessions – USOil traded up to $104 from $96.60 lows and remains over $100.00 at $102.00. Gold fell to $1742, and rotates their currently.
  • Bitcoin rallied from $20K, testing $22.4K today on chatter of major investments coming.
  • FX MarketsEURUSD remains pressured at 1.016, USDJPY capped by 136.00 traes at 135.50 now. Cable traded to 1.2050 at 1.2000 now.
OvernightA weak set of data from Japan – Household spend -0.5% vs 2.2%, Econ. Watchers Sentiment 52.9 vs. 55.0

Today – US & Canadian Labour Market Reports, US Wholesale Inventories, Speeches from ECB’s Lagarde & Fed’s Williams.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) GBPJPY (–0.39%). JPY safe haven bid following ABE shooting stemmed the rally to 164.00 from 160.40 on Wednesday. Down to 162.80 now. MAs crossed lower, MACD histogram positive but falling, RSI 44 & falling, H1 ATR 0.319, Daily ATR 1.983.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFM

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,334
2
74
Date : 11th July 2022.

Market Update – July 11 – Stocks pressured, USD gains.



The NFP report was slightly disappointing overall (372k June payroll gain & -74k in downward revisions). USD & Yields spiked, with USDIndex 107.59. Fed funds futures are dropping as the jobs report gives no reason for the FOMC to slow its policy trajectory, keeping a 75 bp hike at the July 26-27 FOMC intact and 50 bp move at the September 20-21 meeting. Stocks remain under pressure. Asian stocks struggled further overnight, with China bourses once again hit by lockdown concerns. Chinese CPI hotter at 2.5% vs 2.1%, but PPI cooler 6.15 vs 6.4%. COT report shows long positions on USD were reduced.

China discovered its first case of a highly transmissible Omicron subvariant in Shanghai and that new cases jumped to 63 in the country’s largest city from 52 a day earlier.

  • USDIndex is heading for a new 20 year high – eased a bit at 107.23.
  • Yields: The 2-year rate is up over 3.119%, 3-year at 3.165% & 10-year higher at 3.095%.
  • Stocks : USA30 was down -0.15%, while the USA500 was off -0.08%. The USA100 rose 0.12%. In Europe, the picture is not much better and GER40 and UK100 futures are down -1.4% and -1.0%. Twitter fell 5% (with more to come) after MUSK withdrew the $44bln offer. The market mood will be tested by earnings from JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley on Thursday, with Citigroup and Wells Fargo the day after.
  • Oil prices fell slightly today reversing some gains amid lockdown fear in China, i.e. concerns about tight supply. USOIL at $102.96 – New mass COVID testing in China potentially hitting demand.
  • Gold steady for a 3rd day at $1,732-$1,750.
  • FX Markets: USDJPY at 137.26 – 24-year high. Japan’s ruling conservative coalition’s strong election showing indicated no change to lose monetary policies.
Today – Fed’s Williams speech.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) EURUSD (–0.62%) down to 1.0105. MAs aligning lower, MACD histogram negative & declining, RSI 31, H1 ATR 0.0014, Daily ATR 0.01032.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFM

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,334
2
74
Date : 14th July 2022.

Market Update – July 14 – Focus on PPI & Earnings.



It was all about June CPI and the report did not disappoint. Risk was for a hot report and the Administration warned of rising pressures. The most dramatic movers were the hot CPI report and the BoC’s 100 bp hike. Those opened the door for an outsized Fed move and in turn heightened risk for a recession. A bearish curve inversion play as the data nail the coffin for a 75 bp hike on July 27, with nontrivial risk of more aggressive action, either with a 100 bp increase which the BoC just effected, or with consecutive 75 bp moves in July and September. USD sustained gains, Oil settled at 200 DMA and Stocks traded mixed. Stocks were up 0.6% and 0.4% in Japan and Australia respectively, the latter helped by a record low unemployment report (50-year low) while Chinese imports continue to linger as the country’s Covid policy keeps a lid on activity. The AUD rallied on the numbers, as traders boosted speculations for a 75 bp rate hike from the RBA in August.

  • USDIndex held above 108.00 level, but failed to break 3-day resistance.
  • Yields: the 10-year ended over 7 bps lower at 2.89%, reflecting credibility in the FOMC’s policy stance. Fed funds futures priced in a 54% chance for a 100 bp rate hike on July 27 with rising odds for 170 bps in hikes from here.
  • Stocks: USA100 tumbled -0.15%. The USA500 is off -0.45%, and the USA30 has slid -0.67%.
  • USOIL traded at $95 holding above 200-day SMA.
  • Gold found a bid but gains were trimmed. Currently down to $1,706.
  • FX Markets: EURUSD holds fractionally above parity at 1.0002, USDJPY skyrocketed to 139.28, Cable fell to 1.1856. AUD and to a lesser extent the NZD gained.
  • Today – US calendar has jobless claims and PPI, but the earning releases are in the spotlight with JPMorgan Chase & Co., Morgan Stanley, First Republic Bank, Cintas etc.


Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDJPY (+1.62%) breached 85.20. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line extend further northwards, RSI above 701 but falling. H1 ATR 0.193, Daily ATR 0.975.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFM

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,334
2
74
Date : 15th July 2022.

Market Update – July 15.



Trading Leveraged Products is risky

USD steady at 108.50, Oil holds above 200 DMA, Stocks and bonds weaker on poor earnings news and bearish spillover from Europe on recession fears and political turmoil, and dove on the initial PPI print which kept the door open for a hefty 100 bp rate hike from the FOMC at the upcoming July 26-27 meeting. China bourses were under pressure after weaker than expected data that included a 0.4% y/y rise in GDP, which clearly missed expectations for a 1.0% y/y rise.

Equity Market: JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley missed earning forecasts. Net income at both lenders fell nearly 30% in the second quarter as work on IPOs and SPACs dried up. It was the first earnings miss from either JPMorgan — the largest US lender by assets and an industry bellwether — or Morgan Stanley since the start of 2020. Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. dragged Chinese tech shares lower as concerns about a crackdown on the sector resurfaced after company executives were reported to be facing an inquiry linked to the theft of a vast police database.

  • USDIndex garnered strong early support and rose to 29on diverging central bank stances and political uncertainties before drifting to 108.55.
  • Yields: the 10-year was 2.8 bps higher at 2.961%, versus a 3.02% intraday peak.
  • Stocks: In China, fresh worries of regulatory pressure are adding to a decline in tech stocks. The ASX also struggled and corrected -0.7%, but the Nikkei found a footing and lifted 0.5%, with the GER40 gaining nearly 1%, the UK1004%, and a 0.2% rise in the USA100.
  • USOIL traded at $95.50 holding above 200-day SMA.
  • Gold near 5th consecutive weekly loss. Currently down to $1,704.73.
  • FX Markets: EURUSD slumped below parity to 9952before it bounced to 1.0023, USDJPY is still at a very high level at 138.70, Cable at 1.1820.
  • Today –US Retail Sales. Earnings: UnitedHealth Group, Wells Fargo, BlackRock, Citigroup etc.


Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) CHFJPY (+0.56%) breached 141.66. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line extend further northwards, RSI above 70 but falling. H1 ATR 0.212, Daily ATR 1.404.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFM

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,334
2
74
Date : 18th July 2022.

Market Update – July 18 – Stocks Rally, Dollar Dips, Biden Fist Bump.



USDIndex continued last week’s slip to test 107.60. US data on Friday (Retail Sales, Empire State & UoM Con. Sentiment) all better than expected. Bullard talked 75bp not 100bp for July. US Stocks rallied into close (DOW +2.15%), despite misses from Wells Fargo & BlackRock. Asian markets positive, (Hang Seng +2.42%, Nikkei +0.43%). European FUTS positive too. Yields closed down -1.25% but the rate curve is still inverted. Oil up to $98, Gold up to $1714 BTC has rallied to $22k. Biden fist bumped Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman but got little from visit, Yellen pushes minimum global corporation tax, IMF are “exceptionally uncertain” over global growth & Reuters report on 12 countries on brink of default.

Week Ahead – ECB & BOJ Rate Decisions, RBA Mins, a raft of CPI & Retail Sales data and Earnings Season gets into full swing including Banks & IBM today, Netflix, Tesla, Twitter and Johnson & Johnson later in the week.

  • USDIndex slides further from Thursday’s 109.00 to 107.60 now as expectations of a 100bp rate hike next week recedes.
  • EquitiesUSA500 closed +1.92% 72.54pts (3863), US500FUTS at 3897 now. Citi BIG Earnings beat +13.2%, Wells Fargo profits fell 50% but stock closed +6.2%, United Health +5.4%, BlackRock +2%, Netflix +8.2%, BAC +7.04%. 35 companies have reported; 80% have beat estimates.
  • Yields 10-year yield higher, from close +2.92%, trades at 2.935% now.
  • Oil & Gold had volatile sessions last week – USOil trades up back to $100 from $90.90 lows last week, following inconclusive Biden visit to Mid-East; OPEC next meet Aug 3. Gold fell under $1700, last week but back to $1714 now on weaker USD.
  • Bitcoin rallied from $19K, testing $22.2K today on more chatter of major investments coming.
  • FX MarketsEURUSD remains pressured at 1.0100 but moving up today, USDJPY down from 139.30 to 138.20 now. Cable trades back to 1.1900 from 1.1760 lows last week. Race to be new PM is reduced to two contenders this week. New PM Sept 5.
Overnight – NZ CPI hotter than expected (1.7% (32-year high at ) vs. 1.5%). NZD jumped too.

Today – Little economic data, speech BOE’s Saunders. Earnings – Bank of America, IBM, Goldman Sachs & Charles Schwab.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) EURUSD (+0.68%). EUR rallying ahead of ECB this week ? From under Parity (0.9951) on Thursday to 1.01400 now. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram positive but flat, RSI 69 & rising, H1 ATR 0.00172, Daily ATR 0.01088.

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) EURUSD (+0.68%). EUR rallying ahead of ECB this week ? From under Parity (0.9951) on Thursday to 1.01400 now. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram positive but flat, RSI 69 & rising, H1 ATR 0.00172, Daily ATR 0.01088.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFM

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,334
2
74
Date : 19th July 2022.

Market Update – July 19 – USD & Stocks Cool Ahead of Central Banks.



Trading Leveraged Products is risky

USDIndex continued last week’s slip and tested 106.80, before recovering. US Stocks dropped into close following +1% on open (NASDAQ -0.81%) after a plunge in the NAHB home builder index. Goldmans & Bank Of America, beat expectations but saw profits down -47% & -37%, respectively. IBM beat after hours, but shares fell -4.32%. Reports that Apple (-2.06%) is to freeze hiring weighed. Asian markets are choppy, (Hang Seng -0.82%, Nikkei +0.70%). European FUTS also mixed. Yields are up +1.72% & the rate curve is still inverted. Oil holds $100, Gold down to $1710 BTC holds at $22k. Gazprom warnings of European supply issues and 700 new Covid cases reported in China, weigh on sentiment.

Week Ahead – ECB & BOJ Rate Decisions, RBA Mins, a raft of CPI & Retail Sales data and Earnings Season still has more Banks, Johnson & Johnson and Netflix today,with Tesla, Twitter & Snap later in the week.

  • USDIndex slides further to test 106.80 and rotates around 107.00 now as expectations of a 100bp rate hike next week evaporate. AUD outperforms in Asian session.
  • EquitiesUSA500 closed -0.84%, 32.31pts (3830), US500FUTS at 3850 now. A strong +1% opening rally was wiped out following weak Housing data and the Apple news.
  • Yields 10-year yield higher, into close at 2.986%, trades at 2.96% now.
  • Oil & Gold had volatile sessions last week – USOil trades up back under $100 now from a test of $102.00 yesterday. Gold tested to $1724 yesterday but back to $1707 now.
  • Bitcoin rallied to $22.8K yesterday and holds $22k now, on more chatter of major investments coming.
  • FX MarketsEURUSD remains pressured but tested 1.0200 yesterday & back to 1.016 now and USDJPY is down again to 137.85 now. Cable tested back to 1.2000 from 1.1760 lows last week. Race to be new PM is reduced to two contenders this week. New PM Sept 5.
Overnight – RBA Minutes – “committed to doing what is necessary on inflation” no new insight, UK Earnings (6.2% vs. 6.8%) & Payrolls are weaker and CHF Trade Balance lifted 70 bln CHF.

Today EZ CPI (Final), Speech from BoE’s Bailey. Earnings – J&J, Lockheed & Netflix.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDUSD (+0.60%). AUD continues to recover from last weeks 0.6680 low and no surprises today from RBA Minutes. Next resistance 0.6850 & 0.6900. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line higher, RSI 67 & rising, H1 ATR 0.00124, Daily ATR 0.00908.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Date : 20th July 2022.

Market Update – July 20 – Stocks rallied; USD down.



USDIndex down to 106.52. US Stocks continued to rally overnight, after European and US markets posted broad gains yesterday (NASDAQ +3.11%) amid strong earnings and the expected resumption of Russian gas supply to Europe helping lift risk-on sentiment and ease fears of a recession. UK CPI inflation lifted to 9.4% y/y in June from 9.1% y/y in the previous month. Core inflation eased slightly, but at 5.8% y/y still remains far, far above target. German PPI inflation eased slightly.

Earnings: Netflix shares jumped after earnings beat; it lost fewer subscribers than expected and says cheaper ad tier is coming in early 2023. Boeing rose on deal to sell jets to 777 Partners, Johnson & Johnson and IBM fell on dollar impact warning, Halliburton, Hasbro & Truist rose after profit beat. Johnson & Johnson beat analysts’ estimates on strength in its pharmaceuticals unit, even as the company cut its full-year adjusted profit forecast due to a stronger Dollar. Twitter Inc. and Elon Musk will go to trial in October over whether the billionaire must complete his $44 billion acquisition of the social media company, a Delaware judge ruled on Tuesday. Amazon.com filed a lawsuit against the leaders of more than 10,000 Facebook groups it accused of publishing fake reviews on the e-commerce site, the company announced on Tuesday.

  • USDIndex is mired at two-week lows to 106.52. It has fallen 2 handles in two days from a 20+ year high of 108.54 last Thursday.
  • EquitiesUSA500 climbed 2.76%, USA100 surged 3.11% followed by a 2.43% jump in the USA30. JPN225 gained 2.7%, the ASX 1.7% and Hang Seng and CSI lifted 1.6% and 0.2% respectively.
  • Yields 10-year Treasury yield is up 0.2 bp at 3.02%.
  • Oil down to 98.70 & Gold steady at $1707.
  • FX MarketsEURUSD has climbed to 1.0233 ahead of Thursday’s ECB meeting. USDJPY has corrected to 137.52. Cable at 1.2008.
Today: Canadian CPI. Earnings – Tesla, ASML Holding, Abbott Laboratories etc. For Europe the day of reckoning will come tomorrow when the ECB meeting coincides with the day the Nordstream 1 pipeline is supposed to re-open after scheduled maintenance work. If Russia doesn’t re-open and the ECB announcement disappoints Eurozone stocks and the EUR are likely to sell off in tandem with Eurozone peripherals.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) US100 (+3.10%). Spiked to 12,356. Next resistance 12,600 & 12,945. MAs aligned, turning lower in 1-hour chart, MACD histogram & signal line hold higher, RSI 66 but falling.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFM

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,334
2
74
Date : 21st July 2022.

Market Update – July 21.



Trading Leveraged Products is risky
USDIndex down to 106.62. BoJ stuck to its ultra-accommodative policy stance. Asian markets traded mixed. European and US futures are higher now after paring earlier losses in the wake of reports that the Nordstream 1 pipeline was re-opened as planned. (NASDAQ +1.58%). European markets will wait for the ECB and news on the new anti-fragmentation tool, which may be needed quickly after Italian PM Draghi lost the confidence vote yesterday, with three of his coalition partners withdrawing support. Draghi is likely to resign this morning.

Earnings: Tesla reported adjusted earnings of $2.27 per share on $16.93 billion in revenue in Q2 2022 (+42% revenue). Automotive margins decreased from last quarter and a year ago, impacted by inflation and more competition for EV components. Shares of Alcoa and CSX jumped in extended trading after the companies beat expectations. United Airlines (-6% stock price) reported that it returned to profitability during the second quarter, but results came in below expectations. Shares of Carnival were under pressure after the cruise company announced that it was selling an additional $1 billion of stock.

ECB Preview: There is a lot riding on today’s ECB meeting, where Lagarde is not just expected to finally lift rates, but also to unveil details of a new “Transmission Protection Mechanism”. There were source stories this week confirming what the minutes to the last meeting and comments since then have made pretty clear, namely that the hawks at the council will be pushing for a 50 bp move.

  • USDIndex has dropped to 106.62.
  • EquitiesUSA100 climbed 1.58%, while the USA500 and USA30 rose 0.59% and 0.15%, respectively. Nikkei and ASX managed gains of 0.37% and 0.5% respectively.
  • Yields 10-year Treasury yield meanwhile is up 2.6 bp at 3.05%.
  • Oil consolidating between $98-$100. US crude stocks dip, gasoline builds as demand slackens – EIA, Libya’s NOC say production resumes at several oilfields. Canada Keystone export pipeline at reduced rates for third day.
  • Gold drifts at $1685.
  • FX MarketsEURUSD got a boost from news of gas deliveries to 1.0230. USDJPY has lifted to 138.62. Cable at 1.1960. NZD is looking weak.


Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) EURGBP (+0.56%) retests 3-day high at 0.8540. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line at 0, RSI 61 and rising.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFM

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,334
2
74
Date : 22nd July 2022.

Market Update – July 22 – ECB Goes Large.



USDIndex continued to decline testing 106.25, ECB surprised with Hawkish 50bp rate hike lifting rates above 0 (first hike since 2011) and lifting Euro. US Stocks had another positive day (NASDAQ +1.36%) TSLA +9.78%, SNAP +5.42% but dropped -24% after hours on Earnings miss AT&T -7.42% & United Airlines -10.17%. Asian markets are mostly positive. (Hang Seng -0.01%, Nikkei +0.40%). European FUTS also mixed. Yields are down -4.78%. Oil bounced from $95.00 trades at $98.00, Gold up $1720, BTC holds over $22k. Gazprom turns the gas back on but Europe remains nervous as solidarity is tested, Biden tests Covid positive.

  • USDIndex slides further to test 106.25 before bouncing to 107.25 support as EURO rally cools.
  • EquitiesUSA500 closed +0.99%, 39.00pts (3998), US500FUTS at 3884 now.
  • Yields 10-year yield lower into close at 2.91, trades at 2.915% now.
  • Oil & Gold had volatile sessions last week – USOil trades up from $95 to test $98.00. Gold tests $1720 now from $1680.
  • Bitcoin rallied to $23.8K yesterday and holds $22k now, on more chatter of major investments coming.
  • FX MarketsEURUSD remains pressured but tested 1.0280 yesterday & back to 1.0142 now and USDJPY is down again to 137.58 now. Cable tested back to 1.2000 & back down ti 1.1913. Race to be new PM is reduced to two contenders this week. New PM Sept 5.
Overnight – UK Retail Sales and PMIs from Europe, Germany, UK and US.

Today: UK & US Flash PMIs, UK Retail Sales, ECB SPF & CBR Policy Announcement, Earnings from American Express, Verizon.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDUSD (+0.60%). AUD continues to recover from last week’s 0.6680 low and no surprises today from RBA Minutes. Next resistance 0.6850 & 0.6900. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram & signal line higher, RSI 67 & rising, H1 ATR 0.00124, Daily ATR 0.00908.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Date : 25th July 2022.

Market Update – July 25 – FED & Tech Giant Earnings Week.



USDIndex pushed under 106.00 on Friday (closed at 106.50) as the US Services sector contracted for first time in 2 years. US Stocks sank into close (NASDAQ -1.87%), big declines for tech companies, led by a -39% for SNAP. Asian markets also negative to start the week, (Hang Seng -1.18%, Nikkei -0.79%). European FUTS lower too. Yields tanked to closed down -4.74%. Oil under $94, Gold under $1725 and BTC under $22k. High Inflation, rising Interest Rates and weak Consumer and Business Confidence continue to weigh on sentiment. The CME “FedWatch Tool”¹ still has a 21.3% chance of a 100bp rate hike on Wednesday. Russia & Ukraine signed agreement to allow grain exports to start but then Russia shelled Odessa, UK PM race is getting increasingly bitter and Lavrov is on a tour of Africa.



Week Ahead – FED Rate Decision, US GDP and Earnings Season sees the technology giants (APPL, AMZN, MSFT, GOOGL & META) plus many more companies all reporting Q2 data.

  • USDIndex up from lows at 105.96 on Friday (US Services PMIs big miss and into contraction at 47.00 vs 52.7) now trades at 106.60.
  • EquitiesUSA500 closed -0.93% -37pts (3961), (week +2.4%). US500FUTS at 3958 now. SNAP +39.04%, TWTR +0.8%, (Earnings not as bad as expected), AMEX +1.9% (Earnings beat & increased Revenue forecast) Verizon -6.8% (Profits cut) META -7.6%, GOOGL -5.6%.
  • 106 companies have reported; 75.5% have beat estimates (average for last 4 quarters 80% beat.) Strong Dollar hindering.
  • Yields 10-year yield significantly lower at 2.783%, trades lower again at 2.75% now.
  • Oil & Gold had volatile & weak sessions last week – USOil traded from over $102 support down to $94.15 lows, and is lower again today at $93.00. OPEC next meet Aug 3. Gold fell to $1680 lows last week but recovered $1700 and trades back to $1725 now.
  • Bitcoin rallied to $24K, last week, breaking away from the $20k level but is back to $21.8K today
  • FX MarketsEURUSD remains pressured but rotates at 1.0200, USDJPY down to test 135.50 last week – now 136.30. Cable breached the key 1.2000 last week, trades at 1.1990 now.
Today – German Ifo Survey, UK CBI Trends, US National Activity Index, Earnings from Ryanair, Philips, Vodafone, Infosys, Newmont and NXP Semiconductor.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) USDCHF (+0.40%). Rallied from a test under 0.9600 on Friday to 0.9645 now next resistance 0.9658 & 0.9675. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram negative but rising, RSI 52 & rising, H1 ATR 0.00125, Daily ATR 0.00800.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFM

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,334
2
74
Date : 26th July 2022.

Market Update – July 26 – On Hold Ahead of FED, Oil Rallies.



Trading Leveraged Products is risky

USDIndex ticked lower again but held over 106.00, ahead of the FOMC decision tomorrow. FX markets subdued with a 75 bp hike fully priced in, however uncertainty weighs over guidance. Russia will cut gas supplies to Europe from tomorrow. US Stocks rallied into close after a weak day (NASDAQ -0.43%), Walmart fell -9% (after hours) following profit warning, Newmont missed earnings -13%. AMZN raised prices for Amazon Prime. Alibaba cut back global expansion plans. Asian markets mixed (Hang Seng +1.76%, Nikkei -0.23%). European FUTS lower too. Yields bounced to close up +1.67%. Oil rallied $5/barrel to $98.00 after Russian announcement. Gold remains under $1725 and BTC under $22k. Biden talked down a “recession” and called for more investment from Oil companies.

Week Ahead – FED Rate Decision, US GDP and Earnings Season sees the technology giants (APPL, AMZN & META) plus many more companies all reporting Q2 data.

  • USDIndex up, support at 106.20 holds, & trades at 106.30 – the Dallas & Chicago Fed indexes both slumped and remained in negative territory, another sign of recession.
  • EquitiesUSA500 closed +5.12 pts (0.13%) (3966), US500FUTS at 3958 now. 4th 8%+ rally of the year, previous 3 have resulted in lower lows…
  • Yields 10-year yield recovered to close at 2.8%, trades lower again at 2.79% now.
  • Oil – infocus following tight supply and the announcement from Russia rallied over 5% from $93.
  • Gold had a volatile session from $1736 to $1714 to settle at $1724 once again.
  • Bitcoin sank from $21.8K yesterday down to $21k now.
  • FX MarketsEURUSD remains pressured but rotates at 1.0225, USDJPY down to test 136.00 yesterday; now 136.70. Cable breached the key 1.2000 last week, trades at 1.1990 now.
Overnight – JPY CPI & PPI – firmer & in-line at 1.6% & 2.0% respectively.

Today – US Monthly Home Prices, US Consumer Confidence, US Richmond Fed, IMF Short-term Forecasts, EU’s Energy Summit. Earnings from MSFT, GOOGL, Coca-Cola McDonald’s, UBS (missed), 3M, UPS, GE, Visa



Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) Copper (+2.37%). Rallied from 3.2460 lows last week to 3.4370 now, next resistance 3.4687 (20-day MA). MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram positive & rising, RSI 73 & OB zone, H1 ATR 0.0172, Daily ATR 0.1246.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFM

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,334
2
74
Date : 27th July 2022.

Market Update – July 27 – Big Tech lifts the mood on Fed Day.



USDIndex ticked up to 107.00, as EUR slipped over 1% before recovering following the Russian announcement of further cuts to European gas supplies. FX markets subdued ahead of FED later today. US Stocks declined (NASDAQ -1.87%), Walmart -7.6% (profits warning) Coinbase -21% AMZN -5.23% Shopify -14%. However, after hours GOOGL & MSFT were up 5% & 4% after Earnings. Unilever, Coke & McDonald’s all warned of higher prices. Asian markets mixed (Hang Seng -1.2%, Nikkei +0.23%). European FUTS higher. Yields up again +0.56%, but 2/10yr curve remains inverted. Oil holds $95, Gold slipped to lower and BTC holds under $22k.

  • USDIndex up, to resistance at 107.00 – holds at 106.80.
  • EquitiesUSA500 closed -45.79 pts (-1.15%) (3921), US500FUTS at 3957 now. 4th 8%+ rally of the year, previous 3 have resulted in lower lows..is the bottom in or is it a dead cat bounce?
  • Yields 10-year yield recovered to close at 2.787%, trades higher again at 2.8068% now.
  • Oil – infocus rallied to $98 on news from Russia, since declined to $95.
  • Gold had another weak session – $1727 to $1714, now up to $1718.
  • Bitcoin sank again to trade at $21.1K now.
  • FX MarketsEURUSD remains pressured came within 7 pips of 1.0100 and trades at 1.0225, USDJPY tests to 137.00 now. Cable holds over the key 1.2000, capped at 1.2080.
Overnight – AUD CPI in-line (21-yr high) at 1.8% & German GfK missed -30.6 vs -27.7.

Today – US Durable Goods, FOMC announcement and Chair Powell’s press conference Earnings from Airbus, BASF, Deutsche Bank, Equinor, BATS, GSK, Lloyds, Rio Tinto, Credit Suisse, Meta, T-Mobile, Boeing.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDCAD (-0.30%). Rejected 0.8950 again earlier and tested to 0.8900 a key support. MAs aligned lower, MACD histogram negative & falling, RSI 38 & falling, H1 ATR 0.00127, Daily ATR 0.00697.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFM

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,334
2
74
Date : 28th July 2022.

Market Update – July 28 – Stocks & Treasuries rally, USD dives post FOMC.



USDIndex tanked over a whole big number to 106.00, from 107.25 as the FED raised interest rates 75bp (its 4th rise in 2022). Ongoing rises will be “appropriate” and “highly attentive” to inflation. However, Powell gave no notice as to whether 50bp or 75bp in September was appropriate*. US Stocks rallied hard** (NASDAQ +4.06%), betting on 50bp. NVDA+7.60%, AMZN+5.37%, TSLA+6.17%. However, after hours Meta +6.55% posted a 1% DECLINE in Revenue (the first in its history), shares dropped -4.65%. Asian markets mixed (1 million in Wuhan in lockdown again) (Hang Seng -0.35%, Nikkei +0.23%). European FUTS higher. Yields up again +1.78%, Oil rallied to $98, Gold higher at $1740 and BTC moved up to $23k.

Biden & Xi due to speak today, Manchin (Dem. Senator holding up Biden’s climate Bill) backs down. PBOC to pump $148bn to stabilize real estate sector.





  • USDIndex weakens further to 105.92 now. YEN outperforms in Asian session.
  • EquitiesUSA500 closed higher +102.56 pts (+2.62%) (4023), US500FUTS at 34019 now. 4th 8%+ rally of the year, previous 3 have resulted in lower lows..is the bottom in or is it a dead cat bounce?
  • Yields 10-year yield dived into close to 2.734%, recovered to 2.78% now.
  • Oil – infocus again as inventories had a 4.5m drawdown vs 1.5m, rallied to $98.90.
  • Gold – weaker USD helped lift the precious metal to $1740 highs currently from $1711 lows yesterday.
  • Bitcoin also rallied to trade at $23.1K now.
  • FX MarketsEURUSD rallied from within 7 pips of 1.0100 yesterday to trade at 1.0227, USDJPY dived under 135.30 now, from 137.50 yesterday. Cable broke resistance at 1.2080 to trade to 1.2180 now.
Overnight – NZD Business Confidence improves (-56.7 vs -62.6) AUD Import Prices slip and Retail Sales miss significantly (0.2% vs 0.9%)

Today – German CPIs, US Q2 GDP (Advance), Q2 PCE. Earnings from Barclays, Anglo American, Nestle, EDF, L’Oréal, Amazon, Apple, Intel, and many more.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) USDJPY (-0.87%). Rejected 137.50 yesterday and tested to 135.15 lows earlier. MAs aligned lower, MACD histogram negative & falling, RSI 31.55 & falling, H1 ATR 0.361, Daily ATR 1.225.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Date : 29th July 2022.

Market Update – July 29 – Stocks up, USD lower on final trading day of the month.



Trading Leveraged Products is risky

USDIndex sinks again tanked to 105.75, from 106.80. The US is in a technical recession (2 consecutive quarters of contraction) after Q2 GDP -0.9% & (Q1 -1.6%), and GDP Inflation rose to 8.7% from 8.0%) but Unemployment remains very low and job creation (Claims fell to 256K from 261k) and wage growth are strong. US Stocks rallied another 1%+ on expectations of slower rate hikes. AMZN +1.08% & APPL+0.36%, both beat Earnings after hours, shares were up 3% & 12%, respectively. Meta -5.2% & QCOM -4.54%. Asian markets mixed (Hang Seng -2.02%, Nikkei -0.03%). European FUTS higher. Yields continue to see-saw, today -1.94%, Oil under $97, Gold breached $1760 and BTC moved up to $24k.

Biden & Xi meeting skirted Taiwan talk, Ukrainian forces plan counterattacks in the South, Russia shells Kiev.

  • USDIndex weakens further to 105.45 now. YEN outperforms again in Asian session.
  • EquitiesUSA500 closed higher +48.8 pts (+1.21%) (4072), US500FUTS at 4105 now. Bears being squeezed, 10 days north of 20-day MA. 4175 next key resistance
  • Yields 10-year yield dived into close 2.681%, down again to 2.67% now.
  • Oil – peaked at $99.80 yesterday down to test $96.00 before recovering to $97.00 now.
  • Gold – breached & broke key 20-day MA ($1745) and $1750. Trades at $1765 now.
  • Bitcoin also rallied on weaker USD to trade at $24.1K now.
  • FX MarketsEURUSD rallied to test 1.0250 on EZ news, USDJPY dived 1% under 133.00 to 132.75. Cable broke 1.2200 and trades at 1.2225.
Overnight – JPY Tokyo Inflation hotter, Retail Sales, Housing Starts & Consumer Confidence weaker, AUD PPI inline, French GDP better, German Import Prices in line.

Today – German Flash GDP & Unemployment, EZ Flash CPI and Flash Q2 GDP, US Jun PCE, US Chicago PMI, Canadian GDP.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) USDJPY (-1.13%). Breached key technical level at 133.00 today and tests 132.50. MAs aligned lower, MACD histogram negative & falling, RSI 19.77, OS & falling, H1 ATR 0.365, Daily ATR 1.230.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFM

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,334
2
74
Date : 1st August 2022.

Market Update – August 1.



1st day of the month – Fears over slowing growth and expectations for moderation in Fed rate hikes overshadowed still hot inflation prints.

USDIndex
sinks again to 105.50, while against the Yen it extended to 6-week lows, i.e. 131.96. US data out Friday showed stubbornly high inflation and wages growth. Corporate earnings have mostly beaten lowered forecasts. The China PMI reports missed miserably and flagged risks to the overall outlook as the country’s zero-Covid policy continues to bite. Hong Kong’s benchmark underperformed and lost -0.2%. US Stocks are steady. Nikkei and ASX gained 0.6% and 0.7%, GER40 and UK100 futures are narrowly mixed in opening trade.

Overnight: China’s property developers in focus and Alibaba still weighed down after the US included the company in the delisting watchlist. Evergrande failed to deliver a restructuring plan; Alibaba added to SEC List of Chinese Firms Facing Delisting, along with another 200 companies. German Retail Sales plunged -1.6% m/m in June – flags ongoing cost pressures that coupled with the threat of energy rationing means recession risks are palpable now. HSBC posted a higher profitability target and bullish dividends outlook.

  • USDIndex weakens & YEN outperforms.
  • EquitiesUSA500 closed higher +48.8 pts (+1.21%) (4072), US500FUTS at 4105 now. Fed’s Kashkari affirmed the bank’s commitment to bring inflation down, which acted as a reminder that the Fed will continue to hike rates, even if the path of the tightening cycle may not be quite as aggressive as markets had feared at one point.
  • Yields 10-year Treasury rate lifted 1.6 bp to 2.665 (after sliding to the lowest since early April at 2.618% at the end of last week).
  • Oil – drifted back to 97.60, as OPEC+ meeting on Thursday and is expected to produce an increase in supply, even if only minor.
  • Gold – steady at 2-week highs at $1764.
  • Bitcoin at 23,170.
  • FX MarketsYen remains the main beneficiary of the correction in haven flows into the USD and USDJPY slipped to 131.96. The USDCHF also caught a bid, i.e. 0.9500 and Sterling rose against both USD and EUR – with GBPUSD now at 1.2196, while EURUSD is lingering at 1.0240.
Today – UK, Australian central banks expected to hike this week, while it is NFP week as well.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) USDJPY (-0.79%). Broke 132.00 low. 1Hour-MAs flattened, but MACD histogram negative & falling, RSI sideways 34.50. H1 ATR 0.305, Daily ATR 1.354.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFM

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,334
2
74
Date : 2nd August 2022.

Market Update – August 2 – Pelosi Taiwan Visit Saps Sentiment.



USDIndex sinks again to 105.00, dragged lower by falling Yields (10yr -2.88% to 2.54%). US Stocks lower following record July. HSBC +6.5% Boeing +5.96% Pearson +12.66% BBBY +14.77%. Asian markets pressured lower by Pelosi’s proposed visit to Taiwan and China promising “countermeasures” including “military actions”. (Hang Seng -2.68%, Nikkei -1.44%). European FUTS also lower. (-0.6%). Oil tanks under $93, Gold spiked to $1780 and BTC down under $23k.

RBA raised rates 50bp, as expected, (3rd consecutive month & fastest rate hike cycle since 1994) – BUT cooled forward guidance – will raise rates in months ahead, but “not on a pre-set path” #AUDUSD falls from 0.7030, to 0.6950, #AUDJPY -1.66%.

Biden announces US have killed head of Al-Qaeda, Zawahiri in Kabul drone strike.

  • USDIndex weakens further to test under 105.00 now. YEN & CHF outperform again in Asian session.
  • EquitiesUSA500 closed lower -11.66pts (-0.28%) (4118), US500FUTS at 4100 now. 4175 remains next key resistance
  • Yields 10-year yield dived into close 2.60%, down again to 2.54% now.
  • Oil – tanked to $93.00 from $101.80 highs on Friday.
  • Gold – spiked to $1780 before cooling to $1773 now. Support at $1770 & $1766.
  • Bitcoin also weaker trades at $22.8K now, from as high as $24.4K.
  • FX MarketsEURUSD rallied to test 1.0300 zone, USDJPY dived under 131.00 to 130.40 lows. Cable holds over 1.2200 and tests key 1.2260 resistance area.
Overnight – AUD Building Approvals better than expected (-0.7% vs. -5.3%), Commodity prices lower (14.1% vs. 24.3%) UK House inflation a tick lower at 0.1% m/m.

Today – Canadian Manufacturing PMI, New Zealand Unemployment, US JOLTS Report, Speeches from Fed’s Bullard, Evans & Mester. Earnings BP (out – EPS exceed by +26%, profits a monster £6.95bn), CAT, UBER, AirBnB, AMD, PayPal, Starbucks, Gilead, Marriott.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDJPY (-1.66%). Dovish RBA and Taiwan tensions hit the key most risk sensitive pair. Collapses from 92.500 to 90.75 lows. MAs aligned lower, MACD histogram negative & falling, RSI 22.5, OS & falling, H1 ATR 0.294, Daily ATR 1.198.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFM

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,334
2
74
Date : 3rd August 2022.

Market Update – August 3 – Market “Pushed and Pulled”.


geopolitcs-696x364.jpg


The market was pushed and pulled by geopolitical risks and uncertainties, earnings ups and downs, Fed tightening angst and recession risks.

USDIndex bounced to 106.38
currently steady at 106, Yields spiked sharply higher with selling persisting into the close (10yr 2.746% having challenged 2.51% overnight) dragged by hawkish Fedspeak and the safe arrival of Pelosi. The safe-haven Yen continued its slide. US Stocks ended in the red. Asian markets mixed as China has its warheads trained on Taiwan but on the flipside markets are trying to weigh growth risks and the Fed outlook (Hang Seng & Nikkei 0.5%, CSI 300 -0.2%). European FUTS also lower (-0.6%). Oil at $94, Gold holds over $1750 and BTC down under $23k.

Fed’s Mester said below trend growth is not a bad outcome, and it is necessary to get inflation under control. Fed President Daly said the FOMC is likely to raise rates and keep them high for a while, in her comments in a LinkedIn interview – ‘Nowhere Near’ Finished With Inflation Fight.

Data: A surprisingly strong bounce in German exports left the German trade balance with a solid surplus. China Services PMI readings also looked pretty strong – acceleration in activity. Swiss CPI inflation held steady at 3.4% y/y.

  • USDIndex managed to climb back over 106.000 but it was weaker overnight, holding the 105.000 handle for a third straight day. YEN has given up some of its haven bid & EUR and GBP have also slumped.
  • EquitiesUSA30 tumbled -1.23% (32.4K), USA500 off -0.67% (4.1K) and USA100 -0.16% lower (below 13K).
  • Yields 10-year has already corrected -3.5 bp at 2.71% today and the 10-year Bund yield is down -1.8 bp at 0.79%.
  • Oil – steady at $94.00 from $96.30 ahead of the OPEC+. It is likely to keep output unchanged in September, or raise it slightly.
  • Gold – rose in the morning to $1768 after a sharp decline yesterday.
  • Bitcoin directionless, at 22.98K.
  • FX MarketsEURUSD dip to 1.0155 zone, USDJPY is at 133.18, as haven flows into the Yen have receded. Cable turns below 1.2200 again.
Today – OPEC+ meeting, EU Retail Sales and US ISM Services. Earnings: CVS Health, Booking Holdings, Moderna, Regeneron etc.

2022-08-03_10-32-23.jpg



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) USDZAR (-0.70%) posted an evening start pattern this morning at 16.70. MAs flattened, MACD lines held negative , RSI 53, OS & falling, H4 ATR 0.12128, Daily ATR 0.26199.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
 

HFM

Master Trader
Jun 26, 2014
2,334
2
74
Date : 8th August 2022.

Market Update – August 8 – USD holds post NFP bid.



USDIndex held onto NFP inspired bid trades at 106.40, from 106.80. NFP big beat across the board; headline more than double expectations at 528K, June revised 26K higher, Unemployment fell (3.5%) and Earnings rose (5.2%) = pressure back on Fed for 75bp hike in Sept. Recession – what Recession? US Stocks slipped led by tech. TSLA –6.6% (3-1 stock split 25/8), TWTR +3.56%, META –2.00%, LYFT +16.8% ($1bn profit expected 2024), AMZN -1.2% (to buy iRobot $1.7bn) Asian markets mixed (Hang Seng -1.02%, Nikkei +0.29%). European FUTS also mixed. Yields rallied (10yr 2.8287%) Oil under $90, Gold under $1770 and BTC moved up to $23.5k.

Berkshire Hathaway posted $43.8 bn loss on stock market declines. MUSK wants TWTR deal to go ahead if they can prove the % of real accounts, wants public debate with TWTR CEO. FED’s Bowman expects “more 75bp hikes”. CFTC Net Longs in USD reduced last week. Chinese exports hit record 5- mth high Trade balance back over $101 bn. Biden gets his $430bn Climate, Healthcare & Tax Bill through the Senate, China continues exercises around Taiwan for 5th day.

Week Ahead – Highlight will be US CPI on Wednesday which is expected to decline to 0.2% m/m and 8.7% y/y.

  • USDIndex rallied to 106.80 post NFP holds at 106.45 now. YEN underperformed in Asian session.
  • EquitiesUSA500 closed lower -6.75 pts (+-0.16%) (4145), US500FUTS at 4150 now. 4175 key resistance remains. S&P500 gained +0.4% for the week, NASDAQ +2.2%.
  • Yields 10-year yield rallied into close. The 2/10yr. yield curve is now 40bp inverted. 30yr back over 3.00%.
  • Oil – declined to $86.96 Friday back to $89.60 now and remains under $90.00.
  • Gold – topped at $1794 (50 day MA) in early Friday trades before tanking to under $1770. Trades at $1775 now, 20-day MA $1757.
  • Bitcoin dipped to $22.7K Friday, before strong weekend rally, trades at $23.7k now.
  • FX MarketsEURUSD down to 1.0177, USDJPY rallied 1.57% on Friday – trades at 135.50 now. Cable tested to important 1.2000 zone on Friday – recovered to 1.2080 now.
Overnight – JPY Bank Lending better than expected, but Econ. Sentiment sank to 43.8 from 52.9. NZD Inflation Expectations slipped to 3.07% from 3.29% & CHF Unemployment in-line at 2.2%.

Today – EZ Sentix Investor Confidence, Earnings from BioNTech, Barrick Gold, Porsche & Siemens Energy.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDJPY (+0.68%). Bounced from 92.50 support on Friday to test key resistance and 7-day high today at 94.00. MAs aligned higher, MACD histogram positive and signal line rising, RSI 69.44 rising & testing OB, H1 ATR 0.192, Daily ATR 1.218.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HFMarkets

Disclaimer:
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.