AceTraderFx : Daily Recommendations on Major

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx May 12: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 12 May 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.0809
Euro's decline from 1.0875 (Friday) to 1.0801 in New York yesterday's suggests recovery from last week's low at 1.0767 has ended there and consolidation with downside bias remains for re-test of this sup, break would extend early fall from May's 4-week peak at 1.1018 towards April's bottom at 1.0728 later this week.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.0850 prolongs choppy swings and risk re-test of 1.0875, however, reckon res at 1.0925 should remain intact.

Data to be released on Tuesday :
China PPI, CPI, Australia NAB business conditions, NAB business confidence, Japan coincident index, leading indicator.
Canada leading index, and U.S. core CPI, CPI, real weekly earnings, redbook, Federal budget.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx May 12: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 12 May 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 107.56
Although dollar's retreat from yesterday's 2-week high at 107.76 suggests near-term upmove from last Wednesday's 7-week low at 105.99 has made a temporary top there, intra-day rebound from 107.36 (Asia) has retained bullishness and above 107.76 would extend aforesaid rise to 108.03/08, then 108.22 but 108.50/55 should remain intact today.

On the downside, only below 107.36 would risk weakness to 107.00/05, then 106.65/70 before rebound.

On the data front, U.S. will release core CPI, CPI, real weekly earnings n Redbook sales. Normally, these inflation data are usually important, however, market's focus has now shifted to weekly jobs claims n unemployment rate due to recent unprecedented economic downturn in the wake of coronavirus pandemic.
We also have a large number of Fed officials scheduled to speak later today, please refer to our EI page for details.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx May 13: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 13 May 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.0854
Although euro's recent decline from May's 1.118 high to as low as 1.0767 last week suggests early correction from April's 1.0728 bottom has ended, subsequent bounce to 1.0875 (Friday), then yesterday's intra-day rally to 1.0884 would bring further sideways swings before prospect of another fall.

As long as 1.0925 res holds, consolidation with downside bias remains, below 1.0827 would head back to 1.0785, then towards 1.0767. Only a daily close above said res risks stronger retracement to 1.0960/70 later this week.

On the data front, the only eco. data due out from the euro area countries is EU's Mar industrial production.
We have ECB Chief Economist Lane n Vice Precicent de Guindos speaking later today (please refer to our EI page for details).

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx May 13: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 13 May 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 107.04
Despite dollar's resumption of upmove from last Wednesday's 7-week low at 105.99 to 107.76 on Monday, subsequent weakness suggests temporary top has been made and mild downside bias would be seen, however, reckon 106.88 (50% retracement) should hold and yield another rise to 108.03/08 before prospect of retreat.

On the downside, only below 106.88 would risk 106.65/67 but 106.37 should remain intact.

Data to be released on Wednesday :
UK BRC retail sales, GDP, industrial output, manufacturing output, construction output, trade balance, NIESR GDP estimate, EU industrial production.
U.S. MBA mortgage applications, PPI, core PPI.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx May 14: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 14 May 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.0823
Despite euro's 'erratic' rise from last week's trough at 1.0767 to 1.0896 in New York morning, intra-day selloff to 1.0812 due to broad-based usd's strength after Fed J. Powell rejected negative U.S. interest rates suggests correction has ended and downside bias remains for re-test of said sup after consolidation, break would extend fall from May's 1.1018 peak towards 1.0728 later.

On the upside, only above 1.0857 'prolongs' choppy sideways swings and may head back to 1.0875/85 but 1.0896 should remain intact.

Data to be released on Thursday :
Japan machine tool orders.
UK RICS housing price balance, Australia employment change, unemployment rate, France ILO unemployment rate, Germany CPI, HICP, wholesale price index, Swiss producer/import price index, Italy trade balance.
U.S. import prices, export prices, initial jobless claims, and Canada manufacturing sales.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx May 14: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 14 May 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 106.86
Dollar's fall from Monday's 107.76 high to 106.75 in New York yesterday suggests 1st leg of correction from May's 105.99 bottom has ended and as price has fallen after recovering to 107.14, stronger retracement to 106.55/60 cannot be ruled out before prospect of rebound.

On the upside, above 107.35/36 would indicate pullback has ended and head to 107.63, then 107.76.

Although J. Powell's scheduled speech Wed was market's main focus this week, traders are eagerly awaiting release of weekly U.S. jobless claims n also continuing claims to gauge the latest damage done to U.S. jobs market due to coronovirus outbreak which is expected to add another 2.5 Americans out of jobs, making a y-t-d market forecast of around 25 million people filing for unemployment benefits.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx May 15: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 15 May 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.0802
Although eur's selloff from 1.0896 (Wednesday) to as low as 1.0776 in Europe yesterday suggests correction from last week's low at 1.0767 (Thursday) has ended, subsequent recovery in New York session due to short covering would bring sideways swings before another fall, below 1.0767 would encourage for weakness towards April's bottom at 1.0728 next week.

Only a daily close above 1.0824 'prolongs' recent choppy consolidation and may risk stronger gain to 1.0875/85.

Data to be released on Friday:
New Zealand manufacturing PMI, Japan corporate goods price, China industrial output, retail sales.
Germany GDP, France CPI, CPI (EU-norm), Italy industrial orders, industrial sales, CPI, CPI (EU-norm), EU employment change, GDP.
U.S. New York Fed manufacturing, retail sales, retail sales ex-autos, industrial production, capacity utilization, JOLTS job openings, University of Michigan sentiment.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx May 15: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 15 May 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 107.06
Although dollar's rebound from Wednesday's 106.75 low to 107.43 in Asia today suggests decline from this week's high at 107.76 (Monday) has made a temporary bottom, intra-day retreat on renewed usd's weakness signals recovery has possibly ended, below 106.87 would confirm and head to 106.75, break, 10.640/45, however, reckon 106.20/23 would remain intact.

On the upside, only above 107.43 would revive bullishness for gain to 107.63, then 107.76 but 108.03/08 may hold.

Data to be released on Friday:
Germany GDP, producer prices, PPI, France CPI, CPI (EU-norm), Italy industrial orders, industrial sales, CPI, CPI (EU-norm), EU employment change, GDP, trade balance.
U.S. New York Fed manufacturing, retail sales, retail sales ex-autos, industrial production, capacity utilization, business inventories JOLTS job openings, University of Michigan sentiment on Friday.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx May 18: Daily Recommendations on Major - EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 18 May 2020 03:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.0821
Despite euro's fall from last week's high at 1.0896 (Wed) to 1.0776 on Thursday, subsequent bounce to 1.0850 suggests further volatile swings above May's 1.0767 bottom would continue.

As long as 1.0896 holds, downside bias remains for weakness towards May's 1.0767 low, break would extend early decline from 1.1018 towards 1.0728 (Apr low later this week).

Although there will be no economic data from the euro zone, we have German Buba monthly report due to release later today.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx May 18: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 18 May 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 107.16
Although dollar's retreat from last Monday's 2-week high at 107.76 to 106.75 Wednesday suggests first leg of correction from May's 7-week bottom at 105.99 has ended, subsequent rebound to 107.43 on Friday, then retreat to 106.86 would bring further choppy sideways swings before prospect of another rise, above 107.76 would head to 108.03/08.

On the downside, only below 106.75 would risk weakness to 106.51 but 106.20/23 should remain intact.

Data to be released later :
UK Righmove house price, Japan GDP, tertiary industry activity, Canada market .
U.S. NAHB housing on Monday.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx May 19: Daily Recommendations on Major - EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 19 May 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.0916
Euro's intra-day rally above last week's 1.0896 high in New York session due to risk-on trade following joint German-French announcement of a EU recovery fund to as high as 1.0926 suggests further 'gyrations' inside recent 1.1018-1.0767 broad range would continue.

As long as 1.0875/85 holds, upside bias remains, however, overbought condition should cap price at 1.0980/90. Below 1.0850 signals top is made and heads back to 1.0801/05 later.

Data to be released on Tuesday:
New Zealand PPI, GDT price, Japan industrial output, capacity utilization, UK claimant count, ILO unemployment employment change, average weekly earnings.
Germany ZEW economic sentiment, ZEW current conditions, EU construction output, ZEW survey expectation,.
U.S. building permits, housing starts, redbook and Canada new housing price index.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx May 19: Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 19 May 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 107.49
Despite dollar's retreat from last Monday's 107.76 to 106.75 Wednesday, subsequent erratic rise to 107.59 today suggests pullback has possibly ended, above 107.63 would add credence to this view and yield re-test of 107.76, where break would extend upmove from May's 7-week bottom at 105.99 to 108.22/27, however, reckon 108.52/59 would hold today.

On the downside, only below 107.04 would prolong choppy trading and risk weakness to 106.75/78 before prospect of rebound.

Data to be released later:
UK claimant count, ILO unemployment employment change, average weekly earnings, Germany ZEW economic sentiment, ZEW current conditions, EU construction output, ZEW survey expectation.
U.S. building permits, housing starts, redbook and Canada new housing price index.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx May 20: Daily Recommendations on Major - EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 20 May 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.0938
Euro's retreat from Tuesday's 2-week high of 1.0876 suggests further 'choppy' trading below May's 1.1018 peak would continue and consolidation with downside bias remain, below 1.0896 (last week's high, now sup) would yield stronger retracement of early erratic rise from 1.0767 to 1.0850 but sup 1.0801/05 should remain intact.

On the upside, only above 1.0976 aborts present consolidative scenario on euro and risk would shift to the upside for re-test of 1.1018 later this week.

Data to be released on Wednesday:
New Zealand food price index, Japan machinery orders, Australia westpac leading index.
UK core CPI, CPI, RPI inputs, RPI outputs, PPI core outputs, EU current account, HICP, core HICP, consumer confidence U.S. MBA mortgage application and Canada CPI, CPI BOC core, core CPI.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx May 20: Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 20 May 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 107.69
Although dollar's retreat after yesterday's resumption of upmove from May's 7-week bottom at 105.99 to a 1-month high of 108.08 (New York) suggests temporary top is made and choppy sideways swings would be seen, reckon 107.50 should remain intact and yield another rise to 108.52/59 later.

On the downside, only below 107.45/50 would risk stronger retracement to 107.20/25 but 107.04 should hold.

U.S. economic calendar is very thin today with MBA mortgage applications being the only data due out. We have Atlanta Fed's Bostic n St. Louis Fed's Bullard scheduled to speak at 14:00GMT n 16:00GMT respectively.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx May 21: Daily Recommendations on Major - EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 21 May 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.0975
Yesterday's gain to a near 3-week high of 1.0999 due to broad-based usd's weakness in New York suggests re-test of May's 1.1018 peak may be seen, however, loss of upward momentum should prevent strong gain and reckon 1.1040/50 would cap upside and yield a much-needed correction of recent rise.

A daily close below 1.0919 signals top is in place, then risk would shift to downside for stronger retracement to 1.1896, then towards 1.0850 next week.

Data to be released on Thursday:
Australia manufacturing PMI, services PMI, Japan exports, imports, trade balance, Jibun Bank manufacturing PMI.
France market holiday, Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, Germany market holiday, Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, Swiss market holiday, EU Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, UK manufacturing PMI, services PMI, CBI trends orders.
Canada new housing price index, and U.S. initial jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, existing home sales, leading index change.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx May 21: Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 21 May 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 107.81
Despite dollar's retreat from Tuesday's 1-month high at 108.08 to 107.34 in New York yesterday, subsequent rebound and intra-day firmness after US Trump's China-bashing tweets suggests pullback has ended and upmove from May's 7-week bottom at 105.99 would resume and head to 108.47/52, however, overbought condition should cap price below 108.85 today.

On the downside, only below 107.45/50 would risk retracement to 107.34 but 107.04 should remain intact.

U.S. will release a slew of economic data later today (please refer to our EI page for details), however, market focus is on U.S. weekly claims n continuing claims as the latest gauge on U.S. economy in the wake of Covid-19 pandemic. Also, we have Fed chief J. Powell and other Fed presidents scheduled to speak in New York session

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx May 22: Daily Recommendations on Major - EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 22 May 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.0950
Despite resumption of recent strong rise to a fresh 3-week high of 1.1008, failure to re-test May's 1.1018 peak and subsequent retreat to 1.0938 (New York) suggests consolidation with downside bias is in store, below 1.0938 would bring stronger retracement towards 1.0896, however, reckon 1.0850 should remain intact.

Only above 1.1008/18 res extends marginal gain, however, loss of upward momentum should limit gain to 1.1050/55 and risk is seen for a correction to occur next week.

On the data front, after release of large number of EZ data earlier this week, no eco data is due out today, however, pay attention to release of the minutes of last ECB monetary policy meeting at 11:30GMT which may move the euro a little bit.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx May 22: Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 22 May 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 107.48
Despite dollar's 3-legged rise from May's 7-week low at 105.99 to a 1-month high of 108.08 on Tuesday, subsequent fall to 107.34 on Wednesday, then 107.33 today suggests temporary top is made and mild downside bias would be seen, however, reckon 107.03/04 should hold, yield rebound.

On the upside, above 107.84 would indicate pullback has ended instead and risk re-test of 108.08.

Data to be released on Friday:
UK PSNB, PSNCR, retail sales, retail sales ex-fuel, France Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, Germany Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, EU Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI and Canada retail sales

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx May 25: Daily Recommendations on Major - EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 25 May 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.0907
Euro's decline from last Thursday's near 3-week high of 1.1008 to 1.0886 on Friday due to renewed usd's strength suggests choppy trading below May's peak at 1.1018 would continue and downside bias remains for further weakness to 1.0850 but reckon 1.0800/05 should hold from here.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.0938 signals pullback has possibly ended, then risk would shift to the upside for stronger gain, however, 1.1008 is expected to remain intact.

Data to be released today :
Japan leading indicator, coincident index.
UK market holiday, Germany GDP. Ifo business climate, Ifo current conditions, Ifo expectation.
U.S. market holiday on Monday.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx May 25: Daily Recommendations on Major – USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 25 May 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 107.73
Dollar's rebound from last Friday's low at 107.33 to 107.78 in New Zealand today signals pullback from Tuesday's 1-month high at 108.08 has ended there and consolidation with upside bias remains, above said resistant would extend upmove from May's 7-week trough at 105.99 to 108.52/59.

On the downside, only below 107.33 would risk stronger retracement to 107.04.

As U.S. markets are closed today for Memorial Day holiday, no economic data is due out and as London is also closed for Spring Bank holiday, trading will be quiet in N. American session.