AceTraderFx : Daily Recommendations on Major

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx May 02: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 02 May 2019 06:00 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1206
Despite euro's resumption of upmove from last Friday's 22-month bottom at 1.1112 to a 12-day high at 1.1265 after Fed's unchanged rate decision, intra-day selloff to 1.0189 due to usd's broad-based rally following Fed J. Powell's less dovish comments signals 1st leg of correction is over and choppy consolidation with downside bias is seen ahead of Friday's key U.S. jobs report.

As long as 1.1230 holds, stronger retracement to 1.1141/46 is likely before rebound.
Only a daily close above 1.1230 risks re-test of 1.1265 but loss of momentum should cap euro well below 1.1300.

On the data front, Germany will kick off with retail sales, Italy's Markit mfg PMI, then the same data from France, Germany and the EU. French and German FinMins will address a press conference in Paris at 09:30GMT, then later ECB board member Jens Weidmann and ECB executive board member and chief economist Peter Praet will speak at 17:30GMT.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx May 02: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 02 May 2019 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 111.53
Despite the greenback's fall to 111.05 in post-FOMC trading, subsequent rally to 111.61 in New York afternoon on Powell's usd supportive comments and intra-day break of this resistance suggests decline from April's 4-month peak at 112.39 has made a temporary low there and consolidation with upside bias remains for gain to 111.90, however, near term loss of momentum would keep price below 112.05/10 and yield retreat.

On the downside, only below 111.05 would revive bearishness for weakness to 110.85, then 110.53 before prospect of a much-needed correction.

Data to be released on Thursday:
Germany retail sales, Markit manufacturing PMI, Swiss retail sales, manufacturing PMI, Italy Markit manufacturing PMI, France Markit manufacturing PMI, UK Markit construction PMI, BoE MPC vote hike, BoE MPC vote unchanged, BoE MPC vote cut, BoE interest rate decision, BoE QE total, BoE QE corporate bond purchases, and U.S. initial jobless claims, labor costs, productivity, ISM New York index, durables ex-defense, durable goods, factory orders, durables ex-transport.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx May 03: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 03 May 2019 05:20 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1177
Euro's decline from post-FOMC high at 1.1265 (Wed) to 1.1171 yesterday suggests early correction from last Friday's 22-month bottom at 1.1112 has possibly ended there and consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness to 1.1141/46 sup, break there would yield re-test of 1.1112 (upbeat U.S. NFP perhaps), then towards 1.1054 later next week.

On the upside, only above 1.1230 'prolongs' choppy sideways swings and risks gain towards 1.1265 (U.S. NFP miss ?), break would head to 1.1300/05.

Ahead of U.S. jobs data, the EU will release s slew of inflation data (see EI section for details). Also we have ECB Governing Council member and Buba chief Jens Weidmann speaking at 08:00GMT.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx May 03: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 03 May 2019 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 111.49
Despite dollar's resumption of decline from Apr's 4-month high at 112.39 to a 2-1/2 week low at 111.05 Wed, subsequent rally to 111.61 in post-FOMC, then 111.66 yesterday suggests pullback has ended and further gain towards 112.10/17 would be seen but 112.39 should hold on first testing.

On the downside, only below 111.05 would risk weakness towards 110.85, break, 110.52/53 later.

Data to be released on Friday:
Swiss consumer confidence, CPI, UK Markit services PMI, EU HICP, producer prices.
U.S. non-farm payrolls, private payrolls, unemployment rate, average earnings, goods trade balance, wholesale inventories, Markit services PMI, ISM non-manufacturing PMI.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx May 06: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 06 May 2019 06:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1192
Despite Friday's brief drop to 1.1135 after release of robust U.S. NFP, intra-day rally to 1.1206 due to broad-based usd's weakness as market focused on soft U.S. wage growth suggests choppy trading above April's 22-month bottom at 1.1112 would continue with upside bias.

Above 1.1206 would encourage for gain towards 1.1230, however, reckon res at 1.1265 should hold and only below 1.1135 risks re-test of 1.1112.

Today is PMI day in the euro area countries. Italy will kick off with Markit services PMI, then followed by the same from France, Germany n EU. The EU will also release Sentix investor confidence index and retail sales. ECB board member Lautenschager will speak at an ECB conference in FFT at 07:30GMT and ECB Chief Economist will have a converstion/interview with Financial Times in FFT at 15:00GMT.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx May 06: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 06 May 2019 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 110.74
Dollar's intra-day gap-down open to 110.54 in New Zealand following U.S. President Trump's tweet to threaten more trade tariffs on China on Sunday, and then lower 110.28 in Asia suggests recent decline from Apr's 4-month peak at 112.39 has once again resumed, subsequent rebound would bring range trading before prospect of another fall towards 110.00/10 later.

On the upside, only above 111.05 would indicate temporary low made and risk retracement towards 111.35/37.

Data to be released later:
UK market holiday, Italy Markit services PMI, France Markit services PMI, Germany Markit services PMI and EU Markit services PMI, Sentix index, retail sales on Monday.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx May 07: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 07 May 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1200
Despite Mon's initial gap-down to 1.1161, subsequent erratic rise above Fri's post-NFP high at 1.1206 to 1.1209 has retained near term bullishness for upmove from 1.1135 to head to 1.1230/40, however, reckon previous res at 1.1265 should cap upside and yield retreat later.

On the downside, a daily close below 1.1161 would risk re-test of 1.1135 but 2019 bottom at 1.1112 (Apr) should remain intact.

Data to be released on Tuesday :
Australia AIG construction index, retail sales, retail trade, trade balance, imports, exports, RBA interest rate decision, New Zealand GDT price index, Japan Nikkei manufacturing PMI.
Germany factory orders, France current account, trade balance, imports, exports, UK Halifax house price.
U.S. redbook, JOLTS job openings, and Canada Ivey PMI.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx May 07: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 07 May 2019 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 110.65
Although dollar has rebounded after yesterday's gap-down open and then lower to a 5-week bottom at 110.28 in Asian morning, as 110.95 (New York) has capped recovery, consolidation with downside bias remains for re-test of 110.28, break would extend recent decline from Apr's 4-month peak at 112.39 towards 110.00 but 109.71 should hold.

On the upside, only above 111.05 would indicate temporary low made and risk retracement towards 111.35/37.

U.S. eco. calendar is very light with Redbook sales n JOLTS job openings being the only data due out. We have Fed Vice Chair Quarles speaking at Yale University 15:35GMT but the topic is on financial regulation.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx May 08: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 08 May 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1195
Although euro's rally from 1.1135 (Fri) to as high as 1.1218 yesterday suggests further choppy trading above 2019 22-month bottom at 1.1112 (Apr) would continue, subsequent retreat to 1.1167 in New York would bring broad sideways swings before prospect of another rise, reckon 1.1265 (last week's high) should cap upside.

On the downside, only below 1.1135 would risk re-test of said key 1.1212 sup, then later towards 1.1054 next week.

Eco. calendar in the euro area countries is pretty thin with Germn industrial output being the only data due out. ECB's Draghi wil have dialogue with a group of youth at a student award event in FFT, so one can expect him to speak on something totally unrelated to ECB's monetary policy right.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx May 08: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 08 May 2019 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 110.15
Dollar's intra-day firm break below yesterday's 110.17 low to a fresh 5-week bottom of 109.91 in Asian morning on selloff in Nikkei suggests recent decline from April's 4-month peak at 112.39 remains in progress, subsequent rebound would bring range trading before prospect of another fall to 109.71 (March low) later, break, 109.55/60.

On the upside, only above 110.60 would indicate temporary low made instead and risk stronger retracement towards 110.85/95.

Eco. calendar in the euro area countries is pretty thin with Germn industrial output being the only data due out. ECB's Draghi wil have dialogue with a group of youth at a student award event in FFT, so one can expect him to speak on something totally unrelated to ECB's monetary policy right.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx May 09: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 09 May 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1194
Although euro's daily sideways swings following early rally from 1.1135 (Friday) to 1.1218 (Tuesday) are likely to would continue, as long as sup area at 1.1161/67 holds, upside bias remains for aforesaid rise to yield marginal gain, reckon res at 1.1265 (Last week's high) should cap subsequent rise and yield decline.

A daily close below 1.1161 signals rebound is over, then risk would shift to the downside for re-test of 1.1135.

No eco. data is due out from euro area countries but we have ECB Board member Nowotny n Lane speaking at a conference in Vienna at 07:00GMT.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx May 09: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 09 May 2019 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 109.67
Dollar's initial break of yesterday's low at 109.91 to a fresh 5-week low at 109.84 at Asian open on Trump's comments, and then present fall after remarks from China Commerce Ministry suggests decline from Apr's 4-month peak at 112.39 has resumed and further weakness towards 109.15/25 would be seen but loss of momentum should keep price above 108.73.

On the upside, only above 110.28 would indicate temporary low made, risk gain towards 110.60/70.

Data to be released on Thursday :
UK RICS housing price balance, U.S. trade balance, initial jobless claims, PPI, wholesale inventories, wholesale sales, and Canada new housing price index, trade balance, exports, imports.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx May 10: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 10 May 2019 06:00 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1200
Despite Monday's initial gap-down to 1.1161, subsequent erratic rise above Fri's post-NFP high at 1.1206 to 1.1209 has retained near term bullishness for upmove from 1.1135 to head to 1.1230/40, however, reckon previous res at 1.1265 should cap upside and yield retreat later.

On the downside, a daily close below 1.1161 would risk re-test of 1.1135 but 2019 bottom at 1.1112 (April) should remain intact.

Data to be released on Tuesday :
Australia AIG construction index, retail sales, retail trade, trade balance, imports, exports, RBA interest rate decision, New Zealand GDT price index, Japan Nikkei manufacturing PMI.
Germany factory orders, France current account, trade balance, imports, exports, UK Halifax house price.
U.S. redbook, JOLTS job openings, and Canada Ivey PMI.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx May 14: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 14 May 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1235
Euro's retreat in New York session on Mon after re-test previous May's 1.1265 high (Reuters) suggests recent erratic upmove has possibly make a top there and consolidation with downside bias is seen, below 1.1204/08 would add credence to this view and bring stronger retracement to 1.1167/70.

Only above 1.1265 risks marginal gain, however, loss of upward momentum should cap price at 1.1300/04.

The euro area will release a slew of eco. data during European morning, please refer to our Economic Indicator section for details.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx May 14: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 14 May 2019 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 109.67
Although dollar's intra-day rally from 109.15 in Australia to 109.77 in Europe suggests recent decline from April's 4-month peak at 112.39 has made a temporary low at yesterday's 13-week bottom of 109.02 and stronger retracement towards 110.00/05 would be seen before prospect of retreat.

Only above 110.28/32 would risk gain towards 110.60 while below 109.02 would risk another fall to 108.73, then 108.50.

U.S. will release a slew of eco. data (see EI for details) and we have S.F. Fed President Williams speaking at a conference in Zurich at 07:15GMT, then Kansas City Fed's George will speaking at 16:45GMT.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx May 15: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 15 May 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1204
Yesterday's anticipated fall from 1.1246 (Reuters) to 1.1201 near New York close confirms recent erratic rise from May's 1.1135 low has made a top at 1.1265 (Reuters) on Monday and consolidation with downside bias remains for further weakness, however, reckon 1.1135 should continue to hold and bring choppy sideways swings.

Only above 1.1265 risks stronger correction of Medium Term downtrend to 1.1290/00 later this week.

The euro area countries will release a slew of eco. data (pls refer to our EI page for details). ECB's Lane will give a speech in Tallinn at 08:00GMT. German ECONMIN Altmaier will speak at 12:30GMT, then ECB's Coeure will speak in Paris at 14:15GMT and later ECB's Chief Economist Praet will speak in Belgium at 16:30GMT.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx May 15: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 15 May 2019 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 109.49
Despite dollar's resumption of recent decline from Apr's 4-month peak at 112.39 to a 3-month low of 109.02 on Mon, yesterday's strong rebound to 109.77 suggests temporary low is in place and range trading would be seen before prospect of another fall but reckon 108.50 should hold, yield rebound.

On the upside, above 109.77 would extend marginal gain to 110.00/05 but 110.28/32 should remain intact.

Data to be released on Wednesday :
Germany GDP, France CPI, Italy industrial orders, industrial sales, EU employment, GDP.
U.S. MBA mortgage application, New York Fed manufacturing index, retail sales, industrial production, capacity utilization, manufacturing output, business inventories, NAHB housing market index, and Canada CPI.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx May 16: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 16 May 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1206
Despite euro's resumption of decline from this week's 1.1265 high (Monday) to 1.1178 on Italy's budget deficit concerns, intra-day jump to 1.1225 after news Trump may delay auto-tariffs suggests choppy trading inside recent 1.1135-1.1265 broad range would continue with upside bias.

Only below 1.1178 risks marginal weakness but loss of downward momentum should keep price well above 1.1135 and bring another rebound later.

Data to be released on Thursday :
Japan corporate goods price, China house price index, Australia employment change, unemployment rate, Italy CPI, trade balance, EU trade balance, U.S. building permits, housing starts, initial jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed survey, and Canada manufacturing sales ADP employment change.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx May 16: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 16 May 2019 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 109.47
Despite dollar's fall from 109.70 in Europe to 109.16 (New York) yesterday, subsequent strong rebound to 109.68 suggests choppy trading above Monday's 3-month low at 109.02 would continue, intra-day retreat would bring range trading before prospect of another rise but 110.05 should remain intact and yield another decline.

Only below 109.16 would risk re-test of 109.02, break may yield marginal weakness towards 108.84 before rebound.

U.S. will release weekly jobless claims, building permits, housing starts, Philly Fed survey all due out at 12:30GMT, so one can expected market reaction after this data dump. Also, pay attention to speeches by Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari and Fed Governor Brainard near New York mid-day.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx May 17: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 17 May 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1177
Despite euro's resumption of decline from this week's 1.1265 (Monday) high to 1.1168 yesterday due to usd's strength in New York after upbeat U.S. data and rebound in U.S. yields, as price is expected to remain confined inside recent 1.1265-1.1135 range, reckon lower level would hold and yield rebound later today or Monday.

On the upside, a daily close above 1.1200 would be the 1st signal low is made and price would head back to 1.1225, then 1.1244/46.

Data to be released on Friday :
New Zealand manufacturing PMI, PPI inputs, PPI outputs, EU construction output, HICP, and U.S. leading indicator, University of Michigan sentiment.