AceTraderFx : Daily Recommendations on Major

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by AceTRaderForex, Feb 17, 2016.

  1. AceTRaderForex

    AceTRaderForex Master Trader

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    AceTraderFx May 17: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

    [​IMG] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
    Update Time: 17 May 2019 09:30 GMT

    USD/JPY - 109.67
    Despite dollar's strong rebound from Mon's 3-month trough of 109.02 to 110.03 in Asian morning today, subsequent fall to 109.55 at European open on renewed U.S.-China trade tension suggests recovery has ended and price would head to 109.15/16 after range trading.

    On the upside, only a daily close above 110.05 would risk gain towards 110.28/32, then possibly 110.60/70.

    On the data front, U.S. will release a slew of eco. data (please see our EI page for details). Also we have a number of Fed officials speaking in New York session later (see EI page for details).
     
  2. AceTRaderForex

    AceTRaderForex Master Trader

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    AceTraderFx May 20: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

    [​IMG] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
    Update Time: 20 May 2019 05:30 GMT

    EUR/USD - 1.1166
    Euro's resumption of decline from last week's 1.1265 high (Mon) to an 11-day trough of 1.1155 on Friday due to usd's strength after upbeat U.S. consumer confidence suggests downside bias remains, however, as price is likely to remain confined inside recent broad range of 1.1265-1.1135, only below lower level would yield re-test of April's 22-month bottom at 1.1112.

    On the upside, above 1.1200 would add credence to consolidative outlook and would head back to 1.1225, then later 1.1241/46.

    On the data front, Germany will kick off with PPI, then the EU will release current account. ECB's Chief Economist will speak at an event in London at 08:00GMT n Germany's ECONMIN Altmaier will speak at an economic forum in Brandenburg at 11:30GMT.
     
  3. AceTRaderForex

    AceTRaderForex Master Trader

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    AceTraderFx May 21: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

    [​IMG] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
    Update Time: 21May 2019 05:30 GMT

    EUR/USD - 1.1166
    Despite euro's resumption of decline from last week's 1.1265 high (Mon) to a 2-week low of 1.1151 yesterday, as price is likely to remain confined inside recent broad range of 1.1265-1.1135, indicated lower level would hold and yield rebound.

    Above 1.1184 would bring gain to 1.1200, break there adds credence to consolidative outlook and would head back towards 1.1225. Only below 1.1135 risks weakness towards 1.1112.

    Eco. calendar in the euro area countries is thin today with EU consumer confidence being the only data due out in New York morning. However, we have ECB's Hakkarainen n ECB's Vice President Guindos speaking in European morning.
     
  4. AceTRaderForex

    AceTRaderForex Master Trader

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    AceTraderFx May 21: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

    [​IMG] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
    Update Time: 21 May 2019 09:30 GMT

    USD/JPY - 110.12
    Although dollar has retreated after Monday's rise to a 1-week high at 110.32 in Asia, as 109.81 (New York) has contained weakness, upside bias is retained for recent upmove from last Monday's 3-month trough at 109.02 to resume and extend to 110.50/60 before prospect of decline due to loss of momentum, below 109.50 would bring re-test of 109.02.

    On the upside, only above 110.70 would risk stronger gain towards 111.05.

    Market has shown muted reaction to early comments by Fed's J. Powell. U.S. will release Redbook sales, existing home sales in New York morning. Also we have Fed's Evans n Fed's Rosengren speaking later today.
     
  5. AceTRaderForex

    AceTRaderForex Master Trader

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    AceTraderFx May 22: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

    [​IMG] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
    Update Time: 22 May 2019 05:30 GMT

    EUR/USD - 1.1165
    Despite falling to a marginal 2-week low of 1.1142 (Europe), euro's intra-day cable-led brief bounce to 1.1188 in New York suggests price would 'gyrate' inside recent 1.1265-1.1135 broad range and a daily close above said Tuesday's high would add credence to this consolidative view and would head back to 1.1265, however, reckon 1.1265 would cap upside.

    Below 1.1135 any time would risk re-test of April's 22-month bottom at 1.1112, break there would extend Medium Term downtrend to 1.1060/70 later this week.

    Data to be released on Wednesday :

    New Zealand retail sales, Japan machinery orders, exports, imports, trade balance, UK CPI, RPI, PPI input prices, PPI output prices, PSNB, PSNCR, U.S. MBA mortgage application, FOMC minutes, and Canada retail sales.
     
  6. AceTRaderForex

    AceTRaderForex Master Trader

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    AceTraderFx May 22: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

    [​IMG] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
    Update Time: 22 May 2019 09:30 GMT

    USD/JPY - 110.39
    Dollar's rally from 110.07 in Europe to a 2-week high at 110.67 in New York on broad-based gains in U.S. stocks yesterday suggests recent upmove from last Monday's 3-month trough of 109.02 has resumed and further gain to 110.85/95 would be seen after consolidation, however, reckon 111.05 should hold and yield retreat.

    Below 110.07 would indicate temporary top made and extend weakness towards 109.81.
    Above 110.05 risks gain to 111.35/38.

    U.S. calendar is very thin with MBA mortgage applications being the only data due out ahead of release of FOMC minutes at 18:00GMT. We have a number of Fed officials delivering speeches today (see EI page for details).
    For Asian traders, pay attention to a club lunch speech titled "The U.S. Economy and Monetary Policy" by St. Louis Fed President James Bullard (voting member) who is speaking at The Foreign Correspondents' Club in Hong Kong at 05:00GMT.
     
  7. AceTRaderForex

    AceTRaderForex Master Trader

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    AceTraderFx May 23: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

    [​IMG] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
    Update Time: 23 May 2019 05:30 GMT

    EUR/USD - 1.1150

    Despite falling to a marginal 2-week low of 1.1142 on Tue, subsequent brief bounce to 1.1188 and yesterday's sideways swings in directionless trading suggests price would 'gyrate' inside recent 1.1265-1.1135 broad range and a daily close above said Tuesday's high would add credence to this consolidative view and would head back to 1.1265, however, reckon 1.1265 would cap upside.

    Below 1.1135 any time would risk re-test of Apr's 22-month bottom at 1.1112, break there would extend MT downtrend to 1.1060/70 later this week.

    Data to be released on Thursday :
    Australia manufacturing PMI, services PMI, Japan Nikkei manufacturing PMI.
    France business climate, Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, Germany GDP, Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, Ifo business climate, Ifo current conditions, Ifo expectations, Swiss industrial production, EU Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI.
    Canada wholesale trade, and U.S. building permits, initial jobless claims, Markit manufacturing PMI, Markit services PMI, new home sales, KC Fed manufacturing index.
     
  8. AceTRaderForex

    AceTRaderForex Master Trader

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    AceTraderFx May 23: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

    [​IMG] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
    Update Time: 23 May 2019 09:30 GMT

    USD/JPY - 110.25
    Despite dollar's resumption of upmove from May's 3-month trough at 109.02 to a 2-week high of 110.67 on Tuesday, subsequent retreat to 110.13 in Asia today suggests temporary top is possibly made n consolidation with downside bias remains for weakness to 109.45/50 but 109.15/16 should hold and yield rebound.

    On the upside, only above 110.67 would risk one more rise towards 111.90/00 before retreat.

    U.S. will release a slew of eco. data starting with weekly jobless claims, building permits, Markit mfg and services PMIs, new home sales and Kansas City Fed Mfg index. We also have a number of Fed officials speaking during New York session (please refer to EI page for details).
     
  9. AceTRaderForex

    AceTRaderForex Master Trader

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    AceTraderFx May 24: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

    [​IMG] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
    Update Time: 24 May 2019 05:30 GMT

    EUR/USD - 1.1178
    Despite euro's intra-day brief break of previous 2019 low at 1.1112 to a 2-year trough of 1.1108, subsequent impressive rally to 1.1187 due to usd's broad-based weakness on initial selloff in U.S. stocks and falling yields suggests temporary bottom is in place and 1-2 days of choppy consolidation with upside bias is in store.

    Above this week's 1.1188 high (Tuesday) would bring stronger retracement to 1.1225, however, near term o/bot condition should cap price below May's peak at 1.1265.

    Data to be released on Friday :
    New Zealand imports, trade balance, exports, Japan national CPI, UK retail sales, CBI distributive trades, and U.S. durable goods, durables ex-transport, durables ex-defense.
     
  10. AceTRaderForex

    AceTRaderForex Master Trader

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    AceTraderFx May 24: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

    [​IMG] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
    Update Time: 24 May 2019 09:30 GMT

    USD/JPY - 109.56
    Although dollar has recovered to 109.75 in Asian morning after yesterday's selloff, subsequent retreat suggests pullback has ended and recent decline from Tuesday's 110.67 would resume and bring re-test of May's 3-month bottom at 109.02, where break would extend fall from April's 112.39 high to 108.50.

    On the upside, only above 110.07 would prolong choppy trading and risk retracement towards 110.32/37.

    U.S. will release Apr durable goods order at 12:30GMT and no speech is scheduled by Fed officials. T.G.I.F.
     
  11. AceTRaderForex

    AceTRaderForex Master Trader

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    AceTraderFx May 27: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

    [​IMG] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
    Update Time: 27 May 2019 05:30 GMT

    EUR/USD - 1.1210
    Although euro's resumption of near term upmove from last Thursday's 2-year bottom at 1.1108 to 1.1212 Friday due to broad-based usd's weakness confirms Medium Term downtrend has made a temporary low, o/bot condition should prevent strong gain today and reckon previous res 1.1265 (April's high) would cap upside and yield retreat later today or tomorrow.

    On the downside, only below sup area at 1.1173/79 signals 1st leg of correction is over and yields retracement to 1.1145/55 before prospect of rebound.

    No eco. data is due out from the euro area, so order flows will have a greater impart to intra-day price swings. ECB's Coeure will be delivering a speech organised by BIS in Basel, Switzerland.
     
  12. AceTRaderForex

    AceTRaderForex Master Trader

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    AceTraderFx May 27: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

    [​IMG] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
    Update Time: 27 May 2019 09:30 GMT

    USD/JPY - 109.54
    Dollar's selloff from last Tuesday's near 2-week high at 110.67 to 109.28 Friday suggests early correction from May's 3-month low at 109.02 has ended, subsequent rebound would bring range trading before prospect of another fall and below 109.02 would extend decline April's 112.39 high to 108.82/87, however, reckon 108.50 sup should hold.

    On the upside, only a daily close above 109.75 would indicate temporary bottom made and risk retracement towards 110.07/10.

    Data to be released today:
    Japan coincident index, leading economic index, Swiss non-farm payrolls, UK market holiday, and U.S. market holiday on Monday.
     
  13. AceTRaderForex

    AceTRaderForex Master Trader

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    AceTraderFx May 28: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

    [​IMG] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
    Update Time: 28 May 2019 06:00 GMT

    EUR/USD - 1.1195
    Despite extending near term upmove from last Thursday's 2-year bottom at 1.1108 to 1.1215 (Asia) yesterday, subsequent retreat to 1.1187 after reports the EC may fine Italy for exceeding its debt level suggests 1st leg of correction has ended and range trading is in store.

    As long as 1.1155 holds, gain to 1.1225/35 is seen but res at 1.1265 should cap upside.
    Only below 1.1155 may risk weakness to 1.1115/20.

    On the data front, Germany will kick off with Gfk copnsumer confidence and import prices, France's consumer confidence, Italy's trade balance, the followed by EU's consumer confidence, business climate, eco. sentiment, industrial and services sentiment.
     
  14. AceTRaderForex

    AceTRaderForex Master Trader

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    AceTraderFx May 28: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

    [​IMG] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
    Update Time: 28 May 2019 09:30 GMT

    USD/JPY - 109.30
    Dollar's intra-day retreat from 109.63 in Asia suggests recovery from last Friday's 109.28 low has ended and below said sup would bring re-test of May's 3-month trough of 109.02, break would extend decline from 2019 peak at 112.39 (April) to 108.82/87, however, reckon 108.50 sup should hold.

    On the upside, only above 109.75 would risk stronger retracement towards 109.90/00 before retreat.

    Data to be released on Tuesday :
    Swiss GDP, trade balance, exports, imports, Germany GfK consumer sentiment, import prices, France consumer confidence, Italy trade balance, UK BBA mortgage approvals, EU business climate, economic sentiment, industrial sentiment, services sentiment, consumer confidence.
    U.S. monthly home price, CS home price, consumer confidence, Dallas Fed manufacturing business index.
     
  15. AceTRaderForex

    AceTRaderForex Master Trader

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    AceTraderFx May 29: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

    [​IMG] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
    Update Time: 29 May 2019 05:30 GMT

    Update Time: 29 May 2019 01:17 GMT
    EUR/USD - 1.1169
    Euro's decline to 1.1160 in New York yesterday after upbeat U.S. consumer confidence suggests the 1st leg of correction from last Thursday's 2-year bottom at 1.1108 has ended at 1.1215 (Monday) and 1-2 days of choppy sideways swings are in store before prospect of another rise to 1.1225 but loss on momentum should cap price below res at 1.1265.

    Only below 1.1224 signals correction is over, then risk would shift to the downside for re-test of 1.1108 and later towards projected target at 1.1054.

    Data to be released on Wednesday :
    New Zealand NBNZ business outlook, NBNZ own activity, UK BRC shop price index, Germany unemployment change, unemployment rate, France consumer spending, GDP, CPI, producer prices, Swiss KOF indicator, investor sentiment, Italy business confidence.
    U.S. redbook, Richmond Fed manufacturing index, Fed's beige book, and Canada Bank of Canada interest rate decision.
     
  16. AceTRaderForex

    AceTRaderForex Master Trader

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    AceTraderFx May 30: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

    [​IMG] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
    Update Time: 30 May 2019 05:30 GMT

    EUR/USD - 1.1140
    Although euro's decline from 1.1215 (Mon) to 1.1124 yesterday's due to market concerns on Italy's clash with the European Commission over its debt level suggests early correction from last Thursday's 2-year bottom at 1.1108 has ended, below said sup is needed to extend MT downtrend towards next projected target at 1.1054 next week.

    On the upside, a daily close above 1.1160 would 'prolong' choppy trading above said 2019 bottom, then risk would shift to the upside for another rise towards 1.1215.

    Data to be released on Thursday :
    New Zealand building permits, Australia capital expenditure, building capex.
    Swiss market holiday, UK nationwide house price.
    U.S. GDP, PCE, trade balance, wholesale inventories, initial jobless claims, pending home sales, and Canada current account, average weekly earnings
     
  17. AceTRaderForex

    AceTRaderForex Master Trader

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    AceTraderFx May 30: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

    [​IMG] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
    Update Time: 30 May 2019 09:30 GMT

    USD/JPY - 109.72
    Despite dollar's resumption of recent decline from last Tuesday's 110.67 to a 2-week low at 109.15 in Asia yesterday, subsequent strong rebound due to recovery in U.S. stocks in New York, then intra-day break of 109.75 res to 109.83 in Europe suggests temporary low made and retracement towards 110.26/37 may be seen before prospect of retreat.

    On the downside, only below 109.48 would indicate recovery has ended and yield 109.15 again, break would bring re-test of May's 3-month bottom of 109.02.

    On the data front, pay attention to release of U.S. Qi GDP, core PCE,, weekly jobless claims, goods trade balance, whole inventories n pending home sales. Also, we have Fed's Vice Chairman Clarida speaking at the Economic Club of NY at 16:00GMT.
     
  18. AceTRaderForex

    AceTRaderForex Master Trader

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    AceTraderFx May 31: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

    [​IMG] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
    Update Time: 31 May 2019 05:30 GMT

    EUR/USD - 1.1138
    Although euro's fall from this week's high at 1.1265 (Monday) to as low as 1.1116 in New York on Thursday suggests early correction from May's 2-year bottom at 1.1108 has ended, below 1.1100/08 sup area needed to extend recent downtrend to projected downside target at 1.1054 next week.

    On the upside, a daily close above 1.1160 would 'prolong' choppy sideways swings above 1.1108 and yield another rise to 1.1200/10 but res at 1.1225 would cap upside.

    The euro area countries will release a slew of eco. data, pls refer to our EI page for details.
     
  19. AceTRaderForex

    AceTRaderForex Master Trader

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    AceTraderFx Jun 03: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

    [​IMG] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
    Update Time: 03 Jun 2019 05:30 GMT

    EUR/USD - 1.1179
    Euro's intra-day gain to 1.1181 on Friday due to broad-based weakness in usd on falling U.S. yields and stocks suggests further choppy trading above May's 2-year bottom at 1.1108 would continue with upside bias for stronger gain to 1.1215/25.
    However, break there is needed to retain bullishness for subsequent headway to 1.1240/50.

    Only a daily close below 1.1138 (New York low) dampens bullish view and risks weakness towards 1.1116 but 1.1108 should remain intact.

    Today is PMI day in the euro area countries, Italy will kick off with Markit mfg PMI, then the same from France, Germany and the EU, if these PMI readings come out higher than market estimates, then euro will extend Friday's gain, if not, expect a minor pullback before prospect of another rise later in the day.
     
  20. AceTRaderForex

    AceTRaderForex Master Trader

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    AceTraderFx Jun 03: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

    [​IMG] DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
    Update Time: 03 Jun 2019 09:30 GMT

    USD/JPY - 108.25
    Dollar's selloff on Friday due to safe-haven yen buying after U.S. President Trump threatened to raise Mexico's tariffs and then break of previous May's 109.02 low to a fresh 4-1/2 month trough at 108.07 in Asia today suggests medium term decline from April's 112.39 high would extend to 107.30 after consolidation.

    On the upside, only above 109.02 would confirm temporary bottom made and risk retracement towards 109.30/40.

    Data to be released today:
    Swiss CPI, manufacturing PMI, Italy manufacturing PMI, France manufacturing PMI, Germany manufacturing PMI, EU manufacturing PMI, EU manufacturing PMI, UK manufacturing PMI.
    Canada manufacturing PMI, U.S. manufacturing PMI, construction spending and ISM manufacturing PMI on Monday.
     

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