AceTraderFx : Daily Recommendations on Major

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx May 10: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 10 May 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 108.93
The greenback's selloff from 109.28 to as low as 108.35 at New York open on Friday on the release of poor U.S. jobs report suggests upmove from April's 6-week bottom at 107.49 has made a temporary top at 109.69 last Monday and consolidation with downside bias remains and weakness to 108.60/65 is likely, however, 108.47/50 should remain intact and yield rebound later this week.

On the upside, only above 109.15 would indicate aforesaid correction has ended instead and bring gain to 109.48, then 109.69 again.

Data to be released today:
Australia NAB business conditions, NAB business confidence, retail sales.
U.K. Halifax house prices, EU Sentix index.
Canada leading index on Monday.
 

AceTRaderForex

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Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx May 11: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 11 May 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2140
Although euro's intra-day retreat from Mon's 10-week peak of 1.2177 to 1.2128 in New York session due to rise in U.S. yields suggests recent upmove has made a temporary top, as long as 1.2090 holds, outlook remains mildly bullish for marginal gain, loss of upward momentum should cap price well below daily pivotal res at 1.2242 and yield a long-overdue correction.

Below 1.2090 anytime confirms temporary top is in place, then risk would shift to downside for stronger retracement to 1.2054/59 before prospect of rebound later this week.

Data to be released on Tuesday:
Japan all household spending, China PPI, CPI,
U.K. BRC retail sales, Italy industrial output, Germany wholesale price index, ZEW economic sentiment, current conditions, EU ZEW survey expectation.
Canada leading index, U.S. redbook, JOLTS job openings.
 

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx May 11: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 11 May 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 108.86
The greenback's selloff from 109.28 to as low as 108.35 at New York open on Friday on the release of poor U.S. jobs report suggests upmove from April's 6-week bottom at 107.49 has made a temporary top at 109.69 last Monday and consolidation with downside bias remains and weakness to 108.60/65 is likely, however, 108.47/50 should remain intact and yield rebound later this week.

On the upside, only above 109.15 would indicate aforesaid correction has ended instead and bring gain to 109.48, then 109.69 again.

On the data front, U.S. will release some second-tier eco. indicators, however, we have 5 Fed officials schedule to speak later today, please refer to our EI page for details.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx May 12: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 12 May 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2144
Despite euro's retreat from Tuesday's fresh 10-week high of 1.2181, as long as 1.2124/28 sup holds, recent upmove would yield marginal gain after consolidation, 'loss of upward momentum' should cap price well below daily res at 1.2242 and risk has increased for a long-overdue correction to take place.

On the downside, a daily close below 1.2124 signals temporary top is in place, then outlook would turn bearish for weakness to 1.2054/58 later this week.

Data to be released on Wednesday:
New Zealand retail sales, Australia Westpac consumer sentiment, Japan coincident index, leading indicator.
Germany CPI, HICP, U.K. GDP, industrial output, manufacturing output, construction output, trade balance, NIESR GDP, France CPI, EU industrial production.
U.S. MBA mortgage, CPI, Federal budget.
 

AceTRaderForex

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AceTraderFx May 12: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 12 May 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 108.79
Although dollar's rebound from yesterday's 108.36 low suggests choppy trading above last Friday's 108.35 trough would be seen, as long as 109.05 (Monday's high) holds, downside bias remains and below said support would extend decline from May's near 3-week 109.69 peak to 108.22 (61.8% r from 107.49) but 108.08 should hold, yield another bounce.

On the upside, only above 109.05 risks gain to 109.28, break, 109.42/48 later.

U.S. will release a slew of eco. data (please refer to our EI page for details), after Friday's blockbuster U.S. jobs report, traders are keeping an eye out for CPI figures, a higher print will send U.S. yields higher and this will turn lead to usd buying n vice versa.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx May 13: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 13 May 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2078
Euro's intra-day selloff in New York session Wednesday from 1.2152 to as low as 1.2066 after volatile swings following release of upbeat U.S. inflation data suggests recent erratic rise from 1.1705 (March) has made a temporary top at Tuesday's 10-week peak at 1.2181 and downside bias remains for further weakness, oversold condition is expected to keep price well above May's bottom at 1.1987.

Only a daily close above 1.2116 signals 1st leg of correction is over and may risk gain to 1.2140/50 before prospect of another fall.

Data to be released on Thursday:
New Zealand retail sales, Australia Westpac consumer sentiment, Japan coincident index, leading indicator.
Germany CPI, HICP, U.K. GDP, industrial output, manufacturing output, construction output, trade balance, GDP, NIESR GDP, France CPI, EU industrial production.
US MBA mortgage, CPI, Federal budget.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx May 13: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 13 May 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 109.56
The greenback's rally yesterday on the release of upbeat U.S. inflation data together with jump in U.S. yields and break of May's 3-week peak at 109.69 signals erratic upmove from April's bottom at 107.49 has finally resumed and further gain to 110.20/30 would be seen after consolidation, however, loss of momentum would keep price below 110.50/60 and yield a much-needed correction later.

On the downside, only below 108.98/05 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement to 108.58, then 108.35/36.

As many European centres are closed for Ascension Day holiday, traders will look to release of U.S. eco. data later today, pay attention to weekly jobless claims, continued jobless claims as well as PPI n core PPI, all due out at 12:30GMT. We also have a number of Fed officials scheduled to speak in New York session, pls refer to our EI page for details.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx May 14: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 14 May 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2075
Although euro's rebound from yesterday's low at 1.2052 (Europe) to 1.2099 in New York due to intra-day retreat in U.S. yields suggests decline from Tuesday's 10-week peak at 1.2181 has made a temporary bottom, outlook remains bearish for further weakness after consolidation, loss of downward momentum should keep price well above daily sup at 1.1987.

Only a daily close above 1.2116 dampens bearish view and risks stronger gain to 1.2130/40 before prospect of decline next week.

Data to be released on Friday:
New Zealand manufacturing PMI, Australia consumer inflation experience.
U.S. import prices, export prices, retail sales, industrial production, capacity utilization, manufacturing output, business inventories, U. Mich. sentiment, Canada manufacturing sales, wholesales trade.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx May 14: AceTraderFx May 14: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 14 May 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 109.28
Despite the greenback's rally on Wednesday on the release of upbeat U.S. inflation data to a 1-month peak at 109.78 yesterday, intra-day retreat suggests the upmove from March's bottom at 107.49 has possibly made a temporary top there and choppy trading with downside bias would be seen, however, 108.98/05 should remain intact and yield another rebound early next week.

On the upside, only above 109.65 would revive bullishness for a re-test of said resistance, break would head to 110.05/10 before prospect of correction.

T.G.I.F., however, U.S. will later release a slew eco. data (pls refer to our EI page for details) which are expected to move the buck. Plesse pay attention to retail sales, industrial production n later University of Michigan consumer confidence, a higher-than-expected reading on these data vs forecast will give usd a boost. Dallas Fed President Kaplan (non-voter) will speak at 17:00GMT.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx May 17: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 17 May 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2150
Fri's rally from 1.2072 to 1.2147 on renewed usd's weakness due to soft U.S. data and yields suggests pullback from last Tuesday's fresh 10-week peak at 1.2181 has possibly ended, above 1.2152 would bring re-test of said May's high, overbought condition should cap price below 1.2242 (Feb high).

On the downside, only below 1.2104/07 sup 'prolongs' choppy swings below 1.2181 and risks weakness to 1.2072 but reckon 1.2052 should hold.

Data to be released next week :
China house prices, industrial output, retail sales,
U.K. rightmove house price, Japan corporation goods price, machinery orders, Swiss producer/import price, Italy CPI.
Canada housing starts, U.S. New York Fed manufacturing, NAHB housing market index on Monday.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx May 17: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 17 May 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 109.28
Despite the greenback's rally last Wednesday on the release of upbeat U.S. inflation data to a 1-month peak at 109.78 Thursday, subsequent retreat on weak US retail sales data Friday suggests the upmove from March's bottom at 107.49 has possibly made a temporary top there and choppy trading with downside bias would be seen, however, 108.98/05 should remain intact and yield another rebound.

On the upside, only above 109.65 would revive bullishness for a re-test of said resistance, break would head to 110.05/10 before prospect of correction.

On the data front, U.S. will later release New York fed mfg index n then NAHB housing market index.
Fed's Vice Chairman Clarida will speak at a financial forum at 14:05GMT.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx May 18: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 18 May 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2155
Euro's gain to 1.2168 (Europe) on Monday suggests pullback from last Tuesday's 10-week high at 1.2181 has ended last week at 1.2052 (Thursday) and as long as 1.2104/07 holds, upside bias remains for recent upmove from 1.1705 (Mar low) to extend marginal gain, 'loss of upward momentum' should cap price well below daily pivotal res at 1.2242.

Below 1.2104 signals top is made, then risk would shift to the downside for stronger retracement to 1.2072, then 1.2052 later.

Data to be released on Tuesday:
Japan GDP, Tertiary industry activities, New Zealand GDT price index
U.K. claimant count, ILO unemployment rate, employment change, average weekly earnings, Italy trade balance, EU employment change, trade balance, GDP.
U.S. building permits, housing starts, redbook.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
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74
Hong Kong
www.acetraderfx.com
AceTraderFx May 18: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 18 May 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 108.88
Despite the greenback's rally last Wednesday on the release of upbeat U.S. inflation data to a 1-month peak at 109.78 Thursday, subsequent retreat on weak US retail sales data Friday suggests the upmove from March's bottom at 107.49 has possibly made a temporary top there and choppy trading with downside bias would be seen, however, 108.98/05 should remain intact and yield another rebound.

On the upside, only above 109.65 would revive bullishness for a re-test of said resistance, break would head to 110.05/10 before prospect of correction.

On the data front, U.S. will release 2nd-tier eco. data (pls refer to our EI page for details), however, we have Atlanta Fed President Bostic (voter) n Dallas Fed President Kaplan (non-voter) speaking in New York session ahead of release of Wednesday's Fed minutes.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx May 20: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 20 May 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2179
Euro's intra-day selloff in New York morning from 1.2238 to as low as 1.2161 due to broad-based usd's rally in tandem with U.S. yields following release of Fed's minutes signals recent upmove has made a temporary top at Wednesday's 4-1/2 month peak at 1.2245 and a long-awaited correction has taken place.

Expect price to resume said decline after consolidation but near term oversold condition may limit weakness to 1.2104/07 and only above 1.2200/10 dampens bearishness, risks 1.2233/38.

The euro area countries will release a slew of 2nd-tier eco. data (pls refer to our EI page for details). We have ECB Chief Economist Lane speaking at 08:00GMT, then ECB Preseident Lagards will speak at 12:00GMT.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx May 20: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 20 May 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 108.96
Despite the dollar's selloff from 109.33 to as low as 108.58 yesterday, subsequent strong rebound to 109.30 in Asia today due to rising U.S. yields following the release of hawkish FOMC minutes suggests near term decline from last week's 1-month peak at 109.78 has made a temporary low there and consolidation with upside bias remains for gain to 109.50, however, said top would hold on first testing.

On the downside, only below 108.58 would revive bearishness for stronger retracement of rise from 107.48 (April) to 108.35/36.

Data to be released on Thursday:
Japan Machinery orders, exports, imports, trade balance, Australia employment change, unemployment change.
Germany producer prices, EU construction output, current account, U.K. CBI trends orders.
U.S. initial jobless claims, continuous jobless claims, Philly Fed Manufacturing index, leading index change, Canada ADP employment change, new housing price index.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
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AceTraderFx May 21: May 21: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 21 May 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2225
As euro has risen again yesterday's due to renewed risk sentiment on falling U.S. yields after strong retreat from Wednesday's 4-1/2 month peak at 1.2245 to 1.2161, above said res would extend recent upmove marginally, however, loss of upward momentum should cap price below daily res at 1.2309.

On the downside, below 1.2180 signals intra-day top is in place and heads back to 1.2161, break there needed to revive bearishness for stronger correction towards 1.2127 early next week.

Today is PMI day, France will kick off with Markit manufacturing and service PMI at 07:15 GMT, followed by Germany at 07:30 GMT and then EZ at 08:00 GMT. Market forecast for EZ are 62.5 and 52.3 for manufacturing PMI and services PMI respectively, versus prior readings of 62.9 and 50.5.
We also have ECB President Christine Lagarde scheduled to speak at 11:00 GMT in Eurogroup and informal ECONFIN meetings in Lisbon, Portugal, which would be followed by a press conference.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
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74
Hong Kong
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AceTraderFx May 21: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 21 May 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 108.65
Despite dollar's strong rebound on Wednesday from 108.58 to 109.30 in Australia yesterday due to hawkish Fed minutes, subsequent fall to 108.76, then intra-day break there suggests decline from May's 1-month 109.78 peak would resume and extend marginally, however, oversold condition should prevent steep fall below 108.35/36 and yield another bounce.

On the upside, above 108.89 (Asia) would risk stronger retracement to 109.05/10 but 109.30/33 should cap upside.

Data to be released on Friday:
Australia manufacturing PMI, services PMI.

U.K. Gfk consumer confidence, retail sales, Japan nationwide CPI, Jibun bank manufacturing PMI, U.K. retail sales, Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, Swiss industrial production, France Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, Germany Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, Italy Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, EU Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, consumer confidence.

Canada retail sales, U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, existing home sale.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
3,779
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74
Hong Kong
www.acetraderfx.com
AceTraderFx May 24: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

flag_eur.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 24 May 2021 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2180
Euro's decline from 1.2239 (Asia) to 1.2162 Fri after upbeat U.S. PMI data suggests choppy trading below Wednesday's 4-1/2 month peak at 1.2245 would continuous with downside bias, a firm break of 1.2161 (reaction low) would signal a long-overdue correction of recent upmove has taken place, however, reckon 1.2104/07 would contain weakness.

Only above 1.2210/15 prolongs volatile sideways swings and may risk another rise back to 1.2240/45 but loss of upward momentum should cap price at 1.2270/80.

No eco. data is due out today, however, we have ECB board member McCaul speaking at a conference at 13:00GMT.
 

AceTRaderForex

Master Trader
Mar 19, 2013
3,779
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74
Hong Kong
www.acetraderfx.com
AceTraderFx May 24: Daily Recommendations on Major –USD/JPY

flag_yen.gif DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major

Update Time: 24 May 2021 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 108.76
Despite dollar's strong rebound from 108.58 last Wednesday to 109.30 on Thursday due to hawkish Fed minutes, subsequent fall to 108.61 on Friday there suggests decline from May's 1-month 109.78 peak would resume and extend marginally, however, oversold condition should prevent steep fall below 108.35/36 and yield another bounce.

On the upside, above 108.89 (Asia) would risk stronger retracement to 109.05/10 but 109.30/33 should cap upside.

Data to be released next week :
New Zealand retail sales on Monday.
Market holidays in Germany, France and Switzerland.