AceTraderFx : Daily Recommendations on Major

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Apr 26: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 26 Apr 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 107.72
Despite dollar's resumption of decline from March's 1-year peak at 110.96 to a fresh 6-week bottom of 107.49 in at New York open on Friday, subsequent bounce in tandem with recovery in US yields suggests temporary low is possibly made and above 108.54/62 would bring stronger retracement to 108.80/85 but 109.09 should hold today, yield retreat.

On the downside, below 107.49 would risk marginal weakness to 107.77 before prospect of rebound due to loss of momentum.

Data to be released later today:
Germany Ifo business climate, Ifo current conditions, Ifo expectations.
U.S. durable goods, durables ex-transport, durables ex-defence, Dallas Fed manufacturing index on Monday.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Apr 27: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 27 Apr 2021 03:00GMT

UR/USD - 1.2080
Euro's retreat from Monday's 8-week high of 1.2116 to 1.2062 suggests recent strong upmove has possibly made a temporary top and subsequent bounce to 1.2094 would bring initial consolidation in Asia, below 1.2062 would yield retracement to 1.2047, then later towards 1.1994.

Only above 1.2116 risks marginal gain, however, loss of upward momentum should cap price well below 1.2169 and yield a long-overdue correction ahead of Wednesday's key FOMC announcement.

Economic calendar in the euro area countries is pretty light with data due out from Italy (please see EI page for details) which will be overlooked by traders.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Apr 27: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 27 Apr 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 108.34
Despite dollar's resumption of decline from March's 1-year peak at 110.96 to a fresh 6-week bottom of 107.49 in at New York open on Friday, subsequent bounce to 108.19 yesterday, then 108.38 today in tandem with recovery in US yields suggests temporary low is possibly made and above 108.54/62 would bring stronger retracement to 108.80/85 but 109.09 should hold today, yield retreat.

On the downside, below 107.49 would risk marginal weakness to 107.77 before prospect of rebound due to loss of momentum.

Data to be released on Tuesday :
Italy business confidence, consumer confidence, trade balance, U.K. CBI distributive trades.
U.S. redbook, monthly home price, consumer confidence, Richmond Fed manufacturing.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Apr 28: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 28 Apr 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2088
Yesterday's rebound from 1.2057 to 1.2091 suggests pullback from Monday's 8-week high at 1.2116 has ended and recent strong upmove from 1.1705 (March) would yield marginal gain, loss of upward momentum should cap euro at 1.2160/69 and yield a long-overdue correction.

A daily close below 1.2057 would be 1st signal temporary top is made, then stronger retracement towards chart objective at 1.1994 would follow later this week.

The euro area countries will release a slew of eco. data (please refer to our EI page for details), pay attention to German Gfk consumer confidence at 06:00GMT.
ECB President Lagarde Lagarde will speak at a forum named "Global Leaders Series" at 14:00GMT.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Apr 28: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 28 Apr 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 108.98
Dollar's rally from last Friday's 6-week low at 107.49 to 108.77 yesterday, then intra-day break there on rise in U.S. yields suggests decline from March's 1-year 110.96 peak has made a temporary bottom and stronger retracement to 109.70/75 would be seen after consolidation before prospect of retreat due to overbought condition.

On the downside, only below 108.50/54 indicates top made and risks weakness to 108.38/42, then 108.19, however, reckon 107.91/95 should hold.

Data to be released on Wednesday :
U.K. BRC shop price index, Japan retail sales, Australia CPI, Germany Gfk consumer sentiment, France consumer confidence, Swiss investor sentiment.
U.S. MBA mortgage application, trade balance, wholesale inventories, Fed interest rate decision, Canada retail sales.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Apr 29: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 29 Apr 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2134
Euro's intra-day rally above Monday's 1.2116 high to a fresh 8-week peak of 1.2134 Wednesday after Fed's dovish hold suggests recent strong upmove from March's 4-1/2 month trough at 1.1705 would head to 1.2175/80, however, overbought condition should prevent strong gain and reckon 1.2200/10 would cap upside and yield a long-overdue correction.

A daily close below 1.2102 would signal temporary top is in place and heads back towards 1.2057 but 1.1994/99 should contain weakness.

Data to be released on Thursday :
New Zealand imports, trade balance, exports, NBNZ business outlook, NBNZ outlook activity, Australia export prices, import prices.
U.K. nationwide house price, Germany import prices, unemployment change, unemployment rate, CPI, HICP, Italy producer prices, EU economic sentiment, industrial sentiment, services sentiment, consumer confidence, business climate.
US GDP, GDP deflator, PCE prices, initial jobless claims, continuous jobless claims, pending home sales, Canada average weekly earnings.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Apr 29: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 29 Apr 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 108.90
Despite yesterday's retreat from a near 2-week high at 109.07 to 108.58 in post-FOMC New York, then 108.44 at Asian open today, intra-day rise in tandem with U.S. yields suggests pullback has ended and upmove from April's 6-week 107.49 trough would head to 109.20/25 after consolidation, however, reckon 109.75/77 should cap upside today.

On the downside, only below 108.38/44 would risk weakness to 108.08, then possibly 107.91/95.

Financial markets in Japan are closed for Showa Day holiday, the first of 4 days of Golden Week holiday (next is Monday). U.S. will release a slew of eco. data, pay attention to Q1 GDP, PCE (Fed's preferred inflation gauge) and jobless claims.
Also, we have Fed officials Quarles and Williams speaking at 15:00GMT n 18:00GMT respectively.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Apr 30: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 30 Apr 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2125
Despite euro's retreat from Thursday's fresh 8-week high of 1.2149, as long as 1.2092/02 area holds, marginal gain is envisaged but loss of momentum should cap price below 1.2200 and yield retracement of upmove from 1.1705 (March low).

Below 1.2092 confirms temporary top is made and yields a long-overdue correction to 1.2057, then towards 1.1994 next week.

Data to be released on Friday :
Japan Tokyo CPI, unemployment rate, industrial output, Jibun bank manufacturing PMI, construction orders, housing starts, consumer confidence, China NBS manufacturing PMI, NBS non-manufacturing PMI, Australia PPI.
France GDP, CPI, producer prices, U.K. nationwide house price, Swiss retail sales, KOF indicators, Italy unemployment rate, GDP, CPI, Germany GDP, EU HICP, GDP, unemployment rate.
U.S. personal income, personal spending, PCE price index, employment wages, employment costs, Chicago PMI, U. Mich. sentiment, Canada GDP, producer prices, budget balance.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Apr 30: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 30 Apr 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 108.86
The greenback's break above Wednesday's high at 109.07 to a 2-week peak at 109.22 yesterday on rally in U.S. yields suggests upmove from last Friday's 6-week bottom at 107.49 to retrace decline from March's 1-year peak at 110.96 remains in progress and further gain to 109.59 would be seen after consolidation, however, loss of momentum would keep price below 109.90/00 and yield correction early next week.

On the downside, only below 108.44 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement to 108.08/10 before prospect of a rebound.

T.G.I.F., U.S. will release a slew of eco. data on the last trading day in Apr, pls refer to our EI page for details. Pay attention to PCE index (Fed's preferred inflation gauge) n later Chicago PMI n then University of Michigan consumer confidence. Dallas Fed President Kaplan will speak at 13:45GMT.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx May 03: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 03 May 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2030
Euro's selloff below previous 1.2057 sup on Friday to a near 1-week low at 1.2017 due to broad-based short covering in usd suggests recent upmove has made a temporary top at Thursday's 8-week peak of 1.2149 and below 1.1994 would bring stronger correction towards 1.1948 'later' this week.

Only a daily close above 1.2057 yields stronger recovery but 1.2103 (Thursday's low, now res) should cap upside and yield another fall ahead of Friday's key U.S. jobs data.

Data to be released today :
Australia AIG manufacturing index, manufacturing PMI.
Germany retail sales, Swiss manufacturing PMI, Italy markit manufacturing PMI, France markit manufacturing PMI, Germany markit manufacturing PMI, EU markit manufacturing PMI.
Canada markit manufacturing PMI, U.S. markit manufacturing PMI, construction spending, ISM manufacturing PMI on Monday.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx May 03: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 03 May 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 109.67
The greenback's break above Friday's high at 109.27 to a 2-week peak at 109.67 today on usd's continued strength suggests upmove from last Friday's 6-week bottom at 107.49 to retrace decline from March's 1-year peak at 110.96 remains in progress and further gain to 109.95/00 would be seen after consolidation, however, loss of momentum would keep price below 110.20/25 and yield correction early next week.

On the downside, only below 108.44 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement to 108.08/10 before prospect of a rebound.

The U.S. will later release a slew of eco. data, please refer to our EI page for details n pay attention to Markit mfp index n ISM mfg PMI. We also have New York Fed Williams n last but not least, Fed chief's J. Powell speaking at 18:10GMT n 18:20GMT respectively.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx May 04: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 04 May 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2053
Euro's rally on Mon from 1.2014 (Europe) to 1.2075 due to usd's weakness in New York suggests 1st leg of correction fm Apr's 8-week peak at 1.2149 has ended and 1-2 days of choppy consolidation is in store.

Expect 1.2116 to cap intra-day gain and yield decline, below 1.2035/40 signals recovery over and yields re-test of 1.2014, then 1.1994 later.

Data to be released on Tuesday :
Australia trade balance, imports, exports, RBA interest rate decision.
France budget balance, Swiss consumer confidence, U.K. markit manufacturing PMI.
U.S. trade balance, redbook, ISM New York index, durables ex-defense, durable goods, factory orders, durable ex-transport, Canada building permits, trade balance, exports, imports, New Zealand GDT price index.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx May 04: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 04 May 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 109.37
The greenback's break above Friday's high at 109.27 to a 2-week peak at 109.69 yesterday on usd's continued strength suggests upmove from last Friday's 6-week bottom at 107.49 to retrace decline from March's 1-year peak at 110.96 remains in progress and further gain to 109.95/00 would be seen after consolidation, however, loss of momentum would keep price below 110.20/25 and yield correction early next week.

On the downside, only below 108.44 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement to 108.08/10 before prospect of a rebound.

U.S. will later release a slew of eco. data later today, please refer to our EI page for details n pay attention to Mar durable goods n factory orders at 14:00GMT. Dallas n Minneapolis Fed Presidents are scheduled to speak at 17:00GMT, then later San Franciso Fed President Daly.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx May 05: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 05 May 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2017
Despite euro's recovery after yesterday's resumption of recent decline from April's 8-week peak of 1.2149 to 1.2000 (Europe), outlook remains mildly bearish for one more fall, however, near term loss of downward momentum should keep price above sup at 1.1943 and bring rebound later today or tomorrow.

Only a daily close above 1.2035 (Tuesday's New York high) signals temporary low is in place and may risk stronger retracement towards 1.2075 before another fall.

Today is PMI day in the euro area countries, pls refer to our EI page for details n pay attention to Markit services PMI for Germany n the EU at 07:55GMT n 08:00GMT respectively, if actual readings come in below street forecast, euro will fall b4 prospect of recovery. ECB Board member Lane will participate in a financial event at 14:00GMT.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx May 05: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 05 May 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 109.36
The greenback's break above Friday's high at 109.27 to a 2-week peak at 109.69 on Monday on usd's continued strength suggests upmove from last April's 6-week bottom at 107.49 to retrace decline from March's 1-year peak at 110.96 remains in progress and further gain to 109.95/00 would be seen after consolidation, however, loss of momentum would keep price below 110.20/25 and yield correction early next week.

On the downside, only below 108.44 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement to 108.08/10 before prospect of a rebound.

Data to be released on Wednesday :
Australia AIG construction index, services PMI, building permits, New Zealand unemployment rate, employment change, labour cost.
Swiss CPI, Italy markit services PMI, France markit services PMI, Germany markit services PMI, EU markit services PMI, producer prices.
U.S. MBA mortgage app, ADP employment change, markit services PMI, ISM non-manufacturing PMI.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx May 06: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 06 May 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2006
Despite Wednesday's resumption of recent decline to a 2-week trough of 1.1987, near term loss of downward momentum would prevent steep fall and reckon daily sup at 1.1943 should remain intact and yield a long-overdue retracement.

Above 1.2035 signals temporary low is in place and may head back to 1.2055/65 before prospect of another fall tomorrow.

On the eco. data front, Germany will kick off with industrial orders, then EU will release economic bulletin n retail sales. Pay attention to speeches by several ECB officials (pls refer to our EI page for details), ECB President Lagarde will speak at a conference organised by European Commision at 11:25GMT.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx May 06: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 06 May 2021 09:30GMT

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 06 May 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 109.35
The greenback's sideways move after Monday's break above last Friday's high at 109.27 to a 2-week peak at 109.69 suggests upmove from last April's 6-week bottom at 107.49 to retrace decline from March's 1-year peak at 110.96 remains in progress and further gain to 109.95/00 would be seen after consolidation, however, loss of momentum would keep price below 110.20/25 and yield correction early next week.

On the downside, only below 108.44 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement to 108.08/10 before prospect of a rebound.

Data to be released on Thursday :
New Zealand building permits, ANZ business confidence, ANZ activity outlook.
Germany industrial orders, U.K. markit services PMI, BOE interest rate decision, asset purchase program, BOE QE total, BOE QE corporate bond purchases, BoE MPC ote hike, BoE MPC vote unchanged, BoE MPC vote cut, EU retail sales.
U.S. initial jobless claims, continuous jobless claims, labour costs, productivity.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx May 07: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 07 May 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2065
Although Thur's impressive rise from 1.1994 to 1.2071 (New York) due to renewed usd's weakness on return of risk appetite suggests early decline from April's 8-week peak at 1.2149 has made a low at 1.1987 (Wednesday), a daily close above 1.2075 needed to turn outlook bullish for further gain towards 1.2149 next week.

On the downside, a firm break of 1.2035 would signal recovery has ended, then risk would shift to downside for re-test of 1.1987.

The euro area countries will release a slew of eco. data, pls refer to our EI page for details. ECB President Lagarde wlll speak at a forum called the State of the Union 2021at 10:00GMT.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx May 07: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 07 May 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 109.14
The greenback's sideways move after Monday's break above last Friday's high at 109.27 to a 2-week peak at 109.69 suggests upmove from last April's 6-week bottom at 107.49 to retrace decline from March's 1-year peak at 110.96 remains in progress and further gain to 109.95/00 would be seen after consolidation, however, loss of momentum would keep price below 110.20/25 and yield correction early next week.

On the downside, only below 108.44 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement to 108.08/10 before prospect of a rebound.

Data to be released on Friday :
Australia AIG services index, Japan Services PMI, China Caixin services PMI, exports, imports, trade balance, New Zealand inflation forecast
Swiss unemployment rate, Germany industrial output, exports, imports, trade balance, current account, France current account, industrial output, non-farm payrolls, trade balance, imports, exports, Italy retail sales, U.K. Markit construction PMI.
U.S. non-farm payrolls, private payrolls, unemployment rate, average earnings, wholesale inventory, wholesale sales, Canada employment change, unemployment rate, Ivey PMI.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx May 10: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 10 May 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2173
Euro's rally on Friday in New York from 1.2059 to a 9-week high of 1.2171 due to broad-based usd's selloff following big miss in U.S. payrolls suggests recent upmove from 1.1705 (March) would extend further gain, overbought condition should cap price below daily pivotal res at 1.2242 (February peak).

On the downside, only below 1.2090 signals temporary top is in place and may risk stronger retracement towards 1.2059 later.

On the data front, the only eco. indicator due out is EU's Sentix investor confidence for May, street forecast is 14.0 vs prev. reading of 13.1.