AceTraderFx : Daily Recommendations on Major

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Apr 08: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 08 Apr 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.0878
Although euro's recent sharp fall from 1.1147 to as low as 1.0769 on Monday suggests early correction from March's near 3-year bottom at 1.0637 has ended, yesterday's rally above 1.0834 (Monday high, now sup) to 1.0926 due to broad-based usd's weakness on return of risk sentiment suggests temporary low has been made and 1-2 days of consolidation with upside bias is seen.

Expect 1.1000 to cap present rebound and yield subsequent retreat. A daily close below 1.0834 would indicate correction has ended, then price would head back towards 1.0769 later this week.

Data to be released on Wednesday :
Japan current account, trade balance, machinery orders, economy watchers current, economy watchers outlook.
Canada leading index, housing starts, building permits, and U.S. MBA mortgage applications, FOMC minutes.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Apr 08: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 08 Apr 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 108.81
Dollar's rally from last Wed's near 2-week bottom at 106.93 to 109.37 on Monday suggests decline from March's 1-month peak at 111.71 has made a temporary low and as price has rebounded after weakening to 108.51 in Asia today, consolidation with upside bias remains for gain to 109.70/71 before prospect of retreat.

On the downside, only below 108.44/51 would risk stronger retracement to 108.18/21.

ON the data front, although the only data due out from the U.S. is MBA mortgage applications, pay attention to release of FOMC minutes which may shed some more light on last month's emergency meeting and rate cut in the aftermath of COVID-19 pandemic which hit U.S. economy and sent millions out of work abruptly.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Apr 09: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 09 Apr 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.0863
Euro's rally from this week's 1.0769 low (Tuesday) to 1.0926 on Tuesday suggests recent decline from 1.1147 has made a temporary low and as price has rebounded after intra-day brief but strong retreat to 1.0831 in Europe, upside bias remains for marginal gain after consolidation, loss of upward momentum should limit upside to 1.0958 (50% r from 1.1147).

Only a daily close below 1.0831 suggests recovery has ended instead, then risk would shift to downside for weakness to 1.0800, then re-test of 1.0769 'later'.

Data to be released on Thursday :
New Zealand retail sales, Japan consumer confidence index.
UK RICS housing price balance, GDP, industrial output, manufacturing output, construction output, trade balance,Germany exports, imports, trade balance, current account, Italy industrial output.
U.S. initial jobless claims, PPI, core PPI, University of Michigan sentiment, wholesale inventories, wholesale sales, and Canada employment change, unemployment rate.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Apr 09: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 09 Apr 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 108.92
Although dollar's retreat from this week's high at 109.37 (Monday) to 108.51 yesterday suggests near term upmove from April's 106.93 low has made a temporary top, subsequent rebound to 109.09 on Wednesday would bring choppy sideways swings before extending gain to 109.67/71, reckon 110.09 should hold.

On the downside, only below 108.51 would risk stronger retracement to 108.18/20.

Thank God its Thursday as tomorrow is Easter Friday and then Easter Monday, a long holiday weekend for many centres. However, European n North American traders will await release of U.S. weekly jobless claims following last week's blowout reading of 6.648 million of first time unemployment claims, street forecast ranges from 2.5-7.5 million, a reading closer to the upper range may lead to safe-haven usd buying.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Apr 14: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 14 Apr 2020 03:30GMT


EUR/USD - 1.0924
Despite resumption of upmove from last week's 1.0769 trough to retrace early decline from 1.1147 to an 11-day high of 1.0967 in holiday-thin Asia, subsequent weakness due to broad-based euro selling suggests top is possibly made and consolidation with downside bias is seen, however, reckon sup at 1.0831 would hold from here.

Only above 1.0967 risks marginal gain but loss of upward momentum should cap price below 1.1000 and yield decline.

Data to be released on Tuesday :
Australia NAB business conditions, NAB business confidence, China exports, imports, trade balance and U.S. import prices, exports, redbook.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Apr 14: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 14 Apr 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 107.68
Despite dollar's resumption of upmove from April's 106.93 low to 109.37 last Monday, subsequent retreat to 108.22 Thursday, then yesterday's selloff to 107.51 suggests correction has ended and re-test of 106.93 would be seen after consolidation, break would extend decline from March's 111.71 peak towards 106.76 before prospect of rebound.

On the upside, only above 108.22 would prolong choppy trading and risks retracement to 108.51/52.

No eco. data is due out from the euro area countries. We have ECB President Lagarde n ECB's Panetta participating G& FinMin and cenbank governors meeting in Germany via video conference later in the day.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Apr 15: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 15 Apr 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.0986
Yesterday's resumption of upmove from April's 1.0769 low to a near 2-week high of 1.0987 in New York due to continued usd's weakness suggests said move would head to 1.1000/10 after consolidation, however, overbought condition would cap price below 1.1039 and yield a much-needed correction.

On the downside, below 1.0948 would signal temporary top is made and bring retracement to 1.0916, then later towards 1.0893.

Data to be released on Wednesday :
New Zealand food price index, Australia consumer sentiment.
France CPI (EU norm), CPI, Italy consumer prices, CPI (EU norm).
U.S. MBA mortgage applications, New York Fed manufacturing index, retail sales ex-autos, retail sales, industrial production, capital utilization, manufacturing output, business inventories, NAHB housing market index, and Canada BoC interest rate decision.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Apr 15: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 15 Apr 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 107.37
Despite dollar's resumption of decline from last Monday's 109.37 to 106.94 in Asia today, subsequent rebound in Europe on renewed usd's strength suggests choppy trading above April's 106.93 bottom would continue and stronger retracement to 107.70/75 is likely before prospect of another fall, below 106.93 needed to extend downtrend from March's 111.71 peak to 106.45/50, which should hold on 1st testing.

On the upside, only above 108.00/10 would risk gain to 108.51/52.

U.S. will release a slew of eco. data later today, please refer to our EI section for details. Also, Atlanta Fed President Bostic is scheduled to speak at 17:00GMT.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Apr 16: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 16 Apr 2020 03:30GMT


EUR/USD - 1.0886
Yesterday's intra-day fall from a near 2-week high of 1.0991 (AUS) to as low as 1.0857 in New York morning due to renewed usd's strength on risk aversion suggests early erratic rise from April's 1.0769 bottom has ended, despite subsequent short-covering rebound to 1.0939 after downbeat U.S. eco. data, present weakness in Asia has retained bearishness, below 1.0857 would encourage for weakness towards 1.0831.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.0939 dampens bearish view and may risk another rise to 1.0967, however, reckon 1.0987/91 res would remain intact and yield further choppy swings.

Data to be released on Thursday :
UK BRC retail sales, China house price index, Australia employment change, unemployment rate, Germany CPI, HICP, wholesale price index, Swiss producer/import price index, EU industrial production.
U.S. building permits, housing starts, initial jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, and Canada manufacturing sales.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Apr 16: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 16 Apr 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 107.76
Despite yesterday's brief drop to 106.94 in Asia, subsequent rally to 107.86 in New York on usd's strength, then 108.08 today suggests further choppy trading above April's near 2-week bottom at 106.93 would continue and intra-day retreat would bring choppy sideways swings before heading to 108.55/61, however, reckon 108.75/80 should cap upside.

On the downside, only below 107.26/36 would indicate recovery has ended, risks 106.94.

U.S. will release a slew of eco. data later today but market's main focus is weekly jobless claims which may show another blow out number after last week's increase of 6.606 million people filed for jobless claims.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Apr 17: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 17 Apr 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.0860
Euro's 'erratic' fall from Wed's near 2-week peak of 1.0991 to 1.0817 yesterday due to broad-based usd buying on risk-off trade suggests early rise from Apr's 1.0769 low has ended there and consolidation with downside bias remains for a re-test of said temporary low next week.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.0905 dampens present bearish scenario and risks stronger gain towards 1.0938, break, 1.0967.

The euro area will release a slew of eco. data, pls refer to our Eco. Indicator page for details.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Apr 17: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 17 Apr 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 107.87
Despite dollar's rebound from yesterday's 107.17 (New York) low and then re-test of Thursaday's 108.08 high, intra-day retreat on falling U.S. Treasury yields suggests choppy sideways swings would be seen, however, reckon said sup would remain intact and yield another rise, above 108.08 would head to 108.22 but 108.59/61 should remain intact.

On the downside, only below 107.17 would risk weakness to 106.94 (Wednesday's bottom).

Data to be released later:
Italy trade balance, global trade balance, EU construction output, HICP, core HICP.
U.S. leading index

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Apr 20: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 20 Apr 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.0864
Despite euro's decline from last Wed's near 2-week high of 1.0991 (AUS) to 1.0813 on Friday, subsequent rebound to 1.0892 in New York suggests temporary low has been made and choppy sideways swings are in store, reckon 1.0905/15 would cap recovery and yield another fall.

Below 1.0813 would encourage for weakness towards Apr's low at 1.0769 later this week. Only above 1.0939 aborts bearishness and may risk gain towards 1.0991.

Data to be released today:
New Zealand CPI, UK Rightmove house price, Japan exports, imports, trade balance.
Germany producer prices, EU current account, trade balance, nation activity index.
Canada wholesale trade on Monday.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Apr 20: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 20 Apr 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 107.76
Although dollar's strong bounce from last Wednesday's 106.94 low to 108.08 Thursday suggests recent decline from 109.37 (April) has made a temporary low, subsequent retreat to 107.17 and then rebound to 108.08 again on Friday suggests choppy sideways swings would continue before re-test of April's 106.93 bottom, break would extend fall from March's 111.71 peak to 106.76, then 106.46.

On the upside, only above 108.08 would risk stronger gain to 108.59/61.

Data to be released later today:
Germany producer prices, EU current account, trade balance, nation activity index.
Canada wholesale trade on Monday.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Apr 21: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 21 Apr 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.0858
Despite Monday's intra-day rise from 1.0842 to 1.0896 in European morning, subsequent choppy swings in New York session suggests recovery from last Friday's 9-day trough at 1.0813 has possibly ended and decline from April's 1.0991 would head to 1.0785/90 after consolidation, however, loss of downward momentum should keep price above 1.0769.

Only a daily close above 1.0896 risks stronger retracement of said fall to 1.0935/39 before prospect of another fall later this week.

Data to be released on Tuesday :
UK claimant count, ILO unemployment rate, employment change, average weekly earnings, Swiss trade balance, exports, imports, Germany ZEW economic sentiment, ZEW current conditions, EU ZEW economic sentiment.
Canada retail sales, retail sales ex-autos, U.S. redbook, existing home sales and New Zealand GDT price index.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Apr 21: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 21 Apr 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 107.40
Despite dollar's rebound to 107.94 yesterday, subsequent retreat suggests recovery from last Wednesday's low at 106.94 has ended at 108.08 last Thursday and consolidation with downside bias would be seen, below 107.17 would confirm this view and bring re-test April's trough at 106.93, break would extend downtrend from March's peak 111.67 towards 106.40/50 before prospect of correction.

On the upside, only above 108.08 would indicate a temporary bottom has been made and risk stronger retracement to 108.50/60.

On the data front, U.S. will later release Redbook sales n then existing home sales.
However, market's focus is performance of the Dow and S&P 500.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Apr 22: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 22 Apr 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.0856
Athough yesterday's intra-day brief buy strong bounce from 1.0817 to 1.0880 in New York morning suggests further choppy trading above last week's low at 1.0813 would continue, as long as 1.0896 (reaction high Monday) holds, recent fall from 1.0991 would resume after consolidation, however, loss of momentum should keep euro above Apr's low at 1.0769.

Only a daily close above 1.0905 risks stronger retracement of recent decline from 1.0991 towards 1.0939 before prospect of retreat.

Data to be released on Wednesday :
Australia Westpac leading index.
UK core CPI, CPI, RPI, core RPI, PPI input prices, PPI output prices, PPI core ouput, Italy industrial orders, industrial sales and EU consumer confidence.
U.S. MBA mortgage applications, monthly home price index, Canada CPI, core CPI,

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Apr 22: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 22 Apr 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 107.65
Although dollar's rebound from 107.29 to 107.89 in New York yesterday suggests choppy trading above April's trough of 106.93 would continue and marginal gain is likely to be seen, reckon resistance at 108.08 would limit upside and yield another fall, below 107.17 would bring re-test of 106.93 later this week.

On the upside, only above 108.08 would revive bullishness for stronger gain to 108.52, however resistance at 108.72 should remain intact and yield retreat.

U.S. eco. calendar is very light today with MBA mortgage applications (hardly worth mentioning these days), then monthly home price being the data due out later. Market will pay attention to performance in U.S. stocks after the Dow hit a 1-month high last Friday and has since fallen in last 2 consecutive sessions.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Apr 23: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 23 Apr 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.0813
Euro's intra-day selloff from 1.0885 (Europe) yesterday's and then subsequent brief break of last week's 1.0813 low to a 2-week trough of 1.0804 in New York due to renewed usd's strength suggests recent fall from 1.0991 would extend marginal weakness, loss of downward momentum is likely to keep price above April's bottom at 1.0769 and risk has increased for a correction to take place.

On the upside, a daily close above 1.0842 would be first signal temporary low is made n may bring stronger retracement to 1.0885/95.

Data to be released on Thursday :
Australia manufacturing PMI, services PMI, imports, exports, trade balance, Japan Jibun Bank manufacturing PMI, leading indicator, coincident index.
France business climate, Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, UK PSNB, PSNCR, Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, CBI trends orders, Germany Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, Italy trade balance, EU Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI.
U.S. building permits, initial jobless claims, Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, new home sales, Kansas City Fed manufacturing index.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Apr 23: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 23 Apr 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 107.60
Dollar's daily sideways swings following rebound from last Wednesday's 106.94 low to 108.08 last Thursday suggests further gyration inside said broad range would continue, however, reckon said resistance would remain intact and yield retreat but 107.17 should hold on first testing.

Only above 108.08 would risk stronger retrace of decline from April's 109.37 peak towards 108.22, break, 108.59/91 before down.

U.S. will release a slew of eco. data later today but once again, traders will focus on release of initial weekly jobless claims, street forecast is for a reading of 4.15 million vs prev. number of 5.245 million, a higher number will lead to weakness in U.S. stocks and this will, in turn, trigger safe-haven usd buying esp. vs other G7 currencies.