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[Fresh Forex]

Market Fundamental Analysis for August 7, 2026 EURUSD​

Event to watch today:

15:30 EET. USD - Non-Farm Employment Change

EURUSD:
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​

The euro begins the session against a mixed domestic backdrop. Eurozone inflation accelerated to 2.9%, while the core rate rose to 2.5%, maintaining expectations of further ECB policy tightening. Second-quarter economic growth was more resilient than forecast. However, the unexpected decline in Italian industrial production shows that the recovery remains uneven and is not providing the euro with an independent source of strength against the dollar.

The main driver of the day is the US labor market report. The market expects employment growth to accelerate following the weak June result, while unemployment is forecast to remain at 4.2%. The Federal Reserve kept its policy rate within the 3.50–3.75% range in July and continues to emphasize that future decisions will depend on incoming data. Ahead of the release, this supports cautious demand for the dollar amid persistent inflationary pressure.

The euro is receiving support from expectations surrounding the ECB, but this factor has already been largely priced in and is constrained by the uneven economic picture across the region. Unless US employment data comes in significantly below expectations, the dollar may retain the advantage. The baseline scenario allows for a moderate decline in EURUSD, while a weak US report remains the main risk to the selling idea.

Trading idea: SELL 1.1525, SL 1.1555, TP 1.1455

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Weekly overview: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT | 14 August 2026​

XAUUSD: BUY 4330.00, SL 4300.00, TP 4397.50​

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​

Gold starts the week following a strong rally, as a weaker US employment report reduced expectations of an imminent Federal Reserve rate hike and supported lower US Treasury yields. The main test will be the July US inflation data. Moderate figures could sustain demand for gold, while stronger price pressures may renew pressure through interest rate expectations and the US dollar.

XAUUSD has already gained more than 7% over the previous week, so further upside requires fresh confirmation. Geopolitical uncertainty surrounding the Persian Gulf continues to support demand for defensive assets, while the current reassessment of Federal Reserve policy keeps the baseline buying scenario intact.

Trading idea: BUY 4330.00, SL 4300.00, TP 4397.50

#SP500: BUY 7785, SL 7745, TP 7885​

​

#SP500 starts the week after a new record close, supported by lower expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike and strong corporate results. The earnings season is nearing its end, while profit growth remains solid, helping sustain demand for equities following gains in recent sessions.

The key risk will be US inflation. A strong reading could push US Treasury yields higher and increase the cost of capital. If the inflation data do not reinforce concerns about higher rates, the combination of resilient earnings and softer Federal Reserve expectations should keep the upward scenario for the index in place.

Trading idea: BUY 7785, SL 7745, TP 7885

#BRENT: BUY 84.40, SL 82.40, TP 88.80​

​

Brent starts the week recovering amid uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, where tanker traffic remains restricted and the terms for fully reopening the route have yet to be agreed. This factor supports the risk premium and keeps the threat of supply disruptions relevant for the oil market.

Supply remains a limiting factor: OPEC+ agreed to increase production quotas for September, while the latest EIA data showed an increase in US crude oil inventories. However, until there is confirmed progress on shipping, disruption risks remain the main short-term driver, keeping the baseline buying scenario in place.

Trading idea: BUY 84.40, SL 82.40, TP 88.80

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Elliott wave analysis of the market for August 11, 2026 BTCUSD​

BTCUSD: BUY 65450, SL 63500, TP 75000

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​

Bitcoin is starting to come back to life. The price made a sharp move lower. As previously discussed, before resuming the broader uptrend, the market could attempt a manipulation move in the opposite direction. This may be exactly what we are seeing now.

The decline can therefore be interpreted as a false breakout. If so, buyers may become active in the near future and quickly push the price back toward the levels from which the decline began.

The uptrend should then resume and develop into an impulsive structure, as Wave 3 is expected to unfold.

For this reason, long positions may be considered once the price breaks above the nearest local high formed before the recent decline.

Investment idea: BUY 65450, SL 63500, TP 75000.

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Market Fundamental Analysis for August 12, 2026 GBPUSD​

Event to watch today:

15:30 EET. USD – Consumer Price Index

GBPUSD:

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The pound is receiving limited support from fresh signs that the UK labor market is stabilizing. A July industry survey showed that the decline in permanent hiring had come to an end and that starting salary growth had accelerated, reducing the risk of a sharp deterioration in domestic conditions. These signals matter for the Bank of England, but one survey alone is not enough to generate a sustained GBPUSD impulse.

The UK market’s attention is already shifting toward second-quarter GDP data due on Thursday. Until then, sterling remains dependent on the broader external environment and expectations for Federal Reserve policy. Today’s US inflation report could alter the market’s assessment of the September decision, while higher oil prices preserve the risk of more persistent price pressures and limit the scope for a rapid weakening of the dollar.

Local support for the pound is currently more likely to soften the pressure than reverse the pair’s direction. The US dollar impulse remains moderately positive, while UK data capable of materially changing expectations for the Bank of England are still ahead. Unless US inflation comes in significantly below expectations, the dollar may retain the advantage, supporting a downside scenario for GBPUSD.

Trading idea: SELL 1.3505, SL 1.3540, TP 1.3415

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Analysis of margin levels for August 13, 2026 XAUUSD​

XAUUSD: BUY 4339.15-4394.25, TP1-4449.35, TP2-4658.05.

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Long-term trend: bullish. The largest concentration of volume in the current contract is located within the 4290.00–4330.00 range. At present, trading activity in XAUUSD is taking place above this range, indicating buyer strength.

​

Medium-term trend: bullish. The largest concentration of medium-term volume is located within the 4310.00-4335.00 and 4395.00-4420.00 ranges. At present, trading activity in XAUUSD is taking place above these ranges, indicating buyer strength.

From a margin requirements perspective, the favorable buying area is located between the 1/4 and 1/2 zones drawn from the high of 13.08.2026.

The upper boundary of the 1/4 zone is 4394.25.

The upper boundary of the 1/2 zone is 4339.15.

Intraday targets: a renewal of the highs from 13.08.2026 at 4449.35.

Medium-term targets: a test of the lower boundary of the GWCZ at 4658.05.



Trading recommendation: consider buying from the favorable price range if a reversal pattern forms.

Buy: 4339.15–4394.25, Take Profit 1–4449.35, Take Profit 2–4658.05.

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[Fresh Forex]

Market Fundamental Analysis for August 14, 2026 USDJPY​

Event to watch today:

15:30 EET. USD – Retail Sales Change

USDJPY:
​

The yen has returned to the spotlight after USDJPY moved back toward the 159.4 area. Markets now put the probability of a Bank of Japan rate hike in September at around 76%, significantly higher than at the end of July. The yen is also receiving support from the risk of renewed official action, as Japanese authorities remain prepared to respond to excessive currency weakness following the recent coordinated intervention.

Pressure from the dollar side has increased following softer US inflation data. Producer prices did not rise in July, while the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September fell to around 35%. This weakens support for USDJPY from US interest rate expectations and makes the dollar’s previous advantage less sustainable, particularly as markets anticipate further tightening by the Bank of Japan.

The main risk to a decline in the pair comes from today’s US retail sales data and the possibility of market disappointment if the Bank of Japan fails to confirm a faster pace of rate increases. For the current session, however, the combination of weaker US dollar momentum, a high probability of a September Bank of Japan move, and the authorities’ sensitivity to yen weakness outweighs these risks. The base-case scenario therefore allows for a decline in USDJPY.

Trading idea: SELL 159.35, SL 159.75, TP 158.45

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[Fresh Forex]

Weekly Overview: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT | 21 August 2026​

XAUUSD: BUY 4390.00, SL 4360.00, TP 4462.50​

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​

Gold starts the week supported by a weaker US dollar and reduced expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September. Softer US inflation and retail sales data are easing monetary policy pressure, while tensions in the Middle East continue to support demand for defensive assets.

At the same time, XAUUSD has already posted a significant advance, increasing the risk of profit-taking. However, central bank demand and persistent geopolitical uncertainty continue to support the metal. As long as Federal Reserve expectations remain softer, the base-case scenario allows for a moderate continuation of gold’s advance.

Trading idea: BUY 4390.00, SL 4360.00, TP 4462.50

#SP500: BUY 7790, SL 7730, TP 7930​

#SP500 enters the week near record levels, with the reduced probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September remaining the main positive factor. A strong earnings season also provides support, as most companies in the index have exceeded profit expectations, helping to sustain investor interest in equities.

Risks are linked to elevated US Treasury yields and high oil prices, which could intensify inflation concerns. This week, the market will also assess the Federal Reserve minutes and earnings reports from major retailers. As long as the corporate backdrop remains resilient and interest rate expectations stay softer, the base-case scenario supports further gains in #SP500.

Trading idea: BUY 7790, SL 7730, TP 7930

#BRENT: BUY 88.60, SL 86.60, TP 93.60​

Brent starts the week after a strong advance, with the risk of supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz remaining the main driver. Shipping activity in the region has declined noticeably, while the lack of progress in US-Iran negotiations is preserving the geopolitical premium and limiting the scope for a sustained decline in oil prices.

The upside is constrained by expectations of higher global supply and the possibility of shipping flows normalizing. However, over the current weekly horizon, the immediate risk to supply still outweighs medium-term pressure. If the situation around the Strait of Hormuz does not improve materially, the fundamental backdrop should continue to support Brent.

Trading idea: BUY 88.60, SL 86.60, TP 93.60

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[Fresh Forex]

Analysis of margin levels for August 18, 2026 #NQ100​

#NQ100: BUY 29695.0-29972.5, TP1-30250.0, TP2-30995.2.

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Long-term trend: bearish. The largest concentration of volume in the current contract is located within the 29600.0–29850.0 range. At present, trading activity in #NQ100 is taking place within this range, indicating temporary uncertainty.



Medium-term trend: bullish. The largest concentration of medium-term volume is located within the 29572.0–29708.0 range. At present, trading activity in #NQ100 is taking place above this range, indicating buyer strength.

From a margin requirements perspective, the favorable buying area is located between the 1/4 and 1/2 zones drawn from the high of 17.08.2026.

The upper boundary of the 1/4 zone is 29972.5.

The upper boundary of the 1/2 zone is 29695.0.

Intraday targets: a retest of the highs from 17.08.2026 at 30250.0.

Medium-term targets: a test of the lower boundary of the GWCZ at 30995.2.



Investment recommendations: consider buying from the favorable price range if a reversal pattern forms.

Buy: 29695.0-29972.5, Take Profit 1-30250.0, Take Profit 2-30995.2.

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[Fresh Forex]

AI Has Arrived in MetaTrader 5: Trading Is Changing!​

MetaTrader 5 has received one of its biggest feature updates in recent years. The platform now integrates a full-fledged AI Assistant with support for the Model Context Protocol (MCP), allowing it to work directly with market data, the trading terminal, and MetaEditor. A subsequent update expanded the AI’s capabilities, enabling it to interact with chart indicators as well.

Unlike a regular chatbot, the new assistant can independently break a task down into a sequence of actions and use MetaTrader 5 tools to complete it. According to MetaQuotes, in just three weeks after its launch, users processed more than 1 trillion tokens through the free MQL5 Lite model, highlighting strong interest in the new feature among traders and developers.

What can AI now do in MetaTrader 5?​

• Analyze the market. AI Assistant has access to quotes and charts and can assess the current market situation for an instrument, analyze price history, open positions, and completed trades. The assistant can identify risky positions and generate analytical reports.
• Work with charts. Following the Build 6090 update, AI gained the ability to add indicators directly to charts, as well as access a list of available indicators and their parameters. This makes it possible to use natural language for more advanced technical analysis.
• Create trading robots. In MetaEditor, the assistant can write an MQL5 program based on a text description, identify errors in existing code, make changes, compile the program, and check the result. In other words, AI can now assist not only with individual code fragments but also with entire projects.
• Connect external AI systems. Thanks to MCP, MetaTrader 5 can connect compatible solutions, including OpenAI Codex and Claude Code. Users can also use their own API keys for OpenAI, Anthropic, Gemini, DeepSeek, Ollama, and other providers.

The developers have paid particular attention to controlling trading operations. Users can completely prohibit AI from executing such actions, allow them, or require mandatory manual confirmation. This means the final decision on a trade remains with the trader.

How to use the new functionality:

• Use the desktop version of MT5 Build 6090 on Windows 10/11.
• Go to Help → About and check the build number. You need at least Build 6060, while Build 6090 or newer is recommended. The assistant is disabled on Windows 7.
• Log in to your MQL5.community account via Tools → Options → Community. This is a separate account and is not the same as your trading account login.
• Go to Tools → Options → AI Assistant.

For market analysis, simply open AI Assistant in the terminal and enter a request in natural language, for example: “Analyze EURUSD on H1, identify the trend and the nearest support and resistance levels.” The assistant can also analyze open positions, trade history, and instruments available in Market Watch.

Use the new MetaTrader 5 capabilities in your trading! The updated platform offers a more advanced set of tools for market analysis, algorithmic trading, and working with AI.

Open a new MT5 account​

 

[Fresh Forex]

Elliott wave analysis of the market for August 20, 2026 BTCUSD​

BTCUSD: BUY 70000, SL 67500, TP 75000.

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Bitcoin has finally produced the strong directional move that had been anticipated for quite some time. The price surged higher, exactly as expected. This move is most likely driven by the beginning of Wave 3 of (iii).

The upside potential is far from exhausted. In the near term, the price is likely to continue its strong advance toward the previously established target. However, 75,000 may not be the ultimate limit. If buyers gain further momentum, Bitcoin could potentially accelerate beyond 80,000, making the current setup particularly attractive for long positions.

Therefore, previously opened long positions should continue to be held. Additional positions in the same direction may also be considered.

Investment idea: BUY 70000, SL 67500, TP 75000.

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[Fresh Forex]

The U.S. already owes $40 trillion: Central Banks are increasingly turning to gold​

U.S. government debt has exceeded $40 trillion for the first time, once again raising investor concerns about the sustainability of American public finances. At the same time, yields on long-term U.S. government bonds recently climbed to levels near their highest in almost 20 years, while the U.S. Treasury had to increase its buyback operations to support market liquidity.

Against this backdrop, gold (XAUUSD) received a new boost. On August 19, XAUUSD rose by more than 4%, while on August 20 the price climbed as high as $4,527 per ounce — its highest level since early June.



Why gold is attracting more institutional capital again:

• Foreign demand for U.S. government debt is declining. In June, foreign investors' holdings of U.S. government bonds fell from $9.371 trillion to $9.299 trillion. China reduced its holdings by as much as 4% to $633.4 billion, the lowest level since September 2008. Japan and the United Kingdom also reduced their positions.
• Private investors are becoming more cautious as well. Net purchases of U.S. government bonds by the foreign private sector over the past 12 months have fallen by more than 40%. This does not mean a mass rejection of the U.S. dollar, but it does indicate that attracting funds to finance America's growing debt is becoming more difficult.
• China is accelerating its gold accumulation. In July, the People's Bank of China increased its reserves by 20 tons — the largest monthly increase in almost three years. As a result, the country's official gold reserves reached a record 2,377.5 tons.
• China is not the only buyer. In the second quarter, central banks around the world purchased around 289 tons of gold — a record figure for the second quarter. In the first half of the year, the largest buyers included Poland, Uzbekistan, China, and Kazakhstan.

The reason for this diversification is becoming increasingly clear. Government bonds and currency reserves depend on the financial system of the issuing country and, amid geopolitical conflicts, can become instruments of sanctions or economic pressure. Physical gold is not another country's debt obligation, which is why it remains a way for central banks to reduce currency, credit, and political risks.

This trend is likely to continue. According to a World Gold Council survey, 89% of central banks expect global gold reserves to increase further, while a record 45% plan to increase their own holdings. At the same time, 74% of respondents believe the dollar's share of international reserves will decline over the next five years.

According to FreshForex analysts, the key factor for XAUUSD right now is not so much short-term price dynamics as the changing structure of global reserves. Reduced holdings of U.S. government debt by some major holders, combined with sustained gold purchases by central banks, show that the metal is increasingly being viewed as a long-term diversification instrument.

Diversify your risks​

 

[Fresh Forex]

Weekly Overview: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT | 28 August 2026​

XAUUSD: BUY 4620.00, SL 4580.00, TP 4720.00​

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Gold starts the week with sustained demand amid a weaker US dollar and renewed concerns about the stability of the US debt market. The US Treasury’s decision to increase buybacks of long-term bonds after the 30-year yield climbed toward multi-year highs has strengthened demand for defensive assets.

XAUUSD has already posted a notable advance, so further upside will depend on continued pressure on the dollar ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech and upcoming inflation data. Elevated yields limit gold’s potential, but as long as fiscal concerns persist, the base-case scenario remains supportive of further gains.

Trading idea: BUY 4620.00, SL 4580.00, TP 4720.00

#SP500: SELL 7690, SL 7750, TP 7570​

​

#SP500 enters the week after declining over the previous five sessions, with high borrowing costs remaining the main constraint. Long-term US Treasury yields are holding near multi-year highs, raising the hurdle for equity valuations and creating particular pressure on the technology sector.

The market is also awaiting Nvidia’s earnings report and Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech in Jackson Hole. Strong corporate results could support equities, but the combination of expensive financing, inflation risks, and uncertainty over interest rates leaves the weekly outlook vulnerable. The base-case scenario remains tilted toward further downside.

Trading idea: SELL 7690, SL 7750, TP 7570

#BRENT: BUY 93.20, SL 90.70, TP 98.20​

​

Brent starts the week after a strong advance, while the geopolitical risk premium remains elevated. The United States is preparing new sanctions against Iran and its trading partners, while vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains below pre-war levels. This keeps supply disruption risks in focus and supports oil prices.

Offsetting factors include higher US commercial crude inventories and the OPEC+ decision to raise September production quotas by 188,000 barrels per day. However, the IEA estimates that the market will remain in deficit during the third quarter. If supply constraints persist, the base-case weekly scenario allows for a recovery in #BRENT.

Trading idea: BUY 93.20, SL 90.70, TP 98.20

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[Fresh Forex]

Analysis of margin levels for August 25, 2026 XAUUSD​

XAUUSD: BUY 4581.24-4639.24, TP1-4697.24, TP2-4814.04.​

Long-term trend: bullish. The largest concentration of volume in the current contract is located within the 4360.00–4400.00 range. At present, trading activity in XAUUSD is taking place above this range, indicating buyer strength.

​

Medium-term trend: bullish. The largest concentration of medium-term volume is located within the 4380.00-4400.00 and 4570.00-4590.00 ranges. At present, trading activity in XAUUSD is taking place above these ranges, indicating buyer strength.

From a margin requirements perspective, the favorable buying area is located between the 1/4 and 1/2 zones drawn from the high of August 25, 2026.

The upper boundary of the 1/4 zone is 4639.24.

The upper boundary of the 1/2 zone is 4581.24.

Intraday target: a retest of the August 25, 2026 high at 4697.24.

Medium-term target: a test of the lower boundary of the GWCZ at 4814.04.

​

Trading recommendation: consider buying from the favorable price range once a reversal pattern forms.

Buy: 4581.24–4639.24, Take Profit 1–4697.24, Take Profit 2–4814.04.

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[Fresh Forex]

Market Fundamental Analysis for August 26, 2026 EURUSD​

Event to watch today:

15:30 EET. USD - Change in GDP quarter over quarter

EURUSD:

A month without swaps on majors! Learn more

​

The euro is receiving support from fresh signals that the ECB is prepared to raise interest rates at its September meeting. Recent reports indicate that the central bank is considering an increase from 2.25% to 2.50% amid inflation of around 3% and persistent pressure from energy prices. For EURUSD, this strengthens the relative appeal of the euro, particularly as the eurozone economy continues to show resilience.

Another factor supporting the European currency is the latest August business activity data. The eurozone composite PMI rose to 52.1, while the manufacturing sector recorded its strongest performance in several years. These figures do not eliminate risks to economic growth, but they reduce the likelihood that the ECB will be forced to abandon a tighter policy stance because of economic weakness.

The US dollar is trading without a clear directional impulse ahead of the release of the July Personal Consumption Expenditures price index. The US Dollar Index has paused after three consecutive days of gains, while investors are waiting for fresh signals on inflation and the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. Against this backdrop, euro-specific factors appear stronger, so the base-case scenario allows for a recovery in EURUSD if current ECB expectations remain intact.

Trading idea: BUY 1.1670, SL 1.1640, TP 1.1745

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[Fresh Forex]

Elliott wave analysis of the market for August 27, 2026 BTCUSD​

BTCUSD: BUY 79000, SL 78000, TP 83000.

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​

Bitcoin's continued growth is slightly delayed. The price decided to correct a bit, which led to a slight decline into the previous correction range.

From here, buyer activity begins to show again. The price is attempting to rise, and if this plan materializes, we will see an update of the local maximum.

This movement is caused by the formation of an extending wave (iii), in which the development of the internal wave 3 is completing.

Thus, the price has all chances for continued impulsive growth in the near future, so it is recommended to consider opening buy positions at current market prices.

Investment idea: BUY 79000, SL 78000, TP 83000.

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[Fresh Forex]

Market Fundamental Analysis for August 28, 2026 GBPUSD​

Event to watch today:

17:00 EET. USD - Federal Reserve Board Chair Kevin Warsh will deliver a speech

EURUSD:

A month without swaps on majors! Learn more
​

The pound enters Friday's session after declining to weekly lows, with the main local factor related to revised expectations for the Bank of England. The market now prices in a smaller rate hike by the end of 2026, while a full 25-basis-point increase is expected only in 2027. Lower UK bond yields further reduce interest rate support for the pound.

UK inflation accelerated to 2.9% in July, but this did not lead to sustained stronger expectations for tighter policy. The labor market remains a restraining argument for the Bank of England, and there are few new domestic data points today that could quickly change this assessment. Therefore, the British currency is more dependent on external conditions and the direction of the US dollar.

The dollar holds near its weekly high ahead of the Fed chair's speech at Jackson Hole, and recent statements from regulator officials continue to emphasize inflation risks. If the market continues to price in higher rates in the US, GBPUSD will remain under pressure. A shift in scenario would require a significantly more dovish signal from the Fed or a new strong factor favoring the pound.

Trading idea: SELL 1.3590, SL 1.3625, TP 1.3505

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[Fresh Forex]

Weekly Review: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT | 4 September 2026​

XAUUSD: SELL 4455.00, SL 4505.00, TP 4335.00

A month without swaps on majors! Learn more

​

Gold begins the week after a sharp decline triggered by reassessment of Fed policy prospects. The probability of a September rate hike has increased, US bond yields have risen, and dollar strength reduces the attractiveness of the metal, which does not generate interest income.

Geopolitical tensions support safe-haven demand and may limit the depth of the correction. However, a sustained recovery will require easing of Fed rate expectations or weaker US labor market data. Until this happens, monetary factors retain their advantage and support the scenario for further XAUUSD decline.

Trade Idea: SELL 4455.00, SL 4505.00, TP 4335.00

#SP500: SELL 7697, SL 7757, TP 7547​

The US stock market enters the week under pressure from rising yields and increased probability of a Fed rate hike. Expensive oil intensifies inflation concerns, while higher borrowing costs may reduce the attractiveness of highly valued stocks, particularly in the technology sector.

Focus will be on employment data and new corporate earnings. A strong labor market can strengthen expectations of policy tightening, while weak figures would ease pressure on the index. Until confirmation of a shift in expectations is received, the combination of high rates and geopolitical uncertainty keeps the priority on a #SP500 decline.

Trade Idea: SELL 7697, SL 7757, TP 7547

#BRENT: BUY 89.80, SL 87.80, TP 94.60​

​

Brent receives support due to renewed tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant portion of global oil trade passes. Military actions near this key route increase the risk of supply disruptions and bring geopolitical premiums back into quotes, despite dollar strength.

Increased production and partial restoration of sea shipments may limit price rises. The market will also continue to assess inventory levels and demand prospects against the backdrop of tight Fed policy. However, as long as negotiations to stabilize the situation yield no results, the risk of supply disruption remains the main factor and supports the buying scenario for #BRENT.

Trade Idea: BUY 89.80, SL 87.80, TP 94.60

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[Fresh Forex]

Elliott wave analysis of the market for September 1, 2026 BTCUSD​

BTCUSD: BUY 79200, SL 77000, TP 85000.

A month without swaps on majors! Learn more

​

No significantly important changes occurred over the past day. The price traded at the same price levels throughout this time.

However, some interesting developments have emerged. The decline has been halted, and Bitcoin is attempting to start rising.

Most likely, buyer activity will increase in the near future, leading to another strong bullish wave. This is driven by the formation of wave 5 of (iii) extension within the third impulse wave.

Thus, entering long positions in this situation remains a quite promising trading decision.

Investment idea: BUY 79200, SL 77000, TP 85000.

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[Fresh Forex]

Fundamental Market Analysis for September 2, 2026 USDJPY​

Event to watch today:

15:15 EET. USD - ADP Employment Change

USDJPY:

A month without swaps on majors! Learn more

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USDJPY remains above the 160 mark as rising US Treasury yields and stronger expectations of an Fed rate hike support the dollar. The significant interest rate differential between the two countries maintains the attractiveness of carry trades, while higher oil prices further worsen conditions for Japan's import-dependent economy.

Support for the yen comes from statements by Bank of Japan representative Hajime Takata regarding the need to flexibly raise rates to curb inflationary pressure. The market also expects tighter policy from the regulator in September. However, these expectations have not yet provided sustained strengthening of the Japanese currency, as US yields rise alongside Japanese bond yields.

The main risk to pair growth remains the possibility of new actions by Japanese authorities following recent joint intervention by Japan and the US. Official concern about yen weakness could limit upside potential and trigger a sharp correction. Nevertheless, until confirmed measures appear, the combination of strong dollar momentum, elevated oil prices, and wide rate differentials continues to favor the USDJPY bullish scenario.

Trading idea: BUY 160.27, SL 159.87, TP 161.27

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[Fresh Forex]

Analysis of margin levels for September 3, 2026 XAUUSD​

XAUUSD: SELL 4341.46-4399.06, TP1-4283.86, TP2-4133.66.

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Long-term trend: long. The maximum accumulation of volumes for the current contract is located in the range of quotes 4400.00–4430.00. Currently, investment operations on XAUUSD are being carried out within the specified range, which indicates temporary uncertainty.

Medium-term trend: short. The maximum accumulation of volumes for the medium-term trend is located in the ranges of quotes 4590.00-4610.00 and 4320.00-4340.00. Currently, investment operations on XAUUSD are being carried out within the specified range, which indicates temporary uncertainty.

The area of favorable prices for selling from the point of view of margin support is located between zones 1/4 and 1/2 built from the minimum of 02.09.2026.

Quote of the lower boundary of zone 1/4–4341.46.

Quote of the lower boundary of zone 1/2–4399.06.

Intraday targets: update of the minimums from 02.09.2026–4283.86.

Medium-term targets: test of the lower boundary of the GWCZ–4133.66.

Trading recommendations: sales from the range of favorable prices when forming a reversal pattern.

Sell: 4341.46-4399.06, Take Profit 1–4283.86, Take Profit 2–4133.66.

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