AceTraderFx : Daily Recommendations on Major

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx Apr 12: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 12 Apr 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 109.46
Despite the greenback's erratic decline from March's 1-year peak at 110.96 to a 2-week bottom at 109.01 Thursday in tandem with falling U.S. yields, subsequent rebound suggests a temporary low has possibly been made and consolidation with upside bias remains for stronger retracement to 110.10/15, however, 110.38 (previous support) should remain intact and yield retreat early next week.

On the downside, only below 109.01 would revive bearishness for one more fall to 108.67/70 before prospect of correction due to loss of momentum.

Later in New York session, we have Boston Fed's President Eric Rosengren scheduled to speak at 17:00 GMT.
 

AceTRaderForex

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Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx Apr 13: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 13 Apr 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1912
Despite euro's daily sideways swings following early retreat from last Thursday's 2-week high of 1.1927, as long as previous good sup at 1.1861/62 holds, corrective rise from Mar's 4-1/2 month trough at 1.1705 would extend marginal gain, 'loss of upward momentum' should cap price below 1.1990 and yield decline.

A daily close below said sup signals 1st least the 1st leg of correction over and heads back to 1.1786/96 later this week.

On the data front, Germany will kick off with wholesale price index, then ZEW economic sentiment, current conditions n survey expectation. Italy will release industrial output.
 

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx AceTraderFx Apr 13: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 13 Apr 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 109.39
Despite the greenback's erratic decline from March's 1-year peak at 110.96 to a 2-week bottom at 109.01 Thursday in tandem with falling U.S. yields, subsequent rebound suggests a temporary low has possibly been made and consolidation with upside bias remains for stronger retracement to 110.10/15, however, 110.38 (previous support) should remain intact and yield retreat early next week.

On the downside, only below 109.01 would revive bearishness for one more fall to 108.67/70 before prospect of correction due to loss of momentum.

Data to be released on Tuesday :
New Zealand NZIER confidence, retail sales, Australia NAB business conditions, NAB business confidence.
U.K. BRC retail sales, GDP, Industrial output, manufacturing output, construction output, trade balance, Italy industrial output, Germany wholesale price index, ZEW economic sentiment, ZEW current conditions, EU ZEW survey expectation.
U.S. core CPI, CPI, redbook.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx Apr 14: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 14 Apr 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1950
Yesterday's break of last week's 1.1927 high to 1.1955 due to usd's weakness on falling US yields suggests recent corrective rise from 1.1705 (March) has resumed, loss of upward momentum is expected to cap price at 1.1988/90 and bring at least a strong retracement of aforesaid upmove.

A daily close below 1.1927 signals temporary top is in place and yields weakness to 1.1861/65 later this week.

On the data front, we have EU's industrial production for Feb. A number of ECB officials including ECB President Lagarde will speak later today, please refer to our EI section for details.
 

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx Apr 14: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 14 Apr 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 108.97
Although the greenback's fall below last Thursday's 2-week bottom at 109.01 signals decline from March's 1-year peak at 110.96 has once again resumed and consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness to 108.67, reckon near term loss of momentum would keep price above 108.41 today and yield a much-needed correction later this week.

On the upside, only above 109.75/77 would indicate a temporary low has been made and risk a stronger retracement of aforesaid downtrend to res 109.95.

Data to be released on Wednesday :
Japan machinery orders, China exports, trade balance, Australia consumer sentiment, New Zealand RBNZ interest rate decision.
EU industrial production, U.S. MBA mortgage app, import prices, export prices.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx Apr 15: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 15 Apr 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1982
Despite euro's resumption of recent upmove from March's 4-1/2 month trough at 1.1705 to 1.1987 yesterday, loss of upward momentum would prevent strong gain above daily 1.1990 res and yield retreat, below 1.1927 (previous res, now sup) indicates top is in place and heads back towards 1.1878.

Only a daily close above psychological 1.2000 handle may risk stronger gain to 1.2045/50 before prospect of decline.

Data to be released on Thursday :
New Zealand food price index, Australia consumer inflation experience, employment change, unemployment rate.
Germany CPI, HICP, wholesale price index, France CPI, Italy CPI.
U.S. New York Fed manufacturing, initial jobless claims, continuous jobless claims, Philly Fed manufacturing index, retail sales, industrial production, capacity utilization, manufacturing output, business inventories, NAHB housing market index, Canada manufacturing sales, ADP employment change.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx Apr 15: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 15 Apr 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 108.74
Although the greenback's intra-day break below yesterday's near 3-week bottom at 108.76 signals decline from March's 1-year peak at 110.96 has once again resumed and consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness to 108.67, reckon near term loss of momentum would keep price above 108.41 today and yield a much-needed correction later this week.

On the upside, only above 109.75/77 would indicate a temporary low has been made and risk a stronger retracement of aforesaid downtrend to res 109.95

The U.S. will release a slew of eco. data later today (please refer to EI page for details) n pay attention to March retail sales, a stronger-than-expected number (forecast is 5.9% vs prev. reading of -3.0%) will lifted U.S. yields n in turn, the greenback. We have have a number of Fed officials scheduled to speak in New York session.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx Apr 16: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 16 Apr 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1970 Despite euro's intra-day retreat after hitting a 5-week peak of 1.1993 (Europe), as long as 1.1952/57 sup holds, corrective rise from March's 4-1/2 month bottom at 1.1705 may extend marginal gain, loss of upward momentum would cap price at 1.2024 and yield retracement of aforesaid rise.

A daily close below 1.1952 signals temporary top is made and heads back towards 1.1878 early next week.

Data to be released on Friday :
New Zealand manufacturing PMI, China housing prices, industrial output, retail sales.
Swiss producer/import price, Italy trade balance, EU trade balance, HICP.
U.S. building permits, housing starts, U. Mich. sentiment, Canada wholesale trade.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx Apr 16: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 16 Apr 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 108.88
Although the greenback's break below Wednesday's near 3-week bottom at 108.76 to 108.62 yesterday signals decline from March's 1-year peak at 110.96 has once again resumed and consolidation with downside bias remains for marginal weakness, reckon near term loss of momentum would keep price above 108.41 today and yield a much-needed correction early next week.

On the upside, only above 109.25/30 would indicate a temporary low has been made and risk a stronger retracement of aforesaid downtrend to res 109.75/77.

T.G.I.F., U.S. will later release building permits , housing starts n University of Michigan consumer confidence. Dallas Fed President Kaplan will speak at 14:45GMT n then 16:30GMT.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
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74
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AceTraderFx Apr 19: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 19 Apr 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1973
Despite Friday's retreat from a fresh 5-week peak of 1.1994, as long as 1.1951 sup (Friday low) holds, euro's recent corrective upmove would extend marginal gain after consolidation, however, loss of upward momentum would limit upside to 1.2027 and yield decline later today or tomorrow.

A daily close below 1.1951 signals long-awaited retracement has occurred and would head back to 1.1927 1st, then 1.1695/00.

Data to be released today :
U.K. rightmove house price, Japan exports, imports, trade balance, industrial output, capacity utilization, industrial output, EU construction output, current account on Monday.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
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74
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AceTraderFx Apr 19: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 19 Apr 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 108.04
The greenback's intra-day fall below last Thursday's 3-week trough at 108.62 signals decline from March's 1-year peak at 110.96 has once again resumed and downside bias remains for weakness to 107.77, however, oversold condition would prevent sharp fall below there and reckon support at 107.40/50 would remain intact and yield a much-needed correction later this week.

On the upside, only above 108.62 would indicate a temporary bottom has been made and risk stronger retracement to 108.96/00.

No eco. data is due out from the U.S. so traders need to take cue from intra-day movement in U.S. yields n U.S. stock futures.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
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74
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AceTraderFx Apr 20: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 20 Apr 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2043
Euro's rally on Monday above last week's 1.1994 high (now sup) to a 6-week top at 1.2048 suggests recent rise from March's 4-1/2 month bottom at 1.1705 would extend marginal gain, near term loss of upward momentum should cap price below March's peak at 1.2112 and yield decline later this week.

A daily close below 1.1994 anytime indicates said upmove has made a top, then stronger retracement towards 1.1943 would follow.

Data to be released on Tuesday :
Japan tertiary industry index, Germany producer prices.
U.K. claimant count, ILO unemployment rate, employment change, average weekly earnings.
U.S. redbook.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx Apr 20: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 20 Apr 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 108.49
The greenback's intra-day break below yesterday's 6-week trough at 108.02 signals decline from March's 1-year peak at 110.96 has once again resumed and downside bias remains for weakness to 107.77, however, over sold condition would prevent sharp fall below there and reckon support at 107.40/50 would remain intact and yield a much-needed correction later this week.

On the upside, only above 108.62 would indicate a temporary bottom has been made and risk stronger retracement to 108.96/00.

U.S. economic calendar is pretty light with 2nd-tier Redbook sales being the only data due out later today, so traders will take cue from intra-day move in benchmark U.S. 10-year yield and U.S. S&P 500 stock futures index.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx Apr 21: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 21 Apr 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2038
Although euro's retreat from Tuesday's 6-week peak of 1.2079 to 1.2023 (NY) suggests recent upmove from 1.1705 (March) has made a temporary top, as long as 1.1994 (previous res, now sup) holds, mild upside bias remains for marginal gain, 'loss of upward momentum' should cap price below daily res at 1.2112 and yield strong retracement of aforesaid rise later today or tomorrow.

Below 1.1994 anytime signals long-awaited correction has taken place and would head back towards 1.1943.

Data to be released on Wednesday :
New Zealand CPI, Australia Westpac leading index, retail sales.
U.K. core CPI, CPI, RPI, core RPI, PPI input prices, PPI output prices, PPI core output prices, DCLG house price index.
U.S. MBA mortgage application, Canada CPI, CPI BoC core, core CPI, Bank of Canada interest rate decision.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
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74
Hong Kong
www.acetraderfx.com
AceTraderFx Apr 21: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 21 Apr 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 108.24
Despite dollar's resumption of decline from March's 1-year peak at 110.96 to a 6-week bottom of 107.88 at Asian open today, intra-day bounce in tandem with recovery in US yields suggests temporary low is possibly made and above 108.54/62 would bring stronger retracement to 108.80/85 but 109.09 should hold today, yield retreat.

On the downside, below 107.88 would risk marginal weakness to 107.77 before prospect of rebound due to loss of momentum.

U.S. economic calendar is very thin with 2nd-tier MBA mortgage applications being the only data out later today, therefore, traders will continue to take cue from intra-day moves in US yields n US stock futures as dlr rallied in tandem with intra-day bounce in US yields in Europe yesterday and later fell as US yields came off again on weakness in U.S. stocks.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
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74
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www.acetraderfx.com
AceTraderFx Apr 22: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 22 Apr 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2037
Yesterday's rebound from 1.1999 to 1.2038 (New York) suggests pullback from Tuesday's 6-week peak at 1.2079 has possibly ended and above 1.2043/48 would bring re-test of said res, loss of upward momentum should cap price below 1.2112 (March high) and bring correction later today or tomorrow.

Below 1.1994/99 anytime signals recent upmove from 1.1705 has made a top, then stronger retracement towards 1.1943 would follow.

Market focus today will be the European Central Bank meeting with refinancing rate and deposit rate scheduled to be released at 11:45 GMT. Traders should pay close attention to President Christine Lagarde's press conference at 12:30 GMT
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
3,779
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74
Hong Kong
www.acetraderfx.com
AceTraderFx Apr 22: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 22 Apr 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 108.05
Despite dollar's resumption of decline from March's 1-year peak at 110.96 to a fresh 6-week bottom of 107.82 in early European morning today, subsequent bounce in tandem with recovery in US yields suggests temporary low is possibly made and above 108.54/62 would bring stronger retracement to 108.80/85 but 109.09 should hold today, yield retreat.

On the downside, below 107.82 would risk marginal weakness to 107.77 before prospect of rebound due to loss of momentum.

Data to be released on Thursday :
Swiss trade balance, exports, imports, France business climate, Italy industrial sales, U.K. CBI trends orders, EU ECB refinancing rate, ECB deposit rate, consumer confidence.
U.S. initial jobless claims, continuous jobless claims, existing home sales, leading index change, KC Fed manufacturing , Canada new housing price index.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
3,779
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74
Hong Kong
www.acetraderfx.com
AceTraderFx Apr 22: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 23 Apr 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2014
Euro's brief break of Wednesday's 1.1999 low to 1.1994 Thursday in post-ECB New York strongly suggests recent upmove from March's 4-1/2 month bottom at 1.1705 has made a temporary at 1.2079 (Tuesday) and consolidation with downside bias is in store for further weakness, near term oversold condition is likely to keep price above this week's trough at 1.1943 (Monday) and bring recovery.

On the upside, only above 1.2069 (New York high) risks re-test of 1.2079 but loss of upward momentum should cap price below daily res at 1.2112.

Today is PMI day in the euro area countries, please refer to our EI page for details n pay attention to Germany's n the EU's Markit mfg n services PMIs at 07:30GMT n 08:00GMT respectively, if actual readings come in lower than street forecast, then expect euro to come under renewed selling pressure.
ECB President Lagarde will participate in the panel on climate change organised by Mike Bloomberg at 14:30GMT.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
3,779
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74
Hong Kong
www.acetraderfx.com
AceTraderFx Apr 23: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 23 Apr 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 107.90
Despite dollar's resumption of decline from March's 1-year peak at 110.96 to a fresh 6-week bottom of 107.82 in early European morning yesterday, subsequent bounce in tandem with recovery in US yields suggests temporary low is possibly made and above 108.54/62 would bring stronger retracement to 108.80/85 but 109.09 should hold today, yield retreat.

On the downside, below 107.82 would risk marginal weakness to 107.77 before prospect of rebound due to loss of momentum.

Data to be released on Friday :
U.K. Gfk consumer confidence, PSNB GBP, PSNCR GBP, retail sales, markit manufacturing PMI, markit services PMI, France markit manufacturing PMI, markit services PMI, consumer confidence, Germany markit manufacturing PMI, markit services PMI, EU markit manufacturing PMI, markit services PMI.
U.S. building permits, markit manufacturing PMI, markit services PMI, new homes sales.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
3,779
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74
Hong Kong
www.acetraderfx.com
AceTraderFx Apr 26: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 26 Apr 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2093
Euro's break of last Tuesday's 1.2079 top to a 7-week peak of 1.2099 Fri on renewed usd's weakness suggests recent upmove has once again resumed and would re-test 1.2112 (Mar peak), overbought condition is likely to cap price at 1.2155/65.

On the downside, only below 1.2047 (New York low) signals temporary top is in place, then risk is seen for stronger retracement to 1.1994/94 later this week.

Pay attention to release of a slew of key German Ifo data n in particular the business climate for Apr, street forecast is 97.7 vs prev. reading of 96.6, a stronger-than-expected reading would trigger more euro buying. ECB member Panneta will speak at 12:00GMT n then ECB Chief Economist Lane will soeak at 13:00GMT.