AceTraderFx : Daily Recommendations on Major

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Mar 22: Daily Recommendations on Major - EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 22 Mar 2019 05:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1363
Despite the single currency's rise to a fresh 6-week peak at 1.1448 on Wednesday on the Federal Reserve's dovish hold, subsequent selloff to 1.1343 yesterday suggests upmove from March's 20-month trough at 1.1177 has made a temporary top there and consolidation with downside bias remains for stronger retracement to 1.1294, however, loss of momentum would keep price above 1.1278 and yield correction early next week.

On the upside, only above 1.1448 would revive bullishness for further gain to 1.1489 but psychological resistance at 1.1500 would hold initially and bring retreat.

Data to be released on Friday :
Australia manufacturing PMI, services PMI, Japan CPI, Nikkei manufacturing PMI.
France Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, Germany Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, EU current account, Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, UK PSNB, PSNCR.
Canada CPI, retail sales, U.S. Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, existing home sales, wholesale inventories, wholesale sales, Federal budget.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Mar 25: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 25 Mar 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1292
Despite the single currency's rise to a fresh 6-week peak at 1.1448 last Wednesday on the Federal Reserve's dovish hold, subsequent selloff to 1.1274 on Friday suggests upmove from March's 20-month trough at 1.1177 has made a temporary top there and consolidation with downside bias remains for stronger retracement to 1.1249/50, however, loss of momentum would keep price above 1.1222 and yield correction later this week.

On the upside, only above 1.1448 would revive bullishness for further gain to 1.1489 but psychological resistance at 1.1500 would hold initially and bring retreat.

Pay attention to the release of German Ifo business climate and current conditions at 09:00GMT.
Street forecasts are 98.5 and 102.9 vs previous readings of 98.5 and 103.4.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Mar 25: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 25 Mar 2019 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 110.10
Dollar's intra-day brief break of Friday's 5-week low at 109.74 to 109.71 in Asia due to selloff in Nikkei-225 suggests recent decline from March's 10-week peak at 112.14 has resumed, subsequent rebound would bring range trading before prospect of another fall towards 109.15/25.

On the upside, only above 110.30 would indicate temporary low made and yield stronger retracement towards 110.65.

Data to be released later:
Germany Ifo business climate, Ifo current conditions, Ifo expectations, and U.S. Chicago national activity index, Dallas Fed manufacturing business index on Monday.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Mar 26: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 26 Mar 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1314
Despite the single currency's rise to a fresh 6-week peak at 1.1448 last Wednesday, subsequent selloff to 1.1274 on Friday suggests upmove from March's 20-month trough at 1.1177 has made a temporary top there and consolidation with downside bias remains for stronger retracement to 1.1249/50, however, loss of momentum would keep price above 1.1222 and yield correction later this week.

On the upside, only above 1.1392 would indicate aforesaid correction has ended instead and risk gain towards 1.1438 but said 1.1448 top should remain intact on first testing.

Pay attention to the release of German Gfk consumer sentiment a 07:00GMT. Street forecast is for it to remain unchanged at 10.8.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Mar 27: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 27 Mar 2019 06:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1263
Despite the single currency's rise to a fresh 6-week peak at 1.1448 last Wednesday, subsequent selloff to 1.1263 yesterday suggests upmove from March's 20-month trough at 1.1177 has made a temporary top there and consolidation with downside bias remains for stronger retracement to 1.1249/50.
However, loss of momentum would keep price above 1.1222 and yield correction later this week.

On the upside, only above 1.1392 would indicate aforesaid correction has ended instead and risk gain towards 1.1438 but said 1.1448 top should remain intact on first testing.

There isn't much on the data front from the eurozone today but traders should pay attention to speeches from a few ECB officials at The ECB and Its Watchers conference in Frankfurt. President Mario Draghi is scheduled to speak at 08:00GMT, followed by Chief Economist Peter Praet at 08:45GMT.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Mar 27: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 27 Mar 2019 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 110.59
Dollar's intra-day brief break above yesterday's 110.69 high on renewed usd's strength suggests recent decline from March's 10-week high at 112.14 has made a temporary low at Monday's 5-week low of 109.71 and further gain towards 111.10/15 would be seen after consolidation but loss of momentum should cap price below 111.21.

On the downside, only below 110.24 would prolong choppy trading, risk weakness towards 109.94.

Data to be released later:
France consumer confidence, producer prices, Italy business confidence, consumer confidence, trade balance,Swiss investor sentiment, UK CBI distributive trades.
U.S. MBA mortgage application, trade balance, current account, and Canada trade balance, exports, imports, average weekly earnings.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Mar 28: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 28 Mar 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1242
The single currency's fall yesterday and break of Tuesday's low at 1.1263 to 1.1242 suggests decline from last Wednesday's 6-week peak at 1.1448 to retrace upmove from March's 20-month trough at 1.1177 has once again resumed and consolidation with downside bias remains for marginal weakness.
However, loss of momentum would keep price above support at 1.1222 and yield a much-needed rebound later.

Above 1.1286 would indicate a temporary low has been made and risk stronger correction to 1.1327/32 but resistance at 1.1392 should remain intact.

Pay attention to EU's release of business climate, economic sentiment and industrial sentiment at 10:00GMT. Street forecasts are 0.66, 105.9 and -0.8 vs previous readings of 0.69, 106.1 and -0.4 respectively.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Mar 28: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 28 Mar 2019 09:30 GMT


USD/JPY - 110.19
Dollar's fall from Wednesday's 110.71 high to 110.02 in Europe today suggests correction from Monday's 5-week low at 109.71 has ended there and below 109.71 would extend recent decline from March's 10-week peak at 112.14 towards 109.56/60, then 109.26.

On the upside, only above 110.71 would risk gain towards 110.96/00.

Pay attention to the release of U.S. GDP and GDP deflator at 12:30GMT. Street forecasts see a slower rate of growth at 2.4% and 1.8% vs previous readings of 2.6% and 2.0% respectively.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Mar 29: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 29 Mar 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1226
The single currency's fall yesterday and break of Wednesday's low at 1.1242 to 1.1214 suggests decline from last Wednesday's 6-week peak at 1.1448 to retrace upmove from March's 20-month trough at 1.1177 has once again resumed and consolidation with downside bias remains for marginal weakness.
However, loss of momentum would keep price above support at 1.1190/95 and yield a much-needed rebound later.

On the upside, only above 1.1286 would indicate a temporary low has been made and risk stronger correction to 1.1327/32 but resistance at 1.1392 should remain intact.

Pay attention to German employment change and unemployment rate at 08:55GMT. Street forecasts are -10k and 4.9% vs previous readings of -21k and 5.0% respectively.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Apr 01: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 01 Apr 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1227
The single currency's fall on Friday and break of Thursday's low at 1.1214 to 1.1210 suggests decline from last Wednesday's 6-week peak at 1.1448 to retrace upmove from March's 20-month trough at 1.1177 has once again resumed and consolidation with downside bias remains for marginal weakness, however, loss of momentum would keep price above support at 1.1190/95 and yield a much-needed rebound later.

On the upside, only above 1.1286 would indicate a temporary low has been made and risk stronger correction to 1.1327/32 but resistance at 1.1392 should remain intact.

EU will release its final readings on manufacturing PMIs of Italy, France, Germany and EZ. All of them are expected to come in the same as previous reading at 47.7, 49.8, 44.7 and 47.6 respectively.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Apr 01: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 01 Apr 2019 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 111.02
Dollar's intra-day gap-up open above lat Friday's 110.95 top on upbeat China PMI data over the weekend and then gained to a 10-day high at 111.19 in Asian morning suggests recent upmove from last Monday's 5-week low at 109.71 has resumed and would head towards 111.40/45 after consolidation.

On the downside, only below 110.53/54 would indicate temporary top made and risk weakness towards 110.24, then possibly 110.02.

Data out later today:
Swiss retail sales, manufacturing PMI, Italy Markit manufacturing PMI, unemployment rate, France Markit manufacturing PMI, Germany Markit manufacturing PMI, EU Markit manufacturing PMI, HICP.
Canada Markit manufacturing PMI, and U.S. retail sales, Markit manufacturing PMI, business inventories, construction spending, ISM manufacturing PMI.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Apr 02: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 02 Apr 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1206
The single currency's fall yesterday and break of Friday's low at 1.1210 suggests decline from last Wednesday's 6-week peak at 1.1448 to retrace upmove from March's 20-month trough at 1.1177 has once again resumed and consolidation with downside bias remains for marginal weakness, however, loss of momentum would keep price above aforesaid low and yield a rebound later this week.

On the upside, only above 1.1286 would indicate a temporary low has been made and risk stronger correction to 1.1327/32 but resistance at 1.1392 should remain intact.

Pay attention to release of EU PPI mm and yy at 09:00GMT. Street forecasts are 0.1% and 3.1% vs previous readings of 0.4% and 3.0% respectively.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Apr 03: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 03 Apr 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1216
The single currency's fall yesterday and break of Friday's low at 1.1210 to 1.1184 suggests a re-test of March's 20-montht rough at 1.1177 is forthcoming after consolidation, break would extend marginally, however, loss of momentum would prevent sharp move beyond and risk would increase for a much-needed correction later this week.

On the upside, only above 1.1286 would indicate a temporary low has been made and risk stronger correction to 1.1327/32 but resistance at 1.1392 should remain intact.

There is a slew of services PMIs out from the eurozone today but pay attention to the release of EU retail sales mm and yy at 09:00GMT.
Street forecasts are 0.2% and 2.3% vs previous readings of 1.3% and 2.2% respectively.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Apr 02: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 03 Apr 2019 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 111.52
Dollar's intra-day rise at Asian open on positive U.S.-China trade talk news and then break of yesterday's high at 111.46 to 111.58 at European open suggests recent upmove from last Monday's 5-week trough of 109.71 remains in force and re-test of March's 112.14 high would be seen after consolidation.

On the downside, only below 111.19 would risk stronger retracement towards 110.82 before prospect of rebound.

Data to be released on Wednesday :
Italy Markit services PMI, France Markit services PMI, Germany Markit services PMI, EU Markit services PMI, retail sales, UK Markit services PMI.
U.S. Markit services PMI, MBA mortgage application, ADP employment change, ISM non-manufacturing PMI.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Apr 04: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 04 Apr 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1245
Despite the single currency's fall to 1.1184 on Tuesday, subsequent strong rebound to 1.1255 yesterday on the release of upbeat services PMIs from the eurozone suggests decline from March's peak at 1.1448 has ended there and choppy trading above March's 20-month trough at 1.1177 would continue with upside bias, however, loss of momentum would cap price at 1.1332 and yield retreat early next week.

On the downside, only below 1.1204 would indicate said recovery is over, risk 1.1184 again, break would extend towards said 1.1177 low.

Data to be released on Thursday :
Germany industrial orders, France budget balance, U.S. initial jobless claims, and Canada Ivey PMI.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Apr 04: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 04 Apr 2019 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 111.35
Dollar's resumption of recent upmove from March's 5-week low at 109.71 to 111.58 yesterday suggests correction from March's 10-week high at 112.14 has ended there and subsequent retreat would bring range trading before another re-test of 112.14, where break would extend rise from January's 9-month trough of 104.79 towards 112.69 later.

On the downside, only below 111.19 would indicate temporary top made and risk stronger retracement towards 110.82 before prospect of rebound.

Pay attention to the release of U.S. jobless claims at 12:30GMT.
Street forecast is for an increase to 216k from previous reading of 211k. Elsewhere, keep an eye out on comments from Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker, who is set to speak on the economic outlook before the Monetary Policy Outlook hosted by the Philadelphia Council for Business Economics at 17:00GMT.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Apr 08: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 08 Apr 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1220
Euro's intra-day retreat from 1.1247 to 1.1210 in post-NFP trading in New York Friday suggests further choppy trading below last week's high at 1.1255 (Wednesday) would continue with downside bias, below 1.1206/10 sup would signal early correction from Tuesday's 3-week low has ended and would yield re-test of March's 20-month trough at 1.1177.

Only a daily close above 1.1255 risks stronger retracement of early decline from 1.1448 (March high) and brings stronger retracement to 1.1286 but res at 1.1327/32 should hold.

On the data front, we have Germany's imports, exports, trade balance n current current, then followed by EU Sentix investor confidence index.
Also, we have ECB Governing Council member Nowotny speaking at a conference in Vienna at 07:30GMT, then later ECB's Villeroy will speak at a conference in Paris at 16:00GMT.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Apr 08: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 08 Apr 2019 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 111.46
Although dollar's intra-day retreat in Asia to 111.35 due to active cross-unwinding in Japanese yen suggests recent erratic upmove has made a temporary top at Fri's near 3-week high in post-NFP New York morning and choppy consolidation is in store, as long as 111.19/21 sup area holds, upside bias remains for marginal gain, 'loss of momentum' should cap price below Mar's high at 112.14.

A daily close below 111.19 would risk stronger retracement towards 110.82 before prospect of rebound later this week.

Data out later today:
Germany exports, imports, trade balance, current account, EU Sentix index.
Canada housing starts, building permits, and U.S. durables ex-defense, durable goods, durables ex-transportation on Monday.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Apr 09: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 09 Apr 2019 06:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1275
Although yesterday's rally above last week's 1.1255 high to 1.1275 due to broad-based euro buying on short covering ahead of Wednesday's key ECB monetary policy meeting confirms recent decline from March's 1.1448 peak has made a temporary low at 1.1184 and as long as 1.1206/10 sup holds, stronger retracement of said fall is envisaged, near term overbought condition would cap price at 1.1332.

Below 1.1206 any time signals recovery is over and risk would shift to the downside for weakness towards 2019 bottom at 1.1177 (March).

Data to be released on Tuesday :
UK BRC retail sales, Swiss unemployment rate, Italy retail sales.
U.S. redbook, JOLTS job openings.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Apr 09: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 09 Apr 2019 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 111.27
Despite dollar's initial brief bounce to 111.58 in Asia, intra-day marginal break of yesterday's 111.29 low (New York) suggests recent upmove has made a temporary top at Friday's near 3-week peak at 111.82 and consolidation with downside bias remains for stronger retracement, reckon sup at 110.82 would contain weakness and bring rebound.

On the upside, only above 111.58/68 signals pullback is over and risk is seen for re-test of 111.82, then towards March's peak at 112.14 later this week.

U.S. eco. data is pretty light today with Redbook retail sales and JOLTS job openings being the only data due out in New York morning.