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[Fresh Forex]

Elliott wave analysis of the market for July 9, 2026 BTCUSD​

BTCUSD: BUY 64300, SL 61800, TP 75600.
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Following the prolonged decline and the apparent completion of the impulsive wave (c) of z, buyers attempted to regain control. Although the initial rally was relatively modest, the market now needs to withstand selling pressure from bears attempting to push the price back toward the recent lows.

So far, Bitcoin has handled this pressure well. The price has been trading within a narrow range for the second consecutive day, with the expected breakout pointing to the upside. Ultimately, this consolidation is expected to develop into a full-fledged bullish impulse.

Given this outlook, opening long positions at current market prices appears to be a reasonable strategy.

Investment idea: BUY 64300, SL 61800, TP 75600.

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Market Fundamental Analysis for July 10, 2026 USDJPY​

USDJPY:

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The latest Japanese producer price data strengthened the case for the yen. The index rose by 7.1% year on year in June, compared with expectations of 6.8%. Import prices in yen terms also increased at their fastest pace since 2022. Rising cost pressures make it more likely that the Bank of Japan will return to the issue of further interest rate increases.

The central bank has already warned that companies are passing higher raw material and fuel costs on to consumers more quickly. Following the June rate increase to 1%, markets are considering the possibility of another move before the end of the year. This is gradually reducing the US dollar’s advantage in interest-rate-differential trades. US Treasury yields still support the American currency, but lower expectations of an imminent Federal Reserve decision are weakening this factor.

Yen weakness is also increasing import costs and keeping the foreign exchange market under close scrutiny from the Japanese authorities. The risk of official action does not determine the direction on its own. However, it is now accompanied by a fresh inflation signal and a stronger basis for further Bank of Japan action. Under these conditions, a decline in USDJPY appears to be the more sustainable scenario unless the US dollar receives renewed support from US economic data.

Trading idea: SELL 161.45, SL 161.75, TP 160.55

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Weekly overview: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT | 13 July 2026​

XAUUSD: SELL 4059.00, SL 4090.00, TP 3966.00​

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Gold starts the week under pressure as higher oil prices reinforce inflation concerns. Rising US Treasury yields and a stronger US dollar are reducing the appeal of the non-yielding metal. Market attention remains focused on upcoming US inflation data and comments from Federal Reserve officials regarding the future direction of monetary policy.

Geopolitical tensions continue to support demand for defensive assets, but this factor is currently being outweighed by expectations that the Federal Reserve may maintain a tighter policy stance. If US Treasury yields remain elevated and the dollar stays supported, the baseline scenario allows for a further decline in XAUUSD under the current fundamental backdrop.

Trading idea: SELL 4059.00, SL 4090.00, TP 3966.00

#SP500: SELL 7375, SL 7450, TP 7150​

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The US equity market begins the new week in a more cautious environment. Higher energy prices are adding to inflation concerns, which may reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain a restrictive policy stance. For companies, this means persistently high borrowing costs and more moderate expectations for future earnings.

At the same time, the start of the corporate earnings season will provide an important test for elevated market valuations, particularly in the technology sector. If company results and forward guidance fail to meet investor expectations, pressure on the index may persist. Under these conditions, the selling scenario appears more consistent with the current fundamental backdrop.

Trading idea: SELL 7375, SL 7450, TP 7150

#BRENT: BUY 79.30, SL 77.30, TP 85.30​

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Brent starts the week with strong support from persistent risks to global oil supplies. Market participants are closely monitoring developments affecting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, as any disruption could materially tighten the supply balance and support prices despite elevated volatility.

Concerns that higher oil prices may weaken global demand remain a limiting factor. However, the market is currently placing greater emphasis on the risk of supply disruptions. As long as the geopolitical premium remains in place, the baseline scenario allows for further gains in Brent prices.

Trading idea: BUY 79.30, SL 77.30, TP 85.30

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Analysis of margin levels for July 14, 2026 XAUUSD​

XAUUSD: SELL 4034.52-4085.82, TP1-3983.22, TP2-3797.92.​

• Long-term trend: Short. The peak volume concentration for the current contract lies within the 4070.00–4120.00 price range. Currently, XAUUSD trading activity is taking place below this range, indicating seller strength.



• Medium-term trend: Short. The peak volume concentration for the medium-term trend lies within the 4095.00–4115.00 price range. Currently, XAUUSD trading activity is taking place below this range, indicating seller strength.

• The favorable selling price zone (based on margin requirements) is located between the 1/4 and 1/2 zones, calculated from the low of July 14, 2026.

• Lower boundary of the 1/4 zone: 4034.52.

• Lower boundary of the 1/2 zone: 4085.82.

• Intraday targets: Breaking the low of July 14, 2026 (3983.22).

• Medium-term goals: test of the lower boundary of GWCZ-3797.92.



• Trading recommendations: Sell from the favorable price range upon the formation of a reversal pattern.

• Sell: 4034.52-4085.82, Take Profit 1–3983.22, Take Profit 2–3797.92.

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Market Fundamental Analysis for July 15, 2026 EURUSD​

Event to watch today:

17:00 EET. USD – Fed Governor Kevin Warsh to deliver the semi-annual report to the US Congress

EURUSD:

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The euro enters the session with moderate support after US inflation slowed. The softer June Consumer Price Index reduced expectations of an imminent Federal Reserve rate hike. This pushed US Treasury yields lower and weakened the US dollar. The shift creates room for EUR/USD to recover, although the market remains cautious ahead of further US data.

The domestic backdrop in the eurozone remains mixed. Slower regional inflation reduces the need for immediate action from the ECB. However, renewed growth in energy prices is increasing uncertainty about the inflation outlook and the economy. As a result, the euro is benefiting mainly from changing Federal Reserve expectations rather than a significant improvement in its own fundamentals.

Today, the market will assess US producer price data and another speech by the Federal Reserve Chair. Stronger inflation signals could restore demand for the dollar. However, following the softer consumer inflation report, the session’s underlying momentum remains unfavorable for the US currency. If the current reassessment of interest rate expectations continues, the upside scenario for EUR/USD remains preferable.

Trading idea: BUY 1.1440, SL 1.1410, TP 1.1515

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Elliott wave analysis of the market for July 16, 2026 BTCUSD​

BTCUSD: BUY 65550, SL 64200, TP 75000.

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The Bitcoin outlook has remained largely unchanged over the past trading session. After slightly breaking above the previous Wave 1 high, the price has paused. This is likely just a brief consolidation before the next leg of the uptrend begins.

The current scenario still favors further upside as Wave 3 of the bullish impulse starts to unfold.

As a result, long positions continue to offer an attractive trading opportunity.

New positions may be considered on a breakout above the nearest local high at 65,550.

Investment idea: BUY 65550, SL 64200, TP 75000.

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Market Fundamental Analysis for July 17, 2026 USDJPY​

USDJPY:

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The yen remains near multi-year lows as the interest rate differential continues to encourage positions favoring the dollar. The Bank of Japan must take risks to economic growth and the government bond market into account, limiting expectations of rapid policy tightening. High costs for imported energy are placing additional pressure on the Japanese currency.

On the US side, USD/JPY is supported by resilient employment data and a recovery in US Treasury yields following their recent decline. At the same time, rising geopolitical tensions are increasing demand for the dollar, which combines defensive qualities with higher yields. Softer US inflation has reduced the likelihood of an imminent Federal Reserve rate increase, but the yield differential remains wide.

The main constraint on further gains in the pair is the risk of action by the Japanese authorities. The Ministry of Finance has again stated that it is prepared to respond to excessive currency movements, while previous interventions show that a sharp rise in the dollar may trigger countermeasures. However, without confirmed action, this risk does not outweigh the interest rate factor, and the baseline scenario allows for a cautious rise in USD/JPY.

Trading idea: BUY 162.40, SL 162.10, TP 163.00

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[Fresh Forex]

Weekly overview: XAUUSD, #SP500, #BRENT | 24 July 2026​

XAUUSD: SELL 4015.00, SL 4050.00, TP 3927.50​

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Gold begins the week near $4,015 per ounce, remaining under pressure as rising oil prices lead markets to reassess Federal Reserve interest rate expectations. Higher energy costs are increasing inflation risks, supporting US Treasury yields, and raising the opportunity cost of holding the metal.

Geopolitical tensions continue to sustain demand for defensive assets, but this has not yet offset the impact of the US dollar and expectations that interest rates will remain elevated for longer. If the oil price shock continues to support US yields, the fundamental scenario allows for a further decline in XAUUSD.

Trading idea: SELL 4015.00, SL 4050.00, TP 3927.50

#SP500: SELL 7505, SL 7555, TP 7380​

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The #SP500 enters the week following a decline in the technology sector, while higher oil prices are reviving concerns about inflation and borrowing costs. Rising US Treasury yields could place additional pressure on company valuations, particularly in sectors that are sensitive to financing costs.

Major corporate earnings could support the index if results confirm strong profit expectations. However, high market concentration and the correction in semiconductor stocks increase the risk of disappointment. If oil prices and US yields remain elevated, the baseline scenario continues to point lower.

Trading idea: SELL 7505, SL 7555, TP 7380

#BRENT: BUY 90.30, SL 87.80, TP 95.30​

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Brent begins the week above $90 per barrel following a sharp increase in risks to Middle Eastern oil supplies. Reduced shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz and tensions surrounding Iranian ports are increasing the likelihood of disruptions, keeping the geopolitical risk premium as the market’s main driver.

The advance has already been substantial, increasing the risk of a correction if there are signs of de-escalation or a normalization of shipping activity. Nevertheless, restricted transit capacity and low inventories continue to provide fundamental support for oil. Until supply risks ease, the priority remains a cautious upside scenario for #BRENT.

Trading idea: BUY 90.30, SL 87.80, TP 95.30

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[Fresh Forex]

Analysis of margin levels for July 21, 2026 #NQ100​

#NQ100: SELL 28510.3-28787.8, TP1-28232.8, TP2-27126.3.​

Long-term trend: bearish. The largest concentration of volumes in the current contract is located within the 29450.0–29600.0 range. #NQ100 is currently trading below this area, indicating strong selling pressure.

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Medium-term trend: bearish. The largest concentration of medium-term volumes is located within the 29460.0–29560.0 range. #NQ100 is currently trading below this area, confirming the strength of sellers.

From a margin requirements perspective, the favorable selling area is located between the 1/4 and 1/2 zones drawn from the low of July 17, 2026.

The lower boundary of the 1/4 zone is at 28510.3.

The lower boundary of the 1/2 zone is at 28787.8.

Intraday target: a move below the July 17, 2026 low at 28232.8.

Medium-term target: a test of the upper boundary of the GWCZ at 27126.3.

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Investment recommendation: consider selling from the favorable price range once a reversal pattern has formed.

Sell: 28510.3-28787.8, Take Profit 1-28232.8, Take Profit 2-27126.3.

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