AceTraderFx : Daily Recommendations on Major

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Mar 23: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 23 Mar 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 110.09
Despite dollar's rally on Friday from 109.32 (Europe) and then break of Australian 111.36 high to a fresh 3-week high at 121.50 in New York, subsequent retreat to 109.67 at European open today suggests recent upmove from March's near 3-1/2 year bottom at 101.19 has made a temporary top and choppy sideways swings would be seen.

Present rebound may head to 110.85/90 before prospect of another fall but reckon 109.32 should remain intact.

Data to be released later:
Canada wholesale trade, U.S. national activity index and EU consumer confidence on Monday.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Mar 24: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 24 Mar 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.0775
Despite the single currency's fall to a fresh near 3-year trough at 1.0637 yesterday, subsequent rebound to 1.0827 suggests a temporary low has possibly been made and choppy trading with mild upside bias would be seen, however, resistance at 1.0839 should remain intact and yield another decline towards said support, break would extend Medium Term downtrend to 1.0571 later this week.

On the upside, above 1.0839 is needed to risk stronger retracement to 1.0866/70, then 1.0913 before retreat.

There is a slew of data from the eurozone today but one should pay particular attention to Germany's manufacturing and services PMIs at 08:30GMT.
Street forecasts are 39.6 and 42.3 vs previous readings of 48.0 and 52.5 respectively.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Mar 25: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 25 Mar 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.0789
Despite the single currency's rally from Monday's fresh near 3-year trough at 1.0637 to 1.0887 yesterday, subsequent selloff to 1.0747 suggests the first leg of correction has ended and consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness to 1.0721, then 1.0690/00, however, support at 1.0667 should remain intact and yield rebound later.

On the upside, only above 1.0887 would revive bullishness for stronger retracement to 1.0940/50 but resistance at 1.0981 should cap upside and bring retreat.

Data to be released on Wednesday :
New Zealand imports, trade balance, exports.
UK core CPI, CPI, RPI, core CPI, PPi input prices, PPI output prices, PPI core output prices, CBI distributive trades, Germany Ifo business climate, Ifo current conditions, Ifo expectations,.
U.S. MBA mortgage applications, durable goods, durables ex-transportation, durables ex-defense, monthly home price index.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Mar 26: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 26 Mar 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.0889
The single currency's brief break of Tuesday's high at 1.0887 to 1.0893 suggests upmove from Monday's near 3-year trough at 1.0637 has once again resumed and further gain to 1.0956 would be seen after minor consolidation, however, near term loss of momentum would keep price below resistance at 1.0981 and yield a much-needed retreat early next week.

On the downside, only below 1.0786 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement to 1.0747, then 1.0721 before prospect of rebound.

Pay attention to release of German Gfk consumer sentiment at 07:00GMT.
Street forecast is for a drop to 7.1 from previous reading of 9.8.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Mar 26: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 26 Mar 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 110.32
Despite the greenback's rise to a 3-week peak at 111.71 Tuesday, subsequent sharp retreat to 110.76 and intra-day fall below this level suggests upmove from March's 3-1/2 year trough at 101.19 has made a temporary top there and consolidation with downside bias remains for stronger retracement to 110.09, then 109.67, however, over sold condition would keep price above 109.32 and yield rebound.

On the upside, only above 111.07 would indicate aforesaid correction has ended and risk re-test of 111.71 early next week, break, 112.22.

Data to be released on Thursday :
German GfK consumer sentiment, UK retail sales, retail sales ex-fuel, France business climate, Italy trade balance.
U.S. GDP, core PCE prices, PCE prices, trade balance, whoesales inventories, wholesale sales, initial jobless claims, KC Fed manufacturing index.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Mar 27: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 27 Mar 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1050
The single currency's rally above Wednesday's high at 1.0893 to as high as 1.1058 yesterday signals upmove from Monday's near 3-year trough at 1.0637 has once again resumed and further gain to 1.1095 would be seen after consolidation, however, over bought condition would keep price below 1.1199 and yield a much-needed correction early next week.

On the downside, only below 1.0928 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement to 1.0887 but 1.0850 shouold hold.

Data to be released on Friday :
Japan Tokyo core CPI, Tokyo CPI.
UK nationwide house price index, France consumer confidence, Italy manufacturing business confidence, consumer confidence.
U.S. personal income, personal spending, core PCE price index, PCE price index, University of Michigan sentiment, and Canada average weekly earnings, budget balance.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Mar 27: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 27 Mar 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 108.94
Despite dollar's selloff below yesterday's 109.22 low to a 1-week 108.25 bottom in Asia today, subsequent rebound suggests decline from Tuesday's 1-month 111.71 peak has made a temporary trough there and minor consolidation would be seen before prospect of another fall to 107.67/75 but 107.26 should remain intact.

On the upside, only above 109.22 would risk stronger retreacement to 109.71, then 110.16.

Data to be released later:
UK nationwide house price index, France consumer confidence, Italy manufacturing business confidence, consumer confidence.
U.S. personal income, personal spending, core PCE price index, PCE price index, University of Michigan sentiment, and Canada average weekly earnings, budget balance.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Mar 30: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 30 Mar 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1100
Euro's resumption of upmove from last Monday's near 3 -year trough of 1.0637 to 1.1147 (New York) Friday after intra-day retreat from 1.1086 (Asia) to 1.0954 in New York suggests said rise may head towards 1.1188, loss of momentum would cap price at 1.1236 and yield decline.

Remain as cautious buyer on dips for 1.1185 and only daily close below 1.1086 risks 1.1031, 1.0954.

Data to be released today:
UK nationwide house price, Swiss KOF indicator, EU business climate, economic sentiment, industrial sentiment, services sentiment, consumer confidence, Germany CPI, HICP.
U.S. pending home index, pending sales, Dallas Fed manufacturing business index on Monday

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Mar 30: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 30 Mar 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 108.03
Despite dollar's selloff from last Tuesday's 1-month high at 111.71 to 107.13 in Asia today, subsequent rebound suggests temporary low is made and consolidation with upside bias remains for gain to 108.25, where break would extend to 109.06, then 109.71.

On the downside, only below 107.13 would revive bearishness for weakness to 106.86, then 106.45.

Data to be released later:
UK nationwide house price, Swiss KOF indicator, EU business climate, economic sentiment, industrial sentiment, services sentiment, consumer confidence, Germany CPI, HICP.
pending home index, pending sales, Dallas Fed manufacturing business index on Monday

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Mar 30: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 31 Mar 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1015
Euro's decline from 1.1147 (Fri) to 1.1011 yesterday, then intra-day weakness to 1.0985 suggests early strong rise from last Mon's near 3-year bottom at 1.0637 has made a temporary top and consolidation with downside bias remains for stronger retracement to 1.0954 but reckon 1.0887/92 would hold.

Only a move back above 1.1105 signals pullback is over and yields re-test of 1.1147 later this week.

Data to be released on Tuesday :
New Zealand building permits, NBNZ business outlook, NBNZ own activity, Japan unemployment rate, industrial output, construction orders, housing starts, China NBS non-manufacturing PMI, NBS manufacturing PMI.
UK GfK consumer confidence, GDP, current account, Germany import prices, unemployment change, unemployment rate, Swiss retail sales, France consumer spending, CPI (EU norm), CPI, producer prices, Italy consumer price index, CPI (EU norm), producer prices, EU HICP, core HICP.
Canada GDP,producer prices, and U.S. redbook, CS home price, Chicago PMI, consumer confidence.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Apr 01: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 01 Apr 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1017
Although euro's decline from 1.1147 (Fri) to as low as 1.0927 yesterday confirms early upmove from March's near 3-year bottom at 1.0637 has made a top there, subsequent rebound would bring choppy trading and as long as 1.1086 res hold, re-test of 1.0927 is envisaged but reckon 1.0887 would contain weakness.

A daily close above said res indicates pullback is over, then risk would shift to upside for re-test of 1.1147 later this week.

Data to be released on Wednesday :
Australia AIG manufacturing index, building approvals, , Japan Tankan big manufacturing index, Tankan big manufacturing outlook, Tankan big non-manufacturing index, Tankan big non-manufacturing outlook, Tankan small manufacturing index, Tankan small manufacturing outlook, Tankan small non-manufacturing index, Tankan small non-manufacturing outlook, China Caixin manufacturing PMI.
UK BRC shop price index, Markit manufacturing PMI, Germany retail sales, Markit manufacturing PMI, Swiss manufacturing PMI, Italy Markit manufacturing PMI, unemployment rate, France Markit manufacturing PMI, EU Markit manufacturing PMI, unemployment rate.
U.S. MBA mortgage applications, ADP national employment, Markit manufacturing PMI, construction spending, ISM manufacturing PMI, and Canada Markit manufacturing PMI.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Apr 01: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 01 Apr 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 107.62
Despite dollar's strong bounce from Monday's 11-day low of 107.13 to 108.72 at Asian open yesterday, subsequent retreat to 107.26 today, then recovery to 107.94 would bring choppy sideways swings before decline from last Tuesday's 1-month peak at 111.71 resumes and extends to 106.76/80 before prospect of rebound.

On the upside, only above 107.94 would risk stronger retracement to 108.10, then possibly 108.60/70.

On the data front, U.S. will release MBA mortgage applications, Markit mfg n services PMIs n construction spending.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Apr 02: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 02 Apr 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.0950
Yesterday's anticipated resumption of decline from last week's high at 1.1117 (Friday) to 1.0904 suggests recent upmove from March's near 3-year bottom at 1.0637 has made a top and subsequent short-covering rebound would bring range trading before one more fall, loss of downward momentum should keep price above 1.0850.

Only a daily close above 1.1039 (Wednesday's high) signals pullback has possibly ended, then risk would shift to upside for subsequent gain towards 1.1086.

Eco. calendar in the euro area countries is pretty light and market's main attention is the release of the U.S. initial weekly jobless claims later today.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Apr 02: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 02 Apr 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 107.37
Despite dollar's resumption of decline from last Tuesday's 1-month peak at 111.71 to a near 2-week bottom at 106.93 in New York yesterday, subsequent rebound to 107.56 in Asia today suggests temporary low is made and consolidation with upside bias would be seen for stronger retracement to 107.90/00 before prospect of another fall.

On the downside, below 106.93 would yield marginal decline to 106.65/70 but 106.45 should remain intact.

Data to be released on Thursday :
UK nationwide house price, Swiss CPI, EU producer prices.
U.S. trade balance, initial jobless claims, ISM New York index, durables ex-defence, durable goods, factory orders, durables ex-transportation, and Canada trade balance, exports, imports.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Apr 03: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 03 Apr 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.0840
Euro's anticipated resumption of decline from last week's 1.11477 high to Thursday's 1-week low of 1.0821 on renewed usd's strength due to safe-haven demand following blowout U.S. jobless claims suggests correction from March's near 3-year bottom at 1.0637 has ended.

As long as 1.0904 holds, further weakness towards 1.0786 is envisaged after consolidation, however, reckon 1.0747 should contain weakness. A daily close above 1.0904 would risk stronger retracement of aforesaid fall towards 1.0969 next Monday.

Today is PMI day in the euro area countries where Markit services and mfg PMIs for Mar will be released (see our EI page for details) and these readings will be very 'weak' in the aftermath of the coronavirus outbreak, so expect euro to come under renewed selling when data from Italy, France, Germany and the EU are released.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Apr 03: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 03 Apr 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 108.17
Despite dollar's decline from last Tuesday's 1-month peak at 111.71 to retrace upmove from March's near 3-1/2 year bottom of 101.19 to 106.93 on Wednesday, subsequent erratic rise to 108.29 today suggests temporary low made and marginal gain to 108.67/72 is likely before prospect of retreat.

On the downside, below 107.56 needed to head to 106.93/03, where break would extend weakness to 106.76 but 106.45 should remain intact.

Data to be released later :
France budget balance, Markit services PMI, Italy Markit services PMI, Germany Markit services PMI, EU Markit services PMI, retail sales, UK Markit services PMI.
U.S. non-farm payrolls, private payrolls, unemployment rate, average earnings, Markit services PMI, ISM non-manufacturing PMI.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Apr 06: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 06 Apr 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.0811
Euro's decline for 5 consecutive days last week to 1.0774 in post-NFP New York on Fri suggests early corrective rally from March's near 3-year bottom at 1.0637, although strong, has ended at 1.1147 and downside bias remains for further weakness after consolidation, however, near term loss of momentum would keep price above 1.0721 today and bring rebound.

On the upside, only above 1.0904 signals temporary low is made and may risk stronger retracement to 1.0927/31 before prospect of another fall later this week.

Data to be released today:
Australia ANZ job advertisements, China market holiday, Germany industrial orders, UK Markit construction PMI and EU Sentix index.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Apr 06: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 06 Apr 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 109.09
The greenback's rally above last Thursday's high at 108.09 to 108.67 Friday, then higher to 109.37 today signals early decline from March's 1-month 111.71 peak has made a temporary bottom at Wednesday's trough at 106.93 and further gain to 109.71 is seen after consolidation, where break would extend to 110.04/09 before prospect of correction.

On the downside, only below 108.72 suggests temporary top made and risks weakness to 107.56, then 106.93.

On the data front, no eco. data is due out from the U.S. after last Fri's very downbeat jobs data with non-farm payroll showed -701k job losses in Mar n unemployment at 4.4% but market is bracing for a possible double digit number in Apr after taking into account of recent horrendous blowout numbers in weekly jobless claims.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Apr 07: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 07 Apr 2020 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.0792
Although euro's recent decline from 1.1147 to as low as 1.0769 yesterday suggests correction from Mar's near 3-year bottom at 1.0637 has ended, subsequent recovery would bring sideways trading before marginal weakness, near term loss of downward momentum would keep price above 1.0721 today.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.0866 may risk stronger retracement towards 1.0904 before prospect of another fall later this week.

The euro area countries will release a slew of eco. data, please refer to our EI section for details. Eurogroup officials meet today in Brussels n fiscal measures to support the EZ economy due to fallout from COVID-19 may come late in the day.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Apr 07: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 07 Apr 2020 09:30GMT

USD/JPY - 108.88
Although dollar's strong rebound from last Wednedsday's 106.93 low to 109.37 on Monday suggests recent decline from March's 1-month 111.71 peak has made a temporary bottom, intra-day retreat to 108.68 in Asia on usd's broad-based weakness would bring choppy sideways swings before prospect of another rise, however, reckon 109.67/70 should hold.

On the downside, only below 108.18/20 would risk stronger retracement towards 107.56.

Data to be released on Tuesday :
Germany industrial output, France current account, trade balance, imports, exports, Italy retail sales.
U.S. redbook, JOLTS job openings, and Canada Ivey PMI.