AceTraderFx : Daily Recommendations on Major

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Feb 27: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 27 Feb 2018 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 107.02
The greenback's break of last Friday's low at 106.51 to 106.38 yesterday strongly suggests correction from February's 15-month peak at 105.55 has ended at 107.90 last Wednesday and choppy trading with downside bias would be seen for weakness towards 106.20/24, however, near term loss of momentum would keep price above 106.10 today and yield a rebound later.

On the upside, only above 107.28 would indicate pullback from 107.90 has ended instead and turn outlook bullish for gain towards 107.50/60.

Key focus today is the first ever Congressional testimony by the newly appointed the Fed's Chairman Jerome Powell before the U.S. House of Representatives' Financial Services Committee at 15:00GMT, however, Powell's prepared remarks to the House will be released earlier at 13:30GMT, so stay tune and be nimble and be quick when the text is out n quickly read the topics on U.S. economic outlook n future Fed's rate hikes.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Feb 28: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 28 Feb 2018 06:00 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2236
Yesterday's selloff from 1.2346 (Europe) and then intra-day break of last week's low at 1.2260 to 1.2221 after hawkish testimony by new Fed Chairman J. Powell confirms euro's decline from Feb's fresh 3-year peak at 1.2555 has finally resumed and re-test of 1.2206 target (February low) is now envisaged after consolidation.
However, a daily close below there needed to retain bearishness for subsequent weakness towards 1.2166.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.2260 would be the 1st signal temporary low is in place, then risk would shift to the upside for stronger retracement to 1.2300/10.

Data out on Wednesday :
U.K. Gfk consumer confidence, Germany Gfk consumer confidence, unemployment change, unemployment rate, Swiss UBS consumption indicator, KOF indicator, ZEW investor sentiment, France consumer spending, GDP, CPI, producer prices, Italy CPI, EU CPI, core CPI.
U.S. MBA mortgage application, GDP annualized, GDP deflator, Core PCE prices, PCE prices, Chicago PMI, pending home sales, and Canada producer prices

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Mar 01: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 01 Mar 2018 06:00 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2192
Despite euro's break of previous February's 1.2206 low to a 5-week trough of 1.2184 in Asia today, near term weakening of downward momentum is likely to prevent steep fall.
Reckoning 1.2136 would contain weakness today which bring a much-needed correction to 1.2230/40 but 1.2260 (last week's low, now res) should cap rebound and yield another fall.

Only below 1.2136 would extend recent decline from 1.2555 towards next downside obj. at 1.2093 (2017 peak) next week.

Today is PMI day in the euro area countries, Italy will release Markit manufacturing PMI, then the same by France, Germany n the EU, however, market attention is on the U.S. core PCE data in New York morning.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Mar 02: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 02 Mar 2018 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2276
Despite yesterday's anticipated resumption of recent decline from February's 1.2555 peak to a 7-week trough of 1.2155, subsequent rally due to broad-based usd's weakness on fear of global trade war following news of Trump would impose tariffs on U.S. steel and AL imports suggests long-awaited correction of aforesaid fall has occurred and consolidation with upside bias is seen.
However, reckon res at 1.2355 (this week's high on Monday) should cap present rise.

On the downside, only below 1.2222 signals 1st leg of correction is over and may risk stronger pullback to 1.2190/00 before prospect of another rise next week.

Euro area countries will release a slew of eco. data during European morning (pls refer to EI section for details) n ECB Board member Mersch will give a speech at a financial conference in Prague at 08:10GMT.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Mar 02: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 02 Mar 2018 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 105.79
The greenback's selloff from 107.20 to 106.17 yesterday and then intra-day break of this support confirms correction from February's 15-month trough at 105.55 has ended at 107.90 earlier and choppy trading with downside bias would be seen for medium-term decline to resume and yield re-test of said support, break would extend to 105.00/10 before prospect of a much-needed correction later.

On the upside, only above 106.55 would abort daily bearish outlook and risk stronger gain towards 107.20 before prospect of another retreat early next week.

Data to be released on Friday:
Germany retail sales, Italy GDP, U.K. Markit construction PMI, EU PPI, Canada GDP, GDP annualized.
U.S. ISM New York index, University of Michigan Sentiment

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Mar 05: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 05 Mar 2018 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2330
Despite extending Fri's gain to 1.2365 in Australia today, intra-day strong retreat to 1.2300 ahead of Tokyo open following news of Italian election has delivered a hung parliament result suggests upmove from last Thursday's 7-week bottom at 1.2155 has made a temporary top and choppy sideways swings are in store, as long as 1.2288 holds, marginal gain is still envisaged but 1.2412/15 res should remain intact.

On the downside, below 1.2288 would risk stronger retracement of aforesaid rise towards 1.2252 before prospect of a rebound later today or tomorrow.

On the eco. data front, today is PMI day in the euro area countries, Italy will kick off with Markit servcies PMI, then the sale fm France, Germany n the EU, EU will later release Sentix investor confidence index n retail sales.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Mar 06: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 06 Mar 2018 06:10 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2356
Euro's rebound from 1.2269 (Europe) to 1.2349 in New York suggests pullback from yesterday's 10-day high at 1.2365 has ended and early upmove from last Thursday's 7-week trough at 1.2155 would resume after consolidation, near term loss of upward momentum may cap price at 1.2412/15.

On the downside, only a firm break below 1.2300 would prolong choppy sideways swings and may risk another retreat towards 1.2269 before prospect of another rebound later today or tomorrow.

Data to be released on Tuesday :
Australia retail sales, RBA interest rate decision, RBA rate statement, New Zealand GDT price index.
Swiss CPI, U.K. BRC retail sales.
U.S. redbook, durable goods order ex-defence, durable goods order, factory orders, durable goods order ex-transportation, and Canada Ivey PMI.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Mar 07: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 01 Mar 2018 06:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2411
Euro's intra-day brief rise above Tuesday's 1.2420 high on broad-based usd's weakness following news of resignation of U.S. top economic advisor Cohn suggests upmove from last Thursday's 7-week trough at 1.2155 would resume after consolidation.
However, near term loss of upward momentum is likely to prevent strong gain and 1.2475/80 may cap upside.

On the downside, below 1.2365 would be the 1st signal aforesaid rise has made a temp. top and risk stronger retracement to 1.2323/29 sup area before prospect of rebound.

At 12:15GMT, the Chairman of EU leaders Donald Tusk will present draft guidelines on what the bloc would likely to see in a trade agreement with the U.K. after Britain leaves in 2019. Cable and eur/gbp cross will definitely react when he speaks, so pay attention to his statement.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Mar 08: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 08 Mar 2018 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2409
Expect initial sideways trading ahead of ECB's rate decision and subsequent press conference.
As euro has edged higher after yesterday's retreat from an 11-day high of 1.2444 to 1.2385, outlook remains mildly bullish for recent upmove from 2.2155 to extend marginal gain, loss of upward momentum is likely to cap price at 1.2500/10.

Only a daily close below 1.2385 confirms temporary top is in place and risks stronger retracement to 1.2323/29 sup area before prospect of rebound.

Data to be released on Thursday:
New Zealand manufacturing sales, Japan current account, GDP, GDP deflator, Eco watchers current, Eco watchers outlook, Australia trade balance, imports, exports, China exports, imports, trade balance.
Swiss unemployment rate, Germany industrial orders, U.K. RICS housing price balance, EU ECB interest rate decision, ECB deposit rate decision.
Canada housing start, building permits, and U.S. initial jobless claims

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Mar 09: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 09 Mar 2018 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2304
Despite euro's brief jump to a fresh 2-1/2 week high of 1.2446 on market reaction to ECB's removal of its usual easing bias statement, subsequent selloff during Draghi's press conference to as low as 1.2299 suggests early rally from last Thursday's 7-week trough at 1.2155 has made a top and choppy trading with downside bias is seen ahead of key U.S. jobs data.

As long 1.2365/70 holds, further weakness is envisaged but reckon 1.2222 would hold on 1st testing. Only a daily close above 1.2400 would bring re-test of 1.2446 next week.

Data to be released on Friday:
New Zealand retail sales, China PPI, CPI, Japan BoJ interest rate decision, machine tool orders.
Germany industrial output, current account, exports, imports, France budget balance, industrial output, U.K. construction output, industrial output, manufacturing output, trade balance non-EU, NIESR GDP estimate, EU trade balance, employment.
U.S. non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate, average earnings, wholesale inventories, wholesale sales, and Canada employment change, unemployment rate

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Mar 09: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 09 Mar 2018 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 106.73
Despite the greenback's selloff last week and subsequent break of February's 15-month trough at 105.55 to 105.25 on Friday, subsequent strong rebound to 106.46 Tuesday and intra-day rise above this resistance suggests recent downtrend has made a temporary low there and choppy trading with upside bias would be seen for gain towards 107.10/20.
However, near term loss of momentum would keep price below 107.68/70 and yield correction.

On the downside, only below 105.89 would indicate aforesaid correction has ended and risk marginal weakness but aforesaid low should remain intact ahead of U.S. jobs report release.

Data out on Friday:
Germany industrial output, current account, exports, imports, France budget balance, industrial output, U.K. construction output, industrial output, manufacturing output, trade balance non-EU, NIESR GDP estimate, EU trade balance, employment.
U.S. non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate, average earnings, wholesale inventories, wholesale sales, and Canada employment change, unemployment rate

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Mar 12: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 12 Mar 2018 06:00 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2312
Despite extending decline from last Thur's 2-1/2 week high of 1.2446 (post-ECB top) to 1.2273 after release of robust U.S. payrolls (but tepid wage growth) Fri, subsequent rebound to 1.2334 on short-covering suggests temporary low has been made and expect range trading initially before said fall extends marginal weakness, loss of downward momentum should keep euro above 1.2222.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.2365 signals correction from 1.2446 has possibly ended and yield stronger gain to 1.2400/10.

Data out today:
Australia market holiday, Japan business survey index, machine tool orders, and U.S. Federal budget on Monday

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Mar 12: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 12 Mar 2018 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 106.59
Despite the greenback's selloff to a fresh 15-month trough at 105.25 in early March, subsequent strong rebound to 106.46 last Tuesday and then rise above this resistance to 107.05 last Friday suggests recent downtrend has made a temporary low there and choppy trading with upside bias would be seen for gain towards 107.10/20.
However, near term loss of momentum would keep price below 107.68/70 and yield correction.

On the downside, only below 105.89 would indicate aforesaid correction has ended and risk marginal weakness but aforesaid low should remain intact ahead of U.S. jobs report release.

No key U.S. eco. data is due out but pay attention to Tue's release of key Feb's core CPI. Until then, funds flow wud have a strg influence on intra-day price swings. The U.S. has moved its clock forward on Sun, so U.S. financial markets will open an hour earlier starting today.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Mar 13: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 13 Mar 2018 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2339
Despite euro's intra-day rise from 1.2291 to 1.2345 (New York) suggests decline from last Thursday's 2-1/2 week high at 1.2446 has made a temporary low at 1.2273 (post-NFP New York low) Friday and another day of choppy sideways swings are in store, reckon 1.2365/69 would cap present gain and yield subsequent fall, loss of downward momentum should keep price above 1.2222.

Only a daily close above 1.2400 suggests said pullback from 1.2446 has ended, then risk is seen for re-test of this level.

The only eco. data due out is France's non-farm payrolls. The Ecofin Council (ECOFIN) meeting starts today and will be attended by economics and finance ministers from all EU member states. EU Commissioner Moscovici and ECB VP Constancio will be speaking some time in the meeting.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Mar 14: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 14 Mar 2018 06:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2391
Yesterday's break above 1.2365/69 res to 1.2407 due to broad-based usd's weakness after Trump fired Sec. of State Tillerson suggests early correction from last Thursday's 2-1/2 week peak at 1.2446 has ended at 1.2273 (Friday) and consolidation with upside bias remains for gain towards 1.2446 but above needed to head to 1.2475/80 later.

Only below 1.2340/45 prolongs choppy trading below 1.2446 and risks stronger retracement to 1.2315.

Data to be released on Wednesday:
New Zealand current account, Australia consumer sentiment, Japan machinary orders, China industrial output, retail sales.
Germany CPI, HICP, Italy retail sales, EU industrial production.
U.S. MBA mortgage application, PPI, core PPI, retail sales, retail sales ex-autos, business inventories

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Mar 15: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 15 Mar 2018 06:00 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2381
Although yesterday's initial gain to 1.2413 suggests euro's correction from last Thursday's 2-1/2 week peak at 1.2446 has ended earlier at 1.2273 (Friday), subsequent retreat to 1.2347 in New York would bring sideways trading before prospect of another rise, above 1.2413 would encourage for gain towards 1.2446.

On the downside, only below 1.2347 dampens bullish bias and may risk stronger retracement to 1.2315 but reckon 1.2291 should contain weakness.

Data to be released on Thursday:
France CPI, Swiss producer import price, SNB interest rate decision, and U.S. initial jobless claims, New York Fed manufacturing index, import price, export price, Philadelphia Fed survey, NAHB housing market index

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Mar 16: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 16 Mar 2018 05:30 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2307
Yesterday's fall from 1.2384 (Asia) to as low as 1.2300, then 1.2295 in Asia today suggests erratic rise from last week's trough at 1.2273 has ended at 1.2413 (Wednesday) and choppy trading with downside bias remains for re-test of this level, break would extend early decline from March's 1.2446 peak towards 1.2222.

On the upside, only a daily close above 1.2347 'prolongs' recent choppy broad sideways swings and risks another rise towards 1.2384.

Euro area countries will release a slew of eco. data starting with Germany's WPI, then Italy's CPI n EU's final HICP n core HICP.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Mar 16: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 16 Mar 2018 09:30 GMT

USD/JPY - 105.68
The greenback's intra-day sharp retreat and subsequent break of yesterday's low at 105.79 confirms the correction from March's 15-month trough at 105.25 has ended at 107.29 earlier and consolidation with downside bias remains for medium-term decline to resume and yield re-test of said trough early next week, however, over sold condition would prevent steep fall below there and risk would increase for a much-needed recovery later.

On the upside, only above 106.42 would indicate a temporary low has been made instead, risk stronger retracement towards 106.86/90.

Data to be released on Friday:
Germany wholesale price index, Italy CPI, EU CPI, core CPI.
U.S. building permits, housing starts, industrial production, capacity utilization, JOLTS job openings, University of Michigan sentiment, and Canada manufacturing sales

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Mar 19: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 19 Mar 2018 06:00 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2281
Despite euro's weakness to a 2-week trough of 1.2260 on Friday, subsequent short-covering rebound would bring consolidation before recent 3-legged fall from March's 1.2446 peak heads to 1.2240/50, loss of downward momentum should keep price above 1.2220/25.

Only a daily close above 1.2300 signals temporary low is made and risks stronger retracement to 1.2336 but reckon 1.2384 res should cap upside.

We have a 2-day G20 meeting of FinMins n Central Bank Governors in Buenos Aires, Argentina, so keep a eye out on comments esp by the G7 officials. IN addition, we have several ECB members speaking during European time (see details from EI page).

On the data side, Germany will release Buba monthly report, Italy will release industrial output n trade balance, then followed by the same from the EU as well as construction output.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Mar 20: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK on Major
Update Time: 20 Mar 2018 06:00 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.2344
Euro's impressive rally from Mon's 2-week trough of 1.2258 (Europe) to as high as 1.2359 after report of ECB rate-hike talk suggests early erratic fall from Mar's high at 1.2446 has ended and upside bias is seen for further gain, however, as broad outlook remains consolidative ahead of FOMC announcement tomorrow, reckon 1.2413 would cap present rise.

Only a daily close below 1.2300 would shift risk to downside for another prove at 1.2258/60 sup.

Euro area countries will release a slew of eco. data starting with Germany's PPI, Germany's ZEW eco. sentiment n current conditions, then EU will release ZEW eco. sentiment. Later in NY morning, EU will release consumer confidence.