AceTraderFx : Daily Recommendations on Major

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Apr 24: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 24 Apr 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.0769
Despite euro's intra-day wild swings in New York after intra-day resumption of recent decline to a near 1-month trough of 1.0757 (Europe), subsequent selloff from 1.0846 to 1.0762 after EU leaders failed to agree on EZ recovery plan suggests downside bias remains for weakness towards projected target at 1.0718, then towards 2020 bottom at 1.0637 (March) later next week.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.0846 dampens bearishness on euro and may risk stronger retracement of early fall from 1.1147 to 1.0885/95.

Data to be released on Friday :
Japan nationwide core CPI, nationwide CPI, total industrial activity index.
UK GfK consumer confidence, retail sales, retail sales ex-fuel, Germany Ifo business climate, Ifo current conditions, Ifo expectations, Italy manufacturing business confidence, consumer confidence.
U.S. drable goods, durables ex-transportation, durables ex-defense, University of Michigan sentiment, and Canada budget balance.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Apr 24: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 24 Apr 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 107.68
Despite dollar's brief jump from 107.35 to 108.03 in New York yesterday, subsequent retreat suggests further choppy trading inside recent 106.94-108.08 broad range would be seen and below 107.29 would head towards 107.17, however, reckon 106.94 should hold on first testing.

On the upside, only above 108.08 would risk stronger retracement to 108.22 but 105.59/61 should remain intact.

Data to be released later:
UK GfK consumer confidence, retail sales, retail sales ex-fuel, J Germany Ifo business climate, Ifo current conditions, Ifo expectations, Italy manufacturing business confidence, consumer confidence.
U.S. drable goods, durables ex-transportation, durables ex-defense, University of Michigan sentiment, and Canada budget balance.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Apr 27: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 27 Apr 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.0817
Despite euro's resumption of recent decline to a 1-month trough of 1.0728 (Europe) on Friday, subsequent strong rebound to 1.0829 in New York session due to broad-based profit taking in usd suggests temporary low has been made and 1-2 days of choppy trading is in store before prospect of another fall, below 1.0757/62 would bring re-test of 1.0728.

Only a daily close above 1.0846 dampens bearish outlook on euro and risk would shift to upside for stronger retracement of towards 1.0896.

Data to be released today:
U.S. Dallas Fed manufacturing business index on Monday.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Apr 27: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 27 Apr 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 107.23
Intra-day selloff below last Fri's low at 107.38 in post-BoJ suggests consolidation with downside bias remains for re-test of April's trough at 106.93, where break would extend recent decline from March's 1-month peak of 111.71 to 106.76, then possibly 106.45/50 before prospect of correction.

On then upside, only above 107.35/35 would risk stronger retracement to 107.75, then 108.08.

No eco. data is due out from the euro area countries, so order flows will have impact on intra-day price swings.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Apr 28: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 28 Apr 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.0835
Although euro's strong rebound from last Friday's 1-month bottom at 1.0728 to as high as 1.0861 yesterday (Europe) suggests recent decline has made a temporary low and 1-2 days of consolidation is seen, loss of near term upward momentum should cap price at 1.0885/95 and yield decline.

A daily close below 1.0800 signals correction is over and yield weakness to 1.0757/62, then later re-test of 1.0728.

Economic calendar in the euro area countries is very thin with France's March consumer confidence being the only data due out at 06:45GMT.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Apr 28: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 28 Apr 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 107.04
Although dollar has rebounded after yesterday's fall from 107.63 to 107.00 (New York), subsequent retreat from 107.34 and intra-day weakness suggests recovery has ended and re-test of April's 106.93 low would be seen after consolidation, where break would extend decline from March's 111.71 peak towards 106.45 before prospect of correction

On the upside, only above 107.34/38 would prolong choppy sideways swings and risk 107.70/75, then possibly 108.03/08.

Data to be released later:
UK CBI distributive trades.
U.S. goods trade balance, wholesale inventories, redbook, CS home price index, consumer confidence, Richmond Fed manufacturing index.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Apr 29: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 29 Apr 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.0835
Desoite euro's rally from 1.0811 to as high as 1.088 in European trading on intra-day usd's weakness, subsequent sharp fall to 1.0818 after the greenback regained traction in New York session suggests corrective rise from last Friday's 1-month bottom at 1.07 has possibly ended.

Below 1.0810/11 sup would encourage for re-test of 1.0728 later this week and only a daily close above 1.0888 may risk stronger retracement of recent decline to 1.0935/39.

On the data front, the euro area countries will release a slew of eco. data, please refer to our economic indicators page for details.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Apr 29: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 29 Apr 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 106.42
Intra-day break below yesterday's 5-week low at 105.56 confirms decline from March's 1-month peak at 111.71 has resumed and further weakness to 106.00/10 would be seen after consolidation, however, oversold condition should keep price above 105.40/50 and yield correction.

On the upside, only above 106.96/00 would indicate temporary bottom is made and risks gain to 107.34/38.

Data to be released later:
UK BRC shop price index, Australia CPI, Germany import prices, CPI, HICP, Italy production prices, Swiss investor sentiment, EU business climate, economic sentiment, industrial sentiment, services sentiment, consumer confidence.
U.S. MBA mortgage applications, GDP, GDP deflator, core PCE prices, PCE prices pending home sales, Fed interest rate decision.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx May 04: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 04 May 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.0953
Despite euro's resumption of recent upmove from April's 1.0728 trough to a 2-week high of 1.1018 (New York) on Friday, subsequent cable-led retreat suggests temporary top is made, as long as 1.0935 holds, mild upside bias remains for marginal gain, loss of upward momentum should cap price below 1.1062/67.

A daily close below 1.0935 would bring retracement of said rise from 1.0728 towards 1.0896.

Data to be released today:
Japan market holiday, China market holiday, Australia building approvals, ANZ job advertisements.
Germany Markit manufacturing PMI, Swiss manufacturing PMI, Italy Markit manufacturing PMI, France Markit manufacturing PMI, EU Markit manufacturing PMI, sentix index.
U.S. ISM New York index, Durable ex-defense, Durable goods, Durables ex-transport, Factory orders on Monday.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx May 04: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 04 May 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 106.73
Despite dollar's strong rebound from last Wednesday's 6-week low at 106.37 to 107.49 last Thursday, subsequent retreat to 106.61 on Friday due partly to renewed U.S.-China trade tension suggests recovery has ended and intra-day sideways swings would bring range trading before prospect of another fall, however, oversold condition should keep price above 105.90/00 and yield rebound.

On the upside, only above Friday's New York high at 107.07 would risk marginal gain but 107.49 should remain intact.

U.S. will release a slew of eco. data later today starting with ISM-NY bus. conditions, durable goods n factory orders.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx May 05: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 05 Mayr 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.0910
Euro's decline from last Friday's 2-week high of 1.1018 to as low as 1.096 (New York) yesterday suggests recent rise from April's 1.0728 bottom has made a top there and consolidation with downside bias remains for further weakness, near term oversold condition should keep price above sup at 1.0834 and yield rebound later this week.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.0972 signals pullback has possibly ended, then risk would shift to the upside for another rise to 1.1000/10.

On the data front, France will release budget balance n then EU's producer prices. Some ECB members are scheduled to speak in European morning (please refer to our EI page for details).
Pay attention to release of European Commission's eco. growth forecasts (but no release time is scheduled).

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx May 05: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 05 May 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 106.69
Despite dollar's rise from last Wednesday's 6-week low at 106.37 to 107.49 on Thursday, subsequent fall to 106.61 on Friday, then 106.52 today suggests recovery has ended and intra-day bounce would bring choppy sideways swings before prospect of another decline, however, reckon 105.95/00 should hold and yield rebound.

On the upside, only above 107.49 would risk stronger retracement to 107.70/75 but 108.03/08 would remain intact.

Data to be released later today:
Swiss consumer confidence, CPI, France budget balance, UK Markit services PMI, EU producer prices.
U.S. trade balance, redbook, Markit services PMI, ISM non-manufacturing PMI, and Canada trade balance, exports, imports.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx May 06: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 06 May 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.0840
Euro's intra-day selloff in European morning from 1.0925 to 1.0827 signals the correction from April's 1-month bottom at 1.0728 has ended earlier at 1.1018 (Fri) and downside bias remains for further weakness after consolidation, reckon 1.0757/62 would contain downside.

Only a daily close above 1.0896 (Monday low) 'prolongs' choppy sideways swings and risks another rise to 1.0925 before prospect of retreat.

On the data front, Germany will kick off with industrial orders, Italy's Markit services PMI, then the same from France, Germany and the EU including retails sales.
As all the indicated data are expected to be downbeat, euro is likely to come under renewed bashing after the releases, so be nimble and be quick.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx May 06: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 06 May 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 106.28
Although dollar's intra-day firm break of last Wednesday's low at 106.37 to a 7-week trough at 106.22 (Asia) confirms decline from March's 111.71 peak has once again resumed and further weakness to 105.95/00 would be seen after consolidation, however, loss of downward momentum should keep price above 105.64/69 and yield correction later.

On the upside, only a daily close above 106.62 would indicate temporary bottom is made and yield retracement to 107.00/07.

Data to be released later:
Germany industrial orders, Markit services PMI, Italy Markit services PMI, France Markit services PMI, EU Markit services PMI, retail sales, UK Markit construction PMI
U.S. MBA mortgage applications, ADP employment change.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx May 07: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 07 May 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.0795
Euro's anticipated resumption of decline from last week's high at 1.1018 (Friday) to as low as 1.0783 yesterday's signals early upmove from April's 1-month trough at 1.0728 has ended there and downside bias remains for further weakness after consolidation, 'loss of downward momentum' should keep price above 1.0728 and yield rebound.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.0886 signals low is finally made and may head back towards 1.0925 later.

On the data front, the euro area countries will release a slew of data, please refer to our Economic Indicators page for details.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx May 07: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 07 May 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 106.34
Yesterday's break of Tuesday's low at 106.43 to a 7-week trough of 105.99 confirms decline from March's 111.71 peak has once again resumed and intra-day rebound would bring consolidation before prospect of another fall, below 105.99 would extend to 105.64/69 but 105.15/20 should remain intact due to loss of momentum.

On the upside, only above 106.62 would risk stronger retracement to 107.06/07.

Data to be released later:
Swiss unemployment rate, Germany industrial output, UK BOE interest rate decision, BOE QE total, BOE QE corporate bond purchases, BOE MPC vote hike, BOE MPC vot unchanged, BOE MPC vote cut, Halifax house prices, France current account, industrial output, non-farm payrolls, trade balance, imports, exports, Italy retail sales.
U.S. initial jobless claims, labour costs, productivity, and Canada Ivey PMI.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx May 08: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 08 May 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.0850
Although euro's anticipated resumption of decline from last week's 1.1018 high (Friday) to as low as 1.0767 in New York yesterday suggests early strong rise from April's 1.0728 has ended, subsequent rebound on broad-based usd's weakness ahead of Friday's key U.S. jobs report would bring sideways swings.

As long as 1.0857/63 holds, downside bias, below 1.0800 would yield another fall, loss of downward momentum should keep price above 1.0728. A daily close above 1.0863 would 'prolong' broad sideways swings and may risk stronger gain towards 1.0925, then 1.0960/70 next week.

Data to be released on Friday :
Japan all household spending, Jibun Bank services PMI
UK GfK consumer confidence, market holiday, Germany exports, imports, trade balance, current account.
Canada housing starts, building permits, employment change, unemployment rate, and U.S. non-farm payrolls, private payrolls, unemployment rate, average earnings, wholesale inventories, wholesale sales.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx May 08: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 08 May 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 106.32
Despite dollar's fall to a 7-week trough of 105.99 on Wednesday, subsequent rebound to 106.65 in New York yesterday signals decline from March's 111.71 peak has made a temporary low there and as price has bounced from 106.23 to 106.45 in Asia today, consolidation with upside bias remains for further headway to 107.06/07 but 107.49 should remain intact.

On the downside, only below 106.20 may risk weakness to 105.99, break, 105.64/69.

T.G.I.F. but U.S. will release key jobs report and market focus is on unemployment rate in the wake of Covid-19 pandemic which has hit American economy the hardest. Street forecast is looking for U.S. unemployment to be between 16%-19% vs prev. month's reading of 4%, if it's higher, then we may see safe-haven usd and yen buying.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx May 11: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 11 May 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.0841
Although euro's rebound from last week's low at 1.0767 (Thursday) suggests early decline from May's 4-week peak at 1.1018 has made a temporary low, as price has retreated after climbing to 1.0875 in post-NFP New York on Friday, consolidation with downside bias remains, below 1.0800 would yield re-test of 1.0767.

Only a daily close above 1.0875 would risk stronger retracement to 1.0925 but reckon 109.72 would cap upside.

Data to be released today :
New Zealand retail sales and Italy industrial output on Monday.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx May 11: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 11 May 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 107.21
Intra-day rise above last Friday's high at 106.74 (now sup) confirms near term upmove from last Wednesday's 7-week trough of 105.99 has resumed and further gain to 107.44/49 would be seen after consolidation, however, reckon 107.75/80 should hold and yield retreat due to due to overbought condition.

On the downside, only below 106.74 would risk stronger retracement to 106.37/40, then 106.23, break, 105.99.

The BOJ expanded stimulus on April 27 and pledged to buy an unlimited amount of bonds to keep borrowing costs low, as the government tries to spend its way out of the growing economic pain from the coronavirus pandemic.