AceTraderFx : Daily Recommendations on Major

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Apr 10: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 10 Apr 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1262
Euro's intra-day retreat from Tuesday's near 2-week high at 1.1285 would bring initial consolidation ahead of key ECB monetary policy meeting, as long as 1.1245/55 holds, upmove from 1.1184 would yield marginal gain, loss of upward momentum should cap price below 1.1332 and yield retreat.

On then downside, a break of 1.1206/10 sup (ECB's dovish hold perhaps) signals correction over and risk is seen for weakness to 1.1184, then re-test of 2019 20-month bottom at 1.1177 March).

On the eco. data front, we have France's industrial output, then the same from Italy.
The EU is having a special meeting of the European Council (Article 50) on Brexit starting at 17:00GMT and this will continue into a working meeting.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Apr 10: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 10 Apr 2019 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 111.17
Dollar's decline from last week's 111.82 (Fri) high to 110.98 yesterday due to safe-haven yen buying suggests recent cross-inspired upmove from March's 5-week bottom at 109.71 has made a temporary top and despite subsequent recovery, outlook remains bearish for weakness to 110.82 objective, loss of downward momentum should keep price above previous 110.53/54 sup.

Only a daily close above 111.40 indicates pullback has ended, then risk is seen for gain to 111.58, break would yield re-test of 111.82.

Data to be released on Wednesday :
France industrial output, Italy industrial output, UK GDP, industrial output, manufacturing output, construction output, trade balance, EU ECB interest rate decision, ECB deposit rate decision.
U.S. MBA mortgage application, CPI, real weekly earnings, Federal budget, FOMC minutes.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Apr 11: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 11 Apr 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1277
Despite euro's brief but sharp retreat from yesterday's 2-week high of 1.1288 to 1.1230 after dovish comments by ECB's Draghi, subsequent strong bounce to 1.1280 following release of dovish FOMC minutes suggests upside bias remains for recent erratic rise from 1.1184 to extend marginal gain, 'loss of upward momentum' should cap price below res at 1.1332.

On the downside, below 1.1230 any way signals correction is over, then risk would shift to the downside for weakness to 1.1206/10, then later towards 1.1184.

Data to be released on Thursday :
UK RICS housing price balance, China PPI, CPI, Germany CPI, HICP, France CPI, U.S. initial jobless claims, PPI, and Canada new housing price index.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Apr 12: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 12 Apr 2019 06:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1283
Although euro has risen after yesterday's fresh 2-week high of 1.1289 to 1.1292 in Asia, suggesting recent erratic upmove from April's 1.1184 bottom remains in force, 'loss of upward momentum' should prevent strong gain above 1.1300 today and reckon previous res at 1.1327/32 should cap intra-day gain and bring strong retreat of aforesaid rise.

On the downside, below 1.1250 (New York low) would be 1st signal temporary top is made and would yield weakness to 1.1230, then 1.1206/10.

On the data front, Germany will release Mar wholesale price index n then EU's industrial production. We have several ECB officials participating in the IMF/World Bank meeting in Washinghton D.C., please refer to our EI section for details.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Apr 12: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 12 Apr 2019 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 111.94
Intra-day cross-inspired break above last Friday's 111.82 high to a 1-month top of 111.95 confirms recent upmove from March's 5-week low of 109.71 has resumed and would yield re-test of March's 112.14 high, where break would extend medium term rise from January's 9-month 104.79 trough towards 112.30/40 but 112.69 may hold.

On the downside, only below 111.57/58 would risk stronger retracement towards 111.28/29.

T.G.I.F., U.S. will release import n export prices and then University of Michigan consumer confidence.
We also have the second day of the 2-day IMF and World Bank meeting where a number of govt. finance officials will be speaking (please refer to our EI section for details).

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Apr 15: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 15 Apr 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1308
Euro's resumption of recent upmove from April's 1.1184 low to a 2-week high of 1.1325 due to active eur/yen demand suggests said rise would head to 1.1375 after consolidation, loss of momentum is expected to cap price at 1.1400 this week and yield retreat.

On the downside, only below 1.1270/80 signals top is in place, then risk would shift to the downside for stronger retracement to 1.1250 and later 1.1230.

There is no eco. data due out from the euro area countries n no EZ officials are scheduled to speak, therefore, funds flow (more eur/yen buying perhaps) will dominate intra-day price swings.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Apr 15: Daily Recommendations on Major USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 15 Apr 2019 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 111.94
Although dollar's retreat after intra-day 1-tick break of Friday's high at 112.09 suggests consolidation is in store before a re-test of March's 10-week peak at 112.14 is forthcoming and a break there would extend upmove from January's 9-month trough at 104.79 towards 112.35 later, loss of momentum would prevent sharp move beyond there and risk would increase for a much-needed correction.

On the downside, only below 111.28 would indicate a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement to 110.83 later this week

Data to be released today:
Swiss producer/import price, and U.S. New York Fed manufacturing index on Monday.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Apr 16: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 16 Apr 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1305
Although yesterday's retreat from 1.1321 to 1.1298 in lackluster Monday's session suggests further sideways swings below Fri's 2-week high at 1.1325 would continue, as long as 1.1280/90 holds, recent erratic rise from 1.1184 would head to 1.1375, loss of upward momentum should cap price below minor res at 1.1392.

Below 1.1280 signals aforesaid rise has made a temporary top, then risk would shift to the downside for stronger retracement to 1.1250 and later 1.1230.

ON the eco. data, Germany will kick off with ZEW eco. sentiment and current conditions for April, then we have EU's constriction output and ZEW eco. sentiment index. ECB's Nowotny will speak in New York at an event at 13:50GMT.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Apr 17: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 17 Apr 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1282
Euro's intra-day brief breach of Tuesday's 1.1280 low (Europe) suggests recent upmove from 1.1184 has made a temporary top at Fri's 2-week high at 1.1325, however, firm break below 1.1270 needed to bring stronger retracement of said move to 1.1250, then later 1.1230, however, reckon 1.1200/10 should remain intact this week.

Above 1.1314 would signal pullback has ended, then price would head to 1.1365/75 before correction occurs due to loss of upward momentum.

On the data front, Italy will kick off with Mar CPI, then EU's current account, Italy's trade balance n followed by EU's trade balance n HICP.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Apr 17: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 17 Apr 2019 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 112.06
Dollar's intra-day rise to a near 4-month high at 112.17 at Asian open confirms medium term upmove from Jan's 9-month trough of 104.79 has resumed, subsequent retreat would bring range trading before price extends to 112.50/55 but loss of momentum should cap price below 112.67.

On the downside, only below 111.58 would risk stronger retracement towards 111.28 before rebound.

Data to be released on Wednesday:
Italy consumer prices, trade balance, global EU current account, trade balance, HICP, UK CPI, RPI, PPI input prices, PPI output prices.
U.S. MBA mortgage application, trade balance, wholesale sales, and Canada CPI, trade balance, exports, imports.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Apr 18: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 18 Apr 2019 06:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1292
Despite yesterday's intra-day rebound from 1.1279 (Australia) to session highs of 1.1324 in European morning, failure to penetrate last Friday's 2-week peak at 1.1325 has led to profit taking in New York and 1.1275/79 needs to hold for recent upmove from Aprl's 1.1184 bottom to head to 1.1375, loss of upward momentum should cap price below 1.1400 this week.

A daily close below 1.1279 signals said rise has made a temporary top, then risk is seen for stronger retracement to 1.1230, however, reckon 1.1200/10 should remain intact.

Today is PMI day in the EZ, Germany will kick off with PPI, France will release Markit mfg and servcies PMIs, then the same from Germany and the the EU, Italy will later finish off with industrial order and industrial sales.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Apr 23: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 23 Apr 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1252
Although euro's selloff last Thursday due to downside German and EZ PMI data to a 1-week low of 1.1227 suggests early correction from April's 1.1184 bottom has ended at 1.1325, subsequent sideways swings in holiday-thinned Easter Friday and Monday sessions signals range trading would continue until European markets re-open from Easter break.

As 1.1263 (New York high Monday) has capped recovery, bearishness is retained but only below 1.1184 needed to bring re-test of 2019 20-month trough at 1.1177 (Mar).
Only above 1.1279/80 (previous sup, now res) would 'prolong' choppy consolidation and may risk another rise to 1.1300/10.

Although all major European centre will re-open today after the long Easter holiday break, eco. calendar in the EZ is very thin with EU consumer confidence for Apr being the only data which is due out pretty later in the day at 14:00GMT, so funds flow may have a greater impact on intra-day price swings.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Apr 24: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 24 Apr 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1217
Despite yesterday's expected resumption of recent decline from Apr's 1.1325 to a near 3-week low of 1.1192 due to renewed usd's strength in New York morning, failure to re-test Apr's 1.1184 trough and subsequent rebound to 1.1231 (Australia) suggests initial choppy range trading is in store.

Above 1.1231/36 may risk stronger retracement to 1.1262/63 but 1.3104 should cap upside whilst below 1.1192 would yield re-test of 2019 bottom at 1.1177, break would head to 1.1125/30.

On the eco. data front, France will kick off with business climate, then pay attention to key German Ifo business climate, current conditions n expectations, then lastly, Italy's trade balance.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Apr 24: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 24 Apr 2019 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 111.81
Although dollar has retreated after resumption of upmove from Jan's 9-month trough of 104.79 to a near 4-month high at 112.17 last Wed, yesterday's rebound from 111.66 (Asia) to 112.03 in New York signals range trading would be seen before price extends towards 112.40/45 but loss of momentum should cap price below 112.67 and yield correction.

On the downside, only below 111.58/66 would risk stronger retracement towards 111.28, then 111.00/05.

Data to be released on Wednesday :
France business climate, Germany Ifo business climate, Ifo current conditions, Ifo expectations, Italy trade balance, Swiss investor sentiment, UK PSNB, PSNCR.
U.S. MBA mortgage application and Canada Bank of Canada interest rate decision.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Apr 25: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 25 Apr 2019 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1148
Yesterday's break of previous 2019 low at 1.1177 (March) to a 22-month trough of 1.1141 after 7 weeks of broad sideways swings suggests medium-term downtrend has finally resumed and price is en route towards next projected downside target at 1.1054 next week.

Today, reckon 1.1200/10 would hold and yield weakness to 1.1100/10 before prospect of a minor correction later.

Data to be released on Thursday :
Australia market holiday, New Zealand market holiday, Japan Bank of Japan interest rate decision, UK CBI trends survey, U.S. durable goods, durables ex-transport, durables ex-defense, initial jobless claims, KC Fed manufacturing index, and Canada average weekly earnings.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Apr 25: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 25 Apr 2019 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 111.86
Although dollar's retreat after yesterday's rally to a 4-month peak at 112.39 in New York suggests medium term upmove from January's 9-month trough of 104.79 has made a temporary top there and range trading would be seen before price head towards 112.67 later but loss of momentum should limit upside to 113.00.

On the downside, only below 111.66 would risk stronger retracement towards 111.58, then 111.28/33.

Ahead of Friday's key U.S. GDP, we have the usual weekly jobless claims, durable goods order and KC Fed mfg index.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Apr 26: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 26 Apr 2019 06:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1132
Although euro's recovery in New York session after hitting a fresh 22-month trough at 1.1118 to 1.1154 on short covering suggests initial range trading is in store ahead of release of key U.S. GDP data, as long as 1.1177 (previous 2019 low, now res) holds, medium-term downtrend should head to 1.1085/90 after consolidation, 'loss of downward momentum' is expected to keep price above projected sup at 1.1054.

Only a daily close above 1.1177 confirms temporary low has been made, then risk would shift to the upside for stronger retracement to 1.12320/30 before prospect of retreat.

Bo euro area eco. data is due out today, however, ECB Governing Council member will deliver a speech at Finnish central bank seminar in Helsinki at 08:00GMT.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Apr 26: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 26 Apr 2019 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 111.69
Although yesterday's decline to 111.38 in New York confirms recent upmove has made a temporary top at Wed's 4-month peak at 112.39 and range trading is seen ahead of key U.S. GDP data, as long as daily sup at 110.85 holds, upside bias remains and above 112.00/05 signals pullback is over and may head towards 112.67 early next week.

Only below 110.85 signals long-awaited correction has occurred and risk would shift to downside for stronger retracement to 110.00/10 later.

Data to be released later:
France consumer confidence, UK BBA mortgage approvals, CBI trends survey, and U.S. GDP, PCE, University of Michigan sentiment.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Apr 29: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 29 Apr 2019 06:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1149
Although Friday's rebound from a fresh 22-month trough at 1.1112 to 1.1174 in New York on short-covering after robust U.S. GDP but soft inflation data suggests recent downtrend has made a minor low and consolidation is in store initially, as long as 1.1174/77 holds, downside bias remains, below 1.1112 would extend marginal weakness, loss of momentum should limit weakness to 1.1080/90.

Only a daily close above 1.0177 (previous 2019 low in March) signals temporary bottom is in place and risks stronger retracement to 1.1220/30 later this week.

Data to be released later today:
Japan market holiday, Italy producer prices, EU business climate, economic sentiment, industrial sentiment, services sentiment, consumer confidence, and U.S. personal income, personal spending, PCE price index, Dallas Fed manufacturing business index on Monday.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Apr 29: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 29 Apr 2019 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 111.75
Despite dollar's brief jump to 112.03 in New York on Fri due to robust U.S. GDP data, subsequent fall to 111.43 on soft U.S. PCE suggests further choppy trading below last Wed's 4-month peak at 112.39 would be seen, intra-day rebound would bring range trading before another decline but 111.00/10 should hold.

On the upside, above 112.03 would bring re-test of 112.39, break, 112.60/67.
Below 110.85 would risk retracement towards 110.53/58.

On the U.S. data front, we have personal income, core PCE price index, PCE price index and Dallas Fed mfg business index.