Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

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EUR/AUD: Two Central Banks on Hold, One Triangle About to Break

Overnight, the RBA held its cash rate steady at 4.35%, as widely expected after June's inflation data came in softer than forecast at 3.8% headline. Yet the accompanying statement struck a notably cautious tone, warning that trimmed mean inflation remains elevated and largely unchanged from the March quarter, with oil and related commodities still trading above pre-conflict levels due to the ongoing Middle East crisis. With 55% of economists still expecting at least one further hike in 2026, the door to additional tightening remains firmly open.

The euro, meanwhile, holds a cautiously bullish tone after climbing to a seven-week high near $1.155 against the dollar. Eurozone Q2 growth of 0.4% offered support, though weaker retail activity and mixed inflation signals keep the ECB's own path uncertain, with policymakers maintaining a deliberately cautious stance ahead of their September 15-16 meeting and giving no firm commitment to further hikes.

The result: two central banks in genuine holding patterns, each leaving the door open to more tightening while waiting for clearer data to justify the next move.

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EUR/USD and GBP/USD Await a Fresh Impulse from Inflation Data

The euro and pound are holding their ground against the US dollar, although the momentum in European currencies has become more subdued following their previous gains. Market participants are reluctant to establish new positions ahead of the release of the July US inflation report, which could alter expectations for the Federal Reserve’s future policy. Recent labour market data is also encouraging caution: a weak ADP report and a decline in the ISM employment component have added to signs of a gradual cooling in the US labour market.

Today, the main focus will be on the US Consumer Price Index (CPI). According to forecasts, annual inflation may slow to 3.4% from 3.5%, while monthly prices are expected to rise by 0.1% after falling 0.4% a month earlier. Core CPI is forecast at 2.5% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month. Weaker-than-expected figures could strengthen expectations of monetary policy easing by the Fed and put additional pressure on the dollar. If inflation comes in above forecasts or proves more persistent, the US currency could receive fresh support. Final inflation figures for Germany and Italy will also be released in Europe, although their impact is likely to remain limited in the absence of significant deviations from preliminary estimates. Therefore, US inflation data is likely to be the main driver for EUR/USD and GBP/USD during today's session.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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DAX 40: Record Highs, Real Fundamentals, One Channel Left to Test

Germany's benchmark index just made history, breaking above 26,500 for the first time ever, extending a rally that has already delivered close to 10% over the past twelve months. The move came on fresh optimism around a potential resolution to the Iran conflict, though that optimism proved short-lived: President Trump's latest demands, that Tehran compensate for lives lost in recent attacks, have since added friction to already fragile diplomatic efforts around reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and the index has pulled back modestly from its peak.

Beneath the geopolitical noise, the underlying story remains genuinely constructive. Stronger-than-expected industrial production and export data have reinforced confidence in German manufacturing, while a wave of solid corporate earnings, alongside notable strength from SAP and Infineon, has kept sentiment firmly bullish. Roughly a third of this year's growth still owes to calendar effects and government stimulus in defence and infrastructure, a detail worth remembering, but private-sector momentum finally looks like it's stabilizing rather than collapsing.

The result: a record-breaking index now testing whether Middle East headlines can derail a rally built on genuinely improving fundamentals.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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Natural Gas Analysis: Attempted Wedge Breakout Amid Lower EIA Forecast

On 11 August, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) lowered its forecast for the average natural gas price in the third quarter to $2.87 per million BTU — 50 cents below its previous estimate. The main reason is increased domestic production and inventories, which could create the largest stockpile in a decade ahead of the start of the heating season. Planned maintenance at the Freeport LNG export terminal may have added further pressure to the balance by reducing demand for gas used in liquefaction. Meanwhile, global LNG trade had already faced shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz in July, highlighting the market’s continued sensitivity to geopolitical risks.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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The US Dollar Strengthens After Inflation Data: AUD/USD and USD/CAD at Key Levels

The US dollar strengthened against commodity currencies following the release of July US inflation data. The annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in at 3.4%, exactly in line with forecasts and down from the previous 3.5%, while prices rose by 0.1% month-on-month. Core inflation also matched expectations, at 0.2% month-on-month and 2.5% year-on-year. Despite the continued easing in price pressures, the report did not deliver any additional disinflationary surprise to the market. Inflation is gradually moving towards the Fed’s target, but the current pace of decline is still insufficient to significantly strengthen expectations of an imminent easing of monetary policy. Against this backdrop, the US dollar managed to recover some of its earlier losses.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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EUR/GBP Analysis: Triangle Breakout Attempt Following an Uptrend

On 13 August, the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that GDP growth slowed to 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter, down from 0.6% in the first quarter. The figure was in line with expectations, and the market reaction was relatively muted.

The interest-rate backdrop has also remained broadly unchanged for several weeks. On 30 July, the Bank of England kept its policy rate at 3.75%, while the ECB left its rate at 2.25% on 23 July. With both decisions largely priced into the market, the absence of fresh guidance from either central bank means that short-term EUR/GBP price action may be driven more by technical factors than by the latest macroeconomic data.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

 

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Meta: One Trendline Away From Reversing an Eight-Month Downtrend

Meta just delivered a genuinely strange quarter: revenue beat, earnings missed, and the market couldn't quite decide how to feel about it. Q2 revenue came in at $60.8 billion, above the $60.22 billion consensus and up 28% year-over-year, yet EPS landed at $6.18 against $7.19 expected, sending shares down roughly 3.4% in the immediate aftermath.

The real story sits beneath the headline numbers. Free cash flow collapsed 91% year-over-year to just $784 million, a direct consequence of Zuckerberg's aggressive AI buildout, with capex alone hitting $31.1 billion in the quarter as part of a planned $130-145 billion for the full year. The company is betting big on what it calls "personal superintelligence," recently launching new Muse AI models to back that ambition, while its Family of Apps still reached 3.6 billion daily active people in June, proof the core business remains formidable.

Adding to the pressure, fresh privacy scrutiny in Europe and mounting US legal challenges around youth safety have kept sentiment cautious. With shares down roughly 11% year-to-date and trading well below their 52-week high near $796, the market is clearly still weighing whether this AI bet will pay off.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only (excluding FXOpen EU). It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.