AceTraderFx : Daily Recommendations on Major

AceTRaderForex

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Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx Mar 24: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 24 Mar 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 108.66
The greenback's gap-down open to 108.53 in New Zealand on Monday on risk-averse buying in jpy due to a selloff in Turkish lira and then fall to 108.41 yesterday suggests recent upmove has made a temporary top at March's 9-month peak at 109.36 last week and consolidation with downside bias remains for stronger retracement to 108.35, however, support at 108.10 should remain intact and yield rebound later.

On the upside, only above 109.12 would indicate aforesaid correction has ended instead and risk re-test of said resistance later this week.

Data to be released on Wednesday :
New Zealand trade balance, exports, imports, Japan BoJ Mon. Pol. Meeting Minutes, Jibun Banking Mfg PMI, CPI, RPI, PPI input prices, PPI output prices.
EU markit manufacturing PMI, markit services PMI, consumer confidence, France consumer spending, markit manufacturing PMI, markit services PMI, Germany markit manufacturing PMI, markit services PMI, U.K. markit manufacturing PMI, markit services PMI, DCLG house price index.
U.S. MBA mortgage app, durable goods, durables ex-transport, durables ex-defence, markit manufacturing PMI, markit servi
 

AceTRaderForex

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Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx Mar 25: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 25 Mar 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1812
Euro's break of previous March's 1.1836 low to a 4-month trough of 1.1813 (Europe) Wednesday, then intra-day brief break there suggests medium-term decline from 2021 peak at 1.2349 (January) would pressure price below 1.1800 handle, however, near term loss of downward momentum is expected to keep euro above daily sup at 1.1746 and risk has increased for a correction to take place later.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.1850 signals temporary bottom is in place and yields stronger retracement to 1.1870/75, break, 1.1910/20 before prospect of another fall next week.

On the eco. front, the only eco. data due out is France's business climate. There is European Council meeting today n a number of ECB officials are scheduled to speak (pls refer to our EI page for details. ECB President Lagarde will deliver to pre-recorded video messages for a presentation on central bank innovation held during the BIS Innovation Summit 2021.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx Mar 25: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 25 Mar 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 109.10
Despite the greenback's fall to 108.41 on Tuesday, subsequent strong rebound to 108.95 yesterday on usd's strength due to jump in U.S. yields and intra-day break above there suggests correction from March's 9-month bottom at 109.36 has ended there and consolidation with upside bias would be seen, however, aforesaid top may hold on first testing and yield retreat later today.

On the downside, only below 108.67 would dampen daily bullishness and risk weakness to 108.35/41 later.

Data to be released on Thursday :
Germany GfK consumer sentiment, France business climate, Swiss SNB interest rate decision, Italy trade balance non-EU,U.S. initial jobless claims, cont. jobless claims, GDP final, GDP deflator final, PCE prices final, PCE prices final, KC Fed manufacturing.
 

AceTRaderForex

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Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx Mar 26: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 26 Mar 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1774
Yesterday's resumption of recent downtrend to a fresh 4-month low at 1.1762 (New York) suggests euro would remain under pressure and yield further weakness after initial consolidation, however, oversold condition is likely to keep price above 1.1710/15 and risk has increased for a minor correction to occur later today or Monday.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.1827 (Thursday high) signals temporary bottom is made and yields stronger retracement to 1.1850 but reckon 1.1870/75 should cap upside.

The euro area countries will release a slew of eco. data in European morning, pay attention to key German Ifo business climate, street forecast for Mar is 93.2 vs prev. reading of 92.4, a lower than expected reading will triffer renewed euro selling.
The European Council will hold a meeting today n ECB President Lagarde will participate in the Euro Summit.
 

AceTRaderForex

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Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx Mar 26: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 26 Mar 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 109.45
Dollar's intra-day break of previous March's 9-month high at 109.36 confirms upmove from January's 9-1/2 month trough at 102.60 has once again resumed and gain to 109.80/84 would be seen after consolidation, however, loss of moment should cap price below 110.00 today.

On the downside, only below 108.95 indicates temporary top is in place and risks weakness to 108.67, break, 108.41/46.

Data to be released on Friday :
Japan Tokyo CPI.
U.K. retail sales, retail sales ex-fuel, Germany Ifo business climate, Ifo current conditions, Ifo expectations, Italy business confidence, consumer confidence.
U.S. trade balance, wholesale inventories, personal income, personal spending, PCE price index, U. Mich. sentiment, Canada budget balance.
 

AceTRaderForex

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Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx Mar 29: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 29 Mar 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1785
Although euro's rebound to 1.1804 (New York) on Friday due to broad-based usd's retreat suggests recent downtrend has made a temporary low at Thursday's 4-month trough at 1.1762 and consolidation is in store, reckon upside would falter well below 1.1850 and yield decline later today or tomorrow.

A firm break of 1.1773 would signal recovery has ended and head towards minor daily sup at 1.1746, 'loss of momentum' should keep price above 1.1710/15.

Data to be released today:
U.S. Dallas Fed mfg business index on Monday.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx Mar 29: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 29 Mar 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 109.66
Although price has retreated after dollar's resumption of upmove from January's 9-1/2 month bottom at 102.60 to a fresh 9-month peak at 109.84 and minor consolidation would be seen before said uptrend heads to 110.10/15 later today, loss of momentum would prevent sharp move beyond and reckon 110.47/50 would limit upside and yield correction.

On the downside, only below 109.14 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement to 108.67/70 before prospect of rebound.

U.S. eco. calendar is very thin today with Dallas Fed mfg business index for Mar being the only data due out at 15:30GMT.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx Mar 30: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 30 Mar 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1768
Euro's intra-day brief break of last Thursday's 1.1762 low to a fresh 4-month trough of 1.1761 (New York) signals medium-term erratic downtrend from 1.2349 (Jan) has resumed and expect minor consolidation before prospect of further decline, loss of downward momentum would limit weakness to 1.1700/10.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.1804 signals temporary low is in place and risk stronger recovery, however, reckon res at 1.1850 would cap upside.

Data to be released on Tuesday :
New Zealand building permit, Japan unemployment, retail sales.
Italy consumer confidence, Swiss KOF indicator, France producer prices, EU economic sentiment, industrial sentiment, services sentiment, consumer confidence, business climate, Germany CPI, HCIP.
Canada average weekly earnings, U.S. redbook, monthly home price, CS home price, consumer confidence.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
3,668
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AceTraderFx Mar 30: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 30 Mar 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 110.24
The greenback's intra-day rise above last Friday's 9-month peak at 109.84 on usd's continued strength suggests MT upmove from January's 9-1/2 month bottom at 102.60 remains in progress and further gain to 110.70 would be seen after consolidation, however, over bought condition would keep price below psychological handle at 111.00 and bring a much-needed correction.

On the downside, only a daily close below 109.38 would indicate at temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement to 108.95/00.

Later today, U.S. will release a slew of eco. data including consumer confidence (please refer to our EI page for details).
We also have several Fed officials scheduled to speak in New York morning and afternoon sessions.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx Mar 31: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 31 Mar 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1723
Euro's anticipated resumption of recent downtrend from 2021 peak at 1.2349 (Jan) to a fresh 4-1/2 month trough of 1.1712 in New York yesterday due to continued usd's strength on the back of rising U.S. yields should pressure price after consolidation, loss of near term downward momentum would limit weakness to 1.1660/65.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.1761 signals temporary low is made and yields stronger retracement of said decline, however, reckon 1.1800/10 should cap upside.

Data to be released on Wednesday :
Japan industrial output, construction orders, housing starts, New Zealand NBNZ business outlook, NBNZ own activity, building permits, China NBS non-mfg PMI, NBS mfg PMI.
Germany import prices, unemployment change, unemployment rate, U.K. GDP, nationwide house price, France consumer spending, CPI, producer prices, Swiss investor sentiment, EU HCIP, Italy CPI.
U.S. MBA mortgage app, ADP employment change, Chicago PMI, pending home sales, Canada GDP, producer prices.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
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74
Hong Kong
www.acetraderfx.com
AceTraderFx Mar 31: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 31 Mar 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 110.60
The greenback's intra-day rise above Tuesday's 1-year peak at 110.42 to 110.96 on usd's continued strength suggests Medium Term upmove from January's 9-1/2 month bottom at 102.60 remains in progress and further gain to 111.15/20 would be seen after consolidation, however, over bought condition would keep price below 111.40/50 and bring a much-needed correction.

On the downside, only a daily close below 109.38 would indicate at temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement to 108.95/00.

Data to be released later :
Germany import prices, unemployment change, unemployment rate, U.K. GDP, nationwide house price, France consumer spending, CPI, producer prices, Swiss investor sentiment, EU HCIP, Italy CP.
U.S. MBA mortgage app, ADP employment change, Chicago PMI, pending home sales, Canada GDP, producer prices.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx Apr 01: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 01 Apr 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1723
Despite resumption of recent decline to a fresh 4-1/ 2 month trough of 1.1705 (Asia) yesterday, subsequent bounce to 1.1759 in New York suggests temporary low is possibly made and subsequent retreat would bring range trading before one morel rise, reckon res at 1.1804 should cap upside and bring another fall.

Only below 1.1705 extends marginal weakness, however, loss of downward momentum should keep euro above 1.1662 and risk has increased for a correction to take place ahead of Friday's U.S. jobs report.

The euro area countries will release a slew of eco. data, pls refer to our EI page for details. Today is PMI day, pay attention to Germany's retails sales n then PMI data from Germany and the EU.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
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74
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AceTraderFx Apr 01: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 01 Apr 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 110.73
The greenback's rise above Tuesday's 1-year peak at 110.42 to 110.96 yesterday on usd's continued strength suggests MT upmove from January's 9-1/2 month bottom at 102.60 remains in progress and further gain to 111.15/20 would be seen after consolidation, however, over bought condition would keep price below 111.40/50 and bring a much-needed correction.

On the downside, only a daily close below 109.84 would indicate at temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement to 109.35/40.

Data to be released on Thursday :
Australia AIG manufacturing index, retail sales, trade balance AUD, imports, exports, Japan Tankan big manufacturing index, Tankan small manufacturing index, Jibun Bank manufacturing PMI, China Caixin manufacturing PMI.
Germany retail sales, Markit manufacturing PMI, Swiss CPI, retail sales, manufacturing PMI, Italy Markit manufacturing PMI, France Markit manufacturing PMI, EU Markit manufacturing PMI, U.K. Markit manufacturing PMI.
U.S. initial jobless claims, cont. jobless claims, Markit manufacturing PMI, construction spending, ISM manufacturing PMI, Canada building permits, Markit manufacturing PMI.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
3,668
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74
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AceTraderFx Apr 01: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 07 Apr 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1871
Euro's rally yesterday above Mon's 1.1819 high to a near 2-week top of 1.1877 due to continued usd's weakness on falling U.S. yields suggests upmove from last Wednesday's 4-1/2 month trough at 1.1705 remains in progress and would extend marginal gain, overbought condition should cap price at 1.1947 and risk has increased for a strong retracement of said rise.

On the downside, below 1.1819 signal at least the 1st leg of correction over and heads back to 1.1786/96.

Data to be released on Wednesday :
Australia AIG construction index, Markit services PMI, Japan coincident index, leading indicator.
Italy Markit services PMI, France Markit services PMI, Germany Markit services PMI, EU Markit services PMI, UK Markit services PMI.
U.S. MBA mortgage applications, trade balance, and Canada trade balance, exports, imports, Ivey PMI.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
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74
Hong Kong
www.acetraderfx.com
AceTraderFx Apr 07: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 07 Apr 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 109.93
Although dollar's retreat in tandem with US Treasury yields from last Wednesday's 1-year peak at 110.96 to 109.59 today suggests upmove from January's 9-1/2 month 102.60 bottom has made a temporary top, reckon near term loss of momentum would keep price above support at 109.38 and yield a much-needed rebound later this week.

On the upside, only above Tuesday's high at 110.55 would indicate aforesaid pullback has ended instead and turn outlook bullish for a re-test of aforesaid peak.

On the calendar front, we have some Fed officials due to speak later in New York session, please refer to our EI page for more details. Also, FOMC meeting minutes will be released at 18:00 GMT.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
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74
Hong Kong
www.acetraderfx.com
AceTraderFx Apr 08: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 08 Apr 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1870
Despite resumption of recent upmove from March's 4-1/2 month trough at 1.1705 to a 2-week high of 1.1914 (New York) yesterday, loss of upward momentum should cap euro's upside below res at 1.1947 and yield decline later today.

A daily close below 1.1850 would be the 1st signal said corrective rise has made a top, then risk would shift to downside for weakness to 1.1776/86 tomorrow or early next week.

Data to be released on Thursday:
Japan current account, trade balance, consumer confidence.
Germany industrial orders, France imports, exports, current account, trade balance, UK RICS housing price, construction PMI, EU producer prices.
U.S. initial jobless claims, continuing jobless claims.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
3,668
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74
Hong Kong
www.acetraderfx.com
AceTraderFx Apr 08: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 08 Apr 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 109.51
Although dollar's intra-day break below yesterday's low at 109.59 signals decline from March's 1-year peak at 110.96 remains in progress and marginal weakness from here is likely to be seen, reckon 109.30/35 would contain downside due to near term loss of momentum and bring a much-needed rebound later, above 109.95/00 would retain bullishness for gain to 110.15.

On the downside, only below 109.10/15 would risk one more fall to 108.90/95 before prospect of a rebound later.

On the data front, U.S. will release weekly jobless claims data with street forecast at 680k versus prior readings of 719k. We also have a few Fed officials due to speak with focus on Federal Reserve Chairman J. Powell scheduled to speak at 16:00 GMT in virtual International Monetary Fund Seminar.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
3,668
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74
Hong Kong
www.acetraderfx.com
AceTraderFx Apr 09: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 09 Apr 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1906
Euro's resumption of upmove from March's 4-1/2 month trough at 1.1705 to a fresh 2-week high of 1.1927 in New York yesterday on usd's weakness suggests stronger retracement to 1.1947 would be seen after consolidation, however, loss of upward momentum should cap price below 1.1988/90 today.

On the downside, only below 1.1861/66 would risk weakness to 1.1819/21 but 1.1786/96 may hold.

The euro area countries will release a slew of eco. data, please refer to our EI page for details.
Pay attention to German indutrial outout at European open. ECB President n ECB board member Panetta will participate in the IMF/World Bank Spring meeting.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
3,668
7
74
Hong Kong
www.acetraderfx.com
AceTraderFx Apr 09: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 09 Apr 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 109.52
Despite the greenback's erratic decline from March's 1-year peak at 110.96 to a 2-week bottom at 109.01 yesterday in tandem with falling U.S. yields, subsequent rebound suggests a temporary low has possibly been made and consolidation with upside bias remains for stronger retracement to 109.94/97, however, 110.38 (previous support) should remain intact and yield retreat early next week.

On the downside, only below 109.01 would revive bearishness for one more fall to 108.67/70 before prospect of correction due to loss of momentum.

Data to be released on Friday:
Swiss unemployment, Germany industrial output, exports, imports, trade balance, current account, France industrial output, UK house prices, Italy retail sales.
Canada employment change, unemployment rate, U.S. PPI, wholesale inventory and wholesale sales.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
3,668
7
74
Hong Kong
www.acetraderfx.com
AceTraderFx Apr 12: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 12 Apr 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1898
Euro's choppy swings from last Thursday's 2-week high at 1.1927 may continue and as long as near term good sup at 1.1861 holds, corrective rise from Mar's 1.1705 low may extend marginal gain, however, loss of upward momentum should cap price below 1.1990 and yield decline later.

A daily close below 1.1861 signals top is made and yields weakness to 1.1819/21, then 1.1786/96

Data to be released today:
Japan corporate goods price, machinery orders.
EU retail sales, U.S. Federal Budget on Monday.