Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

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Intel (INTC) Shares Trade Above $40

Earlier, we highlighted the factors that helped Intel (INTC) shares recover strongly in 2025, including support from the U.S. government, leadership changes, investment from Japanese conglomerate SoftBank Group, and more.

According to recent reports, Intel could gain a major new client in Apple (AAPL). Yahoo Finance cites analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, who stated on X that Intel’s prospects have “improved significantly.” Intel may begin producing chips for Apple as early as 2027, potentially reducing reliance on Taiwan’s TSMC.

Although there are no official confirmations, sentiment on the market is positive. Since the start of last week, INTC shares have risen by over 20%, reaching their highest level since spring 2024, breaking past the psychological $40 mark.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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Natural Gas Price Nears Three-Year High in Early December

In mid-November, analysing the XNG/USD chart, we noted a rise in natural gas prices, outlined a system of trend channels, and suggested a possible pullback scenario.

Indeed, since then (as indicated by the arrow), U.S. gas prices retreated to the lower boundary of the orange ascending channel, forming a low at point B. From late November, renewed buying activity has been observed, driven by:

→ Seasonal factor: U.S. forecasts for December indicate below-average temperatures, sharply increasing demand for heating and electricity.

→ Export and geopolitics: The U.S. is exporting record volumes of liquefied natural gas (LNG). Europe continues to purchase U.S. gas to replace Russian supplies, while demand in Asia is also rising.

→ Anticipation of shortages: Due to high exports and early cold weather, traders are factoring in the risk that storage levels may deplete faster than usual.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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EUR/USD Pair Reaches 1.5-Month High

This morning, the EUR/USD rate moved above 1.1680 during early trading — its highest level since mid-October. The main driver behind the rise is traders’ assessment of the diverging policies of central banks. Based on the fundamental outlook ahead of the December meetings:

→ The market is almost certain that the Federal Reserve will cut rates in December under pressure from the Trump administration, making the dollar appear less profitable and less attractive.
→ The ECB, by contrast, has adopted a wait-and-see stance. Inflation in the Eurozone is close to target, and there seems to be no intention to cut rates aggressively for now.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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Dollar under Pressure after ADP as Investors Brace for Key Data Releases

The US dollar continues to retreat following weaker-than-expected ADP figures, which strengthened expectations of a softer Federal Reserve stance. The US private sector created far fewer jobs than forecast, a development markets interpreted as a sign of potential labour-market cooling after the prolonged shutdown and break in official data releases. Against this backdrop, traders increased their bets on a more dovish tone from the Fed in the coming weeks.

Attention now turns to an incoming batch of macroeconomic reports from the US and Canada. These include US weekly jobless claims and fresh Canadian labour-market data. The releases may play a crucial role in shaping expectations ahead of the Fed’s next meeting: softer numbers would reinforce speculation about an imminent rate cut, while moderately firm data could lend support to the dollar and help stabilise it.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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NIO Shares Drop Below $5

As the chart shows, the share price of NIO Inc. (NIO), the Chinese manufacturer of “smart” electric vehicles, has fallen by roughly 30% over the past month and this week slipped below $5 for the first time since mid-August.

Among the bearish drivers:
→ the latest quarterly report revealed gross revenue below analysts’ expectations ($3.06bn versus $3.11bn);
→ a cautious outlook for vehicle deliveries in the upcoming quarter.

Market sentiment appears to have turned wary, given that:
→ the Chinese economy continues to show signs of slowing despite government stimulus;
→ NIO’s revenue prospects may remain constrained by intense competition from BYD, XPeng and Li Auto — a particularly concerning factor as NIO launches new models and sub-brands.

Even so, the NIO share chart does offer some glimmers of optimism.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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Gold Price Analysis: Market Awaits Key Updates

The ADX indicator on the 4-hour XAU/USD chart has dropped to a multi-month low, signalling the absence of a clear trend.

At the same time, a technical assessment of price movements allows for the construction of a symmetrical triangle pattern with a central axis around $4,205 — indicating that the current price reflects an equal balance of major drivers, including:

→ Weakening conditions in the US labour market. According to media reports, ADP recorded an unexpected decline of 32,000 private-sector jobs, while Challenger reported 71,000 layoffs in November, bringing the total number of job cuts since the start of the year close to 1.17 million.

→ Rumours that White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett may replace Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell in May — a development that has strengthened expectations of more aggressive policy easing in 2026.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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Market Analysis: Gold Price Retreats Modestly, Oil Price Gains Traction

Gold price rallied above $4,250 before correcting lower. Crude oil price is recovering and it could climb further higher toward $62.00.

Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil Prices Analysis Today
- Gold price gained pace for a move above $4,250 and recently corrected lower against the US Dollar.
- A key bullish trend line is forming with support at $4,195 on the hourly chart of gold at FXOpen.
- Crude oil prices are moving higher above the $59.00 resistance zone.
- There is a connecting bullish trend line forming with support at $59.40 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen.

Gold Price Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of Gold at FXOpen, the price was able to climb above $4,120, as mentioned in the previous analysis. The price even surpassed $4,250 before the bears appeared.

The price traded close to $4,260 before there was a downside correction. There was a move below $4,240 and $4,220. The price settled below the 50-hour simple moving average, and RSI dipped below 50. There was a move below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $4,175 swing low to the $4,260 high.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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Netflix to Acquire Warner Bros: How Might This Affect the Price of NFLX Shares?

A major development in the stock market is the news that Netflix is buying the assets of Warner Bros. Discovery for $82.7 billion. How might this influence the price of NFLX shares?

To assess the outlook, context is essential.

In the second half of October, a bearish gap appeared on the NFLX chart following a disappointing earnings report. On 24 October, we noted that the price might find support near the lower boundary of the established trend channel. Indeed, the price staged a modest recovery (as shown by arrow 1), but the upper edge of the gap acted as resistance.

In mid-November, Netflix (NFLX) carried out a stock split – traditionally viewed as a bullish signal for retail investors. Splits typically make shares more affordable and often lift prices on expectations of fresh liquidity. However, the share price moved lower instead (as indicated by arrow 2).

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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The Dollar Index Has Fallen to Its Lowest Level in Almost 1.5 Months

The key event of the week will take place on 10 December – at 22:00 GMT+3 the FOMC will publish its interest rate decision, followed half an hour later by a press conference with Jerome Powell.

As the chart of the dollar index (DXY) shows, the US dollar is weakening as the event approaches, reflecting market sentiment – the rate is expected to be cut by 25 basis points due to pressure from Trump and a cooling labour market. This underpins the bearish trend that has been in place since late November.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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ICT Concepts: What Is Inner Circle Trading?

Inner Circle Trading, or ICT for short, is a methodology that explains how to determine the actions of large institutional players, or "smart money", in trading and build a structured trading approach. The methodology includes many concepts that allow traders to spot and follow institutional market participants in different conditions. Explore the core ICT concepts and explain how traders typically apply them to refine directional bias, identify liquidity targets, and develop their trading strategies.

Key Takeaways
ICT explains market movement through institutional behaviour, focusing on liquidity, structure, and order flow rather than indicators.
The Inner Circle Trading method is used across forex, indices, and commodities on intraday and higher timeframes to interpret how major players influence price.
Core ICT concepts include Break of Structure (BOS), Change of Character (CHoCH), Market Structure Shift (MSS), liquidity pools, order blocks, fair value gaps, optimal trade entries, and kill zones.
ICT shows how price targets liquidity, reacts to imbalances, and shifts momentum, giving traders a clearer narrative of market intent.
The framework combines structure, timing, and context, making it a detailed but discretionary approach to analysing market movement.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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USD/CAD Recovers From a 2.5-Month Low

The main driver of the decline was a sharp shift in sentiment and diverging expectations for policy actions in the United States and Canada.

→ Canada: Friday’s employment data came in far stronger than forecast. As a result, traders sharply reduced the likelihood of a Bank of Canada rate cut at the next meeting, judging the economy resilient enough to pause its easing cycle.

→ United States: Markets are pricing in a high probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut at tomorrow’s meeting (22:00 GMT+3).

This contrast pushed USD/CAD to a 2.5-month low. However, the chart shows that the bulls may still have some grounds for optimism.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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Broadcom (AVGO) Shares Hit a Record Ahead of Earnings

Broadcom (AVGO) shares reached an all-time high ahead of the company’s quarterly results, due this Thursday, supported by strong fundamental drivers:

→ Partnership with Microsoft: Media reports suggest Broadcom is in talks with Microsoft to develop custom AI chips.
→ Analyst optimism: UBS called Broadcom a “top investment” in the AI sector, citing explosive demand for hardware, and raised its price target to $472.
→ Shift in strategy: Market participants believe the company is refocusing on its own chips to win AI hardware market share from Nvidia.

We highlighted additional bullish drivers in our 14 October analysis.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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Commodity Currencies Pull Back Ahead of Fed And Bank of Canada Decisions

The AUD and CAD are trading in corrective mode, reflecting market caution ahead of today’s Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada meetings. Investors are locking in some profits after a volatile start to the week and prefer to wait for updated guidance from policymakers on the future path of monetary policy.

Over the coming trading sessions, focus will be on decisions from the Bank of Canada and the Fed, as well as the accompanying statements and press conferences. Central banks are setting the tone for the day, meaning reactions in AUD/USD and USD/CAD could be sizeable and highly volatile in the hours ahead.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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S&P 500 Index: Chart Analysis Ahead of Fed News

On 2 December, we noted that the final month of the year is traditionally favourable for the S&P 500 index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen), as:
→ since around the 1950s, December has been positive in more than 70% of cases;
→ the average monthly gain is approximately +1.0%.

Today, with traders worldwide focused on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision and Chair Powell’s subsequent press conference, there is reason to highlight another statistic. According to media reports, in 20 out of 20 instances when equity markets were near record highs and the Fed cut rates, the S&P 500 rose over the following 12 months.

Given the current backdrop — proximity to all-time highs and expectations of rate cuts — it is possible that this could become the 21st such case.

An analysis of price action on the 4-hour chart of the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) suggests that the stock market is reflecting nervous anticipation of the news, as the index is trading at roughly the same levels as at the start of December.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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Oracle (ORCL) Share Price Rebounds Ahead of Earnings Release

Oracle is due to publish its quarterly results today after the close of the main trading session. Analysts are expecting solid year-on-year growth compared with the same period last year:

→ Revenue: forecast to rise by around 15% to $16.15–16.2 billion.
→ Earnings per share (EPS): expected at $1.63–1.65, up roughly 11%.

At the same time, the market’s focus will be on the company’s plans in two key areas:

→ Order backlog growth: investors are looking for confirmation that demand for AI infrastructure remains strong. Previously, orders exceeded $500 billion.
→ Debt and capital expenditure (capex): Oracle is spending aggressively on data centres (capex could rise to as much as $25 billion per year) while taking on additional debt. This has raised concerns that costs may be increasing faster than the actual profits generated from AI.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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Market Analysis: EUR/USD Stalls at Resistance as USD/JPY Extends Sharp Upside

EUR/USD climbed higher and tested the 1.1680 resistance. USD/JPY managed to reclaim 156.00 and might aim for more gains.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/JPY Analysis Today
- The Euro started a downside correction from the 1.1680 pivot zone.
- There is a key declining channel forming with resistance at 1.1640 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen.
- USD/JPY climbed higher above 155.50 and 156.00.
- There is a bullish trend line forming with support near 156.30 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh increase from 1.1550. The Euro cleared a few key hurdles near 1.1600 to move into a positive zone against the US Dollar.

The pair settled above 1.1600 and the 50-hour simple moving average. A high was formed at 1.1681, and the pair started a downside correction. There was a drop below 1.1650, and the pair tested the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.1555 swing low to the 1.1681 high.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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The Smart Money Concept: Basics and Strategies

Smart Money Concepts (SMC) have become a widely studied approach for traders who want a clearer view of how major institutions influence price. Instead of relying only on standard tools, this method focuses on market structure, liquidity and the behaviour of large players such as banks and funds.

This article breaks down the basics of SMC trading, providing an overview of its components, how traders use the core ideas to analyse markets, and the advantages and drawbacks of the approach.

Key Takeaways
Smart Money Concepts focus on analysing institutional behaviour rather than relying only on standard technical tools.
Key ideas include trend structure, liquidity areas and zones linked to earlier institutional activity.
The framework aims to explain why price moves, not just how it moves on the chart.
SMC may support traders in organising their analysis and setting clearer invalidation rules.
It works across major markets, including forex, shares, indices and commodities.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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The Pound and the Euro Surge After the Fed Rate Cut

Yesterday’s decision by the US central bank became the main driver of market movement, confirming a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy path. Markets were particularly sensitive to Jerome Powell’s comments, as he repeatedly stressed that inflation remains too high while the labour market is showing clear signs of significant weakening.

The Fed Chair noted that the negative job growth — averaging around minus 20,000 per month — and potential distortions in the data caused by missing figures for October and November require a cautious approach to upcoming releases. At the same time, he emphasised that the economy does not appear overheated, demand is cooling, and inflation in the services sector continues to decline steadily.

These signals were interpreted by the market as confirmation that further support for the economy may be needed, increasing pressure on the dollar and triggering a sharp rise in demand for European currencies.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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Nasdaq 100 Chart Analysis After the Fed Decision

The Nasdaq 100 index (US Tech 100 mini on FXOpen) showed sharp volatility yesterday following the interest rate announcement. The market action can be interpreted as follows:

→ First, the FOMC decision was released: as expected, the Federal Funds Rate was cut from 4.00% to 3.75% (a bullish catalyst), which pushed the index up towards point A.

→ However, half an hour later Jerome Powell’s press conference began, and his tone was noticeably hawkish (a bearish catalyst). The Fed Chair signalled that the rate-cutting cycle has been paused because inflation remains elevated and additional labour-market data is needed. As a result, the index fell sharply from point A to the low at point B.

Meanwhile, Donald Trump criticised the Fed’s decision, arguing that rates should be cut far more aggressively. This adds to uncertainty, especially given expectations that Powell will leave his post in May 2026.

Bearish pressure on the tech index intensified further after Oracle’s earnings release — see yesterday’s post for details. The results disappointed investors, fuelling renewed talk of an AI bubble, and ORCL shares plunged around 11% in after-hours trading.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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Dollar Index Chart Analysis After the Fed Decision

Following yesterday’s FOMC interest rate decision and Jerome Powell’s press conference, the US Dollar Index (DXY) dropped sharply to point A.

On one hand, the 0.25% rate cut makes the dollar less attractive for capital preservation and yield. On the other, the prospect of a pause before further cuts provides some support.

Thus, the current level represents the market’s attempt to establish a fair valuation for the US currency.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.