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Fundamental Market Analysis for September 4, 2026 EURUSD​

Event to watch today:

15:30 EET. USD - Unemployment Rate

EURUSD:

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​

The euro maintains support due to an improving economic backdrop in the eurozone. Manufacturing activity expanded at its fastest pace in over four years in August, while the services sector remained in growth territory. These figures reinforce the assessment of economic resilience and allow the market to factor in the possibility of an ECB rate hike in September.

The main factor for the current session remains the weakening expectations of further Fed policy tightening. Following more measured comments from a representative of the US regulator, the probability of a September rate hike has decreased, while expected slowdown in wage growth points to easing inflationary pressure from the labor market. As a result, the dollar lost some of its recent support ahead of the employment report publication.

The combination of more resilient business activity in the eurozone and softened expectations regarding the Fed creates room for further EURUSD growth. Strong US employment data could bring demand back for the dollar, but until such confirmation appears, the fundamental advantage remains with the euro.

Trade idea: BUY 1.1625, SL 1.1595, TP 1.1700

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Weekly Review: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT | 11 September 2026​

XAUUSD: SELL 4415.00, SL 4455.00, TP 4315.00​

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​

Gold starts the week under pressure after strong US employment data increased the likelihood of Fed policy tightening. Rising US bond yields reduce the attractiveness of the metal, which does not generate interest income.

Geopolitical tensions support safe-haven demand and may limit XAUUSD declines. However, US inflation data will be decisive: as long as the market allows for a Fed rate hike, the monetary factor retains its advantage and supports the selling scenario.

Trading idea: SELL 4415.00, SL 4455.00, TP 4315.00

#SP500: SELL 7719, SL 7779, TP 7569​

The US stock market enters the week amid rising yields and increasing expectations for a Fed rate hike. Expensive oil intensifies inflation risks, so high borrowing costs may continue to weigh on stocks and company valuations for longer.

A strong labor market supports economic prospects but simultaneously reduces room for regulator easing. If inflation data strengthen the probability of a rate hike, the index's sensitivity to yields will increase, maintaining the base case of a #SP500 decline.

Trading idea: SELL 7719, SL 7779, TP 7569

#BRENT: BUY 96.80, SL 93.80, TP 104.30​

Brent maintains support following new escalation between the US and Iran, affecting tankers and warships. Reduced movement through the Strait of Hormuz raises the risk of disruptions on the route through which a significant portion of global oil trade passes.

Gains over the previous week require caution, but the new escalation indicates that the risk premium remains. OPEC+'s decision not to change October policy does not offset the threat of restricted Middle Eastern supplies, so the buying idea for #BRENT remains the base case.

Trading idea: BUY 96.80, SL 93.80, TP 104.30

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Elliott wave analysis of the market for September 8, 2026 BTCUSD​

BTCUSD: BUY 80550, SL 78600, TP 86500.

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Bitcoin has so far failed to continue its strengthening. The start of the trading week turned out to be difficult for it; there is pressure on the asset that it is not handling very well. As a result, we see the price dip slightly.

But this is not critical, the situation is within the bounds of a correction, so the previously considered scenario still remains relevant.

It is still assumed that the impulse, which is wave 5, will develop. For this, a decisive upward leap is necessary; it may happen in the near future, and at the update of the local maximum, one can enter buy trades.

Investment idea: BUY 80550, SL 78600, TP 86500.

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Fundamental Market Analysis for September 9, 2026 GBPUSD​

GBPUSD:

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The pound starts the session in a mixed internal context after statements from Bank of England representatives. Andrew Bailey emphasized that a new rate hike is not predetermined, while Dave Ramsden described internal inflationary pressures as relatively moderate. These signals are capping the pound, although expensive oil raises the risk of renewed inflation acceleration and limits room for policy easing.

Dollar weakness remains a more significant short-term factor. Its index fell to a nearly two-week low, and the market is awaiting Friday's US inflation data, which could alter the assessment of the Fed's September decision. With no clear bias toward a rate hike over a pause scenario, the dollar struggles to form a sustainable recovery against major currencies.

For GBPUSD, the local backdrop is less favorable than for the euro, making growth potential appear more limited. However, cautious signals from the Bank of England have not yet outweighed the broader dollar momentum, and rising energy prices reduce the likelihood of the British regulator quickly shifting to a more dovish policy. Under current conditions, moderate GBPUSD strengthening remains the priority.

Trading idea: BUY 1.3545, SL 1.3510, TP 1.3615

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Analysis of margin levels for September 10, 2026 XAUUSD​

XAUUSD: SELL 4392.60-4447.80, TP1-4337.40, TP2-4183.70.

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Long-term trend: flat. The maximum accumulation of volumes for the current contract is located in the range of quotes 4380.00–4430.00. Currently, investment operations on XAUUSD are being carried out within the specified range, which indicates temporary uncertainty.

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Medium-term trend: short. The maximum accumulation of volumes for the medium-term trend is located in the range of quotes 4395.00-4413.00. Currently, investment operations on XAUUSD are being carried out within the specified range, which indicates temporary uncertainty.

The area of favorable prices for selling from the point of view of margin support is located between zones 1/4 and 1/2 built from the minimum of 08.09.2026.

Quote of the lower boundary of zone 1/4–4392.60.

Quote of the lower boundary of zone 1/2–4447.80.

Intraday targets: update of the minimums from 08.09.2026–4337.40.

Medium-term targets: test of the lower boundary of GWCZ-4183.70.

​

Trading recommendations: sales from the range of favorable prices when forming a reversal pattern.

Sell: 4392.60-4447.80, Take Profit 1–4337.40, Take Profit 2–4183.70.

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Fundamental Market Analysis for September 11, 2026 USDJPY​

Event to watch today:

15:30 EET. USD - Consumer Price Index

USDJPY:

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The yen is receiving fundamental support from fresh data on Japan. Wholesale inflation in August rose by 7.6% year-on-year and exceeded market expectations, strengthening the case for the Bank of Japan to raise rates at its meeting next week. The limit on USDJPY growth remains authorities' attention to the currency market and their willingness to support its orderly functioning.

However, in the current session, the American side of the pair remains the stronger factor. Yields on US ten-year bonds have approached 5%, and the market estimates the probability of a Fed rate hike next week at approximately 70%. At the same time, demand for the dollar is supported by deteriorating risk sentiment against the backdrop of expensive oil and tensions in the Middle East.

The yen rally in early September has already significantly narrowed the gap in policy assessments between the two central banks, while the last few hours have seen a recovery in the dollar. Expectations of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan and the risk of authorities' actions limit the potential of USDJPY, so the scenario requires caution. However, ahead of the release of US inflation data, the combination of high US yields and current dollar demand maintains the advantage for moderate pair growth.

Trading idea: BUY 154.60, SL 154.10, TP 155.65

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Weekly Review: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT | 18 September 2026​

XAUUSD: SELL 4335.00, SL 4370.00, TP 4255.00​

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The main driver of the week for gold is the Fed meeting against the backdrop of accelerating inflation and a new surge in oil prices. The market assesses a high probability of an interest rate hike, while higher yields on US Treasury bonds reduce the attractiveness of the asset, which does not generate interest income.

Geopolitical tensions maintain safe-haven demand for the metal and can restrain declines. However, as expectations for tighter Fed policy are strengthening faster than demand for safe-haven assets, the weekly fundamental scenario remains in favor of moderate pressure on XAUUSD.

Trading Idea: SELL 4335.00, SL 4370.00, TP 4255.00

#SP500: SELL 7660, SL 7715, TP 7530​

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For #SP500, the main event of the week will be the Fed decision: accelerating inflation and expensive oil have strengthened expectations of an interest rate hike. Higher borrowing costs and Treasury bond yields near multi-year highs increase the sensitivity of stocks to tight signals from the regulator.

A separate risk is associated with the technology sector: a new round of discussion about AI development rates has increased pressure on related companies in Asia. Strong earnings expectations limit the scale of the decline, but this week the fundamental background remains unfavorable for #SP500.

Trading Idea: SELL 7660, SL 7715, TP 7530

#BRENT: BUY 104.05, SL 101.55, TP 109.05​

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Brent retains support from supply risks following attacks on Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure and shipping complications in the region. A temporary halt to a key east-west pipeline intensifies concerns about the availability of export routes given limited movement through the Strait of Hormuz.

Weakening global demand assessments remain a restraining factor, and strong oil growth last week already reduced some of the further potential. Nevertheless, the risk of new supply disruptions still maintains a fundamental advantage for the #BRENT growth scenario during the week.

Trading Idea: BUY 104.05, SL 101.55, TP 109.05

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Analysis of margin levels for September 15, 2026 XAUUSD​

XAUUSD: SELL 4306.11-4360.01, TP1-4252.21, TP2-4086.71.

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Long-term trend: long. The maximum accumulation of volumes for the current contract is located in the range with quotes 4395.00–4430.00. Currently, investment operations on XAUUSD are being carried out below this range, which indicates weakness among buyers.



Medium-term trend: short. The maximum accumulation of volumes for the medium-term trend is located in the ranges with quotes 4395.00-4413.00 and 4359.00-4373.00. Currently, investment operations on XAUUSD are being carried out below these ranges, which indicates strength among sellers.

The area of favorable prices for selling from the perspective of margin support is located between zones 1/4 and 1/2 constructed from the minimum of 14.09.2026.

Quote of the lower boundary of zone 1/4 – 4306.11.

Quote of the lower boundary of zone 1/2 – 4360.01.

Intraday targets: update of minimums from 14.09.2026 – 4252.21.

Medium-term targets: test of the lower boundary of the GWCZ – 4086.71.



Trading recommendations: sellouts from the range of favorable prices upon formation of a reversal pattern.

Sell: 4306.11-4360.01, Take Profit 1 – 4252.21, Take Profit 2 – 4086.71.

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Elliott wave analysis of the market for September 17, 2026 BTCUSD​

BTCUSD: BUY 79500, SL 77300, TP 90000.

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Bitcoin continues to remain under pressure from which it is trying to break out. This attempt is obviously the reason for the observed weak growth of the asset, and therefore, with a high degree of probability, it has a corrective nature.

In this case, further on, this growth will quickly be replaced by another sharp downward price movement, which will lead to the completion of the development of the assumed corrective wave (iv).

There is no need to rush to make any trading decisions in this situation. However, since the downside potential within the forming correction remains insignificant, it is recommended to start looking for possible entry points for buying.

At the moment, the most safe level for this decision is 79500.

Investment idea: BUY 79500, SL 77300, TP 90000.

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[Fresh Forex]

Fundamental Market Analysis for September 18, 2026 USDJPY​

Event to watch today:

09:30 EET. JPY - Bank of Japan Press Conference

USDJPY:

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The Bank of Japan raised its rate from 1.00% to 1.25%, reaching the highest level in 31 years. The decision was made by a majority of seven to two and aimed at limiting the risk of exceeding the inflation target. However, the hike was already expected by the market, so the fact of tightening did not provide the yen with sustained strengthening, and USD/JPY remained above 156.

The interest rate differential between the US and Japan has narrowed but remains significant. The Fed raised its target range to 3.75–4.00% and sent a stronger signal regarding future actions. Against this backdrop, carry trades continue to support the dollar, especially if Bank of Japan comments do not convince the market of readiness to accelerate subsequent hikes.

Upside potential for USD/JPY is limited by further normalization of Bank of Japan policy and authorities' sensitivity to yen weakness. Nevertheless, the initial reaction shows that the anticipated rate hike was largely already priced in. As long as the US regulator maintains a higher rate and allows for further tightening, the basic fundamental scenario remains in favor of moderate pair growth.

Trade idea: BUY 156.20, SL 155.80, TP 157.20

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Weekly Review: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT | 25 September 2026​

XAUUSD: SELL 4370.00, SL 4400.00, TP 4295.00​

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The main factor for gold this week remains the Fed's tightening policy. After raising the rate to 3.75–4.00%, the market anticipates further regulatory steps, and the yield on US ten-year Treasury bonds remains around 5%. High yields on interest-rate instruments limit the attractiveness of gold.

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East sustain safe-haven demand and can restrain XAUUSD from falling. However, as long as inflation risks support expectations of further rate hikes, the monetary-fiscal factor remains more significant. Against this backdrop, the baseline weekly scenario suggests downward pressure on gold.

Trading idea: SELL 4370.00, SL 4400.00, TP 4295.00

#SP500: SELL 7675, SL 7725, TP 7550​

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The US stock market begins the week between the resilience of the technology sector and rising borrowing costs. Following the Fed's rate hike, investors are assessing the probability of further policy tightening, while Treasury bond yields remain high. This creates pressure on company valuations and limits the potential of the broad market.

Demand for tech stocks and expectations of stable corporate earnings are currently mitigating this effect. Negotiations between the US and China could also support sentiment. Nevertheless, with yields remaining at elevated levels, the market's sensitivity to capital costs stays high, so the baseline scenario allows for a decline in #SP500.

Trading idea: SELL 7675, SL 7725, TP 7550

#BRENT: SELL 98.10, SL 100.10, TP 94.10​

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Brent starts the week lower amid signs of recovering supplies from Saudi Arabia and hopes for diplomatic contacts between the US and Iran. Saudi export flows increased in September, and shipments through the Strait of Hormuz remain steady. This reduces the immediate risk premium for supply disruptions.

However, the situation in the Middle East remains the main source of uncertainty: new attacks could quickly revive concerns about supply, and the IEA points to ongoing tension in the oil balance. Yet, given the current recovery of flows and sustained diplomatic expectations, the baseline weekly scenario allows for further declines in #BRENT.

Trading idea: SELL 98.10, SL 100.10, TP 94.10

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Analysis of margin levels for September 22, 2026 XAUUSD​

XAUUSD: BUY 4293.47-4347.77, TP1-4402.07, TP2-4561.37.

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Long-term trend: long. The maximum accumulation of volume for the current contract is located in the range with quotes 4390.00–4425.00. Currently, investment operations on XAUUSD are being executed below this range, indicating buyer weakness.

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Medium-term trend: long. The maximum accumulation of volume for the medium-term trend is located in the range with quotes 4366.00-4375.00. Currently, investment operations on XAUUSD are being executed below this range, indicating buyer weakness.

The area of favorable buy prices from the perspective of margin support is located between zones 1/4 and 1/2 built from the maximum of 09/18/2026.

Quote of the upper boundary of zone 1/4–4347.77.

Quote of the upper boundary of zone 1/2–4293.47.

Intraday targets: update of the maximums from 09/18/2026–4402.07.

Medium-term targets: test of the lower boundary of the GWCZ–4561.37.

​

Trading recommendations: buys from the favorable price range upon formation of a reversal pattern.

Buy: 4293.47–4347.77, Take Profit 1–4402.07, Take Profit 2–4561.37.

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Fundamental Market Analysis for September 23, 2026 GBPUSD​

GBPUSD:

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For the pound, the key question today is the state of the British economy after the Bank of England's decision to keep rates unchanged. Upcoming preliminary business activity indicators will help assess how resilient domestic demand is against the backdrop of expensive energy. Until their publication, the British currency lacks a confirmed new impulse capable of outweighing the dollar.

The decline in oil prices somewhat alleviates concerns about the UK's energy import costs. At the same time, it may reduce the need for further rate hikes by the Bank of England. Therefore, improved supply conditions alone do not provide clear support for the pound.

The US dollar is supported by Fed concerns about inflation and expectations of further policy tightening. As long as British data do not change the comparative assessment of the two currencies, GBPUSD remains vulnerable to downside risks. Significantly stronger business activity data would become the main risk to this scenario.

Trading idea: SELL 1.3323, SL 1.3353, TP 1.3251

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Elliott wave analysis of the market for September 24, 2026 BTCUSD​

BTCUSD: FLAT.

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​

We did not see a continuation of the growth during the past trading day, although Bitcoin tried very hard. In the end, there was not enough strength for this final push and the price went in the opposite direction.

At the same time, the opportunity for another update of the local maximum, along with it, for the full completion of the development of the impulse in wave (v), is still preserved, as there has been no intersection with the first wave yet.

It is quite possible that buyers will attempt to make this move in the near future, so selling is not recommended for now.

In the current situation, it is worth watching how events will develop and acting when a clear picture appears.

Investment idea: FLAT.

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Fundamental Market Analysis for September 25, 2026 USDJPY​

USDJPY:

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USD/JPY remains near elevated levels after several sessions of gains. The pair's main support comes from rising US Treasury yields: the yield on 10-year bonds has approached its highest levels since 2007, and the market has strengthened expectations for a new Fed rate hike. Such dynamics are particularly sensitive for the yen, as the yield differential is once again working in favor of the dollar.

The Bank of Japan raised its interest rate to 1.25% last week, but the decision did not provide sustained strengthening of the yen. Investors focused on the absence of a clear signal regarding further rapid steps and on disagreements within the board. This limits the effect of policy tightening, especially against the backdrop of rising US yields and persistent demand for the US currency.

A restraining factor remains the risk of action by Japanese authorities: following the Bank of Japan meeting, reports emerged about checks on exchange rates, and recent interventions make the market sensitive to yen weakness. Therefore, the upside potential for USD/JPY appears more limited than the dollar's momentum against the euro and pound. With no new confirmed actions from Tokyo yet, the base case still allows for cautious continuation of the pair's growth.

Trading idea: BUY 158.70, SL 158.35, TP 159.40

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Weekly Review: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT | 02 October 2026​

XAUUSD: SELL 4215.00, SL 4250.00, TP 4130.00​

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Gold starts the week under pressure from high US Treasury yields and expectations of further Fed policy tightening. Following the September rate hike, the market is particularly sensitive to PCE inflation and employment data: strong figures can support the dollar and limit the metal's attractiveness.

Geopolitical tensions maintain safe-haven demand and may cap declines, but currently yield to monetary factors. With high yields and hawkish Fed expectations persisting, the baseline weekly scenario remains tilted towards moderate downward pressure on XAUUSD.

Trade Idea: SELL 4215.00, SL 4250.00, TP 4130.00

#SP500: SELL 7790, SL 7845, TP 7660​

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For the US market, the key factor for the week remains the cost of money. US 10-year bond yields remain near multi-year highs, and the market allows for another Fed rate hike. This makes company valuations more sensitive to PCE, employment, and business activity data.

Demand for the technology sector and steady corporate earnings expectations continue to support the index. However, expensive borrowing and the risk of renewed yield growth limit room for a broad rally. Given the current backdrop, the baseline scenario allows for a decline in #SP500.

Trade Idea: SELL 7790, SL 7845, TP 7660

#BRENT: BUY 98.50, SL 96.00, TP 104.00​

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Brent enters the week with an elevated geopolitical premium after a quick resolution between the US and Iran once again came into question. Risks around the Strait of Hormuz persist, and new disruptions could quickly intensify supply concerns and support oil prices.

A restraining factor has been the recovery in Middle East exports: Saudi Arabia and other producers' shipments rose noticeably in September. This limits upside potential but does not eliminate the risk of new logistical disruptions. With tensions persisting, the baseline weekly scenario remains tilted towards buying #BRENT.

Trade Idea: BUY 98.50, SL 96.00, TP 104.00

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Elliott wave analysis of the market for September 29, 2026 BTCUSD​

BTCUSD: SELL 82350, SL 83200, TP 74500.

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The continuation of the upward movement in the considered trading asset seems to be postponed indefinitely. This is due to the beginning of a corrective decline, which Bitcoin entered after several unsuccessful attempts to resume growth.

In this case, the impulse at this stage of development can be considered complete. It is now worth paying attention to short trades. The target of the movement within this correction could be the minimum of wave (iv), which will be slightly updated, and the price will immediately start moving back up.

Thus, there is a potentially interesting short trade.

Investment idea: SELL 82350, SL 83200, TP 74500.

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