Daily Market Analysis By zForex

[zForex]

Cautious Mood as Powell, Inflation Data, and Trade Talks Loom (09.01.2025)​

The EUR/USD supported by Fed rate cut bets after weak U.S. payrolls and softer ISM services data. Eurozone Q2 GDP rose 0.1% and inflation held at 2%, keeping ECB policy steady after eight cuts since 2022.

Markets now focus on Powell’s Jackson Hole speech, U.S. inflation data, and U.S.–China trade talks, while geopolitical developments around Ukraine remain central to risk sentiment.

Technical Outlook on Charts​

EUR/USD Near 1.1705 on Fed Cut Bets
USD/JPY Higher on Eased BoJ Hike Expectations
Safe-Haven Flows Lift Gold to Multi-Month High
Pound Gains as Markets Expect Fed Easing
Silver Surges Above $40, Highest Since 2011

 

[zForex]

Safe-Haven Demand Lifts Metals Amid Mixed Markets (09.02.2025)​

Precious metals rallied strongly, with silver surging 2% above $40/oz, its highest since 2011, on expectations of a Fed rate cut. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly backed easing, while a U.S. court ruling against Trump-era tariffs and China’s 70% jump in solar exports added support.

The dollar weakened broadly, lifting the euro above $1.17 for its strongest since late July and keeping the pound above $1.35, its highest since mid-August. Concerns over Fed independence weighed further after a court hearing on Trump’s attempt to remove Governor Cook.

Markets remain focused on upcoming U.S. labor data, which will guide the Fed’s next move and shape global sentiment.

Technical Outlook & Support Resistance Levels​

EUR/USD Slips to 1.1695 on Dollar Strength

USD/JPY Near 147.85 as Yen Weakens

XAU/USD Extends Rally on Fed Cut Bets

GBP/USD Slips to 1.3520 as Dollar Firms

Silver Rallies for Fifth Session, Nears $41

 

[zForex]

Markets Cautious as Fiscal and Policy Risks Mount (09.03.2025)​

On September 3, markets traded cautiously as monetary and fiscal signals drove sentiment. The euro slipped toward $1.16, pressured by surging French and German 30-year yields, their highest since the 2011 debt crisis. Germany’s plan for nearly €500 billion in new debt through 2029 raised fresh fiscal worries.

The yen weakened past 147.5 per dollar as investors awaited wage data for Bank of Japan guidance. Governor Ueda pointed to rising wage growth in a tight labor market, though tariff risks kept policy expectations uncertain.

Gold stayed above $3,530, near record highs, supported by Fed easing bets and safe-haven demand. Silver held around $40.7, close to 2011 peaks, after a 2% jump. Markets priced a 90% chance of a September Fed cut, with Fed’s Daly backing easing if labor risks intensify.

The pound fell below $1.34, its weakest since early August, as 30-year gilt yields hit their highest since 1998. Fiscal concerns mount, with expectations that Chancellor Reeves may introduce new tax measures in the Autumn Budget.

Overall, investors remain highly reactive to central bank moves, fiscal policies, and geopolitical risks, reinforcing a cautious market tone.

Technical Outlook on Charts​

EUR/USD Weakens as Yields Support USD Demand
USD/JPY Climbs to One-Month High Amid Yen Weakness
Gold Hits Record High Ahead of US Jobs Data
GBP/USD Pressured by UK Fiscal Concerns
Silver Consolidates After Reaching 14-Year Peak

 

[zForex]

Dollar Weakness Supports FX and Metals (09.04.2025)​

The dollar softened after weak US labor data, keeping the euro above $1.16 and the pound over $1.34 despite UK fiscal concerns.

The yen also firmed past 148 as the BoJ stuck with its tightening outlook. Gold steadied near $3,540 after a strong rally, while silver eased 1% to $40.5/oz on profit-taking but remained underpinned by Fed cut bets. Attention now turns to Friday’s payrolls for the next key signal.

Euro Steady on Weak US Jobs Data
Yen Strengthens Past 148 as Dollar Softens
Gold Holds at $3,535 Despite Paused Rally
Pound Above $1.34 with Autumn Budget Risks
Silver Slips from $40.50 After 14-Year Highs

 

[zForex]

Dollar Softens as Euro, Metals Rise Ahead of U.S. Jobs Data (09.05.2025)​

Markets traded cautiously in Friday’s Asian session ahead of the key U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report. The euro rebounded to 1.1670 as traders awaited Eurozone Q2 GDP, with expectations of 1.4% YoY growth, while the U.S. dollar weakened on rising Fed cut bets after soft labor data.

The yen held near 148.50, with focus on NFP for confirmation of labor market cooling. Gold stayed near record highs at $3,352, supported by safe-haven demand, while silver advanced to $40.85, both underpinned by expectations of Fed easing. The pound steadied above $1.34, though fiscal uncertainty limited upside.

Technical Outlook and Support Resistance Levels​

Euro Gains Ahead of GDP, Dollar Softens
USD/JPY Holds 148.50 Ahead of NFP
Gold Holds Near Record Highs Ahead of NFP
Pound Steadies Above $1.34 Ahead of NFP
Silver Rises Ahead of U.S. NFP Report

 

[zForex]

Tariff Tensions Rise, Dollar Steady Above 97.8 (09.08.2025)​

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the Supreme Court is expected to uphold Trump’s tariffs, but a loss could force refunds of up to USD 1 trillion in trade. Trump also threatened retaliation against the EU after a USD 3.5 billion Google fine and signed an order granting tariff exemptions on select goods, benefiting Japan and the EU while penalizing Switzerland.

The dollar index stayed above 97.8 as weak U.S. payrolls (22,000 in August) fueled bets on a September Fed cut. Investors await inflation data to gauge whether easing could be larger. U.S. stock futures edged higher ahead of PPI and CPI releases.

China’s reserves rose USD 29.9 billion to USD 3.322 trillion, the highest since 2015, while gold holdings climbed slightly. WTI crude topped USD 62 after OPEC+ announced a small October supply hike. In Japan, the Nikkei gained 1.1% after PM Ishiba resigned, with GDP revised higher and major exporters leading gains.

Technical Outlook on Charts​

Euro Flat With Political Risks in Focus

Yen Weakens Past 148 After Ishiba Resigns

Gold Consolidates Below $3,600 Ahead of Inflation Data

GBP/USD Weak as Yen Turmoil Lifts Dollar

Silver Retreats Slightly After Multi-Year Peak

 

[zForex]

Global Markets Rise as Yields Drop to 4% (09.09.2025)​

Global markets climbed as weak U.S. jobs data (22,000 new payrolls, unemployment at 4.3%) increased expectations for Fed rate cuts. The 10-year Treasury yield dropped to 4%, its lowest in five months, with traders pricing in at least a 25 bps cut and watching this week’s PPI and CPI.

Gold surged above $3,650 to record highs, supported by lower yields, a softer dollar, and safe-haven demand after U.S. sanction threats on Russia. Oil extended gains, with Brent above $66 and WTI near $62, after OPEC+ confirmed only a modest October output increase of 137,000 bpd.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 crossed 44,000 for the first time, driven by stronger GDP and expectations of fiscal and monetary support following Prime Minister Ishiba’s resignation and progress on a U.S.-Japan auto tariff deal.

Technical Outlook on Charts​

EUR/USD Near 1.1780 on Fed Cut Bets
Yen Extends Gains Amid U.S. Data Revisions
Gold Extends Record Rally Above $3,650
GBP/USD Hits 1.3560 on Fed Cut Bets
XAG/USD Extends Rally for Third Day

 

[zForex]

Global Stocks Climb on Fed Cut Bets Despite China Deflation (09.10.2025)​

Global markets advanced Tuesday on rising Fed easing expectations. Revised U.S. labor data showed 911,000 fewer jobs through March, reinforcing weak August payrolls and lifting bets on a September rate cut, with some anticipating 50 bps. The 10-year Treasury yield held near 4.08% ahead of inflation reports.

A federal judge blocked President Trump from removing Fed Governor Lisa Cook, easing independence concerns. Meanwhile, Trump urged the EU to impose tariffs up to 100% on China and India over Russian oil, vowing U.S. alignment as talks with Putin yielded little progress on Ukraine.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 and South Korea’s KOSPI gained, with chipmakers leading. Singapore and Australia posted modest advances, while India’s Nifty futures rose. Chinese equities lagged after August CPI fell 0.4% and PPI slid 2.9%, marking 35 months of deflation despite state stimulus.

Technical Outlook on Charts​

Euro Struggles After Drop as Dollar Finds Support
Yen Steady at 147.3 Ahead of U.S. Inflation Data
Gold Holds $3,620 Ahead of PPI Data
Sterling Rises as Dollar Slips After Jobs Miss
Safe-Haven Flows Lift Silver as Dollar Softens

 

[zForex]

Wall Street Hits Records, Yields Fall (09.11.2025)​

Markets now see a 92% chance of a 25-bps Fed cut on Sept. 19, with some betting on 50 bps amid labor market weakness.

U.S. wholesale inflation slipped 0.1% in August, easing pressure ahead of Thursday’s CPI, expected to show a 0.3% monthly rise and 2.9% annual increase, with core steady at 3.1%.

Equities pushed higher, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq setting new records on tech strength and Oracle’s earnings. Treasury yields fell to five-month lows, the 10-year at 4.04%, while the dollar index held at 97.8.

The ECB is expected to hold rates steady after 200 bps of cuts since mid-2024, with growth seen at 1.2% this year, though political strains in France and Spain weigh on sentiment.

Oil remained volatile, with Brent near $67.50 and WTI at $64.34, as OPEC+ scaled back supply hikes and geopolitical tensions offset signs of weaker demand.

Technical Outlook on Charts​

ECB in Focus as Euro Tests Key Levels​

Yen Steady Near 147.5 Before CPI​

Demand Keeps Gold Near Record​

Pound Climbs Despite Mixed FTSE​

Industrial Demand Keeps Silver Strong​

 

[zForex]

Inflation and Labor Data Shape Fed Outlook (09.12.2025)​

U.S. stocks hit record highs with the Dow topping 46,000, while futures held flat as traders weighed hotter August CPI at 2.9% and rising jobless claims at 263,000, the highest since 2021. The data strengthened expectations of a September Fed rate cut. Treasury yields stayed near five-month lows around 4.03%.

In Japan, 10-year bond yields hovered near 1.59% as markets assessed the BoJ outlook amid Ishiba’s resignation and new U.S. tariff risks. A joint U.S.-Japan statement reaffirmed market-driven exchange rates.

The ECB kept rates steady, forecasting Eurozone inflation to ease toward 2% by 2027 and growth to slow in 2026 before a modest rebound. President Lagarde emphasized a cautious, data-driven stance.

Technical Outlook on Charts​

EUR/USD Slips Amid Stronger USD, Eyes on Key Data
USD/JPY Rises as Dollar Holds on Fed Cut Bets
Gold Rises as Jobless Claims Hit Four-Year High
GBP/USD Rises Above $1.355
Silver Near $42, Highest in 14 Years

 

[zForex]

Investors Await Fed Decision Amid Cautious Markets (09.15.2025)

U.S. stock futures were steady on Monday as markets awaited the Fed’s policy decision. The dollar index held near 97.6, with traders pricing a 96% chance of a 25 bps cut after weak labor and inflation data. Wall Street hit record highs last week, led by AI optimism.

Asian markets opened cautiously. The Bank of Canada and China’s central bank are expected to ease this week, while Japan and the U.K. are seen holding steady. The euro was flat despite France’s Fitch downgrade, while South Korea hit records after dropping a planned stock tax.

Gold held near $3,639, Treasuries stayed low, and the 10-year yield was at 4.06% on Friday. Markets see multiple Fed cuts by year-end, with some betting on a 50 bps move next week.

Technical Outlook on Charts
Euro Eases After ECB Holds Steady
Yen Firms to 147.5 Ahead of BoJ Meeting
XAU/USD Steady as Traders Await 25 bps Cut
Sterling Firms Above $1.35 on Fed Cut Bets
XAG/USD Steady Near 14-Year Highs

 

[zForex]

Global Markets Steady Ahead of Fed Rate Decision (09.17.2025)

US stock futures were little changed on Wednesday as investors awaited the Federal Reserve’s policy announcement, with a 25 bps rate cut widely expected. On Tuesday, the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq posted modest losses, weighed down by tech names including Nvidia, Broadcom, and Microsoft. Optimism over US-China trade talks and a new TikTok framework supported sentiment, lifting Oracle shares.

The 10-year Treasury yield hovered near 4.03%, close to five-month lows, as markets priced in a cut and about 67 bps of easing for the year. The dollar index held near 96.7, at a two and a half month low, as the euro hit a four-year high.

Asian markets were mixed: Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose over 1%, China’s CSI 300 gained 0.4%, Japan’s Nikkei edged 0.2% higher, while South Korea’s KOSPI dropped more than 1%. Investors looked to the Fed’s updated projections and dot plot for guidance.

Technical Outlook on Charts
Euro Hits Multi-Year High Ahead of Fed Decision
Yen Slips to 146.6 After Weak Trade Data
Gold Holds Gains as Fed Decision Looms
GBP/USD Rises as BoE Holds, Fed Eyes Cuts
Silver Slips 1% From 14-Year High

 

[zForex]

Markets Respond to Fed’s September Cut (09.18.2025)

The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 bps to 4.00%–4.25% in September, its first move since December. Governor Stephen Miran dissented, favoring a 50 bps cut. The Fed signaled another 50 bps of easing by year-end and one cut in 2026, with GDP growth upgraded and 2026 inflation forecasts higher.

The dollar index held above 97, while Powell called the move “risk management” amid labor softness. The Bank of Canada also cut rates, while the BoE and BoJ are expected to stay on hold.

US 10-year yields hovered near 4.07% as stocks reacted to the Fed’s guidance. Futures rose, but Cracker Barrel shares fell over 9% on weak earnings. The Dow gained 0.57% Wednesday, while the S&P 500 slipped 0.1% and the Nasdaq lost 0.33%.

Asian markets advanced, led by Japan’s Nikkei, hitting a record 45,296.21, and gains in South Korea’s KOSPI. Chinese and Hong Kong stocks were mixed, though Shanghai indexes touched decade highs.

Technical Outlook on Charts
Euro Holds Below 4-Year High
Yen Pulls Back Ahead of BoJ Meeting
Gold Steadies Near $3,650 After Fed Cut
Pound Supported by Dollar Weakness Post-Fed Cut
Silver Slips as Fed Signals Limited 2026 Cuts

 

[zForex]

Fed Rate Cut Lifts US Stocks, Inflation in Focus (09.19.2025)

US stocks hit fresh records after the Fed’s 25-bps rate cut, with the Dow up 0.27%, S&P 500 0.48%, and Nasdaq 0.94%. Tech led gains as Intel surged 23% on a $5B Nvidia partnership, while Nvidia, Palantir, Coinbase, and CrowdStrike also rallied.

The 10-year Treasury yield held near 4.11% and the dollar index around 97.4. The Fed signaled two more cuts in 2025 but only one in 2026, with Powell calling the move “risk management” amid labor weakness. Jobless claims fell, supporting the dollar, while QT continued. The Bank of Canada also cut rates, while the BoE held steady.

Japan’s inflation eased to 2.7% in August, the lowest since late 2024, as energy subsidies and slower food inflation helped. In the UK, the BoE kept rates at 4% in a 7–2 vote, slowed gilt sales, and maintained a cautious stance as CPI held at 3.8% with weak growth and softer labor data.

Technical Outlook on Charts
Euro Steady at $1.18 After Fed Cut and ECB Pause
Yen Softens Ahead of BoJ Policy
Gold Consolidates After Fed’s 25 bps Cut
Pound Falls Below $1.36 After BoE and Fed Move
Silver Holds Gains Amid Fed Caution and Dollar Strength

 

[zForex]

Markets Keep Steady After Fed Cut (09.22.2025)​

EUR/USD slipped to 1.1747 after the Fed’s 25-bps cut, while USD/JPY held near 148. Fed officials signaled a gradual, data-dependent approach to easing.

Gold traded around $3,685, supported by the Fed’s move and Powell’s “risk management” message, reinforcing its safe-haven role.

US tech stocks extended gains, with the Tech 100 Index at 24,654, up 0.7% daily and 24% yearly. Forecasts point to a mild correction as profit-taking and valuations weigh on further upside.

Technical Outlook on Charts​

EUR/USD Slips Near 1.1730 on Firm Dollar
USD/JPY Rises as BoJ Uncertainty Weighs
Gold Struggles Despite Fed Cut Outlook
GBP/USD Extends Losing Streak
Silver Tests Channel Top Amid Rally

 

[zForex]

Markets Pause Before Data and Policy Updates (09.23.2025)

Markets were steady on Tuesday as investors awaited key economic indicators and central bank signals. The euro hovered near $1.18, supported by expectations that Eurozone PMIs will show modest improvements in both manufacturing and services.

The yen strengthened to 147.5 per dollar as the greenback eased, with traders eyeing political uncertainty in Washington and steady BoJ policy. Gold climbed above $3,750, fueled by Fed rate cut bets, while silver retreated to $43.80 after touching fresh multi-year highs. The pound traded near $1.35, weighed down by fiscal concerns and awaiting PMI data.

Technical Outlook on Charts
EUR/USD Steady as Traders Await Eurozone PMIs
Yen Rebounds at 147.5 as Dollar Eases
Gold Tops $3,750 on Fed Cut Bets
Sterling Holds Close to Two-Week Low
Silver Eases After Fresh 2011 Peaks