Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

[Resolve]

AUD/NZD: Fresh Hikes on Both Sides, One Chart Still Undecided

The Aussie enters this week with genuine hawkish backing after Australia's Q2 GDP surprised sharply to the upside, pushing the market-implied probability of a September RBA hike from 48% to 57%, with a November move now more than fully priced. Governor Bullock's board has already flagged upside inflation risks tied to Middle East-driven energy costs, and rising Australian bond yields, which touched their highest level since April 2011 this week, are only reinforcing that hawkish backdrop.

Across the Tasman, the RBNZ delivered exactly what all five major New Zealand bank economists expected on Wednesday: a 25bp hike to 2.75%, the second consecutive increase after July's tightening move. Headline inflation remains elevated at 4.1%, though the central bank's own projections signal a likely pause in October before potentially resuming in December, leaving markets pricing roughly a 30% chance of another hike this year.

The result: two central banks now both firmly in tightening mode, though the RBA's path still carries more near-term uncertainty than the RBNZ's, whose next move already looks broadly telegraphed through year-end.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

[Resolve]

Weekly Market Insights with Gary Thomson: ECB Interest Rate, US Inflation, and UK GDP

Three key economic events could shape market sentiment in the second week of September: the ECB interest rate decision, the latest UK GDP data and US inflation figures.

In this video, Gary Thomson looks at what these releases could mean for monetary policy expectations and major currency, gold and equity markets.

Key topics covered:

ECB Interest Rate Decision — 10 September — Markets are pricing in a 25-basis-point rate hike after Eurozone inflation accelerated to 3.3%. With the move largely expected, the ECB’s guidance on future policy could be more important for the euro.

UK GDP — 11 September — The UK economy grew by 0.4% in Q2, while June GDP expanded by 0.3%. Could the latest data confirm the resilience of the UK economy or point to a loss of momentum?

US Inflation — 11 September — US annual inflation slowed to 3.4% in July, while core inflation eased to 2.5%. The latest figures could influence expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next policy move and trigger volatility across USD pairs, gold and equity indices.

With both the ECB and Federal Reserve facing important monetary policy decisions, traders will be watching closely for any signals that could change expectations for future interest rates.

Watch it now and stay updated with FXOpen.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

[Resolve]

AUD/CAD Analysis: Atypical Volume Casts Doubt on Triangle Breakout

The key catalyst for the Australian dollar remains the July inflation data released on 26 August. The figure came in at 3.5% year-on-year, versus expectations of 3.2%, while the Trimmed Mean increased by 0.5% month-on-month, compared with a forecast of 0.3%. The following day, 27 August, NAB revised its forecast for the RBA’s next policy decision. The bank now expects a 25-basis-point rate hike at the September meeting, taking the rate to 4.6%, with the risk of another increase in November.

For the Canadian dollar, the key factor was the Bank of Canada’s decision. On 2 September, the central bank left its policy rate unchanged at 2.25% for the seventh consecutive meeting, highlighting economic uncertainty stemming from US tariffs and Canada’s retaliatory trade measures.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

[Resolve]

USD/JPY: BoJ Momentum Meets a Fed Still Undecided

USD/JPY is caught in a genuine crossfire this week, and Thursday's move said it all: the yen surged nearly 2% in a single session, touching a one-month high near 155.28, as traders simultaneously priced in higher odds of a Bank of Japan hike and stayed alert to fresh intervention risk following July's joint US-Japan operation. BOJ board member Hajime Takata has even floated the possibility of outsized or back-to-back hikes to contain inflation, while Governor Ueda's comments this week reinforced expectations of a move as early as this month.

The dollar side offers no clean counter-narrative either. August's jobs report reshaped the Fed debate almost overnight, with payrolls coming in well above the 55,000 consensus, briefly reviving September hike bets that had cooled sharply after Fed Governor Waller signalled comfort with holding rates if inflation keeps easing. Markets are now split roughly 50–60% on a September move, leaving Chair Kevin Warsh's guidance, alongside the CPI and PPI prints later this week, as the real tie-breakers.

The result: a yen gaining genuine independent strength from hawkish BOJ signals, against a dollar whose own rate path remains stuck between conflicting data, leaving USD/JPY's next move hostage to whichever central bank commits first.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

[Resolve]

Analytical UK Interest Rate Forecasts 2026–2029

The Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75% in July 2026, its fifth consecutive hold, while three of nine committee members voted for an increase. Before the Middle East conflict pushed energy prices higher in early 2026, most institutions expected further cuts this year. Now the debate is between a long hold and a rise.

This article covers institutional estimates for 2026 and for 2027 to 2030, the calendar events that could affect them, and what the UK interest rate forecast for next 5 years means for markets. Learn UK interest rate forecasts for next 10 years.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

[Resolve]

EUR/AUD: A Quiet RSI Signal Challenges the Downtrend

The euro enters this week's ECB meeting (September 9–10) with genuine hawkish backing, having already been told by insiders that policymakers are prepared to raise rates again to counter the inflationary side-effects of the Middle East conflict, even as they signal little appetite for tightening beyond that. July's hold at 2.25% came with Lagarde explicitly warning that renewed hostilities and the resulting oil price rebound pose upside risks to the inflation outlook, keeping the door firmly open to a move back to 2.50% this week.

The Aussie, meanwhile, is riding one of its strongest stretches in months, hitting a fresh three-month high after Q2 GDP beat expectations at 0.4% quarter-on-quarter, reinforcing bets that the RBA could resume tightening this month. Markets now price a 50–58% chance of a September hike, with a November move seen as effectively locked in, while commodity strength and Australia's growing role in the AI infrastructure boom add further structural support to the currency.

The result: two hawkish central banks converging on rate decisions within days of each other, leaving EUR/AUD's next move to hinge on whether Frankfurt or Canberra delivers the more convincing signal.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

[Resolve]

XNG/USD Analysis: Geopolitical Risk Meets a Fading Uptrend

Natural gas has been on a genuinely volatile ride this week, briefly topping $3.00/MMBtu on Tuesday before reversing sharply lower as fading cooling demand outweighed strong LNG export needs. The commodity, currently trading near $2.91, remains up roughly 4% over the past month despite sitting nearly 7% below year-ago levels.

The supply side tells a comfortable story: US inventories sit 5.2% above the five-year seasonal average, and Lower 48 output remains near record highs, both capping any sustained rally. Yet demand is anything but boring. LNG feedgas flows to major export facilities climbed to 18.3 bcfd in early September from 17.2 bcfd in August as Texas plants returned from maintenance, while European and Asian buyers scramble to rebuild storage ahead of winter amid continued disruptions to Persian Gulf LNG supplies.

That geopolitical thread is the real wildcard. Renewed attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend pushed European gas prices to their highest level in over three years, with Qatar largely suspending LNG shipments and extending force majeure on cargoes through autumn.

The result: a domestic market well-supplied and range-bound, sitting uneasily beneath an international backdrop that could send prices sharply higher if Gulf tensions escalate further.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

[Resolve]

Dollar Fails to Hold Post-NFP Gains: AUD/USD and USD/CAD Test Key Levels

The US dollar failed to hold its gains following a significantly stronger-than-expected US employment report. The economy added 162,000 jobs versus the forecast of 56,000, while the unemployment rate remained at 4.1% and previous employment figures were revised higher. The data initially triggered a sharp rise in the dollar, but the US currency subsequently gave back most of its gains. One factor limiting the impact of the strong report was a slowdown in annual wage growth, which somewhat reduced its overall effect. The market reaction suggests that even strong employment data have not yet led to a sustained repricing of expectations for the Federal Reserve’s future policy.

Market attention is now shifting towards US inflation data. A strong labour market reduces the need for rapid Fed easing, but the future path of interest rates will depend to a large extent on developments in price pressures. As a result, the upcoming inflation figures could become the next key driver for the dollar.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

[Resolve]

Euro and Pound Await New Drivers: Inflation and UK GDP in Focus

The euro and pound are showing subdued moves against the US dollar and have shifted into consolidation following their recent price action. Market participants are reluctant to establish new positions ahead of a key batch of macroeconomic data that could alter expectations for the future policy stance of the major central banks.

The next key market catalysts will be inflation data from Germany and the US. Today, Germany’s annual CPI is forecast to accelerate to 2.9% from 2.8%, which could reinforce expectations of further policy tightening by the ECB and provide support for the euro. However, tomorrow’s US inflation data will be the main event. Headline CPI is expected at 3.4% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month, while core CPI is forecast at 2.4% and 0.2%, respectively. Following the strong employment report, higher-than-expected inflation could strengthen expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain a hawkish stance and support the dollar, while signs of easing price pressures could limit its upside.

For the pound, tomorrow’s UK economic data will provide an additional catalyst. UK GDP for July is forecast to show no growth after expanding by 0.3% in the previous month, despite expectations of a recovery in manufacturing output. Weaker-than-expected figures could reinforce expectations of a more dovish stance from the Bank of England and limit the recovery potential of GBP/USD.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

[Resolve]

Intel Analysis: Attempt to Hold Above the Profile Following a False Trend Breakout

On 8 September, Northland Securities upgraded Intel to Outperform with a price target of $120, citing a shortage of server processors, progress in the company’s business turnaround and potential benefits from its involvement in the Terafab project with Tesla and SpaceX. On the same day, reports emerged that Intel was planning to raise processor prices by around 10% from October amid rising costs and limited supply across the supply chain. The combination of higher prices and a positive rating revision is helping to sustain investor interest in Intel shares against the backdrop of strong performance across the semiconductor sector.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

[Resolve]

Microsoft Analysis: Attempt to Hold Below the Wedge and Profile

On 3 September, OpenAI unveiled its new flagship GPT-6 Astra model, which became available to Microsoft Foundry customers. Microsoft positions the model as a system designed to handle complex, multi-step tasks, including planning sequences of actions, working with documents and spreadsheets, and interacting with applications and interfaces, including scenarios where specialised API capabilities are limited. The expansion of the AI model range available through Microsoft Foundry strengthens Azure’s capabilities for enterprise AI adoption. For Microsoft shares, such product announcements provide an additional positive fundamental backdrop, reflecting the company’s continued development of its AI business.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

[Resolve]

Weekly Market Insights with Gary Thomson: Fed and BoJ Interest Rate Decisions and UK Inflation


Three events could shape currency markets this week, with UK inflation and two key central bank decisions scheduled within just two days.

In this video, Gary Thomson looks at the latest UK inflation data, the Federal Reserve’s unusually uncertain rate decision and the Bank of Japan’s expected policy tightening — and what they could mean for GBP, USD and JPY.

Key topics covered:

UK Inflation — 16 September — With inflation risks building again ahead of the Bank of England’s September meeting and the UK government’s October Budget, could stronger price growth increase expectations for another BoE rate hike later this year and support the British pound?

Fed Interest Rate Decision — 16 September — Markets are pricing in around a 62% probability of a 25-basis-point hike. With a September hike far from fully priced in, the decision itself could trigger a notable market reaction. Economic projections and the press conference may have an additional impact on the US dollar.

BoJ Interest Rate Decision — 18 September — Markets expect a 25-basis-point rate increase, with USD/JPY already falling to its lowest level since February 2026. Could signals about further quarterly hikes provide additional support for the Japanese yen?

With GBP, USD and JPY all sensitive to changing rate expectations, these three events could bring volatility to currency, commodity and equity markets.

Watch it now and stay updated with FXOpen.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

[Resolve]

GBP/USD Analysis: Wedge Breakout Attempt Ahead of Fed and BoE Decisions

The foreign exchange market is heading into a busy week, with the Federal Reserve meeting on 15–16 September, followed by the Bank of England’s rate decision on 17 September. This sequence of central bank meetings, rather than individual macroeconomic releases, is shaping the current fundamental backdrop for the pound. Ahead of the decisions from the two major central banks, market participants are likely to remain cautious as they assess the future direction of monetary policy in the US and UK.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

[Resolve]

EUR/USD: A Broken Trendline Meets the Fed's Biggest Test Yet

EUR/USD sits near 1.1610, just off a one-month low, as tomorrow's Fed decision looms as the week's true catalyst. The ECB delivered its second hike of the year on September 10, lifting the deposit rate to 2.50% and warning that Middle East-driven inflation pressures will keep price growth well above target for an extended period. Lagarde called the move a "no-brainer", yet the euro barely reacted; the hike had been fully priced in, and markets are already pricing more ECB tightening than the central bank's own projections suggest is needed.

The real action lies across the Atlantic. Thursday's hotter-than-expected US CPI print pushed September Fed hike odds sharply higher, from 67% to 88% intraday, though the dollar has struggled to fully capitalise as falling oil prices pull Treasury yields back from three-year highs near 4.99%. Adding political noise, President Trump has reportedly pressed Fed Chair Kevin Warsh directly on rate cuts, a claim Trump himself has downplayed, just as the Fed enters its blackout period ahead of Tuesday's meeting.

The result: an ECB that has already delivered its hawkish surprise with muted market impact, against a Fed whose next move, and its independence from political pressure, could prove far more consequential for EUR/USD heading into Wednesday.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

[Resolve]

How to Use the Opening Range Breakout (ORB) Strategy in Trading


In this video, we'll explore the Opening Range Breakout (ORB) strategy in depth.

• The Opening Range Breakout Strategy Explained
• Using the ORB for Stocks and Forex
• Breakout Strategy
• Pullback Strategy

Watch it now and stay updated with FXOpen.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN YOUTUBE

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

[Resolve]

Smart Money Concept and How To Use It in Trading | SMC Explained


Unlock the secrets of trading with the Smart Money Concept (SMC)—a powerful framework used by professional traders to read the market. In this video, we’ll break down what SMC is, how it works, and how you can use it in your own trading strategy.

What you'll learn:

• What is Smart Money and why it matters
• Key SMC terms: Order Blocks, Break of Structure (BOS), Change of Character (CHoCH), and more
• An example of how to trade with the Smart Money Concept

Watch it now and stay updated with FXOpen.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN YOUTUBE

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

[Resolve]

Learn the Inverted Hammer Candlestick Reversal Pattern in 2 Minutes!


Spot bullish reversals using one of the classic candlestick reversal patterns: the inverted hammer. This candlestick works across forex, stocks, commodities, and more.

In this quick video, you'll learn:

• What the inverted hammer candlestick pattern looks like
• How to identify and trade it
• Common mistakes and how to avoid them

Traders of all levels can use this bullish candlestick pattern to enhance their trading strategy across any timeframe.

Watch it now and stay updated with FXOpen.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN YOUTUBE

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

[Resolve]

The TOP-3 most popular trading strategies for Forex scalping


The video explains three most popular 5-minute trading strategies for Forex scalping, a technique involving multiple short-term trades on low timeframes. These strategies cater to traders seeking quick rewards but demand substantial funds, experience, and a robust plan for success.

Momo Strategy:

Setup: Uses EMA and MACD signals, emphasizing the use of a 20-period EMA and specific MACD settings on a 5-minute chart.
Entry: Long positions are considered when the price breaks above EMA and MACD is above the zero line. Shorts are taken when the price crosses below the 20-period moving average and MACD is below zero.
Take Profit & Stop Loss: Involves trailing take-profit orders and strategically placed stop-loss orders.

EMA and RSI:

Setup: Employs three EMAs (9, 55, 200) and RSI with altered levels to identify overbought and oversold conditions.
Entry: Buy when MA1 is above MA2 and MA2 is above MA3 and RSI above the level 52; sell when MA1 is below MA2 and MA2 is below MA3 and RSI below the level 48.
Take Profit & Stop Loss: Determines exit points based on RSI's high or low formations and utilizes nearest support/resistance as stop-loss targets.

EMA, MACD, and Bollinger Bands:

Setup: Uses EMAs (5, 20), Bollinger Bands, and MACD with standard settings.
Entry: Buy when 5-period EMA crosses 20-period EMA upward, price near lower Bollinger Band, and MACD histogram above zero; sell under opposite conditions.
Take Profit & Stop Loss: Closes trades based on MACD histogram highs/lows and sets stop-loss orders relative to support/resistance levels.

Watch it now and stay updated with FXOpen.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN YOUTUBE

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

[Resolve]

NVIDIA Analysis: Attempted Rising Wedge Breakout Amid Pressure on the AI Sector

Nvidia’s short-term fundamental backdrop has deteriorated. On 14 September, the company’s shares fell 3.4% amid a sell-off in AI-related stocks driven by concerns over a potential slowdown in the pace of artificial intelligence development. However, Nvidia’s business outlook remains strong, with the company forecasting revenue growth of around 70% in fiscal 2028. An additional risk factor is a US Department of Justice investigation into Nvidia’s $17 billion agreement with Groq over potential attempts to circumvent antitrust oversight.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

[Resolve]

UnitedHealth: Fundamentals Are Healing, Now the Chart Must Agree

UnitedHealth finds itself in a genuinely split narrative right now, trading near $388, down about 15.9% from its 52-week high, even as the fundamental picture keeps improving. Q2 earnings beat expectations, with revenue of $112.03 billion, and the company followed through with a significant policy shift: lifting prior-authorization requirements on roughly 1,700 diagnostic codes starting October 1, a move that could meaningfully ease administrative friction with providers and support margins going forward.

Wall Street's conviction has only grown stronger as a result. Wells Fargo and Bernstein both reaffirmed Buy ratings this month, with price targets near $526 and $512 respectively, while the broader consensus, a Moderate Buy across 27 analysts, points to an average target of $456.56, implying roughly 17% upside from current levels.

The stock has nonetheless struggled to find sustained momentum, weighed down by lingering concerns over Medicare Advantage margin recovery and, more recently, the shock of losing a senior executive, an event that has triggered internal restructuring and closer scrutiny of governance and security practices.

The result: a company delivering genuinely solid operational improvement, but one whose stock price has yet to fully reflect it.

TO VIEW THE FULL ANALYSIS, VISIT FXOPEN BLOG

Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.